The Padres stole headlines this week when they signed one of the game’s elite players, third baseman/shortstop Manny Machado, to a 10-year, $300MM guarantee. But it appears the Machado pickup will be the Padres’ lone massive splash in free agency this year.
While San Diego has at least considered pursuing free-agent superstar Bryce Harper, the team’s talks with agent Scott Boras have focused more on still-unemployed left-hander Dallas Keuchel than Harper, Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin of The Athletic report. Keuchel would be a noteworthy addition in his own right, but the chances of the pitcher-needy Padres signing him aren’t great, according to Rosenthal and Lin, who note it’s a “longshot.” That jibes with a report from Jon Heyman of MLB Network, who tweeted Saturday that the Padres “don’t see a fit” for Keuchel.
If the Padres aren’t going to seriously pursue Harper, who may join Machado in collecting a $300MM-plus guarantee, it seems to make it all the more likely he’ll head to Philadelphia. The Phillies – who just had at least their second in-person meeting with Harper – have been seen as the favorites to sign him throughout the offseason, for one. Moreover, it doesn’t appear there are other teams champing at the bit to meet the six-time All-Star’s asking price.
The Nationals, Harper’s only team to date, may have “moved on”; the White Sox, despite their clear weaknesses in the outfield, reportedly aren’t going to bid on Harper; and the Giants, despite their own outfield issues, don’t seem willing to give the former NL MVP a long-term contract. Barring a change of heart from one of those clubs or the emergence of an aggressive mystery team(s), then, Harper to the Phillies still appears to be the most probable conclusion to this protracted derby.
Unlike Harper, the 31-year-old Keuchel has hardly dominated headlines since last season ended. Even though Keuchel’s a onetime AL Cy Young winner with an excellent track record, there is nothing to suggest anyone has pursued him with much gusto in recent months. Of course, he and Boras may not have helped the hurler’s cause with an exorbitant early winter asking price – reportedly six to seven years and between $25MM and $30MM. Since the offseason began, Keuchel’s next contract has always seemed a solid bet to fall well short of that price in terms of both length and dollars.
In the end, it’s possible Keuchel will head back to Houston, where he has spent his entire professional career since it selected him in the seventh round of the 2009 draft. Not only could the Astros use another proven starter, but owner Jim Crane suggested this week that the team hasn’t closed the door on re-signing Keuchel.
Well, no other competition for the Phillies, so they will have to offer him $525M for 15 years /sarcasm
Still don’t want him and now I think we will be stuck with him.
Obviously Boras is using whatever he’s getting out of the Phillies to try and use for leverage. If I’m them I tell him look this is the offer, and if you don’t like it GFY.
CalcetinesBlancos – I kinda wish they would have done that the first go around
I think you are right GFY.
Boras has had a bad offseason thus far.
Agreed. His list of unsigned free agents is past embarrassing. He will get his money for Harper, but the mid tier stars he represents are getting hosed for the 2nd offseason in a row.
Yet, the Boras Corporation will still pull down $105M+ in commissions this year.
Amen. Phillies need to have a back bone. So far Harper’s best offer was the Nats $300MM offer and I don’t see anyone beating that but the Phillies. And even then, the Nats may not offer that amount now that they have signed other free agents.
330 10. He’s worth that. Any more and I’m not thrilled.
He is not worth that.
He’s NOT CLOSE to worth that. Go look up his numbers, then look at the numbers for JD Drew. They’re remarkably similar. Harper is a GOOD player but he’s only had 1 season where he was even the best player on his team and you wanna hand him 33 mill a season? LOL
Don’t count out Yankees. No, because “Bad contracts”?
If Stanton doesn’t opt out:
Yankees would owe him, 7 years $187M
Hardly an albatross.
Ellsbury goes away in two years, if not this year.
Good point. Not to bad considering how useless Ellsbury has been for the vast majority of his contract. Another Scott Boras speciality.
Please, please, please smell the coffee. I mentioned before that Machado and Harper will not be signedby the Yankees.
Remember when Boras got Baltimore to outbid their original bid for Chris Davis even though there was no other fit for him. He probably thinks he can do it again which is absurd.
