Yesterday’s arbitration deadline wasn’t a firm date for agreeing to terms. Rather, it was the end of the period to negotiate before submitting numbers for possible hearings. Negotiations can continue thereafter, but teams and players will now have to defend their submission numbers if they can’t bridge the gap before a hearing. Baseball arb panels simply pick one side’s number; that aspect of the process is designed to force the parties to the bargaining table.
[RELATED: MLBTR Arbitration Projections; MLBTR Arbitration Tracker]
Here’s what we know thus far about the still-unresolved cases:
Today’s Updates
- The Yankees have yet to come to a deal with ace starter Luis Severino, and they may be heading to arbitration. The Yanks have submitted their bid at $4.4MM, while Severino has asked for $5.25MM, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter).
- Tommy Pham and the Rays have submitted their numbers for arbitration, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter). Pham filed at $4.1MM while the Rays submitted a bid of $3.5MM. Pham has had no problem expressing his honest opinion about the Rays fanbase of late, and it will be interesting to see if he gets an equal portion of honest feedback in return in his arbitration hearing.
- The Oakland A’s and their closer Blake Treinen have both submitted their numbers, with the team coming in at $5.6MM while Treinen files for $6.4MM, per Fancred’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). It’s not a shock to see these sides far apart, given Treinen’s remarkable 2018 and how far above his usual standard of production last season’s numbers fell.
- Washington Nationals filed at $1.725MM for newcomer Kyle Barraclough, who counters at $2MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter). The former Marlin was acquired in an uncommonly early offseason trade that sent international bonus pool money the Marlins’ way.
- The Diamondbacks have only one player they did not reach an agreement with, lefty reliever T.J. McFarland. The Dbacks submitted a bid of $1.275MM, while McFarland is asking for $1.675MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter).
- Alex Wood submitted $9.65MM for his 2019 salary, while his new club the Cincinnati Reds countered at $8.7MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter). Wood will be a free agent at season’s end.
- The Detroit Tigers reached agreements with all of their arbitration eligible players except for right-handed starter Michael Fulmer. Fulmer comes in at $3.4MM with the team countering at $2.8MM, the difference being 600K, per Nightengale (via Twitter).
- Ryan Tepera has filed for $1.8MM while the Blue Jays submitted their bid at $1.525MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter). Tepera has been a reliable bullpen arm for the Jays through his first four seasons. He has two more seasons of arbitration remaining, set to reach free agency in advance of the 2022 season.
- Reserve outfielder Michael A. Taylor and the Washington Nationals are a 250K apart, per Nightengale (via Twitter). Seems like a rather small sum to quibble over in the grand scheme of things, but every cent counts right now in Washington, it seems. Taylor submitted a bid of $3.5MM, with the Nats countering at $3.25MM.
Earlier Updates
- Rockies star Nolan Arenado is headed for a record arb salary, unsurprisingly. The question is by how much. He has filed at a whopping $30MM, with the club countering at $24MM, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). Even the lower figure would represent a record. It doesn’t seem as if the sides will go to a high-stakes hearing on this one; Jeff Passan of ESPN.com tweets that the odds are good they’ll find common ground. MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz projected Arenado to earn $26.1MM, though he also explained that it’s not hard to see that number swaying in either direction based upon a close examination of the (few relevant) comps.
- Despite a monster 2018 season, Phillies righty Aaron Nola isn’t seeking to set a record first-year arb starter salary. (That belongs to Dallas Keuchel, at $7.25MM, when he was coming off of a Cy Young season.) Nola did file at a hefty $6.75MM, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia (via Twitter), while the club entered just $4.5MM. It’ll be interesting to see how this one plays out. The Keuchel salary represented a sea change for young starters, but few others have tested the process since. MLBTR’s projection system spit out a $6.6MM figure for Nola.
- Righty Gerrit Cole filed at $13.5MM, while the Astros countered at $11.425MM, according to Jon Heyman of Fancred (Twitter link). Teammates Carlos Correa and Chris Devenski have also yet to agree to terms. MLBTR projected Cole to earn $13.1MM in his final arb season, Correa to check in at $5.1MM in his first arb year, and Devenski to take home $1.4MM his first time through the process.
