As we still continue to wait for the new homes of Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, let’s move on to the 14th team payroll projection. Below find the links to the earlier posts in this series.
Philadelphia Phillies
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Angels
Atlanta Braves
New York Yankees
Chicago White Sox
Boston Red Sox
Minnesota Twins
Milwaukee Brewers
San Francisco Giants
St. Louis Cardinals
Chicago Cubs
New York Mets
If you have questions about financial information made available to the public and the assumptions used in this series, please refer to the Phillies piece linked above.
Today, we look into a club whose rebuild has yielded one of baseball’s top farm systems: the San Diego Padres.
Team Leadership
In the realm of sports franchise ownership, the Padres got off to a rough start. C. Arnholdt Smith founded the team in 1969, but when software executive John Moores bought the team in 1994, he became the fourth distinct owner in just a 25-year span, an unseemly rate of turnover for the club. Moores held the club as majority owner for a significant period of time, but it wasn’t without its own upheaval: in 2009, a group led by agent Jeff Moorad purchased a significant minority stake in the Padres with the intention of completing the remaining purchase of the team in the coming years. Instead, after years of trying by Moorad, the team was sold in 2012 to an ownership group led by Ron Fowler (who now serves as chairman) and Peter Seidler (presently titled the organization’s general partner).
Since August 2014, the baseball operations department has been headed by executive vice president and general manager A.J. Preller. Preller inherited a team that had won 75 games per year from 2011-14 and in the first four years under his leadership, the team went on to win just 70 per year. Nevertheless, Preller received an extension in October 2017 due in large part to his efforts building a successful farm system.
The team is yet to make a postseason run under Preller (or Fowler/Seidler, for that matter), but to be fair, they won just one playoff game in the 14 years prior to the 2012 sale.
Historical Payrolls
Before hitting the numbers, please recall that we use data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, we’ll use average annual value (“AAV”) on historical deals but actual cash for 2019 and beyond, and deferrals will be reflected where appropriate. And, of course, the value of examining historical payrolls is twofold: they show us either what type of payroll a team’s market can support or how significantly a given ownership group is willing to spend. In the most useful cases, they show us both. We’ll focus on a 15-year span for the Padres, covering 2005-18 for historical data as a means to understanding year 15: 2019. This period covers the transition from Moores to Fowler and Seidler’s ownership and includes Preller’s first attempt to buy a winner, so this provides an excellent window into what to expect from the club as they rev up to contend again. We’ll also use Opening Day payrolls as those better approximate expected spending by ownership.
Although the Padres have never been a top spender among Major League clubs, payroll underwent a meteoric rise during the first few years under new ownership, nearly tripling from 2010 to 2015 before tumbling again when Preller’s first attempt at constructing a winner backfired.
The Padres have never come remotely close to incurring a luxury tax bill, oftentimes ending with a payroll $100 million under the tax line. However, the team became a major spender on international amateur talent prior to the new system clamping down on substantial expenditures in that space, giving out the following bonuses in the 2016 class alone: $11 million to Cuban lefty Adrian Morejon, $4 million to Dominican shortstop Luis Almanzar, $3 million to Cuban righty Michel Baez, and at least five other bonuses between $1 million and $2 million each. Despite the paltry annual Major League payrolls and the smaller media market when compared to the behemoths of baseball, the Padres under Preller approached the international amateur space like the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, and Cubs until a new Collective Bargaining Agreement closed that door. A major chunk of franchise spending was embedded here.
Future Liabilities
The Padres sheet is really interesting. Let’s take a look and then examine the numbers.
Let’s look at this one backward, from the bottom to the top.
The Padres have a significant chunk of their 2019 spending tied up in players who won’t be wearing Padres uniforms this year. Hughes appears to be the biggest number at first glance, but thanks to the contribution from the Twins, San Diego owes him just $7.25 million. More importantly, the purpose of that deal wasn’t Hughes: it was San Diego’s ability to draft and sign Texas Tech oufielder Grant Little with the 74th pick in the 2018 draft, acquired from the Twins alongside Hughes.
