As we approach the one-month mark of the young 2019 season, the MLB standings are starting to take shape, with fast starters trying to separate from the pack and rebuilding teams falling behind. With that said, the current slate of division leaders features some surprises. Notably, preseason favorites like the Yankees and Red Sox have encountered considerable adversity, while juggernauts like the Dodgers and Astros have thus far met expectations. Meanwhile, a number of teams that received less attention as potential contenders have found themselves climbing MLB’s rankings. Power surges in Seattle and Minnesota have carried the Mariners and Twins to the top of AL’s West and Central divisions, respectively. Elite run prevention in Pittsburgh has allowed the Pirates to flourish in the hyper-competitive NL Central. An injection of youthful energy has driven the Padres to within striking distance of the powerhouse Dodgers. Let’s examine these upstart clubs and look ahead to their outlook for the rest of the season.
The Mariners made headlines throughout the offseason, but often for the wrong reasons. General manager Jerry Dipoto spent the winter shipping off nearly every Major Leaguer with value, and now fields a team that only vaguely resembles the one that won 89 games in 2018. Edwin Diaz, Robinson Cano, Jean Segura, and James Paxton were all dealt to the East Coast. Last season’s iteration of the Mariners was notorious for its unsustainable first-half performance, repeatedly winning one-run games, often thanks to the heroics of Edwin Diaz. In 2019, the story is of a different flavor, though skeptics may once again challenge the sustainability of April’s returns. This year’s team is slugging home runs at a historic rate, including a streak of 20 games in which the team hit at least one round-tripper. The 2019 Mariners have belted 56 home runs, 12 more than the next closest team, the Dodgers. Tim Beckham and Domingo Santana are churning out extra-base hits, and Mitch Haniger is rising to stardom. Still, the Astros are looming, and a spot in the AL Wild Card will not come easy, with sleeping giants in the AL East working through early adversity–to say nothing of the undeniable Rays.
In a division that has all the makings of a bloodbath, many might have counted out the Pirates after an uninspired offseason: whereas rivals’ offseasons were highlighted by flashy additions like Paul Goldschmidt, Yasiel Puig, and Yasmani Grandal, the Pirates were quiet in the winter, with names like Lonnie Chisenhall and Erik Gonzalez headlining the team’s moves. However, it has quickly become clear that the 12-7 Pirates boast one of the Majors’ best pitching staffs. Behind Jameson Taillon, Trevor Williams has emerged as an automatic quality start every outing. Meanwhile, Joe Musgrove is showing off the dynamic stuff that made him the centerpiece in the Gerrit Cole trade, and Jordan Lyles has been a pleasant surprise to round out the rotation. Felipe Vazquez is dynamite in the late innings, and Richard Rodriguez showed promise last season as a high-leverage option, though the bullpen is somewhat shaky beyond that combination. On offense, things are less peachy, but Josh Bell is turning heads by coupling prodigious power with a keen batting eye. Again, the NL Central will provide no shortage of resistance, but a starting rotation of this caliber should keep the Pirates in more than their fair share of games.
With the last three seasons resembling a roller coaster ride, the Twins entered the offseason hoping to turn a corner. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine set out with essentially blank future payroll, capitalizing on that flexibility by bringing aboard veterans like Nelson Cruz, Marwin Gonzalez, and Jonathan Schoop to bolster a group of young position players that the Twins hope will be galvanized by rookie manager Rocco Baldelli. Jorge Polanco, fresh off a spring contract extension, has provided encouraging production from the shortstop position, and Eddie Rosario is blasting home runs at an impressive rate. Byron Buxton appears to have unlocked the potential that made him a top prospect, and Jose Berrios is entering bona fide ace territory. The pitching appears much improved from years’ past, with a bullpen headed by Taylor Rogers, who belongs in conversations with the league’s elite relief arms. This team may have the most attainable path to October baseball, playing in a weak division where their primary competition is the Indians, a team that has at times appeared vulnerable in 2019.
