It’s still too soon to make any conclusive statements on the outcome of the Mets’ offseason roster revamping efforts. Relief pitching, in particular, can turn on a dime. But it’s safe to say that the team’s bullpen makeover is not looking pretty at this moment.
GM Brodie Van Wagenen made the relief corps a key part of his offseason strategy. He had already sewn up much of the roster work by mid-December, at which time he declared that the organization had “shored up the bullpen with two premium arms.” The club went on to add a pair of lefties and entered camp thinking it had made huge strides in the pen.
The relief additions absorbed a large chunk of the Mets’ somewhat limited transactional capital. Setup man Jeurys Familia took a $30MM guarantee over three years, while southpaw Justin Wilson went for $10MM in two seasons. Combined, that was just over half the cash promised by the Mets in free agency. Adding high-octane young closer Edwin Diaz meant taking on big money through the Robinson Cano contract and coughing up recent #6 overall draft choice Jarred Kelenic, who is streaking up prospect boards. The deal also sent out veteran righty Anthony Swarzak, who hasn’t been perfect but does carry a 3.12 ERA with a 33:14 K/BB ratio on the season.
Not so much, as it turns out. The Mets are leading the league lead in blown saves, having accrued a huge volume of them in the past thirty days. The relief unit has fared poorly as a whole in terms of bottom-line results, though it has hardly been the worst (that’d be the division-rival Nats) in sapping win-percentage. While the overall picture isn’t catastrophic, the failures have been magnified by situational timing.
Glance at the Mets-specific WPA leaderboard and you’ll find Seth Lugo leading the way. That’s unsurprising, as the holdover hurler has been the team’s most effective relief pitcher. The only other clear positives in WPA? Wilmer Font, Tim Peterson, Hector Santiago, and Ryan O’Rourke — an assemblage of pitchers who have combined for more walks than strikeouts. Only Font, who has turned in passable work as a long man, is even still on the roster. Diaz leads the team in WPA-added (4.11), but has wiped out the positive contributions with several meltdowns (-4.64).
That’s … sort of the opposite of what the Mets were hoping for. An efficiently constructed bullpen can eat innings well enough when a game is out of reach and maximize a team’s chances of winning the games in which it’s positioned to do so. We often excuse sequencing luck and situational failings for other starters and position players, citing a need to look at broad samples. That’s true to an extent in the relief world, but at the end of the day, high-leverage performance and bottom-line results are the entire game for short-work pitchers.
So, it has been a wreck thus far, but can we at least explain away some of the struggles? And can the pen be salvaged?
Let’s start with the new additions — especially, the marquee closer. Diaz is still just 25. He’s averaging over 97 mph with his heater and carrying the same spin rates he did in his unreal 2018 effort. While his swinging-strike rate is down a touch from last year, it’s a healthy 17.7%. He’s pounding the zone like he did in 2018. The difference? He has gone from a .281 BABIP-against and 10.6% HR/FB rate to .406 and 19.2%, respectively. Statcast tells us there’s likely some luck in there — Diaz’s .276 xwOBA falls well under his .331 wOBA — but also some cause for concern. Opposing hitters are compiling a whopping 47.8% hard-contact rate and 15.2 degree launch angle. It seems the physical tools are still in good working order, so this may be a matter of finding some adjustments or simply waiting out a spell of misfortune.
That’s reasonably promising. Diaz was acquired to get results, but there’s no particular reason to think he can’t get back to doing so. The Mets still need to get him the ball with a lead, however, and there are greater questions with regard to the man that was hired to be the top setup option.
Familia was back to being his sturdy and reliable self in 2018 after an injury-riddled ’17 campaign. But he’s now on the shelf for the second time this year with shoulder issues. And he carries a 7.81 ERA with 28 strikeouts and 21 walks in 27 2/3 innings. The worries go well beyond the results. Familia has lost velocity and chases out of the zone, resulting in a swinging-strike drop. There’s some promise in the Statcast numbers, as Familia is only allowing 32.1% hard contact and has an even bigger x/wOBA spread than Diaz (.071). That’s some consolation, but there’s still quite a bit of uncertainty — especially in the near term — for the 29-year-old.
There are health problems as well for Wilson, who has been limited by elbow troubles and is now dealing with another setback. It’s hard to draw many conclusions from the 9 1/3 innings that the southpaw did throw. He sat in his customary 95 mph range but threw first-pitch strikes at a career-worst 50% rate, exhibited a swinging-strike drop, and allowed two long balls. The Mets’ other southpaw addition, Luis Avilan, was hammered before going down with his own elbow problems.
The situation is rather grim at the moment. Of their new additions, only Diaz is presently available. He and Lugo are holding down the high-leverage spots, with the struggling Robert Gsellman third on the totem pole despite a 4.81 ERA. Font has delivered decent results of late, but isn’t getting strikeouts and has bounced around the league in recent seasons. And those are the established members of the staff.
