The Cubs made a rare June free-agent splash Wednesday when they agreed to a three-year, $43MM contract with potential Hall of Fame closer Craig Kimbrel. The 31-year-old entered the offseason as the premier reliever available, but interest in Kimbrel was surprisingly tepid and he wound up having to wait seven months for a contract. Kimbrel still hauled in the richest deal of any reliever going back to the opening of free agency last offseason, though that doesn’t make him a lock to thrive as a Cub.
As you’ll see below, all six accomplished relievers who collected at least $20MM over the winter have shown some troubling signs a couple months into the 2019 campaign. Although it’s way too early to pass judgment in any of these cases, it doesn’t augur well when a player’s not performing as expected at the start of his deal. After all, that’s when he’s supposed to be providing his team maximum value.
Zack Britton, LHP, Yankees (three years, $39MM):
Arguably the game’s foremost reliever with the Orioles from 2014-16, injuries helped lead to a bit of a drop-off for Britton over the ensuing two seasons with the O’s and Yankees. That didn’t stop New York from re-signing Britton on the costliest pact any reliever received in the offseason, though, and he has handed them solid results in Year 1 of the contract. The 31-year-old owns a 2.96 ERA/3.60 FIP in 27 1/3 innings thus far. The sinker-throwing Britton’s tremendous groundball rate (75 percent) is right in line with his recent totals, and he’s generating more strikeouts and issuing fewer walks than he did a year ago. On the negative side, the home run woes that began plaguing Britton in 2018 have stuck around. He’s yielding HRs on 25 percent of fly balls for the second straight season.
Jeurys Familia, RHP, Mets (three years, $30MM):
Familia surrendered three earned runs in 2/3 of an inning last Saturday and then sat for almost a week before taking the mound again Thursday. The previously reliable righty, who dealt with shoulder troubles earlier in the season, has now logged a horrid 6.29 ERA/5.26 FIP in 23 1/3 frames. A significant drop in strikeouts and swinging strikes and a sizable spike in walks and homers haven’t helped, though Familia’s inducing plenty of grounders and continuing to throw in the 96 mph range. The 29-year-old’s batting average on balls in play against (.338), strand rate (66.2), and enormous gap between his weighted on-base average/xwOBA against (.383/.321) indicate he has deserved better. However, it’s doubtful any of that is of much consolation to him or the Mets at this point.
Andrew Miller, LHP, Cardinals (two years, $25MM):
While Miller was a dominant force with the Red Sox, Orioles, Yankees and Indians from 2012-17, he endured an injury-limited, down year with the Tribe in ’18 and still hasn’t returned to form. The towering southpaw has given the Cardinals 20 2/3 innings of 3.92 ERA/5.48 FIP since scoring his contract. Miller is striking out upward of 12 hitters per nine, but he’s walking more than four at the same time (remember, his BB/9 was barely over 1.00 as recently as 2016). The 34-year-old has also already yielded almost as many HRs (five) as he did in 2017-18 combined (six). The good news is that Miller has allowed a mere two earned runs since April 27.
Adam Ottavino, RHP, Yankees (three years, $25MM):
Ottavino’s preventing runs at an elite clip through 28 1/3 frames as a Yankee, having posted a 1.27 ERA so far. However, there are some red flags with the ex-Rockie’s performance. Ottavino’s strikeout, swinging-strike, walk, chase and contact rates have gone in discouraging directions since last season, while his 96.4 percent strand rate isn’t going to hold. There’s not a huge difference between the wOBA (.264) and xwOBA (.276) hitters have mustered against the slider-reliant 33-year-old this season, but both numbers fall short of Ottavino’s .231/.233 combo from 2018.
Joe Kelly, RHP, Dodgers (three years, $25MM):
The flamethrowing Kelly has allowed at least two earned runs in five of 20 appearances, giving him an unsightly 7.91 ERA/5.18 FIP across 19 1/3 innings this season. Kelly’s walks and grounders have trended well thus far, but he has already allowed as many home runs (four) as he did last season – his final year with the Red Sox. The 30-year-old has also seen his swinging-strike rate fall by more than 3 percent and his contact rate climb by a hefty 8 percent since 2018.
David Robertson, RHP, Phillies (two years, $23MM):
Robertson entered 2019 as one of the best, most durable relievers in recent memory, yet he has been neither effective nor healthy in the first season of his contract. The 34-year-old coughed up four earned runs on eight hits and six walks (against six strikeouts) in 6 2/3 innings before going to the 10-day injured list April 16 with a flexor strain in his right elbow. Robertson moved to the 60-day IL on May 25, meaning he won’t return until at least midway through this month.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
IS there even a use in FIP for an extreme ground ball pitcher like Britton? When you get 75% of your balls put in play being of the ground ball variety I don’t think FIP is a worth a damn for him. Obviously for a large % of guys it’s certainly a more relevant metric but for an extreme ground ball guy like Britton I see very little merit in it. That’s the calculation for anyone who is unaware.
