While we’re not even halfway through the offseason yet, the start of the new year feels like a natural checkpoint to look at what the National League’s 15 teams have done to upgrade themselves so far this winter. Specifically, we’ll see what each NL team has done in regards to its least-productive position in 2018, as determined by bWAR. Needless to say, we’ll ignore the DH category in this look at the National League’s clubs, and we can also set aside the pinch-hitter category unless a team has made significant strides with its bench. The breakdown…
Braves (Relief pitching. 2.0 bWAR): Atlanta wins the door prize as the team with the best “worst” position, as you might expect from a division winner’s well-rounded roster. It could also be argued that the Braves could improve from within, in the form of a healthy season from closer Arodys Vizcaino and some new blood in the form of the team’s many young starter candidates, who could be deployed as relief depth. Still, a top-tier reliever (as either a closer or set-up man) would go a long way towards making the Braves’ pen into a true strength. Atlanta has been more focused on position players and starting pitchers than relievers this winter, though the Braves had been linked to Edwin Diaz and Joakim Soria before those two landed on new teams. There has been some speculation that Atlanta could pursue a reunion with Craig Kimbrel, but only if Kimbrel drastically lowers his reported asking price. Given the Braves’ prospect depth and GM Alex Anthopoulos’ creativity in swinging deals, the team can’t be counted out in any sort of trade scenario for a high-profile reliever.
Brewers (Shortstop, -0.1 bWAR): Orlando Arcia turned in a sub-replacement season that saw him post his typical subpar batting line and also middling defensive numbers (-0.3 UZR/150, though a +4 Defensive Runs Saved). There hasn’t been much indication that Milwaukee is ready to move on from Arcia, however, since he’s only just 24 and his hitting did improve later in the season, plus he was actually one of the Brewers’ hottest bats during their postseason run. The Brewers have been more focused on second base upgrades rather than shortstops, though the team was one of many who observed Troy Tulowitzki’s recent open workout for scouts. Tulowitzki fits the model of a short-term veteran who could back up Arcia and also provide cover at second or third base in a pinch, and he could be a lottery ticket on the off-chance that he stays healthy and regains any of his old All-Star form.
Cardinals (Relief pitching, -2.7 bWAR): The Andrew Miller signing was a bold strike for a Cards pen that has struggled to find consistent left-handed relief in recent years. Miller struggled with injuries in 2018, though if he returns to his form of the previous three seasons, he is the type of elite arm that can greatly enhance a relief corps by himself. St. Louis probably won’t add another premium reliever in the wake of their deal with Miller, though another depth arm could be acquired, or perhaps a veteran free agent who is still available deep into Spring Training and could be had at a bargain price.
Cubs (Center field, 1.8 bWAR): Albert Almora displayed some excellent glovework but didn’t hit, while Ian Happ had a 106 wRC+ but was a mediocre fielder in his 403 2/3 innings as a center fielder last season. Jason Heyward also saw some center field time last season and contributed his usual good defensive performance, while still struggling to contribute at the plate. It seems likely that Chicago will continue with this mix in 2019, as the club might use what seemingly limited payroll flexibility it has on other areas of need.
Diamondbacks (Catcher and right field, -0.3 bWAR): After being acquired from the Cardinals as part of the Paul Goldschmidt trade, Carson Kelly goes from being blocked by Yadier Molina to being Arizona’s catcher of the future. Kelly also figures to be a big part of the Diamondbacks’ present, as he will likely get the bulk of playing time as the D’Backs split at-bats between Kelly, Alex Avila, and John Ryan Murphy. As for right field, the D’Backs are hoping for a better year from Steven Souza Jr., who was limited to just 72 games and 272 plate appearances while battling a nagging pectoral injury.
Dodgers (Second base, 0.7 bWAR): Breakout star Max Muncy and super-utilityman Enrique Hernandez are the Dodgers’ top two current options at second base, and going with this pair could be an improvement simply by dint of moving on from the unproductive trio of Brian Dozier, Logan Forsythe, and Chase Utley. Still, with Muncy and Hernandez perhaps needed elsewhere around the diamond as part of the Dodgers’ perpetual juggling of positions, L.A. has also been linked to DJ LeMahieu and Josh Harrison as potential free agent targets.
