We’ll have 2019 Major League Baseball about two weeks from now, perhaps with Oakland’s Mike Fiers throwing the season’s first pitch to Seattle’s Mallex Smith in Tokyo. Though Dallas Keuchel, Craig Kimbrel, and others remain unsigned, I’m going to begin our monthly look ahead at the 2019-20 MLB free agent class. These players are on track to become free agents after the 2019 season.
As you can see in MLBTR’s Extension Tracker, we had three notable would-be free agents come off the board in February: Nolan Arenado, Miles Mikolas, and Aaron Hicks. I feel that Arenado and Mikolas did about as well as they would have in free agency, while it’s possible Hicks’ deal reflects some trepidation toward the backwards trend in dollars per WAR that teams have instituted the last two winters. There’s a good chance some of the projected free agents listed here will also forgo the open market if a reasonable contract offer is presented. As always, these players are ranked by my estimate of their 2019-20 open market earning power.
1. Xander Bogaerts. I didn’t begin this exercise expecting Bogaerts to top the list, but if he manages another five win season as Boston’s shortstop, his youth could result in the winter’s longest contract. Bogaerts, a client of the Boras Corporation, won’t turn 27 until October. He’s gone year-to-year throughout his career after signing out of Aruba for $410K in 2009. Bogaerts has now banked over $25MM in his career. He’s coming off his finest season yet, posting a 133 wRC+ that was second only to Manny Machado among qualified shortstops. Bogaerts’ defense has long rated as a plus. While I don’t expect Bogaerts to approach the $300MM contract Machado received, I do think he’ll join the $200MM club with a strong 2019 season.
2. Chris Sale. Bogaerts’ teammate Chris Sale has placed top six in the AL Cy Young voting for the last seven years. The lefty joined the Red Sox in a December 2016 blockbuster trade with the White Sox. Sale’s dominance has continued in Boston, though he was limited to 158 regular season innings in 2018 due to two DL stints for shoulder inflammation. Sale’s earning power in free agency will depend on his health this season. Six years ago, Sale signed a contract extension with the White Sox that has provided tremendous surplus value to both of his clubs. While it had been standard practice for top free agent starters to be paid through age 36 – see Jon Lester, Max Scherzer, David Price, and Yu Darvish (and Zack Greinke, who was paid through 37), the old way of doing things in free agency may no longer apply. So Sale, 30 this month, will likely seek a six-year contract, though he could have trouble getting there unless one team gets irrational or he accepts a reduced average annual value to max out the guarantee. In the best case, Sale could inch his way past Greinke’s six-year, $206.5MM deal, since Sale will be more than 17 months younger than Greinke was when he reached his historic pact.
3. Gerrit Cole. Cole, another Boras client, was drafted by the Yankees out of high school in the first round in 2008. Cole’s signability changed after the draft, and his family requested that the Yankees not even make an offer. After three years at UCLA, Cole was drafted first overall by the Pirates. He was generally solid for the Pirates, including one great season in 2015, before they traded him to the Astros in January 2018. Cole posted the best season of his career in his first season as an Astro. Including his record draft bonus, Cole has earned over $33MM in his MLB career on the year-to-year plan. With another comparable campaign, he’ll be fishing for the seven-year deal signed by Price, Scherzer, and Stephen Strasburg. This would only take Cole through his age 35 season – a reasonable length even in this day and age. Price’s seven-year, $217MM deal will be four years old when Cole reaches free agency. My guess is that Cole will fall short of that level but will still sign one of the five largest pitching contracts in baseball history.
4. Anthony Rendon. The Nationals let Harper defect to the Phillies on a record $330MM contract, but that might pave the way for a deal with yet another Boras client, Rendon. Rendon has quietly amassed 13 WAR over the last two seasons, sixth in all of baseball for position players. The Nationals’ third baseman combines stellar defense with a 140 wRC+ bat, and the result is that he’s every bit as valuable as Harper or Machado right now. Rendon turns 29 in June, and he’s amassed about $47MM already in his MLB career. It’s been rare lately that any top position player gets paid past age 35, as Machado and Eric Hosmer did, and many such as Nolan Arenado, Jose Altuve, J.D. Martinez, Justin Upton, and Yoenis Cespedes were only paid through 34. We’ll put Harper aside, as only drastically reducing his average annual value allowed for him to be paid through age 38. This is my way of saying I think Rendon is looking at a six-year deal in the best case. Back in January, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote that Rendon was seeking a contract comparable to Altuve, in his extension talks with the Nationals. That deal was essentially $151MM over five years, though things have gotten worse for free agents in the year since then. Also since then was Arenado’s seven-year, $234MM extension with the Rockies, notable mainly for its $33.4MM AAV. Rendon would certainly be within his rights to seek $30-33MM per year in his ongoing extension talks with the Nationals, which may continue into the season.
