It’s no surprise this has been a lean year for the rebuilding Tigers, who sit near the bottom of the majors at 20-32 through two months. A team can still be entertaining even if it’s not good enough to contend, but the Tigers have largely failed in that respect. If you like offense, you should probably avoid watching Detroit. The Tigers rank second to last in the majors in runs (180) and wRC+ (74), leading only the Marlins in those categories, while they’re better than just the Fish and the Giants in OPS (.658).
Part of the Tigers’ problem has been the sharp decline of future Hall of Fame first baseman Miguel Cabrera, whose long-running days as a force may be gone. With a .294/.368/.369 line, Cabrera’s one of just two qualified hitters on this year’s Tigers with a wRC+ of 100 (league average), but that’s not saying much in his case. After all, Cabrera is one of the greatest hitters ever, a former Triple Crown winner and the owner of a magnificent .316/.394/.547 slash with 2,730 hits and 467 home runs across 9,895 plate appearances. He also boasts a 148 wRC+ that ranks 32nd in the history of the game.
After debuting with the aforementioned Marlins as a 20-year-old wunderkind in 2003, Cabrera became a perennial 30-home run threat and has since hit at least that many in 10 seasons. The right-hander blasted 38 HRs in 2016, which is looking more and more like the final high-power season he’ll ever have. Cabrera notched 16 in 529 trips to the plate in 2017 and then three in an injury-shortened, 157-PA campaign last season.
Through 212 PA this year, his age-36 season, Cabrera has added a meager two HRs to his ledger. Perhaps of greater concern, Cabrera possesses the majors’ third-lowest ISO (.075), bettering only two members of the Marlins’ dreary offense – Miguel Rojas and Starlin Castro – in that category. Even though Cabrera’s .149 mark from 2017-18 was between 12 and 22 points below league average in those seasons, it looks appealing compared to where he stands nowadays. What’s alarming is that there’s not much evidence to suggest Cabrera is due for an enormous turnaround. Given that Cabrera’s one of the game’s slowest runners, it’s unlikely his .371 batting BABIP will stick around and continue to help prop up his batting average. And while Cabrera’s expected weighted on-base average (.336) does outpace his real mark (.322), it’s closer to middle of the pack than exceptional.
On one hand, it seems unwise to shovel dirt on the career of a two-time MVP and 11-time All-Star. It’s quite possible, though, that age has reduced Cabrera to an unspectacular offensive player who’s neither all that valuable in the field nor on the bases. That sounds a lot like the Angels’ Albert Pujols, a baseball luminary who has become a replacement-level player (or worse) in recent seasons.
Pujols’ enormous contract – a 10-year, $240MM albatross that runs through 2021 – has weighed the Angels down during his decline phase and will continue to do so until it expires. Detroit may be in the same position with Cabrera, whom it signed to an eight-year, $248MM extension entering the 2014 season. Cabrera will make a $30MM salary through 2021 and $32MM between 2022-23 before the Tigers buy him out for $8MM (in lieu of a $30MM club option) going into 2024. But Cabrera may already be amid an irreversible downward spiral with $151MM left on his deal, which is a horrifying possibility for the Tigers.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
I think the power will come back. Maybe not 38 homer power. But 20 is reachable. It’s still early. And swinging to make contact is a good sign. Swinging to hit homers. He’s working his way up. 4 more years, After this one. It’s a long haul to say he’s done. He’s Hitting near .300 !
He’s just back from an injury and they’ve already said it’s gonna take time getting his power back due to that very injury. MLBTR you’ve really thrown Miggy down the river.
The saying is *sold down the river*, but better to use *thrown Miggy under the bus*
I agree, no sense over swinging into another injury. Best to give it time to heal without over stressing it. Tigers should be happy just to keep him on the field all season. After an injury, off field problems, his home countrymen caught in a political quagmire. Give the man a break.
Yep, they sold him under the bus 🙂
…without a paddle.
I apprecilate the reference
His lifetime slugging percentage is .557, not .457. I know it’s just a typo but there have been a lot of these mistakes lately. Let’s clean it up, MLBTR.
Ok I was going to say an .850 OPS does not sound right for him even with a couple years of decline.