The largest commitment belongs to Hector Olivera at $16 million over the next two years. Signed by the Dodgers, Olivera was traded to the Braves, suspended for domestic violence, and then the Padres acquired his contract when offloading Matt Kemp’s remaining deal to Atlanta.
Makita failed as a bullpen import last year, while Wood failed as a trade import in 2017, leaving 2018 dead money and the buyout of his 2019 option that was split with Kansas City. Neither amount is significant.
Finally, Gyorko, Shields, and Richard also won’t play for the Padres in 2019. For Gyorko and Shields, this year represents the final year of multi-year payouts of bad decisions. For Richard, San Diego caught a break when Toronto claimed him off of waivers and agreed to take on half of his $3 million guarantee for 2019.
Add it all up and the net dead money on the San Diego books is $25.9 million in 2019, $8.5 million in 2020, and nothing beyond. Keep this in mind.
Small, short-term commitments to Kinsler and Stammen don’t move the needle much, though both figure to get a chance to play meaningful roles for the team in 2019.
Richards, on the other hand, gets yet another chance to show that he can get and stay healthy over the course of a southern California season, this time with the Padres instead of the Angels. That chance, of course, will come in 2020 after Richards underwent Tommy John surgery in July 2018.
Finally, we hit the two big numbers: Myers and Hosmer. Myers showed tremendous promise early in his career with the Rays and he excelled with San Diego in 2016, totaling 28 homers and steals while getting on base well. Unfortunately, nagging wrist injuries an an inexplicable experiment at third base have hampered his overall value in recent years. Just 28, Myers still has time to re-emerge even if the early returns on his extension have been poor. Add it all up and he has $72.5 million remaining over the next four guaranteed years, including his 2023 buyout. Not good. But not crippling.
Hosmer, similarly, provided terrible early returns on his big deal. He comically has an average WAR in even-numbered years of -0.4 compared to 2.9 in odd-numbered years, including 3.6 over his non-rookie odd-numbered years. I’m not here to stump for the even-year/odd-year split, but Hosmer has shown a trend. The Padres will surely hope to see a massive rebound from their marquee investment in 2019. Like Myers, Hosmer is still in his 20s (29). Hosmer is due $80 million over the next four years before he decides whether to hit free agency in advance of his age-33 season or keep his three-year, $39 million golden parachute.
The Padres arbitration table is arguably the leanest one we’ve seen thus far in the series:
Despite being 5’10” and nearly 32 years old, Yates figures to occupy a key role in 2019 coming off of a stellar 2018 that saw peak production and a repeat of his 2017 velocity jump. Yates figures to play an important role for the team, either as the closer or as this year’s Brad Hand, fetching a sizable return in July.
Hedges is an excellent defensive catcher and provided offense around the league average for his position last year.
Erlin excelled in a swing role in 2018 returning from Tommy John surgery, coming in under one walk per nine innings while setting career highs in velocity on every pitch. He’s worth keeping an eye on in 2019.
The remaining names — Jankowski, Mitchell, and Garcia — simply don’t move the needle much (unless the needle is moved by pure speed, in which case Jankowski moves it a ton).
What Does Team Leadership Have to Say?
At a time when most franchises are talking about payroll efficiency and ducking the luxury tax, Preller’s end-of-season comments were a breath of fresh air. In looking to 2019, Preller stated that “I feel like we’re going to have some financial flexibility, because a lot of the players are younger players. And we’re at that point from a plan standpoint where we’re going to have to supplement from the outside — be it the free agent or trade route. We’ll look to do that in the next few months.”
Fowler and Seidler, on the other hand, made waves this offseason by opening the team’s books to the San Diego Union-Tribune and revealing that they are (i) primarily focused on reducing the team’s debt load, and (ii) still hung up on the inefficient use of cash from 2015. Fowler mentioned that 2015’s $40 million payroll bump yielded just $15 million in additional ticket/concession/merchandise revenue, continuing that “It really convicted me…We had a blip in terms of revenue…(and) we dug a big hole for ourselves.”
That does not sound like an ownership group interested in spending big dollars anytime soon.
Are the Padres a Player for Bryce Harper or Manny Machado?
Yes. Definitely. Or at least they definitely should be.