Giants (Left field, -0.2 bWAR): It’s been a very quiet winter in San Francisco, as new GM Farhan Zaidi continues to evaluate his roster and figure out what to do with the Giants’ plethora of highly-paid but underachieving players. Outfield continues to be San Francisco’s most obvious need, as the team will look to add some experience to a young mix of Chris Shaw, Mac Williamson, Austin Slater, and projected everyday center fielder Steven Duggar. Whatever additions the Giants do make, they’re likely to be of the short-term variety, so you can probably cross the Giants off the list of potential Bryce Harper suitors.
Marlins (Relief pitching, -8.3 bWAR): Yes, you’re reading that correctly. The Marlins were far worse than even the league’s 29th-best bullpen, the Royals and their -3.0 bWAR collective mark. Furthermore, Miami has already traded one of its better arms in Kyle Barraclough, moved to the Nationals in a rare early-October swap. The rebuilding Marlins certainly won’t be spending big on any major upgrades, and will instead likely look to add a couple of low-cost veterans to try and stabilize the relief corps as much as possible.
Mets (First base, -0.6 bWAR): Brodie Van Wagenen’s roster overhaul has included some action at first base, as Jay Bruce (who probably wasn’t going to find much time in the crowded Mets outfield) was sent to the Mariners as part of the blockbuster Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz deal. While top prospect Peter Alonso figures to arrive sometime in 2019, the Mets have a variety of options in the meantime. Jeff McNeil or Todd Frazier could see time at first, former well-regarded Dominic Smith is still in the mix, or Cano could get some first base at-bats while McNeil spells him at second base.
Nationals (Second base, -0.6 bWAR): You may be surprised to learn that catcher wasn’t Washington’s biggest weak point in 2018, though the Nats’ backstops weren’t far behind at -0.4 bWAR. While the newly-acquired Yan Gomes and Kurt Suzuki should be a big help behind the plate, the Nats also haven’t been lax in observing the second base market. LeMahieu, Harrison, Dozier, Marwin Gonzalez, and Jed Lowrie are some of the names Washington has reportedly been in contact with, so it seems likely that some type of addition will be made before Opening Day. Internally, Wilmer Difo is on hand, plus Howie Kendrick will be back after missing most of last season due to a ruptured Achilles.
Padres (Starting pitching, -4.1 bWAR): It seems like the Padres have checked in on virtually every pitcher available in free agency or the trade market, as they are aiming to upgrade their rotation with at least one frontline name. The long list of names linked to the Friars includes Dallas Keuchel, Noah Syndergaard, Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Sonny Gray, Marcus Stroman, Yusei Kikuchi, Mike Leake, and probably a couple dozen more we haven’t yet heard about. With the game’s deepest minor league system, the Padres can be a player in any trade negotiation, though the club is reportedly unwilling to deal any of its very top prospects (Fernando Tatis Jr., MacKenzie Gore or Luis Urias), which could be a setback in trying to land a true ace-level starter.
Phillies (Shortstop, -1.7 bWAR): Philadelphia addressed this position in decisive fashion, landing Jean Segura in a major five-player trade with the Mariners. The chain reaction of the trade also improved the team at another position, as Rhys Hoskins’ dreadful left field glove balanced out his strong offense, leaving the Phillies with just 0.1 bWAR from its left fielders in 2018. Hoskins’ move to first base is a big help in that respect, and the signing of Andrew McCutchen also provides a notable boost in right field, where the Phillies had more sub-replacement level production (-1.0 bWAR). More could still be on the way for the Phillies, who have also been interested in several top pitchers and relievers, plus (of course) Harper and Manny Machado.
