SATURDAY: Extension talks are off for the time being, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, who tweets that the Twins and Gibson didn’t come close to a deal during their discussions.
FRIDAY: The Twins and right-hander Kyle Gibson are discussing an extension that would keep him in Minnesota beyond the current season, Gibson himself revealed to Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune. Gibson is set to become a free agent after the 2019 campaign, but Miller notes that agent Randy Rowley has been in Ft. Myers for the past few days and met with the Twins to discuss a deal. Gibson is already earning $8.125MM this season after avoiding arbitration earlier in the winter.
“It’s really just trying to figure out what makes sense for the Twins and if it is something they want to do as well,” Gibson told Miller, adding that Minneapolis is “definitely” somewhere he wants to be beyond the 2019 season.
A first-round pick by the Twins back in 2009, Gibson’s path to the Majors was slowed by Tommy John surgery. He’s been a mainstay in Minnesota’s rotation since 2014, however, and while he struggled in both 2016-17, Gibson enjoyed easily the best season of his career in 2018. Last year, the Mizzou product totaled a career-high 196 2/3 innings while registering a 3.62 ERA with 8.2 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 1.05 HR/9 and a 49.8 percent ground-ball rate. Gibson upped the use of his slider a bit while throwing his changeup less often and saw his swinging-strike rate increase from its career mark of 9.8 percent to 11.5 percent.
If the two sides can ultimately strike a deal, Gibson would become the third starting pitcher to forgo free agency in favor of a pre-season extension, joining Reds right-hander Sonny Gray (three years, $30.5MM) and Cardinals right-hander Miles Mikolas (four years, $68MM). Gibson’s situation isn’t a direct parallel with either of those righties, however. He’s two years older than Gray but also coming off a demonstrably better season, whereas Mikolas is a year younger and coming off a surprisingly dominant season in his return to the big leagues after a three-year run in Japan.
The Twins likely have some added incentive to try to broker an agreement, as in addition to Gibson, they’ll see right-handers Michael Pineda and Jake Odorizzi become free agents following the 2019 season. Jose Berrios, who rejected an extension overture earlier this spring, is the only established starter that Minnesota controls beyond the 2019 season. Fifth starter Martin Perez has a club option on the one-year contract he signed this winter, though he’ll need to reestablish himself as a viable big league arm in order for that to become a consideration.
I would like to see Kyle sign an extension with the Twins, something like 3 years.
So would the twins.
Watched him since he was the Friday Night starter at Mizzou. “Fell” to the Twins at 22nd after injury to non throwing arm, IIRC.
Great guy, rooting for the young man.
Stress fracture in his throwing arm.
Losing Pineda and Odorizzi after this season is why Twins must make a run for the crown now. 2020 is too far into CWS’ widening window of contention.
Extending Gibson to a team-friendly contract at this point will merely make him a more valuable trade chip next year, just as CWS begin ruling the ALC roost.
Twins are definitely not in win-now mode though. Way too many unknowns and still a season away from Lewis and Kirriloff.
White Sox ruling the ALC roost… that was funny.
You know the White Sox are so close to contention. You could tell by all the free agents flocking to take deals from them.
What are you taking about. All their prospects are on the shelf for a considerable amount of time.
What would be a fair offer for Gibson? $36M/3 with incentives that push the overall total to $45M?
38 for 3, mutual 44 for 4?
4/35
Gibson is a #4 quality guy. Nothing special coming off a career year. I’d rather not have the Twins make another Phil Hughes deal. #4 and #5 type guys are pretty easy to come by on short contracts or out of the farm system.
He had pretty much the same breakout year in 2015 too. Strikeout rate is much better this time though, so maybe. 3/35 or 4/45. Or let him test free agency. No one’s spending.
While Gibson has made you want to pull your hair out at times early on, he’s turned into a very solid starter. The fact that this was even reported during the negotiations is a good sign that something will get done.
Might be wise for mid tier players to extend with their team rather than test free agency given the current state of affairs.
Gibson is on the wrong side of 30 and has a career era over 4.40… Has a Whip over 1.4 Why give him a 3 year deal? Aren’t there AAA pitchers that could give you that?
No way man, I’d rather put 3/45 towards signing either Teheran, Odorizzi, or Roark.
3/45 wont get either Teheran or Roark and would a massive overpay for Odorizzi. Over the last season and a half, Gibson has become a reliable #3-type starter who can pitch like a #2 at times. 3/$36-39MM with realistic incentives/escalators that could bring it up to 3/$45-48MM would be a very fair deal for both sides.
No he hasn’t. He’s the same pitcher he always was. In 2017, his final 10 games saw him pitching to terrible hitting teams 8/10 times. Last year, he was himself with some added luck.
Good start, bad start, good start, bad start. That’s Kyle Gibson, and that’s a back end of the rotation arm. A #2 starter? That’s Berrios at his absolute peak. When Gibson can string together 5+ quality starts in a row, then you can start talking about #2’s. Gibson can’t put together more than 3 consecutive quality starts and never has in his career. Guys don’t develop into something else after their late 20s. It doesn’t happen.
“Guys don’t develop into something else after their late 20s. It doesn’t happen.” Just lol.
Just LOL OMG. ZOMG.
The responses from people who are, but don’t like being, dead wrong with virtually nothing to support their position other than their personal feelings.
Randy Johnson is touted as the quintessential late bloomer. He was an All Star at age 26 and a Cy Young candidate at 29. Cliff Lee was 29 when he won his first Cy Young. Al Leiter figured it out at 29 as well, but he was largely a reliever and had very little opportunity at the big league level.