5. Paul Goldschmidt. Goldschmidt starred for the Diamondbacks for eight years until last December’s trade to St. Louis. Goldy inked what became a club-friendly six-year contract back in 2013. So on the one hand, the slugging first baseman has banked $45MM in his MLB career. On the other hand, he’ll turn 32 in advance of his next contract. These days, that probably caps him at a four-year deal unless he takes a light AAV. The Cardinals clearly would like to make Goldschmidt, a client of Excel Sports Management, more than a rental.
6. Zack Wheeler. Wheeler, 29 in May, posted the best season of his career in 2018. The righty was drafted sixth overall out of high school by the Giants in 2009 and was traded to the Mets for Carlos Beltran in 2011. He made his MLB debut in 2013 and did solid work before going down for March 2015 Tommy John surgery. Wheeler ended up going two and a half years between MLB starts, nearly getting traded to Milwaukee in the interim. That Wheeler failed to return to the Mets in 2016 served as a reminder that Tommy John recovery is not always seamless. Wheeler’s 2017 season was abbreviated due to a stress fracture in his arm, and he actually began the 2018 season in the minors. Wheeler, one of the hardest-throwing starting pitchers in the game, just kept getting better in the 2018 season. He finished with a 2.06 ERA in his final 15 starts. An encore performance could make Wheeler a sleeper Cy Young candidate, but it’s all about stringing together a second consecutive healthy season for the first time in his career. His ceiling would likely be a five-year deal taking him through age 34, the age through which Miles Mikolas, Jordan Zimmermann, Jake Arrieta, and Patrick Corbin were signed. Both Wheeler and Chris Sale are represented by Jet Sports Management.
7. J.D. Martinez. Martinez, 32 in August, has been the second-best hitter in baseball over the last two seasons by measure of wRC+. Though he’s able to play the outfield, he’s best-served as a designated hitter. Martinez signed a five-year, $110MM deal with the Red Sox in late February last year, but the Boras client has the chance to opt out of the 2019 or 2020 seasons. Given the way Martinez has been hitting, it stands to reason that even in this free agent climate, he will stand a good chance at topping the three years and $62.5MM he’ll have remaining on his contract after 2019. Since he’d probably only be looking at a four-year deal this time around, it’s possible the Red Sox could simply tack on one more year to his current deal.
8. Didi Gregorius. Gregorius, 29, was signed by the Reds out of Curacao for $50K back in 2007. A pair of three-team trades eventually led him to the Yankees’ shortstop job in 2015, with the near-impossible task of succeeding Derek Jeter. Gregorius’ bat steadily improved over his four seasons with the Yankees. Combined with strong defense, he’s totaled 8.7 WAR over the past two seasons – on par with Machado and Bogaerts. However, Gregorius went down for Tommy John surgery in October. He could return anywhere from June to August, complicating his free agency picture. Both Gregorius and the Yankees seem open to an extension, and the club did just prevent Aaron Hicks from exploring free agency by giving him a seven-year, $70MM deal. Like Goldschmidt, Gregorius is represented by Excel Sports Management.
9. Justin Verlander. Verlander, 36, finished second in the AL Cy Young voting last year, in a dominant season that was every bit as good as his Cy/MVP 2011 campaign for the Tigers. He’s a likely Hall of Famer and is one of the game’s best starting pitchers currently. When it comes to the topic of Verlander’s free agency, it’s difficult to ignore his age. I have to think it caps him at a three-year deal, albeit with a premium AAV in the $30MM range. The Astros have difficult decisions on the horizon regarding their pair of aces. Verlander is represented by ISE Baseball.
