In last week’s chat, I was asked which MLB player would be the next to be moved via trade. My mind immediately went to one place: the Mariners. GM Jerry Dipoto’s reputation precedes him. And he’s in a dealing mood, having already swung one deal on an expensive veteran and tried to work out another. But when it came to naming the specific player, it seemed too pedestrian to guess starter Mike Leake, who has already come up in talks, or pick an easy-come, easy-go reliever.
Instead, I went with veteran slugger Edwin Encarnacion, a long-time star who has been out of the spotlight of late. He’s hitting well, sure, but does EE even have a strong market right now? Let’s take a closer look.
The M’s ended up with Encarnacion when the music stopped on a dizzying game of lumbering slugger musical chairs over the offseason. It seemed at one point he’d be shipped elsewhere over the winter, but that didn’t come to pass. He is earning a $20MM salary this year. There’s also a $5MM buyout on a 2020 option, though the complicated trade that brought Encarnacion to Seattle included a $5MM payment to cover that amount.
With that kind of coin still owed, Encarnacion’s contract is unquestionably under water. He’s 36 years old and was merely good at the plate last year. He has mostly been limited to DH duties in recent seasons, though he has lined up at first base thus far in 2019 with palatable metrics.
On the other hand, Encarnacion can really hit. He’s back in business thus far, making the ’18 output look like a minor blip. Through 283 plate appearances, Encarnacion carries a .246/.360/.542 slash — that’s good for a healthy 143 wRC+ — and leads the American League with 21 round-trippers.
The M’s won’t shed all the remaining money owed, but they could well dump a significant portion of it. There’s even an argument to be made that the ’20 club option could be worthwhile; given the hefty buyout price, the $20MM rate of pay is effectively a $15MM decision. The Twins spent $14.3MM on Nelson Cruz this past winter and certainly don’t regret it.
The supply situation seems generally favorable for Seattle. For teams looking for serious lineup punch, there’s a relative dearth of obvious targets. The market hasn’t yet settled out, but it’s tough to imagine a better win-now DH/1B candidate being made available at this stage of the season (if at all, at least at a palatable price).
How much money the Seattle org will save, and/or what it can achieve in terms of prospects, will depend upon Dipoto’s ability to drum up interest from multiple teams. So how do things look from the demand side?
American League teams make for a natural fit, given Encarnacion’s defensive limitations. But it’s possible that NL clubs will also consider him, particularly since they’ve had a chance to see him play first base extensively this year. Most plausibly, the Brewers could pull the plug on the struggling Jesus Aguilar and replace him with Encarnacion. Some would argue the team should prioritize pitching, but there’s real potential for improvement here as well. Plus, it’d answer the rival Cubs’ recent signing of Craig Kimbrel — and give the Brew Crew a big righty bat to slot in against the Cubbies’ lefty-heavy rotation. You really have to squint to see any other National League outfits matching at present, but several could make sense depending upon injuries and other developments over the coming weeks.
Turning to the AL side of the ledger, Encarnacion would actually match up nicely with the team that just dealt him away. Carlos Santana has thrived since making his own return to the Indians, but the team still desperately needs more punch and could hand the DH slot right back to EE. While he fits on the roster, Encarnacion probably won’t squeeze into the payroll.
There’s perhaps also an argument for the Rangers to take a look. If they’re going to slug their way into the Wild Card, they may as well go whole-hog, and Ronald Guzman has been below-average at the plate. But it’d be a bit of an odd move for a team that is desperate for starting pitching and likely doesn’t want to expend too much cash (and certainly won’t want to give up future value) on a season that may well fizzle out.
The Yankees haven’t received the bounce back they hoped for from Kendrys Morales, but he’s also just a temporary fix. It’d be an unexpected splurge to go for Encarnacion with Luke Voit holding down the fort at first, multiple major bats on the rehab trail, and needs elsewhere.
What about the scuffling defending champs? The Red Sox are actually a somewhat interesting fit, but only if they’re willing to utilize Encarnacion at first base and further boost their league-high spending levels. Steve Pearce has collapsed at the plate. Mitch Moreland has hit well from the left side but is hurt. Michael Chavis has hit a lull; he’d also still be an option at second base with the addition of Encarnacion.
How about the Rays, who are tied atop the AL East with the Yanks and will need to max out their resources down the stretch? The Tampa Bay org is getting solid value from Ji-Man Choi at first base, with Yandy Diaz sliding over from third to handle lefties. There’s not a huge DH need since the club has a bit of a corner outfield surplus with Avisail Garcia, Tommy Pham, and Austin Meadows. That said, there’s some window for a deal since Choi and top hitting prospect Nate Lowe are both lefty hitters. The club will surely also consider putting its money and prospects to work to add pitching, but a move for Encarnacion is well worth considering.