Man, no kidding. I was staring at that line thinking he might not be the first ballot HOFer I thought he was.
You’re not allowed to criticize that article! These poor souls work for no pay and as an extra job because they love it! Therefore they are immune to criticism!
We’re paid. Criticize away. (That typo is now fixed.)
One of the best comments I’ve ever read here.
Welcome to 2019 america, The more free stuff you give people, the more they complain.
Not sure I care for the new direction this site is taking, but, so long as you guys still do concise articles about trades\unjuries\etc…Ill be around.
If they dumped the comment section, I understand the irony, they would be less ESPNy…
A lot of the people who post comments follow statistics and perform their own analysis while presenting interesting arguments and ideas. I would think the comment section helps the writers here, apart from being a little over-emotional sometimes.
Appreciate the feedback. We are working on some changes, but our core coverage and approach will not change.
I love these kinds of articles, so to each their own I guess. Nothing wrong with a good editorial as long as it isn’t presented as fact
I’m surprised. I didn’t know that the AL had position players that could hit. The DH allows players that wouldn’t rise above AAA in the NL a career path in the AL.
I love when the pitcher bats in NL games. I know I can go use the bathroom and not miss anything.
Especially when watching the Cubs… Madden usually has the pitcher bat 8th… you don’t have to hurry that dump.
You do know that the universal DH is almost certainly a part of one of the next 2 CBA.
I still don’t understand the NL “elitist” attitude. Why do you want to risk your expensive pitchers getting hurt? Why do you want to be at a disadvantage in the World Series by not having a power hitter ready to slot in at DH?
I get the desire to have the whole league abandon the DH, but that is not just unlikely. Its never going to happen. The most likely scenario is a universal DH in the next 5-10 years. Why keep fighting it? This is going to give NL teams a huge boost in run production. One #9 hitter gone. One #4 hitter in. It does take away some defensive versatility involving roster construction, but the pros outweigh the cons.
Actually, the DH gives the NL team the advantage, as their poor hitting pitchers are replaced by a good hitter. The AL teams have the disadvantage of batting a pitcher who has may not have swung a bat all season.
Besides, the NL has their version of the DH, usually in the form of a corner outfielder.
I don’t call myself an elitist. I call myself an NL fan. And you are an AL demanding to change the type of baseball I enjoy watching, which makes you an overreacher, Chief.
There are quite a few good hitting pitchers. Maybe MLBTR can do an article on that so you AL guys with gigantic heads can figure something out.
Wheeler and Greinke are just two. Every NL team has one pitcher who rakes during BP (probably bc he played SS or 1B in high school/college) and the others make it a competition. Heck, the entire LA pitching staff has more sac bunts than strikeouts at the plate. That takes skill. Excelling at skills is what makes one win ballgames.
The myth of the pitcher who “rakes” is just that, a myth. Since coming to the NL with Milwaukee Greinke has a 227/268/328 line. That isn’t raking, that’s not good enough for a defensive minded SS. Being better than an automatic out doesn’t make you good.
Pitchers can’t hit, time to move out of the 1950s.
And wheeler, 153/166/201… man he really hits the cover off the ball huh? Let me guess you’re going to counter with his 2019 line that’s all of 25 ABs
I like watching good-hitting pitchers bat. Pointis, there are some weak hitters in both leagues. I would simply like to see the same rules in both leagues. With or without the DH.
Bumgarner and Kershaw both wield a good stick the plate too. I truly will be sad when the NL gets the DH. I mean come on, we wouldn’t get to see Bartolo at the plate otherwise, which is one of those treats that just makes baseball sooo entertaining and more than just a sport. Kind of like Pablo Sandoval pitching. A fan of any team can enjoy those moments.
Kershaw has a career line of 161/.206/.184/.390 over 690 AB. This means he can’t hit, which is why he’s a pitcher. If he had any offensive value a team would want him contributing in 150+ games, not 30-34. Babe Ruth was a fantastic pitcher. When they discovered he he hit like Babe Ruth they made him a mediocre OF.
The National League just puts their DH’s at 1B and RF. If you hit well enough, you’ll find a job in MLB regardless of the league.
In his last 90 games/321 ABs, he has 5 home runs.