10. Madison Bumgarner. Like Verlander, Bumgarner was an ace for an extended period of time. But with the Giants’ lefty, it remains to be seen what his second act will look like. An April 2017 dirt bike accident caused injuries to Bumgarner’s ribs and shoulder, limiting him to 17 starts that year. Then in March of last year, the pitcher’s left hand was fractured during a Spring Training game, delaying his season debut until June. Upon his return, he wasn’t quite the Bumgarner of old, with his strikeout and walk rates going in the wrong direction. Still, Bumgarner doesn’t turn 30 until August, and by then we should know whether his 2018 season was a blip on the radar or the start of a trend. His contract, which will be negotiated by The Legacy Agency, will depend on that question.
Honorable mentions: Marcell Ozuna, Yasiel Puig, Rick Porcello, Nick Castellanos, Josh Donaldson, Yasmani Grandal, Khris Davis, Scooter Gennett
Note: I’m currently operating under the assumption that club options for Corey Kluber, Anthony Rizzo, Jose Quintana, Chris Archer, Starling Marte, and Matt Carpenter will be exercised after the season, and that Stephen Strasburg and Yu Darvish will not opt out of their contracts.
owners are already colluding and preparing right now on how to drive market down next year. Which players they want to head to small market teams etc. Which players they don’t want to get to 10 year tenure etc.
Comments like these are why we need the dislike button back.
1. It’s a business not a charity. Owners owe the players nothing. Like any business you give out deals that you think will yield the best investment. 10 year deals, 400 500 million dollars arent wise investments as a lot can happen in 10 years and its guaranteed money. I’m sure the Mets wish they had the Bobby bonilla contract back.
2. With younger cheaper options and platoon advantage driving baseball operations strategies its pretty far fetched to say collusion is afoot. Why pay a guy like Harper 330 million for 10 years when a platoon OF will give you roughly equal production and cost anywhere from 20-30 mill.
Yep, I won’t say there is zero collusion, but analytics minded GMs have caught up with Scott Boras.
And hëlls yes on the dislike button.
I believe there is a unspoken collusion or agreement that there is only so much your going to pay for a players services
How dare you make a pragmatic comment such as the one you made! I mean, I liked your retort so much that I thought about creating multiple sock puppet accounts so as I could like it that much more!
Well said Sir…
I agree, lets have both a dislike button and a like button.
For certain articles where you don’t want comments to be disliked, just take it away.
There has to be a platform that enables you to have like/dislike button for some posts, but disable the dislike for some posts. For example, what they do for posts they dont want comments on, have articles you don’t want to have dislike button.
This post for example would have like/dislike comments enabled, other articles such as the Giants CEO or family stuff could just have a like button.
Downvoting is gone for good!
The old way they did was fine. Like dislike see who voted. When they made likes dislikes anonymous they let trolls seep in.
This would be fine as part of that … see who voted up, or down.
Or, do what Disqus does … both “up” and “down” but numbers only show for the ups.
That said, most social media, trying to be part of Poppy Bush’s thousand points of kinder, gentler light has gone that way.
It’s still büllshit, and comments that are büllshit are still büllshit.
Is there a place to rate MLBTR on Yelp or something?
And there was much rejoicing in the Kingdom….
Make MLBTR wholesome again!
MMWA!
Tim, know your decision was made after much thought and cost-benefit analysis.
I probably benefitted most from dv removal.
But to keep the UV and remove DV you prob had to re-wrote entire code from scratch? Anyway, i know decisions like this aren’t made lightly, — or appllied easily, but I sincerely hope you’re right.
Change sucks, Tim. Remember how much people hated move from desktop to mobil site? I used to go on desktop version on my phone, now I can’t leave mobile version of ur site. Moral of story? Pple will get used to it.
If you change your mind and re-add dv, I pray you find a way to make # dv not display, while displaying the # likes. Best of both worlds.
(Like YouTube, Disqus… etc)
I want a down vote option back. I like for collecting!
Who cares about everyone knowing whether they liked or disliked something in the first place!?!
If u have an opinion, but don’t have a thoughtful response to someone’s comment, the world will keep spinning
I care. And most people who need down voting need to know they’re wrong. Now I have to type out and tell them they’re wrong and can’t down vote them it’s ruined the site really
But why? Did we ever get a good reason for the downvote going away?
“Is there a place to rate MLBTR on Yelp or something?”
Or you could, you know, just stop being a ninny who complains about a free website, Gadfly
Thank you Tim and the rest who made the decision.
That’s part of the problem.
The point of discussion is to say your piece. Not just hit a thumbs down button.
If you’re so certain you’re right and it’s a big enough issue you fee you need to educate the other party, a downvote solves nothing.