The Padres don’t immediately make oodles of sense as a player at the top of the market, but they check off every other box for being a team that pursues one of these elite talents.
First and foremost, ownership has shown the penchant to spend on a winner as Preller’s 2015 experiment showed.
Second, ownership has shown a penchant to spend on “the right player” as last year’s massive deal for Hosmer showed.
Third, the Padres have a window of contention that will blow open in the next year or two.
Fourth, thanks to shrewd trades and superb drafting and development, that contender will be fueled almost entirely by players making the league minimum. The Padres have assembled one of the truly great collections of farm talent in the modern history of the game. I could go into great detail here, but instead, I’ll let the introduction to the club’s top prospect list over at Baseball Prospectus do the talking: “their full-slot, top-ten first-round pick from this year’s draft is ranked 12th overall.” If you have any interest in prospect accumulation, take a look at the Padres system and how it was built.
Fifth, they have southern California geography on their side with both a pleasing climate and proximity to Harper’s home in Las Vegas.
Sixth, they have a desperate need for an impact bat (or two) and the two spots that make the most sense for housing this bat are (i) outfield, and (ii) shortstop or third base (wherever stud infielder Fernando Tatis Jr. isn’t playing).
Seventh, outside of Hosmer and Myers, the Padres don’t have any major salaries on the books and their current Major League players heading into arbitration in the next few years won’t receive substantial awards. There simply isn’t much in the way of earmarked money going forward, be it currently guaranteed or coming through arbitration.
Eighth, the immediate payoff could be significant as the Rockies stood pat this winter aside from Daniel Murphy, the Diamondbacks kicked off a rebuild, and the Giants have thus far made modest additions.
Considering the above factors and the glacial pace of the Harper/Machado market to date, it should come as no surprise that the Padres began openly poking around the market for the superstars last week.
What Will the 2019 Payroll Be?
At this stage in the offseason, payroll is quite low at $87.6 million. This would represent a 6.8 percent drop in payroll from 2018’s Opening Day payroll. As a reminder, 2018’s Opening Day payroll was 5.3 percent below 2016’s opening day payroll. And 2016’s Opening Day payroll was 8.4 percent below 2015’s. Add it all up and this year’s Opening Day payroll would be 19.2 percent below 2015’s high water mark. In the estimate of Forbes, the franchise’s value has increased over 29.9 percent during that time.
So is this it? Is this the new normal for the Padres, same as the old normal?
Something doesn’t add up to me. The Padres sported a payroll north of $100 million in 2015 and spent nearly $100 million in 2016 while spending about $25 million on international amateurs, all while saddled with a much more notable debt burden.
There’s a scenario in play where the organization truly doesn’t want to spend, thus keeping payroll at its current level below $90 million and saving cash for…well, I’m not sure exactly. But that doesn’t line up with recent practice. The club lacks major commitments going forward and needs a big boost with a front office and ownership group that has shown a willingness to make a splash. I bet Fowler and Seidler authorize another big swing.
Keep in mind that the numbers projected below would still be below 2015 and 2016 aggregate spending levels…and that the team sees more than $20 million in dead money drop off of its books next year.
Projected 2019 Payroll: $115 million
Projected 2019 Payroll Space: $27.4 million
lol at the 2015 payroll
“We’ll also use Opening Day payrolls as those better approximate expected spending by ownership.”
At least 2015 Pads’ payroll did something PIT never did: Achieve an opening day payroll of $100M+
so, Mr Baseball, why dont you give us a detailed reason on why Pitt doesnt have a $100M payroll. Please amuse us with your well thought, well communicated basis for this.
…this should be easy for an expert such as yourself. please enlighten.
I’ll summarize in two words: Pittsburgh’s economy
quite obvious you arent educated either.
@clepto
“either”? — Quite obvious you’re 3rdSL…
Can I get an IP check(!!)
question still isnt answered. one could only assume, yet again, you are speaking on something you know little about. nice work…again.
Padres did something Pittsburgh has yet to achieve spend 100m? Why on earth is that significant at all? Spending money to not make the playoffs and achieving nothing is rewarded now? I’m confused. I’m amazed fans have been duped this badly by Boras. If a team wins, and wins with the lowest payroll of all time the simpletons here will still complain.
