We have examined the free agent market from just about every angle imaginable over the course of a long signing period. We’re largely shifting our focus here at MLBTR to analyzing the offseason (through our Offseason In Review series), but there is still work to be done in free agency.
MLBTR’s Steve Adams took a look at the market for ace reliever Craig Kimbrel, focusing on the financial situations of various teams that might conceivably consider splurging at this late stage of the offseason. If you’re interested in understanding things from that angle and haven’t done so already, give that post a read. The teams broken out there aren’t the only ones that arguably can and should still be in on Kimbrel; as Steve explained, he did not give a detailed look at some clubs given the stances they took throughout the winter.
For purposes of today’s poll, we’ll open the door a bit wider. In theory, at least, every organization that hopes to be competitive now or even in 2020 ought to have given some amount of thought to what it would pay to secure the services of one of the game’s elite relievers. We know that no team has met Kimbrel’s initial asking price of a record-breaking, long-term deal. Otherwise, the behind-the-scenes market development has been murky.
Clearly, something has to give. Kimbrel will settle for a deal he’s less than enthused about and/or an organization will go beyond its comfort zone. We’ll focus here on the team-side motivation and throw things wide open, removing only a few organizations from the poll. Which of the following clubs do you think ought to be most willing — given its near-term competitive outlook, roster needs, and other commitments — to splurge a bit to land Kimbrel?
(Response order randomized. Link for app users.)
baseballpun
Ham Fighters.
jasonr
Ya know, their name is just Fighters. Nippon Ham is the sponsor.
But I’ll agree, calling them the Ham Fighters is funner.
astromariner
You came so close, but just couldn’t stick the landing.
luclusciano
bahahaha. couldn’t stick the landing is the funner comment
ln13
Orioles!
dimitrios in la
As an O’s fan, keep him far away. Our closer will emerge in time (Givens, Kline, someone else) and at much better value.
knob
Y wood U need a closer?
The O’s will never b ahead in any games this season.
bleedpinstripes
What’s the Greek army’s motto??
Never leave your buddy’s behind…
Are you only a fan of the O’s because of the owners ethnicity? As I can’t imagine following a franchise that just doesn’t care about putting a professional team on the field.
wahoomaniac
Was totally going to cast that vote, then saw there are only 26 options.
ln13
Sarcasm is so completely lost on the internet.
osfandan
The Braves, Cubs, and Red Sox leaving this guy out there while trying to compete for a WS is just baffling.
nats3256
And my Nationals.
Dotnet22
Add the Cardinals to that list.
zan4pm
The Cardinals are going to have the best late inning setup in the league between Hicks/Miller/Reyes and possibly adding Carlos Martinez to the mix with his shoulder situation and the need to take innings off of his arm.
brewfan27
new york and Milwaukee are better
pmollan
Can you imagine him in the MKE pen? Starters would only need to cover 4 innings.
batty
So you would be ok with the pen, with Kimbrel, throwing throwing roughly 810 of a possible 1458 innings? That’s not even counting the extra innings that will absolutely happen. That would be not only reckless, but foolish.
Solar Flare
That would be crazy considering they already have a filthy bullpen spearheaded by Hader, Jeffress and Knebel.
dcahen
Zan4pm – the Cards May be like the response the Orioles’ fan got; with the starting rotation, will they ever get to use the supposed great set-up staff? Cardinal fans always think so highly of their team, it’s annoying, but in some respects it’s funny as well.
trill50
But yet they’re always in the thick of things.
teufelshunde4
Last season, can the 3 headed monster all top their career seasons? Only time will tell
RunDMC
ATL doesn’t have near the budget that CHC/BOS does — if Kimbrel wants anywhere close to what he’s been asking for, you can see why he’s still available.
DarkSide830
CHC acts like they have the budget of ATL
petfoodfella
Dumb comment is dumb. The Cubs have over $200m on the books right now. It’s like you all expect they’re using Monopoly Money.
osfandan
$200M and no WS (maybe no playoffs) or $220M and a real shot at a WS? Seems like a no brainer.
