The Padres have signed third-round pick Hudson Head, the 84th selection in this year’s draft, to a $3MM bonus, Jim Callis of MLB.com reports. That’s a colossal payday relative to Head’s slot, which came with a value of $721,900, and represents a record bonus for a third-rounder.
Head’s a high school outfielder from Texas who fell short of where the Padres picked him, according to prominent draft pundits. FanGraphs (No. 90), MLB.com (No. 122) and Baseball America (No. 128) all placed the ex-Oklahoma commit below 85th. But Head, 18, has an “advanced feel for hitting” and “could wind up with solid or better tools across the board,” Callis and Jonathan Mayo write.
The Padres entered this year’s draft with the league’s eighth-highest bonus pool, $10,758,900, which gave them room to splurge on Head. The club previously used a large portion of that money on sixth overall pick C.J. Abrams, whom it inked to a below-slot deal worth $5.2MM.
Pretty steep. Good for him.
……and bad for them.
Eh. It’s just money (not mine).
Just another drop in the bucket for rich MLB owners
Pretty stupid comment.
More neutral than stupid.
Pretty stupid commenter
and how is it bad for them? They got a quality HS OF for money and nothing else. Sounds like a good thing for them to me.
It seems totally unnecessary to blow $2.3M more than you need to sign a 3rd rounder.
Unnecessary? Maybe to you, but the front office feels otherwise. I’d take Preller’s opinion over yours 7 days a week. Time will tell. Could be a great deal
Strawman.
But they wouldn’t have been able to sign the player for $2.3m less..that is why they paid him so much.
Preller is a moron.
Good for the padres. They have a surplus of prospects and are the exact kind of organization that can go for college fillers in the middle rounds and try to hit big on a couple HS guys.
Is there a downside here beyond the same ‘bust’ concerns that comes with every other prospect?
It’s a one time pay out from a ‘use it or lose it’ pool to get a propsect that pretty much everybody knowledge agrees has great potential
So yeah, where’s the big downside? Even if they’re overpaying, a million dollars that doesn’t even count as ‘payroll’ is pretty negligible in baseball terms…
If this keeps them from being able to sign Drake Fellows, that would be the downside.
Possibly, though I’d imagine they didn’t do this recklessly and have a pretty good idea of what both wanted, so what happens with Fellows was likely to happen regardless of this deal. Speculation on my part, of course, but I’m just assuming this was a calculated decision.
Still, if they had to choose between overpaying him or not getting him, I find it kind of odd that anybody would consider overpaying the bad decision.
Outside of their 1st Round pick, it looks like every other draft pick was rated far below where they selected. I seriously doubt Preller is smarter than the staffs of all 29 other teams and the writers, scouts, and analysts who rate prospects for a living.
Well, you did forget Drake Fellows and Maurice Hampton :/
Hampton isn’t signing. Preller missed the memo that the other 29 GMs got. If he was good enough to give $3.75MM to give up college, somebody would have signed him and paid his price. Obviously, he’s not.
Hampton was sent as a first or second round talent depending on which site you use. Padres got him in the 23rd round. But yeah, he was never going to sign.
And you completely ignored Drake Fellows.
Not really ignoring Meadows, I just don’t really care. 2 examples from the entire draft doesn’t exactly prove anything.
We’ll see … in about 5 years.
Edit: Fellows, not Meadows.
Well you should care about him considering you said EVERY Padres draft pick except for Abrams was rated far below where he was selected even though Fellows was not.
First, read what I actually wrote; there was a qualifier, it was not an absolute.
Second, since you’re admitting that only two picks were made above where they were selected, that pretty much proves my point. Especially since there was practically zero chance of signing Hampton, which has been addressed.
Thirdly, did you see the number of picks Preller made who weren’t even ranked?
So now we are moving the goalposts?
I didn’t actually check where each individual draftee was ranked. Fellows and Hampton were just the two that jumped out as being ranked higher than where the Padres ended up getting them.
Yes. If you had read my earlier comments on other threads I said I wouldn’t have been upset if the Padres had done when the Mets did and gone all-in on Matt Allan in the third round. I’m not too impressed by anyone they picked besides Abrams and maybe Fellows.
In any event, it’s not good to be a slave to pre-draft rankings. Which I am admittedly as guilty of as anyone.
Ditto. The scouting report I saw for Fellows says his ceiling is a #4. In reality, that means nothing, but it’s a point of interest from a quality standpoint.
I’m not moving the goalposts. There are none to move with this question.
Scouting report on Kluber when the Padres traded him was “#4 upside, more likely a reliever.” Now obviously I’m not saying Fellows is guaranteed or even likely to be the next Kluber but if pre-draft rankings are any indication, he was good value at #173.
Draft picks, prospects, and minor leaguers in general all have one thing in common: they are completely unpredictable as to what they will become.
