March is just around the corner. If you hadn’t noticed, a fair number of notable players remain unsigned. The very top of MLBTR’s pre-winter top-fifty free agent list remains well-represented on the open market, with a smattering of other notable players also still unsigned. This represents a continuation of the surge of late signings observed last winter, which was the first offseason conducted under the current collective bargaining agreement.
It’s not hard to see that the market is functioning differently under the new CBA. Here’s a listing of the most notable players who’ve yet to sign this year, alongside the recent history of MLB contracts inked during the month of March:
2019
- Remaining candidates for MLB deals include Bryce Harper, Dallas Keuchel, Craig Kimbrel, Gio Gonzalez, Bud Norris, Adam Jones, Martin Maldonado, Ryan Madson, Clay Buchholz, Adam Warren, Tony Sipp, Denard Span, Logan Morrison, Evan Gattis, Matt Holliday, James Shields, Jim Johnson, Jorge De La Rosa, more
- Jake Arrieta — three years, $75MM
- Alex Cobb — four years, $57MM
- Greg Holland — one year, $14MM
- Lance Lynn — one year, $12MM
- Jonathan Lucroy — one year, $6.5MM
- Mike Moustakas — one year, $6.5MM
- Carlos Gonzalez — one year, $5MM
- Neil Walker — one year, $4MM
- Jon Jay — one year, $3MM
- Others: Peter Bourjos, Trevor Cahill, Ryan Flaherty, Yovani Gallardo, Justin Grimm, Dan Jennings, Wade LeBlanc, Ichiro Suzuki
- Derek Norris — one year, $1.2MM
- Others: Dillon Gee, Jared Hughes, Pete Kozma, Daniel Stumpf
- Pedro Alvarez — one year, $5.75MM
- Austin Jackson — one year, $5MM
- David Freese — one year, $3MM
- Alfredo Simon — one year, $2MM
- Franklin Morales — one year, $2MM
- Others: Ross Ohlendorf, Zach Phillips, Ruben Tejada, Carlos Torres
This list is going to get a lot longer over the next couple of years
Something has got to give after 2021. I can’t see this sustaining long term.
I really hope there won’t be a strike. Players have to realize that times have changed, partly due to being in the (hopefully) post-steroids era, and partly due to analytics being so prevalent.
Older players simply will not be paid like they were in the past. I don’t see that as “collusion” amongst owners, just that they have wised up. No more 10 year contracts for 28-32 year old players.
Harper signs, and DK and Kimbrel will as well. The others, well, are they REALLY deserving of a MLB contract? Prob not.
Gio should get an major league deal
Vets coming off lousy or injured seasons are competing with young players making nothing. and in some cases lower their expectations. The Yankees’ signing of Hicks likely doesn’t get done if this was 2016 and he was coming off a career year. Congrats to both Hicks for locking in a lot of money and to the Yankees for showing deals can still be made.
Those very vets are expected and encouraged to mentor the young individuals who may take their jobs some day.
The good ones don’t have to be encouraged.
Interesting to see how many of them went on to have actually good years.
Freese and Moose?
Could make the case that Arrieta was ‘down’ for his standards.
Yeah it is a good argument against teams waiting until March to sign players. A pretty weak list
Definitely a down year for Arrieta, Every statistical category was worse than any of his years with the Cubs
But how much of that was *because* they waited until March to sign and therefore missed at least part of Spring Training.
Then again, I suppose that still supports the argument that teams should be very careful about signing guys who are still free agents in March.
Agreed, I wonder how slow the free agent market will get in 2025.
Big fan of Trevor Chill
Yeah lol. I only noticed it because there was no link.
Well at least I have a new favorite typo.
We do, as well. Thought for a moment it might be a reliever from the Independent League.
Lol
I hope more gets signed.
At this point it wouldn’t surprise me if everyone but “The Big 3” had to settle for MiLB deals.
Gio should definitely get signed when a contending team has an injury.
I could just be a down year because Machado signed late and Harper hasn’t signed yet. I bet a good amount of the others on the list will sign after Harper does because of a sense of urgency.
Almost no teams were competing over Machado and Harper so they shouldn’t have had any significant impact on signing speed of other players.
Yes they have at least some impact. They affected the trade market and a few of the free agents. If Harper had signed early in the off season it is even possible someone like Pollock would have gotten an even bigger deal.
I have no issues personally with it taking longer for some guys to make decisions (people tend to forget that almost assuredly each if the unsigned free agents have had offers, but the PLAYERS just didn’t like the offers). The landscape has definitely changed, but it isn’t all on the teams.
Not true. Teams that don’t sign Harper will have budget money available.
It’s possible that the other unsigned free agents hold out hope that waiting out Machado and Harper will bring in new bidders for themselves from those who are otherwise engaged with the big two. If the phillies miss on both then it is conceivable that they’ll move their “stupid money” onto another area of their team that they otherwise would not have, like to a closer or something else
I think that management of middling teams no longer feels great pressure to sign free agents free agents from their fan base. Lots of fans willing to go with youngsters. That said there are some quality players that should be signed by now
this should show GM’s that paying full price for anyone including Harper this late is plain crazy. if they dont get a deal before camp they should make much less.