FIP = ((13*HR)+(3*(BB+HBP))-(2*K))/IP + constant
Agreed. Sometimes the advanced stats don’t make sense on the extreme edges. They often are built through heavy statistical regression that tells a good story for most but is less valuable for outliers.
While I agree with your general premise I don’t think that Britton is the poster boy for why FIP doesn’t work. Through his career his FIP and ERA are pretty darn close. Year to year the correlation isn’t strong. In the aggregate though they tell a similar story.
Britton isn’t the poster boy for why FIP doesn’t work – he’s the poster boy for why it doesn’t work for him.
You said so yourself, he’s on the extreme edge.
His career FIP number is much closer to his ERA than I’d imagine but that could simply be nothing but a coincidence in this case. And the higher ERA comes from his days as a SP. As a reliever his his FIP has always been higher than his ERA. And given the variables behind the formula that comes as no surprise to me.
So…You think he is not paid enough? He is not utilized enough? What is your real complaint?
Seems like the person is just having a discussion about the potential shortcomings of FIP. No complaint about Britton.
Do I need to have a complaint to have a discussion about FIP? I’m not asking for you to partake if you’re not interested. Britton was mentioned with a FIP attached to his numbers and I felt like sharing my thoughts.
Good points you make…..
Good sharing. Thanks. Made sense.
FIP is a questionable stat, in that pitching is not independent of fielding.
I feel like you don’t have to look far past k/9 bb/9 era and innings pitched to tell how good a pitcher is. Just my opinion though.
ERA is worse than FIP. ERA is dependent on the fielding of a team regardless of pitching ability.
Lol Andrew Miller…hey cards fans look whos your competition for a wild card? P.s. The pads are just getting started, you guys are flailing.
I’m not sure why I’m replying to a troll, especially since I’m not even a Cards fan. But, while Miller hasn’t been very good he also hasn’t been terrible, and he is only on a two-year 25m contract so it’s not like it’s devastating to the team now or in the future. Putting aside the up to a decade long commitment and around half a billion more in salary, I could make a similar statement about Meyers, Hosmer, and Machado; none have been great but, then again, none of them have been trash. Your team has a bright future, but they haven’t won jack in the past and they might not win jack in the near future, at least Cards fans have memories, and quite a few recent ones, of actually being successful.
Ouch!
Sometimes I read these articles and all the different types of ways to evaluate a pitcher, and I simply look to how many runs they’re giving up – because that at the end of the day is what matters.
Walked 3? No runs given up, still got the save/win? That’s what counts.
If you continue to walk three every time out, the likelihood that you will continue to get the win isn’t great. But hey, roll with Johnny Walkthepark, see how that holds up.
It worked for Brad Lidge in 2008.
Well, if it worked for Lidge in ’08, better stock the pen with wild flamethrowers. What can go wrong?
For all the “optics” experts on here spouting off about how Ottavino was not as good as his numbers indicated in 2018 forgot one major factor:
He left Colorado.
That’s along with a clear head will make you exponentially better. Pitching at Coors is a physical, mental and psychological grind that is very difficult for one human to overcome.
I don’t recall hearing that about ottavino. His FiP, xFIP, and SIERA all largely supported his performance. He walks too many guys and he still does. He certainly isn’t a 1.27 ERA pitcher for the long haul. Nobody is walking over 6 batters per 9.
Kelly was one of those signings could have been avoided had team(s) paid any attention to the regular season games and not been blinded by the playoffs, just like with another useless signing several years before by the name of Pablo Sandovol..
Teams ignore (sometimes) how possibly out of shape (Sandoval) a player constantly is, or how off and on a guy is (kelly), to what a wild hacker (Sandoval) and give out wild, crazy contracts based on just a few games in the national spotlight.
Why?? Don’t they have people watching these guys all season long?
I dont think they signed Kelly based off the WS but the same argument can be made it worked for the Nats and Daniel Murphy.
When the Nats signed Murphy he’d been a consistently and solidly above-average regular season player for years. OTOH when Kelly was signed by the Dodgers he’d been a solidly mediocre player for years, with only one year of true excellence as an exception, at least in the regular season. Nobody could probably have predicted he’d be as godawful as he’s been so far this season but nobody should have realistically expected him to recreate his one good season either. I am still mystified by what Friedman saw in the guy that convinced him Kelly was the player to fill such a key roster hole.
Kelly is as good of a team mate and club house guy as it’s possible to have. A jokester and chatty guy who can keep a team lose, regardless of whether or not he’s pitching good, or bad and that goes into his favor.
What is negative is his ability to lose all command of the strike zone and also.. Fall in love with his secondaries, then fall behind every batter and have to throw the straight as an arrow 98+ mphFB that usually gets hit. THAT was the ruts kelly would fall into over his Red Sox career