$27.4M left for Moose. Nice.
$7.4 for Moose and $20m for Keuchel.
Machado or Harper would put a lot of butts in the seats. Dallas could even make sense on a fair contract to show the young SP core how it’s done. This team is going to be fun to watch if ownership shows some commitment with a little money…
Tom I hope so I want to support a winning team. Its hard being a San Diego sports fan. This group of youngsters gives me hope so I’m excited for the future padres
Keuchel’s ask is WAY too high right now, though. That said, he would make sense otherwise. So would Machado, to beef up defense behind young pitchers as well as add offense.
Rebuilding since 1969.
Same with Atlanta. The city, that is.
1869 is more like it.
Horrible job signing Hosmer. They’d have enough to sign Harper, Machado, Dallas and still be able to trade for a cc’er.
Harper and Machado would be 60-70 milion a year, nobody is paying these two guys 60-70 milion combined for 7+years.
Not sure Harper would generate 30+ milion in revenue
When fail for 30 homers in five years but still have big pay, Harper still generate big projected money for team revenue. Boras new binders, top secret idea, late career revenue for attraction when big salary old guy not produce. Boras calls his genius idea, pie to face and dunk tank revenue stream. Team start sign big name to big dollar long year, then in year four when still lose and big regret, Boras client does after loss fan event.
I read this in Tonto’s voice.
HAHAHAH!!!!
Ohh man jekporkins, you got me good with that one.
I know Hosmer did not look good last year but he has had previous successful seasons. I am happy to see a small market team sign a player like him and take that risk than sit around and lose 100 games like some other teams do. I enjoy the young core the padres have and I wish them luck in this upcoming season. Would be nice to see someone else win the West for a change
For me, you only overpay for a free agent if he fills a need. Hosmer did not fill a need.
Yes, Hosmer filled a need. Myers is not a very good first baseman. He wasn’t an embarrasment like he is at third, but he’s not good.
Not sure about Myers’ marks at 1st but even if we don’t like those, the Padres have one of the game’s better 1st base prospects in Josh Naylor. I’d have given him a chance before going out and overpaying for someone who would block him.
Good point. But how much longer are you willing to put up with terrible baseball.
Long enough to get an idea of whether or not Josh Naylor would constitute “terrible baseball” at the Major League level
Fair enough. I’d like to see what he can do, too. But I don’t see how that can happen at present. He’ll probably get some innings in ST, but after that?
I’m saying I’d have given him a chance before going out and overpaying for an established 1B. Because the Padres are rebuilding they can afford to take chances on young, unproven guys with cheap control and upside. The same way trading for Realmuto made no sense with Hedges and Mejia already in the fold.
With Naylor running into the Rule 5 draft next offseason they will likely be forced to trade him at some point in 2019.
True, but at some point you’ve got to add some good players from outside. I wasn’t real excited about the signing, but Hosmer did fill a position of need. Wasn’t Naylor just going into AA at the time? And Myers was not very good defensively.
Completely agree on Realmuto. Going after him made no sense at all. But tanking (now euphemistically called “rebuilding”), is not something I can get behind as an excuse.
You add good players from outside to fill needs like SS or 3B (wherever Tatis doesn’t end up at). 1st base was not a need unless and until Naylor proved that he couldn’t hack it in the Majors.
We’ll have to disagree. Myers was barely adequate, but Naylor wasn’t close to ready. Unless you enjoy tanking and watching bad baseball at big league prices?
Like I said, I wasn’t thrilled with the Hosmer signing, but it disgusts me to see teams not even pretend to try and win.
It’s all moot now.
If you don’t want Myers at first then sign a one-or-two year stopgap. Don’t sign a guy who will block one of your best prospects.
Yup, that’s definitely another option. There’s more than one way to skin a cat.
So you are saying Harper, Machado and Keuchel combined will make less than $20m AAV?
Great farm. But that Hosmer contract just looks..horrendous.
Not nearly as bad as the Myers deal.
this was a fun read – great work!
