Nolan Arenado’s extension talks with the Rockies could create a big impact around baseball, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand writes in an exploration of both the short-term and long-term effects of an Arenado deal. Most obviously, an extension would remove arguably the biggest name from the 2019-20 free agent class, which would be a boon to other stars who will be hitting the open market — in particular, Anthony Rendon would see his biggest competition in the third base market disappear. (Of course, Rendon could also ink his own long-term deal to stay with the Nationals.) More immediately, an Arenado extension could also set a new benchmark for Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, should Arenado and the Rockies come to an agreement before Harper or Machado land contracts this winter.
Some stray items from around baseball as we head into the new week…
- Ten of the top names available in the 2019-20 international signing market are profiled by Baseball America’s Ben Badler, all of whom have teams already unofficially attached to their services even though the market doesn’t properly open until July 2. Dominican outfielder Jasson Dominguez and Dominican shortstop Robert Puason are projected for the highest bonuses, each expected to land something around $5MM, with Dominguez linked to the Yankees and Puason connected to the Athletics.
- While the Indians are still looking for outfield help, the team isn’t currently “aggressively pursuing” Adam Jones or Carlos Gonzalez, MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi reports. Both veterans were only moderately productive in 2018, both with below-average offensive numbers (as per wRC+) and Jones with some of the worst defensive metrics (minus-18 Defensive Runs Saved, -14.8 UZR/150) of any center fielder in baseball. That said, both players could still represent an upgrade for Cleveland’s shaky outfield, though it appears the Tribe is checking other options for now.
- Trevor Bauer’s arbitration hearing took place on Friday, Cleveland.com’s Paul Hoynes reports, so details should soon emerge about the outcome. There was a $2MM gap between Bauer and the Indians in exchanged figures, as Bauer’s camp is looking for a $13MM salary in 2019 and the team is aiming for an $11MM salary. This will be the second arb hearing in as many years between the two sides, as Bauer defeated the Tribe in the hearing last winter to land his desired $6.525MM salary for the 2018 season. Like Kluber, Bauer has also been a major figure in trade rumors this offseason. He has one less year of team control than Kluber and a less-extensive track record, though Bauer is also almost five years younger than his rotation mate.
- The Royals have interest in veteran righty Drew Storen, The Athletic’s Jayson Stark reports (Twitter link). Storen didn’t pitch last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in September 2017. The 31-year-old was a key figure in the Nationals’ bullpen from 2010-15, though he suffered through a disastrous half-season stint with the Blue Jays in 2016 before righting the ship after a July trade to the Mariners. Prior to his injury, Storen had a 4.45 ERA, 7.9 K/9, and 2.09 K/BB rate over 54 2/3 innings out of the Reds’ bullpen in 2017. Storen won’t carry a heavy price tag as he makes his return from TJ surgery, making him a target for payroll-conscious Kansas City.
- “Every trade, we’re trying to get back international money,” Marlins president of baseball operations Michael Hill told reporters, including Barry Jackson and Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald. It’s clear that the international market is a cornerstone of Miami’s rebuilding process, and the club has been successful in landing extra money for their int’l draft pool in recent trades with the Astros, Reds, Nationals, and (as part of the J.T. Realmuto trade package) Phillies. These extra funds have already paid dividends, as the Marlins signed highly-touted Cuban brothers Victor Victor Mesa and Victor Mesa Jr. last October.
todd76
I’m surprised Jeter didn’t gift wrap Realmuto to the Yankees like he did Stanton.
jordan4giants 2
I hope Nolan and the Rox get the extension done. There are certain players that seem to embody a francise and he is one of those guys. Be great to have him and Story together another 4 years (assuming Story does not get extended)
jorge78
Not going to happen…..
New normal…..
johnrealtime
I mean unless it does. I know the Rockies aren’t the biggest spending team but they can certainly sign Nolan if they want to. I’m sure he’d be happy with the certainty of an extension after watching the free agent market the last two years.
