Padres lefty Joey Lucchesi has hired CAA Sports to represent him, according to Dennis Lin of The Athletic (Twitter link). His new representation is reflected in MLBTR’s Agency Database.
The 25-year-old Lucchesi is coming off of a rather promising first campaign in the majors. He turned in 26 starts in 2018, working to a 4.08 ERA with 10.0 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9.
Lucchesi was a bit homer-prone, allowing 1.59 per nine, but otherwise did nothing but impress. He carried a 10.6% swinging-strike rate and 18.6% K%-BB% (placing him among the top thirty starters that threw at least 100 frames).
A former fourth-round pick, Lucchesi should be in line for another full season in the San Diego rotation. Indeed, as Lin notes, he’s even a candidate to toe the rubber on Opening Day. Lucchesi is still two seasons away from arbitration eligibility, though it’s certainly possible that the Friars will consider dangling an extension offer in the meantime.
This kid has some good stuff
His chuve is really nice
His biggest issue is his pitching windup. If a runner gets on second, he pitches very spazzes out and he ends up losing his location.
With a man on 2nd, batters hit .241/.290/.276/.566 against Lucchesi. If that is spazzing out he needs to keep it up.
Agree @koamalu
What?
He’ll continue to learn. That low effort throwing motion is going to really benefit him in the long run. No way to predict injuries, but he has a good solid delivery. The quirkyness and deception are going to carry him through some tough times
Highly doubt they offer an extension at any time before next offseason. At least, I hope not. With the “high ceiling” type pitchers on their way in the system, I don’t think it would be wise to lock luchessi in to an extension right now. See if he improves after this season, then consider it. With the likes of a Mackenzie Gore, Patino, Paddack, Morejon, Baez, etc…. (although a couple of those could be traded) I don’t see luchessi as much more than a #4 or #5 starter. He’s #1 in the rotation right now…. because…. well…. the Padres have no rotation right now. Luchessi relies pretty heavily on his deception which, to his credit, he has made work VERY well for him in the minors, and found moderate success in the majors. The actual “stuff” isn’t great but plays up with his deception… id just like to see how he fairs after teams now have a pretty good book on him and are somewhat accustomed to his delivery. If he improves, sure, all for a possible extension. I’m just not sure I see Luchessi being a sub 4.00 ERA guy in the long run. This will be a big year for him.
Just a suggestion, you may want to go look at the movement on his pitches. Fangraphs has the charts. His stuff is a lot better than you are making it out to be. He will eventually settle in as a #3 in the Padres rotation, but that means he is better than average. 5 guys that are better than average and your staff will put the team in a place to win a lot of games. The Padres only have one guy right now that is better than average, Lucchesi.
Link below from fangraphs, as you suggested… quotes from fangraphs article: “his stuff is generic”, “his breaking ball is average”, “fastball plane very flat”….
What they also said? Is that his delivery makes all of those things play up. Which is exactly what I said. Just a suggestion, you may want to check out the fangraphs article linked below…. the fangraphs you suggested I take into consideration.
blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/what-to-expect-fro…
Look at the charts, not an opinion piece. Especially a blog from before the 2018 season even started. Compare with other pitchers. The charts don’t lie. Opinions do.
And this guy calls me a troll…… hate hate hate, blah blah blah. But hey he’s their biggest fan!
@Swinging Friars Are you talking about @kwflanne?
yes
…. Save your strength…. here comes the conspiracy theory he tries daily
You are a sad case. How many handles do you have active in this chat??
blah blah blah
8. Spend the rest of your day identifying them all. Ready. Set. Go.
(There…. that should occupy him for a little while)
Now back to baseball discussions with people who’s opinions matter
I don’t know what all this is about, but please keep the discussion to baseball rather than board drama.
This guy just goes around yelling at everyone. If you reply to him, his go to is an insult. It’s gotten to the point where he trolls himself.
He’s called me several things over the course of this bs. Every day I hate this I hate that and your opinion doesn’t matter. I spoke up, without resorting to the same bs and became a target of his
Thank you!
Wild thought: the two of you just ignore one another rather than turning every post into some kind of Padres war.
Near as I can tell, neither of you has multiple names/accounts — so stop accusing one another of it, and enough with the tiresome drama. No one wants to read it. Enough already — move on, both in this post and in future ones.
