1:17pm: Werner and principal owner John Henry met with the Boston media today and indicated that they’ve not only discussed a long-term deal with Sale but also with Xander Bogaerts (link via the Globe’s Peter Abraham). Like Sale, Bogaerts is slated to become a free agent at the end of the 2019 season. The ownership reps noted that while they’d love to be able to keep each of Sale, Bogaerts and Mookie Betts in Red Sox uniform for the long haul, such a scenario probably isn’t realistic.
Perhaps of note, when asked about the last top-tier lefty the Sox had on the cusp of free agency, Henry candidly acknowledged that the Red Sox “blew it” when trying to work out an extension with Jon Lester prior to 2014 — Lester’s last in Boston.
8:38am: The Red Sox and ace Chris Sale have had “private” discussions about a contract extension, chairman Tom Werner said in an appearance on WEEI’s Mut & Callahan show this morning (Twitter link, with audio). Sale is currently slated to earn $15MM in 2019 and will become a free agent next offseason. He said last week that the Red Sox had not yet initiated extension negotiations.
Clearly, whether it’s in the form of an extension or in an open-market setting, Sale is in position to command a substantial raise — likely one that would at least double his salary. The seven-time All-Star, who will turn 30 years old in March, has finished in the top five in American League Cy Young voting in each of the past six seasons and has never turned in an ERA higher than 2015’s mark of 3.41. It’s somewhat surprising that Sale has never actually taken home the Cy Young hardware, though his excellence and consistency still make him a solid bet to do so at some point in his career; Sale’s 10.88 K/9 and 5.31 K/BB ratio are both the best all-time marks for any pitcher to ever have thrown 1000 MLB innings.
A new contract for Sale would begin in his age-31 season, so the length of the pact could be a potential sticking point in talks. Teams throughout the league have shown increasing resistance to guaranteeing money to players into their late 30s, and it’s been fairly rare to see five-, six- and seven-year deals that guarantee pitchers into their age-37 seasons. That said, assuming a healthy year from Sale, he could have a case to to top Zack Greinke’s current $34.4MM annual salary record. While he hasn’t previously called that a goal, Sale did recently express the importance of furthering the market for future players.
“You want to do right by the guys who are coming next year, two years, 10 years down the road because you kind of set the bar and the next guy who comes along either gets to that bar or sets it a little more,” Sale said in his own appearance on Mut & Callahan last week. “That’s kind of the brotherhood of being a Major League Baseball player.”
A healthy 2019 season will be of particular importance for Sale in 2019. While he’s long been a consistent force in the rotation with both the White Sox and Red Sox, he was limited to 27 starts last year — his fewest since 2015 — and went through a pair of stints on the disabled list as a result of inflammation in his left shoulder. Sale certainly looked healthy when striking out the side to close out Boston’s World Series win over the Dodgers. though, and he’s now had the benefit of a full offseason to rest that mildly problematic shoulder.
It’s worth noting that an extension for Sale would push the Red Sox into the top luxury tax penalization bracket. As I explored recently when looking at what it’d actually cost the Sox to re-sign Craig Kimbrel — the taxes on any such signing could top $10MM — Boston is only about $6MM south of that $246MM barrier. Viewed through that lens, the Sox may actually prefer to wait until the end of the season, although in doing so they’d also be running the risk of allowing Sale to test the open market.
Extend him if you must, but whatever you do, don’t give him a throwback jersey to wear.
2016 is on the line for you…
no thanks, I find phone calls exhausting.
This pinkerton character has the comedic tact of Benjamin Bronk.
I’m not sure if it’s a compliment or not. I had to look this fella up, I never heard of him.
He certainly doesn’t look funny.
Which I’m sure may be your point!
Enter the vortex
Sale’s contribution as a Red Sox, made that story moot?
Trader Dave’s best trade? Either way, Sale’s got heart.
Any Sale extension should cost $200M+
Balancing act. He’s an injury risk Who has never ended the year strongly. Unless he’s taking a discount, might be best to first see how his hip Ian’s the rest of his body is say in May. Would like to wait until August but If he’s healthy, he’ll play the season out at that point.
He named his hip Ian? What a weirdo
Sale has a violent pitching motion, but gets the job done… every year.
