Back in 2017, Andrew Cashner posted a solid 3.40 ERA in 28 starts and parlayed that into a two-year, $16MM deal in Baltimore despite the fact that he ranked at the bottom of the league in terms of strikeout rate and swinging-strike rate in the season leading up to free agency. The contract almost seemed destined to be a misstep, and his 2018 campaign indeed looked regrettable. Cashner logged a 5.29 ERA with 5.8 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, a career-high 1.49 HR/9 and a career-low 40.4 percent ground-ball rate. His once blazing fastball checked in at a pedestrian average of 92.4 mph.
On the heels of that showing, the new Orioles front office, led by former Astros assistant GM Mike Elias, was understandably interested in clearing Cashner’s salary off its books. Cashner, after all, has a $10MM vesting option for the 2020 season that kicks in if he reaches 187 frames this year, and while that’d be a career-high for him, it’s not out of the realm of possibility. Given that context, it wasn’t much of a surprise when The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported earlier this week (subscription required) that Baltimore was willing to eat virtually all of Cashner’s 2019 salary in Spring Training to facilitate a trade. Obviously, nothing came together.
The 2019 season is only a quarter through, but Cashner suddenly looks more like a passable fifth starter than he did a year ago. Through 48 1/3 innings, he’s averaged 7.5 K/9 against 3.4 BB/9 with a revitalized 51.7 percent grounder rate. His velocity is actually up to 93.5 mph on average, and Cashner’s 9.2 percent swinging-strike rate is the highest it’s been since way back in 2012. Cashner is throwing more four-seamers and more changeups, and he’s generally received more positive results. A contending club with a thin rotation could probably acquire Cashner for little more than a bit of salary relief and use him fifth starter. The upside in that scenario is minimal, however, and Cashner’s vesting option would be a deterrent for any interested team.
The more intriguing scenario would be for one of the many bullpen-needy teams — the Braves, Twins, Red Sox, Dodgers, Brewers or even the Cubs (his original club) — to acquire Cashner and drop him directly into the bullpen. This isn’t exactly a revolutionary concept. Putting Cashner in the bullpen has been a suggestion for years (hence this post’s title). But it’s also a fact that there are very few teams willing to sell at this point in the season, and the ones who are willing to do so would put a high price on most bullpen targets given the short supply of available arms in mid May. That’s unlikely to be the case with the Orioles and Cashner. Elias & Co. know full well that they’ll be summer sellers, and they’d be happy to shed whatever they can of the $5.89MM that remains on Cashner’s 2019 salary.
Beyond that is the fact that there’s some evidence to suggest that Cashner would thrive in shorter stints. Opponents are hitting just .212/.272/.347 against Cashner the first time through the order so far in 2019, and he’s struck out 24.7 percent of the hitters he’s faced the first time through as well. Cashner’s velocity will quite likely tick up even further in shorter stints, which could help him to improve on that ability to miss bats, but he’s already sporting a 3.50 xFIP when facing opponents for the first time in a game. That alone is worthy of intrigue, particularly given the minimal cost of acquisition. Putting Cashner in the ’pen also mitigates any concern about his vesting option, and while he may prefer to work as a starter and have a chance to lock in that 2020 salary, he’d set himself up for a solid payday next winter if he can thrive in a multi-inning relief role.
This time of year, there are far more clubs looking for bullpen help than there are arms available. That’s not going to enhance Cashner’s trade value much — the O’s probably won’t get much beyond some salary relief — but the lack of available alternatives should still lead teams to explore the idea of finally converting him into a full-time reliever.
Agreed. Some below average starters hang on too long.
Look at Liriano. . Shaky 4-5 inning starter but strong out of the pen because he can just give It all he’s got for an inning, and guys can’t sit on his wipeout slider as much.
Playing devil’s advocate here. Is there something to be said for he could get injured trying to switch to a new pitching role mid-season? Like it’s one thing if this were a rookie told in December ‘come into camp ready to be a reliever’ but this is a 30+ year old veteran who has only ever worked as a starter.
Can you explain how it would be possible for him to get injured as a direct result of pitching less? He warms up like any other pitcher and he’d be putting less stress on his throwing arm.
manos, it is possible considering that as a reliever he would be expected to pitch more frequently than once every 5-6 days. I don’t think it’s likely but it is definitely a potential outcome.