His power is cooked. And when that BABIP craters (it’s simply not sustainable), that empty batting average will go too.
A real shame, he was a supreme hitter. No more.
Comerica is not an easy place to hit bombs. Both homeruns coming on the road against the White Sox and Mets. He’s gone from a Triple Crown threat to a professional hitter. Clearly still has competitive at bats.
Tiger fans – c’mon. Why aren’t we talking about the future of this organization instead of hoping Miggy resurrects himself. He’ll perform like Victor did at the end, so don’t expect much. The bigger question is why hasn’t the team shown any signs of a positive path toward rebuilding? Where’s all these top prospects they traded for that were suppose to be major league ready. It’s time for Alvia to go!
The Tigers rebuild came on pretty suddenly. I think right now they are still assessing what they have. There’s been a lot of front office movement over the last few years from Ilitch passing to Dombrowski heading to Boston. I”m sure they are taking their time to properly assess what they have.
But I do totally agree that its time to start pulling strings and making moves to set this organization up for the future and assessing whether you’ve made the right moves thusfar.
Unfortunately at his age 36 season victor had one of his best seasons of his career. He still hit for power and average and hardly struck out. You can pretty much only say miggy hits for average at this point
These prospects are 22-24. How many years did the Astro’s, Brave’s, & Ray’s take? Maybe that should be where to set the bar, & not a year 2. As far as not resigning Iggy and McCann, I’m right there!
Sorry Detroit fans. Like us Sox fans and Dustin Pedroia, the end is nigh and its really sad to see. Miggy hurts even more then Pedroia for Boston, because his downfall not only led to his own demise, but it also resulted in Verlander being traded and resurrecting himself in Houston instead of Detroit. The downfall of Miggy began the rebuild of the Tigers and its looking more and more like the right decision.
For Cabrera, what bad thing could you possibly have to say about this guy? He was never a Machado or A-Rod (always putting themselves in the media crosshairs), but he in my opinion was a better overall hitter then both and the only right-handed bat that can be compared to the likes of Manny Ramirez & Mike Trout from a pure hitting perspective in this generation of ballplayers (no disrespect to any names not mentioned).
First ballot Hall of Fame. No steroid controversy. No off-field controversy. I look forward to the farewell tour and giving a generational level superstar the standing ovation he deserves.
Quick RIP for IMHO one of the best owners to his team’s fans, the man who shelled out every dollar he could to try to bring a ring to Detroit including inking the Cabrera deal. RIP Mike Ilitch. I was really hoping he’d get his ring before he passed.
Verlander had already resurrected his career in Detroit. If you look at his stats in Detroit the year he was traded they’re just as good as when he got to Houston
No off-field controversy? Pick up a Midwest area newspaper or check another web site. The guy’s life is and has been full of off-field antics for years.
Oh, and enjoy the ride for now. DD will do to Boston exactly what he did in Detroit. Spend until the owners say “No more” (Already there?) and drain the minors of any sign of MLB potential talent.
But win while doing so. Not a bad trade-off.
You think Detroit didn’t win? Detroit was a powerhouse for a lot of years from 2006 to 2014. Not every great team wins a title and that era of Detroit baseball will be one of history’s best forgotten teams. So if you think 6+ years of crap is a good trade off for (maybe) one WS, well, enjoy.
In a 30 team league, odds should be that each wins a WS every 30 years. It took the Cubs over a hundred years, and the Tigers have 4 in their history. Yeah, I will take the 6 years of crap as a trade-off any day of the week for a single world series title. Only the Yankee fandom would think otherwise.
I enjoy the DD days very much. These last few winters have sucked, knowing your team is not going to make one decent move.
We all hoped Mike would get his ring before passing. But take a look at what, his first 10-12 years of ownership? No effort shown to win much.
The rebuilding of the Tigers came when Dombrowski had nothing in the minors to trade, and he moved Price to Toronto for prospects, which got him fired. Miggy’s performance had nothing to do with the rebuild starting. His injuries occurred after. As to his BABIP, perhaps it’s high because the man can actually hit, a forgotten skill in this swing for the fences age.
I gave this comment a like just for using the word “nigh”.
And people wonder why owners are reluctant to throw around money blindly nowadays.
