3:40pm: Heyman tweets the full breakdown. Kepler earns successive salaries of $6MM, $6.25MM, $6.5MM, $6.75MM, and $8.5MM and will then receive either a $10MM salary or $1MM buyout. That 2024 option year salary can increase by up to $1MM based upon awards.
11:25am: It’s a five-year deal worth $35MM for Kepler, reports MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). The deal also contains a club option for a sixth season, which is valued at $10MM, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan (Twitter link).
10:25am: The Twins are nearing the completion of a new contract with right fielder Max Kepler, Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports. If and when the deal is completed, it’d be the second long-term deal hammered out by the Twins this week, as the team is also reported to be finalizing a five-year pact with shortstop Jorge Polanco. The Twins, notably, have scheduled a press conference for 10am tomorrow morning. Kepler is represented by Sosnick, Cobbe & Karon.
Kepler has already agreed to a $3.125MM deal for the 2019 season as a Super Two player, though a new long-term arrangement could potentially supersede that prior agreement. The German-born 26-year-old has spent the past three seasons as Minnesota’s primary right fielder, batting a combined .233/.314/.418 (96 OPS+) with 56 homers, 82 doubles, eight triples and 16 steals in 1626 plate appearances. He’s proven himself to be a strong defender in that time (+15 Defensive Runs Saved, +11 Ultimate Zone Rating, +32 Outs Above Average) and has drawn favorable reviews for his baserunning as well, even if his stolen-base totals are lacking (+8.1 BsR, per Fangraphs).
While Kepler’s overall production in his three years as an MLB regular doesn’t immediately stand out, there’s reason to believe that he could yet deliver a more impressive level of offensive output. For the first few seasons of his career, Kepler struggled mightily against left-handed pitching but turned in strong output against righties. From 2016-17, he hit .262/.336/.477 when holding the platoon advantage but mustered just a .177/.243/.280 slash against left-handers. This past season, though, Kepler delivered a much-improved .245/.323/.422 line against lefties and dramatically improved his strikeout and walk rates against them. Unfortunately, he saw his average on balls in play against right-handers crater, leading to diminished overall results.
If Kepler can bounce back in terms of BABIP against righties and maintain some of last year’s gains against lefties, there’s reason to expect the outfielder’s best season yet. Beyond that fairly rudimentary look at Kepler’s splits, he improved his walk rate to a career-high 11.6 percent in 2018 while slashing his strikeout rate to a career-low 15.7 percent. It’s also worth noting that the Berlin native also has less overall experience with baseball than most young players at his age, given baseball’s lack of popularity in his home country.
As things stand, Kepler will reprise his role as the everyday right fielder, with Eddie Rosario lining up in left and Minnesota once again hoping to see former No. 2 overall pick and top overall prospect Byron Buxton solidify himself at the Major League level. Buxton looked to be well on his way to breaking out as a star in 2017, but a series of injuries torpedoed his 2018 season and rendered him a question mark in 2019. He’ll get the first crack at regular work in center field, though the Twins also have Jake Cave on hand should Buxton struggle or be slowed by injuries once again. Both Kepler and Rosario can handle center field, as well.
A look at recent comparables in MLBTR’s Extension Tracker — specifically, Super Two outfielders with two to three years of service — Ender Inciarte stands out as a potentially relevant data point. The Braves’ center fielder signed an extension at the same age Kepler is now and with nearly identical service time, agreeing to a five-year pact worth $30.525MM prior to the 2017 campaign. Something in that range for Kepler could very well be plausible, though presumably his camp would like to top that mark in any negotiations.