I’m not exactly putting money on it, but the definitiveness of “not going to happen” is idiotic
Buhnersideburns
Given the year Bauer just came off, I felt the Tribe should have moved him at this peak value…. He has already stated he’s not looking for an extension and is happy just playing year to year…. something along the lines of a trade to the Padres for Renfroe, a blocked Josh Naylor and a decent arm, would’ve seemed to make sense.
its_happening
Agreed. Kluber is the established ace under contract. Bauer’s the guy they should have been looking to deal. With Cleveland it’s always about the money which is not the best reason to move a guy.
hockeyjohn
The arm would have to be one of the top ones as Renfroe has been disappointing and Naylor has defensive concerns. Two years of Bauer would require more than a decent arm.
hiflew
As a Rockies fan, I am obviously hoping for a Nolan extension. But as a fan doing my best to take away my bias, with the way the FA market has been the past couple of years, it would make sense to.
People have been waiting years for this FA class and the top 2 guys are still unsigned and Spring Training is not that far away. Now Harper, arguably the top FA since Pujols, is possibly going to be signing a short term deal. (Not that I think it will happen, but just the possibility of it happening seemed far-fetched not that long ago.) Teams are just not willing to dole out Pujols type FA contracts, BUT they have shown the willingness to sign their own players to sizable extensions. It might make sense for Arenado now.
Ejemp2006
Arenado extension 7/140? Then the Rox could still do a compete without too much contract weight hold down.
brodafett
7 years 140? Keep dreaming. Arenado just made 26 million in arbitration for 2019. Why in the world would he make less than arbitration thinks he deserves? Also, unlike Harmer and Machado Arenado has no questions or concerns when it comes to teams signing him. With Harper teams see his one great year surrounded by mostly good but not great seasons. He is inconsistent and that probably scares teams into signing him for a ransom. With Machado you have a guy with an attitude, that doesn’t hustle and plays dirty at times. Arenado is a stud and has been consistently good every year. He is an awesome defensive third basemen which is a premium defensive position. Hasn’t had any incidents to call his character into question. Teams will line up for Arenado next off season barring either a disastrous season stat wise, or injury wise. Heck even the tight wallet cards are in love with Arenado and will probably make an offer for him. They like but are not in love with Harper enough to actually make him an offer, but it’s well known they are very high on Arenado. As are the Yankees and most every other baseball team. So, if you think Arenado is going to sign a 7 year 140 million dollar contract then keep dreaming. That’s only 20 million a year. Heck heyward makes that much and he can’t hit a beach ball lol
baines03
Arenado does come with a big question mark: home/road splits away from Coors. While I personally think this narrative is BS, it’s still a reason for some teams to shy away.
thinkblech
Players who leave Colorado have out-performed their road numbers that they posted as a member of the Rox. It has to be tough, seeing nastier stuff on the road than people are capable of throwing at your home park.
Senioreditor
.263 and an OPS 200 points lower on the road is not BS.
davidcoonce74
I think this narrative around Machado is getting tired; he made one off-hand comment in an interview about not running out every ground ball, and somehow this equates to him “not hustling” or being a bad teammate or having an attitude or whatever. There’s no real evidence teammates don’t like playing with him and his on-field numbers that we can actually measure (taking extra bases, infield hits, etc) belie the notion that he plays lazy. He stole 14 bases in 16 tries last season, that isn’t indicative of a guy who is just “taking it easy”. Harper had a strange defensive season but the bat is elite – he was the 18th-best hitter in baseball last season by OPS+ or wRC+ or any other metric you want to use besides his fluky low BABIP.. He has never been a bad defensive player before, and some speculate that he was not playing “all-out” in 2018 because of a fear of injury, plus he was forced into centerfield way too much in 2018; I wouldn’t look at one year of bad defense as evidence of anything except a bad defensive season.
nonadhominem
Again- what about being the 18th best hitter entitles Harper to the largest contract in MLB history that he is seeking.
Grizalt
Nolan’s questions/concerns are his road stats. They paint a picture of a good-not-great player.
Grizalt
The low BABIP is a concern for Harper because he kept hitting into the shift. They aren’t going to stop shifting on him unless the shift is banned or he learns to beat it.
Ejemp2006
9th inning WS game 4, Machado hits to BoSox 3B Devers, who has hard time fielding it. Running down the line, Machado blows huge bubble gum bubble and is thrown out on close play.
6th inning WS game 3, Machado hits ball to wall. Pimps the hit. Jogs to first instead of run for easy double.