Kyle Gibson is a back end arm no matter how much Twins fans want to dream he’s the stud top prospect, front line starter they thought he was going to be back in 2010. “Kyle Gibson has finally turned a corner!” is the Twins fan battle cry the same way “This is our year!” belongs to Vikings fans.
First off, my comment was about how bad the quote was. Second, Gibson isn’t a 4 or a 5. Personally, I don’t know what to consider him. He had a very good year last year, both from him adjusting and a little luck. So I’m gonna go with a very quality 3. Lastly, you seem to have an issue with Minnesota Sports and that’s okay it sports and people take it personal sometimes. But you shouldn’t knock someone’s accomplishments because they play for the team you dislike.
[martras] Dead on. I enjoyed your recap of Gibson & Twins/Vikings fan. 1000% accurate.
twins1, You walked in, insulted me, contradicted my assertions with nothing but your own personal opinion and then play the “you’re a meanie” card when I provide you with facts?
You came in with the insult. Now back it up with something. There’s certainly some evidence out there Kyle Gibson could barely squeak into the #3 catgory, right?
#1 = 0-20%
#2 = 21-40%
#3 = 41-60%
#4 = 61-80%
#5 = 81-100%
Kyle Gibson = 69-70% in ERA (4.50) and FIP (4.52) out of 120 qualified starters over that period. That’s with his career year from last year included. Seems to put him right into that mid #4 category of performance. Maybe you have something to move the needle towards your position on him?
Also, if you could, provide some sort of evidence that starters somehow figure it out and turn into different pitchers in their 30s. I’d personally love to see the evidence (I’m serious. It would be interesting to investigate). Better come up with something better than Jamie Moyer, though.
This is a question of whether or not he has developed. Nobody can question the fact that he did not pitch well from when he came up until. Minus 2015, he had not performed that well until the second half of 2017. But since the latter half of 2017 he has thrown well above average. I don’t know where to find the second half stats but here is where he ranks last year for starters above 50 innings according to FanGraphs
ERA: 26.8% FIP: 43.5% War: 17.8%. So according to the percentages: last years ERA puts him as at least a solid #2, FIP has him as a 3, and WAR puts him as a #1.
If he had only put up these numbers for a month or two then I would certainly agree with your opinion that he hadn’t changed. But he has done it for a season and a half now, which is long enough to lead me to believe that it is here to stay for the time being.
Second, I thought your quote was funny because you said it as a definitive statement (you basically said it never has and never will happen) and you never specified the position until I brought it up. But if you want a prime example of a starting pitcher: RA Dickey. Some other examples of players figuring it out late into their careers are: Jose Bautista, Dante Bichette, Lefty O’Doul.
And I believe Randy Johnson does apply, he was a good pitcher before, but it wasn’t until he was 29/30 that he turned into the pitcher that made him a legend.
Lastly, I found it really really funny because imagine if coaches just told every player when they were 30 that they had no chance of improving.
Also, I’m not a Vikings fan if that helps?
R.A. Dickey is a pretty good example. He developed a fast knuckle at age 34 as it looked like his career was over and he put it to good use becoming a solid to excellent pitcher for 3 years before his performance tanked in a tough AL East with the Blue Jays.
So we’ll use R.A. Dickey as the precedent for Gibson under the context of Gibson’s change in pitch selection to feature his slider in prevalence is like adding a new pitch. I don’t agree it’s the same thing or have any faith Gibson’s performance is repeatable, but at least you have a viable theory to stand behind at this point.
Randy Johnson was an All Star at 26 and a Cy Young at 29. He didn’t figure it out at age 30+. You’re right, coaches don’t tell players they have no hope of improving; that’s the message the GM sends to players when they don’t get signed MLB contracts or the pitcher gets moved to the bullpen. Batters are not starting pitchers.
Teheran or Roark will not get a 3/45 in the current environment. All these guys are comps to lance lynn who received a 3/30. Roark is older so I don’t even see that for him. Assuming a typical season I think he maxes out at a 2/20. Teheran could get the lynn deal and Odo would be fortunate to get the Roark deal. Teams are not paying up for middle of the rotation guys who are aging. Too many times they’ve been burned by the Phil Hughes’ and Ian kennedy’s Of the world. I personally wouldn’t even be looking to extend Gibson if he wasn’t agreeable to a 3/30 because I think that’s a pretty fair price to extend him at.
Gibson is a good guy to extend. He’s replaced Dozier as “face of the franchise,” but in this case, his teammates seem to like him.
Dozier’s teammates didn’t like him? That’s news to me. What proof, or even gossip, do you have to support this?
The call out. A quality move. Especially since youll get no citations. And its a quality way to tarnish another post.
Thank you, clepto!
Obviously none of Roark/Chacin/Odorizzi/Teheran would be individually worth 3/45, but I’m pretty sure we could get two of them for that amount of $$.
Because these aren’t exactly idea options to choose from, I’m still holding out hope that we come to our senses and sign Keuchel.
The thing about Gibson is he never performs at the right time. A solid Mid – Rotation all the same.
This is pretty simple. Gibson is a #4 in a very good rotation. Average rotation, he is somewhere around a #3 or an excellent #4. Twins rotation, he is a #2.. And I am a Twins fan. I’m realistic about the team and it’s players. Berrios HAS the stuff to become an ace, but his realistic ceiling is a good #2. Gibson has found a little more something over the last year and a half, but nothing that makes him a pitcher one has to think about when looking pitchers going to an all-star game. Gibson is a quality arm that spots higher than normal in a questionable rotation. Now the new coaches might just be able to find a little more for him (along with Berrios, Odorizzi, Pineda and Perez)…and if they do, the Twins COULD have a better than average rotation. But it isn’t there yet.