The dizzying run of extensions this spring drew quite a lot of attention. Several contracts were pointed to as being notably team friendly. Others were of obvious importance because they involved superstars entering walk years.
The sheer volume of transactions tended to obscure the fine details of each particular decision. And several of the extensions were all but buried in the news. When the Twins set up the mics to announce extensions for Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler, the full rush of deals hadn’t yet occurred. But the moves came at the same time that star hurlers Aaron Nola and Luis Severino were signing on the dotted line, drawing much of the attention away from a Minnesota club that was coming off of a middling 2018 season and hadn’t been quite as bold as might have been anticipated in free agency. And the flood of later signings ensured that the Twins’ deals would receive relatively little attention.
Frankly, given the costs involved, those signings did not represent an especially monumental moment for the franchise. The Joe Mauer contract, this was not. The Twins did not strike deals with top young starter Jose Berrios or high-end outfielder Eddie Rosario, both of whom would likely have commanded bigger dollars. Better-known former top prospects Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano weren’t really in position for extensions after rough seasons.
So, did we sleep on the Twins? From a team perspective, the roster upside was obvious, but nobody foresaw a 36-17 start to the year and a ten-game lead over the sagging Indians. And what of the extensions they signed? Any sober examination of the Polanco and Kepler contracts at the time of signing would have noted the potential upside but settled on relatively modest expectations. With a third of the season in the books, both deals look like slam dunks.
Let’s look first at Polanco. When the Twins promised him $25.75MM over five years, they were obviously quite comfortable with the risks and had expectations of excess value. But it’s hard to imagine they anticipated the sort of monster production they’ve received from the 25-year-old shortstop.
When MLBTR’s Steve Adams pointed to Jose Ramirez as a comp, he was thinking primarily of the latter’s contract — not his ensuing breakout. As it turns out, Polanco has followed Ramirez in converting contact ability into power.
This can’t be called a total surprise. As Adams wrote in assessing the Polanco deal, “if he can tap into a bit more power, there’s perhaps room to take his game to another offensive level.” Certainly, the Twins felt there was something more in the tank after a strong but hardly elite showing in 2018. The stated expectation was that the “best is yet to come” and that Polanco would “continue to develop and grow.”
But that was all projection and feel-good press conference talk. Did anyone really think Polanco would turn on the jets in this manner? He’s now slashing .332/.404/.584 with nine home runs in 228 plate appearances. Better yet, he has boosted his walk rate up to 10.5% and hasn’t even needed to add swing and miss (14.9% strikeout rate) to boost his pop. There’s likely a bit of regression in store, with a .363 BABIP and decent spread in Statcast results/expectations (.418 wOBA vs. .382 xwOBA). But the arrow is obviously pointed upward.
It’s easy to see how the contract could become the sort of bargain that helps fuel a lengthy contention window. One need only look at Ramirez. The Twins had ample control over Polanco already, as he was only a 2+ service-class, non-Super Two player. (He’d have had more but for an ill-advised PED suspension.) Because they made the deal before arbitration and in advance of a true breakout, the Twins can control Polanco through the 2025 season for a total cost of just $47MM, with the final two seasons coming via option ($10.5MM/$1MM buyout, $12.5MM/$750K buyout).
Things are looking quite nice on the Kepler side of things as well. He inked a five-year, $35MM deal. The calculus was different from the get-go in his case, though the decision to make the deal was also driven by a belief that he was primed to improve. Kepler had already reached arbitration as a Super Two, agreeing to a $3.125MM salary with the organization earlier in the winter. With three more arb trips to build from that baseline, and a track record of solid home run production, Kepler was able to command a higher payday.
In some respects, this was the riskier deal for the team. True, he had shown plenty of skill: the 26-year-old had already cracked twenty long balls, turned in three seasons of .180+ isolated power, and made great strides in his plate discipline in 2018 (11.6% walk rate vs. 15.7% strikeout rate). He’s also regarded as a quality defensive outfielder. At the same time, it took a bit of a leap of faith to entrust this kind of cash in a corner outfielder that hadn’t yet turned in a full season of league-average production by measure of wRC+.
So far, so good. Kepler has already launched a dozen long balls in 211 plate appearances. He’s maintaining that strong K/BB blend. And he’s up to a .281 batting average on a .272 batting average on balls in play — a reversal of some poor fortune from 2018 (.224 batting average, .236 BABIP). Statcast credits him with more hard contact (44.5%) and a loftier launch angle (17.2 degrees) than ever before.
Kepler’s early showing surely makes the Twins feel even better about their commitment than they did at the time. Beyond the $35MM guaranteed, the Twins have another year of control at just $10MM ($1MM buyout).
Will Polanco and Kepler keep this up for the long haul? Or even the duration of the present season? That’s hard to say. A fair but conservative estimate would anticipate some regression. But it’d also recognize a very real increase in the present and anticipated future on-field value of these players.
While these contracts largely fell through the cracks at the time they were struck, they now look to be among the best buys of the spring. The team deserves credit for rightly identifying these targets. But it’s also a credit to Polanco and Kepler. They accepted reasonably fair deals, based upon their prior track records, then set to work turning those contracts into potential bargains. As for the Twins organization, these deals didn’t change the near-term complexion of the roster in the least. But they sure do help brighten the long-term outlook.
andrewgauldin
Polanco for MVP
Lefty Grove’s right hand
What happened to Ramirez??
24TheKid
Steroids and Brandon Dixon.
24TheKid
And one other small reason, his launch angle has seen an extreme increase every year. And this year it appears to have gone to far.
