The pitching arms race is in a fascinating place. There’s velocity everywhere you look. Pitch development and analysis has grown by leaps and bounds. Physical tools interact with tunneling and sequencing/location strategies. It’s an ever-changing landscape, leaving ample room for players to emerge — particularly in the relief realm, where a hurler may only be a tweak or two away from emerging as a dominant force. (The opposite also holds true.)
Let’s take a look around the league at some relief pitchers who have debuted or exhibited intriguing new performance levels in 2019 and consider which seem most likely to continue:
Nick Anderson, Marlins: When you’re a relief pitcher with a rebuilding club who turns 29 in the summer of your debut season, expectations just aren’t going to be all that high. A seemingly minor pre-Rule 5 trade acquisition, Anderson has taken off in Miami with 11 innings of 2.45 ERA pitching and a whopping 22 strikeouts on an 18.4% swinging-strike rate. He has only handed out two free passes, both of them intentional walks. The Twins would surely like a re-do on the decision to part with Anderson. (Their own late-blooming relief success story, Ryne Harper, doesn’t have nearly the shiny peripherals to support his useful showing thus far.)
Robert Stephenson, Reds: It was do-or-die time for the 26-year-old former top prospect, who’s out of options. He’s doing quite nicely thus far, with a 2.08 ERA and 12.5 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9 over 13 innings of action. While the talent has never been in question, the results have never really been there for Stephenson. But he’s thriving in a pen role and showing that the stuff plays legitimately against MLB hitters, with a 19.4% swinging-strike rate. He’s leaning heavily on his slider (59.3%), mixing that primarily with a 94.9 mph fastball. It seems the tools are there for continued success.
Sam Gaviglio, Blue Jays: Sometimes, moving from the rotation to the pen results in a boost, and that seems to be the case here. All the arrows are pointing up for the righty as he closes in on his 29th birthday: K%-BB% (25.9%); swinging-strike rate (16.9%); groundball rate (54.3%). He still doesn’t throw hard, but he’s closer to 90 mph on average than ever before with his sinker. And in a relief capacity, Gaviglio has been able to go much more frequently to his slider (44.6%). With a 1.20 ERA in 15 innings, the results have followed.
Brandon Brennan, Mariners: 9.6 K/9 vs. 2.4 BB/9 and a 58.3% grounder rate? That’ll work. It’s a 15-inning sample, but an impressive one for a player who was plucked in the Rule 5 draft after signing a minor-league deal with another club. He’s carrying a hefty 16.3% swinging-strike rate while punishing opposing hitters with equal doses of a mid-nineties heater and evidently improved change. Seattle may well have a keeper in the 27-year-old righty.
Trevor Gott, Giants: After failing to turn the corner for several seasons with the Nats, Gott has finally seemed to get it in San Francisco. Through 13 innings he owns a 2.08 ERA with 9.7 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9. Gone are the grounders that were once his greatest attribute; also missing so far are the homers that plagued him. Gott is now working primarily off of a four-seamer instead of a two-seamer, allowing him to nearly triple his swinging-strike rate from last year (5.6% to 14.2%).
Luke Jackson, Braves: Though he threw 91 1/3 innings with Atlanta over the prior two seasons, Jackson was bounced from the 40-man roster on several occasions and was never secure in a role. He may be on to something in 2019, though. He’s still handing out too many walks, but Jackson has also bumped his swing-and-miss capabilities (11.9 K/9, 15.0% SwStr%) by boosting his slider usage (52.2%) and drawing more chases out of the zone (41.1%). Most fascinating of all? Through 11 1/3 innings, Jackson is a groundball monster, with 21 of the 28 balls put in play against him classed as grounders. Average opponent launch angle? A smooth -5.6 degrees.
Connor Sadzeck, Mariners: While he got results in a brief stint last year with the Rangers, there were glaring walk issues. Sadzeck has righted the ship so far with his new organization, allowing one earned in eight frames with nine strikeouts and three walks. He’s going to his slider more than half the time and generating a solid 13.6% swinging-strike rate thus far. Most importantly, getting strikes on 60.0% of his first pitches has set Sadzeck up to continue limiting the free passes.
Nick Wittgren, Indians: In the bullpen game, you win some, you lose some. Miami parted with Wittgren after the 27-year-old turned in a solid but hardly overwhelming 2018 season. He seems to have found another gear in Cleveland, though it remains to be seen whether it’s sustainable. Wittgren has eleven strikeouts without a walk through eight innings and is carrying a 58.8% groundball rate — markers of dominance he has never previously hinted at. He’s throwing much the same pitches at much the same speeds and generating only an 8.4% swinging-strike rate, so it seems there may be some short-sample hijinks at play.