ChiSoxCity
Their new tv deal is projected to bring in an extra $100M per year. The cubs can print money.
vtadave
It’s more about the CBT penalties. Cots has them at $225 million , which is well over the $206 million threshold. They could sign Kimbrel and stay under the $246 million top level, but that would leave them little flexibility at the deadline this year.
rhutchinson
Lol Kimbrel is the difference between being a marginal playoff team and a WS contender?
deweybelongsinthehall
Tax implications will likely keep Boston on the sidelines unless another move is made that cuts payroll. Only big ticket item I continue to see is Porcello. It may though be that they will re-up with him. I expected they would trade him and since they didn’t perhaps his innings consistency is a factor now and later.
Cup'ojoe Simpson
Shocker to see the Braves leading…not!
MeowMeow
Maybe they want to spare their fans the stress of watching Kimbrel pitch. He got the job done last season but it was nerve-wracking.
jd396
People say that about every closer.
Soxfan912
It also really isn’t true. His 2017 was nothing short of amazing and he was great again in 2018. People only remember the playoffs, during which he was much less effective but blew zero saves. People forget that.
johnrealtime
He had a good 2018 but it was pretty far short of amazing
vtadave
LOL at blown saves. He allowed runs in four of his six saves and had a 5.91 ERA and 10:8 K:BB in 10.2 innings. He also had a 4.54 ERA in the second half. Not surprising at all that he’s still looking for work.
VonPurpleHayes
There’s never been a closer that wasn’t nerve-wracking. Mo in his prime was pretty lights out, sure. But even he had his moments and he was so far above everyone else.
pasha2k
Mo was unable to ever shut the Redsox down when it counted….remember 2004? Von otherwise I agree with you, Mo was terrific, it’s all emotional.
petfoodfella
Too expensive. This is a business and he’s not the Kimbrel of 2015
brian trashman
His stat line says otherwise
bostonbob
You didn’t witness him last year. Concerning despite the numbers.
GriffinGA
Braves are NOT trying to compete for the WS. Never will with current ownership / GM
gomerhodge71
Sox could have had Tony Sipp pretty cheap and never pursued. Looks like Boston will be headed for some lean times with key players leaving and little-to-no action in signing free agents.
nats3256
So my poll of the poll takers. did you pick the team that should sign him or just your team?
melkor77
Mine
jd396
Both
brockswipessecond
I’m a Cardinals fan, but I picked the Cubs because is makes the most sense. He needs a team, they’re a contender in need of a closer. That being said … they aren’t going to sign him.
astromariner
I picked the Braves. The Astros should absolutely not sign him. I’d pick the Astros if there was a Keuchel poll.
Phanatic 2022
I picked the Red Sox
VonPurpleHayes
I picked the Rays because I think they can surprise people in that division. Plus they’re so wacky they may use Kimbrel in the 3rd inning or something.
johnrealtime
If you look at the results you can see that many definitely just picked their team. horrible choices
Melchez
My team wasn’t listed. Go tigers.
lukeintothedaze
Dodgers fan, but I picked the braves
thethrill
Giants fan – picked Brewers
Would make their 7-9 very solid
Frisco500
Red Sox
anthonyd4412
Cubs
Cardinals17
Cardinals
frankf
The Lakers. They’re desperate enough to try anything.
kodiak920
LeBron has authorized Magic to sign Kimbrel.
ChiSoxCity
If anyone ever needed a closer, it’s LeBron.
dugdog83
Haha
greg 14
What’s the name of the Independent League team all of the washed up guys sign with? I vote for that.
HalosHeavenJJ
Sugerland Skeeters
andthenisaid
+1
bastros88
long island ducks
costanza
All of them.
reflect
The Rafael Palmeiros
slowcurve
Got my fantasy team name, thanks.
slowcurve
I used to be the Rafael Belliards
EasternLeagueVeteran
The Somerset Patriots
jdgoat
Red Sox need him. Looks like they waited him out and won.
GaryWarriorsRedSoxx
I like the sound of that and that would make sense but I think Kimbrell knows he’s slipping and wants a four or five-year deal.
At the same time the Red Sox know he’s slipping and will only give him a two-year deal. We’ll see how it plays out.
Corazon5
It’s pretty clear at this point that Boston aren’t gonna sign Kimbrel. With the tax situation what it is, It’s gonna be way too expensive. However, they should have had a look at Tony Sipp if his price tag was 1.25 million. They could really use a lefty.
HalosHeavenJJ
His team last year.
Oxford Karma
The Indians bullpen fell apart and their payroll went down. They should take a shot
DarkSide830
they were my choice too. Perfect combo of need and payroll situation to call signing an elite closer “splurging.”
