Just because you get a nice price doesn’t mean you oughta buy something. And it doesn’t mean that the thing you purchase will deliver utility commensurate with its cost.
That’s true for MLB teams considering free agents as much as online shoppers contemplating another splurge … except that ballclubs face a notable limitation in the form of roster rules. Teams can’t necessarily have that super-functional fanny pack and a designer handbag, at least without giving up some other much-needed accessory.
In baseball, especially, the gold standard isn’t cost-efficiency standing alone. It’s getting (at least) good value for a premium asset that fulfills a need.
Every so often, teams more or less luck into supreme value. The Tigers deserve credit for re-discovering J.D. Martinez, to be sure, but that’s also just an extremely good outcome on the sort of dice rolls that happen every winter on marginal roster pieces.
Even more rare is the sort of opportunity that arose last winter for the Brewers: a chance to pick up an already-acknowledged premium player at a position of need for an extremely appealing price in free agency. Entering the winter, we predicted Yasmani Grandal would command $64MM over four years — a set of numbers that would’ve been higher had it not been for his stunning issues in the postseason. Instead, the Brewers picked up Grandal’s age-30 season for a measly $18.25MM. (Some of that is deferred as the buyout on a mutual option, but there’s no realistic shot of that being exercised.)
That deal seemed like an exceptional value proposition for the Milwaukee club at the moment it was struck. Before the signing, the club was slated to go with Manny Pina and Erik Kratz. Sure, they only got one year, but that was an opportunity to add a nice chunk of his prime without taking on any long-term risk. There really isn’t even a premium on the cost versus the scenario we proposed; on any lengthy free-agent deal, a team reasonably anticipates much of the on-field to come on the front end.
It’s somewhat anticlimactic to say that … well, the deal is working out exactly as it was drawn up. He’s doing just what he has done before, and then some. Grandal is drawing a lot of walks while striking out at a palatable level and hitting for good power. With his hard-hit rate up early, Grandal is also maintaining a higher BABIP (.310) and batting average (.277) than usual.
The result on offense is a 133 wRC+. Grandal is on pace to set a personal-high in the long ball department, in no small part because he’s being run out in the lineup on a near-everyday basis. Since they aren’t obligated to him for the future, the Brewers don’t need to worry too much about long-term wear and tear. Of course, Grandal is also a strong defender. He continues to grade as a premium pitch framer. And he’s even running a little, having matched his single-season career-high with three stolen bases. Fangraphs’ BsR measure has long loathed Grandal’s work on the bases, but now views him as a neutral overall runner.
Grandal is well on his way to matching or exceeding the roughly 5 WAR annual level of play he sustained with the Dodgers. Getting that sort of player for a one-year deal at the qualifying offer price is kind of hard to believe. What even happened?
It certainly took somewhat unique circumstances for this deal to come together. Grandal turned down a substantial, multi-year offer that wasn’t to his liking. He also decided not to wait out a bigger contract at all costs, though waiting until early/mid-January to sign wasn’t exactly rushing into a deal. Even on a one-year scenario, this deal seemed like it came in cheap; the Braves spent $23MM in hopes of a bounceback year from an older player with a more significant injury history (but also more upside) in Josh Donaldson.
It’s fair to note that things are working out thus far for Grandal as well. He obviously preferred this approach. He ought to have every chance of securing a larger and longer contract if he so desires this winter.
Still, this contract was a fantasy scenario for the Brewers when the offseason started. And so far, the reality has exceeded the dream.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
It is a 1 year deal so it never looked bad from the start
If you read the title you would see that the writer doesn’t say it was ever bad. It says “even better”, which tells you he thought the contract was good to begin with.
It’s only one third into the season. Too early in my view to determine if it was good or bad. How many catchers presently are earning more in 2019.
Not really, it’s a 1 year contract that pertains little downside. To date of the qualified Cs, he’s been the 2nd best. It’s a completely better all around value than Ramos, and provided significantly more value than JTR when you take into all that was required. The only downside here is Grandal sustaining an injury due to the rough nature of catching. The only other thing to caution, is whether or not the Brewers can do what the Dodgers couldn’t and not overuse him to keep him fresh. His performance has suffered down the stretch each year as the bumps and bruises add up. Plus the money paid out is a significantly better bet than trying to find a impact qualified C come the trade deadline.