The Padres thrust themselves into the conversation for the postseason when general manager A.J. Preller and company added Manny Machado to the mix in a franchise-altering move. The team doubled down when the front office broke the mold by breaking camp with top prospects Fernando Tatis Jr. and Chris Paddack on the Opening Day roster. Those moves have paid massive dividends thus far, with Tatis forcing his way into the national spotlight, displaying a five-tool skillset. The club’s rotation of young outfielders is launching homers, and the anonymous bullpen has quietly been one of the best in baseball dating back to last season. Meanwhile, with a host of young starters comprising the rotation, the possibility of a Dallas Keuchel addition remains on the table–a move that would emphatically declare the Friars’ intention to make a postseason push. At the top of the NL West, the Dodgers represent a daunting giant to topple, and the rest of the National League features no shortage of contending teams, but the Padres’ spunk might lead to meaningful autumn baseball for the first time in nearly a decade.
While there are months of baseball left to play, trades to be made, injuries to work around, and breakouts to emerge, the games played in March and April are no less important than those in September. Early-season results can lay the groundwork for what’s to come. Which of the aforementioned blossoming clubs are best positioned to sustain their success and exceed expectations?
(Poll link for app users)
I voted for the M’s… not because I believe it but because I need it.
I voted for them too. Not a fan of any of the teams on the list but they have a great rotation going and a hell of a lineup. I mean its close between them and the Padres
That’s funny–and understandable. But if it helps, the defense should get a boost with Seager and Crawford in early June. Bishop should be right behind them. The bullpen is obviously the biggest concern, but they might get some help from an unknown Parker Markel who is missing bats every time he hits the mound. Look for him to replace Alaniz relatively soon. With a little luck, Tui and Strickland will return in early June as well.
They lack pitching depth, but it may not take much to tighten up.
I picked the M’s because the lineup has added guys (like EE, Vogey, and Narvaez) who don’t swing at bad pitches. They work the count put up great AB’s and force SP’s out before the 6th inn. Healy and Dee will still chase pitches out of the zone but there’s hope for Healy- he has improved already.
As you say Stevil their pen is a big concern- Gearrin and Rosscup are inconsistent, Alaniz has been rocked and Shawn Armstrong is not the RP we saw in Sept of 2018. In addition to Tui and Strickland there’s also an option of bringing up 1 or 2 of Sheffield, Swanson (after he replaces LeBlanc) and possibly Justin Dunn. If they’re careful w his inning count Joey Gerber might be ready in Sept also. It will be interesting to see how Dipoto handles this surprise- will he break up the band or add BP pieces? Nice problem to have.
There were questions about both Swanson and Dunn being able to stick in the rotation. I would guess that Swanson is more likely to be used out of the ‘pen of the two. There was hope that Mills would be able to debut at some point, but he’s having trouble adjusting to AA hitters.
I think there’s been a general belief that they could swap players like EE, Bruce, or Gordon for relief help. But I think they’re more likely to get relievers that aren’t quite ready. They might be able to get creative and move some of the non-essential outfielders, such as Ian Miller and (eventually) Eric Filia, for a little help, but I’m not anticipating any major moves for relievers.
The M’s have a better shot at making the playoffs now than ever… Even though they lost Diaz, Cano, Segura, and Paxton
“None of the above” should have been an option.
The Yankees are for real at .500
I was literally going to ask about this in the chat but missed it! Thank you MLBTR, great work!
bucco schedule favors them in April. then they face the dodgers. may is where we shall see how good they are.
Twins. Every other team on here will finish at or below .500
They need at least 1 more starter…maybe Keuchel? And, at some point Cron and Gonzalez are going to have to start hitting or 1st and 3rd needs to be upgraded.
They have Miguel Sano coming back ready to fill that role. They’re a solid team with a lot of pop. Particularly when Sano returns. Cruz has a lot more power than he’s shown and adding Sano will boost that. It should be the best lineup in the AL central. I think they’ve got a good shot at taking the crown in that division. The pen will have to lock games down if they’re to do it though.