LOVE he’s rare spectrum of SP who said he wouldn’t mind implementation of pitch clock. He’s quick to pitch, and perennial Cy young candidate least until mid-season maybe more
Tons of heart. Sale-boat capable of floating the entire team at times.
Will always respect and wish him well (except against our guys). Just wish he’d learned not to run with scissors.
This is the new wave, players fear the unknown in FA.
Yes they do. Wonder what he could fetch. I can’t see most teams wanting to go past 4 years at a high annual rate.
Sale’s durability is what really concerns me at this point, and what would certainly harm his stock in free agency, at least where contract length is concerned. If the Sox extend him, I hope it comes with some understanding that his future may well be in the closer’s role.
he’s gonna be looking for 30mm+ a year, that would be a lot to shell out for a future reliever no matter how dominant
That’s a crazy statement. In his 7 years starting, he has appeared in 30+ games 5 times. … A little mild injury and you talk about him like his arm is going to fall off. Relax
An idea I floated earlier that won’t be considered but I argue has merit is to start his season June 1st. Reminds me of Bruce Hurst in 1986 in that Hurst was injured at the start if the year and I think opened up in July. From August on he was as good if not better than Clemens. He also was clearly the team’s best in October that year. As far as contracts, I think he will take four years at David Price money or possibly even less. If his ending to 19 is consistent with his other years, he may be looking at five max at $22 – $25m per. He may be able to choose his team but no one will give him $30m + per if he runs out of gas or has injury issues again. Just my spin.
He’s in his 30s, his second halves have tended to be less impressive than his first halves, due to a mixture of declining velocity (presumably due to tiredness in his arm) and injury. As he continues to age, especially with his lanky frame, it seems unlikely to me that that trend is going to improve. I’m not sure it’s realistic to expect Chris Sale to function as a full-time starter for an entire season + October into his mid-30s. At least not without relying on a less velocity-intensive approach to making outs.
Did you watch sale close with the white sox? He wasn’t really good at it.
When he was a rookie? I don’t really think his performance in that role from 2010/2011 is especially relevant now.
Agreed that his rookie stats are meaningless. What’s relevant though is how his body would hold up if he had to get ready to pitch 4 times per week even if itsvjustbone inning each time.
I would be wary of his next 5 seasons. They won’t be as good as his previous 5 seasons. He breaks down every single year, too.
His age 31-35 seasons won’t be as good as age 26-30? You don’t say, ground breaking stuff there, buddy.
Last sentence makes no sense………If Sox and Sale agree to extension, it doesn’t impact tax/penalty calc until 2020 season when the new deal kicks in. No parallel to Kimbrel situation, whose signing would be doubly expensive due to surcharge..
Wrong. An extension resets the AAV per year on the existing contract.
Example: in ’19 Sale gets 15 mil and is done. Say an unrealistic extension, 1yr for 35 mil. The current contract is now 2 yrs, 50 mil total – 15 this year, 35 next, BUT the AAV is now 25 per year, triggering highest level of penalty.
That’s the problem with an extension this year before money comes off the booKs from bad contracts.
If the extension resets the AAV of the current contract, and Sale’s current pact is at $6.5M AAV over five years, would a new 5 year at say $30M become a ’10 year’ totalling $182.5M and thus a $18.25 AAV?? Simply, how much of the current contract gets averaged into the new one?
I’m not sure but I believe there’s a choice, an extension of a new contract covering once the existing one ends. Not many times is a team over the tax already so it normally doesn’t matter. Also, timing is important when it does matter. At least it did under the old agreement. Remember the Sox traded for A ton in 2011 but waited before announcing the extension.
I’m not sure but I believe there’s a choice, an extension or a new contract covering once the existing one ends. Not many times is a team over the tax already so it normally doesn’t matter. Also, timing is important when it does matter. At least it did under the old agreement. Remember the Sox traded for A ton in 2011 but waited before announcing the extension.
3/105 incentives include 5mil bonuses for winning Cy Young. Of course he’ll turn down the offer and wait to sign next March so the simpleton fans can yell collusion.
Based on his comments, it looks like Sale will sign in mid-March next year at the earliest. 2 years, plus club option, AAV slightly above the qualifying offer.
He wouldn’t take less than 5/145.
The he might not get signed.