Thank you Principal Adams. There scuffles get so childish.
I for one enjoy reading the drama…
Don Mattingly taught me to look for the nearest popcorn when these guys “fight”…
If those guys do turn out though and replace him, an extension might add a bit of value to him. Even if he is only a backend arm, a little cost certainty isn’t a bad thing.
He may not be a TOR but he definitely has the make up of a 2 or 3. That was a great start, especially considering he had very little hype on his way up. Most in here called him a place holder
Having an effective and cost controlled no. 4 is not exactly a bad thing to have, honestly. It depends on what he’s asking for, but the more success he has, the higher the price goes, so locking him up now would not be the worst idea
It would be huge if he could develop into a 2.0 – 3.0 WAR type pitcher, whether he is an innings eater or not. Anything beyond that would be icing on the cake.
Game 2 starter.
The Chris Paddack hype is so real right now. He is the living version of Ricky Vaughn. Except in a Country form, Shows up in full tuxedo with a bolo tie and a cowboy hats the day he gets the ball. It’s beyond legit.
I watched a video of him on Twitter pitching to Tatis Jr, live in BP. Over the PA system “Redneck Yacht Club” by Craig Morgan was blairing, Fernando cupped about 4 or 5 balls off the end of the bat that didn’t leave the cage area and was blown away by the Fastballs. He absolutely dominated the #2 prospect in the game when watching the tape.
Expect BIG things.
I couldn’t agree more. I’ve heard the hype all winter and was expecting a lot and I think he delivered to an extent that was more than I had even hoped. He is the REAL DEAL.
I’m going to opening day and fully expect to see a lot of Black Cowboy hats, Cop sunglasses and Cowboy boots.
Obviously with a Machado Jersey on top of all of that.
I’ll see you there on opening day!
I was very very high on Paddack last year as well, and still expect him to be a force. However, I think expectations for this season need to be tempered just a bit for now. The vast majority of his numbers come from High A ball, which we all can agree…. is a far cry from major league hitters…. and he started just 7 games above that level last year. Plus, he is still being carefully watched on his innings as he comes back from TJ. The biggest…. I wouldn’t say concern…. but area of need, is his development of that curveball. If you watch him pitch, and read any breakdowns on him, he is very heavily fastball/changeup right now. Fastball is average about 92-96, but with plus command. Changeup is a plus pitch. But that curveball is lagging prettt far behind right now. It’s just difficult to be that #1 or #2 type pitcher working almost exclusively off of fastball/changeup (unless you are up there hitting 100 with the fastball and movement). But that’s not Paddack. Still plenty of time/hope for him, I just think they’d like him to work on that breaking pitch in the lower levels for a little longer.
He is wired different. I understand the concern with the level of competition but I’ve seen him twice so far against big league hitters this spring and they look just as foolish at the plate. He corked screwed Shin-Soo Choo and made him look silly the other day. A guy who has played over a decade in the league who comes from a country where pitchers mix it up speed wise better than any. Just saying.
He has Andrew Cashner’s moxy with Jake Peavy’s ability.
Paddack needs to work on his curve. He will be on a innings limit and chances are el fuego will be the opening day starter.
If Paddack develops that curve and it becomes a true 3rd pitch, he becomes that much more nasty.
The broadcast team mentioned that if you measure the 5 day rest pattern from here until the start of the season, Lucchesi slates 03/29 which is game 2.
Out of the current starters in the camp, the one who’s work load which lines up exactly with 5 days rest before Opening Day is …
Paddack.
Bookmark this, he is pitching on Opening Day and he will do well.
They can get around a day of rest quite easy. Luchessi deserves to be the opening day pitcher
Bleacher….you’re really coming through for us. Are you in Peoria? Must be good times out there this year
I think there is still plenty of time for Green to make adjustments for whatever pitcher he wants on opening day to line up. I like that there isn’t a consensus top guy… It’s exciting to have that kind of competition with all these young arms
Good to be a fan again
Why because he survived his freshman season?
That doesn’t Deserve anything but a golf clap.
Why would they start the clock on paddack to have him pitch opening day? The guy threw 90 innings last year so what are you thinking this year 140-150 max? I don’t see anyway preller wants this guy on his opening day team. Of course he started Lucchesi clock early but I’d like to think with a real top prospect he’d think differently. paddack pitching opening day is a fairy tale.