I really like Mears. Looks like can can be a power hitting corner of.
One more in the first 10 rounds to go
Fellows, who is pitching in the cws
Always a good day when you get Head.
classy
Unless you splurge on Head
Why did I see that coming…..
because someone said just about the same thing the last time Hundson Head was mentioned.
This doesn’t really make a lot of sense – it was always assumed they took a bunch of prep pitchers 4-10 to save money to throw at a few overslot guys they took way further down in the draft. To throw so much of your pool to sign your third rounder when you weren’t expecting to makes this a curious decision. I’d guess they didn’t have the money to sign the other guys they wanted to and so were able to throw extra at Head who had a surprisingly high price point. Still, an odd draft from Preller after having it easy to pick the best player available in round one.
the reason teams jump on guys earlier is so that no one else does.
Seems like the Padres saw something they really, really liked and Hudson and his agent have some crazy confidence in his development. Basically, if Hudson takes another step forward and becomes a top 20 pick next year, his slot would be higher than $3M.
The Padres would look at the scenario as “This kid is going top 10 next year, but we can get him in the 3rd round, use up this year’s extra bonus pool which we don’t get to carry over anyway. It’s like drafting two first rounders this year.”
He was committed to OU so he wasn’t going to be taken anywhere next year. It was 3 million or wait 3 years to hope you can make it then.
Committing to a college does not mean you can’t de-commit, transfer, drop out or be drafted before you graduate. It’s not the military, dude.
i think the point is that if he were to be taken next year, that would have meant he chose to go to CC, which was not likely given his commitment.
He had a strong commitment to OU. I highly doubt he was ever going to consider CC. It was money or OU. Pads backed the truck up with money that he couldn’t refuse.
It’s funny reading some of these comments on here. The draft is a gamble and sometimes you need to do so off gut feelings. They have been rewarded for taking such gambles in the past ( Hudson Potts)
Hudson Potts may just flame out at AA. He hasn’t looked real good this year.
TIL that a .633 OPS in AA is “being rewarded”
They took a bunch of college pitchers between 4-10, not high schoolers.
Both will be busts.
Ooooooh! So YOU are the guy with the crystal ball!
The odds are against it…..
Not really, more guys are busts than than make it.
Way to cripple your draft. Overspend on 2 long shot high schoolers. Branch Rickey is throwing up in his grave!
“Quality through Quantity!”
When you have the #1 system in baseball, you can take a few risks. BTW Abrams went 4 for 4 with a HR and walk in his first game. Not a bad start.
Having the #1 farm system doesn’t mean a thing at the big league level. All it does is give fans of perrenial losers some sliver of hope to feel good about. Some take it to extremes.
But when the farm system just birthed two studs in Tatis and paddock and still maintaining its number one status? Keep this same energy when we sneak into the wild card.
Padres had good luck with another body part, maybe they’re aiming a bit higher now.
I like that. Brad came much cheaper though!
shawn armstrong is available
Overdraft and overpay.
I don’t understand why the Padres did it for themselves, but it does put pressure on the Mets who picked a high school pitcher with mid-first-round talent after this Padres’ pick. Other teams let Matt Allan go because they thought it would take a lot for him to forgo his college commitment.
In Preller we trust. If they believed in him this much-I’m all for it! The draft is crucial to this teams success and while i’m sure we punted on other guys in this draft-if our FO believed in this guy this much-can’t complain. We got it done. Go SD! I like Preller’s flair for the dramatic-hope somehow all these jigsaw pieces and lottery tickets pay off. As a huge fan of the Padres since the age of 5- it’s good to see the organization going for it, doing something-being bold. This season likely won’t end up in a playoff birth but even still-I feel we are on the path to something that could be great. Congrats to this young player on getting paid to do what he clearly loves to do.
While Preller does have a flair for the headline-type move, it’s certainly a boom-or-bust approach. If they (he) continues to make huge mistakes like the Hosmer deal though, then bust seems more likely.
Hosmer is on fire right now
The #1 farm system doesn’t mean a thing at the big leage level.
Tatis and paddack say otherwise.
Not a fan. One of those “pure athletes” that are incredibly raw and will be long projects…. see: Michael Gettys
I would say Donovan Tate…. but let’s just not go there. That doesn’t even count
At least you didn’t say Donovan Tate was a signability pick (he wasn’t)
Who says incredibly raw? I’ve seen comments from a BIg 12 coach who manages traveling teams who said Head is incredibly talented.
Big deal. It’s just another unqualified opinion,
Weird to throw this much at him. Seems like they could sign three guys at two million each.
Weird. This isn’t a first-round talent who dropped because of signability concerns like Matt Allan. And it’s not the first time Preller and co have overdrafted and then overpaid a guy (Quantrill, Weathers). But as long as they are still able to sign Drake Fellows it isn’t going to hurt them any.