- Indians righty Trevor Bauer is seeking a $13MM payday, while the club will argue instead for $11MM, per Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer (via Twitter). The Cleveland org has long utilized a file-and-trial approach on a case-by-case basis. It’s not totally clear whether that’ll be the approach here, but as Hoynes notes, the sides did go to a hearing already last year. (Bauer won.) MLBTR projected a $11.6MM payday; Swartz also explained why he thought the model was likely in the right ballpark for Bauer in a detailed post.
- Passan provides a list of other players who have yet to agree to terms and who could therefore still end up before a panel. There are fifteen in total, including those already noted above as well as Kyle Barraclough and Michael Taylor (Nationals), Michael Fulmer (Tigers), T.J. McFarland (Diamondbacks), Tommy Pham (Rays), Luis Severino (Yankees), Ryan Tepera (Blue Jays), Blake Treinen (Athletics), and Alex Wood (Reds).
Unsolved Mysteries
I’m going to have nightmares tonight just b/c you mentioned that show. Used to haunt me as a kid.
The combination of Robert Stacks voice, and the creepiest theme song ever, scared the sh*t out of everyone born in the early 80’s, myself included.
I just looked it up on YouTube and had to turn it off after like 13 seconds. That man’s voice is indeed uniquely terrifying in concert with that music. It has the effect of assuring you that, actually, that weird, terrible, incredibly low-likelihood thing you are afraid of can and will happen to you — quite likely tonight, in fact.
Great now the theme is stuck in my head.
Sometimes it is fun to put that song on loudly in the car, pull up next to strangers, and then roll down the window and stare.
Fun fact: He was the voice of Ultra Magnus in the original 80’s transformers cartoon movie.
This made me laugh.
Hulu has it
haaahaaha, lmao
Jeff, great comments, cannot stop laughing
while thinking of Severino and his dead arm
You are an awesome individual. Please do not leave MLBTR. 🙂
Yes, DITTO
“Update”
My favorite show!!
Phillies want to spend “stupid money” but should take care of the homegrown kid.
I know there’s a danger in setting a high floor, but Nola seems worth it.
agree…not happy they may have to argue their case..here’s hoping they can work it out b4 it gets to the arbiter…
Phillies sound cheap, where is all the stupid money they were going to throw around or was that fake news?
Meeting with Harper today. It’s January 12th. Give it time.
Severino is interested. The rest… eh
Absolutely in my mind too.
Too much
30 mil in arb?!
He’s good but that is not a realistic number. I’m surprised they filed with that number and I wonder if that ends up backfiring.
That’s going to be the future if players continue to miss the big paydays in free agency
Honestly, in a lot of ways it makes more sense. Compensate guys fairly while their play justifies it, and in exchange players will be slightly less motivated to seek the exorbitant free agent contracts that teams are unwilling to give. It seems like a fairly organic way to correct the current system without actually changing anything.
Of course, Harper and Machado will probably both sign next week for like 15 years/450 million or something crazy and debunk what I just said…lol
I guess my point is that I’d rather be paying Arenado $30 million now while his play merits it than 10 years from now when he’s past his prime, and more and more teams are starting to think this way.
Teams should have figured it out years ago. I don’t know how to write this without coming off as a brag but I have high school papers I’ve wrote from 10 years ago explaining why teams shouldn’t sign any free agents. If they do it better be their own guy. Even if that wasn’t a 100% true at the time I would have and still to this day right about that more often than it’s wrong. And judging by the way the brilliant young GMs operate this year and last, that’s how they think as well. Now the CBA kinda forced some of them into that thinking but regardless it’s the current state of the market. And now the players and the PA are crying bloody murder. This isn’t a bad thing. It’s good for the game. It’s bad currently for the players but they’re still making generational wealth that none of them are starving. Oh they are only being offered 2 and 3 year deals now as opposed to 6? Too bad? The most irrelevant opinions are those who pretend like the players were always getting those 6 year deals into their late 30s and should still be getting them. Ever watch the episode of the Simpsons where Bart kills homer over and over again in that boxing video game? Homer walks by an arcade and gets someone who’s good at the game to teach him how to play? Comes home and is beating Bart in the game and the power goes out? Bart says he’s retired from ever playing again? That’s the players right now, they won for 20 years straight and literally after one winter way the market corrected itself they cried and stomped their feet and threw out accusations of collusion because they didn’t get their way. Worst sore loser of all time is the PA. They don’t know how to lose and they look particularly bad because they caused this. They actually negotiated many of the things that caused the freeze out last year like the Lux tax penalties. So they’ve got nobody to blame but themselves.