Ian Kennedy, Royals: The 34-year-old is a veritable rookie as a reliever, having spent the virtual entirety of his pro career to this point in a rotation. He’s finding new life as a pen piece, working to a 1.42 ERA with 12.1 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 along with a 48.5% groundball rate over 12 2/3 frames. He hasn’t found new heights in the swing-and-miss department (10.3% is at, but not over, his career ceiling as a starter) but is working with newfound velocity (94.2 mph average four-seamer) and seems to have benefited from shelving his change in favor of his curve.
Jake Newberry, Royals: A much younger K.C. entrant takes the final spot (which could also have gone to newcomer Richard Lovelady or a few other contenders). Another hurler who is finding success with heavy slider usage, Newberry has boosted his swinging-strike rate from under ten percent last year to 15.8% in 2019. He’s rarely in the zone (31.5%) but has a 10:1 K/BB ratio over eight innings since he is getting first strikes three out of five times and having no problem convincing opposing batters to chase out of the zone (36.8%). The 24-year-old is inducing loads of fly balls, which could spell trouble if they begin to leave the yard. It’s a delicate balancing act that’ll be tough to sustain.
Honorable mention (or: “what about [player x]?!”):
Guys like Matt Barnes, Reyes Moronta, and Lou Trivino have had too much success in the past to be considered, even if they are making further strides. Marcus Walden and Ty Buttrey were closer cases given their thinner track records, but largely showed their current form last season. Nick Burdi might have been considered despite his ugly ERA but for his unfortunate recent injury. Wander Suero, Giovanny Gallegos, Adam Morgan, Daniel Stumpf, Luis Cessa, Buck Farmer, and Kyle Ryan are among the pitchers who have shown quality swinging-strike rates or other intriguing developments. But they all had less innings and/or greater warts than the players listed above. I’d almost certainly have given a spot to John Means, but he’s not being utilized as a traditional short reliever.
tealmarlin
Yoan Lopez?? dude has been on fire
Jeff Todd
I was looking beyond ERA. He’s showing about what he did in his brief time last year and benefiting from a good stretch of BABIP/LOB fortune. Not to say there’s nothing to like, just not what I was looking for here.
Xavier Blaine
Embarrassing how the Nats let go of Gott. Electric stuff, goes multiple innings, easily would have been their best reliever not named Doolittle.
Todd_Joseph
As a giants fan agree, his stuff is electric. They struck gold on him.
jdgoat
Ya but they needed a bullpen spot for Rosenthal.
Jeff Todd
He started changing his repertoire last year but he was still leaning on the sinker and the results were awful. They have gone all-in with the four-seamer.
DarkSide830
it perplexes me why he never got it together with the Nats.
fs54
List of ex-Nats relievers finding success elsewhere is getting longer by every trade or transaction they make. I bet this is why they are hesitant to let Rosenthal walk.
Philliesfan4life
The angels got him in the Houston Street trade if I remember, then they traded him to the Nats for Escobar.
Xavier Blaine
Would Dylan Floro have been considered as already broken out? Did well last year but only appeared in 29 games. Don’t think anyone really took it that seriously but now he’s absolutely locked in. Could replace Jansen.
kenleyfornia2
Jansen wont opt out if thats what you mean by replace
Xavier Blaine
Replace as in closer role. Jansen makes my heart beat 100x faster every time it’s the 9th inning. I get that it’s early in the season and he tends to get better as the season goes on but if he continues to stay around 89-91 mph giving up home runs every 2-3 outings his role should be replaced.
Jeff Todd
Yeah nothing really new there … some of his peripherals are down, actually, though the whole lack of an earned run thing is obviously nice.
weekapaug09 2
“Guys like Matt Barnes, Reyes Moronta, and Lou Trivino have had too much success in the past to be considered, even if they are making further strides.”
I must be slipping because I don’t think I’ve ever heard the name Reyes Moronta.
athleticsnchill
Fat. Throws triple digits and a “wipe out” slider 10 mph slower than his fastball. Hard to suck if you can just command one of those two pitches.
weekapaug09 2
Sounds pretty fantastic. Living on the East Coast and having the Giants be terrible, I totally whiffed on hearing his name all last season.
Jean Matrac
Yes, you must be slipping. It’s not like Moronta came out of nowhere. He was in 69 games last season, and was lights out. He was really good in a 2017 late season call-up. After 86 games in the majors, and a career 159 ERA+, he should be better known than he is.
jdgoat
A lot of who are these people lol.