Seriously dude, we “overpaid” Weathers??? Yeah, the Gatorade National Player of the Year. 10-0 0.09 ERA, 148 strikeouts over 76 innings as a SR. in high school is an overpay. So we overpaid for Gore too who was the Gatorade National Player of the Year the season before??
Straw man (n.) – an intentionally misrepresented proposition that is set up because it is easier to defeat than an opponent’s real argument.
Let’s put it this way then, I trust the GM who built the consensus #1 Farm System in all of baseball, over your internet prowess any day! Deal?
That’s your opinion
Funny, you really think that highly of yourself and your keyboard talent evaluation? If you are so good, then why are you typing on a forum instead of being employed by an MLB club as GM?
Go get a girlfriend. Or a hamster.
ad hominem (adj): (of an argument or reaction) directed against a person rather than the position they are maintaining.
It’s not a straw man due to the fact that you cited Weathers as an example.
However, Weathers did come with some reservations, but mainly due to signability (as a negotiation tactic?) and the level of competition he faced in high school.
It’s a straw-man because he said “So we overpaid for Gore too who was the Gatorade National Player of the Year the season before??” I never even mentioned MacKenzie Gore.
Weathers was not ranked in the top 10 by any site that did pre-draft rankings. People kept saying that he would sign for below slot and he didn’t.
Adding on, it’s clear based on his commenting style that @Schnitzengiggles was trying to troll, not foster discussion. Probably would have been best to just ignore but I was bored.
Weathers got slot.
And was supposed to sign for under-slot. Or at least that’s what they were saying when he was drafted.
Why would the high school player of the yr sign for below slot? Just doesn’t seem logical to me.
Because people kept saying that he would and that that was why the Padres took him over Singer or Liberatore. Their plan was to take a guy who would sign for cheap in the first round then take Kyler Murray in the 2nd round and pay him over slot to sign. That plan got foiled by the A’s tho (and thank God for that).
$2.5mm to use on all your other picks. That’s going to be tough to spread around.
Hudson has a big head.
Apparently, the Padres think he should.
The underslot deals were to save money to try and sign Hampton.
He is not going to sign and instead will attend LSU to play baseball and football.
So they “overpay” Head because they had the money and didn’t want to lose both.
Yeah I was thinking the same thing. Feels like they realized they weren’t going to sign Hampton.
If Hampton was signable, one of the other 29 teams would have drafted him sooner and paid what he wanted. IF, and only IF, they thought he was worth it.
In this years draft alone, the Padres saw 3 players that they had drafted in 2016 get drafted in the top 2 rounds, (Bleday, Bishop and Kessinger). Maybe they see something in Head that they saw in those 3 and didn’t want to lose another player that they saw high upside in.
Eh. That might be a bit of a stretch. All 3 of those guys were taken 700+ picks into the draft, and MLB.com had Bishop and Kessinger in their top 150 or so players. They didn’t have Bleday ranked, but he was a Vandy commit taken #1164 overall. They didn’t see anything in those 3 that all the other teams didn’t see; everyone just knew at least 2 of the 3 had strong college commitments and weren’t worth the money/high pick that’d pry them away at the time. Those aren’t players that you draft expecting to sign.
It’s no different than Jack Leiter going 615 this year, Maurice Hampton going 683, Brooks Lee going 1046, Bryce Osmond going 1053, etc.
They obviously saw something in him that they liked, but he was taken where he was expected to go based on his talent.
And if the Padres hadn’t gone over slot, then Head was going to college and the Padres would have lost the player and the slot value. Maybe the Padres brass sees something in this kid that other teams have missed. They wouldn’t have given Head $3M unless they really liked his game and his future,
Also, the rankings put out by MLB.com, BA, Fangraphs and ESPN are nice for fans to familiarize themselves with players, but they are by no means the way teams have players lined up. The Padres could very well have had Head in the top 30 on their board and paid him according. We’ll all know in 4 or 5 years if this was money well spent or not.
Rolison, not Kessinger.
Kessinger was drafted in the 26th round of the 2016 draft by the Padres and re-drafted this year by the Astros. Rolison was also drafted by the Padres in 2016, but was re-drafted last season by the Rockies. I did not include Rolison as I was focusing on the players that were former Padre draft picks re-drafted in the 2019 draft.
Funny to see the critics who instantly grade draft picks, or comment about overdraft/overpay.
In 2016, the Padres should have taken Jason Groome instead of Cal Quantrill, right? Three years later and Groome has his arm in a sling and won’t pitch again until 2020, probably at Low A. Meantime, Quantrill is in the major leagues.
Quantrill has an ERA in the 5’s.
It’s easy to be a know-it-all 2 years later, isn’t it?
My question is why haven’t they signed Tatis Jr. to an extension yet?
Because Preller isn’t as smart as he’s convinced people is.