Indiansjoe
Way to cheap to do that, but would make the offseason look more like a win than a loss if they did. I would have more confidence in the post season picture if they added him
lowtalker1
Fix your polls
They still don’t work
Yelsnit
Looks like it worked for over 2000 people.
lowtalker1
The last three, I get “not authorized”, “you’re forbidden to access this page”.
astromariner
Sounds like a personal problem to me.
fox471 Dave
Have to agree. Have you seen some of lowtalker’s posts recently? Surprised he or she is not banned from talking about baseball for life.
chicagofan1978
Classy
EasternLeagueVeteran
Ditto. I voted and the i wasn’t authorized to see the results.
vtadave
How does one get banned from participating in polls?
lukewalker
Poor choice of words
mike156
The problem for Kimbrel is that he looks more and more like that really expensive convertible sold by one dealer in town with a reputation for being difficult on warranties. Great on the weekends during the Spring and Summer, and maybe on better weather days in the Fall, but you can’t use it all the time, it costs a ton to buy and insure, and do you really really need it? Really?
RunDMC
I appreciate how deep you went into that simile. You painted me a picture.
srechter
I actually quite like this comparison
bhambrave
Exactly. My 2009 F-150 isn’t sexy, but it’s reliable and gets me where I want to go. Plus, it’s paid for.
R.D.
Is Fernando Rodney a ’92 Ford Pickup that refuses to die then?
ChiSoxCity
It’s still a depreciating asset.
AtlSoxFan
Depends how long you own it. Unlike ballplayers, keep a truck (or basically any vehicle with less than 4 doors) long enough and it becomes an appreciating asset again that goes for multiples of what it cost new. Heck, even 80s trucks now go for near original sticker value if kept up nice
vtadave
Please provide your Bartol0 Colon car analogy.
bastros88
I don’t really blame teams, yeah he’s an elite closer, but I think his inability to perform well in tough spots or in the postseason really hurts him.
adkuchan
He wasn’t light out, but he also didn’t blow any saves in the post season.
Intense pressure and great lineups make it difficult for any reliever in post season play.
At that point no one cares how you get it done. A win is a win.
DarkSide830
one may also remember Houston won the WS with Giles.
Roxman
Who cares where he signs? He’s not worth the money he’s asking for.
lefty58
For 1 or 2 years he makes sense, anything more and I wouldn’t touch him.
RunDMC
Yankees.
ChiSoxCity
They have Chapman, Britton and Ottavino. Why would they waste more money on a releiver?
Solar Flare
They also have Betances and Green, who are both elite relievers as well as Holder, who has the potential to be one.
Al Jab
I wanted to choose Marlins, not a choice
LosAngelesAngelesAngelesAngels
Twinny Twin Twins
DarkSide830
good idea if they get Keuchel too. they would be the most logical choice to get both, but not either.
Phil253
Post season performance foreshadows what’s to come. 1yr 9mil to the Astros.
Soxfan912
I really thought the Astros would be higher on the list. Their starting rotation depth isnt what it used to be and their bullpen has some question marks.
ScottRC
NO ONE!!!!
tiredolddude
Package deal:
Keuchel and Kimbrel to Hiroshima Karp
Vizionaire
mr. moreno, spend more to have a winner. the rotation is already hurting!
citizen
Atlanta has the money, liberty media just doesnt want to spend it.
Would you rather have harper and his .128 BA in the 9th or a closer to slam the door shut.
hiflew
Since Atlanta isn’t going to have either most likely, I’m not understanding what those two sentences have to do with each other.
jd396
Excellent I-have-an-agenda post.
canocorn
Corporate ownership is risk-averse.
number1dodger
I think he looks like an idiot. My wife said he looks like a scarecrow.
hiflew
It’s kind of weird that potential playoff teams like the A’s and Rockies have fewer votes than teams like the White Sox, Mariners, and Pirates.
ChiSoxCity
The A’s and Rockies have elite closers.
hiflew
So? Teams like the Yankees have had three elite closers. It’s a long season and roles can change in almost every bullpen.
ChiSoxCity
The A’s and Rockies don’t have the Yankees’ budget, that’s why. Next stupid question…
jd396
Been getting “Not Authorized” errors on the links to polls the last few days, when trying to vote.