Yes, the MLBPA gave up way too much in the last CBA, because it allowed teams to avoid spending money with a good excuse. They traded the security of younger players, did nothing to help minor leaguers, in exchange for silly benefits like extra seats on the team plane and a few extra days off during the season.
But this is the bigger thing: none of the owners have to win to make money. Between the MLBAM money, TV revenue, the Fantec settlement money, the gambling money that’s about to pour in, etc….there’s no incentiove to win. Back when baseball teams relied on gate revenue to make money, they were incentivized to win – more wins=more paying customers. Now, gate receipts are a small part of a team’s revenue stream. The owners are businessmen who want to make money, and if they can make money even while losing they probably don’t care that much.
So if you aren’t trying to win, of course you’re not going to spend as much on payroll. Of course you’re going to lowball players. Of course you’re not going to pay market value for premium talent if you don’t have to. The players union doesn’t have the same kind of leadership it once had, and it may take a strike by the players to find that kind of tough leadership that would require teams to open the books and guarantee players a certain share of overall revenue. Because right now, any team could afford Harper or Machado or etc. But if they can make money hand-over-fist no matter what the on-field product looks like, why would they? It’s the McDonald’s model – they could buy premium products, pay their workers a lot more, make their restaurants nicer, etc and still make a huge profit. But if they don’t have to, why would they?
The issue isn’t that people think these deals are good. Most rational people know this, and let’s be honest, most teams don’t even call these FA that end up with the monster deals. The issue is the status quo, as irrational as it may be, is beneficial to 1) the top players who can get these contracts and 2) the top teams who can afford to hand out these contracts. If the contract doesn’t work out, the player is still extremely rich and most of the teams that make these deals have the ability to soak up the cost and still build a competitive roster.
This league needs 1) a cap/floor 2) meaningful revenue sharing and 3) extreme overhaul of the financial journey from 0.000 to 6.000 that will allow players to get paid commensurate with their value and allow teams to fairly keep control of players an extra year without manipulating service time.
For the MLBPA, the issue is the leadership hasn’t wanted to *fix* anything. The era of free agency being a rigged auction with artificially inflated prices and bidders leveraging the league’s awful financial disparity… well, it was so preposterous on its face from the outset and it had to end sometime.
MLBPA was content riding it while it lasted and has never shown the slightest inclination to do anything but defend the now-waning status quo. Smaller market teams got creative and showed you don’t need to pay bazillions of dollars to win games, and now even the big money teams have figured that out. They know that they don’t *need* to blindly pay to construct rosters and instead they’ve really mastered how to make the most of their financial strength.
What’s the MLBPA going to do about it? Strike? The only thing they’d be striking for at this point is going backwards. Why have we not seen better MiLB pay? Why have we not seen reform to pre-arb and arb pay? Because the MLBPA has never had the least bit of concern about that… any dollar that goes there is a dollar not going into a 10/300 contract.
The result of MLBPA being focused on the biggest contracts for a select few players and wholly disinterested in the overall state of the league… the league has run roughshod over them and essentially the commissioners office has gone unopposed for too long. The league of course isn’t much better but in labor relations innovation comes from the back-and-forth, and with the union so laser focused on trying to get a player to sign record breaking deals every year, this doesn’t happen. Due to their myopic approach to everything the last 15 years or so, MLBPA has given away an incalculable amount of money without even realizing it, because it would have been spread throughout the player ranks. They’ll take a superstar making an extra $10 over ten players making an extra $2, and they think they’re coming out on top.
