This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.
After one last, half-hearted gasp with the scattered remains of 2015’s championship core, the Royals have finally committed fully to a rebuild.
Major League Signings
- Billy Hamilton, CF: One year, $5.25MM plus mutual option
- Chris Owings, UTL: One year, $3MM
- Jake Diekman, LHP: One year, $2.75MM plus mutual option
- Brad Boxberger, RHP: One year, $2.2MM
- Terrance Gore, OF: One year, $650K
- Kyle Zimmer, RHP: One year, $555K
- Total spend: $14.2MM
Trades and Claims
- Selected RHP Sam McWilliams from Rays with 2nd overall pick in Rule 5 Draft
- Acquired RHP Chris Ellis from Rangers for cash considerations after he was selected from Cardinals with 8th overall pick in Rule 5 Draft
Extensions
- Whit Merrifield, 2B/OF: $16.25MM over four years with club option
Notable Minor League Signings
- Drew Storen, Homer Bailey, Andres Machado (re-signed), Jason Adam (re-signed), Taylor Featherston, Winston Abreu
Notable Losses
Needs Addressed
An ’18 return to 100-loss territory, a land so often populated by the club in the early part of the century, marked a bitter end to the Royals’ most successful run in ages. With meager expectations at most spots on the roster, the club oversaw a rather quiet offseason. Bargain bullpen pickups were collected, some with significant upside, and the Royals again chased down a couple of burners to roam the Kauffman prairie.
Billy Hamilton, non-tendered just before the late-November deadline by the Reds, serves as the big-ticket item here. The 28-year-old checks all of Kansas City’s favorite boxes: speed, defense, a contact-oriented approach (albeit one without much contact), and a strong presence in the clubhouse. The longed-for breakout still hasn’t arrived, as Hamilton’s offensive profile – super-soft contact, a curiously high pop-up rate, and an ongoing inability to work the count – has stayed mostly stagnant in his five career big-league seasons. He’s a savant on the bases, though, maybe an all-time great, and could lead the AL in swipes if he sits atop manager Ned Yost’s lineup for much of the year. And if a plate surge is still to come, if Hamilton starts filling those massive gaps with liners and shows a newfound devotion to the strike zone, the Royals could have the steal of the decade: the speedster has, after all, posted two seasons of almost 3.0 fWAR despite never having eclipsed the 80 wRC+ plateau.
Kansas City, under GM Dayton Moore’s watch, has never soured on its taste for former top prospects (especially of the homegrown variety), and again took a bite this offseason with the inking of utilityman Chris Owings to a minor deal. Owings should see plenty of time in the infield, with much of it likely coming at the hot corner, and he’ll look to a rebound from a career-worst output in 2018. The 27-year-old shares many Hamilton traits, including a longstanding allergy to the walk, but he did up his hard-hit rate to a career-high 39% late season despite an ugly .206/.272/.302 batting line. The contact-over-discipline has philosophy has invited scorn from all manner of pundits during Moore’s tenure, and can at times yield disastrous results (especially, as has been the case with Hamilton and Owings, when the low-walk totals aren’t offset by suppressed K rates), but the Royals remain zealous devotees.
On the pitching side, Brad Boxberger, Jake Diekman, and Drew Storen were all brought in to shore up a shoddy pen that ranked last among all MLB teams with -2.2 fWAR last year. The club needs more than just that aging trio, of course, but it’s nonetheless a massive upgrade from ’18, when failed starters and low-impact mercenaries were expected to fill the shoes of former giants. Boxberger, who was Arizona’s closer for much of last season, at times seems unhittable; other times, he looks lost, missing too often over the middle of the plate, or being unable to find it entirely. Kauffman’s dimensions should negate his gopher-ball itch, but seem an ill fit for Diekman, who keeps most of his contact in play. Storen hasn’t been effective in years, but comes with almost zero risk on a minors deal. His pedigree, too, is right up the Royals’ alley.
Questions Remaining
The Royals did almost nothing to address a torched rotation, adding just Homer Bailey and Kyle Zimmer low-commitment deals. The club apparently has high hopes for Jakob Junis and Brad Keller, both of whom were around league-average in ’18. Both are useful, young, affordable pitchers, though neither scouts nor stats seem to see much in the way of upside. Otherwise, veterans Danny Duffy and Ian Kennedy will look to rediscover their form, while Jorge Lopez and Ben Lively are among the other 40-man options. It’s an underwhelming unit on the whole. Help is on the way – the club plucked polished college arms with each of its four first-round picks, all of which came in the top 40 – but still a couple years out. In the meantime, KC might have done well to lock down a Drew Pomeranz/Mike Fiers-type or two (low-cost options with fly-ball tendencies).