However intelligently describing your thoughts could prove quite beneficial
Yes, I’m glad downvoting is gone, and I’m puzzled by the people who even noticed how much they were “downvoted,” let alone wrote screeds about it. Nobody seriously cares; these are ephemeral posts on a website that updates 20+ times every day. It was always baffling to me why posters really cared about “downvotes,” especially when there isn’t any way to limit the number of accounts anyone can have. It’s a silly thing to care about, let alone make a big deal over. But I remember threads that were dozens of posts long complaining about “downvotes” and it was so tiring and petty. I’d rather have conversation about baseball.
SocraticGadfly…..
You should be happy they don’t enforce all of the commenting policy like self-promotion……. “Spam-type links or self-promotion. Please submit to our weekly Baseball Blogs Weigh In feature if you have a website or blog.”
On a lesser note…..”Inappropriate language, including swearing and related censor bypass attempts,”
Be happy MLBTR is here and free
Comments like this one are why we don’t need the dislike button back.
Instead of a mindless thumbs down, it’s a cogent response explaining a different argument.
Much better.
This right here forwhomjoshbelltolls. Dislikes are so lazy. This isn’t the roman Colosseum. If you disagree with something, explain why. If you agree with something and have something to add, comment with your addition. If you agree with something and have nothing to add then just “like” it.
Use logic and reasoning to combat opposing views. It isn’t that hard and it’s a good skill to have. Giving a thumbs down isn’t
Analytics are the collusion. They assign value to stats as everybody knows.
The players agreed upon a deal which effectively gave a salary cap to big spending teams. No longer could these teams just blow past the luxury tax and just pay up to double. They have to give up draft picks now. Teams like draft picks.
In the next labor agreement I expect players to fight for a scrap to the arbitration system in favor of restricted free agency after year 4. Doubt they could get year 3 but would settle for year 4 in negotiations. Too many players are getting to free agency after 30 and this would solve that.
I agree with your second and third grafs while rejecting the first.
We need to can arbitration. Then, go to free agency “tiers” based on service time, similar to the NBA or something, perhaps.
Yeah restricted free agency works so well in the NHL. Man lost count of how many offer sheets were giving out innthe last 5 years it might be 1 or 0.
Do people even think before they post suggestions from other sports. Yeah let’s bring this system over that doesn’t work in another sport.
Here’s a more radical idea: get rid of the draft. All high school seniors and all players after their junior year of college are free agents, free to sign with the highest bidder. Arbitration after the first season of MLB service time; pay the players what they are worth while they are still worth it, rather than exploiting them during the “team-controlled” years and then underpaying them later.. Teams would hate it, of course, and it’s wishful thinking, but this kind of system would at least help minor leaguers out – they’re paid less than minimum wage as the system is currently constructed – and it would mirror the actual job market, in which you graduate from college (or high school) and get to shop your services to the highest bidder.
His .952 OPS is 6th overall over the last four years. (And it’s only that low because he played a year w a bum wrist.) Where is this magical platoon player?
You can’t possibly mean this. Owners owe the players everything.
If all the good players left then average players become the best it doesn’t matter who the players are then. Meaning the sport is the most important not the players.
While you make some good points “pitches love velocity”, I don’t think the whole “it’s a business not a charity” is a very good argument. Not to get all smart on you, but if that was the case then why do we have a minimum wage, a 40 hour work week, harassment laws, fair hiring practices, etc? Yeah, it is a business, but there are also expectations that we should ALL have towards any business. It isn’t charity to expect business owners to “play fairly.”
That whole “owners owe the players nothing” was the same argument that Curt Flood ended his playing career and life fighting against. Show a little respect. At one point players had literally no rights and no agency of any kind. So, maybe you’d like slavery to come back? You know, owners owe us peasants nothing. Right?
And I don’t understand the whole 400 million and 500 million dollar argument. you are making. There are zero, and never have been, any 400 million and 500 million dollar contracts. So I fail to see the point.
Down vote all the player fan boys.
The real problem is that many veteran players are replaceable, by younger and cheaper players. Analytics matter only secondarily: it simply allows management to identify cheaper but effective replacements, whether among younger players or wherever.
I think there really is only one solution to the problem: demand better pay for younger players, not just prospects, but minor leaguers (who constitute many of the “wherever.”) Make the replacements less cheap and veterans will get better deals, in the long run at least.
