When MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently laid out the opt-out decisions that will await several players at the end of the season, he was only willing to go so far as to give Elvis Andrus “an actual chance” at holding enough value to punt the three years (2020-22) and $43MM left on his deal with the Rangers. Now, with a month of the season in the books, Andrus has out-WARred all but five other position players leaguewide. Is it time we upgrade the likelihood that he opts out?
When the Rangers inked the contract at the outset of the 2013 season, it was done in no small part on the club’s faith in Andrus’s ability to continue growing at the plate after two near-average offensive season. That did not come to pass. Instead, he limped to a cumulative .264/.317/.340 slash over three rough campaigns.
At that point, after the ’15 season, the Andrus contract looked to be well under water. But things have ticked up since. As Steve noted in the above-linked post, Andrus went on a healthy .301/.352/.459 run from the start of the 2016 campaign through the point last April when he suffered a fractured elbow. The 2016-17 seasons were by far his most productive offensively.
Unfortunately, Andrus struggled upon his return to action in 2019, finishing the year with a .256/.308/.367 batting line that looks more like his forgettable 2013-15 effort than his intervening turnaround. With the way things shook out, he unsurprisingly elected not to take the first of his two consecutive opt-out opportunities last falls.
Moving back to the present, we’re looking at the best version of Andrus that we’ve yet seen. He’s on pace to top his twenty-homer outburst from ’17 (his only double-digit-dinger campaign to date) and carrying a hefty .231 isolated power mark. Andrus has also swiped six bags to go with his five long balls, further boosting his contribution to what has been one of the game’s most prolific offenses in the early going.
Add it all up, and Andrus owns an eye-popping .361/.425/.583 batting line (164 wRC+) through his first 120 plate appearances. Sure, it’s based in no small part on a .425 batting average on balls in play, but that’s also a reflection of the fact that he’s stinging the ball.
Statcast unsurprisingly anticipates some regression down from Andrus’s stunning .436 wOBA, but still credits him with a sturdy .385 xwOBA for his work thus far. Though he’s swinging and missing more than ever before, with more strikeouts also resulting, the tradeoff has been well worth it. Driven by a more aggressive approach, Andrus is working at heretofore unseen levels in terms of exit velocity (90.3 mph) and hard-hit rate (39.8%).
So, we’ve got some evidence of an underlying change that is helping to spur the improvements. And we already know Andrus has a surprising power reservoir. He isn’t the first contact-oriented hitter to figure out a way to tweak his output. In this case, it’ll be interesting to see how the numbers begin to settle out over a lengthier sample. Andrus is putting one of every four long balls out of the yard, which won’t continue. But perhaps he can maintain an higher-than-expected homer-per-flyball ratio if he keeps punishing line drives. He’s sitting at a career-best 31.3% rate and has yet to produce an infield fly. Andrus’s average launch angle is actually down quite a bit from recent seasons (to just 6.1 degrees), but when he has put a bit of loft on the ball it has tended to travel far. That approach likely won’t lead to a huge number of home runs, but might enable Andrus to carry good power (with a healthy number of doubles and triples) while also maintaining quite a high batting average and solid OBP.
The offensive arrow is generally pointed upward, if perhaps not at quite as steep a grade as his actual output would suggest. Andrus only carries average foot speed, but he’s still a clear plus on the basepaths with a strong history of adding value there. Of course, future expectations (with the bat and on foot) are also tempered by the inevitable march of time. There are also legitimate questions about where Andrus’s glovework stands and where it’s headed. He has held a rather steady profile in recent years, floating in range of average by measure of both UZR and DRS. The latter sees a drop-off thus far (-3 runs), though it’s too early to weigh that much at all.
Market context is always a critical factor as well. With multiple prominent players signing extensions, the top of the 2019-20 market already looks quite a bit weaker than anticipated — and that’s before potential injuries and/or performance issues. It’s not a bad time for a middle infielder to reach the open market, particularly now that Xander Bogaerts has elected to remain in Boston. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes ranks Didi Gregorius among the top ten potential earners at present, so there’s some possible competition, but the rest of the shortstop market fails to inspire and there are few certainties among second base candidates.
While there are some very good reasons to believe that Andrus could end up wanting to opt out, I still think it’s rather unlikely. While the Rangers haven’t secured all the value they hoped for in their deal with Andrus, they’ve done well enough. That’s due largely to the fact that he was so young when it was signed. And that attribute no longer holds. Andrus turns 31 in August of this year, meaning that he’d be shopping his age-32+ campaigns to prospective suitors.