Well said davidcoonce! I’ve been saying for years that the MLBPA sold out the players who were just plain selfish/stupid and signed a preposterous agreement. The rookie-3 year players have been pawns of the rest of the league’s wants. If this can be changed at the next CBA it would `help turn the tide of Everything for the team owners! An impartial Commissioner would help fairness as well. Oh! Don’t gamble on baseball since it will be rigged once the money comes pouring in from Vegas!
I agree…for starters he plays in CO…can someone show his splits away CO?
absolutely he’s a great player…but 30 mill? what is his free agency number? ask harper or machado how things are going…
Mookie Betts better player….not so greedy and realistic.
Rockies are willing 24mil…dude take it…you already made 35 mill so far.
why burn a relationship in a climate you do well in?
as mike Hampton how that went….
Betts just got $20 million in his 2nd year of arbitration, a record amount. Arenado is in his final year. If Betts goes two more years in arbitration he will be asking for far in excess of $30 million. Nothing to do with greed.
Yeah the Betts comparison was terrible considering the arb stages. Josh Donaldson last year would be a better comparison for year of arb and position granted he was coming off a injury in 2017 but still had a good year.
no it’s not when you look at overall comparison and park play….Betts deserves that asking amount even though I still say no.
Yes it is. The number is about the arb year, not the play or the park..they both play in top hitters’ parks. Mookie will get more than Arenado and the Coors argument will then hold no water, because it’s not that relevant in this case.
right……Nolan skills are upd some because the climate of his park….duh. end result his value goes up because it helped his over production to sell his vAlue…duh
Again the Betts comparison is and was terrible. Comparing apples to oranges. Again compare 3rd arb players to 3rd arb players. Josh Donaldson last year was and is a much better comparison for Arenado both 3rd arb and both 3b. Donaldson got 24 mil I think. Arenado asking for 6 more than Donaldson? He’s not that much better. Granted there’s still time for them to settle.
Arenado, offensively, is just an average player on the ROAD. Career numbers on the ROAD. 263/318/469/787.
His HOME splits are 320/374/609/984. Buyer beware. You’ll get a great glove and average bat.
It depends on which team eventually signs him as a FA. Coors is not the only ballpark that plays overly offensive in a hitter’s favor. Check out his splits for each ballpark. Milwaukee’s is especially glaring, as are others.
I’m curious if a player that was taken to an arbitration hearing by a team, not just exchanged numbers, has ever signed a free agent contract or extension with the same team afterward?
Ryan Howard
Most players from Colorado should consider home discounts for the Rockies as the Coors Field effect have boosted their ability to earn a living. Too many positional players have failed to live up to the expectations upon leaving the organization and playing half the game in Coors Field. Nolan Arenado is no exception, and will be the player that a team will regret signing next off-season to a long-term contract..
2018 – HOME/AWAY SPLIT
HOME: BA .347 / OBP .424 / SLUG .681 / OPS 1.105 with 23 HR and 23 doubles
AWAY: BA .248 / OBP .325 / SLUG .447 / OPS 0.772 with 15 HR and 15 doubles
CAREER – HOME/AWAY SPLIT
HOME: BA .320 / OBP .374 / SLUG .609 / OPS .984 with 108 HR and 124 doubles
AWAY: BA .263 / OBP . 318 / SLUG .469 / OPS .787 with 78 HR and 98 doubles
Let’s just acknowledge that Nolan Arenado will not be mentioned with earning power anywhere near the current arbitration figure (even with godly defense) had he belonged to another organization and played his home games away from Coors Field. Definitely not worth 24-30 million a season as a player for any other team, and probably not the Rockies.
With Manny Machado and Bryce Harper, you should be able to expect a certain level of production as a member of a team. With Nolan Arenado, you will be paying for levels boosted by Coors Field.
Machado’s career splits are comparable to Arenado’s. If you don’t think Camden boosted Machado’s numbers, then you are blind or ill informed.
Never said Machado was worth the money, regardless of split as well. Team will regret signing him as well.
Stats made me believe that he was hyped, but factor personality and you got a recipe for a disaster that won’t go away.