M’s legit. They are MLB’s version of the Boston Celtics.
You can rebuild, and make playoffs, at the same time.
It would be something if they did. Not a Mariners’ fan, but I hope their fans get some closure when playoff drought ends.
Except the Celtics have actually made the playoffs sometime in the past 18 years.
they beat the angels when there are more in ir than 25.
Idc who is on the IL the mariners are significantly better than the angels who without mike trout would be no better than teams like the White Sox or tigers. That team sucks. They’ve literally pissed away every dollar they’ve spent in FA. And somehow have overspent on guys in a depressed FA market. How they ever came to the conclusion Matt Harvey was worth 11-14 million dollars I will never know. Or that playing Zack Cozart at 3B was ever going to be a success.
The M’s need a completely new bullpen but they’ve got some pieces in place now for an interesting team moving forward if Dipoto can make a couple additions in the next couple seasons. They should fade at some point this year. Hopefully before the deadline so they can sell off some ST assets and keep adding.
The Padres were predicted to win around 75 games this season; I think that’s probably still the total. But kudos to them for not manipulating service time and actually trying to win.
Not sure how dumping an All Star’s age 26 season down the drain is “trying to win.” But to each his or her own I guess.
Did I miss Tatis making the All Star Game at some point?
I think Machado is 26.
A very real chance he makes one this year. Not hard to see many all star games in his future.
I can’t figure this comment out. Machado? He was only going to be a free agent once. Even if the Padres weren’t projected to win this year they had to jump on a transformational player when they could. He’ll be with them for ten years, and I would guess that a fair amount of those ten years the Padres will be good. As for Tatis, there’s no reason to leave him in the minors except the service-time stuff. See how that’s working out for Kris Bryant and the Cubs; there’s no way in hell he’s re-signing with them because of what they did to him his rookie year. At least Tatis knows the organization values him and, more importantly, wants to put its best players on the field.
“As for Tatis, there’s no reason to leave him in the minors except the service-time stuff.”
That’s the only reason they need.
“See how that’s working out for Kris Bryant and the Cubs; there’s no way in hell he’s re-signing with them because of what they did to him his rookie year.”
I don’t believe that that’s true. He’ll stay if they pay him. And I’m not convinced he would have given them any kind of discount even if they had called him up to start 2015.
It’s a terrible system and I’m glad the Padres aren’t engaging in it.
You won’t be so glad in 6 years when Tatis is playing in Chicago.
By the way how is the service time manipulation thing working out for Ronald Acuña and the Braves?
Working out great for the Braves! I mean, they get a once-in-a-lifetime talent and get to underpay him. Not a good deal for Acuna but who knows where his head was at when he signed that deal. Maybe the Padres get lucky and get to do the same with Tatis, Jr.
But I like the idea of a team playing its best players. That seems like it should be the focus of a competitive sportsball team.
Padres would be playing him. He would be up by now. He only had to spend 15 days in the minors. Not half the season.
Anyway, were I Preller, I would have done what CWS did with Jimenez.
1-They will win less games over the next 7 seasons because of that move.
2-And still won’t make the playoffs this year.
At the end of the journey, in 6 years, no one will remember whether they won 77 or 82 this year. Same with teams holding onto their stars when they cannot compete. Most TO & BA fans can’t remember their win total last year. But they would remember if either/both got a couple of top-50 prospects when they had their top value & leverage.
As a RS, I’m glad we traded Miller for ERod, and disappointed that we didn’t trade Koji during the purge.
Even if Mariners start losing they will still be wining bc all they really want to do is move pieces at the deadline. To be honest it might be like Major League hoping they lose so they can tear down haha Ps we need a new baseball movie
I definitely believe the 6 game losing streak the pads just endured is for real
#maybenextyear
Don’t think they have the pitching to endure
If any of these teams can sustain (doubtful) then the Mariners probably have to be handicapped as having the best chance. They are not outplaying their ability to score and prevent runs (unlike the Padres, who should be expected to have a solidly losing record based on run differential).