The real challenge, as I see it, is that the veterans who dominate MLBPA are way myopic. They think they can get what they want by selling the prospects and minor leaguers (who lack representation after all) short in return for what look like short term concessions to them. Well, they should realize that they hang together or they hang separately.
While that is true….it’s the big stars that are getting screwed. The top tier FA’s will eventually get paid regardless. It’s the lower-mid tier players that are getting screwed.
They will pay for talent. The risk of long term deals have mostly shown not to favor the teams. Both top two players listed I love but Boegarts has only had one super year, 2018. Hopefully he doesn’t drop back but $200m? Bye. Sale has never proven to be a dependable starter in September and October.
The Cards have already discussed something in the range of $5/150 for Goldy if need be. Or even six with options, contra Mr. Dierkes. See slide 3 in this slide show, for example. (Oh, I’m comfortable with 5/$150 myself Or 6/$160 or something.) stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/quick-hi…
You’ve got nothing more than a Rick Hummel opinion on that slideshow. If 5/150 were offered, Goldschmidt would be a fool to turn it down.
I should have put the word “rumored” in front, you’re right. That said, Goold said something somewhat similar elsewhere. Not that the PD boys are always right, but … the team hasn’t shot that idea down. So, it may be speculation, but I think it’s … reasonable speculation.
That said … nobody said it was **offered** yet, Tim! And, the Birds have said they ‘re playing on Goldy’s timeframe as for when he wants to talk or not. So, any cards (haha!) they have will be kept close to the vest at this time.
How about waiting and seeing how Goldschmidt does in a pitcher’s park compared to a hitter’s park before Mo throws the bank and FULL NTC at him. Insane to discuss a deal when he hasn’t played one game yet in a Cards uniform.
I love that this comment was made just days after two of the largest contracts in MLB history were signed.
Everyone coming to the same logical conclusion, does not equal collusion.
Where are this years free agent pick leaderboards? Im pretty sure Ive got tgem all correct.
You have not at most you have 12
Owners met in basement of Dave and Busters. They agree San Diego is designate for bad contracts. Then, even after big spends, and still lose, owners point at Padre example that big spend don’t equal wins.
“Owners meet in the basement of Dave and Buster’s” is awesome
ok Donald
Would like my braves to bring wheeler home
To go where? more talent in the pipeline and he’s not a #1 (which they need) and will just take up space for a deserving rookie.
Will u relax. I said I would like to see it. Like daydreaming. He’d fit just fine. But I get he’s not a need or anything
lol…I agree
I dont know why I’m even bothering reading this list. Braves won’t sign a single one
Come now homer, I know it seems that way, but let’s not forget that they signed one of the top 10 this year(by most rankings), and two of the top 40.
Man, all this hate on the Braves when they are actually making solid decisions for once. You know, no BJ/Melvin/”BJ again” signings.
I would love to see them sign one of the K’s remaining, but lets face it, they will both cost a draft pick and both want too many years and too much money. If they were to take 2-3 years so they would be off the books when we start having Arb numbers going way up on our young guys, then possibly, but giving up first rounders impacts future flexibility almost as much as big dollar contracts.
hmm, Rendon 4th, interesting. i like Xander 1st, and think he is highly overlooked among the game’s better players. The Red Sox would be smartest to extend him before this season.
While Boegart is a solid hitter, I see most teams looking at him at a position other than SS, where he is lacking defensively. This could adversely effect his demand, if he is not open to moving. I would drop him to 4th, with Sale, Cole and Rendon getting more.
2018 2019 FA class was considered best in history, but honestly after all is said and done, 2019-20 FA class actually seems stronger.
Some players didn’t make it to free agency this season for one reason or another . Kershaw and Jose Fernandez are two examples that come to mind.
True, but there didn’t seem like much depth in this FA class. If you didn’t spend on Harper as a COF, you’ve got Michael Brantley, AJ Pollack? And even with Jose Fernandez/Kershaw as free agents, the drop-off from them to Patrick Corbin and Dallas Keuchel is so vast. Aside from a lack of catcher depth and a lack of closing options, next year’s class has about everything you’re looking for, and enough of it, to warrant upgrading when it’s not a team’s clear need.
Xander Bogaerts has never posted a 5 WAR season (neither fWAR nor bWAR).
muskie73
4.9 per fangraphs last year. I think it’s safe to say Tim was rounding up.
Holy Boston could look very different next year.