The Astros may be the best fit, all things considered. It’s a team that sometimes seems to have it all, but there are caveats. Right now, the ’Stros aren’t healthy, and it’d be preferable to ensure the offense keeps producing while the team awaits the returns of some star players. More importantly, there is a rather notable roster opening in the slugger department. Encarnacion was reputedly on the Houston radar before the season and he ought to be an even bigger target now, with Yuli Gurriel and Tyler White both producing at subpar rates. Even if Yordan Alvarez grabs hold of the DH spot, Encarnacion could step in at first base. This possibility is especially tempting to contemplate since it could help the Houston organization form up a historically exceptional lineup in time for the postseason.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
The Ranger Fan
Jeff Todd…….Why would the Rangers take on this enormous contract still owed about 10-12 million this year and 20 million next year or buyout 5 million.
We are in need of pitching, Sure he would be great on the team if we weren’t pounding the ball, but we are. And he would have to leave that bird in Seattle.
Jeff Todd….thanks for the article and the Rangers mention.
somac
It’s almost like he mentioned those reasons as ones that might prevent the Rangers from acquiring EE
The Ranger Fan
Exactly, and why would we want to give up even our lowest prospect for someone with no so great numbers at first and then can only D.H.
We have at least four on the team now sharing D.H. and Willie Calhoun comes back next week and the week after Gallo.
Seattle would have to give him to Texas with no prospects involved and eat the money for it to actually be beneficial to us. Oh and we will let them keep the imaginary Parrot.
SalaryCapMyth
You’ve added nothing to the conversation. The reasons you list was already the reasons mentioned by the writer why the Rangers are unlikely.
ckln88
Also he has pretty decent numbers at first. Can do more than just DH and has done that this year with the Mariners.
jrad2007
The M’s would eat some of the salary and the 5 million buyout the M’s would cover.
DarkSide830
i feel like there might be a more compelling case for him going to the NL. a lot of the teams with needs likely dont want to take on his contract, and those that can have less of a need for him. as much as the lack of a DH hinders the NL market, you could possibly see the Nationals doing a contract-swap with him and Zimmerman. (granted, they would have to convince Zimmerman to go there, and would probably have to give up a prospect as well)
SLL
The Mariners have no need for Zimmerman. Prospects are what they want. If no good prospect is offered, I don’t see any reason for a trade, since Mariners’ fans would certainly rather watch Encarnacion than Zimmerman.
GarryHarris
I thought this too. SEA would want to get prospects maybe Carter Kieboom and Wilmer Difo but would have to take Ryan Zimmerman to offset salary.
SalaryCapMyth
The Nationals arent giving up a top 30 prospect for about 250 AB’s of Encarnacion. They’ve already called him up so they are definitley keeping him.
ckln88
If he was traded now it would be closer to around 400 AB’s
hiflew
You could have said that about Jay Bruce as well. You know, current NL player of the week, Jay Bruce. People get so bogged down in the idea that a guy can’t play in one league or the other. It’s just silly.
JaredK38
Mariners have said time and time again they will eat money for prospects.
So if the Mariners eat 10-15 millions who would be interested?
SalaryCapMyth
I imagine that changes thing. I just wonder about our expectations. Machado pulled one top 100 prospect and one wild card for about 250 AB’s so someone a bit outside that? So as some have suggested, the Nationals maybe. Take Zimmerman to pick up the cost of Encarnacion and if the Mariners could convince the Nationals to give up Denaburg, I would call that a win.
bus035
I would say the Orioles did well getting Dean Kremer, Rylan Bannon, and Yusniel Diaz but comparing a trade of Machado and EE is apples to oranges based on contract and overall on-field value.
However, if the Mariners take on about $10-$11 million (half of this season’s cost and the buyout) they should be able to snag a solid “B” level prospect like an Antoni Flores from Boston.
ocangelfan
figuring these things out is one of my favorite things in sports…still baffled on how that wells trade got through will so little money coming with him
its_happening
If EE has a market, so does Justin Smoak. Smoak costs less and is a better defender. Still give the hitting edge to Edwin.
Lennon's Dad
Smoak has enormous splits (wRC+ of 63 against LHP). He also has a line of .207/.303/.310 (70 wRC+) so far this month and the defensive gap between them isn’t as large as you think.