The age element is of critical importance in a market setting in which teams are increasingly drawing back the length of the contracts they are willing to offer. It wasn’t long ago that a 34-year-old utilityman Ben Zobrist got a four-year commitment, but there’s good reason to think now that teams will be looking to cap off a deal at three or perhaps four seasons with a player such as Andrus. Plus, he’s not likely to command a super-premium salary. Despite heavy pursuit from multiple teams, Zobrist went for $14MM annually — just what Andrus is earning at present. Third baseman Justin Turner got a bit more ($16MM a year for four seasons) but was on a whole different level with the bat. Xander Bogaerts just took down $20MM AAV in an extension scenario on the heels of a monster 2018 season, but it would be surprising for the older and less offensively accomplished Andrus to reach that figure. Notably, that deal also only runs through his age-32 season.
If there’s a single, defining market data point for Andrus’s outlook, though, it’s the deal Zack Cozart signed with the Angels in advance of the 2018 season. The two players share quite a few characteristics. Cozart hit the market in advance of his age-32 season after posting an offensive outbreak. His showing was buttressed by some recent, quality offensive seasons but he had struggled at the plate previously in his career and had never previously approached his platform-season levels. Cozart had a significant advantage over Andrus in glovework, but was a bit older and had a more worrying health track record. He settled for a three-year, $38MM deal and had to move off of the shortstop position despite carrying some of the game’s very best leather.
Ultimately, even if Andrus sustains a compelling breakout all season long, it’s a bit difficult to see him commanding a deal that handily tops the three years and $43MM he already has in hand. Teams may be comforted by the fact that Andrus is a surehanded defender who could slide to second or third base at some point, but that sort of consideration won’t drive his market any more than it did Cozart’s. At most, opting out might mean chasing another year at a similar salary. That may not warrant the risk of entering free agency with qualifying offer-related draft compensation hanging over his head. Andrus could approach the Rangers in hopes of negotiating a new deal, dangling the threat of the opt-out, but the team doesn’t seem likely to bid against itself. If there’s an opening for Andrus to opt out, even after this phenomenal start, it’s a rather narrow one.
thatdudetg
Andrus will play his full career in Texas. No doubt. He loves Texas. And he will be the starting shortstop on opening day in new Globe Life Park.
Book it.
athleticsnchill
They’re committed to less than $100M for 2020, they’d be stupid to not sign him to a new contract.
thatdudetg
I never said he wouldn’t opt out. My remark was towards him not leaving Texas.
a1544
Opt out at your own risk
Joe Kerr
no chance
Goku the Knowledgable One
But he could easily get that value over 5+ if he keeps up this rate
solaris602
That’s a big IF
hiflew
Has there ever been a more awkward word than out-WARred?
One Bite Hotdog
AwkWARed
TaylorLH
I think the best win/win scenario here is Texas offer to approach him before too long and offer to make his 2023 club option guaranteed if he would nullify the opt out. That would make his contract a guaranteed 4/58.75M through his age 34 season. I think that would solidify him as a Ranger, and at 34 i dont think theres a huge chance he falls off into a completely unproductive player. He may not be a team leader in WAR but he could at a minimum play 2B/SS/3B as a regularly rotating UTIL IF if he faded.
He’s already made 93M in his career and that would put him over 150M in career earnings which could make it easier for him to decide to be a lifelong Ranger. While he isnt considered a superstar, he is 9th all time on the Rangers WAR list, and only 5WAR off being 4th behind Pudge, Palmerio, and Beltre.
The Ranger Fan
TaylorLH, That’s a great scenario, hopefully Daniels will do something soon.
jb19
I think you are right. Andrus probably doesn’t want to go anywhere and the rangers have a solid player. There’s an agreement to be had here, going to need to guarantee another year and maybe a slightly higher AAV
thatdudetg
I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if he DIDN’T opt out.
He wants to be in Texas. He knows he’s worth more than the value left on the contract. But he also wants to WIN.
Like Khris Davis, I believe he’ll take less than he’s worth to play where he wants, leaving the Rangers with more spending money to bring in assets to help the cause.
jbigz12
Per OPS+ andris has only 2 seasons where he was above league average with the bat. This would be the third. That would Also make it 3 out of the last 4 that he was above average with the stick. That just surprised me. I thought in his younger days he was more productive offensively. But anyway I think at his age 4 years is his ceiling. He should be able to top his current deal in AAV though if he opts out he will have a QO attached.
I agree with the suggestions above that said the two should come together on a 4/58. That makes the most sense for both sides. The Rangers don’t really have an answer coming through the system st SS and he’s a quality player. If one of their prospects does end up busting out they could always slide him over to 2B where I’m sure rangers fans would be happy to see less of Odor.
thecoffinnail
The Rangers do have a couple of prospects working their way through the system that can take his place. Anderson Tejeda is pretty much an Andrus clone. Both offensively and defensively. He should be ready next year sometime. Seise was their 1st round pick a couple of years ago and is moving along nicely. He should be the Rangers starting shortstop in 2022. He was injured last year with arm problems. When he gets back to full strength again he is going to be an exciting prospect to watch and don’t be surprised when other teams start to target him in trades.