…not as different as the Astros….somehow I think they’ll both survive……
Come back to Houston Paul Goldschmidt… the Woodlands class of 05
It’s fun to guess which one of these guys will be trade candidates at the deadline. MadBum stands out.
King Kong Bundy died yesterday. The second greatest New Jersey athlete behind Trout.
Buzz Aldrin was a stellar high school football player…
I hope people are liking this post because they remember King Kong fondly, and not because he died.
Not sure I’d rank Bogie above Rendon (man, that guy is under-rated). Boegarts is at best “meh” defensively, and, to the eyeballs, is a little less than that.
Not the be all end all, but fangraphs has hit at -10,-11 and -19 DRS the past 3 seasons. Corresponding UZR is -2.2, -0.9 and 1.3.
On Verlander, I could see 2 years plus two option years, with all 4 having some appearance incentives.
Replying to SocraticGadfly. I think that would make sense, too. This observation is admittedly based solely on subjective opinion and not at all statistically based, but Verlander strikes me a being cut from at least a little of the cloth of Nolan Ryan , physically capable of being a power pitcher to age 40 and maybe beyond, if he’s so inclined.
Verlander isn’t agreeing to two option years. Who’s the last great player that had two option years at the end of his contract?
Chris Sale
With the market the ways it’s been I don’t see bogarts getting 200M
Will my Halos spending money this next offseason?
Big name pitchers on the market… Lets hope we lock Trout long-term to focus on rebuilding the rotation with young/veteran arms.
I’m still bitter the Angels didn’t offer Greinke the house back in the day. Sometimes giving the house to a player is worth it. We just can’t think Pujols/ Hamilton/ MO Von/ Vernon Wells is a indicator for not spending big money.
Spent big money on Vlad and Torri and see how that panned out. UGHHH frustrating times in Epplers office.
They should’ve hired the GREAT talent evaluator, Jessica Mendoza.
Sarcasm.
If they pay Trout what hes worth, there will be no money for rebuilding a rotation.
…especially in 2021 when they’d be paying both Pujols AND Trout $30M+ each.
Couldn’t disagree more. Eppler is doing a great job. He was handed a really crummy situation. Unless Moreno is ready to blow past the Luxury Tax threshold, Eppler has made smart moves. My only gripe was re-upping with Justin Upton. Not a bad deal but not a super efficient move either.
The larger point is that huge free agent deals rarely work over the course of the entire contract. Sometimes it’s worth it – you need that little bit to get you over the edge. Unfortunately for the Angels, they didn’t even receive “a little bit”. Pujols, Hamilton, GMJr, Wells were all absolute disasters from day 1. People can critique the signings but in reality, each of those guys suffered down-turns that far exceeded any models expectation. They made poor decisions AND they experienced awful luck.
Good news is that the ship is being righted. Payroll is getting to be far more manageable. The farm system is looking the best it’s been in the last 15 years. Digging yourself out of a mess takes time. I applaud what Eppler has accomplished.
You know players and people are complaining that contracts are as much as they use to be but yet nothing gets said about how the production and longevity of these players are down. It was nothing to sign guys to age 40. Why is it like that because steroids are gone. But now these players can now live healthy lives. I’m sure Ken Caminiti would do it different now
Nothing to do with steroids; most players throughout history have declined badly after their age 33 season. The ones who don’t are the outliers – the Rickey Hendersons and Nolan Ryans of the world, and those guys are outliers because they were some of the greatest players of all time. Not many players get to age 40, and most players are not Hall of Famers. We tend to wonder “why aren’t there more Nolan Ryans?” or the like, but there have never been very many Nolan Ryans in baseball history – we just tend to remember them because they were the cream of the crop.
No mention of Jhoulys Chacin?
Given the 7/$70 deal Hicks just signed, I’m curious to see your thoughts on what the top outfielders will get (Ozuna, Castellanos, Puig)
I wouldn’t pay Ozuna a dime. Let that lazy f””k walk.
At least wait and see if his shoulder has recovered properly before you make snap judgements like that.
If Castellanos is just “an honorable mention” & that reflects on his earning potential, he very well could be the steal of the class.
And before someone says something about his defense, I’ve seen Lonnie Smith, Matt Holliday, & 3 bum-armed left fielders in my life in the form of Pujols, Grichuk, & Ozuna who literally had to roll the ball to other fielders in a pathetic effort to get the ball back to the infield so I’d have no prob watching him for several years patrolling left-field at Busch while racking up hella doubles & let’s not forget he just did turn 27 so bring it on.
