It’s May 28, two full months into the season, and the Twins are atop Major League Baseball in record (36-17), run differential (plus-110), runs (319) and home runs (105). They’re already almost halfway to last season’s win total (78) with 109 games to go. If you didn’t think the Twins would be in this position, one that sees them leading the preseason AL Central favorite Indians by 10 games, you’re part of a club with countless members.
So how have the Twins done it? Largely with homegrown products. Shortstop Jorge Polanco, outfielders Byron Buxton, Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler, and right-hander Jose Berrios and Kyle Gibson are among those who have been at the forefront of Minnesota’s charge up the standings. But many of the additions executives Derek Falvey and Thad Levine made this past offseason, when they happened to lock up Polanco and Kepler to sweetheart extensions, have played significant roles in the Twins’ greatness thus far.
As far as winter pickups went, the Twins’ costliest acquisitions – free-agent signings Marwin Gonzalez (two years, $21MM) and Nelson Cruz (one year, $14.3MM) – received the lion’s share of attention entering the season. As the Twins expected, they’ve been prominent pieces in 2019. However, some of the Falvey-Levine duo’s less expensive buys have been arguably as important.
Over 20 percent of the Twins’ league-high HR total has come from first baseman C.J. Cron and second baseman Jonathan Schoop, who have combined for 23 dingers. The 29-year-old Cron arrived in late November as a waiver claim from the Rays, who cut him even though he was coming off a 30-home run campaign in which he slashed .253/.323/.493 (122 wRC+). Low-budget Tampa Bay wasn’t on board with paying Cron upward of $5MM via arbitration. He ended up settling for a bit less, $4.8MM, shortly after joining the Twins. Since then, they’ve benefited from Cron’s .270/.333/.534 (125 wRC+) line with 13 HRs in 198 trips to the plate. It doesn’t look like a fluke, as Cron is walking more, striking out less, chasing fewer out-of-zone pitches and making more contact than he did in 2018. He also boasts an expected weighted on-base average (.376) that sits nine points higher than his real wOBA (.367).
To this point, Cron has replaced now-retired franchise icon Joe Mauer’s production with aplomb. Schoop also had a tough act to follow in Brian Dozier, an excellent Twin from 2012-17 whom the team traded last summer amid a disappointing season. So far, Schoop hasn’t been fazed either.
Like Dozier, Schoop followed up an impressive 2017 with a down ’18, in which the Orioles traded him to the Brewers in July. Schoop wasn’t good with either team last year, and the Brewers understandably decided after the season to non-tender him instead of giving him a potential $10MM-plus salary in arbitration.
On Dec. 6, a week after he reached free agency, Schoop found a new home in Minnesota at a $7.5MM salary. The 27-year-old has begun his Twins tenure by slashing .266/.321/.514 (118 wRC+) with 10 HRs through 187 trips to the plate. Whether it’s sustainable is in question, though. Schoop has posted below-average strikeout and walk rates, which admittedly has been the case throughout his time in the majors, while swinging and missing at an all-time high rate and making less contact than ever. Encouragingly, though, there isn’t a large gap between Schoop’s wOBA (.356) and xwOBA (.347).
With the help of Cron and Schoop, the Twins’ offense has been the driving force behind their first-place start. But pitching has also been a major reason for the team’s revival. Berrios, Jake Odorizzi and Kyle Gibson get most of the attention in their rotation, but another offseason scrapheap pickup – left-hander Martin Perez – has logged a sterling 2.17 ERA through 49 2/3 innings out of their rotation. Before he got to Minnesota, Perez was largely a back-end starter in Texas from 2012-18. He was borderline unusable last year, an injury-shortened campaign, and the Rangers declined his $6MM club option thereafter. In doing so, the Rangers had to pay Perez nearly half that money ($2.35MM). They weren’t exactly teeming with starters at the time, which showed how far the former promising prospect, 28, fell out of favor in Arlington.
Perez has found new life with the Twins on a $4MM guarantee, though, and may be pitching his way into their 2020 plans. They’ll have to decide on a $7.5MM option after the season, but the way things are going, it doesn’t look as if Perez will end up back in free agency then. Perez’s rise has come thanks in part to a noticeable increase in velocity. His fastball and sinker each averaged around 93 mph last year, but they’re in the 95 range this season. While Perez’s walk rate of 4.08 per nine isn’t appealing, he has upped his K/9 from 5.48 to 8.69 in a one-year span. At the same time, hitters are making less contact off Perez, whose 10.9 swinging-strike percentage far outdoes the 7.8 mark he managed in Texas. When they have put the bat on the ball, the contact hasn’t been all threatening, evidenced in part by Perez’s paltry .283 xwOBA (compared to a .298 wOBA).
When Perez and the Twins’ other starters have handed off to the club’s bullpen, they’ve given the reins to relief corps which has made strides since 2018. The loss of the lights-out Ryan Pressly, whom the Twins traded to the Astros last summer, has stung. However, three more members of the Twins’ buy-low offseason bonanza – righties Ryne Harper, Blake Parker and Mike Morin – have come through to help ease the pain of Pressly’s loss.