As noted when looking at Polanco’s soon-to-be-finalized extension, the Twins don’t have a single guaranteed contract on the books beyond the 2019 season. Polanco and Kepler would change that fact and give the Minnesota organization additional cost certainty as it looks to supplement a roster that is largely comprised of young assets who are still years from reaching the open market. It’s possible that additional extensions could yet come to fruition, with Rosario and Jose Berrios standing out as prominent young Twins who the organization would surely like to retain for a longer period of time.
tharrie0820
Teams to the players “The biggest stars aren’t getting paid in FA, do you think you will? Might as well sign this extension now” Not saying there is, but it wouldn’t surprise me if there was some collusion going on
xXabial
teams will take advantage of extensions before the new CBA is agreed upon.
jorge78
It may not be collusion as much as rampant common sense is breaking out in MLB front offices…..
johnny koshi
It’s strange to me how so many MLB fans are obsessed w players “getting paid”. Who cares?! You’re not getting that money. The majority of these players aren’t worth what they are getting paid.
If me or you underperform at our jobs we get shown the door — in MLB you get raises and get to stick around for another 5 years.
Such victims of owners these players are.
iverbure
Johnny you forgot a lot of these guys especially if they reach the 3rd or even 2nd year of arb get generational wealth
nh_55
I think your first mistake is equating whatever you and I do to that of being a professional athlete…
GoSoxGo
I agree with nh_55. Like it or not, people pay a lot of money to see these players perform on the field. Their worth is tied to the revenue they are able to generate, and to the profits that club owners derive from their play. That’s one reason why someone like Harper is worth the $30 million or so that he’s trying to obtain. No one ever paid to see me perform at my job, so I didn’t generate the amount of revenue that Manny Machado does. And I’m guessing no one ever paid to see you perform, either. That’s why Harper will get something like $30mm this year and you and I won’t.
chesteraarthur
It’s been shown time and again that people pay to see winning teams far more than they pay to see *player*. Some one like Harper probably does add some marketability value, but the vast majority of his value is in helping his team win games and make the postseason more so than people paying to specifically watch him, or any other individual player.
So if these players help their teams win, they are worth a ton of money. If they end up as negatives on the team while also eating a large amount of payroll ala Pujols, for example, then they aren’t. We’ve seen time and time again that these long term investments rarely pay off, especially post steroids. So someone like Harper or Machado is worth 30m to a team right now (likely more than that, actually), but will they be worth 300m to the team over the next 10 years? I doubt it, but that’s open for debate.
SocraticGadfly
These extensions before the arb clock gets started have been around for a number of years. The Cards, not a small-market team (well, Minnesota is also, or should be, a mid-market team) did it with Kolten Wong and Allen Craig, among others.
kleppy12
I think it has to do with the fact they signed (or will sign) two in the last few hours alone.
trendysayings
Good job Twins. It speaks volumes about an organization when players are willing to sign these extensions rather than bide their time until free agency
monymgr
Yes, great move by this FO and organization ..
timewalk42
They are getting paid just not the exuberant amount the agency and media project. When a player turns down 10yr 300 million or sit on offers of 175 to 225 million you can say free agents aren’t getting paid
stansfield123
Salary projections are based on what players got paid in the past. (the good ones at least, like MLBTR).
When offers fall short of those projections, that OBVIOUSLY means that free agents are getting paid less than they would have been during the previous CBA.
There’s also a pretty obvious causal relationship between the new CBA and the lower offers. Specifically, the escalating luxury tax is keeping the big market teams from driving up the prices for star players. It no longer makes economic sense to do so.
And that SHOULD upset players. It’s not fair. Something needs to change. Doesn’t mean the luxury tax needs to be gotten rid of or anything like that, but there needs to be some kind of new mechanism, that incentivizes higher salaries. If the luxury tax stays the way it is, that means the incentives should be directed to the 27 teams who are under $206M, rather than the three who aren’t.
Such incentives could include earlier free agency or earlier arbitration (both would force teams to hand out extensions to keep their players), penalties for finishing last in the division (causing teams to rebuild while competing, rather than give up on seasons), higher arbitration rulings, etc.
southi
Not fair???? The players agreed to something and you claim it isn’t fair? I’m sorry but if someone signs a contract they are bound to that contract just like any other person or entity. You can’t say, I don’t like that or I didn’t think if those consequences, or I didn’t read the fine print. How about live up to the agreement and next time actually try to negotiate something better if you don’t think that what you agreed to now was fair. Quit making excuses and accept the consequences of your actions!
gibsonlp
Penalties for finishing last place???