You really think Yanks wouldn’t jump on that.That would give them Sale Severino Paxton Tanaka Happ as a rotation and would leave Boston with ? The Yankees would sign that contract in a heartbeat and Boston couldn’t allow that to happen
He’ll be 31. No. The Yankees aren’t dumb enough to sign him to a 5 year contract.
Not enough years or cash unless he’s looking for a team friendly deal – which comments about setting market imply not.
My guess is he’s wanting 5-6 years if this year is ok to fairly unimpressive, or 6-7 years if he pitches well without injury. AAV in the 40 range as an ask.
What he takes…. I’d think 34-37 AAV gets it depending on the years offered.
With his age, innings, and lanky body you have to expect he looks at this as his final contract realistically
Tired of hearing about rich teams refusing to do what’s necessary to assemble and/or keep a winning roster. With one of the most lucrative media revenue deals in MLB and ticket revenue likewise near the top of all teams, Red Sox ownership can clearly afford to exceed the luxury cap. Whether they choose to speaks more to the question of how committed they are to staying on top, as opposed to simply maximizing profits. I say this as a Red Sox fan who accepts high ticket prices as the cost of winning. Lock up Sale. He’s been a great deal for the team and will continue to deliver exceptional value.
You clearly have very little understanding of the luxury tax system. No team can afford to blow past the luxury tax and stay there, if they did that they would be a very poorly run organization. Fans are not entitled to have teams with 20mil guys at every position. As much as you’d love to see your red sox buy every superstar to “keep a winning roster” as you say, that is unrealistic. What is realistic is playing within the system that’s in place…capitalizing on young cheap talent, spending money on free agent players of positional need and getting help at the deadline to make a run at postseason glory.
He also forgets that the penalties are no longer just monetary tax, but losing international bonus slot money, and even more importantly, 10 spots on the 1st round draft pick plus that bonus slot money…
Wouldn’t that knock them out of the 1st round too? At least potentially with them slated to win more than 90 games
Losing 10 spots in the MLB is NOTHING!
You clearly have little awareness of the timing of the team’s payroll issues. Money coming off payroll annually as contracts end and players retire or are traded means that exceeding the cap need not be a long term situation. Maybe you have some insight into the Red Sox’ front office calculus? Kinda doubt it genius.
The Dodgers and Yankees will generate revenue of 600+ million this year. The tax means nothing but less profit in an owners pocket. That’s all it is, just keep that in mind when they stay under the 206 million threshold.
Do you think the wealthy ownership groups got to where they are by being stupid?
Exactly dude. It’s so simple- all the guys who think teams should spend every penny- think what it does to organization. FO to minor league teams to pro and internal scouting and camps and analytics depts…ect.
All you spend every last penny/ how do you manage your finances? Is is retirement portfolio under invested? Do u have 1? U have savings? U live pay check to paycheck? If u own a business you can’t just look 1 year ahead. I have 1,2,3,5,10+ year plans. U think they don’t have entire departments planning for future? The Sox, yanks, Braves, St. Louis just to name a few are smart organizations and see and analyze the future the best they can.
If you think teams should spend everybody penny they make it overskebd and think of your personal finances. U have a $1mil in a 401k, IRA, pension to get you through retirement as u want to retire b4 70 and we are living much longer. $50k retirement income a year for 2 for 20 years is $1 mil. Forget interest, depreciation..ect. If your home makes $100k total a year living off $50k with mortgage paid is not bad but, not great. Respectable and comfortable but not taking big trips and if and when you get sick and Medicare or your ins. Plan which premiums get higher yearly take up a huge % if your fixed income- would u think you may have should saved it invested more $? Diversified?
A major sports franchise is like a living organism with lots of moving parts like our bodies. You have to take care of every part and do it while conservating energy ($) or you take away from other parts.
A salary restructuring needs to be done. A floor set and penalties for doing thibgs like leaving top prospects in minors to F the over by gaining mire cheap years. And players need to give by agreeing to some max $ peak or economic plan that takes into account the economy with salaries. I have friends who work for an agency that helps disabled people- autism, downs..ect. No real raise since 2007, due to recession. But, everything has gone up in last 12 years. So, I don’t feel bad that a player is ONLY offered $200 mil or $240 mil or $60 mil. To play a game that has insane perks like stipends got food when on road and free food at home. Great health ins., pension..ect. How many here worry about money often? I bet many of us.