That’s why Boras gets the big bucks! I don’t know how teams can’t see through him. I really don’t.
Me neither. It’s like the old movie Groundhog Day with high priced free agents. Player signs a lucrative long term contract and all of the fans rejoice. Dreams of a World Series ensue. A few years later the dreams have turned into screams. Team is struggling and the reality of having a bloated contract on the books is weighing down the team from moving forward. Fans are bummed and there is no end in sight. Team starts facing reality and scrambles to find someone willing to take this albatross of a contract off their hands. Frustration sets in as it becomes clear that the team will have to eat a significant portion of the players contract in order to move it. Not only that the return will be meager. The GM is ridiculed by fans and the media alike, all while being placed on the hot seat.
History keeps repeating itself. It’s almost like clockwork with these long term mega contracts…
That statement is on the money.
You misspelled fan.
P.S, If it’s on purpose, that’s worse.
Saw it. Ignoring you.
Being stuck with Bryce Harper isn’t really a bad scenario. He’s an excellent baseball player
SuperSinker – He is a good baseball player. I had enough “streaky” with past players i.e. Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth, etc. I saw enough of Harper in the past few years to know there is a lot of streakiness.
If he proves me wrong, I will come on here and admit it, but I am standing by what I am saying.
Heck, at this point, I am hoping Xabial is right on the Yankees (though I don’t think so). Heck, I would even shut my pie hole with $187M at 7 years,
But not a 300m ballplayer
The same argument was made about Hosmer last year. Before that the same argument was made about Chris Davis. People keep defending a player and the reasons why he is worth crazy money. History will repeat itself again. Boras keeps finding a new sucker every offseason…
True. He is an asset for any team that gets him, but is he worth the price point that he’s demanding? The price point is the statement which says that he is the ultimate face of the team.
Padres need Kuechel more than they need Harper.
If they wait until next off season then Rick Porcello will be a FA. he has thrown right at, or over 200 innings the last 10y and has a Cy Young season way back. Imagine he’ll be looking at a lot less than the 20m annually he’s currently making, plus his agent is reality based (Excel), which works in a world of reality, not wishful thinking as does Boras.
Wouldn’t shock me if Porcello ended up with around 4/50-60m next offseason.
I’m betting 5 years, $80MM. He’s a workhorse who can produce quality innings, will succeed in a big ballpark due to his fly ball tendencies, and there’s always an outside chance for another Cy Young Award.
“and the Giants, despite their own outfield issues, don’t seem willing to give the former NL MVP a long-term contract” I don’t think this is entirely true. They originally expressed their interest in a short term deal, but even after Harper’s agency publicly announced that he isn’t interested, the Giants have still been linked to Harper for the past week and a half. If they do not want to give Harper a long-term contract, I highly doubt that they would even talk about the situation, but even after Harper said he wouldn’t sign a short term deal, the organization has still said that they are “trying” to get Harper, and reporters such as Heyman have linked SF to Harper for the past week.
They are mentioning SF because if they don’t include them, there is no one to include. And honestly, SF might even be in it if Harper feels he’d rather have the higher yearly salary than longterm commitment at a lower cost
So right now it appears Harper might have to decide – 10 years but possibly under the 300 mark from Philadelphia, or a contract maybe in the 4 year range but at a much higher AAV from San Francisco.
He’s already made that decision. He shut the door on any possibility of a short term contract, he expressed that he wanted a long-term contract only. What I was trying to say, if it wasn’t clear, was that the Giants have constantly been said to still be in the Harper race, comments from the organization have confirmed this to be true. Why are the Giants, the team “not willing to offer a long term contract” to the player “only willing to accept a long term contract” still in the race whilst teams like the Chisox are not? Yes, the White Sox have stated that they aren’t going to meet Harper’s asking price, but haven’t the Giants done the same thing if they aren’t willing to offer a long term contract? I think that the Giants have intentions to offer a long term contract, or else you would not see them mentioned.
Because they feel, and have good reason to believe, Harper is going to be insulated by the contract from Philadelphia. If he wasnt, he probably would have signed by now. All he’s done at this point is wait around to the point he’s asking them to bid against themselves.