“Your team sucks, here are some more obstacles.”
Some teams will finish last place even if they do try to compete. Baltimore was fully committed to winning in 2018. San Diego handed out a big contract last off season, still finished last. The Giants almost finished last with one of the highest payrolls.
zachgwest
I like some type of luxury tax to create a more of even playing field. It gets old seeing the same teams in the playoffs…
iverbure
It gets old seeing the same team in the playoffs…? Yeah Mlb should have a salary cap to ensure parity like the nba or nfl… side note congrats to the long suffering fans of the patriots and golden state warriors glad you guys finally got to see your team win in your lifetime.
gronk
I’m genuinely trying to decipher if that last note was sarcasm or not. Patriots fans like myself that aren’t in their early twenties or younger lived through years of miserable Patriot football. Every time I read or hear the all too common “I’m sick of New England” “let someone else win” I just want to scream from the rooftop and remind people that the Patriots were around before ‘2001. And despite a couple of Superbowl losses including one that they had no rite being in they were bad.
chesteraarthur
What do the players give up?
Gus Leggett
But you completely forgot the 1 real problem with baseball…and all other professional sports. Not a one of them is worth $20 million a season, let alone $10 million or even $5 million. IT’s about time the “free-for-all” in excessive contracts to pro athletes starts to slow down. Yeah, I know the argument of “can you throw a baseball 95 mph, let alone hit it”, but that is just self-righteous blabber to convince themselves that they are worth that kind of money. No the owners need to start taking a page out of Arthur Blanks system, and cut down the costs of actually going to game. Owners want stadiums filled, then make it affordable to go to more than 3-4 a year.
jd396
If it wasn’t affordable they wouldn’t be able to have like 99.8% margins on bottles of Dasani
dontpanik
It’s called ‘Opportunity cost.’
You also clearly have no idea the amount of hard work and dedication it takes to reach the highest levels of a sport.
Who do you think deserves the lion’s share of revenue?
Finally, you think that if players take less to play the owners will benevolently lower ticket prices in response?
Keep up the right-wing virtue signaling.
chesteraarthur
How is what he said, “right wing virtue signaling”?
It’s dumb, but I don’t understand how it is right wing or really virtue signaling.
jd396
“Keep is the right-wing virtue signaling,” said the only guy virtue signaling anything.
kleppy12
Pretty sure he doesn’t understand what virtue signaling means.
jd396
When the past salaries were part of a bubble, and the bubble pops, then what?
qazer
No, it’s not at all obvious that salaries must always go up. There are lots of reasons why salaries are trending downwards. Many of them have to do with analytics making teams smarter and more realistic about roster construction. Time was, a 75 win team would go out and sign a couple 30somethings to big contracts and tell themselves they’re in line for a 10 win improvement. Nobody does that anymore, because we’re smarter.
Yes, the number of teams going the total rebuild route is an problem. But fixing it is going to have to involve working with the market as it is now — one where older players simply aren’t valued as much as they once were — instead of wishing things went back to where they once we’re.
mamss
Smart move. If his bat develops could really be a bargain. Safe floor aswell
Paul Griggs
At what point does common sense and good business practice start being collusion? The Rays did this years ago with Longoria. Both sides agreed to the deal.
tharrie0820
The difference between then and now is the fact that no one is getting paid in FA, not just the players asking for the huge dollars. If you were a player. I think there’s a chance that the owners collectively realised that if no one is getting paid in FA, players would be more willing to accept these absurdly team friendly deals with next to no upside for them just to avoid the whole thing
chesteraarthur
How is a guaranteed $35m “next to no upside”?
jd396
It isn’t today’s players’ faults that their forefathers were offered objectively irrational FA contracts that turned into colossal failures, but they’re the ones paying for the MLBPA being happy riding an unsustainable bubble for so long.