Otherwise, the Mets are carrying a group of unfamiliar arms. Daniel Zamora and Chris Flexen have not been good in short samples. Stephen Nogosek is a total wild card. Brooks Pounders has an awesome pitching name, but has already had a bit of a journeyman existence at 28 years of age. He has good numbers at Triple-A, but there’s a reason the Indians let him go. That group of unestablished hurlers followed an array of others who already failed to grab hold of MLB jobs. The Mets have now cycled through twenty relievers, one of whom (Nogosek) has yet to debut. Unsurprisingly, the cupboard is rather bare. The club hasn’t yet trotted out veteran Ervin Santana or called up youngster Anthony Kay, but the former hasn’t looked good and the latter is being developed as a starter. Arquimedes Caminero is the only other hurler in the organization with substantial MLB experience that hasn’t yet received a shot to this point. You can be sure he would have if he had shown any kind of spark at Syracuse.
Unfortunately, there’s really not much for the front office to do at this point but wait and hope while continuing to take chances on the spare pieces that shake loose from other clubs. That process has resulted thus far in Font and Pounders. The Mets simply aren’t in position — 3 games under .500, 7.5 off of the division pace — to force a significant trade. They’d be looking for multiple pieces regardless. It may take a miracle for Van Wagenen is to pull off this makeover, at least in the present campaign.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
goldenmisfit
Now we wait for “Mats 2020“ to have a stroke! My entire team sucks!
jdgoat
You actually think that guy is a Mets fan?
david klein
Almost every move Brodie turned out badly vs every move Bloom made worked out I’m shocked the Wilpons hired the wrong guy #notshocked
Steven Chinwood
#murphy’slaw = #metslaw
imissjoebuzas
Daniel “ I pound my old team” Murphy’s Law?
HobokenMetsFan
Spot on. Brodie told the Wilpons what they wanted to hear and got the job. Bloom told the Wilpons what they needed to hear and didn’t
ColossusOfClout
Surely there’s an expiration date on these Coupons. That’s Mets fans only hope!
fits65
The Mets fans only hope is if they join together for clout and stop buying tickets as well as stop watching SNY.
If you take away their egotistical position and hurt then in their small piggy bank there is a shot that the old man will give up.
This is still very much his team. Hiring an 82 year old pitching coach is a typical Fred move. They won’t fire any more management until the contracts are up as thrifty overrides winning. They could care less about the true Mets fans, who typically have abandoned this site for the rest of the year.
They will come back in the fall filled with piss and vinegar as the over matched gm promotes new “good sounding” moves which they will adopt and swear by.
aromaa
Zamora has been good he’s just a specialist.
david klein
Exact opposite he’s better vs righties
xSpecBx
The question is do they blow it up now or double down. They still have a few assets that they could trade for prospects to build up the farm while they ride out the couple big contracts.
Steven Chinwood
Who are those assets?
padam
Really?
of9376
Time to blow it up. Put Thor, Wheeler, Ramos, Conforto, and Frazier on the block. Get a decent return for the big names and prepare to SPEND SOME GD MONEY in free agency!
clrrogers 2
I think Van Wagenen is finding out that being a GM is harder than he thought.
bush1
I don’t know, Maybe take a little bit of time and learn the system and team a little bit before flipping the teams best stud prospect Kelenic for washed up Cano and a stinking closer. Such a dumb trade.
Dutch Vander Linde
Mets don’t have a top 50 prospect! Now that’s scary.
jorge78
What? A Mets post is an hour old and there isn’t at least 50 comments?
Ruben_Tomorrow 2
All Brodie has done has given his former clients jobs. Might as well call them the CAA Mets.
fits65
He’s insuring a job to go back to once his contract is over;)
BrodiesHairisGreezy!
Typically STUPID WontPon moves. They won’t spend money for the top=tier talents then throw sizeable dollars at the 2nd level down who of-course always turn to BUSTS. Then they force their fanbase to watch this garbage for the duration of their contracts as they won’t release them. One Good solid year of BOYCOTTING these LOSERS and then perhaps they will $ell!
Ejemp2006
Proponent for MLB contraction. No more Mets, Marlins, Reds, Angels, Padres, Rangers. Just stop senseless pain. Start with dissolve of Mets. All will cheer! A lot!
fits65
The boycott should include not only buying tickets but also NOT watching SNY so their ratings sink. Heck after 4 years of pain, why not organize a boycott of the advertisers and force them to pull their commercials.
If you did that Jeff’s toupe will fall off as the old man mumbles.