In that case, San Francisco knows it’s the only one offering the AAV he feels he deserves. If he’s that insulated by Phi, and that confident in his skills moving forward, then they are offering him the path to a higher dollar earnings over the next 10 years (in the form of taking the huge AAV now over a few, then signing another huge contract in a couple years)
What Harper originally wanted is rather meaningless at this point considering there is no one willing to offer it. So now he needs to decide which compromise is in his best interest – SF’s or Phi’s
I get what ur saying, but obviously mlb teams dont care what he wants, or what he and scott boras say. If ur offers r 5/175 million or 7/210 million, then those r the choices. It doesnt matter that u want 10/300-330 , if its not there. U take a, b, or sit out and make nothing.
Yes. It is frustrating for me as well that the Giants are consistently discounted as viable suitors. Perhaps it’s because they’ve publicly downplayed their chances of landing Harper while the Phillies have been pretty open about their optimism in signing him. I tend to prefer the Giants’ face-saving method. But in any event no one really knows what’s going through Harper’s mind and behind the scenes, though I think it’s fair to say that the Giants are prepared to make a long-term offer.
In that case why not take a 5 year deal from the Yankees, who I’m sure would be open to offering that?
I dont think yanks r interested, and i dont blame them. They made it pretty clear they were more interested in manny and were leary of him. I wouldnt have given manny over 7/210, and wouldnt go over 5/100 for bryce. Take a look at that war since he won mvp award
Yankee fan here. Yankees can and should be in on Harper. They’re not though, and won’t be. I wish, but get over it. It never was.
You just killed your argument by listing Heyman’s “reporting” as proof. Next time try to rely on someone that isn’t a walking punchline.
Wonder how low the Phillies offer will be now considering not a single other club is willing to offer him anywhere near the tears/amount he is asking for?
Please Padres, DO NOT sign Keuchel. He is no ace, which is exactly what you need. You have plenty of pitching on the way through the minors, including potential ace guys. Wasting money on Keuchel at this point in time, is a terrible idea. Pass. Hard pass.
Agree
Please Padres sign Harper LOL. All joking aside, the Phillies would be better with Keuchel and the Padres with Harper though. I agree that Keuchel is not the ace, but we already have Arrieta and I think they are at similar points in their career, which is good enough with Nola and the kids. I think we need a Keuchel type more than Harper anyway.
I think Keuchel and Kimbrel both need to come to the realization that they’ve been unreasonable in their contract demands….spring training is here, fellas!
Lol. I’m willing to bet you any amount you have (or $10, whichever happens to be lower) that none of those potential aces in the Padres system will ever come close to Keuchel’s level of achievement.
True or not you don’t pay Keuchel for what he’s done already but what he will do
Well put. AAV isn’t the hold up in the market it’s the length they are asking that’s keeping them unsigned. How do you project performance over the course of 7-10 years? You can go by past performance, age, body type, etc… but I don’t care how it’s done nothing gets you close to an accurate prediction over 10 years. Imagine McCutchen on the market at 26. Who wouldn’t want him right? Anybody willing to give up 25-30 million for even a one year deal now? It’s smart to assume drop off on the back end of a deal like that but what if it’s a lot sooner 2,3, or 4 years down the road? Some teams just won’t go there and I don’t blame them
McKenzie Gore and Luis Patino are going to be future ace pitchers for the Padres. Those guys are another breed I swear. Idk how you can be so negative about the top ranked prospects in all of baseball, these guys are the real deal.
Baez has great stuff too!
Baez has a great fastball. He does not yet have great “stuff”. His secondary offerings are very much a work in progress. He was able to get by with fastball gas in the low minors. Didn’t work so well at AA in 4 games with a 7.36 ERA….. in terms of complete pitcher, even Cal Quantrill is more advanced.