In the World frickin Series. Not isolated magazine quote. “Believe someone when they show you who they are.”
alien
try 7/ 230
xXabial
Baur had a break thru season however his career whip doesnt constitute him making 13 mill. 1 more break out season may justify his case.
thinkblech
His WHIP? lol
jorge78
Let big A go then sign him to a short deal when the market freezes until March 2020.
The owners have spoken!
By not speaking!
brodafett
Yes, please let him go lol then you will never see him in a Rockies jersey again! You realize that Harper is inconsistent and only decent at defense right? He just hit what .249? You wonder why teams don’t want to give him 10/300+? If he was consistent like Arenado is he would have been signed a while ago. Teams are more willing to give him a shorter contract so they are not saddled with a long contract for a guy that has only had one great season in his hyped career. As for Machado he screwed himself out of money by having an attire, saying that he isn’t a hustle kind of guy, and playing dirty. Arenado does not have any of their negatives, and the market will be more favorable for him because of that. Plus Harper does not play a premium defensive position. With Nolan teams get a consistently great hitter that plays a premium position and plays it at a gold glove level. So, please do let him hit free agency so another team that actually wins titles and playoff series can sign him.
Solar Flare
Sure, Harper hit just .249 last year, but he also hit 34 home runs and had 100 runs batted in, which ranked 7th and 8th in the National League respectively.
nonadhominem
So does 7th and 8th merit the largest contract in MLB history that he thinks he deserves?
IMHO, no.
Harper has been a very good but not great player, injury prone and inconsistent from year to year.
He needs to stop deceiving himself.
Bruin1012
You can’t just ignore Arenado’s Home/Road splits and call him consistent. He has been consistently great at home and consistently better then average but not great offensively on the road. Any team that signs him has to be aware of those facts. His defense is great everywhere but there is a question in any decent GM’s mind of is this guy really worth 30 million a year his road splits say no he isn’t.
jorge78
Mark P: Why does MLBTR keep pushing these big money contract dreams when the owners have spoken by not speaking?
Welcome to the new normal…..
Norm Chouinard
Access to the players is controlled by the agents. The agents and the owners both exploit the fan. If that’s a problem and it is for the majority of Main Street and the poor, go to HS, College, and MiLB games which are much more affordable and are great experiences.
ronnsnow
Indians should sign Josh Harrison. He plays a pretty solid LF, or he could play 3B/2b with Jose Ramirez/Jason Kipnis going to the outfield.
canocorn
— “There was a $2MM gap between Bauer and the Indians in exchanged figures” —
Worth the extra $2M if Bauer swears off drones.
Boogaloo
Yankees to sign top rated international free agent, again.
I thought the whole point of the new system was to prevent them from doing these things?
Seems like the whole goal was to keep salaries down and not to stop the evil empire at all, congrats to all the idiots that fell for it and just cost poor kids more money while billionaires get richer, lol.
driftcat28 2
You know just a couple of years ago they were capped at 300k bonuses right? Meaning they weren’t allowed to sign top international talent. Then after a couple of years they were allowed to give high bonuses again. Same rules apply to every team…
Jbigz12
Great comment again boogaloo.its like the 29 other baseball teams didn’t start off with a 5 million dollar pool just like NY?
teachdad46
I believe Bauer has one MORE year of team control than does Kluber, not v.v.. Given their age difference it still gives Bauer some additional heft on his side of any bargaining.
baumann
No. Bauer is controlled 2019 and 2020 via arbitration. Kluber can be controlled through 2021 via very affordable club options.
nuschler22
The other international free agents will be looking for that Victor Victor Mesa Mesa Sr Jr money money.
Mrtwotone
Underrated comment lol
Z-A 2
If Arenado wanted to make the HOF some day, he’d NEVER EVER EVER leave Coors field. He should petition for at 162 games to be played there.
iverbure
Larry Walker just read your comment and asked why he didn’t get the call this year.
its_happening
Funny, could have sworn Larry played in Montreal to begin his career. Whereas Arenado started his career in Colorado. At least Todd Helton would have been a better reference. Although Helton’s first full year happened when he was turning 25. Arenado’s first year was 22.
Thanks for playing #GoutsEyes.
Cam
Iverbure’s comment is in regards to time in COL hurting his HoF credentials – it’s a well spoken about point. Nothing to do with where he was beforehand.