Daver520
I thought they did a LOT to bolster their pen but …. how bout that Reds bullpen
phenomenalajs
I still think Mets will go after Cody Allen as Mickey’s reclamation project.
imissjoebuzas
My thoughts too
DarkSide830
as mediocre as van wagenen has been, i cant really blame him for not predicting the collapses of Wilson, Diaz, and Familia, specifically the latter two.
Birch
Ask any other Mets fans… we all knew that this was going to happen with Familia. He always had inflated save numbers, but he had a habit of making EVERY game interesting. Diaz is a different story.
beerman
Amen to Mets fans knowing Familia was a dumpster fire.
imissjoebuzas
Familia spits the but in every tough situation. I feel like it always starts after two strikeouts, then he can’t close the deal. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s on the IL to see a shrink instead oof an ortgopedic surgeon
fits65
And what about Cano dark side? Don’t try to pass it off as “part of the package”. It was one of the worst trades in mlb history.
njbirdsfan
First the delicate genius that is Edwin Diaz can’t possibly pitch before the 9th and now he can’t even nail down the only statistic he cares about.
God I hate closers and the whole save BS.
jasonjennings
Typical. Another Queens GM Metsed up the job. What is the obsession the Wilpon bros have with terrible GM’s? The only GM I have ever seen worse than this guy is Steve Phillips. To be fair I am not a Mets fan. I am a Braves fan. I used to live in Queens though and I will take the Mets over the Yanks or even the RedSox any day. I was conversing with a good logical Mets fan on this site yesterday. He mentioned something that was eye opening. The Wilpons (especially Jeff) are far more concerned with beating out the Yankees in the Times and Post headlines than they are with actually building a long term contending team. All they care about is making big offseason acquisitions so they can get a short infusion of elevated tickets sold. Apparently it was to the point that Fred was livid about the fact the Yanks could afford to add enough payroll to acquire Giancarlo Stanton. Who cares? They don’t even play in the same league. The Mets don’t even have to compete for a playoff spot against the Yanks. It seems like they are less focused on hiring a winning GM and more focused on hiring a GM that tells them what they want to hear. Why would anyone hire a player agent to be a GM? It’s not like hiring a former prosecutor to be your defense attorney. Brodie spent years trying to get many players paid more than they are worth. So much so that he probably started to believe his own nonsense. It’s no small coincidence that he is handing out big $ contracts to his own former clients. $30 mill to Familia? $10 mill to Wilson? Jesus… Kimbrel only got 43… and he might be one of the 3 greatest closers of all time at age 30. How did Brodie even rationalize picking up Cano for his age 35-40 seasons at an average of $24 mill a season? I believe it was a 3-way strategy. A: Mets get Edwin Diaz (the best part). Problem is that Diaz has not been anywhere near great enough to warrant picking up $120 mill worth of salary from a washed up vet. B: Cano could still rake (obviously untrue). And finally… C: The Mets got to shed Jay Bruce’s overpaid salary. Only problem is that with even a poor batting average Bruce has been better than both those players combined. To make matters worse Bruce is now actually raking for a division rival of the Mets that is way in front of them (a.k.a. the Phils). Oh!… Just to add insult to injury the #6 overall draft pick the Mets traded to Seattle in this farce is ripping the minors apart. The Wilpons only give a GM this much freedom in his 1st off season. Brodie will bust just like the rest. Mets fans should petition for Brodie’s firing and for the Wilpons to sell the team. Or at least put the Wilpons in a sensory deprivation chamber where they can’t read newspapers.
bush1
Kelenic is going to be an absolute beast and anyone whose see him live new it. My guess is Brodie never saw him in person. The Cano/Diaz deal was so stupid from day one. I do agree that Brodie has a thing for bringing his clients on the team. Which is just silly and dumb…. I’m not a Mets fan either. But it bothers me seeing such stupidity in power positions. I feel for Met fans, because this is ridiculous…
fits65
Don’t feel for them—for the most part their loyalty causes them to enjoy self inflicted pain
imissjoebuzas
Cody Allen next? Callaway had been a pitching coach of his in the past when he was better, But Callawy has yet to show me he has a feel for when a pitcher can still go and when he is gassed. And if you look at the stats for the relief pitchers over each of their last 7 games, their ERAs (sans Lugo) are all over 7, pointing towards 10.00-12.00. Sad situation.
AT LEAST YOU COULD GET ALLEN FOR THE MAJOR LEAGUE MINIMUM, with the other guys paying the rest of his contracted dollars.
bush1
That Cano/Diaz deal was so idiotic from day one. Anyone whose ever seen Kelenic live knows he’s going to be a stud in the majors. Just such a stupid deal to take on all that payroll, for old Cano and it was obvious before the hindsight. Not too mention Jay Bruce has been MUCH better than Cano too this year. So dumb in so many ways….