The system is slanted and broken, but it has been for a LONG time and somehow, only just NOW that things have shifted somewhat and medium grade FA aren’t getting $120m contracts, are some people starting to sense something is amiss.
jorge78
And now it’s another bad contract…..
Steve Adams
Their second extension with Longoria has become a poor one (albeit for another team). Their first was six years and $14.4MM, which obviously proved to be a steal.
SocraticGadfly
As noted above, the Cards, who are not a small-market team, did this with Allen Craig and Kolten Wong. And, as I forgot above, with Carpenter, too.
batty
DeJong and C. Martinez as well. It wouldn’t surprise me if Flaherty gets one this Spring Training.
SocraticGadfly
Possible. And, to be honest, I hope not, unless it includes club options. He only has one full season plus scraps of a second under his belt. I would be OK with an in-season deal if he builds positively on 2018, and would be fine if the team waited until the end of the year. But, he’s not even eligible for arbitration until 2021.
batty
Which pretty much mirrors DeJong’s previous tenure in the bigs. Buy early to reduce future salaries is going to be more prevalent in the coming years. Especially if players see this, and last off season, as the future of free agency.
bobtillman
The first Longo deal was an act of genius on the Rays’ part; the second one, a disaster. At some point you have to have the skill to identify the difference between a player whose first year is harbinger of better things to come, or a player reaching his ceiling at a young age, and regressing from there (which describes Longo).
Not that he’s been a bad player; not at all. But he’s certainly been overpaid, and, as of now, entered albatross territory.
How much of it are the skills that metrics quantify? How much is due to a player being severely undermotivated by a lousy team playing in front of few fans, with his check already in the bank? Tough to ascertain.
jd396
How many times has this happened? It’s been the same story over and over and over again, yet some are still utterly shocked and amazed that teams are now reticent to buy up lots of age 30+ seasons in long term deals.
johnny koshi
Exactly!
canocorn
— “At what point … collusion?” —
Just after your insurance lapses.
Oh, wait … that would be collision.
JJB
Quick… are Kepler or Polanco friends with Manny Machado or Bryce Harper?
jungbongjovi
Inciarte was prior to the 2017 season, btw
Steve Adams
Augh! Thanks. Fixed.
Comrade Tipsy McStagger
This is a great movie. I think Kepler has an inner Yelchin waiting to come out. I hope this is the year he puts it all together.
Chicks Dig the Longball
Not a bad comp as both platers have a similar skill set. Kepler could even be more of a consistent power threat due to his launch angles.
KingBong
Just as I said in the Polanco thread, i’m not a Twins fan, can’t claim to be an expert on Polanco or Kepler, but these look like very good moves. Locking down youthful players for long-term at cheap rates. I guess these players fear the FA market now. This should leave the Twins with plenty of money to surround these players with All-Stars…if they ever decide to spend on such. With great value on these contracts, possibly more to come, the Twins should be stacking that team. They should have been more aggressive on the FA market this year. Still, there’s nothing not to like about these moves.
37santobanks
How can a player have 1.7oWAR and yet have an OPS+ of 96?
SocraticGadfly
Because WAR includes defense. That’s how Ozzie Smith could have 5 or 6 WAR. Derp.
RiseAgainst3598
WAR means wins above replacement. A replacement player likely only has an OPS+ of like 75 (I didnt actually look this up but the point stands). If you were to find and look at an offensive wins above average that might be closer to the fact that he had a 96 OPS + (:
Bunselpower
Yeah, to add, replacement does not mean average. A lot of people get hung up here.
Wins Above Replacement is a term used for a players theoretical addition to the win column above a player that essentially bats at the Mendoza line (Colloquially, a AAAA player).
OPS+ is weighted to the average MLB player, NOT the minimum player. So it’s a good indication of who bats well and who doesn’t. It can be used in conjunction with WAR to see whose value is defensively carried.
SocraticGadfly
That said, this is why I think WAA is a better rating than WAR.
jd396
WAR is generally pretty good for comparing players to one another but people get hung up on the actual number itself too much, wanting it to be some be-all end-all valuation of a player. It’s concrete data run through several layers of abstraction and ultimately doesn’t really measure anything specific on its own.