Comrade Tipsy McStagger
I know Kimbrel’s age plays a factor in a long-term deal and that many teams are reluctant to fork over so much money for a reliever, but is there something behind the scenes we may be missing other than “market forces?” He has an impeccable track record. Have there been any concerns about his fastball or curveball of late? Or this all about age, draft pick, and money?
Soxfan912
I think the playoffs left a bad taste in people’s mouth. He could probably still get solid money on a short term deal, but maybe he is unwilling to consider it so far
braves25
I personally think it is more about the draft pick some teams might lose. A one year deal for someone just doesn’t make sense when you lose a draft pick too.
The 3 teams that make the most sense are the Braves, Red Sox, or Ray’s. The Ray’s historically draft pretty well and continually build their team through the draft. The Braves basically can’t sign any international feee agents so they HAVE to draft well. This could also be why the Braves didn’t make any big trades…This leaves the Red Sox, but that would put them over the luxury tax.
bush1
I think that’s a great point about the draft pick. I also agree that the picks attached to guys on one or two yr deals kill their market, and it rarely gets brought up. Front offices get off on hitting on draft picks, so most overvalue these picks just because it gives them a greater chance to luck into a pick that hits. Especially in a sport like baseball where it’s so hard to draft well with all the variables.
bravesfan
Overwhelmingly the braves and no question about it they should. Biggest offseason need, and we did nothing to improve the bullpen this winter. We had much cheaper opportunities also cause this market was stacked of good bullpen arms
GriffinGA
Braves have zero interest in winning – mlb.nbcsports.com/2019/02/14/braves-think-their-fa…
timewalk42
Your to old old let go nobody is gonna pay your price and eat 2/3 years of a worn out bullpen arm
ChiSoxCity
The idiot Cubs should have signed him months ago (Brad Brach…really?). Both the starting closer and backup closer is hurt, and the organization is still heavily invested in what once was a championship roster. They had the 3rd highest revenues in the MLB last year, so what is their excuse?
bush1
Are you familiar with their current payroll? They’re already $20 million over the first tier already. My guess is your just going out of your way to talk badly about the Cubs because that White Sox fans do. Congrats, on the Machado deal. All that “preparation” Kenny and crew did worked out awesome!
ChiSoxCity
You obviously have not grasped how much money the cubs have made off people like you. Any organization raking in $500M a year in revenues can afford to add a single relief pitcher. They didn’t need Brach, they needed a real bonafide closer. The new tv deal nets them another $100M. That’s $600M. Annually. Think about that for a minute. They could have added anyone they wanted to, and barely scratch the surface of their revenue stream. It should make you a little angry, maybe even a little sick.
kiddhoff
Braves need a Kimbrell-type reliever for the next few years. They can either go ahead and overpay at about 5yr/$80mil, and capitalize on the homecoming spin, or, risk turning off Braves fans with every blown save by Viscaino.
vtadave
5/80 would be a massive overbid. Doubt anyone is offering much more than 3/45.
imgman09
None for those Years,if it’s one or 2 then anyone
Tigers2384
If they could get him for 1 year, 9million and he’d be tradeable by mid season, I’d like to see the Tigers spend the money. Although I wouldn’t commit to him being a closer. He’d be the relief ace .
nicktrombino
Any chance he could be frustrated by missing out on the market and the Red Sox for NOT paying him, and just join the Yankees on a 1 year high AAV? How crazy would that bullpen look then!
Soxfan912
I mean never say never, but the Yankees are already likley to be over the luxury tax and already have 50MM tied up to bullpen arms in 2019. So I wouldnt count on it
HartnellDown
Phillies.
LeylandsLung
why would you leave 4 teams off the list? there are surely more than 4 teams already eliminated from the playoffs.
Miguel Jr
Why would they leave the other teams out? Must have ran out of ink at 26!
fox471 Dave
I think the Dodgers. Concerned about the health of Jansen.
macstruts
When the year is over, maybe one or two teams would have benefited from Kimbrel’s service and no one knows which teams.
If the Red Sox need bullpen help, they’ll find it in July. Atlanta wont even be in the playoff chase in July. If the Phillies pen isn’t good enough now, It’s not going to be good enough with Kimbrel.
2012orioles
Nationals should splurge, but the braves should sign him more as a necessity
jeb39999
It’s late enough now for the Twins to step in and offer a one year deal
dmarcus15
After the Holland bomb last year 0 chances Cards sign him.
canocorn
Windmill implosion.
