Scanning down the board of MLBTR’s top fifty free agents, it’s easy to identify the large group of players who were good enough to command annual salaries approaching or exceeding ten million dollars, but as to whom contract length was in question entering the winter. Many of those players, in fact, have already agreed to terms.
With the dust having settled for such a large portion of the market, I thought it’d be interesting to see how MLBTR’s readership views some of those contracts. In making predictions on these players, we thought long and hard about where the deal would end up, often focusing on the question whether the player could secure a third guaranteed season. Some did; some didn’t.
Here, we’ll focus on those players who ended up with two-year contracts, when it seemed at least possible at the outset of the market that a lengthier deal would be available. The question is: which of these deals looks like the best buy for the team in question? (Response order randomized; link for app users.)
Robertson throws curveballs, so should age well, despite 34 and acted as his own agent. DRob, would be my answer. Consistent in volatile position + Club option is best option.
and u act as the same knowledge this site brings..thanks.
glad to know I can reread things
Dq!!!
This was a cool poll question by Jeff, because you can see the variety in the replies.
I gave you the reasons for mine:
Robertson has a devastating curveball
RP most volatile position yet DRob most consistent
No idea why you chose to target me.
Difference is, nobody knew who you voted for, let alone cared or cared why.
cubsfan2489….
I see you didn’t offer a similar reply (nobody knew who you voted for, let alone cared or cared why) to any other poster. Why is that?
Draqqueen you are a tool. Compared to the other reliever contracts David Robertson is an obvious choice. You offer zero insight or thought as you are a mental midget. Get the di ck out of your mouth and say something useful dou chebag
Geez guys, ease up. Change the channel if you don’t want to watch the program.
Good one!
Grandal if he counts, yes I know the second year is a mutually option but a 5 WAR player for 18MM a year is ridiculous.
Grandal is not a 5 WAR player. Not that I don’t think he’s good, just not factually a 5 WAR player.
My vote goes to Wilson for half the price, especially since the Mets were able to escape the Grandal 4 year deal.
He isn’t a 5 WAR player
Not only is he not a 5 WAR player… or a 4 WAR player for that matter, this article is about 2 year contracts. If you want to consider the option year, it’s not $18M, it’s $32M. Still a really good deal… but he had a 4 year $60M offer on the table and poo poo’d it.
My favorite comment by him is that he didn’t want to “water down” the AAV for elite catchers after him. No, not really you just screwed yourself by not taking a 55MM+ guarantee. And then realized no one was going near that offer again. It may end up alright for him in the end because if he produces he won’t have a QO attached but he’s bearing a lot of risk for a likely small financial gain.
Morton had my vote. He could easily slide in as a #1 on 12-15 different teams.
I voted Morton as well. Rays will be very good AGAIN this year.
Same
I’m not saying it’s the best deal, but Anibal Sanchez is under appreciated. I think $19 for two years is a great deal for the Nats..
Yes indeed. Great renaissance season for Anibal.
I was thinking the complete opposite. Even as it was happening last year on my team I felt like I was always looking over my shoulder waiting to get burned back to reality.
There’s a reason the Braves didn’t bring him back. They know it too, Sanchez is playing with fire. Eventually the other shoe will drop so it’s really a matter of when not if.
Good for him for the season he put together to net him this deal though, not taking any of that away from him. But my skepticism for it lasting remains the same as it did when he was on my own team last year
If you watched his last 3 years in a Tigers uniform, you would be a little more wary of the Sanchez contract. Yes, he added a pitch and had a nice showing in limited action for the Braves last year, but he’s a guy that the wheels can come off at any time. If I’m the Nats, I would have paid the extra cash for Happ or Morton, or taken a chance on Bucholz or Shoemaker, before guaranteeing Sanchez 2 years.
My vote is Morton. Great player on a nice deal. Excited to see what he can do for the rays
I don’t think even any tiger watched the last 3 yrs of thier team.
It’s a tossup between Morton and Ramos
Who knows the value of these contracts even before the first pitch of the season is thrown.