Then again with Girzaliak as the braintrust of the Cards, we all know that ain’t happening because there is more important things to do like locking up 31 year old pitchers for many years to 70 million dollar contracts who only have one season of creditable output.
Do I seem bitter, lol?!?
I know Japan isn’t at the same level as MLB, but it’s still good enough that people really need to remember to give credit to Mikolas for dominating that league for 3 straight years before returning to dominate the NL last year.
Anyway, I do agree that Castellanos would be a nice target, but only if there’s an opening in LF next year. For all we know, Ozuna could prove himself healthy and then resign, or Fowler could rebound while O’Neill proves himself ready to be a starter next year. (The odds of both parts of the latter scenario coming true are admittedly low, but it’s still a reasonable possibility.)
Castellanos has a very interesting batted-ball profile – it is almost a mirror for that of JD Martinez. Like Martinez, Castellanos can’t field, at all, but that bat could play anywhere, especially when the DH comes to the NL in a couple years. And this is anecdotal, but some DH-types have an uptick in their batting stats once they no longer have to worry about defending – Ortiz and JDM come immediately to mind.
Tim, my question about the current FA class.
Do you see the Angels getting more aggressive in the James Shields/Edwin Jackson sweepstakes? Will either take a one year deal.
Also, why aren’t they also linked to Gio Gonzales.? Seems like you could get another lefty, for some added insurance with Heany and Skaggs both having injury history.
Think anything brewing behind the scenes?
It’d be nice to have like/dislike when people suggest possible trades. Other than that, I don’t miss the dislikes.
I wonder how many of these guys the Phillies will sign.
Whoever the Yankees don’t sign. So don’t expect much Philly.
Where is Rob Refsnyder?
Check out Bogaerts home/road splits for his career
.389 SLG and .709 OPS
He has no chance at a $200m deal…he also won’t be back with the Red Sox as they have to reset they’re luxury tax percentages before Betts is a free-agent. If neither Sale or JDM to the Sox in ’20 Bogaerts may have a chance to stay in Boston.
And, this us why the Cubs sit out this year’s free agency. Next offseason, Darvish will be the only SP locked in longterm. With Quintana and Hendricks on one year deals. Possibly only one more year of Lester. No doubt the Cubs will replace Hamels with one of these guys. My bet is on Wheeler, but I think Cole would be a nice get.
Maybe we should worry about securing contracts with this batch of FA’s before we worry about next! For example, If someone says that there’s not enough talent for expansion in MLB, consider this & the quality of free agents still unsigned 3 weeks into Spring Training….
Starting Pitchers
SP, Dallas Keuchel
SP, Gio Gonzalez
SP, James Shields
SP, Bartolo Colon
SP, Edwin Jackson
Relief Pitchers
CP, Craig Kimbrel
RP, Tony Sipp
RP, AJ Ramos
RP, Brandon McCarthy
RP, Jim Johnson
RP, Santiago Casilla
RP, Blake Wood
Starting 8
C, Martin Maldonado
1B, Logan Morrison
2B, Brandon Phillips
SS, Jose Reyes
3B, Conor Gillaspie
RF, Jose Bautista/Carlos Gonzalez
CF, Adam Jones/Austin Jackson
LF, Denard Span/Matt Holliday
DH, Evan Gattis
While this isn’t a particularly young team, the vast majority of players that were included had average or above average seasons in 2018 & even a couple of All-Stars including Kimbrel not to mention that there’s many more players still available via free agency as well as there’s some MLB worthy talent playing abroad.
And more over, this is a major point of contention between Ownership & the MLBPA with the quality of players still available this late into spring training & if expansion can alleviate some of this logjam between this and other measures that benefit the players association, a work stoppage which is on the horizon, could be avoided which is advantageous for all sides.
Just a thought!
One above average, one average and 3 below average starting pitchers, 1 good relief pitcher, way below average offensively and defensively(besides Maldonado). That would be a 70-75 win team.
That list of 8 everyday players looks like a who’s who of slow pitch softball players.
Reyes, Bautista, Morrison, Gillespie (didn’t even play in majors last year) and Gattis in most cases didn’t hit over 200. Bartolo and Ramos had ERA’s close to 6 or over 6. McCarthy almost 5. 1/4 of your lineup is well below average. In some cases, shouldn’t even be allowed near a baseball diamond (Bautista, Reyes, Colon)
Who’s “we”? None of us are GMs, so none of us have a responsibility to secure contracts for anyone. There’s nothing wrong with looking ahead to next season’s class.