This is one of the toughest discussions to have. Players seem to get hurt more now then ever before. The players haven’t gotten softer. Their bodies take more and more of a beating each year.
My father-in-law always points to these 30+ contracts that worked out well in the 90’s (he’s a big Yankees fan and the Yanks signed a lot of those in those days). But the game has changed. Put whatever reason you want here, I won’t argue it. All points are valid.
Look at the top 10 in average. 1 person is 30+. Michael Brantley. Obviously, that will change. OPS the first guy over 30 on the list is a special kind of hitter in J. D. Martinez at #20. Freddy Freeman and Arenado are close to 30 and ahead on the list, but not yet.
My point is really, pick your stat. The young guys dominate this league statistically and that trend is now moving to dominating the league financially. The days of big contracts after about the age 27-28 season outside of the top 5-10 players in the league are over. May as well make an official statement.
And the players are dead wrong if they strike against the league for realizing this.
Because they care about profits more than winning. Illitch gave no -fill in the blank- and was willing to pay whatever he thought he was necessary to build a winning, may he rest in peace
But how do you run a team without profits? Seriously, how is profit not the biggest concern of every sports team?
It’s (profit) in the eventual sale of the team. Illich paid $85 million for the team, and it’s probably worth $1.5 billion today. That’s not a bad return
^ bump
MLBTR didn’t talk about the severity of Miggy’s injuries the past couple years. A 35 year old missing an entire season to injury and then coming back to hit .300 is quite a feat. He will increase power as he heals and builds back strength. He won’t hit 30 homers again, but he might be in the teens maybe as early as this year. And when he does, guys like Connor Byrne will be fantasizing about when Tulo and Ellsbury come back.
For 15 years he averaged 150 games played a year. He’s played more games this year than Stanton and Judge combined and they are at their peak.
Sad to say, but its got to do with hit ability to rotate and catch up to the fastball.. He’s still making a good amount of hard contact, but he’s also swinging and missing more. Because I was curious, I went to fangraphs and it seems to confirm many of my suspicions watching him. His torque/rotation isn’t quick enough to get around on balls that he used to launch 400+ feet easily. His groundball rate is up pretty significantly (hasn’t been this high in a full season since his rookie campaign).
There are a few signs that point to a resurgence as well. He continues to use all fields and hasn’t tried to overcompensate. He’s still getting about his average hard contact rate (soft contact is also up though). And that 4.8% HR/FB ratio with the hard contact numbers seem like they are due for some inflation.
But I do think the days of the great Miguel Cabrera have ended. And what days they were! An absolute monster for over a decade.
Thank you for raising the point that Connor and all the other commenters failed to mention. There is a very specific reason behind the lost power: Miggy tore his bicep last season, had surgery, and missed two-thirds of the year. It would be like taking a guy fresh from Tommy John and wondering why he isn’t himself that next season.
He and Buster Posey should start a club.
Ignoring the fact he missed most of last season to injury, struggled in April to regain his timing, and the persistently cold weather the Tigers have played in so far is either disingenuous or just sloppy. He hit with power during Spring Training, has maintained his barrel rate & exit velocity, and is hitting 342 /.435/.474/.908 over the last 14 days. He has a similar season in 2015 when he was coming back from a serious injury. He’s unlikely to hit 40+ HRs again, but if the power continues to return as the weather warms & he refines his timing he’ll be fine. Miggy’s challenge has been, & still is, staying healthy. If he can stay healthy, he’ll be fine. Look forward to seeing how this analysis looks in August.
Agreed. Dig further into Cabrera’s peripherals and there’s some serious signs of regression to the mean (meaning far better numbers to come). Hard hit rate is 45.2% (ranked 34th in MLB among qualified hitters) and line drive rate 24.7% (36th) are both very good. The line drive rate is fueling the high BABIP, not his speed. Assuming BABIP is all about speed is incorrect analysis and sloppy.
Cabrera seems to be having problems fine tuning his swing as despite having a very high hard hit rate, his fly balls just aren’t traveling far. Since Miggy’s walk rate is still very good and his K rate is still better than average, it seems like he’s seeing pitches pretty well.
My guess is Miggy will figure the swing out and start sending some balls out sooner than later.
