This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.
The fruits of a relatively short rebuilding effort in Milwaukee manifested with an NL Central division title, a NLCS run against the Dodgers and dramatic increase in expectations after years of mediocrity.
Major League Signings
- Yasmani Grandal, C: One year, $18.25MM (includes $2MM buyout on 2020 mutual option)
- Mike Moustakas, 2B/3B: One year, $10MM
- Cory Spangenberg, 2B/3B/OF: One year, $1.2MM (split Major League contract)
- Jake Petricka, RHP: $900K (split Major League contract)
- Total spend: $30.35MM
Trades and Claims
- Acquired RHPs Bobby Wahl, RHP Adam Hill and 2B Felix Valerio from the Mets in exchange for OF Keon Broxton
- Acquired LHP Alex Claudio from the Rangers in exchange for Competitive Balance Round A draft pick
- Acquired OF Ben Gamel, RHP Noah Zavolas from Mariners in exchange for OF Domingo Santana
Notable Minor League Signings
Notable Losses
- Gio Gonzalez, Wade Miley, Joakim Soria, Curtis Granderson, Jonathan Schoop, Jordan Lyles, Xavier Cedeno, Dan Jennings
[Milwaukee Brewers depth chart | Milwaukee Brewers payroll outlook]
Needs Addressed
Entering the offseason with a pair of catchers who combined to hit .246/.296/.379, the Brewers had a clear need behind the plate. While Manny Pina and Erik Kratz gave the Brewers quality defense behind the dish in terms of framing and controlling the running game, their lack of offense was a clear negative. Brewers president of baseball operations David Stearns and his staff clearly agreed, and while they didn’t feel strongly enough to make a significant play for a free agent on a multi-year contract, they deftly swooped in and secured Yasmani Grandal, the open market’s top catcher, on a one-year deal worth $18.25MM after Grandal apparently didn’t find any multi-year offers that were to his liking (despite numerous reports indicating that he received substantial multi-year offers from the likes of the Mets, Twins and White Sox).
Maybe Grandal was stung a bit by recency bias — his postseason showing was nightmarish on both sides of the ball — but the 30-year-old finished second among MLB catchers in total home runs and led all MLB backstops (min. 300 PAs) with a hefty .225 ISO (slugging minus batting average). Salvador Perez is the only catcher with more home runs than Grandal over the past four seasons, and among qualified backstops, only Gary Sanchez and Robinson Chirinos have higher ISO marks. That the Brewers were able to add one of baseball’s most powerful catchers — one who consistently rates as a premium framer with a solid caught-stealing rate — on a one-year pact is a feather in an already plumage-laden cap for the front office.
Entering the 2018 season, much was made of Milwaukee’s glut of outfielders, and that relative logjam came into greater focus this winter with both Domingo Santana and Keon Broxton out of options and clearly lacking a path to playing time with the Brewers. Broxton and Santana were turned into a potential bullpen piece — Bobby Wahl, though he’s since unfortunately suffered an ACL tear — and another interesting outfielder with a minor league option remaining: Ben Gamel. Stearns & Co. further bolstered the ’pen by swapping their Competitive Balance draft pick for lefty Alex Claudio. Unlike many other trades in which teams have shipped off those rare, tradeable picks for marginal assets or even pure salary relief, the Brewers landed a useful left-handed arm who’ll make their club better in 2019 and beyond, as Claudio can be controlled through 2021.
In need of infield help after spending an otherwise successful season jamming square pegs into second-base, third-base and shortstop-shaped holes, the Brewers did sign a pair of infielders in the form of a returning Mike Moustakas and former Padre Cory Spangenberg. The return of “Moose” will at the very least bolster an already formidable Milwaukee lineup by adding a bat that’s swatted 66 long balls over the past 300 games.
Questions Remaining
The Moustakas addition seems like an apt place to transition from the “needs addressed” to the “questions remaining” section, given that it’s anyone’s guess as to how Moustakas will adjust to his new role as a second baseman. He’s never played the position in the past but is getting his feet wet this spring in preparation for serving as Milwaukee’s everyday option at the position. It’s an unorthodox move but one that is backed by at least some logic. Milwaukee is typically aggressive in its infield shifting. Moustakas has played on the right side of the infield in the past when shifting there against left-handed hitters as a third baseman. The position may not ultimately feel *that* foreign to him.
