Click here to read a transcript of today’s live chat with Tim Dierkes.
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Sorry I missed this chat. Here are three questions someone out there might be able to help me with: 1) there are innumerable calculations that hinge on the offensive and defensive outcomes of every pitch to every batter in every game. How are all of these actually tracked? 2) how do they measure “barrels”? 3) just for fun, what could the White Sox get in return for Eloy Jimenez before his hype wears off?
In this era of shifts I’m still trying to figure out how defensive metrics are accurate
They are not accurate for individuals in the age of the shift. Never have been for less than 450 games of data.
Now its questionable if they are even for an entire team. ALL the defensive metrics are based on balls hit to a certain zone and that zone does not take into account shifts.
“…that zone does not take into account shifts.”
Not sure that’s correct. The center of any zone is where the player is. Outfielders have shifted one way or another for probably as long as the game has been played.. The zone moves with the player. It would be absurd, if the center-fielder shifted toward RF with a LHH at the plate, but the zone was still straight-away center. I doubt the guy that invented UZR would be so stupid to not have the zone shift with the player.
That is not how either DRS or UZR work. They have a zone that the players are “supposed” to be in. They do not take into account the shift or player positioning on individual plays at all.
I have talked to Lichtman many times about different aspects of Sabremetrics and on this subject he said there is no way to determine player positioning on individual plays since it is not charted in every game.
Go read how they calculate the zones.
In the case of a player catching a ball when in an extreme shift like a 3B playing on the 1B side of 2B, that would be an OOZ catch. It would actually be weighted heavier even though it may be a very easy catch because of positioning.
That is exactly why Lichtman has said multiple times in SABR conferences and interviews that UZR should only be used with 450+ games of data.
That you don’t know who developed UZR is telling.
Defensive position is charted in every game, now that we are in the statcast era. The issue is that statcast data on it isn’t readily available.
Beyond that, every team has it’s own internal metrics, most definitely including positioning. Again, we just don’t have that data in the public forum.
Shifts are irrelevant to defensive metrics. I don’t know everything they look at, but I know every position has an area in which the ball is expected to be fielded. Some guys, with bad defensive metrics can’t make plays within their zone, while good fielders will make plays outside of it.
Not sure what the determinations are, but also plays are judged as routine, likely, even, unlikely, remote, and impossible. Really good fielders will make plays on more unlikely and remote chances than bad fielders.
I’m sure there are lots of other factors. But clearly guys are still diving for balls, or making over-the-shoulder catches with their backs to the iF, or taking HRs away from balls over the wall. The shift might take away some hits, but good defense is still needed.
You admittedly have no clue how UZR or DRS are calculated and yet you somehow feel you should argue the point?
The zone does not move with the play. Even easy plays that are not within that zone are scored as an out of zone or OOZ play and so they are graded as a better play.
Now if you are talking about “routine, likely, even, unlikely, remote, and impossible” in terms of StatCast, then you would be correct.
Your next step would be to actually learn how UZR and DRS are calculated. Then find out who developed each stat and talk to them about it. THEN you could have an intelligent conversation about those stats.
I never understood why anyone would care about any of that crap! Play ball!! To hell with shifts, or zones, there should be rules for playing out of position. Metrics are taking the game and ruining it!
The one argument I would make for OPS is that it’s a simple calculation for fans to make themselves, without the need for advanced math. I know wRC+ is the superior stat, but I have no idea how to calculate that or wOBA. Most telecasts will give you the basic slash line, and OPS can be added up in your head. And it still gets you to the same place. You can be confident that anyone with an OPS over .800 is having an excellent year.
What IS the calculation for OPS? Do you know? Or would you have to Google it?
Not just talking about adding up BA, OBP and SLG, I mean how each of those components of OPS is calculated.
Don’t be insulting. I can calculate BA given the numbers of hits and ABs, which is no factor in OPS. And yes given the number of hits and walks and PAs I can calculate OBP. And I can also calculate SLG knowing the TBs and ABs.
But can you read? I already stated, given the slash line, that I could come up with OPS, which literally means OBP plus SLG.
What is the formula to calculate SLG?
What you are really telling me is that you DON’T know the formulas and have to rely on others to do the math. That anything beyond addition is advanced math.
Google could probably tell you.
Are you really that obtuse? Since I already told you the necessary numbers to calculate SLG, TBs and ABs, the simple math should not be a hindrance. It’s basically BA, but using TBs instead of hits. TBs/ABs.
What gives you the idea that I don’t understand this? I’ve been calculating these stats since elementary school, mostly for myself, but also for some teammates.
Ok, who peed in Koamalu’s cornflakes?
Agreed
And we wonder why baseball is dying. A bunch of angry old men arguing about stats.
The fact that they’re not arguing things like ‘wins’ and RBI as if they were stats is a step in the right direction
No one is going to trade for Chris Owings. Peralta walks too many. I think diekman is the only one moved in July (and maybe homer bailey) I’m not sure about Duffy….we need all the arms we have for starters & we don’t have much else to start if we made a trade like that (plus, Duffy would not want to play elsewhere).
I was all set to defend Tim from the carefully placed “hater” until he answered the perfectly reasonable response for a justification for combining OBP and SLG with “1) there is no justification for combining OBP and SLG”. Your reader literally gave you a valid justification, but you chose to use that as a platform to laud your “superior knowledge” of ridiculous tertiary stats and alienate more of your fan base. Congrats! You’re awesome and all of your readers are stupid. You win internetz!
Are you literally incapable of listening to the people who choose to populate your site and keep it alive? I’m sure you don’t care and this comment will likely get deleted, but you lost a fan today.