Awesome farm system. Let me know when the major league club comes close to being relevant. Because for all the talk about Preller and this farm system… the major league club performance has gotten worse. Prospects don’t “fuel” a window of opportunity for the Padres. Major league successful players who USED to be prospects are what fuel the window of opportunity.
Padres haven’t had much luck yet with the latter. Lots of hedges fans amongst Padres faithful, I’m not one of them. Renfroe, so far, is just so-so and never given a real chance. Urias struggled (very small sample) in the majors last season…. and now they are saying “hey rookie…. go play shortstop (out of position) and keep that bat that you had through the minors”… terrible idea. Might sound like I’m digging on Urias, but I’m really not. I loved watching him in Elsinore. I think he’s a stud. However, I think he the Padres will find a way to mismanage him and stunt development. Platooning…. switching him to shortstop…. batting him 7th or 8th so he’s pitched around and chasing…. all things the Padres like to do with their young “prospects”
Seems like we develop a lot of average or below average hitters.
When will we see some plus talent emerge? My guess is, this season.
Stick to the plan, and keep developing from within. We need a permanent flow of talent.
Lol whut? None of those guys were drafted or signed by Preller. I dont understand why people struggle to understand the 5 year rebuild. You are like someone who says “same old padres”, but doesnt realize this padres ownership has existed for 5 years.
None of what guys were drafted or signed by Preller? I only listed Renfroe, hedges, and Urias. You’re right, none of those were drafted by Preller or signed by Preller. Prellers job on day one, and onward, was to identify what talent existed in the current minor league system, and what needed to be addressed. Tre turner, joe Ross, Zach efflin, etc are all players Preller found expendable, while holding onto the likes of hedges, Renfroe, etc. Also, Preller HAS signed/drafted players who haven’t helped this team (shields, Myers, Hosmer). So I’m not sure why people don’t understand that this team has gotten worse, WHILE ownership has been more willing to fork out money.
It doesn’t matter if someone says “same old padres” when it’s a new ownership group, the phrase is an expression. I’d hope I wouldn’t have to explain something simple like that. If the same trends, same losing, etc still occurs during new ownership…. people will say “same old Padres.”
Since the 5 years of Fowler, and since aj prellers tenure…. guess what? It’s been “same old Padres”. I love the minor league system. That’s awesome. Guess how many of them actually make an impact on the Padres? Not even 50% of them.
As I said…. let me know when the major league club gets to .500, THEN people can praise Preller and company for their rebuild.
I’m not seeing a lot of praise. We are all burned about Trea Turner. The Hosmer signing looks bad – especially after last year, but it is not “same old Padres.” I’d hope that we wouldn’t have to explain that to you. This is not a ringing endorsement of Preller, but a farm system as deep as theirs is is not “same old Padres.” Rebuilds take time. No teams do this overnight. If the Padres trade away their young talent for lesser talent (Alomar and Joe Carter for McGriff and Tony Fernandez), or do a firesale a la Warner group, or waste top draft picks on Matt Bush or refuse to work with Scott Boras, then I will say “same old Padres.” But I’m not seeing that right now. I’m seeing a group that is pretty good at talent evaluation, a willingness to spend internationally and in the draft and apparently in free agency. Not everything works out. There have been mistakes, but whether it’s a figure of speech or a statement of fact, I think you are just wrong either way.
Maybe not Matt Bush but they did use their first round pick 2 of the last 3 years on guys who clearly weren’t the best players available because they would supposedly sign for cheap (and then neither one actually did sign for cheap).
LOL at the “5 year rebuild.” Whatever helps you sleep at night.
Kyle Glaster published a little tidbit which I thought interesting. Since 2005, 13 of the 14 teams ranked with the top farm system made the playoffs within two years. The only one that didn’t was the 2011 Kansas City Royals, which made the playoffs in the third year and won the WS in the fourth.