He would have to heat up more often than a starter,so he could injure himself that way.
He could actually come in as the second pitcher every 4 days or so in an opener scenario for three innings. The Rays would jump on that.
His best bet would be a 3/$21M contract as a reliever.
Possibly, sure. Cashner did work as a reliever way back in 2011, but that was when he was first breaking in and was projected to develop into a starter.
He’d need to be on board, and maybe he’d struggle to acclimate to airing it out in 30-40 pitch bursts, resting for a couple of days and then getting back up to do it again. But it is something he’s done before.
From his vantage point, it’s also a chance to go from a last place team to a prominent role on a contender. There’s plenty of reason for him to buy in.
From the theoretical acquiring team’s vantage point, the cost of acquisition will be fairly low, and there just aren’t many options out there right now outside of DFA fodder.
He’s been a reliever before. He worked exclusively as a relief pitcher his rookie year and only had 5 starts his first year with the padres.
False. He has not always been a starter. He came up with the Cubs as a reliever before starting.
Isn’t Mat Latos still available????
Cashner was hitting 96 pretty often against the Yankees yesterday.
Usually he sits low 90s, but I noticed that too. He’d probably sit mid 90s if in the pen. I remember when the orioles moved tommy hunter to reliever, he added around 7 mph to his fastball.
Yes he was and he has at times looked very good this season. Rather than move him to the pen he makes a lot more sense to me as a Wade Miley-type starter. Twice through the lineup then turn it over to others. That said, Cashner is wired to want to go as deep as possible in games, so I’m not sure (just to bring in the human element here) how much he’d embrace lesser roles (though potential unemployment could influence his attitude).
He’s also wired monetarily to want to go deeper into games with his current contract.
Yes was thinking that too as that’ll up his value.
I’ve never understood why Cashner hasn’t been tried as a reliever, especially earlier in his career when he was touching triple digits. Most great relievers are failed starters, and I do think Cashner could be much more valuable in a Josh Hader-like multi-inning role. I also believe this would be true of Jeff Samardzija
He was the Padres closer for a short time
Not closer, but in the bullpen
Would welcome him back in the roll. Stammen struggling. Bullpen thin.
Are you thinking of Heath Bell?
I know this season (and the next) are lost seasons for the Orioles, but they literally have no one in the minors to step in and replace Cashner in the rotation. As it stands they may end up needing to go with 13 pitchers because only have 1 guy who has consistently gotten through 6 innings.
That is the truth but there’s no way they want to risk guaranteeing Cashner’s salary next season. I can’t imagine they don’t explore all options to trade him. You’d have to hope Cobb comes back and can eat innings at some point. Cashner is owed 10 million bucks plus incentives next year. We ought to use that money to sign 2-3 rebound candidates for the rotation next season. Because as it stands Cobb, Bundy, and Means are the only guys I can see being in that rotation. Maybe Akin if he does well this year but we don’t have much in the way of immediate pitching help.
I think there are strong reasons to put Bundy in the bullpen as well. Usually dominant in the first three innings then gets pounded in the 4th.
I’m not opposed to that idea either. I think that would make it an even greater need to move Cashner. We need to make sure he doesn’t hit those innings limits. That way we can add multiple starters on cheap deals this offseason.
I’m hoping Dean Kremer is another guy who can take a rotation spot next year but we are paper thin in the SP depth department. Hess, Rogers, Yefry, yacabonis etc. are not ML caliber SP’s. And I doubt Tate, Harvey or Ortiz are either at this point. We really need to be in on reclamation projects and innings eaters this offseason. Until we have our best guys— Lowther, Rodriguez, Knight and Hall ready to go. But that’s years off before you’d see all of them together and inevitably at least one will go up in smoke before then.
Sadly, no one in the O’s rotation deserves to be a starter on a major league team. But someone has to.
Oriole starting pitching hasn’t been great but it’s been better than their bullpen. The bullpen has been awful. John Means has pitched so well as a starter this year there’s an All-Star game possibility. Cashner is fine as a starter this year. The only reason we’re having this discussion is because of the option kicking in next year if he meets a certain number of frames.