The Dodgers overused him? They started him in 121 games sat him often against LHP. At this point in the season the Brewers have given Grandal more PA’s than the Dodgers ever have. He’s always been a streaky hitter too. He started off hot, got cold for a couple months, got hot, got cold, then started to heat back up towards the end of the season. Look at his career monthly splits…the trend has always been there. What the Brewers need to do is not give him as long of a leash if get the yips behind the plate again.
He’s already been worth 2.5 wins, so he’s earned his money. Everything else the Brewers get is gravy.
Plus, Grandal is a catcher who regularly cannot catch the ball, whether it thrown from an infielder, outfielder or just a regular pitch. I couldn’t wait for him to be gone from the Dodgers.
22 I completely agree
His history suggests his second half suffers. Sort of like Brock Holt and Mitch Moreland on the Sox. Holt finally turned it on last year and Moreland was clutch in the playoffs despite being injured. I’ll change my assessment on Grandal if his second half is consistent with the first. Also whether or not he got qualifying money is irrelevant. No one thought he was worth it for multiple years and even with a strong second half, he won’t get it this off season either.
Games are won and lost on the field. in a team sport other than a game winning or saving play that can truly be measured, such stats are meaningless.
Ah yes, there it is. The Dodger fan who insists no matter what the stats say that Grandal is bad behind the plate. This article is now complete so we can shut it down and all go home.
Actually a LOT of brewer fans (and haters) thought it was a terrible signing. Because, in part, we had Kratz (who replaced Sogard as the feel good fan favorite).
So far, much proved as a RHB and also on the road. Figured(wrong) that all the production was r/t Miller Park.
*improved
He was good in before the All Star break every year for the Dodgers as well. Curious to revisit this come the postseason.
Always good in the first half, the swoon will appear soon. Let’s revisit his August and September numbers.
His swoon? You mean the 818 OPS he had in the second half last year? Ya, what ah bum.
They should have signed DK instead of wasting that much on a catcher. Just my opinion. They won’t win the division with the Starting staff they have and the bullpen they have, minus Hader.
That’s what everyone said last year too…
Upgrading catcher is also an upgrade to the pitching staff.
Wait until the 2nd half when he consistently grounds out weakly to 1st every at bat.
The Dodgers are doing just fine without him.
Ya, who needs that second half 818 OPS he had in the second half last year. I mean an 818 OPS is what every catcher does in the second half…right?
You are right his .226 avg 2nd half in 2018 and career .107 playoff avg sparked enough confidence for his manager to bench him in the playoffs, I stand corrected. Thank you for showing me the error in my ways
I remember when you only used average to asses a hitters value. First half last year he had a .350 OBP, .464 SLG and .814 OPS. Second half he had a .349 OBP, .469 SLG and .818 OPS. He hit 13 HR in 263 at bats in the first half and 11 in 177 2nd half.
David Sterns has shown he wants a serious bat in all 8 lineup positions and is willing to give up a bit of defense to achieve that. Grandal has been a little weaker as a receiver than we’d been led to believe but it’s a league full of so-so receivers who can throw and pitch-frame. But if he needs a breather more often in the second half Manny Pina served well as the everyday catcher most of the last two years and first base is crying for someone who can hit in that spot.
Average catcher behind the plate at best. I can name 5 catchers better than him. Two of them are in the NL Central
Sure you can. It won’t be backed by anything, but with a name like ElMagoN9ne, I bet you would never let something as insignificant as stats get in your way.
You can name Realmuto and then potentially Sanchez and Contreras. That’s probably it. He’s far from average.
Grandal has historically been a very streaky hitter. We saw periods of similar performance from him as a Dodger but it was never sustained over the course of an entire season.
So what do YOU think of thr 818 OPS he had in last years second half?
I think it earned him a seat on the bench in the postseason in favor of Austin Barnes who couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a boat.