By most measures, the 2019 campaign has been a very good one for the Phillies so far. The team is out to a 33-22 start, giving them a 3.5-game lead over the Braves in the National League East. Neither their lineup nor their pitching staff has been dominant, but the Phils’ +35 run differential is easily the best in their division. They’ve been a solid team — albeit in a division that’s been less competitive than many pundits anticipated prior to the season thanks to an awful start by the Nationals and a lackluster start from the Mets.
But the Phillies also entered the final week of May with a long list of injuries in the bullpen, and it’s only gotten worse over the past 24 hours. Right-hander Victor Arano, who has been out since mid April due to inflammation in his right elbow, underwent arthroscopic surgery yesterday, as NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury tweeted. Meanwhile, the team announced that lefty Adam Morgan, who is in the midst of the best season of his career, has been placed on the 10-day injured list due to a forearm strain.
There’s no clear timeline for the return of either hurler, though the Phillies should issue an update on Arano’s status in the near future. He’s not a household name by any means, but the 24-year-old has looked every bit the part of a big league reliever since breaking into the Majors in 2017. Through his first 74 2/3 innings, Arano owns a 2.65 ERA with 9.6 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9. He’s allowed just seven homers in that time while posting gaudy swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rates (16.6 percent and 36.1 percent, respectively).
Morgan, meanwhile, sports a 1.96 ERA through 18 1/3 innings in 2019. The 29-year-old former starter has an 18-to-5 K/BB ratio in that time and has held lefties to a .154/.313/.231 average while limiting righties to an even more putrid .114/.162/.301 slash.
That pair of injury updates comes in addition to ongoing absences for David Robertson (flexor strain), Pat Neshek (shoulder strain), Edubray Ramos (biceps tendinitis) and Tommy Hunter (flexor strain). Philadelphia has nearly an entire MLB-caliber bullpen on the injured list at present, and none of the bunch is even out on a minor league rehab assignment.
Unsurprisingly, The Athletic’s Jayson Stark tweets that the Phillies are likely to “aggressively” pursue bullpen upgrades following next week’s MLB draft. But while that might stoke some renewed speculation about a possible match with Craig Kimbrel, Stark also downplayed that possibility. Similarly, MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki suggests that a match between the Phillies and Kimbrel is still unlikely if Kimbrel is hoping to secure a multi-year deal. By all accounts, that’s the free-agent closer’s goal once he’s shed the burden of draft-pick compensation, so it doesn’t seem wise to pencil Kimbrel into the back of Gabe Kapler’s bullpen anytime soon.
Early June will still be too soon for some clubs to determine whether they’re full-on sellers, but there will be several clubs that have already accepted that fate — many of whom have some intriguing bullpen options to market. The Giants (Will Smith, Sam Dyson, Tony Watson), Tigers (Shane Greene) and Blue Jays (old friend Ken Giles?) are among the likely sellers of some high-end bullpen options, and none from that bunch has any designs on contending in their respective divisions at this juncture of the season. Specific targets will likely emerge as the Phils (and other teams) shift their focus beyond the draft, but they stand out as an obvious candidate to be among the game’s early buyers this year.
Philly could also be in the hunt for a starting pitcher, Jays could package Stroman and Giles.
What’s the return?
A Philly cheesesteak and a large order of fries…
But seriously, Stroman isn’t any better then what the Phillies have. If you look at underlying and adjusted metrics (FIP xFIP etc.) Stroman has only been a 3.75-4.10 ERA starter His hard contact rate is the highest of his career and his HR/FB ratio of 0.65 is probably going to regress a bit.
On the plus side, his ground ball rate is back up at 57%.but that’s countered by the lowest GB/FB ratio of his career. His FB ratio is up as well (25%) hence my projection that his HR/FB ratio is showing some good luck.
Stroman shouldn’t get more then a #3 or #4 starter return, at best.
Its not like he’s a guy like Eovaldi where his numbers look like a #3 or 4 but the eye test shows he can be a solid #2 when healthy and on. Stroman is just a run of the mill average starter.
Cherry pick those stats? I can do the same. Stroman has a 3.54 FIP which surely is more valuable than a #4. He also backs that with an ERA+ of 160. He may be allowing more hard contact, but players are hitting the ball where he wants.
Would you expect nothing less from a Red Sox fan?
Leave the AL East and Stroman’s a #2.
Philly is looking to play the postseason. Would Stroman be one of the 4 starters? Yep.
Would you mind having Stroman take the ball in a pressure cooker? You’d be happy with an experienced playoff pitcher not to mention the WBC tournament.
Since I added Giles to the deal, the return will be more than a #3 or #4 (whatever that means. We’re talking about prospects here). Your comment was nothing more than unfiltered hatred toward Stroman.
You know which team could use Stroman and Giles right now? The Boston Red Sox.
The ball is juiced.
Almost everybody
is hitting it harder!
That’s why I didn’t “cherry pick” as you are. I looked at xFIP, SIERRA as well as other indicators. Top to bottom, Stroman’s stats are average to sub-average.