Some may argue that the Brewers swooped in on Moustakas in a similar manner to the way they did Grandal. But Grandal was a more unique asset, whereas the Brewers paid a fairly sizable (but still reasonable) sum to once again play a veteran infielder out of position. For the same $10MM they promised to Moustakas, the Brewers could’ve signed Brian Dozier or brought Jonathan Schoop back aboard to play his natural position. Even if the Brewers weren’t keen on a bounceback candidate at the position, Moustakas’ $10MM guarantee is the same as Jed Lowrie’s annual rate on his two-year pact with the Mets. It’s only slightly shy of the $12MM annual value on DJ LeMahieu’s two-year deal with the Yankees. Even at his more natural third base, Moustakas would only be projected to be worth two or two-and-a-half wins above replacement. For this price, it seems like the Brewers could’ve gotten a natural second baseman without incurring much long-term risk.
For the second straight spring, however, the largest question many have regarding Milwaukee is whether the team should have added more starting pitching. Jhoulys Chacin, last winter’s lone big league signing, is slated to take the ball on Opening Day. But the Brewers didn’t add a starter this winter after bidding adieu to both Wade Miley and Gio Gonzalez, instead banking on the return of a healthy Jimmy Nelson and doubling down in their faith in young righties Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta — each of whom tallied significant innings in the Majors last season. That group, paired with holdovers Chase Anderson, Zach Davies and Junior Guerra, will be tasked with rounding out the starting staff and at least getting the Brewers to the trade deadline.
It’s a lot to ask from a unit full of pitchers that either have lacked consistency (Anderson, Davies, Guerra) or lack MLB starting experience (Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta), but the group undeniably features plenty of talent. A healthy Nelson in 2017 was one of the National League’s most valuable starting pitchers. Burnes and Woodruff were well-regarded as prospects and both impressed in bullpen roles last season, with Burnes in particular showing off-the-charts spin on his fastball and curveball. Peralta was serviceable in 14 starts last season with secondary stats that were more impressive than his pedestrian 4.25 ERA.
It’s technically possible that the Brewers could make one final late-offseason splash, bringing in Dallas Keuchel or striking some kind of surprise trade, but the Brewers have continually showed faith in their internal arms by eschewing significant free-agent splashes over the past two offseasons. Owner Mark Attanasio would need to further push up an already club-record $128MM Opening Day payroll projection, and any new free-agent addition would need time to get up to speed and get into game-ready shape. Frankly, another addition doesn’t seem all that likely, but if Milwaukee’s starting staff is in tatters early in the year, there’ll be no shortage of people wondering why the reigning division champs opted to forgo a more stable addition.
Looking beyond the rotation, there’s even a bit of uncertainty within the team’s vaunted bullpen. Specifically, Jeremy Jeffress is battling a shoulder issue that has limited him substantially in Spring Training. Jeffress was a major part of getting the Brewers to the postseason in ’18, forming a dominant trio with Josh Hader and Corey Knebel. Those two should still be a powerful one-two punch late in games, but any relief corps is going to look a bit less imposing when you subtract a reliever who posted a 1.29 ERA in 76 2/3 regular-season innings.
2019 Season Outlook
Rotation questions aside, the Brewers will boast a formidable lineup with quality overall defense (particularly from Lorenzo Cain, Christian Yelich, Travis Shaw and Orlando Arcia) and a bullpen featuring two of the game’s top strikeout specialists. A return to health for Nelson and even one of the aforementioned young arms cementing himself as a viable mid-rotation starter would quiet a substantial portion of fan concern regarding the pitching staff, and if two members of that youth movement step up, the Brewers will look wise to have shown restraint.
A much-improved Reds roster, the Cardinals’ acquisition of Paul Goldschmidt and potential returns to health for Kris Bryant and Yu Darvish in Chicago should make the NL Central an even tougher division for all five clubs in 2019. But the Brewers could be getting a star of their own back (Nelson), and they’ll still head into the upcoming season not just with an eye on defending the division crown but with legitimate World Series aspirations. They’ll quite likely need another acquisition or two at baseball’s now-single trade deadline on July 31 — there won’t be another run of August acquisitions for Stearns & Co. — but I’ll be surprised if Milwaukee isn’t firmly in the postseason hunt once again this summer.
How would you grade the Brewers’ offseason? (link to poll for Trade Rumors app users)
Brett Lawrie
Yea was hoping for an update, mention of this.