Yeah, I don’t think Pythag records mean anything this early, because one or two blowouts really warp the run differentials. That stuff doesn’t really start normalizing until around 40 games into the season. I think the Padres are a 75-win team, as predicted, but they’ve already banked 11 of those wins, and Fernando Tatis has put up 1.5 WAR in 22 games. That’s exceptional, and Machado is right up there with him. The pitching has been so-so, besides Margevicious, Paddack and Yates, but I do think Lucchesi and Lauer are better than they’ve shown. I don’t think Strahm is a starter, but could be a Hader-like bullpen piece. It’s an exciting team to watch for the first time in a long time. The last time I saw the Padres play in person they were running guys like James Shields and Matt Kemp out there. This team is so much more fun to watch.
Right, but then the question is being asked in the third week of the season, so we have to go with the limited information we’ve got to answer it. No doubt the Padres are a team on the way up but they are still allowing quite a few more runs than they are scoring so far this year. Even without going to Pythagorean projections, we have to know that is usually going to produce a losing record, especially if it keeps up over time. I don’t see any of these teams as likely posting better than .500 records when all is said and done, but it’s difficult to ignore what Seattle is doing right now. They’ve outscored all of baseball, and not by just a little.
I wonder why the Rays weren’t on this poll. They are way better so far than they were projected to be.
Like I wrote, pythag projections normalize at around 40 games played.
Okay but I thought it was clear that I am not relying on Pythagorean projections, which are more than just run differential calculations.
Pythag projections are exactly run differential calculations.
No, not really, since it is a non-linear calculation and subtraction doesn’t come into the formula at all. I don’t know what exponent MLB uses for their pythagorean calculations, but baseball-reference describes their formula as using an exponent of 1.83, which they say is more accurate. Either way the basic formula is:
win ratio = (runs scored)^e / (runs scored)^e + (runs allowed)^e
Other than Tatis and Paddack, I don’t get the hype for some of the Padres young players.
You should watch Margevicius sometime. A 23-year old who jumped directly from A-ball to the majors, and has a 19/2 K/BB rate in 20 innings. He’s really good. And Urias hasn’t gotten to play much, because the Padres seem to love running what’s left of Ian Kinsler out there, but Urias is going to be a really good second baseman I think; he’s been an on-base machine in the minors.
I also wouldn’t give up yet on Mejia; catching prospects take forever to develop, and a guy who was a top-10 prospect in baseball twice and is still only 23 is still a prospect. Most catching prospects aren’t even in the majors at 23; Yadier Molina, for example, posted this line in his age-23 season: 216/274/321. And although he’s a glove-first catcher who is going to the Hall of Fame, it took him several years until his bat finally played in the majors. Catching is hard. The learning curve is steep, and there’s a reason why catchers stick around forever.
I can’t think of the last time a hit first catching prospects has succeeded in the majors. It seems like the ones who grade above average defensively work out the best.
Mike Piazza
Someone beat me to this, but Mike Piazza says hello.
Honestly, he’s fine defensively. A tic below average in terms of blocking, framing and receiving, but he has a cannon for an arm, (MLB Pipeline threw a 70 on it) so he’s able to limit the running game.
We’ve already seen him blast some lasers to 2B from his knees.
It’s his bat I actually worry about. He swings at EVERYTHING. He has zero approach. He’s not trying to get “that” pitch. He’s a disaster up there.
Problem is Mejia needs everyday PA’s to get into a groove and he’s not getting them and he only has one option year left. I see one of him or Hedges getting traded at some point.
you forgot the tigers and red sox as surprises…
You forgot to include the Scranton Railriders. They’re second in the AL East, and on a three game winning streak.
Underrated comment
I think the Twins for a couple reasons. We knew they were a potential challenger to the Indians before the season. The Indians are vulnerable and have shown they have flaws. The Twins are in a division with three very bad teams. Nothing breaks a slump faster than playing teams that are “taking”.
pirates are not really a surprise.