Line players up next to each other, and you can see who was generally more valuable, you can see that different types of players provide similar value, you can see that players can be very valuable even if the “traditional” stats don’t look appealing. But some like to overrely on the number itself. The worst for me is the $$/WAR valuations…
CalcetinesBlancos
I’m guessing this one has a lot to do with marketing him.
The Ghost of Bobby Bonilla
Huh? I always thought there was a lockout period of a season where you are forbidden from trading a guy you just signed to a long-term extension.
batty
Marketing doesn’t only mean trading. It could be selling him to fans as a face.
jd396
Cool!
Sky14
Both signings are very solid moves by the Twins. Would be great if they could lock down Berrios and Rosario as well.
bravesfan
How is this a good deal? He’s not good. Arbitration is cheaper than this and makes more sense for a player like him because he isn’t good
The Ghost of Bobby Bonilla
I watch a ton of AL Central games and this guy is good, with a lot of potential upside too. Even if he just maintained his current level of production, I’d guess his salaries in 2019-2024 would be something like: $3M, $6M, $9M, $12M, $14M, $15M.
The Twins just bought $56M of likely future salaries for $35M. I’d say they got a great deal as long as he stays healthy.
refereemn77
As a Twins fan, I’d say that Kepler and Rosario are my favorite players outside of Buxton (if he can be consistent on offense this year). Kepler is an above average defender. And if he can apply what he did against LHP last year with RHP this year, he’s going to be very good!
nh_55
I wouldn’t say that. He has good gap power and can hit the ball over the fence. He has above-avg walk rates and is a good contact hitter (both of which continue to improve). He plays solid OF defense and has shown he can play some CF if needed. His achilles so far has been a poor BABIP. If that can become even league average, he can get that average up into the 260s or 270s. So yeah, it’s a bit of a calculated risk, but on the other hand, if his numbers take off, he will become expensive in arbitration which is not that far off.
gofish 2
There are obviously other markers (defense, WAR, etc.), but .233 over the last three years doesn’t scream “major contract extension” to me.
bobtillman
It’s a fairly “meh” kind of deal, for a player who’s rather “meh” himself. The problems are twofold for the Twins: (a) how much is backloaded, so they wind up paying for (as Bill Veck notoriously intoned) “the high price of mediocrity” and (b) if you load up on “meh” contracts, how much do they, a limited resource franchise, have left to pay for the impact talent every contending team needs?
The Twin s have been a mystery. They have a decent young core that can be melded with some impact talent and contend. For some reason, they’ve chosen to be more obsessed with keeping that core rather than to adding to it.
The problem is of course, the core gets older, suffers injuries, underperforms. Meanwhile, other teams start to race passed them.
Comrade Tipsy McStagger
You guys have clearly never seen Kepler play. All your theorizing means very little. This guy is a star waiting to break out.
nh_55
The contract is fairly front-loaded with the first year being $6.25M with small raises in the coming years. If he even continues his current performance, in 5 yrs time, that will be palatable. I do think they could’ve been more active in FA, particularly in improving the pen because of the strong reliever market, but if they are going to lock-down some guys and front-load some contracts leaving them with greater future flexibility, I’m all for it.
SocraticGadfly
All player values increase until a player hits peak. To talk about a contract like this being “backloaded” is pretty dumb.
Koamalu
Kepler is the poster child for how little BA is worth and how much defense is worth in today’s game.
nh_55
I agree to an extent. However, based on his minor league numbers, his walk/K rates and BAIP in the majors, he is capable of hitting at a much higher avg (.260s-.270s). He is a solid hitter that has good gap power and can make good contact. Eventually, all of these things are going to translate into better performance.
jleve618
FO’s might not value BA so much, but they should. I can’t count the amount of times last season where Carlos Santana could have driven in a run with a single, but walked instead and the runners were stranded. A walk will never equal a hit.
Jjbeach
I like Kepler, and I like—if the Twins weren’t spending money on free agency this year—extending their everyday young players to long contracts. Plus, I hope they front load the contracts.