Harper was already in the organization last season, but he spent it in the minors and wasn’t a lock to stick around this year. The Twins re-signed him to a minor league deal, however, and have since seen his emerge as a trustworthy piece of their bullpen. The 30-year-old Harper, who hadn’t even pitched in the majors prior to 2019, leads Twins relievers in innings (22, tied with Taylor Rogers) and has pitched to a stingy 1.64 ERA/2.57 FIP with 8.18 K/9 and 2.05 BB/9. Granted, regression for the soft-tossing Harper is likely on the way – it’ll be hard to maintain a .220 batting average on balls in play and an 85.2 percent stand rate, and perhaps even tougher for a fly ball-heavy hurler to continue limiting home runs. Nevertheless, one can’t quibble with the unexpected production he has given Minnesota to this stage.
The 33-year-old Parker has been similarly effective through 17 1/3 innings, having registered a 1.04 ERA in an effort to prove the Angels were wrong in non-tendering him last November. Parker isn’t going to keep this up, as his .190 BABIP, 96.2 percent strand rate, uninspiring strikeout and walk rates (7.27 K/9, 3.63 BB/9), and FIP (3.63) indicate. No matter, the groundball-heavy Parker undoubtedly looks worthy of Minnesota’s $3.2MM investment.
The team’s paying even less to Morin, who signed a minors deal in December after struggling with the Angels, Royals and Mariners in previous years. Since the Twins promoted Morin, 28, to the majors May 3, he has worked 9 1/3 innings of one-run ball without issuing a walk.
Roughly a third of the way through the season, Minnesota has been a juggernaut. Whether the Twins will continue to fare this well is up for debate, though it’s hard to envision a team with this much talent nosediving out of the race. Regardless of whether you believe the Twins are for real, though, it’s fair to say a good portion of their success has come thanks to the shrewd, low-risk offseason moves Falvey and Levine made.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Rich Hill’s Elbow
Bullpen, bullpen, bullpen, there’s simply no way around it Falvine. It’s not like we can multiply Taylor Rogers by 3…
swiggy
I’m tired of this Bullpen stuff. Where did that get us in ’04/’05/’06 ??? Forget that, With this starting pitching and offense, shoot. we can pick up a couple guys by aug 1. for the bullpen, no biggie.
Begamin
To be honest i cannot understand why everyone was so quick to forget about Schoop after one bad year. Im not surprised at all to see him doing well this year either.
thecoffinnail
It wasn’t just a bad year. He seemed to be a completely different hitter last year. Back when I played ball the same thing happened when I hurt my elbow. The pain eventually went away but I wasn’t able to find my swing again. If you look at his swing in 2017 you can see he is turning his hips and using his entire body. In 2018 he seemed to be swinging with his arms and upper body. There wasn’t the fluid movement of his lower half. Just my 2 cents but I think he injured himself somewhere along the line and was trying to compensate which affected his swing.
bleacherbum
I remember Cliff Floyd on MLB Network getting crap when he suggested that the Twins would surprise a lot of people.
Everything he mentioned in March is exactly what has paid dividends so far in the early part of this year.
Schoop
Cruz
Cron
Not to mention two of the sweetest swinging Lefties in the game in Rosario and Kepler.
Hopefully they can keep this impressive run up.
jdgoat
Easiest division in baseball and the team that came out on top every year for the past few years decided it wanted to rebuild. I’m not surprised at all.
gmenfan
Waiting for the followup article “Giants go bargain shopping, wind up taking it all to the dumps.”
Xavier Blaine
To be fair Trevor Gott has turned into one of the nastiest relievers in baseball, but basically every other piece they got has made the team even worse somehow.
gmenfan
Agreed about Gott.
It’s hard though to look at 9 left fielders in two months and come away with a terribly positive outlook though.
raz427
I can’t recall the GM for the Twins? Can anyone help? Is it Thad Levine still? Regardless of whomever it is, they are the EOY in my mind. Shows to me you don’t need a roster filled with all stars to get the job done. Great leadership and guidance by Rocco and his staff.
Michael Chaney
Derek Falvey is the chief baseball officer (I believe that’s his title), so I think he’s the one that has final say. Thad is basically his right hand man though.
raz427
I personally think they should go after a Jake Diekman. I know he’s within the division with KC but he’s having a good year. 33 K’s 10 BB in 25 Ip. He’s pitched in the postseason as well. Another lefty cannot hurt when you have to deal with Boston or NYY in October. At 33 years of age I don’t think Diekman would command a lot, but maybe I’m wrong.
PiratesFan1981
Very rare is there a in-division trade. So don’t hold your breath wishing for this.
raz427
Yeah I know lol. But he’d be ideal for them. I was listening to the KC/CWS on my way home and heard Diekman’s numbers, thought he’d be the perfect fit for them.
swiggy
and to think i was mad when they fired Molitor….
Rich Hill’s Elbow
If not Doolittle (maybe Givens too), go get Dyson and Watson of the Giants.
Steven Chinwood
Usually the Twins can expect one and done in the playoffs. This year they’ll ascend to three and out.
darkangel
Parker will return to form in giving up walk-off homeruns. it is inevitable.
Pablo
I still like treinen, f. Vasquez, maybe a Kirby Yates on good year… there are ways to improve the pen. I still like the idea of maybe adding postseason master madbum into the rotation.
I would also like to point out how many “analysts” now are saying we knew the twins were this good the whole time. Everything going into the season says they’re lying lying lying to make themselves look good. MLB network wise it might have been Harold Reynolds that went against everyone else saying he was wrong and thinks the twins will keep going. Everyone else said there’s no way and only a fool would think Cleveland wouldn’t win in the end…