O Conchobhair
How about an option of nobody on the poll?
Mistakes made every year. Should’ve taken the QO.
Rickeo02
Definitely the Yankees since they have no starters
derail76
I voted Dodgers even there’s probably zero chance. Friedman didn’t even want to give Kenley Jansen, Kenley Jansen money. But man, if Kenley is healthy again and last year was a fluke, Kenley, Kimbrel and Kelly going 7-9 sounds pretty nice. Then you’d have a bunch of guys like Baez, Cingrani, Floro, Chargois, Alexander, Ferguson, Urias (to keep innings down maybe?) etc. That pen would dominate, and you’d think wouldn’t have the let downs that cost them the last two World Series.
Rich Hill’s Elbow
I’m predicting 3/48, same AAV as Jansen, just less years. While I’d love it if the Twins were truly in on him, I really doubt it’s gonna happen at this point. Besides, I’d rather have Keuchel since Berrios is our only SP controlled beyond 2019.
For Kimbrel’s services I believe it’s really gonna come down to the Phillies, Red Sox, or Braves. If the price is low enough, I don’t see why the Sox wouldn’t bring him back for a few more WS runs. If not, Phillies for sure.
BigFred
Good to see we’re all pretty much in agreement in our thinking about which team should pick him up .
Solar Flare
Yomiuri Giants
dan-9
The 4 teams not given as options were the Tigers, Orioles, Marlins and Royals.
Solar Flare
If you’re going to leave them off, why include teams that don’t need a closer?
GriffinGA
#FireAA. Braves have $ 442 million in revenue and should have a $ 221 million payroll, instead they are under $ 120 million. Do not sign Kimbrel now this team has no chance to win the WS and ownership and zero interest in winning. sports.yahoo.com/braves-rolling-money-aren-t-16054…
gabriel33
The Braves are not getting Kimbrel. 2018 is in the rearview mirror. That ship has sailed. Feel free to add any other cliche you can think of.. The Braves are still not getting Kimbrel.
benz27
Will it be possible for a rebuilding team to sign him and eat his salary in order to flip him nearer to the trade deadline? Relievers are always valuable at the deadline especially premier closers like Kimbrel, so he probably can easily fetch 2 high end prospects. I dont see why a team like the Tigers/White Sox shouldnt offer him a 3/4 year deal as they essentially buy a top prospect or two with their extra payroll space they are unlikely to use anyways.
54scooterb
Cubs…with Strop down the time is now.
Begamin
Red Sox, Rays, Indians, Twins could all use bullpen help
Foreveryankees
I wouldn’t give him $100,000, a year! He’s a bum!
Dutch Vander Linde
Miami Marlins!!
Strike Four
Could you imagine the A’s throwing Kimbrel, Treinen, Soria and Trivino at a team after the 6th? A possibility of no runs ever + cheapest team ever = No titles ever.
EasternLeagueVeteran
Piratas de Campeche
EasternLeagueVeteran
Tigres de Quintana Roo
EasternLeagueVeteran
I wanted to vote for the Tigers or the Pirates, but the poll wouldn’t let me !
doxiedevil
Philly’s have the money and want to win now, Harper may win 12 games with his bat but Kimbrel would save 40 for certain.
twiker
Phillies already have an over crowded bullpen with Arano and Ramos headed for AAA after posting sub2.5 era’s in 2018
Core4
Looks pretty Bad when ur old team , who clearly could use a bullpen arm, dosent even try to get u back.. say what u want about cheap teams, this says more about Kimbrel over thinking his worth and teams seeing things in his game last yr that worry about commiting longterm to the vet. I tend to agree. I wouldn’t invest big money over 4 to 5 yrs to Kimbrel if I was a GM rite now either
teddyjackeddy
I guess Kimbrel doesn’t realize that the whole world saw that in the 2018 postseaon , he couldn’t find the plate with a compass.
28rings
Yankees should sign him and go with an opener.
VegasSDfan
Orioles! Oh wait they never sign anyone, but they think about it
VegasSDfan
I voted for the Phillies.
HarveyD82
how in the hell is this guy not singed and in st? something is wrong here…
El Kabong
I don’t think any team should “splurge” on Kimbrel. Even teams in true need of a closer are passing and not even willing to negotiate. It makes me think the consensus around baseball is he doesn’t have much left. Getting those last three outs is important. I’d just rather try getting them from someone else.