This is where some Padres fans need to stop just following the prospect rankings and pinning their hopes on it, if they don’t actually know about the players. Baez does not have great stuff, certainly not st the level of gore/patino. Baez has been a fastball dominating pitcher in the low minors…… this season (much like how Quantrill fell out of the top prospect rankings at AA), this season we will see more about Baez’ “stuff”. First taste (although a small sample), was not great. Hopefully his stuff improved and is more consistent. Can’t blow it by or miss location at the higher up levels all the time.
Baez: Back problems at the beginning of the season. Missed the first month. Upon his return, delivery stiffened up. Velocity went down and changeup disappeared. He dropped completely out of three of the four Top 100 lists. But, as Kiley McDaniel said in his Fangraphs chat the other day, if his back problems disappear he’ll shoot back up.
Quantrill: More troubling trend. He has not shown a good enough fastball and command. Somewhere between his first minor league season (2016) and last year something has gone missing. I saw him pitch probably 8-9 times last year, and he ever looked right.
Baez, morejon, gore (amongst others) all dealt with injuries last year which effected their results, as well as their development. That’s why I’ve consistently cautioned some of the “prospect honks” (not that that’s a bad thing, just seen that term used for you before spack haha), that the competitive timeline might be further off than people think. Gore needs to pitch a full season above low a ball before anybody can even dream of seeing him at petco. Baez/morejon need to get through a year without injuries hampering their development, because neither of them are ready either. I keep hearing 2020…. but I really think it’s more realistic to envision 2022 being the time. Tatis, Urias…. they’ll have growing pains in the majors as well. All these prospects aren’t just going to light the world on fire their rookie seasons. Even paddack, who you know I was high on spack from our talks on the Padres page, but even Paddack has some major growth still. He only started 7 games above A ball, and his breaking pitch hasn’t quite developed yet. He was primarily a fastball/changeup guy with PLUS command/control. He’s gonna need a third pitch to come along if he is going to be anything above a #4 or #5 type starter. Caution caution caution is all I’m stressing with some of these guys…. they are not just around the corner. There will be time still in the minors, and then more struggles in the majors. It won’t happen next year fellas.
Separate note, spack, did they stop allowing discussion threads on mlb pages?? I’ve noticed you can’t comment on Padres pages anymore for discussion. Or is that just me?
7 years with a career era at 3.66… two of the years north of 5.0 ERA, one year north of 4.5 ERA, last year at 3.74, and three years of dominance with a sub-3.0 ERA. I’d say that’s fairly attainable for at least one of gore, patino, morejon, Baez, Paddack, Allen, etc. For that matter….. Lucchesi and Lauer both just had better rookie years, than Keuchel had in his first two seasons (no, I’m not saying those two are better than Keuchel). Just pointing out that he’s had three very good years, and then been average or below average. It’s not that lofty of a dream to match Keuchels career output. In short, I will take that bet.
kwflanne — I agree. I think the Pads need to accept that they may have to do a little bit of an overpay on trading for an ace and possibly a #3 caliber starter. Maybe the time to do that is this coming offseason (or even possibly during this season if they can swing a deal with a team that decides to go for a rebuild instead of contention).
And why sign a free agent pitching stud when they can wrangle away a better pitcher for half the price via trade?
Why wrangle away a better pitcher at half the price when you can just pay for Keuchel? No trades needed. Save your prospects for when it’s time to go all in.
Padres should only want Keuchel if he comes at a good discount. To me, a good contract would be 4 years / $100MM. High AAV but low commitment in years.
I was thinking the same thing I’m thinking more of a trade for Trevor Bauer
Harper to Cleveland!
Lmao
So Machado Harper and Keuchel all Padres. I heard this from great San Diego sportscaster Champ Kind
They will not get Harper and keuchel. Maybe Harper but not both.
I don’t know who did it but thank you for the downgrade.
Very curious what Keuchel is holding out for. If I’m him I would be looking for a two year deal with a huge annual value at this point.
According to Boras, Keuchel is holding out for 6 or 7 years at between $25-$30M annually. As comical as that might sound, I’m not joking. That’s what his ‘super agent’ is dead set on getting for him.
Would the Padres give up Quantrill and Espinoza for Stroman after a few good starts to the regular season? Seems like a natural landing place for that loud mouth. His days in Toronto are numbered regardless, only a matter of time.