Jjbeach
Ah, good. They pretty much doubled what Max was going to make this year. So they did front-load $3.125 MM.
nh_55
This will be a huge help down the line when they have to pay some of their other players and supplement the roster in FA.
refereemn77
The Twins had almost nothing on the books in future years. Front loading the contract keeps it that way…
andrewgauldin
The MLB is operating more and more like the NHL in terms of extensions and contracts. Players are actually getting payed for what they are worth, or will be worth. I love it. Hopefully the next CBA raises the minimum salary, and idk if the CBA can do this, but salaries or minor leagues need to rise. Seems like a win win for owners and players if this happens.
nh_55
My guess is something will be done to get more $ into the players’ hands earlier in their careers by perhaps shaving a couple of years so that players are arbitration eligible after service time of two years. In return, we may see a limit on the length of player contracts (i.e 5,6,7 years). I am all for this because as a fan, it’s frustrating to see your team handcuffed due to some sunk contracts of players no longer producing. I understand there isn’t a salary cap in MLB, but I do realize that teams can’t run from year-to-year in the red by spending carelessly.
andrewgauldin
I’m all for that. I think maybe even instead of service time clock done by days, I think a player should accumulate 1 year of service time just by spending 1 month, idk 30 days, or make it 45 days? Something like that. Players, especially relievers get robbed. If anybody gets abused by service time, it’s pitchers. My proposal is if you’re on the active roster for 45 days, you’ve accumulate a whole year of service time. There should also be a limit on how many times you can get brought up and down in a season. Or maybe if you get brought up just for one game, that counts as 10 days of service time.. I’m sure there’s rules on service time that I’m unaware of. Correct me if I’m wrong.
Moneyballer
A+ move here. This kid is a stud!
Wolf Hoffmann
$7,000,000 a year for a bad player. Yeah the MLB players are getting hosed all right.
Comrade Tipsy McStagger
It’s widdle wolfy coming out of his den. You have a good nap wolfy? Did the big bad Max Kepler scare you? It’s okay wolfy. You need a hug? No hug? Okay, let me know when you are done pouting in the corner. I know. That Max Kepler just ruins everything, doesn’t he? Yes he does. Yes he does.
Comrade Tipsy McStagger
Thank you Tipsy. I just peed my pants at my cubicle. It’s like 5 degrees here and all I have are gym shorts in the car. How am I going to pull this off?
heater
Kepler isn’t a bad player. This is a good deal for both team and player at this point. We’ll have to wait and see how the next five years play out to judge it but from here it looks fair.
Pablo
This has a ton of potential to be great. Not a ton of risk based on his path.
twins33
Love this. He’s one I was hoping they’d extend. I think his results are ready to catch up to his adjustments (fangraphs article that he broke out in 2018). If anyone reminds me of Aaron Hicks, it’s him. And he’s actually better than Hicks was as a Twin (offensively). Just have to be patient. I was finally frustrated with Hicks and wanted him gone. Now I’d love to have him back. I won’t make the same mistake with Kep. Though he may never get the results, he’s still worth this deal even if he never improves on 2018. It’s cheap.
Berrios is next hopefully but he’s definitely a guy who would bet on himself. Very driven person. But being a pitcher and arms being ticking time bombs, hopefully he’ll want some longer security.
martras
Wow, the current free agent market is really scaring the crap out of players. That’s my hot take on this. Kepler is a solid player with speed to play decent center field and plus speed for right. Younger players seem more open to surrendering free agent years knowing the paydays haven’t been there for good players over the past couple years and the Twins’ front office is taking full advantage of the fear.
I expect he’s going to be a 3.0 WAR player going forward and he signed for $7M/yr. He’ll earn at least that in arbitration next year. It’s a huge discount for some long term guaranteed pay.