Lucchesi didn’t just survive his rookie season, he performed above league average. Go take a look at how many other rookies did that last season. There were just 3 in the NL that had 20+ starts. Pretty impressive.
Paddack’s issue is the same one that Lucchesi, Mitchell, and Lamet face. He only has two MLB quality pitches. He needs to develop a solid breaking ball.
Imagine if they would’ve got to keep Castillo on top of Paddack and Naylor for Cashner. Oh man
Castillo is a solid back of the rotation starter.
Right? And Cosart/Capps roll of the dice didn’t work out. Naylor + Castillo would have been soooo good.
Oh my mistake I thought Paddack was a part of the Cashner deal but point stands. Just add Rodney on top of Cashner I guess.
God I hate when people say that Paddack was in the Cashner trade!
Having watched Lucchesi pitch several times at Petco, there’s no doubt in my mind that he will have a long, solid career as a major league pitcher. I don’t think he will ever rise to the caliber of an ace or even a #2 starter, but I think he will be a very consistent asset.
I’m thinking a year in year out average of 150+ innings, sub 4.00 ERA and win 10-15 games.
Well said, when the Padres are competing he is likely a #4 or #5 or might even end up in the pen in some fashion.
If the organization had it their way, based off how they’ve spent and drafted, their rotation come 2021 should look like:
1. Gore (#1 LHP prospect in game)
2. Morejon ($11 million signing bonus)
3. Paddack
4. Patino
5. Espinoza – It wasn’t too long ago when Red Sox fans were up in arms about losing him for Pomeranz. Pedro Martinez once pointing him out at Red Sox camp saying he was a mini version of him helped. But don’t forget about him.
^^^ very much agree with that rotation. My above comment wasn’t to dig on Luchessi…. just think that when those above mentioned names arrive, he isn’t necessarily in that caliber. I could see him being decent (not great) trade bait, or an excellent long relief role in the bullpen
Then you mix in Logan Allen, MIchael Baez, Ryan Weathers, Cal Quantrill and you got about 9-10 guys that have the potential to be a very successful big league pitcher. Even with a 50% success rate they should still be in great shape!
@Kwflanne
No, yeah I got you. But honestly if this article was about Lauer I would feel the same way. They are kind of two peas in pod in terms of value. Neither really blows you away, #4’s and #5’s on good teams.
It’s not a knock on them, it’s just that the Lava is going to start to hitting their toes here soon. It’s just the reality of it, some serious talent is coming down the pipeline soon.
That’s not even mentioning the layer behind that which is:
Reggie Lawson
Pedro Avila
Osvaldo Hernandez
Nick Marcevious
Hansel Rodriguez
Mason Thompson
Dylan Coleman
Etc.
Hot Lava
Margevicious is the real deal. All the rest are relievers at best in the majors.
@KWflanne Pitching prospects in the Top 100 stick as a starter in the majors about 20% of the time. 1 of those 5 will stick. One. Lucchesi has proven he can do it at the major league level. Prospects will be traded, not proven starters.
1 in 5 of those you are calling hot lava will stick in the majors as a starter. About 20% of those that are Top 100 prospects. Who are the 2 of the Padres top 10 pitching prospects do you think will stick?
Here is the list
Gore
Paddack
Patino
Morejon
Baez
Allen
Weathers
Quantrill
Espinoza
Nix
You can throw Nix out. He won’t stick as a starter. So pick two of the others.
They stick at a 20% rate for those that are in the Top 100. Since only 7 are in the top 100 let’s be generous and pick 2 of those 9-10 that will stick in the majors. Who are your two?
So, a couple of issues there. There isn’t 5 (as you just mentioned) in the top 100, there are 7. Second, that is not even including the likes of former top 100 prospects like Espinoza and Quantrill. Third, luchessi having one season of an ERA over 4.00 does not mean he has proven he can do it at the major league level. Hell, one season of a 2.50 era doesn’t prove you can do it at the major league level. You need more than one season of a sample size, and especially when that season isn’t anything spectacular, like Luchessi’s rookie season. He is not a proven starter, anymore than lauer is a proven starter.