Cool…. guess we will see in two years. I’m not so confident. A) I don’t think gore/patino and some other prospects are ready to contribute by nexts season. B) I just flat out don’t trust Preller/Green handling of the major league roster. Whether it’s poor free agent signings, constructing a roster with logjams that creates playing time issues, switching players positions around the diamond, etc…. As impressed as I’ve been with Preller’s ability to quickly and aggressively build a farm system, I’ve been equally UNimpressed with their handling of the major league roster. Guess we will see in a couple years….
csspackler — Why did someone downvote your factual comment? You didn’t even offer an opinion. Did someone think in their head, “facts, I hate facts. Fake news! Fake news…”? I think the facts you offered are very encouraging. Essentially you are saying that the top farm systems since 2005 have ALL made the playoffs. Wow.
Don’t know. There are a lot of fan factions. There’s a contingent that swears off technology and metrics, even though the top teams in baseball were way ahead of the curve. .There’s another contingent that just doesn’t believe in prospects (although they will never acknowledge that established stars were once prospects … all of them). There’s a group that swears off the DH and, if adopted by the NL, promises to leave the game never to return. To each his/her own.
That’s completely false. Which “ranking” of farm systems did he use? Just off the top of my head I can name TWO teams – the Padres and Twins.
It has been written about numerous times in myriad publications that there is practically ZERO correlation between farm “rankings” and playoff teams.
Maybe Fowler is saving his money for… profit. Or would that be too outlandish as a possibility?
Considering how much money they have spent the since 2015, that would be understandable. The Padres owners have had more than $60 million in cash calls since the 2015 season according the the U/T.
In 2015 they spent all that money on stars that didn’t produce. They spent over $100 million in 2016 on amateur talent between the draft and international free agency. In 2016 they made Myers the highest paid player in team history. In 2018 they signed the highest priced FA on the market.
Taking a profit is not what it sounds like they are planning to do. They are out there making competitive offers on the biggest free agents in the game again this offseason.
Are the Padres really serious about those offers or are they trying to look good to the fan base. When we finally bring in a decent FA like a 3B, or SP I ‘ll believe it then, until such time its a lot of smoke and mirrors.
OK, so now?
The continually strange part of this debate is the general factoring out of ownership’s main goal, which is to optimize their return on investment. If they can do that without fielding a competitive team, then why would they do otherwise? With moneyball having redefined the business of the game, it’s ironic that we talk so little about where the money really is in the game, where the profit motive incentives take ownership, and how they shape competition. What I am noting here is how in this article the possibility that Fowler simply wants to make more money for himself is not mentioned, as if that would be a strange thing to even consider. That’s the missing element. It always is.
Fowler’s Net Worth is half a billion dollars before the value of the Padres is factored in. That’s just on his business. Mr. Scrooge for sure.
The Padres ended 2018 at a $130 million payroll. It’s really not an accurate measure to use the opening day payroll for any team.
The Padres currently have a payroll of $80 million and change according to Cots Baseball Contracts. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tml6a7X5uNjETnokoB…
Fowler said that through refinancing the debt the ownership group took on when they bought the team, through cash calls to the owners and the money the team got from MLB’s sale of BAMTech, that the Padres had cleared up $8 million per season that they could dedicate to major league payroll. When asked if the year end payroll in 2018 was sustainable, Fowler said that it was. Seidler has echoed Fowler sentiment on team payroll.
The Padres adding Harper or Machado would put them in the $115 range you have predicted and would still leave them another $15-20 million they could add in salaries if they are contending later in the season.
So was $130 MILL a typo. If not please run down what that money was spent on? Signing bonuses for 2018 MLB Draft??? NO. Players we brought in at the deadline? NO. WHERE WAS THAT MONEY SPENT???
I see where you got that number but there is no breakdown. Comparing it to the last decade it makes no sense. It is for the 40-man roster not the active 25-man. I read the description of that column on COT’S, and it does not justify the number.
legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/nl…. It’s from the source cited in the article. The Padres season ending payroll was $130 million.
Thank you Koamalu!
the Padres were not sold to Ron Fowler….the team was bought by Peter Seidler who is among a group of owners that consist of his younger brother, two of his cousins, the OMalley brothers (who are the grandsons of the man who owned the Brooklyn Dodgers), and Ron Fowler (who was a MINORITY owner, when J0hn Moores was the primary owner of the team)
Peter Seidler is the general partner and primary owner. He signs the checks. Ron Fowler is the “face of the owners group’. He is NOT the primary owner, in no way shape or form. When the Padres contingent went to Vegas to speak with Harper, Fowler was NOT with the group. Know why?…BECAUSE HE DOES NOT CUT THE CHECKS!…THAT WOULD BE PETER SEIDLER, WHO WENT WITH PRELLER AND GREEN, ON THE TRIP!