Pirates (Shortstop, -0.7 bWAR): Given how little the Bucs got out of the position last season, the team was willing to let longtime shortstop Jordy Mercer depart in free agency. Prospect Kevin Newman is penciled in for more playing time in 2019 and Erik Gonzalez was also acquired as a more general utility infield option, though Pittsburgh has also been looking around at other veteran shortstop options. The Pirates are another team that has scouted Tulowitzki, plus the Bucs have also been rumored to have interest in free agent Freddy Galvis and the Diamondbacks’ Nick Ahmed.
Reds (Center field, 0.3 bWAR): The outfield as a whole didn’t produce much for the Reds last season, with just 0.5 bWAR at each corner spot to go along with the lack of production in center field. As we enter 2019, however, Cincinnati could very have an entirely different starting outfield come Opening Day. The newly-acquired Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp will be sharing time with Scott Schebler and Jesse Winker in right field and left field, while Schebler is currently atop the center field depth chart after Billy Hamilton was non-tendered. The Reds have been busy this winter but have yet to really expand payroll as promised, so the team still has room to make a big splash in center field — maybe even in the form of A.J. Pollock, as the Reds reportedly have interest in the free agent. On the trade front, the Reds have also asked the Braves about Ender Inciarte.
Rockies (First base, -0.8 bWAR): After showing interest in a wide array of available first baseman, the Rockies landed their much-needed big bat by signing Daniel Murphy to a two-year deal that contains a mutual option for the 2021 season. Murphy didn’t play until June 12 due to a recovery from microfracture knee surgery, and after an understandable slow start to get his timing back, he hit .328/.366/.508 over his final 273 plate appearances of the 2018 season. Now that he’ll be playing in Coors Field and will have an easier defensive assignment as a first baseman rather than at second base, it’s easy to imagine Murphy thriving in Colorado’s lineup. Of further note, the Rockies were probably the league’s most top-heavy team last season, reaching the NLDS thanks to giant contributions from Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story and the starting rotation and relatively little else around the diamond. The Rox also received a negative-bWAR score at catcher (-0.3), as well as a cumulative 0.8 bWAR from their entire outfield. Little has been done to address these areas yet this winter, go GM Jeff Bridich and his front office certainly still have some work to do before Opening Day.
MetsYankeesRedSox
Happy New Year 2019
Down votes please!
outinleftfield
Ask and ye shall receive.
bravesfan
I’ve been arguing forever that the braves needed to upgrade that bullpen and this market was one of the better markets to do that in. Starting pitching needs help yes, but it’s not horrible and these young guys should take a step forward this year. We can find someone to fill the final outfield spot. But gosh, that bullpen needs almost a complete change. I think we need two more shut down guys to make us a totally different team in 2019. That’s all I think we need. Even if we didn’t get Josh Donaldson, that bullpen change would be huge
Dan Rogers
K….
arenado28
Wow
mj-2
I’ve been saying this from Day 1 as well. A true ace would be nice but not a real need.
The bullpen on the other hand was horrendous last year and in the playoffs. It should have been the top priority from the beginning and I’m shocked they’ve done nothing so far.
There’s still time, but they need to stop pretending it’s not their biggest weakness before everyone good is gone.
Central Valley
Blockbuster trade : Will Smith, Tony Watson and Madison Bumgarner to Atlanta ?
What’s your offer?
clepto
My offer is a downvote.
RunDMC
Unless that includes superstar-rapper Will Smith and golfer Tony Watson – that’s not a blockbuster trade. MadBum is old news. Please let’s move on.
RunDMC
I was thinking of Tom Watson, but thought is the same. MadBum is not an ace anymore. Even if he was, it’s only 1 year of him. We didn’t save up young arms to trade them for a bum shoulder and a lack of motor-vehicle skills.
daved
ACE is such an overused term now in baseball. There aren’t more than about 10 true Aces in baseball now. The transition to relying on the bullpen prevents it.
joeshmoe11
I’d rather have Jackson Heights’ very own, Mister Randy….. Watson!