That’s the point of having the poll now.
so would you have said barry zito was the best signing of his free agent year. or greg maddux in the early 90s?
i was suprised about the anibal sanchez deal. excited to see how that plays out
I think that Morton is the best player on this list, but the fact that Ramos only got 19mil earns him my vote.
It’s incredible. He’s getting in 2 years what Grandal is getting in one. BVW outdid himself, and I am no Mets fan.
Or maybe he didn’t? Maybe this is the normal BVW. Food for thought.
The Edwin Diaz trade kinda cancels this one out. But I agree—nice move to get Ramos for that contract.
This season on The Walking Wounded a.k.a the NY Mets locker room. WILSON RAMOS.
As long as he’s healthy he’s a big upgrade over the dumpster fire the Mets had behind the plate but Ramos has an extensive injury history. Its a small risk but still a risky move.
Ramos missed some games last year, to rest his body, after the Phillies picked him up. I would be worried that he can’t handle the full load.
That said I still wish the Phillies had resigned him. Someone has to mentor Alfaro who hasn’t met a passed ball he didn’t like and teach him that you don’t have to come out of your shoes when swinging at pitches. The HR’s will come without creating gale force winds.
Ramos’ injury history is concerning and everybody is aware of that and that’s why he got a 2 year contract. It’s just that his contract was less than the Twins gave Jason Castro 2 years ago that’s stunning.
Ramos’ deal is a bargain. The brewers are essentially paying Grandal that for one year. TDA gets a lot of crap but he’s better than most backup C’s Around the league so they can deal with him playing a few more games than your typical #2.
I voted for Charlie Morton. He could definitely outplay that 15 AAV and pitch more like a 25-30 AAV SP. Initially wanted to go with Wilson Ramos, but I don’t entirely trust him not to turn into a pumpkin. He’s done it before and history likes to repeat itself. Really excited to see what Daniel Murphy can do in Colorado though–he was one of the best hitters in baseball in 2016 and 2017.
Yah my pick was Murphy. Not too long ago (2016 and 2017) Murphy was a 4-5 WAR player, and now he gets to play half of his games at Coors Field??? I wouldn’t be surprised if he puts up a season similar to those two seasons.
He can RIP 20-30 homers in D.C, just think what he will do in Colorado..
Ramos hasn’t turned into a pumpkin at all. He had one third of a season he was a slightly below average hitter in TB after coming off surgery. Which was understandable. He’s rock solid with the bat and not too bad with the glove. Injuries are a concern but performance isn’t really a concern for me. Since 2016hes been one of the best hitting C’s in the game. No concerns on that end.
Brantley is the biggest risk but has the potential for the best reward. Of this entire list, I find Murphy to have the least risk. He can’t possibly be any worse of a hitter hitting in COL and AZ consistently, and LA can play like a hitters park in July/August.
I have positives for most, but Brantley screams to me, he’ll be hurt for rest of career. I love his game but availability is best ability.
Murphy is one of most professional hitters in the game! He locks in for every pitch, every at bat, plus is student to be better all the time. I like him for much longer career and maybe continue to vector to crack hall of good, get respect votes for hall of fame.
Colorado numbers predict? .320/.345/.460 with 30 plus bombs and 90 plus ribbies? Plus on field coach teaches Story as example? Best deal!!!
People say that but Brantley’s injuries have only caused him to miss significant time in 2016 and 2017. Every other year he suits up in 140 plus games.
2012 – 149
2013 – 151
2014 – 156
2015 – 137
2016 – 15
2017 – 90
2018 – 143
I work physical therapy. See once big ones come in injury, build is second but always first now? Always first, is rehab, for life.
Brantley had ankle all cut open for surgery. Not scope or light. Had shoulder all cut open for surgery. Not scope or light. Always rehab shoulder and ankle, for life. Also, because break then cut for open to fix, then even best surgeon only leaves something that has lifetime fragile warning.
So many issues with Brantley. It’s not only about his injury history, but missing 200 games more than a healthy OF over the past 3 years has an impact.
Then there’s his performance in the field. Brantley is arguably the slowest OF in MLB by sprint speed metrics. 25.1 ft/sec last year. That’s horrible so teams are likely viewing his positive fielding contribution as nothing more than SSS and expecting him to be liability in the outfield.