Your math is misguided here sir. It’s not 20% of PADRES pitching prospects, it’s 20% of ALL pitching prospects in that prospect list. Not 20% of each individual team. Example, if our #5 rated pitcher is higher rated than the Giants #1 rated pitching prospect…. that doesn’t mean the giant prospect makes it because of the 20% rule. Understand?
I expect big things from Gore, Paddack, Morejon, & Baez.
If we go out and sign someone next year. That guy, Richards, Luchessi/Lauer….. That only leaves room for 2 more. Its a huge bonus that these arms are all in different age groups, they should come up year after year pushing out the current 4 & 5. After just a year or two of this that rotation could be nasty
The rest of the talent heads for the pen or gets traded. The future looks good!
Pitching prospects in the Top 100 stick as a starter about 20% of the time?
That is simply not true. Especially those in the Top 50. Just an arbitrary check. Look at 2012. Among the Top 100 were the following pitchers: 2. Dylan Bundy, 4. Tajuan Walker, 5. Trevor Bauer, 6. Zach Wheeler, 7. Garrit Cole, 8. Danny Hultzen, 9. Tyler Skaggs, 15. Jameson Tallion, 18. Archie Bradley, 19. Shelby Miller, 22. Jose Fernandez, 24. Julio Teheran, 26. Carlos Martinez, 30. Jake Odorizzi, 37. Matt Barnes, 38. Aaron Sanchez, 42. Zach Lee, 43. Martin Perez, 50. Alex Meyer, 54. Max Fried, 56. Kevin Gausman, 57. Tony Cingrani, 60. Trevor Rosenthal, 61. Kyle Zimmer, 62. Taylor Guerreri, 65. Luis Heredia, 71. Dan C0rcino, 73. Dan Straily, 75. Jessie Biddle,, 81. Chris Archer, 83. Noah Syndergaard, 84. Tyler Thornberg, 85. Kyle Crick, 88. Cody Buckley, 90. AJ Cole, 91. Daniel Norris, 95. Yordano Ventura, 96. Wily Peralta, 97. Jeruys Familia.
That’s 39 pitchers. Of those, 22 are or have been starters in MLB. Fernandez and Ventura are deceased.
spack….. doing the research myself and everyone else is too lazy to do haha thanks for the info!
Question, been looking for your thoughts on the catching situation. What do you think they do? Carry Mejía/hedges to start the year? Split time 50/50? Or something else
That research was for 2012 alone. Go to 2013 and you’ll find an even greater percentage of Top 100 pitchers now starting (or have started).
Anyway, I get the feeling Mejia will start in the minors and Chris Stewart will be the No. 2. Don’t necessarily agree with that — I think Mejia has nothing to prove at Triple A — but that’s what they’re likely to do.
Agreed. I’d rather have him in AAA though than a split with hedges. While I agree, he has no further development (offensively, at least) needed there… I don’t like the way the management has handled timeshares all over the diamond. So I’d rather see Mejía play consistently than on a day, off two, on one, off one, etc. I understand catchers get more rest days at the position than other spots, but I’d still like to see every 2 out of a 3 game series go to Mejía, or 3 out of 4, etc. I just don’t think that’s how they would handle it, but I wish they would. So ultimately, yeah, he will likely be in AAA. They needed to move hedges in the offseason. Or Mejía. We’ve had our hedges defense vs Mejía offense debates already. Be great to keep both of they made one a CLEAR starter, and the other just giving rest days. But I don’t think that’s how they would go about it.
Anyways, hope everything is well spack! We got into discussions daily on the Padres chat board. I was kflan1025. Or Kflan66. I can’t remember. Had to change it a few times because it kept saying my name was just “commenterxxxxxxxx” until I finally got it figured out. That’s a serious bummer that they stopped allowing those discussion threads. While there was still disagreement on there, it was at least about baseball…. this page seems to have a flare for drama and trolls. Which I, admittedly, have difficulty just ignoring haha.
Bleacherbum listed 5 starters. Of those 5, eventually one will make it as an average MLB starter.
Lucchesi has shown he can pitch at a better than average level the major league level already. None of the others have. They are still in the 1 in 5 category. He no longer is.
1 in 5 prospects that are in the top 100 stick as average or better starters in the majors. If the Padres have 7 plus Espinoza and Quantrill, they still will only have a maximum of 2 that make it eventually as average or better starters.