I’m not going to thank you for playing – you contributed nothing.
its_happening
Cam….Walker gets in with 3000 hits or 500 homeruns, Colorado or not. Arenado gets one of them he’ll be in the Hall of Fame. Again, Colorado or not.
I guess Cam is your burner account, Iver? Nice work. So much for contributions. No fun that you don’t know how to play. Or can’t. I’ll choose the latter.
MarlinsFanBase
As a Marlins fan, I’m loving the direction we’re taking. We are in full rebuild. We have prospects in place. We are seeking more on the international market. We have an ownership that seems to have a plan that even Mike Hill isn’t allowed to do much in. And somehow it seems that having owners with big egos like Jeter and Michael Jordan (along with their championship histories) is a good thing, even though as a Marlins and Heat fan I couldn’t stand these two as players. However, if they bring that championship pride to the Marlins that they had as players, I’ll certainly love them as owners.
As for the Marlins and history, I do know one thing. Every one of MLB’s expansion franchises and the long standing franchises with 3 or less championships need to step up because, if the Marlins get championship number 3 before any of them, when the Marlins are being bashed by the national media as a franchise, what would it say about all of the other expansion franchises if the Marlins lead the way in championships by an expansion franchise (currently tied with the Mets, Royals, and Blue Jays with 2, while existing far less years) and have tied or surpassed many long standing franchises in championships? Seems that a team that does that is not as bad as the other franchises, or that the narrative is fictional or agenda based or both.
With this all said…Go Marlins! Let’s get to number 3!
Mrtwotone
Well said
Wahoo What a Finish!
The Indians not pursuing outfield help is the definition of insanity. I’ve never seen a team with so much talent in the infield and starting rotation take such a white flag approach in the off season.
kyblue50
The international signings should be done just like the draft with Worse First.
iverbure
Umm it is. The worst your record the more money you have to spend. Forcing players to sign with teams they don’t want to doesn’t sound very player friendly.
leftcoaster
So we endured the 2019 free agent hype hysteria for a couple years and it came and went with a whimper. With Harper and Machado’s hype falling flat, the pundits have turned to the next class.
Cam
Depends what pundits you’re talking about. Most people who understand why Free Agency has turned glacial, are concerned with talking about exactly that. The others, move on to the next headline hot take.
leftcoaster
Enlighten us with your take on why free agency has been “glacial”. I, for one, am on the edge of my seat.
petrie000
Teams have decided en masse they’d rather be ‘good enough’ and maximize profits instead of spending the money to be great even if they can afford to do so.
minoso9
The Rockies have several top infield prospects, but I want to see the Rox ownership dig deep for Arenado. He wants to play in Colorado and has done a great job there the last few years. I am wondering about the veteran Parra. He is a free agent and a good hitter who can play all outfield positions (not too good in CF). He could help the Rockies again or some other team as a reserve or starter.
pjmcnu
During the next CBA negotiation, the MLBPA should demand an end to non-arb eligible team control (beyond the first season you appear in – league min for that), keeping 3 years of arbitration control, and the ability to compare your achievements to anyone, not just your classmates. If your most valuable years are your youngest, that’s when you should be able to make salary commensurate with your ability. If teams are no longer going to pay for “past performance”, then they have to pay for current performance, and not at discount rates. They will now have the ability to save money at the back end of players’ careers – which they are doing already – instead of the beginning. They just can’t save by rule at the beginning, and by inclination at the end.
leftcoaster
Why do you believe owners “have to pay for current performance?” When was the last time you saw a player give money back when they failed to perform commensurate with their contract. Damn Bernie Sanders youth.
its_happening
I’ll have you know ballplayers have given back plenty at the local peeler bar, thus showing strong support for feminism.
yank234571415
Just a thought. What if the Yankees traded Stanton to Dodgers (they were his first choice since that is his hometown) for Bellinger. Yankees then sign Harper. One big contact for another and a first baseman who can also play outfield. Takes care of too many right handed hitters in lineup and who is playing first base. This is an awesome lineup.
Hicks SH cf
Judge R rf
Harper L lf
Sanchez R c
Bellinger L 1b
Andujar R 3b
Gregorius L ss (when he returns)
Voit R dh
Torres R 2B
Think this is a possibility?. Stanton gets to go home and Harper goes to the team he wants.