With Salvador Perez expected to undergo Tommy John surgery, catcher is now an issue as well. The club has been connected recently with free agent Martin Maldonado, but subsequent reports suggest the team is more comfortable going with a questionable Cam Gallagher/Meibrys Viloria duo. The latter is seen in some circles as a rather intriguing prospect, but he has yet to play above the High-A level apart from a late-2018 taste of the majors. Perez will miss the entire season if he goes under the knife, so a stopgap would fit nicely, but the Royals have always prized in-house options more than outside ones.
The plan for the rest of the roster involves a series of dice throws. KC will give first base to Ryan O’Hearn, who earned a longer look after an eye-opening late-season debut but hasn’t produced much offense in two seasons at Triple-A. Hunter Dozier didn’t thrive in 2018, his first substantial MLB time, but the oft-injured top draft pick appears to be in line for much of the time at third. In the outfield/DH mix, the Royals have a foursome of former top-100 prospects vying for time: Brett Phillips, Jorge Bonifacio, Brian Goodwin, and Jorge Soler. All have flashed talent at times but each is still looking to find his ceiling — or, at least, consistent production and a steady MLB role. There’d be more chances to work with were it not for the ongoing presence of Alex Gordon in left field. He has posted a dreadful .225/.310/.355 slash line since signing a four-year, $72MM deal that will expire at season’s end. It’s possible that one or more of these players could emerge as important pieces, but projection systems don’t love the odds. The Royals could cycle through some of the roster spots occupied by this slate of names if there are any stumbles or if more appealing opportunities arise.
Fortunately for the Kansas City faithful, the one roster spot we haven’t yet touched upon is also the most exciting one. If there’s a potential building block in place, it’s the affordable and controllable middle-infield combination. Adalberto Mondesi finally took over for the clingy Alcides Escobar at short last season and flourished in a full-time role. The 23-year-old son of Raul has a long track record of out-making in the minors – though yes, he was rushed – so there’s still some variability here, but the tools are exciting and projection systems are bullish. Mondesi will turn two with the club’s best player, the recently-extended Whit Merrifield. The Royals bought some cost certainty and a bit of upside in the deal, which arguably makes sense for the player even while increasing the value of his contract rights. While the club has resisted trade interest in the past, Merrifield could still be the juicy trade bait the team desperately needs to kick the rebuild into high gear.
What to Expect in ’19
The full-rebuild Royals could again threaten for the franchise record in losses in 2019. Always the high guys on their farm-produced regulars, Dayton Moore’s staff anticipates the downturn will be a quick one. But the young major-league squad is littered with checkered minor-league pasts and the farm system is generally ranked among the bottom third leaguewide. The team would do anything to avoid reprising its pitiful stretch in the 90s and early aughts, but the current trajectory, kicked off course by a series of missteps and high-round failures in recent drafts, is veering dangerously close to the edge.
How would you grade their offseason? (Link for app users.)
diddlez
How could you give them anything other than an F? Just looking at those additions, this is going to be a historically bad team this year.
Ejemp2006
I gave them A because they are realists. On paper, they are worst in baseball and not close. Now that Perez is down, oh boy, oh boy, how will they win one?
Reality, they are free falling. No need for big signs or try trades. Just fall with grace. A.
Ski to Coors
How was Sam McWilliams the best player they could come up with in the 2nd overall pick of the rule 5 draft?
Monkey’s Uncle
I gave them a D only because they do seem to have a rebuilding plan in place that doesn’t involve signing high-priced free agents. However I wonder if I’m still being generous, because they did next to nothing in the way of signing low-priced additions. The Royals could be good in a few years, but in the meantime this is probably the worst roster in baseball, perhaps historically bad in the loss column this year.
jayfaraday
D, they did extend Whit. But it’s gunna be a rough year nonetheless
dan-9
They’ll be bad, but with that much speed, they will also be fun. I gave them a B just for expected entertainment value, and I’m sure that’s being generous. But with the Royals, I’m just an uninvested baseball fan to wants to be entertained. Of course they won’t contend, but there was virtually nothing they could have done to make them contenders this year anyway.
diddlez
Super generous. Hamilton will have an OPS around .600 and Gore can’t hit AT ALL even in the minors. What good is speed when they can’t get on base.
