Right-handers Edwin Diaz and Blake Treinen were unquestionably the two best closers in baseball in 2018. And unless you want to make an argument for dominant Brewers lefty Josh Hader, Diaz and Treinen were likely the game’s top two relievers period. However, a couple months into the 2019 season, they’re no longer running roughshod over their competition.
In what proved to be his final season in Seattle, where he burst on the scene in 2016, Diaz tossed 73 1/3 innings and notched a 1.96 ERA/1.61 FIP with an eye-popping 57 saves in 61 attempts. Along the way, the flamethrower ranked fourth among relievers in K/9 (15.22) and 15th in BB/9 (2.09), leading to the league’s fourth-best K/BB ratio (7.29). He also trailed only Hader in swinging-strike percentage (18.9).
Despite Diaz’s incredible performance, the retooling Mariners deemed him expendable in the offseason. Seattle sent the 25-year-old to the Mets in an earth-shattering December trade that saved the M’s a ton of money and improved their farm system.
No doubt, the Mets expected Diaz to be the driving force behind a much-improved bullpen in 2019. To this point of the season, Diaz has perhaps been the Mets’ premier late-game option, but their bullpen has been a weak unit overall. For his part, the 25-year-old Diaz has been closer to the pitcher he was in 2017, when he was good but not otherworldly.
Diaz’s most recent outing, which came Wednesday against the Dodgers, surely counts among the worst of his career. He entered the game with an 8-5 lead in the bottom of the ninth inning and proceeded to allow six straight base runners amid a stunning collapse. Diaz yielded four earned runs on five hits (two home runs) and an intentional walk in what turned into a 9-8 loss for New York. The only batter he retired, Alex Verdugo, hit the game-winning sacrifice fly. The defeat left Diaz with a 3.22 ERA after he entered it with a 1.64 mark.
It’s easy to look at the shiny ERA Diaz had prior to Wednesday and attribute it to one bad performance. Similarly, it doesn’t take a lot of effort to say his .347 batting average on balls in play has been unlucky. However, the reality is that there are concerns across the board.
Diaz’s FIP (3.99) is up almost a run and a half since last year, while his weighted on-base average/expected wOBA against has risen from .214/.215 to .324/.289. It doesn’t help that Diaz’s strikeout rate has plummeted. After fanning 44.3 percent of batters in his Seattle swan song, Diaz has fallen to 36.1 in his introduction to New York. Beyond that, Diaz’s swinging-strike, line drive, hard/soft contact and chase rates have also gone in the wrong direction. He’s not keeping the ball on the ground as much either, which has led to newfound home run troubles. Diaz has already given up as many HRs as last season (five) through 51 fewer innings (22 1/3), and he’s now halfway to 2018 in blown saves (two).
Treinen, who made good on 38 of 43 attempts in 2018, has joined Diaz in failing on two tries so far this season. The 30-year-old may have been even better than Diaz in ’18, when he compiled a ridiculous 0.78 ERA/1.82 FIP across 80 1/3 innings. Treinen’s strikeout and walk rates (11.2 and 2.35 per nine) were excellent, albeit not as great as Diaz’s, as was his 51.9 percent groundball rate. But Treinen, who has significantly cut back his sinker and slider usage, is at 9.55, 3.95 and 40.3 in those categories this season. Meanwhile, Treinen’s ERA/FIP is up to 3.62/3.87 and his wOBA/xwOBA against has shot from .187/.214 to .313/.298.
What are some of the factors behind Treinen’s drop-off? Well, the .230 BABIP batters logged against him a year ago has moved to a more reasonable .306. At the same time, he’s not stranding as many base runners, having gone from an 85.9 percent left-on-base rate to 79.9. Furthermore, the right-hander is generating fewer swinging strikes, getting fewer out-of-zone swings and giving up more hard contact than he did last season. With that in mind, it’s no surprise that Treinen, like Diaz, has had more difficulty keeping the ball in the park. Just two balls left the yard then against Treinen, who has allowed three through 27 1/3 innings in 2019.