I’m not saying there’s no value there at all. A #4 starter is still valuable. However, in the context of this conversation which is helping the Philadelphia Phillies, Stroman is not really a viable option. Its giving up assets for something you already have.
As someone suggested below, the Red Sox could use a stable #4 or 5 arm and that’s where Stroman could slot in if an in-division trade was to be struck. On the Phillies, he just replicates what they already have. Now a few days later and Eflin is injured as well, context changes as it will continue to all season. What won’t change is who Stroman is as a pitcher.
I don’t dislike Stroman at all actually. And #3 and 4 point to where he slots in most rotations, hence why he’s a #3 or #4 starter.
Someone being the #1 for the Marlins, Blue Jays, Orioles, etc. doesn’t mean they get a #1` or even #2 return. They get what the market says they are worth.
Even in Boston as you suggest, I’m not sure who you replace for Stroman that’s any different? Price Sale and Porcello are locks. E-Rod has pitched as well as Stroman in many regards with a higher K/9 (again, look at underlying metrics). He’s been the victim of some bad luck if you look at BABIP and HR/FB.
He could and would slot in well as the #5 starter. But that’s also about the return the Sox would offer to the Blue Jays. The Jays want a #1-#2 type return.
Giles is a reliever, so the return is likely to be modest. I think teams are starting to learn their lesson after watching what the Yankees did with Miller and Chapman (which was brilliant by the way).
What’s the return for Boyd and Greene?
I’m sure the Tigers would give away Jordan Zimmermann as a throw in with Daniel Norris, Shane Greene and any player in the bullpen. However, Matthew Boyd and Spencer Turnbull will cost someone big.
I see the most attractive Phillies: C Delvy Grullon, CF Roman Quinn, RHP JD Hammer, LHP Cole Irvin, RHP Connor Brogdon.
As it looks like Boyd’s turned a corner and Greene is already an established reliever, that would take a haul to pry from Detroit. Much different then the Stroman situation as well as Boyd has quite a few years of affordable team control left.
I would assume the conversation starts with 2 of their top 15-20 prospects + some other pieces. Which assets those are depends a lot on where Detroit sees themselves in the rebuild process.
next arm up
sorry let me rephrase that – #freeedwindiaz
What they got for MadBum and a reliever? Moniak+? Am I dreaming?
MadBum will be fun to discuss if and when he’s moved. I think the Giants are trying to bank on that. FIP and xFIP have always tagged MadBum as overrated, but this year actually the opposite is true. His FIP and xFIP are more consistent with his normal numbers for those categories. His ERA is inflated and not normal. Also interesting, he’s pitched better on the road (in quite a few hitters parks) then he has at home.
Advanced metrics have him on pace for an average to slightly below average MadBum season. Regular metrics show a different pitcher in many regards.
I think the Giants will have to take a #2-like return on their ace unfortunately. What will be interesting to see is if that’s a bargain buy for the buyer.
I said it 2 years ago when I felt the Giants should have rebuilt, MadBum should have been traded in 2017 at the deadline They ended that season with 64 wins and are now going to have to sell a bit lower then they like on their top assets because of age and injury.
The royals might have two fairly decent bullpen guys to trade – brad boxberger & Jake diekman. I think they’ll be available end of June if they continue to have decent outings. Ironically, diekman was originally drafted by the Phillies…..
i never want to hear the name Diekman again, much less have him on the team. Boxberger, meanwhile, is mediocre.
Haha DarkSide. I totally get that. Everyone wondered why the Red Sox with their rotation problems didn’t take a flyer on bringing back Clay Buchholz for a reunion and you could hear the groan in Boston from Los Angeles…
For now: Fernando Rodney
He got off to a shakey start, but I’ve always like Fernando Rodney. He was always a fun guy to watch. I think the extra time off, given his age could make for an interesting 2nd half for whoever snags him. I admittedly haven’t looked at what led to his issues in Oakland earlier this year (decreased velo, control/mechanics, etc.) but his numbers don’t necessarily reflect the very solid 2017 he had. He’s only 16-17 months from being a very solid back of the pen option.
I like the idea of snagging Rodney over a long-term deal for CK or giving up more assets for a guy who’s probably not going to do much better.
His straight baseball cap pointed to the side won’t be missed.
The statement about being a solid team, albeit in a shaky division is a bit odd when the Phillies are 18-13 against non division teams like the Brewers, Rockies, Cardinals, Cubs and twins. They are playing good baseball against good teams. This team definitely has a lot more upside then it is showing right now, but they are a legit contender in the NL. Who cares about the division. They play a long stretch against Braves, Mets, Nats and Marlins starting 6/14. They could go after outside bullpen help, or call up De Los Santos, Davis and Anderson from Lehigh Valley. Phillies actually have some pitching depth in the minors.