Lefty Grove’s right hand
At least he’s still getting a good amount of SB’s. That’s really the only thing going good for him.
dag1989
test
raz427
I had Twins winning the division prior to Spring Training. Loved their lineup and I thought it was very low key free agent signings on Cruz and Marwin. Kepler has taken a step forward along with Polanco. Buxton has matured into a big league hitter finally as well. Baldelli has pulled all the correct strings this year. I think he should runaway with MOY. He doesn’t have the talent or minor league depth that Boone/Hinch/Cora have. Twins are just a solid all around ball club. I enjoy watching them play, and I’m a dodger fan.
jrad2007
How does he not have minor league depth? The twins farm system is ranked 6th best in the MLB
raz427
That’s true. I jumped the gun on that part. Thank you for the clarification.
wjf010
Very little of that depth is at AAA
raz427
That’s what i was trying to get at. I don’t think any of those big time prospects are MLB ready yet in case they go down. I’d love to see them add another proven arm in that rotation. Possibly go after a Stroman.
puddles
I largely agree, though would point out that Boone has navigated a very good start to the year while missing a staggering amount of talent. That deserves commendation as well, though I suspect that sentiment will fade as the injured players return.
raz427
I agree he’s been great dealing with injuries all year long. However he’s had the luxury of having a deeper minor league system and proven MLB ready caliber talent to take place of injured guys. It’s between him and Rocco In my mind.
brewcrewer
I think the twins are in for a huge comeback to earth. right now they have played 14 games against teams over 500. 6-8 in those games. if they still win the division they will get easily handled by any other team in the playoffs (swept by Yankees probably).
Also, has anyone else noticed how crappy the schedule has been this year? Teams play the same out of division opponent two series a week apart and don’t see them again the rest of the year. Did the schedule makers change or something? its pretty horrible compared to years past
kleppy12
All statistics and metrics disagree with you.
martras
It’s easy to whoop up on the White Sox, Tigers, Orioles, Royals and Blue Jays. Those teams make up 26 games of the Twins’ season.
That said, expecting teams to have crazy winning records against teams over .500 is tough, but fair for elite teams.
The Twins can’t back up their run differential and elite record with quality opponents right now.
Sky14
The Yankees not only lost series to Detroit and the White Sox while getting swept by the Stros but have 23-4 record against the likes of the Royals, Baltimore, Seattle, the Angels, and San Francisco. So the Twins are unique here, they’re just doing it to a tune of a +110 run differential.
Begamin
instead of showing why or how statistics and metrics disagrees with brewcrewers post, he simply just says that it does and leaves it at that
big hmmmm in the chat
Gus Leggett
Let’s actually take a look at the stats. Currently, the Twins sit at 10-10 vs teams that are .500 or above. Only the Rays, Astros and A’s are better than .500 in that same category. I will agree that the Twins have an advantage in that they get to play the Tigers and Royals more often than those teams…or more often than the Yankees or Red Sox. Still, they have only played those teams in a series or 2 so far. Astros and A’s get to play the Rangers and Mariners more often. The Yankees, Rays and Red Sox get to play the Blue Jays and O’s more often.
Simply put, the Twins have taken advantage of playing the lesser teams from every division more often then the above teams. Good teams are supposed to feast on the bad teams, and the Twins are doing it. There are only 2 metrics out there where they are below .500. Twins are 3-4 vs the NL, and 5-6 vs lefties. But now that Sano is back in the lineup and once Cruz is back, the become dangerous vs lefties again.
24TheKid
Kinda seem like the 2018 Mariners?
Senioreditor
Or the 2001 Mariners.
Twinsfan333
Who knows you need to learn to just enjoy the season. I’m guessing you take your sports a tad too seriously. Its just entertainment and they are entertaining. Not sure what else matters. Try to enjoy life its short.
Begamin
Who said he isnt enjoying the season?
martras
Perhaps you can create a decision tree to help determine the appropriate level of seriousness with which a person should take sports?
brewcrewer
I’m enjoying the heck out of the season. I’m from Minneapolis and I’m just making an observation. Don’t just assign me a jerk tone because I disagree with you. They are piss pounding crap teams, I’m just saying they aren’t beating good teams (like the Brewers :)). Maybe it was the getting swept by the Yankees comment that rubbed you the wrong way, but it’s so true.
I hope that last part ages well in a few hours, will be a good game
Twinsfan333
I don’t agree or disagree. Maybe they will lose their next 37 games in a row? Point is don’t be the guy in life who lives to throw cold water on everything in life. Its a tell and will be of zero benefit to you.
Sky14
They’ve only played one series against an above .500 team at home so you’re judging them based off their away schedule against good teams. If they are about .500 against good teams away then they have pretty good chances in a series. Oh and they already won their season series against the Astros.
brewcrewer
True. the last sentence is part of my second point. why is the season series done already? that’s bogus! they are handling the bad teams to the point where if they lose 2/3 of their games against teams above 500 they would still win the division. I’m saying I would like to see them challenged before I’m a believer. Winning the worst division in baseball is different than making noise in the playoffs, and they haven’t shown that they can hang yet. They also haven’t had many opportunities to show it either
Sky14
That’s more fair, though I don’t see much parity in the AL. Think the Astros, Yankees, Red Sox, Rays and Twins are going to pile a lot of wins against the rest. Agreed on the scheduling, it does seem the out of division games are unusually clumped together.
bsteves35
Everybody just enjoy good baseball by a team that wasn’t supposed to be doing this. Quit hating. Man
DBTwinsFan
This week should tell us a lot about the 2019 Twins – 2 against Milwaukee at home and 4 on the road in Tampa. So far, so good.