SEXUAL CHOCOLATE!
hiflew
Ace was originated as the term for the best starter on a team, not the best on some 10 imaginary fantasy teams. So according to the original definition of the term, there are 30 aces in baseball now.
bhambrave
“Blockbuster trade : Will Smith, Tony Watson and Madison Bumgarner to Atlanta ?
What’s your offer?”
Sam Freeman.
its_happening
Donaldson was brought in to close games.
mj-2
Part of me wonders if Kimbrel would take a 4 year deal with a 5th year option that vests based on performance rather than a team or player option.
This posturing that Kimbrel needs to drop to 3 years for AA to seriously consider him is a joke. If he’s willing to take a 4 year deal of some kind Braves better be making a serious competitive offer to him.
RunDMC
True, but there’s still a lot of reasonable alternatives for backend bullpens that is affecting Kimbrel’s market right now. Depending on the years/AAV, I would prefer to have (also AL native) David Robertson – if Kimbrel really is set on rewriting closer contract history books.
DTD
It seems like their banking on Vizcaino and O’Day being healthy and Sabotka and whichever young guys miss out on the rotation being the improvement. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if they make a big trade with Texas to bring in LeClerc and one of Gallo/Mazara with them sending pitching prospects back.
SoCalBrave
That bullpen that has a 2.0 bWAR needs a complete change… that’s ridiculous and ignorant. Yes, it needs an upgrade for sure, but right now we need a right fielder more than anything. The bullpen can be figured out during spring training and upgraded during the season.
batty
-8.3
How is that even possible?
dust44
It’s the Marlins… Anything is possible with that $hit $how if a team
ScottRolen
The Phillies weakest position is young, prime time superstar position talent. There are two guys available who can fill this need for the Phillies, but John “Stupid Money” Middleton has failed to put his “John Middleton” on the two contracts.
leftcoaster
Neither wants to live in Philly. Can you blame them?
cscd1111
I’ll give you 10 years 380 million reasons why the Phillies will sign Machado?
wrigleywannabe
Because no one else will offer that or more?
kbarr888
Neither would HAVE to Live in Philly.
Both will have more than enough money to come to the stadium in a Helicopter, if they want to live 1 hr or more away (driving time)……LOL
It sounded like “Neither wants to PLAY for the Phillies” to me. If they really want one of them, they will have to truly offer “stupid money” to get them, and that’s probably NOT a wise investment.
Teams want players who WANT to play…..don’t they?
wrigleywannabe
Right, maybe he doesn’t realize all he has to do is say the word and it happens.
Philly fans are ridiculous.
ScottRolen
The Yankees offered Cano $175 million. The Mariners offered $240.
240
-175
—–
65 million
There’s the answer for the Phillies. $130 million in “stupid money” and both Harper and Machado are Phillies teammates.
nats3256
If I’m a older guy or a coming off injury guy, I would be all about signing with Miami and believing in myself, with the hope of getting traded to a contender. but that -8 is bat crap crazy.
daved
The Cardinals weakness is their front office. When will they replace Gepetto and Pinocchio? If a player has a 3 year slump, he would be gone in a minute. So why treat the front office any different? Oh, I know why, because Dewitt only cares about 3.4M sheeple grazing at the stadium. Here lies the problem with that, Mr. Dewitt. On most nights, about 25% of the stadium is empty, so even though you sold the tickets, you are missing out of extra money from concessions and merchandise. Keep putting that so called “competitive” team on the field instead of building a championship caliber club.
clepto
Paging Cards81. Paging Cards81. He will downvote and sternly disagree.
kbarr888
Yes he will, but that doesn’t mean that there isn’t SOME truth to what daved stated.
The Front Office there DOES seem to play it too conservative. They do have some pretty Stiff Rules that they live by.
Not saying they are completely wrong, because they have done some things right.
I do think they are afraid to make another bad signing (Fowler, Leake)….and they took a solid stab at signing Heyward (and they’re very glad he didn’t take “the highest offer”…).