If Kepler shows any kind of breakout this year, his AAV value on a long term deal would likely increase by at least 50% for next year.
nh_55
I think I might actually be a little bit higher on him since he put up 2.8 WAR last season hitting .224 with a low .700s OPS. If his BABIP can return to being around league-avg (from his .234 rate last yr) and his defense continues to be above-avg, I can see him being a 4 WAR player (at times exceeding 5 WAR).
Yankeepatriot
Besides hitting more home runs he is no better than billy Hamilton statistically. Less SB than billy too
nh_55
Billy Hamilton has never had an OPS above .650 while Kepler is capable of being a good defensive OF and consistently putting up an OPS of 800+.
Yankeepatriot
his career ops is 730, that’s bad period lol. That doesn’t scream capable of 800+. Until he actually shows he can do it I wouldn’t bet on it. He is a bad hitter. Besides the 100 point difference in ops he is the same player as Hamilton
nh_55
He’s plenty capable of eventually having an OPS of 800+. There are two things that he does that Hamilton doesn’t do and that is hit for HR/gap power and have good plate discipline.. His walk rate has always been pretty solid and it improved quite a bit last season with his K rate also making a notable decline to ~16%. On top of that, he had a sizable jump in his hard hit ball %. However, his BABIP has been extremely low (.235) and if we see an increase of that to even league average this season, his batting average will likely jump into the 260s or 270s and his OBP will be around 90-100 points above that with his SLG% being at least .450 closing in on .500. Hopefully, he’s been active in the weight room as that may help a bit with is batted ball average. When looking at a player that may be on the verge of breaking out, there’s a lot more to it than simply looking at their basic peripheral stats. That is why if the Twins signed an OF in free agency, quite a few teams would be inquiring about him and they would be able to get a pretty decent player in return with him as the main piece in a trade package. It’s because people in the game know his value whereas casual fans do not.
nh_55
Also, assuming that you are a Yankee fan, If Aaron Hicks was able to eventually figure things out and actually put up worse numbers at the same point in their carears, then why is it that Kepler is DOA to you?
nyy42
Why this guy is more of a drop candidate than an extension candidate!
This Guy Stinks!
tgovey
Regardless of the money or years, I like seeing homegrown talent stay for the long term, but they could just as much get traded.
I think they should change how players get paid, they should get paid for how they play, idk if it should be stat-based or what but successful players should be paid accordingly and vice versa. These mega long term deals just don’t work out, maybe there should be a structure in place to avoid how long they can be, and these superstars can get big paydays but short term. I’m not trying to protect ownership or anything but a mega deal can lock up a team financially where other players can’t get there’s.
stansfield123
I know pitchers are injury prone and all, but I don’t get how Nola puts up freaking 10 WAR in 2018, and then gives up two years of free agency for $45M guaranteed…and then the Twins turn around and commit $60M to two players who combined for 4.3 WAR in 2018, and gave up 3 free agency years between them.
And it’s not like 2018 was an off year for either of them. They were typical years. And one of them spent half the season under suspension for PEDs.
stansfield123
Correction: Polanco gave up three free agency years, and Kepler two. That is a little bit more sensible.
nh_55
Nola signing for $45M does surprise me. However, I highly doubt the Twins would’ve done these deals if they thought that the production they have seen so far are their ceilings. Kepler seems to be on the verge of becoming a pretty darn good player (4-5 WAR) while Polanco should be a decent IF to have under cost control for a while.
SocraticGadfly
I think it’s an overpay. This guy, on defense, is a plus player, sure, but he’s not Jason Heyward, let along Clemente, with glove/arm/range. Only way its a deal is if the OPS+ gets over 110.
timewalk42
Polanco and Kepler yuk I fell bad for Twins fans looks like mediocre is locked in for the next 3 years
murillob
I don’t think extension with a player with a career .233 average unless maybe he’s hitting 40 plus out of the park.
jeb39999
I think an important to note that neither of the contracts will in any way hamper the Twins future by way of heavy financial burden. If they start living up to their potential they will look like steals and if they don’t the twins would have dropped that money on some mediocre talent down the road anyway so basically would break even.
jeb39999
The twins are not tight on money so the merit of these contracts really is a meaningless conversation.