How did Lance Lynn have to settle for a one year deal last year and then threw worse than the year he did before and receive a three year deal?
because baseball
Because they look at more things than ERA. He missed a lot more bats in 2018. HIs BABIP was 244 in 2017, which is unsustainable, His strand rate was 79 in 2017, which is unsustainable, His GB rate jumped five pct points for the better in 2018. HR to flyball rate dropped in 2018 His fastball went up 1.4 MPH.
That’s just the tip of the iceberg.
Lynn also missed ST last year and that had a lot to do with the poor bottom line results. He also didn’t have a QO attached. Personally I think Lynn was a tremendous pickup and I’d love to have him on any number of teams at that price. He’s durable except for the 1 TJ and typically a quality #3.
I dunno He was horrible to watch here in MN. Total waste of $. Hard as a fan to watch this “athlete” sign late ,show up fat , and then do nothing in the Twins uniform.
Lynn looked solid for the Yankees in his final 9 starts of the season. His ERA wasn’t flashy at 4.14, but it’s solidly at the back end of a #3 starter range these days. His excellent 2.17 FIP, 10.10 K/9 and 2.32 BB/9 were what got GMs interested.
Jon Daniels. I assume JDGoat does not mean “Jon Daniels, greatest of all time”. Hopefully he makes me feel silly for this…
I’m assuming it’s Josh Donaldson as he is a jays fan. Certainly not Jon Daniels
Cargo one year 3 m ridiculous
All those guys on one team, plus Machado, wouldn’t be a terrible team.
The author made an error. It was $ 5 million not $ 3 million.
Cargo shouldn’t even make 3 million. The Rockies overvalued him last season. When they signed him I was shocked because basically no one else was competing for his services.
Brad Miller and Bryce Harper are the only ones under 30. Teams are probably tired of spending on old breaking down players
Blame Boras. He reps Arrieta, Holland, Moustakas and CarGo from last year, Harper, Keuchel, Maldonado from this year (top available OF, P and C). He likes to wait, he’s open about it and it won’t change until players start leaving him. His strategy used to work, not so much anymore
The Braves need a closer! Why not spend the money and get Kimbell who still has the stuff he had while in Atlanta!
Maybe they offered but he wants more years and AAV than the Braves want to spend
Carlos Gonzalez had a 1 year $5 million dollar contract in 2018, not $3 million.
Our database had that wrong (as did my memory, evidently). Fixing both …
This is a complete embarrassment for the sport.
Why? Could it be that the older vets are overpricing themselves as opposed to the owners being cheap? The owners should not be forced to overpay for a player that is declining in ability because of age just because that player used to be good.
Seems most all of those guys end up being overpaid with the exception of 1 or 2 unlucky guys every year (Moose last year).
Seems like a trend? A combination of a few waiting for the last dollar, and more that the market seems to place less value it. If teams really are looking at the CBT thresholds as hard caps, then agents are going to have to adapt in chasing contract dollars and length.
I don’t understand why no one realizes the market is just doing what it is designed to do. Simply because I am a fan let’s look at the Reds. They were able to get out from under some bad money and realign themselves with manageable one-year contracts. They are also sitting so that 50 or 60 million come off the books next season and they become players in the free-agent Market again next year. It is allowing small or mid-market teams to level the playing field a bit more in the free-agent Market. These teams will most likely never be players for the top three to five free agents, however they can drive the market on say number 10 through 50 Ish.
If anything there should be a hard signing date for all free agents with 31 days MLB service time. Feb.1 pick your team. Boom, done.
Teams would just low-ball free agents because the players have to sign by Feb 1 or they don’t play.
Almost zero reason that the Indians have not signed Adam Jones. Should be really cheap on a 1 year deal by now.
Had Mr. Jones on my fantasy team in 2017. That was reason enough for me.
I have thought the same thing about Baltimore.
The top 4 names on this list is a giant black eye on the sport and current state of the CBA. All 4 of those players would be expected to be major contributors on a playoff team.
Harper turned down 300 million. Keuchel turned down 90 million, I think that number is correct. Kimbrel wants more than Chapman. They have brought this on themselves.
Keuchel turned down $90m? Who was that from? I thought he was seeking about that during the off-season. I’m thinking he’ll get 3yr/$51m or so, unless there is a small bidding war in the 11th hour.
He turned down a 5 for 90 extension. However as I have just now discovered, it was 2 years ago.
I can see both sides of this argument. Players think their being collided against for high value long term deals and teams don’t want to risk signing someone who declines beyond acceptable performance. There are many many more bad contracts written by teams than ones where both sides were rewarded or contracts in which the player was “screwed”.
I can’t say that I blame teams for being conservative.
How much “financial security” do you need in life where a short contract of one or two years at $15-20 million or more per year is unacceptable because the player and agent want a 5-10 year deal?
But what do they all have in common ? Not that good. Arrieta has lost it. Alex Cobb flat out sucks, and all the rest are bums. Harper could be not as good as he was….. possibly. Kimbrel and Kuechel may be washed up. I’m not far off am I???
Man, that 2016 list is brutal – that was just three years ago, and basically all but one of those players are out of baseball.
You’re really reaching on those candidates for MLB deals. Some of them like Holliday will almost certainly only get minor league deals at best.