Then there’s his performance at the plate. Brantley has only 3 years in 7 of 300+ PA of significant value above average at the plate, and last year was one of those years.
Teams have utterly no idea what player they’re going to get with Brantley, but expecting more than 3 WAR is ludicrous in my opinion.
Everybody is saying it, folks. Tremendous deal.
If Murphy only slugged .460 with 30 hrs and that BA he’d have to either have 700 PA’s or essentially hit nothing but singles for the rest of his hits.
Ramos, NYM. I wish the Dodgers had given him that deal.
This was surprisingly tough.
I ranked it
D-Rob, JA Happ, Charlie Morton, Andrew Miller, Daniel Murphy, DJ LeMahieu Michael Brantley, Annibal Sanchez, Wilson Ramos, Kelvin Herrera
1. Goes to D-Rob because a good bullpen wins games. Look at the Mets. World Class pitching but craptastic bullpen wasted a lot of great performances.
2, JA Happ-because he gives a world series contender stability in their rotation.
3.. Charlie Morton-Talented pitcher and a good deal. If he signed with a stronger team I’d rank him higher but he didn’t so his signing won’t be as impactful.
4. Andrew Miller if healthy he’s one of the best relievers in baseball.
5. Daniel Murphy is a great hitter.
6. DJ LeMahieu- With his defense and the protection he’ll get in the lineup I see him pushing Tulo to the bench before May with Gleyber shifting over to shortstop.
7. Michael Brantley-underrated hitter.
8.Annibal Sanchez-a bounce back year isn’t enough to make me a believer.
9. Wilson Ramos-very good catcher but injury prone on a team notorious for its players getting hurt.. What could possible go wrong. On the plus side he’s still an upgrade over the dumpster fire they’ve had behind the plate since Piazza retired.
10. Kelvin Hererra-bounce back candidate for a team aiming at mediocrity. I bet only White Sox fans voted for him.
Or you are just biased towards the Yankees? The fact that JA Happ is #2 leads me to believe so.
Well I am a Yankees fan but I tried not to be biased Normally I would put pitchers lower on the list because they don’t play as much as position players but after watching a weak Mets bullpen kill there season and a strong Yankees bullpen save our season for years it flipped the script for me.
As for why Happ at #2. Out of all the available starting pitchers on this list he’s :
A) the only lefty
B) Unlike Morton he’s started at least 30 games in 4 out of the past 5 years. Last year was the first time Morton pitched 30 games in a season in his entire career.
C) Unlike Morton he’s on a team that has a realistic chance at winning the division and is a real contender for the World Series. Charlie Morton is on a team that hopes to win a wild car spot. JA Happ’s games are going to be more important. Morton’s might be important if the dice rolls keep landing in favor of Tampa.
Regardless of his affiliation, he gave reasoning behind each pick. Seemed like a fair assessment
Exactly, I am a Yankees fan so I am sure that perspective has colored some of my views. But everyone on this list could be ranked at any place for many different reasons. I gave mines. Those guys chose to whine but not explain their own decisions.
Very fair assessment. No matter how thorough, someone will always find bias
Yankee fan much?
When you consider the cost of otherwise capably filling the position, it’s Ramos, no doubt.
Morton, a close second.
Charlie Morton and it’s not even close
Worst signing of that list? Probably Anibal Sanchez
Anibal Sanchez made most difficult transition that most can not, do not. Learn to pitch as old man who can not grip and rip anymore.
He and Morton are in a boat together. Both potential for great signing. But Morton might be a little gassed after Astro back to back runs. How do you think Anibal is worst? Curious, a lot?
Anibal’s velocity has gone down while Morton’s has gone up
The last time Anibal was good (2013) his velocity was much better
Not to mention Morton has repeated the performance two years in a row now. Anibal looks more like a potential fluke and it was hard to ever trust him even as it was happening because there was no apparent reason for it
Morton really became a different pitcher entirely so that’s the difference between the two
Anibal changed his repertoire. He’s not the same pitcher he was in Detroit. I think he can repeat.