So why defend spiked athletes when they or anyone else is not looking out for you????
Thanks for the unnecessary advice, Mr. Buffet.
quality dig. keep it up. and you got an upvote.
Mr Buffet wouldn’t agree with him. He admits he should be paying much hire taxes and the little man is getting screwed.I think you meant Mr Trump
hire??
It’s not a game, it’s a profession.
It would be unnecessary if you exhibited a modicum of economic insight.
If Mr. Buffet truly believed he should be paying more taxes, he’s more than welcome to write the government a check. Also, since much of his worth is tied to his Berkshire-Hathaway stock, he really hasn’t paid much in taxes compared to his worth.
I’m tired of reading opinions of those who are telling Major League Ball Clubs how they should spend their dollars. ‘I’m tired of these rich teams…..’
If you’re tired of it, you may need to find a new sport to watch or get into. Check out the AAFL, it’s a hoot and all the players make the same amount of money so you won’t have to worry.
It’s not just the money… you lose draft picks and get lower draft pick slots which affects your team to also have quality young players on minimum contracts.. it’s an unsustainable formula..
How do you act as if them not signing Sale would mean they aren’t trying to compete. I think having $100M or so for 5 starters hinders them from focusing on the guys they should sign to keep. Price and Eovaldi are nearly $50M for the next few years. ERod will go up through arbitration. I think you can only have one of Porcello or Sale and maybe neither.Id rather they ensure a competitive team with Betts and Benintendi as musts and then whoever else from Bogaerts, Bradley, Devers they bring along. Ratings wont drop unless they lose out on everyone who could leave. We arent talking about going from $230M to half of that or less.
Tired of hearing about rich teams refusing to do what’s necessary to assemble and keep a winning roster. With one of the most lucrative media revenue deals in MLB and ticket revenue likewise near the top of all teams, Red Sox ownership can clearly afford to exceed the luxury cap. Whether they choose to speaks more to the question of how committed they are to staying on top, as opposed to simply maximizing profits. I say this as a Red Sox fan who accepts high ticket prices as the cost of winning.
have you ever owned a business come on man you just don’t give it away
Hello? Retaining a top 5 pitcher at market value isn’t “giving away” anything. It’s called valuing quality, something any successful business must do. And yes, I do own a business.
Thank God you don’t own a MLB business then…
Time to pick up your next Uber fare, bro.
another! hammer away!
So lets take a look at NYC.The Mets have decided not to spend money on there team.Attendance is way down and they make less money.The Yankees put money fowards their team there minor league organization and the international market. They have well over 3 million attendance every year (the Mets never d0) and they are the wealthiest organization in the league. Boston another example of spending money to make money. At one point the Mets had one of the highest payrolls in baseball and drew 3 million yearly but since an austerity ownership took control and they’ve starved the organization
He’s up to three Clepto!! Dude’s on fire. Must be a slow day at Kinkos, with it being President’s Day and all….its great when you don’t know someone and make fun of their employment, right Gene?
Kinkos was rebranded about 10years again. please try again.
Hey ghost, you dishonor Don’s good name with such inane banter. Just make sure my fries are fresh and crisp when you serve them to me, alright?
upvoted!!
He’s waited a long time for this, congrats to Sale, that trade was the best thing that could’ve happened for this guy.
Wow the brotherhood!? Now if i go into work tomorrow and demand a higher salary because I haven’t missed a day of work in 6 years. Ill be helping my future parole n prohibition offcers coming up behind me to raise the bar even more some day. Ballplayers really are our HEROS
well said
The “set the bar” attitude is part of the problem. Next year, 2 years, 10 years down the road… yeah, look at what the guys 10 years ago did for the brotherhood. Soaking up awful legacy deals that completely nuked the market for the current crop of FA. They rode the bubble until it popped and now what’s there for them?
It’s not the individual players’ faults for negotiating and accepting what was offered. The MLBPA however, was perfectly happy with the unsustainable course we were on a few years ago. Heck with the future, heck with pre-FA players, heck with minor leaguers… yeah, you go out there and milk every dollar you can for yourself. That’ll help the brotherhood.
Ask Arizona how happy they are with Zeinke’s deal now. If the answer is affirmative, then why are they trying to trade him?