Let me just say, i’ve heard mention, numerous times, by different talking heads on MLB Network and other sites that fully believe Arenado will be paid in line with what Machado is asking for. Whether that turns out to be true or not, we’ll just have to wait and see.
Also, there are reasons, other than just specifics of certain ballparks, that most player’s split of home and away are glaring. It’s the way it has been throughout the history of MLB. Splits, while a decent barometer, are not the be all end all. There is a certain comfort players have in playing half their games at their home ballpark. So to see stats splayed out before you and definitively say, this is what a player is without variation is shortsighted.
Yet the Rockies threw a ton of money at Blackmon at 31 (now 32), thereby inhibiting their ability to sign Arenado. Also, if Arenado ends up at a place like Yankee Stadium, it won’t make THAT much of a difference.
Blackman was a bad signing by Rockies and will regret it for what ever the length of contract is Arenado will play great defense .at 3rd and hit 275 with 20 homers. That is what teams should expect ,Arenado was playing hurt a lot in second half .
look at Machado line with Dodgers , its more what who ever signs him will get. Good hitter not great ,260-280 with 20 homer with good defense .
Not many players are worth what they get now but while your home/away splits are enlightening none of them give any credit for defense and the guy is a stellar defenseman. But NOBODY IS WORTH 30 MILLION DOLLARS IN THIS WORLD TODAY.
What makes Coors Field a hitters paradise is not just the home runs (90’s coors was faaaar worse) but its that outfielders have to play so deep because of the home run rate there that many balls that would normally be ours fall in for easy hits. As such the home road splits are massive for Rockies players. I can’t imagine what Murphy will do there this year, goodness smh
I do believe arenado will at least match donaldsons arbitration record but if he doesn’t it will be because the Rockies will use the excuses that he has never been an mvp and I’m sure his home road splits will be used
If Rockies say things like that they will loose Arenado , but maybe that’s what they want.
If they want him to go they can just let him walk after next season. No need to do more for him to walk
Donaldson’s ARB record is $23M. The Rockies offered $24M, so unless they agree to some long term extension, Arenado will break the record..
Mind boggling is what it is. So much money for so little work. When will it ever reach a point where salary caps are mandatory? You can only get so much from TV rights, parking and hot dogs plus gate admission fees. Pretty soon the players will be killing the goose that lays the golden eggs and that is the game itself. I am somewhat thankful that I don’t live within 150 miles of a major league park as I would be too tempted to throw away a lot of money for 3 hours of possible enjoyment, emphasize the ‘possible.’ Oh well this old sorehead isn’t much longer for the world anyway so I only hope the game can continue but it is fighting with computer games now for US kids attention.
These players being in MILLIONS in revenue annually and as such they deserve a big piece of the pie. Sports economics is like that
Where is that revenue coming from? Eventually out of the fan’s pocket. A trip to an MLB game for two cost me over $300 last season and I don’t drink beer or eat ballpark food. That may sound cheap to some but not to me. Watching on TV cost the price of a cable TV bill but than I have to listen to some very aggravating announcers. Guess I can’t win.
All this complaining of Players salaries is just not fair! Simply the owners are making between 250 million-2 billion (yankees) a YEAR!! while you complain about 40 million max to a player! What will kill the game is the disparity between players salaries! the Rookie to 5 year players have been thrown under the bus by the elite players and owners. In the next CBA,I suggest some sort of caps and put the savings towards better pay for these players and full insurance for the Minor- MLB players who basically get nothing,
That’s net money!!!
You have a few repeats in the “others” section now that you’ve expanded the article, Jeff.
What Tommy Pham said is not Earth shattering news. The fan base in Tampa is horrible because of the location of the stadium and the condition of the stadium.
The condition of the stadium is quite good! You obviously never been there.
Arenado has one foot out the door…
Agreed. Heading to LA next year
Serious question. How is it that Madison Bumgarner has made such little money comparatively in his career?
He also hasn’t complained one bit.
It’s incredibly said that one comment to start took me 7 swipes down just to start seeing baseball talk. You guys are funny.