2014, Sanchez was almost all star but 30 and tried to stay grip and rip it man. Of course hurt his shoulder. 2015, he tried to pitch through shoulder, stay grip/rip so numbers start for suffer. 2016, 2017, he tried to still be grip it rip man with repaired old shoulder and MLB players tee time launches off him.
Now he use control, which was always strong for him. Use his delivery deception. Use his mastery of all pitches.
Last year probably not fluke but renaissance or evolution of thrower into crafty fox. Plus, Nat defense has gloves with speed and arms. Like him, a lot, now? Maybe not change mind but open mind for possibles?
Your posts are easily my favorite on here.
The last time Anibal was good (2018)… there, fixed that for ya.
I’m stunned at the amount of people that voted for Wilson Ramos. Ramos has to stay healthy to make that a good deal for the Mets and staying healthy is something he hasn’t been able to do. Age 30 plus year old catchers who’ve had injury issues their whole careers don’t all of a sudden start playing more games.
I voted for Michael Brantley because despite the injuries he’s had in his career, he’s still good for 140 games or so every season and that’s enough games to justify his deal because his performance is really good. Astros got such a steal with him, I’m still just stunned about it.
Brantley plays a low value defensive position and his last few years combined with his sprint speed would say he won’t play it well. Add in multiple serious surgeries including the likelihood they’ll flare up with chronic limitations and his total inconsistent value at the plate, and Brantley isn’t likely to produce at more than a mediocre player level.
I agree. He’s an injury prone player who plays the most physically demanding position in the sport for a team whose players have a problem staying healthy. Its a good risk for the Mets to take but its still too big a risk to rank him as #1 on this list.
As always, MLBTR and its readers view the game through the lens of worshiping billionaires. I don’t care to vote on which player is the most underpaid for his value. Most of these players should have gotten 3+ years for 50% more income.
Analytics opened eyes wide, then wider. Painfully bright letters blaze sign read, “game is for young man!”
FA design has to change to reflect change. Analytics screaming and people now listen, “no more big long deals paying 30+ guy for what he did in 20s and won’t be able to repeat!”
Oh yeah, and now steroids and HGH clean-up make this even more true!
I’m not old. What MLBTR calls “team-friendly,” I call owner-friendly. The game is making billions and lots of these guys deserve more. Pre-FA guys are obviously even more underpaid.
Major agree on pre-FA guys being bigly overpaid! But young guys and their agents should have evolved and curbed owner big profit by adopt strategy for big extensions early. Don’t wait for FA greed and wrong hope that past days of “over pay old guy contracts” comes back.
Murphy is a huge upgrade who is an elite contact hitter and could put up Mookie Betts numbers in Coors.
Ramos is a close second but I don’t trust injury prone veterans on the Mets. Plus Mesoraco wasn’t all that bad.
Mets ill advised use Halo neuroscience for training. Science device tells players to not listen for body, and train harder, and then train harder. Injury big on over trained body. Good research for player future with team include look for training staff and training technique.
Ramos, could be super steal, if Ramos love himself, love game, invest in his own big system of health for long good play. But probably not.
So I agree, too, a lot, Murphy can be super beast at Coors, and look like Rockies stole a diamond for two year on cheap!
Funny DJ LeMahieu is easily the best of the bunch, which is supported statistically. But I digress, no Yankee would win such a poll. Based on the metrics, he is considered perhaps the best defensive 2nd baseman in the league and just two years removed from a batting title. Someone will chuck some absurd logic why he is “not” in response to this, but you have to ask yourself which of the players listed in the poll is considered the “best” at their respective position and you’ll select LeMahieu. He easily should have bagged a 3 year deal and a few years removed from being the type of player who gets a 4 year deal. Yankees stole him. Teams slept too long on him.
You are a brave person.
take this upvote
Do you always like your own posts?
Yes, he does.
You have some for a good convince, but I could not vote for LeMahieu because Yankee stadiums have bad Chuck Knoblauch disease for free agent 2B who come for a Yankee jersey.