I love Chris Sale, but with his motion and recent injuries, signing him to a long contract would be truly insane. What he COULD do is sign a 2-3 year pact with a very high annual value, which would both be less risk for the Bosox and also boost the average salary numbers that Sale apparently cares about. I personally would love to see him hit the open market so he can come back to the White Sox. 🙂
Did you write this in 2011?
The reason the salaries are so high is the same inflation that drives health care costs through the roof. As soon as a procedure pays x for a y injury, every other y injury is expected to pay x or more. There’s no competition for services through keeping costs down, it’s just an upward spiral. This is standard operating procedure for anything the lawyers get their hands on, and they have their hands on an awful lot of our economy.
I love this post… never thought of it like health care costs. Good comparison
Sadly, I think it’s also to a lesser degree like education costs in terms of outstripping inflation. I know the union would never stand for it but I wonder what would happen if players could negotiate deals for less money with teams they wanted to play for instead of always having to feel they need to have the bidding war process that just drives salaries up endlessly. I know Jason Varitek and Tim Wakefield would announce their intention to stay and then accept a reasonable amount from the team, It take respectful negotiation but I wish there were more players like that.
6 year 165 million deal with a 7th year option at 25 million with a 5 million buy out.
Thinking outside the box here, have a question for Red Sox fans:
What if you made another WS run in 2019 and decided to reload after the 2019 season for 2021 or 2022? That would mean a QO for Sale, Bogaerts and potentially Porcello. Is a reload an option?
If the Sox win in 2019 (they won’t) and I was in charge, I’d be fine w/ Porcello and Bogaerts going elsewhere, give me the picks. However, I’d try to keep Sale. I think he’s more valuable of the 3 to the Sox.
I think you’re right. A QO is the way to go for teams superstar FA’s. The player can accept the QO and then the team can negotiate an extension, if they want to. With the free agent market not what it was over the last few years and players with QO having a reduced market value it would make sense for many players to accept the QO and negotiate after that. Of course the player can reject the QO and take their chances. But the team that issued the QO still can negotiate with the player and will get a draft pick if he goes somewhere alse. Not to mention the luxury tax issue where applicable for teams like Boston.
Also, it creates an incentive for the player to give 100% in 2019 in order to get top dollar in years beyond
The Red Sox have revenues of 453M; and that’s what they ADMIT to having (everyone knows it’s more). The notion that they can’t “afford” to go past the tax is just silly; it makes VERY little difference (actually, it makes a lot less difference to teams than the media thinks). The draft choice penalty? Like the odds of success of a player drafted #30 is SOOOOOOOOOOO much greater than one drafted #40; that’s the silliest “punishment” anybody’s ever seen anywhere.
Henry/Warner are committed to winning (because of winning’s effect on their other properties). They’ll pay the price, either to Sale, or someone else. And Sale knows that. There just aren’t a lot of teams out there who (a) have the money and (b) are willing to spend it. Sale’s BEST bet is to stay where he is.
The draft position does make a difference. 10 spots can change a lot. Now I agree that maybe not so much when it comes to the “success” of the prospect panning out but you also have to remember trade value. A prospect drafted 10 spots higher may be worth more in a trade to help the parent club for a playoff run/push.
Jesus, just stop. Please learn some business basics.
Just because they can afford it, doesn’t mean it’s a smart business decision. There is also the reduction in international spending as well as the draft picks, and the tax.
For example: A $17m 1 year deal for Kimbrel would cost the Sox $28m with the hit for the luxury tax.
That’s not smart business. These owners are not stupid, and they didn’t get to where they are (owning one of the most elite MLB teams) by being stupid.
And why bring Kimbrel into the discussion. He’s history. Stay on topic.
Henry/Werner learned what happened during the “l’affair du Valentine” days; revenues dropped precipitously, nobody watched NESN ( of which they own 80%) .
They’re not going back to those days, if it cost an additional 5M or if it cost an additional 50M. Franchise value and Brand value are just too important to risk it.
Yes, it’s better to win with a 200M payroll than a 250M one; that’s rather simplistic. But the metric is to win, and worry about the cost later. Not every team is in that universe, agreed; but they are. And that’s all that counts. Winning means much more in Boston, financially, than it does in most places; you know how fickle “The Nation” is.
And yes, they are VERY VERY smart businessmen.