Smoak may have a market, but he won’t be nearly as attractive as EE. Money isn’t going to be an issue if Seattle’s willing to eat salary, which it appears they are.
For what it’s worth, Edwin has 1.8 fWAR; Smoak 0.8.
its_happening
As a Blue Jays fan, the defensive gap is massive. But please feel free to give me fraudulent, misleading stats with fake numbers we can’t really debate. Pretty please.
For what it’s worth, Smoak sits at $8-mil, Edwin $20-mil. The fact that Seattle has to eat money means money IS an issue.
As I said, if EE has a market, so does Justin Smoak. You decided to come up with ways that EE is better than Smoak. Uh, yeah, I’m a Blue Jays fan. I know how lethal Edwin’s bat is. Thanks for nothing.
jbigz12
Historically smoak’s splits aren’t that lopsided but that is the case this year. If a team buys into this years numbers then that is a problem for Smoak’s trade value. You’d have to look at him as a heavy side platoon guy instead of an everyday starter. As for defense at 1B, I’d imagine Smoak is still a good bit better but this is 1B defense. Thats only going to carry so much weight. Idk why you took offense to his comment though. It didn’t come across as ignorant in the slightest.
youngTank15
Downvote
Lennon's Dad
Do you think Fangraphs posts fake numbers? Do you have any understanding of what 1B defense is worth, or do you just specialize in snark and offer nothing other than a boring opinion as a Blue Jays fan?
For the record, those were rhetorical questions, as the answers are already clear.
its_happening
Yes to your fangraph numbers. Yes to your second question as any person watching baseball doesn’t have to lean on empty numbers (ie. range is a hypothetical number), to suggest Smoak is a better defender than EE. The fact that you even made an attempt means you are a number cruncher, not a game watcher. That much is clear.
Since you aren’t old enough stay up beyond 7pm to watch games, I’ll be your dad and let you know you can watch first pitch. Maybe you’ll learn how baseball is done beyond a mathematical formula
Shawn McLaughlin 2
There’s no use in arguing with anyone who has no interest in evolving with the game. Especially one who prefers reading his own rhetoric rather than trying to understand what you are saying.
its_happening
There’s no use in arguing with anyone using lies as facts. Anyone that says EE’s defense is better than Justin Smoak doesn’t have a leg to stand on. It’s beyond laughable to make that suggestion – no disrespect to Edwin Encarnacion.
Lennon's Dad
I couldn’t agree more, Trim.
But I’m still looking for the comment that suggests EE is the better defender.
SaberSmuckers
They both have a dWAR of .5, so as LD stated, gap can’t be that big. Smoak is better, but not like it’s a runaway.
The fact Seattle is willing to eat money and drop EE’s salary down to something comparable to Smoak means money will not be an issue for the opposing team. They may have to give up more, it’s an issue in that sense, but it’s not like someone like Tampa could not afford him with a discount.
Also, why are you so mad at everyone? The game is changing for the better, change with it. Range is not hypothetical, it’s quantifiable. Read up. Channel your anger towards something worthwhile, not a comment you refuse to understand because it references formulas and you prefer the eye test – both have a place in today’s game.
Munch
Nobody made that suggestion
jdgoat
Defensive stats are 100% useful, and usually are pretty reliable; except when it comes to first baseman. Smoak is not a “rangy” defender. EE is not a “rangy” defender. But Smoak might be the best first baseman in the game when it comes to “pickin it”. The stats may show they are similar, but in reality it isn’t close. Any other position and those stats have more value.
compassrose
When Smoak was in Seattle he was considered a poor D 1stbm. His D metrics were always bad. I would watch him play and wonder how they could rate him so low. I think uzr has improved along with the other D metrics.
I haven’t seen Smoak a lot since he left but if his D hasn’t taken a drastic drop he is better than EE. If you compare hitting EE is better. Would you rather have a better 1bm at D or hitting? That is what it comes down to. I would rather have hitting over D at 1st. That is me though.
gavinrendar
Is WAR a fraudulent misleading stat?
ckln88
Literally no one made that suggestion whatsoever that EE’s defense is better than Smoaks. What was said is that it’s not as big a gap as you think. You’ve also not provided any information as to why you believe that he is so much better of a defender because apparently you just decide who’s the better defender by just watching some plays? Haha like cool bro. And the fact you have to result in essential name calling to ‘prove’ your ‘point’.
ckln88
Great comment Saber. Upvote.