Nice to see Stephenson finally being able to put some success together as well.
cheese
Is John Brebbia invisible to both baseball and his own franchise? Someone give this man some love
StlSwifty
Brebbia and Gant both!
Jeff Todd
Gant looks like a prime regression candidate. Velo is up but otherwise seems there’s some batted-ball and sequencing luck there to explain the results.
Juicemane 2019
Who is John Gant?
Jeff Todd
Brebbia has been a quality reliever for two prior years, so didn’t make sense to highlight here. He is getting more swings and misses but it’s much the same pitch mix but with a velo drop. Just not a guy that fell under what I was looking at.
CardsNation5
Why isn’t John Brebbia and John Gant on this list?
Jeff Todd
Sort of explained that above, but … basically, they have low ERAs but otherwise look more or less like the same guys they have been in recent years. I wasn’t just listing pitchers with low ERAs.
nastynateSTL
Ha! yeah they are proven relievers that were guaranteed a spot in bullpen in spring training. Coooome on man
Jeff Todd
Which … is why they are not the kind of guys I was looking to highlight in this post. I didn’t include Edwin Diaz either. He is very good. I am not just listing good relievers who are getting good results right now.
What is even happening?
cpritner
Cub fan bias
Jeff Todd
I’m a Cubs fan?
nastynateSTL
Great question
saavedra
Kirby Yates?
Jeff Todd
Very good reliever who is still very good.
nastynateSTL
So nothing from Cardinals and one of best bullpens in league so far
Jeff Todd
Again, there’s a difference between results and underlying stuff/peripherals. They are getting some really good and a few meh results from their relievers … but nobody really looks like a totally different pitcher than they have been in recent seasons. So I don’t see a breakout pitcher in the group.
Feel free to state what you think I am missing in that assessment.
CardsNation5
Come on Jeff, Brebbia is way better than he’s ever been. He’s not gonna ride the 255 train from St. Louis to Memphis all year again like in the past.
Jeff Todd
2018
10.7 K/9 / 2.8 BB/9 / 0.89 HR/9 / 32.7% GB / 12.4% SwStr
.297 BABIP-against / 78.9% strand rate
3.02 FIP / 3.79 xFIP / 3.17 SIERA
2019
10.8 K/9 / 3.0 BB/9 / 0.60 HR/9 / 28.1% GB / 16.8% SwStr
.129 BABIP-against / 100% strand rate
2.78 FIP / 4.05 xFIP / 3.19 SIERA
Honestly, I was looking at Brebbia and feeling impressed. Then I looked more closely at what he had done before and felt it was too similar to meet what I was looking for in this post. I realize the fanbase has had a different experience with him, watching him day in and out, but the numbers were pretty good last year and not really different in kind from what he’s showing now (assuming, at least, that there’s some short sample variance in the swinging strike #s).
Jean Matrac
Clearly there are some readers not understanding the concept of this post.
lucienbel
I thought the title made it pretty clear personally. It’s difficult to be a “break out” player when you’ve done it in the past. I guess other posters don’t agree.
cheese
I think it’s just confusing cause John brebbia has spent so much time in the minors the last two years, which i thought would put him in this category.
MasterShake
People just get all upset because they didn’t see a player from their favorite team listed and act like it affects their whole lives! I don’t get it. It’s an opinion piece…
Zach725
I wasn’t a big fan of Luke Jackson making the team, but he has proven me wrong. Hopefully he keeps this up, because he is the braves best reliever right now.
braveshomer
lol we all say a different name each week…Jackson is best reliever right now, Parsons is best right now, Winkler is best right now. Man it’s just been a turnstile of who’s truly effective vs. who walks everything under the sun.
DarkSide830
nice to see Gott back on track, and interesting to see what Kennedy has done in the pen. Im surpised Gant did not get into the footnote though, even withought impressive so numbers and such.
friarsws2k20
Trey wingenter of the Padres?
96-98 mph fastball and some good offspeed?
Only given up 1 ER in 13/14 appearances
Jeff Todd
Let’s see if he can get the walk rate down.
GareBear
Jeff, just wanted to say I really enjoyed this piece. Plenty of people don’t seem to understand the intent but it really was interesting and gives me some names to watch going forward
packman
I’m curious what you think of JB Wendelken.
Jeff Todd
Looked at him but he’s showing the same underlying skills he did last year so I decided not to break him out. Less walks but I think in this case it’s just a sample blip … should be a good piece for them, don’t get me wrong, just not quite in the category I was looking for.
BartoloHRball
Good write=up. There are a lot of good options out there, but I think you got most of them (at this point in the season). Hopefully you will do this again in another month or two.