But it’s not just about spending the money to win now. There’s the balance of winning now and also being able to sustain that winning for years down the road. I mean they are playing in the same market where the Patriots have had almost a 20 years of sustained success! lol
You really can’t compare the Pats/Bellicheck/Brady to any other phenomena in sports; they’re that unique.
And really, “sustainability” is something teams with far fewer revenues than the Sox have to mouth.
Don’t buy into the Stu Steinberg (Rays owner) fantasy. TODAY counts; tomorow, merely an illusion. There’s too much variance (injury, lower performance) in sports to be THAT predictive.
Yes, you need a plan, but it’s a plan that you have to be ready to change in the ephemeral heart beat. And when you’re sitting on the young core the Sox are sitting on right now, you have to splurge until it hurts, and then splurge some more. Will you at some point pay a price? Sure, you’re gonna die some day too. At least in sports you can limit your exposure.
And Henry/Werner/DD are smart enough to do that.
Just my opinion but any deal for Sales probably needs to start with 5 yrs/$150M = $30M AAV. With maybe even a 6th year vesting option.
Seems like he’s starting to break down. I’m just a focus group of one, but I would not pay him what it’s going to take to secure him for another four to five years. That money could be better spent….
In this type of weird market, and the luxury tax aspect, it might be better for the Red Sox to wait. A healthy Sale is a terrific asset, but you don’t really know what he’s going to be like at the end of the season. And, given the secular changes in the pricing/duration going on, I doubt his value will increase much next season over this.
The game of baseball has now more than ever become a game of meat. They say all the nice things that they have to, but the end game is everyone’s a piece of meat that can easily be replaced. It’s what have you done for me lately and Sale going through another season without an extension can cost him tens of millions of dollars. That’s what mlb stands for these days and it’s quite sad actually.
Meat League Baseball
Every player in every sport is replaceable and is replaced by someone younger eventually. Thats not new and not unique to baseball. Just look at football when guys with contracts are cut, baseball contracts are guaranteed.
God, this guy’s arm motion gives ME arm pain.
The last sentence of the penultimate paragraph… woof
David Price was 30 years old with 31.9 fWAR, 29.2 bWAR, 126 ERA+ and 3.09 ERA in 1,441.2 innings when the Red Sox signed the lefthander to a seven-year, $217 million contract.
Lefthander Chris Sale, who turns 30 next month, has posted 41.8 fWAR, 43.1 bWAR, 144 ERA+ and 2.89 ERA in 1,482.1 innings.
Perhaps the market has changed but Chris Sale will be expensive.
I hope they sign Chris!!!!! He wants Boston, he has the heart!!! The fans LOVE Chris, I just hope DD gets it done n don’t disrespect him by offering money late.
I know almost everybody want s to just resign top players and keep them for years to come but wise teams know the better way to keep performance up, for the majority of players, is to try to get a favorable team friendly deal first then issue a QO and get 100% from the player in his last season before free agency. Teams are better served looking for and developing new younger talent. Smart teams know that. There are all sorts of metrics out there that show that the average player declines after age 33 and that their peak years are at 27 and 28. Just look at a list of player that have recently won a Cy Young or and MVP that are over 33.
Not saying they will only keep one, but who would they and Sox fans want to keep more if they can only pick one? Sale, Bogaerts, or Betts?
Betts is #1 by a mile. For me Bogaerts would be 2 bc he doesnt have a replacement. Im not saying we have another Sale but we do have huge commitments in the rotation already so thats the last place for a huge contract needed.
The one they can get the best financial deal on.
I was wondering the same. Ownership reps say it’s unlikely that they can keep all of the Sale, Bogaerts and Betts triad, and they say they’ve discussed extensions with Sale and Bogaerts. Do they feel they have no chance to lock up Betts long term?
Theyve talked with Betts multiple times and he has chosen to go year to year. I dont think checking on the other two means anything, he is priority 1.
The clouds around Mookie staying long term seem to be darkening.. If this season goes south or Yankees explode it may be in best interest to cut him loose and pile up the farm.. Love the guy but just don’t get that long term feeling from him.
They should be able to sign Betts. As the last 2 winters have shown, there arent unlimited teams bidding up contracts so unless he is hiding some dislike for Boston they’ll make an offer he will choose to stay.