Cesspoolofdegenerates
You’re a pretentious narcissist that clearly is channeling aggression from your own personal issues. I don’t even comment on this site, but wanted to let you know what a pretentious POS you are
SLL
Smoak is all over the place, very inconsistent. Good years, horrible years. Encarnacion has mostly been DH in recent years, but he’s doing a very good job at first this year.
its_happening
And that is why EE is paid 2.5 times the amount of Smoak. From 2012 onward EE mashed. Really mashed.
ayrbhoy
Ironic that this thread is discussing Smoak’s potential value vs EE. Smoaky was ‘run out of town’ in Seattle leaving many of us fans fed up with failed promises of him reaching his potential. I’m pleased the kid found some success in TOR but I find this thread rich in irony. Haha
sufferforsnakes
Pass.
CrewBrew
I think the Brewers should/will upgrade at first but Edwin does not seem like the best fit. I mean, can this guy even play 1st anymore? His bat would be great though in our lineup. I dont see them going after him though.
Lennon's Dad
He’s easily been Seattle’s best first baseman and isn’t any worse than Aguilar.
CrewBrew
Id take below average defense with Edwins numbers over below average defense with Aguilars .100 batting average any day lol.
Lennon's Dad
I’m with ya! And I’m really hopeful Milwaukee can finally get to the WS.
CrewBrew
Man i hope. pitching needs to get better. Appreciate the support though. MIL fans still recovering from game 7 at Miller Park and game 6 against Toronto. We in mourning lol
SLL
Yes, he’s been playing first quite well.
pt57
Why wouldn’t the Crew just roll with Hiura at 2b and use Shaw and Moose at the corners? Plus don’t they still have Thames?
Lennon's Dad
Encarnacion still slugged 32 HR’s last season despite a biceps and wrist issue that nagged him much of last season. That may have been a “down” year, but he was still productive. He ended up with a wRC+ of 115 and matched his RBI total of 107 from the year before.
He’s been a pleasant surprise at 1B for Seattle, so it’s easy to see a team in need of a first baseman being interested and I do see Houston as Milwaukee as fits.
CrewBrew
How is his defense at first these days? cant imagine him being that sure handed
Lennon's Dad
See above
CrewBrew
All depends on the amount of money they would be willing to eat. The Brewers dont have a lot of flexibility in spending right now and starting pitching is more of a concern
Lennon's Dad
They’re at 126 million right now. Seattle would probably have to eat most of this year’s salary and the buyout.
Mike Leake might make some sense for them as well, though the same salary issue would apply.
CrewBrew
Leake would be an interesting trade candidate to a NL team
SeattleFan2592
I agree that Seattle will eat most of Edwin’s contract in order to facilitate a trade and get a better prospect back; but they won’t be trading Leake to the Brewers.
Leake has a full no-trade clause and his sick father lives in Arizona. He has stated that he will veto any trade to a non-West Coast team since he wants to be close to his father. If he’s dealt anywhere, which he probably will, it will be to Arizona or San Diego most likely
Lennon's Dad
I didn’t hear him state he would veto any trade to a non-West Coast team, only that he would be open to going someplace where he’s actually wanted.
Arizona and San Diego would each make sense, but San Diego seems to be more interested in a front line starter.
jbigz12
The team that could use him the most is the team that dealt him away this offseason. They’ll never pay that salary but he’s about 100x better than Jake Bauers. If they don’t get another stick in the lineup they can forget about competing for that WC. Wouldn’t expect it to be Edwin at that price point though.
Lennon's Dad
I couldn’t agree more, but Cleveland may not have made a decision on whether to buy or sell yet and it wouldn’t be surprising if they chose to sell. They would probably prioritize the outfield if they do choose to make a run at it.
Chicks Dig the Longball
“with Luke Voit holding down the fort”
The phrase is “holding the fort” as in a military hold. Unless you mean Luke Voit is single-handedly keeping the fort from flying away, which you may in fact have meant. If so, carry on, my dude.
johnrealtime
No.
merriam-webster.com/dictionary/hold%20down%20the%2…
trendysayings
EE has even shown this year that he can play second base in a pinch. Talk about versatility
jakec77
Versatile. He can play poorly at many positions.
CalcetinesBlancos
Brew Crew should get it done. They need the offense and Aguilar has been terrible.
CrewBrew
i was expecting a little drop off from him this season, but nobody expected this. I would rather have one of our starting pitchers at the plate with men on than Jesus at this point.
Luke
Twins should trade for him. They could really use some pop in that lightweight lineup.
jerrytek
Just you clear up some misconceptions on EE’s salary and money issues.
First, Cleveland is paying $5 mil of Edwin’s deal, which would likely go to whichever team picks him up.