Ron Fowler has the largest stake in the ownership group that bought the Padres from John Moores ownership group. To be the Managing Partner which Fowler is (as well as Executive Chairman of the Board), MLB requires that it be the largest stakeholder.
Peter Seidler is a general partner. He is a minority owner. His family makes up a larger block of ownership than Fowler owns individually, but Peter is not the primary owner.
Seen lots of checks from the Padres and not one was signed by Seidler.
Seems to be the same ol story, San Diego being a small market club just can’t get it done or is it more appropriate to say the FO doesn’t want to spend to get it done. Their payroll is a joke in today’s market, I don’t want to hear the excuse coming from Fowler or Seidler if he can’t afford to spend then sale the team to someone who can afford to bring a winner in to San Diego. I hope some day in this century we actually see the Padres in the playoffs or WS. The question is will it happen with the current ownership?
“Add it all up and he has $72.5 million remaining over the next four guaranteed years, including his 2023 buyout. Not good. But not crippling.”
-SERIOUSLY… THIS IS MIDDLE SCHOOL WRITING LEVEL
“The Padres are about to get good.”
mighty1090.com/episode/keith-law-the-padres-are-ju…
… Because somebody on local radio says so. Yeah, take it to the bank.
@RobHuff Gyorko produced 2.9 WAR on average with a 111,OPS+ over the last 3 years in St Louis while earning $4 MM, $6 MM, and $9 million in 2016-2018. He more than earned the money he was paid. The mistake was the Padres giving up on him so early.
Erlin’s FB velocity was pretty much exactly what it was in 2013, 2014, and 2015. 91 MPH vs 90.6 mph.
Using opening day payroll is misleading. Teams trade for and call up players during the season and add to their payroll every year. What matters is the end of season, 40 man payroll. That is what they actually spent.
Myers overall value was 2.4 WAR last season, the best on the team and he was paid $2 million. Using the source you cited for payroll numbers, Myers contract lays out as follows – $15 million signing bonus + 17:$2M, 18:$2M, 19:$3M, 20:$20M, 21:$20M, 22:$20M, 23:$20M club option ($1M buyout). He is guaranteed $64 million more including 2019
legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/nl…
“He comically” What is that exactly? Stick to getting the facts wrong.
The purpose of the Hughes deal was to see if a MLB veteran that had pitched to a league average ERA for the 1st 9 years of his career could bounce back from a bad season and eat some innings. He failed to do that. The Bonus was a draft pick that turned into Grant Little. Because of the uncertain nature of drafts, the Padres had no idea if Little would be available at #74.
“That chance, of course, will come in 2020”??? The recovery time for Tommy John surgery is 12-18 months. So it’s not “of course.” You could say probably or most likely, but not of course. It’s factually incorrect.
The title of the article you mention, “Look at Padres’ books shows debt reduction has team in position to spend” indicates the exact opposite of what you claim. You need to reread the article.
Fowler and Seidler opened the team’s books and showed that they had already refinanced the team’s debt and now had more money to spend.
The amount they receive from their TV deal will nearly double to $60 million in 2020. It has been held down by the $200 million advance that Fox Sports gave to former owner John Moores when the Fowler led group purchased the Padres in 2012.
“There’s a scenario in play where the organization truly doesn’t want to spend”????? The Padres ownership signed Shields to one of the biggest FA contracts of 2015 and also traded for the big dollar contract of Kemp and traded for Upton and Kimbrel, spent $100 million on amateur talent in 2016, signed Myers to the largest deal in team history in 2017, and then signed Hosmer to the biggest FA deal in both team history and in the majors in 2018. They are spending and spending big every year. What scenario are you talking about?
I sincerely hope you do a better job of factually reporting the situation on the rest of the articles in this series that are about money.
I know there’s lots of room in there but get outta my head, Koamalu! Well said, sir/ma’am.