That probably would depend on how they view Espinoza at this time. I don’t think they would object to moving Quantrill in a deal for Stroman, but if Espinoza is throwing like his old self that may be a sticking point
Stroman too close to FA
Loud mouth? Just because an athlete has a personality, in a sea of dullards, doesn’t mean he’s a loud mouth.
You’re absolutely right. Stroman still does have a big mouth. Flaps the toilet a little too much!!
Not Espinoza
The Padres need to pass on both Harper and Kuechel. Gio Gonzalez would be a better fit for the reasons that he wouldn’t require an overpay like the other two, and could be signed to a shorter term deal.
agreed. the Padres could use a solid veteran arm or two to help mentor some of this young talent we keep hearing about
Boras is a Clown Show and he really ought to start his own league
Then he would have to pay the salaries that he wants for his beloved players
Giants or Dodgers
neither stand to gain anything by talking about it, so we haven’t heard anything more than there is interest.
The time for stupid money has passed, the Phillies obviously aren’t comfortable with either Harper or Machado
Every time I’ve seen Farhan Zaidi asked a question about Harper, he seems to try to talk as little as possible about it, but never shuts the door down on the possibility of it. That to me signals that they are trying to sneakily sign him, or else they would have announced that they weren’t interested and would rather have signed a guy like Adam Jones by now.
Seems like how Machado went down. First one of these two to step up with 10+ years at $30m wins. Can’t blame either for waiting out a chance to go less
I think right now they are talking about opt outs and escalators. More likely that then a bidding war.. When they hammer it out we’ll get the announcement.
Will he get a straight up deal like Manny got or will he have to settle on escalators??
Yes, no point in talking a big game and then coming up short. That’s a bad look.
I don’t think Harper is comfortable with the Phillies
Harper spent a week in Philly one night.
Holiday Inn?
Middleton’s private helicopter, which was stored inside his private jet, left him at the Harpers’ door unannounced. Mrs. Harper, with phone in her hand dialing 9-1-1, was heard shouting, “without offers of $400 million, we’re prepared to hold out until Bryce is 30”.
Could you imagine Harper deciding to sign with Philly for almost the rest of his career even though it’s apparent he doesn’t want to be there? Sounds like they’re his lone option and Boras would kill him if he settled for less. Would hurt his pride big-time.
It’s not apparent.. This is Boros we’re talking about.. He may not be satisfied with any offer he’s received so far.
Let them stay FA. Baseball does not revolve around 1 – 300k player. Are they talented yes, are they worth handcuffing a team for 10 yrs..Nope!! We had spring training baseball today with those FA still not participating….
If I’m Philly I take $5m off my offer to Harper for every day he doesn’t sign.
As for the Padres, I’d rather them target a RH starter. They already have a ton of lefties in Lucchesi, Lauer, Strahm if they use him as a starter and Allen. Best RH starter on the market rn is probably Buchholz.
Would not be surprised is Keuchel signs for around 3/45 – 15 a season – back-loaded (12, 15, 18) incentives to reach 50 based on innings pitched.
Another Moustakas player. Gee Mike here is $45,000,000 for 3 years. RU kidding me I would rather have $16,000,000 for 2. Idiots
The fact that Moustakas hasn’t changed agents is past baffling…
Harper should tell them to eff off and retire.
This is the stupidest comment I’ve seen. Like ever. On any part of the internet. You should feel a sense of pride in that level of idiocy.
You seem like a fun person
It’s obviously a joke calm down
How about $280 million and the William Penn statue gets knocked down in favor of one for Harper… Or maybe he wants a Citizens Bank Park concession stand job for his wife.
Even ‘ol Benny Franklin wouldn’t want to live in Philly these days.
Slightly below average RFer with declining offensive output… Harper’s not worth more than $300M. If the Phillies hold out, they may get him at true market value.
Keuchel makes more sense for the Phillies than Harper does. 58 GB% 2016-18, in a park that you need to keep the ball down. And a hole at #2/3 SP. If they dont get Harper I’d spend money on pitching. In general I’d rather trade for pitching and spend on bats, but there isnt much left to pick from and money will be burning a hole in their pocket. 20-25M to Keuchel doesnt prevent them from chasing Arenado, Betts, or Trout.