Second, and most importantly, the M’s have shown they aren’t afraid to eat money. They just included 18.5 mil in the Jay Bruce trade. Bruce was owed 21 mil through next season. That’s a lot of cash. EE is obviously a better and more valuable player, but I’d imagine the Ms would include money to improve their return.
If the Ms chipped in 10mil, plus the money from Cleveland, Encarnacion would cost about 4 million for the remainder of this season, with about 12 mil as on option for next year (depending on when he’s traded and how three cash was allocated). There is a good but of surplus value at those numbers.
bravesfan
Astros make sense. The market for him isn’t exactly huge even though this article list a bunch of teams. I think most of the team mentioned are a bit of a stretch. Astros make a lot of sense, but SEATTLE can’t expect much in return for him. Some cash plus a minor leaguer. Maybe a bottom tier top 30 in their system with cash? I just don’t see him bringing a lot cause of the cost and limited market, so my prediction could be a bit bullish
Zachg547
It’s almost guaranteed the M’s will eat some of the money so that’s not that big of a deal.
astros_fan_84
I see the fit, and I don’t think the prospect price would be that much.
muskie73
If the “Twins spent $14.3MM on Nelson Cruz this past winter and certainly don’t regret it.,” how is “Encarnacion’s contract … unquestionably under water”?
To date Cruz has posted 0.8 fWAR, valued at $6.7 million, and Encarnacion 1.8 fWAR valued at $14.6 million. ZiPS, Steamer and FanGraphs Depth Charts have rest-of-season WAR projections of 1.2, 1.7 and 1.5 for Cruz and 1.4, 1.4 and 1.3 for Encarnacion:
fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2434&posit…
fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2151&posit…
Cruz is two-and-a-half years older than Encarnacion.
Luke
Though I largely agree with you, the circumstances can make the Twins decision a good one and the M’s a bad one despite WAR. Namely, the additional win or two is much more valuable to the twins in an effort to get into the playoffs than the Mariners to bring a mediocre team into a slightly less mediocre team.
gavinrendar
Well, remember, the M’s didn’t fork out this money for EE. They trade for him to save on Santana’s aggregate salary and got a draft pick in the process.
piercejd
I watch a ton of MiLB baseball for the Mariners system (2-3 games a day) and he really isn’t preventing anyone that is waiting in the wakes from coming up. Evan White has been picking up steam lately but probably isn’t ready to come up and Austin Nola has been playing a good 1B for the Rainiers, though he is a catcher technically and there is clearly no need for catching help with this club unless we deal Narvaez or Murphy.
Ultimately, he is super fun to watch and seems like a great clubhouse guy, If we aren’t going to get salary relief or a promising prospect in return I want to see him stay put. Let the parrot ride baby!
Nook
The Astros wouldn’t give up much for him, even with the Mariners and Indians eating almost all his salary. Maybe the Indians get someone like Fisher or someone in the bottom half of the Astros top 30 and someone the Astros have soured on.
The Astros don’t really need him, they have a number of bats to plug in and could always just call Tucker up and move Alvarez to first.
Floopjack
EE and Merrifield to the Indians. Bauer to the Red Sox makes it happen.
jakec77
I think Indians make more sense than might be assumed a first glance. Let’s assume that Seattle will include $5 million in the trade. For the sake of easy math, assume the trade happens after game 81.
That means the Indians only pick up $5 million dollars in salary for this year (half of $20 million since season half over minus the five they get) and either $5 million buy out for next season or one year $20 million salary.
Presumably, they’d only have to give up a mid level prospect.
Gives them a big bat desperately needed to try to get into contention.
Come July 31, if it hasn’t worked out, they can probably unload him again by including the $5 million they got from Seattle (which would cover the buy out), in which case it cost them a midlevel prospect to try and win with this group before having to make some hard decisions this offseason.
drfelix
It blows me away how most think Seattle is just going to give EE away, pay all but $5m in salary and then only get a mid-level prospect back. I was shocked how much salary Seattle ate to dump Bruce, but EE is a different class of hitter.
EE is on pace for nearly 50 Bombs. And a team wanting him will pony up $10-15M for 2019 (Cruz like contract). EE is in the 2019 MVP talks now. Seattle can give up the $5M they got from Cleveland and should still get a few prospects in return and one of the prospects in the top 10-15 of any team out there.
brewpackbuckbadg
Did the Yanks read this and think — lets keep him away from the sox and rays for a cheap surplus for us? Probably not but who knows. Life imitating art?