C
Gandal signing was incredible
Moose signing seems unnecessary when Lowrie would have been a better fit
They have ignored their rotation which is their weakest spot and has a ton of regression in it, especially Peralta and Anderson. Need the young starters to really break out.
Not getting Gio or a slew of low risk veteran starters for cheap deals seems like a massive miss. For $5-10M in payroll allocation could make all the difference in their season.
I wouldn’t call the Grandal signing incredible. It is an upgrade from what they had though. They lost a lot of pitching. Pitching that pitched well for them last year.
Their rotation is horrible, Josh Tomlin will probably be their ace at season’s end.
Clearly you are someone who knows baseball. Tomlin isn’t even a lock to make the big league club
Doesn’t that by itself say every thing? He’s so bad he might not make the club, but could be good enough to be their best pitcher
No it doesn’t because if he makes the club he wouldn’t be their best arm. Whoever thinks Tomlin could be good enough to be the brewers best starter doesn’t follow baseball
I follow baseball and he absolutely could be their best starter, because their rotation is garbage. It’s the worst rotation of a playoff hopeful team. Tomlin’s 2019 projection isn’t much worse than Chacin, their projected ace.
So you base your opinions off of projections? Also what projections are you using exactly? ESPN has Tomlin projected at 43 total innings pitched and a 5.30 ERA. Baseball reference has Tomlin at a 4.88 ERA in 96 innings. FanGraphs has him at a 5.03 ERA over 97 innings.
Chacin is at a 3.87 over 172 IP on baseball reference and a 3.79 over 177 innings on EPSN.
If you consider almost 100 innings difference and over a full run “not far off” I am not quite sure what you are looking at.
Seems like you need to follow baseball a little closer. Milwaukee’s starters were in the top ten in all of baseball last season, and the rotation has improved.
Sounds like you all need to follow baseball more.
They were top 10 in rotation FIP?
They were 17th in FIP, which was the worst among playoff teams, and they lost Gio.
They were #5 in ERA. See, I can cherry pick stats also!
And ERA isn’t a predictor of how they will perform in 2019, but FIP is.
You’re still cherry picking.
FIP is a pretty standard and widely accepted pitching stat.
STEAMER projects them to have a 4.42 rotation ERA and 7.2 fWAR, 23rd best in baseball and the worst among all playoff hopeful teams.
And that’s last in the NL Central, it’s a garbage rotation that either needs to see a healthy Nelson show back up or young guys to emerge and take steps forward.
The Brewers were projected to lose over 90 games and be the worst team in the majors in 2017. They won 86. Then the Brewers were projected to only win 79 last year. Both projections done by the same outfit that you are citing.
Fool you once, shame on them. Fool you twice, shame on you. Fool you three times, you’re just a fool.
Those projections are done using very traditional thinking on player usage. They can’t take into account a team using players in a non-traditional way, as the Brewers do. It would be completely unsurprising to see the Brewers go piggy-back with their starters twice a week. Throw one guy three innings, another one the next three, then go to the bullpen. STEAMER projections are completely unfit to take this type of usage into account.
They’ll probably trade him to a contender by the deadline.
Their starters will all look like aces with that bullpen. Starters will only have to pitch 5 innings. Never having to see the same batter 3 times.
Really believe that Anderson and Davies need to start the season in AAA. Guerra as the long reliever. If the Brewers start to falter out of the gate at short or second gotta believe they shouldnt hesitate to bring up Dubon or Huira. Look for Brown and Houser to help bullpen this year a lot. I do worry if Gamel, Thames and Perez can produce enough to keep Braun rested. Could make Taylor as a valuable fourth outfielder. Really hope Lawrie could be a good spark plug by June 1 as a possible super utility player
I still expect a late trade to remedy the Thanes and Anderson/Davies situation.
They lost their ace and they still dont have a #1 or #2. They added one player and re-signed moose.
What did the Cubs do? Just curious. Oh and don’t say “get healthy” because so did the Brewers with Nelson and Davies and a full year of Knebel.
It’s hard to support a team that is STILL complaining in March that they had to play as many games as everyone else did. They were SO SO TIRED – how could anyone expect them to finish the season? Every story in the the Cub press had the word “fatigue” in it two or three times. Oh, and then they fire all the coaches every year as scapegoats for the the terrible free agent signings that the smartest man in America continues to make. For a Cub fan dealing with reality isn’t always easy.