If they can only re-up 2 of the 3, Sale should be the one to let go. An inability to stay strong past Sept. 1 is a glaring weakness. As he ages, that will become even more difficult.
If they lowball Sale, he’ll end up with the Yanks next year. Sox lowballed Lester only to end up overpaying on Price. Offer Sale a legit contract, the guy is as dominant as they come.
I absolutely love Sale and dreamed of him wearing a Red Sox uniform for a long time before it came true. He seems to be a great fit and have the perfect demeanor for Boston. But (there’s always a but, isn’t there?) his delivery is pretty strenuous and he’s really struggled to keep his arm in shape later in the season. The guy works his tail off and you can tell in his voice when he talks about his injuries and late season inconsistencies that he’s determined to find a way to make it happen.
I just think a 7-8 year deal as an extension is risky territory. 5/$150M is about where I think the Sox might feel comfortable and they might not even want to go that high AAV (may be more like 5/$140M). I don’t think Sale takes that deal, but maybe if they throw an opt out in there after year 2, he’ll bet on himself to secure another 5 year deal in 2 seasons.
This contract is much tougher to look at with my bias towards Sale. I have a much easier time finding a value I’m comfortable at for Bogaerts (though I don’t think Bogy would be happy to hear the number). I really don’t know how the Sox could ever replace Sale.
This is the indicator I was looking for that my prior predictions are likely to come true, which is in the best interest of the Red Sox, but a tough pill to swallow. Mookie Betts is the odd man out. That doesn’t mean that the Sox are going to extend Bogy and/or Sale, but look at Werner’s comments: “Keeping all 3 isn’t realistic for the long haul.” So, if you’re considering extensions with Bogy and Sale, that means by default Mookie could get frozen out.
This leads to part 2 of the problem which is DD is not the type of GM/PBO to let Mookie play out his years and take a compensation pick. Which means if Sale/Bogy are extended (and I think either/or is enough to solidify this fate) Mookie may find himself in trade talks either prior to or during the 2020 season. Even as a rental, Betts would bring back the motherload in terms of prospects and could single handedly rebuild a good chunk of the lost prospect depth over the last few seasons.
This is going to get very interesting, very quickly if the Sox get a deal done with Bogy or Sale. As a Red Sox fan, my stomach is in knots and my head is spinning just thinking about it. As a fan of baseball free agency, this might be one of the most intriguing situations to follow in recent memory.
Trade Bogy and sign Mookie to major extension.
Totally. Brian Butterfield will just play short from now on.
The Red Sox have a history of skirting the luxury tax rules (among many other rules). They agreed to a deal with A-Gon in the off-season, and announced it after the start of the season, for instance: which meant the deal didn’t count toward the luxury tax that year.
Guessing they’re trying to do the same thing here.
Do you happen to know if that was one of the many loopholes they closed in the new CBA? kind of how they closed the one that let castillo not count for lux tax – a similar move now wouldn’t let a team skip the tax.
Chances are they could keep two, but not 3 of them. I say let Sale go and keep Betts and Bogaerts. I doubt there’s a scenario where they can keep Sale and Betts
Here inlies my issue with the thought process of it being as simple as “keeping” guys. The Sox are stuck between a rock and a hard place. They can let a free agent go and if they sign a quality free agent, they are likely to lose even better draft compensation then they get back. The Sox have to make a deal somewhere to restock some farm talent so that they aren’t kept out of the major free agent market for a few years.
The only way to circumvent this problem is trading Mookie Betts as a 2020 rental to restock the farm. Then they are going to have to ask themselves some tough questions about which free agent signings will be worth draft compensation for a few years.
The concept of staying the path has diminishing returns and eventually will lead to a really bad looking situation. This is just my opinion and I don’t like like my own opinion on the matter but I’m trying to look at this as neutrally as I can and I don’t see any other out, other then spending their way out of it which doesn’t sound like an option.
Martinez and Porcello are free agents as well, next winter. So one of those two is gone as well. And then, so is JBJ along with Betts.
So I think it would go faster if you just listed the guys on the 2021 RS who own a WS ring. There’s Price, aged 36, there’s Benintendi, starting to make big bucks in arbitration, there’s Eovaldi, making way too much for his career 96 ERA+…anyone else worth mentioning?