Cool, the Rays aren’t on the list lol….. okayyyy?
They were a surprise last year this year they were expected to be good just over shadowed by the Yankees and Red Sox even though they are off to rough starts
If by “for real” you mean most likely to make the playoffs, it’s the Twins or Pirates.
The Twins have only one challenger in front of them. If the Indians stumble, the Twins have a clear path.
The Pirates play in a division where all 5 teams have flaws and 4 of them still have a chance to win it.
The starters have been amazing. Unsustainably amazing. If they are just good, can this team still win? The answer is maybe. Because so far, the bullpen (which in theory is excellent) has been mediocre and should get better. The offense has been without 2 of their top 3 OF’ers all season and is now playing with their #5, 6 and 7 OF’ers starting. The starting 3B missed two years of MLB and is only now getting going. Injuries to their backup C have forced Cervelli to play too much, hurting his production. So, the bullpen and offense can theoretically help balance any regression to the starting staff.
FTR, I would like to see the M’s accidentally end their playoff drought during an intended rebuild, though.
Cervelli rarely has been this bad offensively. Can’t wait for Diaz to hit his stride.
Twins are the only team likely to continue their current level of success, but i see the Mariners continuing to contend as well, maybe the Padres to some extent as well.
Don’t quite understand the lack of love for the Pirates. The Twins have a very thin staff and their best chance lies in the fact that they play in a poor division. The Indians are better..period. The Pirates play in a much better division and are playing with a AAA squad right now. The pitching is overall better than all the competitors.
The lack of love for the Pirates is because of that division they play in. They are off to a great start, but eventually they have to start playing games within the division against Chicago, Milwaukee, and St Louis. Cubs are scuffling a bit but most believe they will turn it around, Milwaukee and StL are both playing well while having 2 head to head series, a Cubs series down, and dealing with the Dodgers (4 games for Stl and 6 for Milwaukee) While Pit has had Detriot, SF, a scuffilng Wash squad, and 2 series against the Reds. The best 2 teams Pit has played has been Chicago and StL and they lost both those series.
This. It is always great psychologically to get off to a good start, but honest Pirate fans must know that part of their early success has to be due to the competition. The Cards and Brewers have both had rough opening schedules, as noted. And it isn’t going to get much easier soon with the Brewers coming to St. Louis starting today. Then they don’t see each other again until August. Scheduling is an algorithmic nightmare, but still it has room for improvement. The Buccos still have much to prove.
Thin staff? Pineda thanks you.
The Rangers starters are gonna get better and better this year, They are building arm strength after being off for One and two years ,we have the offense, Texas always will have the mashers and bombers, but our pitching has surprisingly been decent so far, yes we could use a couple more bullpen quality relievers along the way, I think we’re gonna surprise a few that picked us dead last. Let’s see it play out.
The Pirates have to show that they have improved significantly over a longer period.They are 1 and 4 against the Cubs and Cardinals.
I do not understand why Stallings has not played more if overwork is the cause of Cervelli’s poor showing.Why keep him on the roster then?
The bullpen has underperformed but it should be one of the best in baseball.Crick was not mentioned but he would have helped in a couple of games that they lost.
The starting pitching had been underrated but they have shown how very fine they very well may be.
They are banking on improved hitting from some veterans and the return of their two best hitters.
The replacements in the outfield have actually been some of their best hitters.
Hopefully Tucker is the real deal because they had a weakness at shortstop which was not improved over the winter.
I am sticking to my prediction of 84 wins and possible contention for the division championship.
Twins, if for no other reason than they can win 83-85 games and win their division.
For me, none of these teams are surprise teams However, sustaining their momentum is the real question. The Twins have the easiest schedule and in truth, their pitching is much better than I thought it would be preseason. Seattle’s GM will be changing the team around mid season.