Exactly. I bet he’d have more bombs if he played in the AL East.
Excellent point about BABIP. Miggy certainly isn’t getting on base with his speed. Warmer weather will fix the fly ball issue. It’s been stupidly cold in Detroit. As you point out, he’s bounced a few balls off the wall that would have been over with warmer weather.
Somewhere in Venezuela, eating banana peel soup and flamingo, while holding a Maduro rally, Singlio nods his heada knowingly…
That’s what a lot of these stat nerds don’t understand… they see a player decrease in power and they immediately assume it’s because he’s aging. Because that’s what happens when players are on the wrong side of 30. I recall these same know it alls saying Miggy is too fat to become a good hitter. He’s just going to be a .250 hitting slugger. That’s when he was in his prime.
Let the MLBTR brainiacs sit in the corner dreaming of Luke Voit and how great a player he is and pish posh a Hall of Famer coming back from major surgery. Could you imagine the inflated stats Miggy would have if he had hitters around him? He has almost as many RBI as Voit and Miggy has a couple .200 hitters in front of him and even more behind him. Voit in the Tiger lineup would be just another .200 hitter.
Can I offer you a band aid for that butthurt?
A band aid would be awesome… just don’t offer a massage…
The MLBPA thanks you for ignoring this post
Only 4.5 more years left of this overpay
I wonder if the Tigers & Yankees rumble(8-24-17) is where Miggy was injured. He seemed to have lost his power at that point. I hope the recent offense of Jacoby Jones is a turning point in Jacoby’s career.
That was a real brawl, not a meet and greet like most baseball fights.
Brawl? It was like an entire fight card! I was there.
No, he hurt his back in the WBC that pre season. That is why is 2017 stats were down. He should have been shut down early in the season but the Tigers hoped for 1 last push. I think they may have shut him down by the 24th. It was obvious they were going nowhere and had already traded Upton.
I have to say that it gets irritating to constantly hear how long term contracts are such a “detriment” to teams when a player gets older and his production becomes a shadow of his former self!!! Teams agree to these contracts!! No one forces them to sign anyone to long term deals!! Teams should front load the contracts when a player is most likely to actually earn the contract amount and then pay less at the end of the deal to more accurately reflect the player’s actual worth! The total contract amount would be the same and teams would have flexibility to use the additional money for other players or a player!!! If any blame should be assigned for these types of deals, it goes to the teams for wanting to even out the long term salary over the course of years rather than pay for actual worth at the beginning and the end of the contract!!! But of course teams want it both ways…they want to underpay when a player is at his most productive but at the same time not have to overpay when a player ages and becomes less productive!!! With the way the Pujols and Cabrera contracts were structured…it was inevitable that both would be massive overpays at the end of the deals!!!
Pujols and Miggy were the last of the signings from the steroid era when players were productive to 40. The Owners thought it was normal to play well late into a career. The Contracts stand out now because the Users are now all out of baseball, and theirs are the last big contracts from that period remaining. (I am not saying either were users).
The steroid era was over before Cabrera ever set foot in MLB.
^2003? Yeah, you couldn’t be more wrong.
Oh really? The steroid era in MLB is widely regarded to be 1993-2002. MLB implemented testing for the 2003 season, increased punishments for 2005 and again in 2006. The steroid era has been over for a VERY long time.
At least Miguel Cabrera is hitting. That’s more than can be said about most of the DET lineup. I think he’ll make a comeback next year unless he gets too fat..
Neat.
Well, at least he’s still hitting for average.
Cabby will likely rebound and have an ‘Indian Summer’ before he is done. Compare to similar hitters at this point in his career. He’s likely going to adjust to be a .300 doubles hitter and maybe he will up his walk rate, too, to compensate. He’s a smart hitter coming off a long, severe injury. He also has no V-Mart or Fielder hitting behind him, so he sees fewer hittable pitches. Bat him ahead of Castellanos and Stewart and he might get a few more good ones to put in play.
If he is not hitting above replacement after the All Star break or into next season, then worry. I’ve never seen a hitter like him wearing the Olde English ‘D’ in 46 years of going to Tiger ballgames, so I am not going to write him off just yet.