LeMahieu will need vaccine develop so Knoblauch disease not make him forget for gloves and throws!
I joke, sorry, but you have some for a good convince!
I voted Lemahieu easily. The guys been a All Star, batting champion, or gold glove winner every yr since 2014, He’s also a 302ba 359obp avgd out over the last 5yrs, with sparkling defense.
Not to mention, awesome infield defender, .can hit for avg, and don’t K a ton is kinda perfect addition to the big boppers that do K a lot in the lineup. Lemahieu also raked hitting leadoff and leading off a inn. Great signing.
He’s not hitting at Coors anymore though. Look at his splits.
And his defense is solid, but range not spectacular.
LeMahieu had an unbelievable, luck driven, career year a couple years ago. The rest of his career says he can’t hit for beans, especially away from Coors. With excellent defense, LaMahieu is the kind of player who can stabilize a position with low-mediocre value that doesn’t hurt the team overall for a couple years while they put a plan in place to replace him.
LeMahieu had a typical year last year and was in the bottom 20% of starting 2B in value… including his elite defense. Just looking at his hitting, he was the 2nd worst qualified 2B in all of MLB for wRC+
I get that Rockies fans love the players who stick around their franchise for more than 2-3 years, but LeMahieu is just a guy. The fact he got a 2yr contract was surprising to me. The fact he got a 2yr contract for more than $15M shocked me.
Ramos. Grandal got a huge one year salary. The price tag on JTR was too high. McCann limited his own market. The Mets did well to solve the position at such a low cost.
Looks like I’m the only guy who voted for Herrera…..and no, I’m not a WS fan……
But it’s all about impact, and while there are some pretty “nice” signings here, Herrera could, body permitting, become a top-5 closer. At which point he becomes very cheap. And he’s not 110 years old, like most of these guys.
But I definitely see the case for Lowrie and Brantley both of whom I’d love to see do well.
Could go with either Ramos or Morton easily. Took the every day plus bat narrowly.
Happs 47-21 3.44 his last 3yrs and was 7-0 2.98era for yanks after being acquired. They only signed him for 2yrs. Uhhh, he’s shown zero sign of regression. The guys been light yrs more consistent then Corbin, who got crazy money and years. Yanks have done brilliantly this entire off-season, getting pieces to add to a already brilliant team. They were smart enough not to add the over hyped Harper or Machado, who carries a ton of risk with his laziness, which I’m sure 3 or 4 hundred mill guaranteed over 10yrs isn’t gonna make better..lol Yanks building a lot like they did in the mid to late 90s. When they got away from that, they won 1title in 4ever, with more often then not a aging team that had very few movable contracts. Kudos to them for realizing this and not falling for the bored fans and media of the off-season. If it were Yelich or Betts, or Trout, or Cole, or many more out there, they’d almost certainly been in the mix. I’m totally for there offseason
Agree some, you have a good convince. Plus, plus, how scary if Yankees stay being smart money? How scary? Plus, lately their prospects are panning out. Biggest bag of smart money AND best player development system forming? Scary. A lot!
Where the love forLowrie? Been playing great past couple years?
I have to choose Daniel Murphy.
The guy can rake. You know? I mean, he can just flat-out mash.
By moving him to 1B you take pressure off of him, defensively. He is much more stationary and won’t have all that legwork going on, now that he is off 2B. Just all that moving around can be strenuous and tire the body.
Then, there’s the fact that he was an NL MVP candidate not more than a couple/few seasons ago, he can still slash, and he only costs $12MM/season. He’s actually a bargain.
Last, but certainly not least, he is moving to THE best hitter’s park in all of MLB, Coors Field, in the thin air of Denver, Colorado.
I honestly think the potential is there for Daniel Murphy to have a downright monstrous year with the Rox in 2019.