So I’m watching MLB central just now,The highlights of the Rangers and Astros are playing, so we score 22 runs off this great Astro pitching and win 2 of 3 and all the while the MLB announcer is giving cudos and praise to the Astros,even up to the last out of Chirinos striking out to end the game, gimme a break, no better yet give the Rangers a break,we’re talking bout a Tommy John rotation this year that is getting better by the game.
Yep. When the Rangers are hoisting the Silver Boot, MLB will still be crowing about the pretty vulnerable Astros this season still. I mean they have to be vulnerable losing to a patchwork club…if the Rangers are no good, I mean.
Personally I’m jealous of Houston for being so good, but I’m gonna root against them all year anyway,and hope that my Rangers ruin it for them, Even when we went to the show in 2010 and 2011 we got no respect, The radio show 105.3 brought up a good point today,Why are we not ranked, not by the 3 groups that do the rankings, according to our record we should be 11 or 12 can somebody please give me a tissue and some cheese for all this whine.
Ranger Fan- I know exactly what you mean, that type of thing happens after the Mariners games. Yesterday the M’s had the best win pct. in MLB and the 2nd best run differential and what was our spot in the MLB power rankings? Number 12!
I am a little biased, but I do think the Padres will compete this year. 12-11 and their offense hasn’t quite clicked yet. They won’t overtake the Dodgers or anything, but a winning record and chance at wild card I can see.
I had Twins winning division before the season started. Lineup is really good and deep when it performs. They really did their homework on value with guys like Nelly, and Marwin. Bullpen needs to be addressed but the makings of a sleeper division winner is there. I wonder if they would be rumored to be in either the Keuchel market or go out obtain another quality arm such as a Bum.
Are the Twins really a “surprise”? I didn’t read the post, just voted, but a lot of sources projected them around 84 wins, which is by no means bad.
I voted for them mostly because I’m a Twins fan, but they will need to address the bullpen, big time, if they are going to sustain their winning.
“Surprise” is kind of a reach on all these teams except the Mariners and maybe the Pirates to some degree.The padres are a game over .500. They’ve played 7/23 games against the giants. That’s helped that. The pirates have beat up on the weaker teams so far. The two series they’ve lost are to the best teams they’ve played the cards and nats. They’ve handled the reds,tigers and giants which has helped.
The mariners are the only team out of the bunch that it’s completely surprising to see what they’re doing right now given the injuries and the complete reconstruction of their roster. But it’s a good piece. It’s a little early but that’s by design.
I think the rangers should’ve gotten some consideration for this piece. To me, them being 12-8 is more surprising than the twins or the padres being a game above .500 right now.
Agreed, huge miss in the poll.
Amen to that.
How is losing 2 of 3 to the Rangers this past weekend meeting expectations on the Astros?
Exactly my point
Really should of been an option for none of the above. Padres are young so it’s still too early tell if they can keep up the pace but I would expect them to be inconsistent as the players grow. It’s hard to pick the Pirates to win in that division with 3 teams that are better on paper than them. The Mariners feel like the Indians team in Major League. Thrown together and noone expects anything from them but could surprise. And if I have to pick one it’s the twins. They had good signings over the winter and were already a decent team before that. Add the week division and the Indians questions about if and how they will address them and it could happen but until they face teams not in the Central we won’t know.
Twins. Easiest division.
Twins aren’t really that big of a surprise. They should be better than last year and seem to have a good group of veterans to go with the young guys who have looked a little more polished so far this year. Now, if Sano could be consistent and show improvement when he comes back the offense could be a monster. To me, pitching is the wild card with this club.
Last month EVERYONE was criticizing the Pirates management for not upgrading the roster. They predicted the Bucs would finish dead last and behind the REDs in the NL Central. Yes there are still holes but they are first in the NL Central at the moment and are only going to get stronger with Gregory Polanco coming off the DL and Mitch Keller getting promoted this summer!
Btw, how are the REDs doing right now?
Not mentioned: Tampa Rays. No wants to admit that their starting pitching concept is better than any other teams’ 4th and 5th starters or that their players come to battle because they are being given a chance. More talent on the way. I’m impressed with managements conviction and confidence.