SocraticGadfly
Maybe Hamilton needs Yost to do like Whitey Herzog did with Ozzie … pay him for every grounder and fine him for every popup, and extend that to walks and Ks. (Ozzie didn’t need that one; he had a decent plate eye with the Padres before coming to St. Louis.)
It’s the only way I can see to break through to him, and after 5 MLB seasons, that one’s not likely to work, either.
davidcoonce74
If Herzog actually did what you said he did (I doubt he did), it would be absolutely illegal based on the CBA and Herzog would have been fired immediately.
davidcoonce74
Yeah, they seem to be hoping that, in this era of h on-base skills and power, they are going to try something entirely different, going for speed-only guys all over the roster, beside Merifield. of course. Even though Perez has seen his offense decline yearly, he’s still probably the best defensive catcher in baseball and losing him is a huge blow – he’s one of those catchers who plays 140+ games a year, like Yadi.
They’ll probably learn the hard way the old baseball adage “You can’t steal first base,” as most of the team seems quite allergic to ball four. I have no idea what has happened to ALex Gordon, but his decline has been so prolonged and so profound now, I don’t see how they can keep running him out there. He’s also 35 now, and the gold glove defense doesn’t make up for the complete loss of his bat.
The pitching is pretty meh; Keller was a nice find in the Rule 5 draft, but he’s got some red flags with regard to his BB/K rate. Duffy is already 30. The other young starters had standard ups and downs; they’ll be helped by a good defensive team behind them, but hurt by the fact that this team probably won’t put many runs on the board. I don’t think they’ll be as bad as Baltimore, and it will be entertaining to see how many bases they will steal, but this probably isn’t a team that’s going to be any better than they were in 2018.
andrewf
I gave them a generous C as they didn’t make really awful moves.
DarkSide830
the Sam McWilliams linked is the wrong one.
Nick87
Kyle Zimmer is on a Major League contract.
Jeff Todd
Fixed the later reference, thanks.
Nick87
Is Brady singer not a “consensus” top 100 prospect? Just curious. Mlb.com has him at 54 and BA has him at 71.
Jeff Todd
I didn’t write that but also didn’t catch it! Will fix it, thanks.
jvent
They need a catcher how about a Travis d’Arnaud,Vargas and $5 mil for Duffy
SocraticGadfly
They wouldn’t even shell out 1.2 million to Wieters for a minor league contract before the Cards did.
acarneglia
I’ll give them a D+/C-. The signings they made were ok, and can be flipped at the deadline
holecamels35
Funny because these signings of a team who’s tanking are better than the Pirates who are planning on contending.
revisroyalsfan
KC added 3 ML bullpen arms with Diekman, Boxberger and Storen. Zimmer’s status has always hinged on health. If he is healthy, Zimmer increases the talent on KC’s bullpen. Hamilton will add to KC’s defense which the Royals value. Wasn’t thrilled with Owings – thought they paid too much for him on KC’s budget.
mlb1225
I mean, they’re doing what a team in their position should be doing. Picking up a bunch of low cost free agents on 1 year deals to flip at the deadline.
bucketbrew35
I gave them a C. I felt their bullpen construction was solid and if everything breaks right it will be a strength for their team. If this happens they can restock the farm some at the deadline.
SpfldCynic
I’d say that’s the rational reply to their offseason
twentyfivemanroster
Reading all the negativity on Royals, I thought this was written by Steve Adams
drbnic
They did more than the Orioles that is about all I can say.
KCJ
There is an error in this article….they have Alcides Escobar listed under the “notable losses” heading.
jvent
He’s on Baltimore now
linxuhe
I think they were trying to make a joke. Keyword: notable.
Cardinalsfan4ever
Give the Royals a chance. They are a good organization. The Perez injury would hurt any team that has a top notch catcher like him.
TLB2001
Why an F? Just because they didn’t sign Bryce Harper? They did exactly what they should do, pick up a couple of cheap short-term contracts that might be flippable but not add any long term commitments. They’re going to be bad and everyone knows they’re going to be bad, should they just go throw money at veterans just so they can say they did something? Tell me what they could/should have done that they failed to do? Tell me what they did do that will prevent them from achieving something they would have otherwise? Not sexy by any means but it’s prudent.