I can’t argue with a lot of these guys, but how did Daniel Murphy get that many votes to place second? If he’s the replacement for LeMahieu, which seems to be the case, they’re replacing a guy with a DRS of 67 with a guy with a -83 DRS. I guess some people believe it’s all about hitting, and defense isn’t important, but we’re talking 2B, not 1B, or LF. As to hitting, yeah he might go off playing in Coors, but he is 33, and one has to question whether his sub-par 2018 is the beginning of a decline. Besides all his hitting numbers being down, his platoon splits were down quite a bit last season. And at $12M a year I bet the Rockies hope he improves on that 0.8 WAR from Fangraphs, or the negative WAR from BB Ref., from 2018.
We are talking 1B actually. Murphy will be playing first base
I vote for Miller, if he’s healthy and could get back at his level, hi is a beast and big difference maker, like Hader for Brewers.
But i will say this one, probably could vote for any of this guys and it’s not bad guess. Like we see in poll results and in comments, all this are great signings., because it’s a 2yrs contract and not a albatros one, and if some teams has option for 3rd it’s a great thing.
Health and players who escape getting injured will win this one in the end, and i think that in the future we will see much more of this 2-3 years contract, it give you quick window to win for those years , not cost a lot money and if a team is out of the race easily can be flipped for some prospects.
Also , players with this short contract will not get lazy , and will give you his best to earn another paycheck and stay in the game.
First off…read my post above yours. If you take that in, you’ll see how he got that many votes and should probably be leading this poll.
He isn’t the replacement for D.J.
Murph will be manning 1B.
By the way, his numbers were down last year because he had off-season microstructure surgery on his knee and missed the first half of the season.
At $12MM/per year, he is a steal.
And you say 33 like that is decrepit. The guy is a pure, professional hitter. He could still be raking at 38. This is a guy who, as a hitter, could age like a fine wine. Paul Molitor-style. Or in close proximity.
There’s a case to be made for Brantley and Ramos…but they have to stay healthy, and that’s been a challenge for them. There’s also a case for D.J. LeMahieu, but I don’t think he makes the same impact as Daniel Murphy does with his new ball club, and Murph is much cheaper.
It’s Daniel Murphy.
If i’m the owner green-lighting a two-year commitment…this is the move I make.
*Microfracture*
I’ll also point to this…
When Daniel Murphy was activated from the DL at mid-season, he slumped for all of maybe, two weeks.
Then he went on a friggin’ tear and was one of the hottest hitters in MLB.
I say he picks up right where he left off in ’18.
I stated in an earlier post that Murphy was cheaper than LeMahieu, my bad, yeah, same price.
I take Murph for $12MM over D.J.
Both are terrific contact hitters, but Murph brings much more power.
I also just think D.J. is part of the supporting cast in NY, while Murph will be an enormous upgrade at 1B over what they (Rox) were getting from Ian Desmond and Ryan McMahon.
Murphy for that money will be gold in Coors, though i do like Ramos as a second pick.
All of them are pretty good deals except for Sanchez and Lemahieu.
Andrew Miller can be lights out when called upon.
Voted Ramos. A starting catcher with plus value on a cheap contract? Considering the scarcity of catchers who bring that potential to the table makes his contract surprisingly good. The Twins gave fricking Jason Castro a 3yr $24M deal 2 years ago. A cast off from the Astros who can’t hit at all based solely on his pitch framing reputation.
Ramos is excellent at blocking, well above average at controlling the run game, and adequate at pitch framing. Since his LASIK surgery he has a wRC+ of 120. If Ramos didn’t have injury history, he’d be on par with Grandal, looking at 4yr $60M+ deals. So if Ramos remains healthy (big if), this will be an incredible steal. Potentially 6-8 WAR over 2 years for $19M at a position of great scarcity? The floor on this contract is better than break even.
If Ramos maintains his current level of production and can manage to stay healthy, without a doubt he would top this list. However, neither of those things is close to a guarantee at age 31.
Regardless, as a Mets fan I love the signing and only have him behind Morton in voting due to the aforementioned concerns.
Morton is the best deal as if he gets hurt he is paid almost nothing
Surprised Morton didn’t get more love. He’d be my choice with Ramos and Murphy behind him.
All this talk of Charlie Morton…smh…he wasn’t even sure he wanted to pitch again this season. He’s in the twilight of his injury riddled career. There is so little chance rays get positive value for that contract.