While Diaz and Treinen have recorded disappointing numbers this season, the letdown is largely as a result of the utter brilliance they displayed last year. Any team in the majors would still take either hurler, though their current clubs – both of which are playoff hopefuls – may need more from them if they’re going to earn postseason bids.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
One good season and we treat every relief pitcher like they should continue to keep it up their entire careers. Remember when Fernando Rodney, Jason Grilli, and Jim Johnson were some of the dominant bullpen arms?
Díaz has been good since his debut in 2016.
Correct, but he was absolutely dominant last year. There’s a difference between good and what Diaz did last year
Diaz had 1 great season and a couple really good seasons. He was brought up from AA to the majors and made the closer a few weeks later. He wasn’t great that year but you could see the possibilities with him. His upside was huge. He threw in the mid to upper 90s and had that killer slider. It wasn’t refined as much as it is now. I am not sure why the fall off maybe because he is so young the trade messed with his head. I was surprised we traded him I figured he was like Haniger untouchable. Not much of a fan of the Mets but I hope he turns it around he is a good kid.
again, i dont get the overreaction. he has been the saving grace of that bullpen, and after one bad outing people are worring about him having to “turn it around?” why is anyone losing sleep about this? he’ll be plenty good the rest of the year.
Remember when they were then all Tigers and sucked, along with Joe Nathan and Papa Grande Valverde and Soria every other reliever Dombrowski ever signed
Haha yes Joel Zumaya looked like he coulda been a dominant back of the bullpen guy and then had that terrible arm injury
Diaz is much younger and has already developed a dominant track record. all of those guys had career years several years into their careers. last year wasnt a breakout for him because of the higher baseline he already had.
But in that same notion….one bad outing and we call him a “fallen off” closer? He had a1.64 ERA before last night… He’ll be fine
Met’s don’t support Diaz’s , there defense is below average and they don’t shift for pull only hitters. Met’s pitcher pitch scared.
Which is why what Mariano did was so incredible.
Earth-shattering, lol…love this site but it needs an editor with some of the stuff you see on here.
Edwin Diaz had one bad outing.
But we are not just looking at that bad outing. Its just been his whole season. Sure, he has been good. Just not his dominant self
i would hardly say its news. Diaz is still very good and its much to early to overreact over something small. Jose Ramirez is a guy worth worrying about, not a closer who wasnt THE best after being really good least year.
Id worry about his power. He hasnt been too bad recently
With the mets Diaz will have more bad outings , some will not be his fault some will.
The thumbnail tho
Diaz changed leagues, whole new bunch of players to learn about. He’s going to have a lot of variance in his small sample to begin with.
Treinen was just impossibly good last year, but why did he ditch his sinker and slider? He’s still top 5 guy come September. Relievers get their stats destroyed for 2 months with one bad May outing.
Your logic is flawed. Pitchers have the advantage when hitters don’t know them.
It would be nice to know which relievers are doing better than them in the same article.
So Treinen cuts back on his usage of 2 pitches that lead him to a brilliant year last year? Yeah, great move. You know the old saying, “don’t fix what’s not broken”.
tf is this photo?????
I know, right?!
One amazing season is all it took to dupe our fraud GM into backing up the prospect truck…..never mind taking on the bad contract of Robbie ‘don’t ya know I suck without PEDs’ Cano.
Closers have are the most overrated position in baseball. As soon as they have a good year, teams should sell high
Dipoto strikes again!
….seriously tho Diaz will be ok I think. I still think Seattle has a good chance to get the better half of that trade. We will see how the prospects turn out in the show.
I mean, just look at Eckersley and Gagne’s numbers after they each won the CY young…it’s nearly impossible to repeat that kind of output, esp as a reliever.
A year ago they were writing about Ken Giles. Reversal of roles.
That’s the closer position in a nutshell; like playing the stock market.
Yep u never know
Except Mariano