That starting 9 would, maybe be the worst non-Baltimore/Kansas City team in baseball in 2019. Maldonado is a defense-only catcher. LoMo is the most generic kind of player in baseball – a poor-fielding first baseman with power – he was also absolutely terrible in 2018. Phillips is probably retired, and isn’t even a good hitter or fielder anymore. Reyes is awful, and the off-field stuff just makes him worse. He had a 260 OBP in 2018. I’m not sure why Conor Gillaspie is mentioned – he didn’t play in 2018 and has always been terrible. A career 251/304/391 player who can’t field anywhere.
Bautista is done. CarGo has always been a Coors Field illusion, and in 2018 he wasn’t even good in Colorado. Jones has no defensive value anymore and his allergy to ball four has sunk his offensive value. Austin Jackson was maybe the worst player in baseball in 2018 (non Chris Davis division)
Span is a fine fourth outfielder. Holliday played like 15 games in 2018 and he’s almost 40. Gattis has zero defensive value and doesn’t hit enough to be a DH. That’s actually a pretty putrid list of players.
There’s always enough talent for expansion, just not a lot off viable markets to make use of. The last thing MLB needs is another small market billionaire pleading poverty and Fielding some garbage team while pocketing millions in tv money….
Because of owner collusion, whatever players get now and before the agreement elapses, they should bank away.
Why?
I think the players will hold out and not play a year in order to get a ‘no collusion’ clause in the agreement.
Wheeler was only good for 2 months
Those two months still count as a part of the season. Would you also like to remove all the games from days on which Boston won and the Yankees lost?
I’d be very interested to see what Chris Sale could pull in free agency. I’ve seen some suggest that he get little more than a Patrick Corbin deal, but I think unless his shoulder literally falls off this year, he’s going to blow past that deal with ease.
I don’t really see Xander being a $200 million player either unless he has an absolutely monster season. His splits away from Fenway aren’t good and he’s already a subpar defensive shortstop that is only going to get worse as he ages.
Not only do I agree, I don’t even see anyone going to $100MM for Bogaerts. The recent Aaron Hicks contract looks pretty close (7/70) although seven is a real stretch for X and five looks more likely (maybe that means 5/70–that sounds right).
Make it so that commenters can post their own polls. That would really make it crazy.
Another classic Mozeliak panic move. Mikolas has ONE good season and MoTie throws 5 years, a ton of money, and his patented full no trade clause at him. Time for that goofy, bow tie, sweater wearing goob to move on.
“This is a fantastic free agent group… you are going to see 13 year contracts for $400 mil. Teams will be falling over themselves to sign Sale and Bogaerts and JD and Cole and Goldschmidt… That’s why they didn’t go crazy on the bidding this year.” Jim Bowden
Reinsdorf is already clipping coupons trying to get a discount offer ready for this class. Can’t wait to miss out again next year!
Tim, I don’t agree entirely with your ranking. You stated you ranked them based on your estimate of their 2019-20 open market earning power…..could you provide your estimate for each FA player earning power…or is that posted in another article? When the dust settles next year, I think people will be surprised at how low some these players may be valued….including Verlander, Rendon and Sale.
Assuming good health, what do you see Sale getting?
I think a team can get him at…. 5 yrs/$25M AAV with some incentives. while he has clearly performed at an elite level, players aren’t getting paid typically for what they did but what they can do. I think Kershaw and Greinke numbers (excess of $30 Mill AAV) are unrealistic for next years FA pitching class. He pitched well in 2018 but he’s not the key reason the Red Sox won the WS….I think they would have won it with or without him.
So you think he gets basically the same AAV as Patrick Corbin, but less years and total money? That’s a pretty absurd notion IMO.
Sale wasn’t able to contribute as much in the playoffs due to his shoulder injury but you’re fooling yourself if you think the team still wins the division if you take away all of Sale’s starts and replace those with BJ or Velazquez. They probably end up in the wild card, where they could have been out in one game.
OK…now some of the dust has settled and Sale has gotten his $30M for the next 5 yrs ….and Verlander extended for 2 yrs at $66M….I think these are overpays but clearly top talent.
Goldschmidt alters the balance of power in NLC.