Agreed but the issue is the Phils don’t have the options at the high minors in the bullpen that they have confidence in. They’ve never given extended looks at Davis, Anderson, De Los Santos outside of garbage time/injury call-ups, hence why they’re constantly yo-yo’d between LV and Philly. I like De Los Santos’ long term potential out of that group but maybe he profiles as a reliever or LOOGY, which the Phils may say he holds more value then as a trade asset if a team was desperate/interested in grooming him to be a starter?
Adding VV to the bullpen and the resurgence of Hector Neris has been great but I think the Phillies are still a little thin with no timetable for any of these relievers to come back. They’ll most likely acquire a second tier bullpen piece to help hold down the fort with the guys you mentioned to fill out the pen.
While the guys the giants have are popular names, I see SF dragging that out to max their return. I don’t see the Phillies getting into a bidding war when most of their top prospects are probably off-limits. If the Phillies dig into their talent pool, I could see them targeting a young arm that could start or be groomed into a multi-inning role (hence why they offered Eovaldi a contract to be a reliever). A player like Aaron Sanchez or Adam Conley, they could also try to buy on a younger starter like Boyd or acheaoer option like Daniel Mengden of Oakland.
An interesting possibility is if the Nationals are out of it by the ASG, would they entertain sending Doolittle to Philly? Philly has interest in Doolittle before he was traded to DC and while the Nats may be hesitant, they could demand more from thePhillies to make it happen.
Don’t think it’ll hurt them. The Braves can’t mount a threat and the Nationals pen is garbage too.
Please, I beg you, take any of the RP’s from the Mariners BP. Put us out of our misery
The injuries might be mounting, but the young guys that have been called up are holding their own. Let’s also not forget that VV is now in that pen and could be (notice I said ‘could be”) almost as good as a FA acquisition.
Even with all the injuries, they’ve been solid. Especially this last stretch against the Rockies, Brewers, Cards, and Cubs. For the most part, these “replacements” have done admirably well. Especially Neris. Whatever he did last year in LHV after he got sent down really worked. I just hope he can keep it up.
What’s the return for Boyd and Greene?
Not to be a jerk but I do not think Philly has the prospects to get Boyd and Greene.
Now a Greene for Haseley deal looks about right.
Haseley won’t be moved for a reliever, straight up. Boyd and Greene combined might bring back Haseley, P Adonis Medina and C Devi Grullon.. If Odubel Herrera, had value for Detroit, he could be part of a package for Greene., Doobie and Haseley won’t both be moved.
I understand you point on Haseley. Though Boyd’s value is more than your suggested offer. Not to be crazy but a Bohm/Medina/Haseley deal would be close and that is too much for Philly to give up so that is why I do not see them as a match. Those three are good prospects but none seem like impact prospects imo.
Haseley looks ready to punch his big league ticket this summer. Phils have no legit CF….
Phillies are limited in what they’re gonna be able to acquire because most of their high end prospects will most likely be off-limits. Haseley may have been a likely piece in a deal last year or in ST but with the domestic violence suspension to Odubel Herrera plus the lack of left handed hitters and centerfield options (which fit both Haseley and Moniak), it seems unlikely the Phils will move either one until Roman Quinn’s groin heals up/they get more evidence on the Herrera case. Plus Haseley was promoted to AAA last night, so it’s conceivable the Phils have plans to possibly add him for the stretch run in July/August.
Similar return for what you got for David Price. Maybe less.
I disagree. Boyd with 3 more years of control and only making 2.6 million a year right now would hold much more value then Price who was a pending free agent.
Boyd is nowhere near 2015-calibre David Price. Price was a perennial Cy Young candidate. Take into account pre-2019 Matt Boyd and he holds very little value compared to David Price. That division with those ballparks plus the lack of good weather means it can only get worse for Boyd. Might not, but I wouldn’t bet on Boyd sustaining this.
I am not saying Boyd is the same caliber as a 2015 D Price. I am not even saying Boyd will not regress some this year. Though advanced metrics support his breakout as legit. So by regress I mean from an #1SP like he is pitching now to level out as a possible #2SP or a top end #3SP on a potential playoff team. That type of pitcher with 3 more years of control has more value than a rental 2015 D Price. Quintana trade return is a solid comparison and what the Tigers would want for Boyd.
I like the Price comparison. The GM giving up Quintana talent for Boyd will be fired within a year and a half. GM’s want to trust Boyd in that park in that weak division with tough parks within the division. Overwhelming majority don’t, and those who believe in Boyd won’t give up what you think they should.
Dustin, unfortunately, the common misunderstandings I run into in these comment threads is that people do not understand team control or the business side of baseball.
A rental and a trade for a multi-year asset can’t really be compared much.
Jake Arrieta and Madison Bumgarner would be great together.
Would love to go after a SP and RP in same package.
Stroman/Giles
Bumgarner/Smith
I’d stretch for a Duffy/Diekman
A tough luck veteran with a decent 4.30 xFIP who is a strong groundballer and has NEVER BEEN INJURED, for less than $1 million? Sounds pretty good. Sign Chris Volstad