6 of those 9, Gore, Morejon, Patino, Baez, Espinoza, and Weathers are a minimum of 2 seasons away from getting even a cup of coffee in the majors. Half of those 6 are 3+ seasons away.
3 will be ready or close to ready at some point in the 2019 season, Paddack, Allen, and Quantrill. If the Padres are incredibly lucky one of those 3 will stick as an MLB average starter. So pick one.
Then in 2 seasons, they may have one more that sticks.
In 3 seasons from now, they may have one more stick.
You can try to argue the point all you want. The odds are clear. Love to see them beat the odds, but those are the odds.
@csspackler What I said is that 20% of top 100 starting pitching prospects stick in the majors as an average or above starter.
Go back and take the very people you mentioned. 8 of them have an average or above ERA for their career. 7 have an average or above WAR. 8 of 39 is 20.5%.
@csspackler Now do that same research for 2000-2016. Like 2012, the overall number of top 100 pitching prospects that stuck in the majors and performed at an average or better pace for their careers to date is about 20%. It varies a point or 2 per season but in the end its about 20%.
I am not concerned with how many just made it to the majors. From 2000-2015 nearly 70% at least got to the majors as either a starter or a reliever was about 70%. Lots of pitchers make it to the show. Very few stay in the majors and are average or better.
But that’s not what you originally said.
Regardless, what do you consider an average or above average ERA? Or WAR?
But you aren’t understanding something… that statistic is based on the top 100 prospects for all teams. That 20% mark of the prospects of all teams. Not each individual team. See, the Padres could very well have 50% of their pitching prospects work out, while another team has 5% workout, etc etc. And that is a probable case, considering some teams have only 1-2 prospects in the top 100…. so it isn’t 20% of Padres pitching prospects. It’s 20% of all prospects. That’s the point of having a good farm system, the Padres could conceivably have a 30-40% success rate with the depth of talent they have, while other teams have only 5-10% in their poor farm systems. The TOTAL averages to that 20%. Not 20% of each team.
Ouch. Don’t try to project future rotations off prospects. The odds are that one of those 5 will be an average major league starter. If the Padres are really lucky, maybe 2 make the rotation at all.
Nitpicking, but Gore is ranked 2nd among LHP. 15th overall.
m.mlb.com/prospects/2019/?list=lhp
Yeah — for every can’t miss prospect that makes it, like Charles Nagy or Jose Rijo or Felix Hernandez, there are three or four that don’t live up to the hype (Jeff Juden, Todd Van Poppel, Ben McDonald, Kyle Drabek, David Clyde) and another couple that don’t make it at all (Brien Taylor, Mark Appel, Chris Gruler, etc.).
Where, exactly, does this 20% statistic come from?
A cursory look at the top 50 of 2011 prospect rankings, reveals, by my count, that something like 12/25 of the pitching prospects “Stuck” as starters–not counting guys like Betances or Vizcaino who became difference making relievers, and generously counting a guy like Martin Perez, who’s made over 120 starts in the bigs, as “misses”.
Everyone should realize that the concept of TINSTAAPP is an overcorrection.
However, it’s readily apparent that people will contort nearly ANY opinion into doubting the Padres legitimacy. People hate change, so this is understandable, but this team will have plenty of pitching within the calendar year.
I do think the Padres have enough pitching prospects to where even if this mythical 20% rule is true, they will be just fine, especially since we know some of their prospects will be dangled for proven talent. Padres fans should be incredibly excited.
Top 100. Average or better starters. Reread my posts.
@dylanchase I was talking about top 100 prospects that stuck in the majors as an average or above starter. Not that got to the majors. Around 70% of top 100 pitching prospects have done that. Not that became relievers. Pitchers that became a #1-#3 starter and put up and ERA and WAR that is average or above.
Padres need to end the Perdomo, Mitchell, Erlin experiments Lucchessi, Lauer, Paddack, Quantril, Nix and Allen should be the rotation this year. You need to see the kids pitch to know if you need to go looking for an ace next winter. 6 man rotation to not put a huge workload on the young arms and see where things fall.
Padres need to move Yates, Stammen, Stock, Warren, Loup soon as they can to get a good look at the young pen arms.