They can get platoon Quinn vs LHP, William’s vs RHP I’d be okay with that for a year. Altherr cant hit for avg against either and his powe numbers arent enough to keep him, time to move on. Would be fine with CarGo on a 1 yr deal to platoon as well vs RHP.
I would be highly in favor of a Kluber/Bauer trade of they did in fact landed Harper.
Harper shocks everyone and signs with Royals.
The royals won’t spend 300 mill in payroll in 10 years, let alone on one player.
If the Padres want Harper he’s probably available for 6 years $150 mil. He should have taken the big offer from Washington. Now he’s effed.
Harper in 4 of his 6 seasons with the Nationals is “Mr. April”. His batting average & home runs outputs are outstanding; then in early May he starts one of his many hitting and power outages that rule the rest of the season. Take away April, and he is a .230 hitter the rest of the season. He cannot lay off the 2 strike curve ball thrown near his feet, nor the outside fastball on/off the edge of the corner. Also, as the season progresses, he cannot seem to catch up to upper velocity fastballs. What he will bring to the Phillies, is 3-4 gargantuan home runs a year that will excite the fans, followed by long hitting droughts that will frustrate the most patient among them..
As a Mets fan I can tell you that I’ve never been afraid of Harper in a big spot. Murph? Yup, he KILLED us. But Harper? He’s just SO overrated.
Bora$$ has a long history of being an extremely effective agent. Arrogant as all get out, but effective. Have to say I have enjoyed the beating his clients have taken in the free agent market the past two seasons. Bora$$ has been too arrogant and stubborn to adapt to the changing market. He can complain about the market, the number of teams rebuilding, the possibility of collusion. But none of that gets his clients paid.
Collusion isn’t taking place when a player gets a $300M contract. But if the owners are ganging up on anyone, it’s Boras. Remove his clients from the conversation and baseball free agents are looking pretty good. His clients meanwhile are looking pretty unemployed at the start of spring training…
“Collusion isn’t taking place when…”
Now that’s a silly conclusion. Is collusion taking place when multiple players receive multiple identical offers the same day?
Based on a few contracts you’re concluding there’s no collusion?
Take a look at the list of free agents signed. Then take a look at the good free agents remaining. Remove Kimbel from the equation and you have one common thread.
Baseball doesn’t have a labor problem. Baseball has a Boras problem.
The Tigers will have a better record at the end of 2019 than the Padres will.
They still play baseball in Detroit?
Well here’s the situation between the Phillies, Harper and Boras. The Phillies are clearly the only team willing to offer anything close the the asking price of approximately 300m. But if you are going to sign a playerany player to thus length of contract and dollars you are expecting the player to be the face of your franchise. Question, does Harper sound like someone looking forward to bring the face of the Phillies franchise? I think that is more the question here now at this time in the negotiation that needs to be addressed. And if the answer is no then you pull out and move on. You can’t risk this type of contract on anyone that isn’t seriously interested in representing and spending the rest of career representing the team and fan base. It’s time to move on and I would for one respect that decision. The Karma here is the money involved would reduce to the point of embarrassment for him and the agent and rightfully so.
That fourth paragraph is a mess. Run-on sentences galore. I miss the days when MLBTR featured concise, well-crafted journalism rather than writers trying to flex their muscles of diction and puncuation, but end up failing.
A Las Vegas meeting and still no contract? Time for the Phillies to play take it or leave it. Either agree to a contract, or good luck accepting one of those “other” $300 million deals. Negotiations have gone on long enough.
Harper is all yours Philadelphia. The pressure will be on big time to win now with this deal. It can be difficult to meet such high expectations. But increasing home game attendance by itself might be worth it?
Looking for a starting lefty? Braves could move Sean Newcomb and Kolby Allard (San Clemente) for Francisco Mejia, Brad Wieck and either Hunter Renfro or Manual Margot.
Padres don’t need a starting lefty. They have plenty