On the money sadly. Eovaldi signing I like. #3’s are getting that money these days in big markets. I’m ok with that especially considering the possibility that he could be some relief help as well.
But there is literally nothing in the farm system worth mentioning that’s ready to make an impact in 2019 or 2020 on a big level. They are up against the financial wall. They are outspokenly going to reduce payroll.
Either big moves or big disaster are coming after 2019.
If they keep their core of Betts, Benintendi, Bogaerts, Bradley, Devers (unlikely but lets say the majority) they dont have a lot of gaps. I think Chavis and Dalbec are both pretty close and third and/or first are options. Feltman and Hernandez are quickly approaching in the bullpen. Hopefully Groome comes back healthy.
Why are JBJ and Betts assuredly gone? JD is only gone if he opts out, which he should, and if he does that frees up money to keep our core guys and we got 2 great years relatively on the cheap. Lets say they lose those guys, Vazquez, Pedroia, Devers, Price, Eovaldi, ERod and I’d guess a small group of relievers would still be there. Also, they are very likely to sign about half the group of Sale, Porcello, JD, JBJ, Bogaerts and Betts.
Get rid of long term contracts of player that we don’t need & can replace for cheap. Resign the Core.
Let’s not forget that a Chris Sale fighting for a big contract may not be the same Chris Sale whose pitching with 150M (or whatever) in the bank. Money is far from the ONLY motivator for an athlete, but it’s a significant one. Sale and Bogey in a contract year might be wondrous to watch.
Mookie? A bit of a different story. He’s where I’d spend my money, as he just “sells” better (the All-American nice guy) than Sale (whose a little weird) and Bogey (whose a bit quiet). And, oh, he’s an almost generational talent (tho I admit Sales is also).
Mookie is also one of the first Afro-Americans in Boston who is actually RESPECTED, not just liked. And I live in the general area; anyone who doesn’t think that the racial angle isn’t significant is just silly. Mookie’s as close to a Bill Russell as anyone I’ve seen on the Boston sports landscape. And I’m an old white guy.
I agree with you about Mookie being priority number one. I don’t know if the Sox can afford to extend even one of Sale, Bogaerts or Martinez if they’re as serious about locking Mookie up as they say they are.
It’s clear that Boston fans want to keep this team together. It’s a great team.
But here’s the reality.
These guys have chosen to sacrifice to get to this level.
For everyone that makes it to the top thousands and thousands fail.
And from a owner, GM, scout and manager standpoint many fail.
This is a tough game.
It’s a numbers game.
And then there’s injuries.
So is it any wonder that the trick is to better understand each others motivations?
Each others risks?
I know almost everybody wants to just resign top players and keep them for years to come but wise teams know the better way to keep performance up, for the majority of players, is to try to get a favorable team friendly deal first then issue a QO and get 100% from the player in his last season before free agency. Teams are better served looking for and developing new younger talent. Smart teams know that. There are all sorts of metrics out there that show that the average player declines after age 33 and that their peak years are at 27 and 28. Just look at a list of players that have won a Cy Young or and MVP Award that are over 33. A short list.
So while we’d all like to think that Sale and Betts and Bogarts will be at the level they were in 2018 the reality is each year stands alone.
The risk a team runs is when they sign a Sandoval or a Crawford and they bomb.
That money holds a team back for years.
Did anyone wonder if the disability injury insurance on these high priced players went up prohibitively high recently and may be what’s driving the price of FA’s down?
Older players get more injuries. Players with long term contracts can take their time coming back from injury.
Am i the only one the thinks the red sox should just focus on resigning Mookie first?
After this season the sox have porcello and sandoval coming off the book thats a combined 41 million coming off the books.
Lets say Harper signed a 9/306 at 34 a year? What will mookie want after that 36 a year?
If you take from that 41 mill and add it to mookies 20 already thats 16 more at 9/324
They can use the rest off the 25 million from procello and sandovol to give to sale 15 of that? At 30 a year for 5 years? 5/150
Then use the 10 remaining million to extend bogy at 22 a year for 5 years? 5/110
That is only using the money from porcello and pablo that is not even considering any other players coming off the books
No, I agree Mookie is better than Bogarts and is slightly better than Sale but Mookie has an extra year of arbitration so thats why I say sale and Bogarts are more important to lock up before Betts.