Bundy has looked much better lately after not throwing well early on. The bullpen talk about him is overblown and probably only a possibility if he were traded.
Alex Cobb is a proven starter but can’t stay healthy, same with Nate Karns. Though Cobb in particular has been terrible. The other Oriole starters that haven’t shown they belong in the rotation are Dan Straily, David Hess and Mike Wright, and Wright got traded already.
Basically the Orioles traded away their best relievers last year except for Givens and Bleier, and Bleier has been awful this year. Their bullpen is perhaps their worst ever. By the answer isn’t to move your decent starters into your bullpen if you have no one to replace them.
He looked like a number 1 against Toronto. Then again, so did Jordan Zimmermann.
Cashner should be a better starting pitcher. Then again, we could have said the same thing about Wade Davis in Tampa. Maybe Cashner has a run in the bullpen left in him.
i actually thought moving him from BAL could help him some given his 2017 numbers vs his 2018 numbers. some contender could perhaps buy low on him and get lucky.
If cashner is on or even close to the pace to hit his 187 innings I can’t imagine him being agreeable to going to the bullpen. If you look at his incentive structure he really has every incentive to be a starter. Even if he doesn’t hit the 187 innings mark it’s obviously in his wallets best interest for him to start.
spotrac.com/mlb/baltimore-orioles/andrew-cashner-7…
I would think Cashner would be amenable to the switch. There’s zero chance the O’s allow the incentives to kick in, and as it is now, he approaches 2020 as a version of Homer Bailey; a minor league invite, or 2-3M is max.
But as a reliever, especially a “bulk” guy, I can even see the potential for a multi-year deal. There’s talent there, IMHO, and he’s young enough. Now it’s a question of using it in the most productive way, for both him and the team.
Can he adjust? It’s easier to be bulk reliever in the Show than a 2nd starter in Norfolk; they ain’t got no Baseball Sallies in Norfolk!
Andrew Cashner is realistically our #2 starter in the major leagues. I posted his incentive bonus structure above and there’s much more than just hitting 187 innings. If he’s in Baltimore all year there’s 0 chance he’d be a reliever and Idk if any team would gamble on him being a significant relief pitcher addition at the deadline without seeing him do it.
My thought was he wouldn’t be in Baltimore….I can see several teams that would be interested. Salary adjustments and all that of course.
THE CUBS WANTED HIM TO STAY IN THE BULLPEN BUT HE WANTED TO START! Got Rizzo for him so it worked out. Hehe
Josh Field redo…. long relief, spot starter and occasional late inning help. Nice pick up for most teams – would prefer him over Baez in LA
$9.5mil is a lot for any relief pitcher, let alone one who hasn’t proved his worth out of the pen. He could be a good weapon for a contending team for sure, but the O’s will have to pick up a bunch of that salary. But if they take $3mil or more, I’d trade for him.
If he does so well against the lineup the first time, then why not use him as a opener?
He got drafted for the 3rd time after excelling as a reliever at TCU. This has been a no brainer his entire career. Sure they gave it shot, up and down returns. But this guy’s always been destined to the bullpen.
Baltimore’s spending on pitching the last 5 or so years is hilarious… Seriously wtf were they thinking with their free agent sp signings?
Baltimore traded away several good young prospects – like Josh Hader and Eduardo Rodriguez – to get win-now players. Then in the off-season they wait to sign the free agent starters no one else has signed, who had a couple good years but some fringey ones too, and pay them for too much and too long. What they needed to do, but didn’t have the patience, is stop trading away some of their best pitching prospects, and trade for more of them instead. But management and the fans knew that had a window of opportunity for only so long. Looking back it wasn’t realistic they could win a WS in that window with that rotation, but they went for it anyway and made some bad trades and signings in the process. Can’t really blame them for trading Arrietta though, but they didn’t get enough for him.
Ian Kennedy type of situation
Sounds like a Pittsburgh Pirate to me.
The problem is if they trade Cashner they’ll need to get someone who can step in and replace him now. He’s been a decent starter this year, and if they replace him with another bad starter it will only tax the bullpen even more. I know this team is not going anywhere but the games have got to eventually end and you don’t players getting hurt because they are logging too many innings while getting rocked. Most likely the Orioles will need to replace Andrew Cashner with another veteran anyway, this season and next