Thought Harper was gonna be a Cub? Oh wait Ricketts said the team is broke, while starting a new regional network with Sinclair broadcasting.. Get ready for Trump loving spin coupled with Cubs baseball.. Those two are made for each other.. Both got lucky in 2016 and been poop shows ever since.. Dynasty’s my arse.
Stop saying this garbage troll. I still don’t know if you’re talking about Miley or Gonzalez, but either way, both were number 4’s at best for them.
Right JDGoat? It’s like all that Bryzzoed guy likes to do is troll. Adds no insight whatsoever. Just like when he kept saying all last year during the season the brewers weren’t good. Until they won the division then he called it luck
I don’t find Grandal to be that much of an upgrade for the price. I agree that they had better opportunities to fill 2B. While I can see not bargain bin shopping for starters, I agree that a Solid Veteran to help anchor would have been a better investment than some of the directions they took. I do like the young arms a lot better than whats left currently, and am not expecting Kuechel to drop his asking price much.
Grandal is going to have a big year offensively getting to play in miller park vs playing in pitcher friendly LA. The rotation is going to be fine. David Stearns knows what he’s doing and all the negative talkers will see soon enough that the brewers are a threat to represent the NL in the World Series this year.
So he’s a big upgrade if you don’t factor in his salary? How is that not a big upgrade period, then?
I think the “years of mediocrity” and “relatively short rebuilding effort” seem a little contradictory. I guess I would have preferred some mention of the 2008 and 2011 seasons in there but I guess I get your point. I honestly have not read any further yet and fully expect the rest of it to be an enjoyable article like so many previous.
Sorry about being the “content” (not grammar) police. Maybe i should have not posted. .
I enjoyed the rest.
Best FO in all of MLB, a model for every other small market team. Sure, Sterns mis-fires sometimes; who doesn’t? A completely model franchise.
Besides a division what did Crew win last season? A single division is enough to anoint Crew FO best in MLB? Really? LMAO
Im not a Dodger fan, but they have done more without rebuilding or overspending on bad FA deals to stay contenders.
The difference between operating a low revenue team like the Brewers and an ultra-revenue team like the Dodgers is geometric besides being arithmetic. Over the past 5 years, the Brewers have won an average of 81 a year, on revenues of about 225M. The Dodgers: 94 wins with revenues of 600M. 400M a year for 13 more wins a year.
LA’s FO has done an OK job, but there’s NO excuse for them NOT to do well; frankly, they should have done better.
I wish the Brewers could absorb all the contracts of Carl Crawford, Andre Ethier, AGon, Scott Kazmir, Brett Anderson, Brandon McCarthy, Chase Utley, Howie Kendrick, Matt Kemp… on $10+ million dollar deals just a couple of seasons ago and still have money left over to have 2 great pitchers getting paid well over $25 million.
The first paragraph ends with a sentence which badly, BADLY needs editing. Way too long. Sheesh.
D. Signed a mediocre catcher, a terrible defensive 2B (have you seen Moose play in spring?) and ignored the rotation while the Reds and Cardinals significantly upgraded their teams. They’ll finish 3rd behind the cubs and cardinals because Yelich will come back to earth and Locain’s age will catch up to him.
Please explain how Grandal is a mediocre catcher? Moose defensively I will give you because we just don’t know yet. The Brewers made additions and you still have them behind the Cubs. Why? Who did the Cubs add?
Any article about the Brewers really brings out the salty Cubs bandwagon fans.
Because of fear.
I’ve seen people say they should have gotten Gio on the cheap, based on his Yankees deal. But, his Yankees deal is 3 million, plus 300K for each start. Meaning for the Yankees, especially if he doesn’t opt out and they move him to the bullpen after their starters return, it’s a cheap deal. If you’re looking at using him for 20+ starts, it’d still be $10 million+. Which, yes, still a reasonable one year deal, but at that price, you can also just argue that instead of paying 10 million a year for bottom of the rotation, just pay more and get Keuchel.
It seems everyone that knocks the Brewers starting rotation suffers from out-dated thinking. Thinking that a starting rotation has to be five guys throwing six or seven inning. That’s not what led the Brewers to be 5th in MLB in team ERA last year, and it’s not how the team is set-up for the coming season.