I think I’d give Erlin one more go to see what he can do. The other two should be just fodder though until their kids come up.
Perdomo is probably a reliever at this point. A swing man. Mitchell’s fastball velocity has been 96-98 in spring training with great command. The problem is that so far they have asked him to throw a breaking ball in more than half his pitches. That is not a recipe for success for a guy that lives and dies high in the zone. Erlin is the ultimate swing man. Let him do what he is good at. Paddack, Quantrill, and Allen should be in the minors to start the year. Allen is the only one that will be able to take the ball every fifth day. Paddack will be under an innings limit of 140 or so. No reason to bring him up in March. Quantrill needs to relearn what got him that 1st round pick. He used to have the velocity and movement on that FB that made him so good. He lost it the last 2 seasons. Maybe he can get that back and be called up in June. Nix is not a good pitcher. He does not get enough swing and misses to ever be more than a spot starter. A guy that gets called up and sent down every time there is an injury.
Why would the Padres move any of the bullpen arms? They are trying to win now, not in 3-4 years. Yates as a closer was one of the top 5 in baseball. Stammen is a solid veteran. Stock is throwing 100 in spring training. Warren is another solid veteran. Loup was signed to a minor league deal. Of those guys, only Stammen might be traded and only if he is part of a trade for a starter to top the rotation.
Agree with most of that. I see no reason to start Paddack in the majors, as he still has some developing to do (especially with his breaking ball). I wouldn’t mind seeing Quantrill get that 5th spot. Coincidentally, he had better numbers in AAA than he had at AA. Who knows, maybe he’s one of those guys that overperforms the expectations. It happens. I’d rather see Quantrill there than any of Erlin, Mitchell, or Perdomo
That’s a lot of trade bait!
The pen becomes expendable when you factor in two things: All this talent needs to play, if there isn’t room in the rotation they’ll get sent to the pen; Balsley – this guy gets it
How is Erlin an experiment? He shouldn’t be mentioned with those other guys. He’s a former top 50 prospect who has a BB/9 under 2.0 for his major league career. An FIP of about 3.50. He is finally healthy and ready to deliver, and you want to dump him?
They are only looking at his first half last season.. He came on strong at the end of the year
I also think the hype surrounding the kids coming up has a bit to do with it
The Padres need to keep Erlin in the pen. If Strahm is in the rotation Erlin should slide into his role in the bullpen.
Lawson will be the piece imo that goes to Toronto for Stroman.
I think as spring training nears an end those rumors will start to heat up a little more. The Padres desperately need an arm that has pitched the course of a big league season before. Going into the season with all the babies in the rotation is scary.
The offense will produce now that Manny anchors that until and makes everybody else better.
They need that in the rotation.
Lawson and who? Or are you saying Lawson straight up for stroman? That is beyond unlikely. Stroman will cost a lot more than just Lawson.
It would have to be Lawson as the starting point obviously. No way it would cost just him.
I could see something like:
Marcus Stroman to San Diego
Reggie Lawson and Hudson Potts
(Guerrero is a DH long term)
I’d love if that were the case. I just have a hard time imagining Toronto accepting anything outside of a deal centered around a top 10 pitcher. Maybe a Ryan weathers… possibly even a Quantrill. But Lawson might be just outside that tier
CAA Sports. It’s in the game.
Over 40 comments on a pitcher signing with an agent. Wow. Are Padres fans excited about this season or what?
yup
Yup!
Joey Lucchesi is a rockstar
Damn , are Padre fans more annoying or more delusional?
Are those the only two options?
Interesting article from baseball America, outlining the top 10 prospects hopeful to have healthy seasons. Rated #2 was Anderson Espinoza, who has now missed two seasons after failed rehab attempts led to a delayed tommy John surgery. Also on the list was Mackenzie Gore. While that potential is undeniable, he was extremely limited, shelved twice, and eventually shutdown for the season due to blister issues. The weird thing is…. blister issues worry me a little more than TJ surgery. Obviously they aren’t as severe and don’t take as long to rehab…. but what they have been known to do, is reoccur. A lot. Hopefully this was just a one season thing, I don’t know if any history with gore in high school having blister issues… but that is one of those things, like hamstrings, that tend to linger and pop back up from time to time. Hopefully it’s all in the past now!