The Ranger Fan
I think the bench depth is better now than we had in the two World Series runs because of Hunter Pence and Santana and Choo, But Choo has been playing the field lately.
The Ranger Fan
thatdudetg..I’m hoping he won’t opt like you as well,Elvis and his family love Texas, He also is the leader here as well, plus he’s gonna get a new Air-conditioned stadium next year, In Texas that’s huge.
The Ranger Fan
Who knows what’s spinning in the gerbil wheeled mind of John Daniels, I would offer him a 4 year at $50 million with no options, Elvis has turned the corner and got comfortable in Texas, plus The excitement of a new stadium who knows, John Daniels has promised pitching to go along with the stadium as well, The radio stations 105.3 hammered Texas this morning because of lack of pitching since our coach Mike Maddox left along with Nolan Ryan, and pitching has went down hill since, We can’t produce pitching, once they leave here they do better, But this stadium is a hitters park, hopefully a new stadium will change it some.I sat in my office one day and asked The Bulldog Orel Hershiser what our problem was, His response Pitching Pitching and Pitching. Who knows maybe a free agent or two next year.
Goku the Knowledgable One
Pitching, hitting, defense all need improved.
Also the bench depth and organizational depth could use improvement.
Other than that , they’re peachy.
User 1104686089
what are you talking about? the rangers are one of the better offenses in baseball right now. They just need pitching.
The Ranger Fan
I agree we have a Team that could contend if it was about hitting, we need pitching.
jbigz12
Well, that hitting isn’t necessarily long term. Choo is absolutely raking but he’s probably not part of the next good rangers team. Same with pence, Forsythe, and Cabrera. Mazara still looks to be the same below average player. And Guzman hasn’t really ran with the 1B job. Long term they’ll have to find answers at all of those slots. So, yeah it’s reasonable to think long term Texas is going to need hitters. It’s likely that most of those old guys hitting the baseball are going to be for sale in July if they continue hitting.
User 1104686089
Meh, Gallo has clearly taken a step forward and the minor leagues have hitters that need to be given a chance at the MLB level (Calhoun, Hienman, Thompson, Martinez, Trav). This is Texas, they always find a way to hit. I love Choo but there would still be offense without him.
Lance
gotta develop some pitching of your own and the Rangers have been horrible at that. Derek Holland was pretty good for a short while. Martin Perez showed some promise but then….nothing after TJ…… Dodgers and Cardinals have been very good at developing their own, however.
DarkSide830
the comparative lack of good options remaining in play would suggest a possibility. If he shows he is healthy, he could perhaps get 5-75 or more.
jorge78
I know Rougned needs to go.
He leaves a very bad odor…..
DarkSide830
haha brilliant
Melchez
Look at that… Tim said it couldn’t be done. A positive article about a Ranger player. I love to hear good things about teams other than the Yankees.
“As for writing positive things about the Rangers for the sake of being positive, that’s not how I roll. ” Tim Dierkes
It’s nice for a change. Say nice things… that’s how we should roll.
davidcoonce74
My god you are obsessed in such a petty, tiny way
jbigz12
He’s been taking shots ever since they said castellanos was a bad defensive OF.
Melchez
“bad”? I think the term was “unplayable”.
Melchez
I’m just pointing out how biased this sight has been.
The Ranger Fan
Amen to that Brother.
mazzone
Any time I read an article here and see typo’s or something doesn’t make much sense I think, “Jeff wrote this”.. Then I scroll up and check. Batting around 1.000 at this point.
DarkSide830
good thing you are using your time wisely
jd396
I’ll write a letter of reference for you if MLBTR hires a Director of Pedantry
Jeff Todd
I’m hurt.
What is the problem?
nymetsking
Gotta love the irony in a post talking about typos, when there’s a typo on the word “typos.”
johnrealtime
One of the biggest beneficiaries of the juiced ball that we’ve seen over the last 2 and a half years. Wasn’t that long ago that his contract was seen as a mistake and an albatross
johnrealtime
He’ll probably be able to do better than the less than 45million over 3 years that he is currently owed. He will opt out if he has a good year
bbatardo
Could he get more than 3/43 on the open market? With less players hitting free agency I believe he could.. even if his numbers tail off some from where they are now.
jd396
If they ever allow options trading on MLB contracts you could make some money riding the Andrus roller coaster.
its_happening
Hypothetically, if Andrus were to opt out….
A) would you want your team to sign him?
B) if you said yes to A, how long and how much?
Turning 32 in 2020, I am a no to A.
Melchez
I don’t see Andrus opting out unless he thinks he can land on an immediate contender and make near the same $. He might do it just to avoid the rebuild.
Lance
if I were the Rangers, I would not give him a new contract. If he wants to opt out and try the open market, fine. He’s had an amazing first month but he’s not a 360 hitter.. maybe talk to him in august or sept