Fans DO fill the stadium, even after complaining about the lack of action. Can’t blame DeWitt if he’s making a fortune off the Fans, without spending all his money……LOL
cards81
Lol I don’t really want to waste my time on the always pessimistic daved…and according to Dave’s logic there should be a lot of turnover in MLB front offices
daved
Cards81, you just responded, yet you didn’t want to waste time. And not sure if you noticed, but EVERY year there are multiple teams with front office turnover.
daved
Don’t confuse pessimism with realism.
cards81
Lol I responded to clepto not you Dave…hey but why not I’m not working today…how are the cardinals in a 3 year slump? Because they didn’t make the playoffs? You do realize they had winning records every year of this so called slump…they also battled till the end every year of this slump…Dave go outside take a walk and focus on some positive aspects of your life…maybe even try to think of some positives about the cardinals
daved
My life is just fine, thank you very much. And yes, when you miss the playoffs 3 years in a row, people need to be held accountable. It happens in all sports, and in business for that matter. People, coaches, managers, players “battle” all the time. So what? That’s their freaking job. They put the blame on Matheny, but who hired the dolt? Another dolt. Maybe you should go for a walk and think about what is real and what is not. Real life business is about results, not the battle and not the almost.
EndinStealth
No, its complete pessimism.
jlmini10
The front offices job is to put together winning teams who win the World Series. During Mozeliaks tenure, is there a GM/president of baseball ops who has either won more games or more championships? Maybe 2 or 3? All he does is put together winning teams year after year. The vast majority of people, correctly, are happy that Mo is running this team. And I’m happy to see where he takes this team for as long as he has the job.
daved
DeWitt thanks you, and he wants to know if you will be on their 2019 sheeple poster?
jlmini10
If you mean support the team that I root for that plays meaningful baseball for 162 or more games per year then yes. And I’ll be watching a perennial top 5 player who was acquired for blocked backups by this front office.
Also I thank Dewitt right back. He fostered an environment where the product is above average at worst and continues to win year after year.
Payne Train
lol – again with the awful digs at the STL organization . Daved, your a clown
EndinStealth
He is a Cubs fan pretending to be a Cards fan. There is no way a fan of the Cardinals acts that way.
daved
Baaaaaaaaa
EndinStealth
Yet you dont like being called a troll. You cant have it both ways troll. Once people realize you are a Cubs fan posing as a Cards fan ALL your posts make sense. The only other way they make sense is if your continuously drunk.
daved
2 things, troll. I’m not a Cubs fan, and learn how to use your and you’re.
EndinStealth
Wah I miss used a word on a message board. You grow more pathetic each post.
EndinStealth
Blah blah Mo blah blah puppet reference blah blah spend blah blah sheeple blah blah. There just copy and paste that . That is your response to every post. It will save you time. Your schtick got old along time ago Cubs fan.
daved
When all else fails and you can’t respond, just do this. I guess everyone who makes a critical remark about STL is automatically a Cubs fan. Talk about blah blah, you and the other minions never ever question the decisions of the front office. That’s so sweet.
EndinStealth
I question all the time. I’m just an adult about it. Cubs fan.
daved
You really are an insecure little man.
EndinStealth
Lmao. I think you just looked in the mirror and said that. Your posts repeatedly beg for attention. If there is one person on here that is so childish they have to throw a temper tantrum every time the Cardinals are mentioned it is you easily. It shows a ton about your character that you believe you have to belittle people that disagree with you so that you attempt to build yourself up. Cubs fan without a doubt.
daved
Endinstealth, aren’t you disagreeing with me on EVERY comment of mine? So, thanks for the commenting you hypocrite.
EndinStealth
Psssttt buy a dictionary look up hypocrite. Then show me where I disagreed with you on all your post. What I do is point out how immature you are. You lack the ability to make a concise argument without calling people names. I think signing Cecil and giving him a NTC was terrible. Same with Fowler. I said both at the time. I do it without making a fool of myself. You think you’re being edgy but you actually make people laugh at you. No one with take a shred of your post with sincerity because you play the troll card so well. But you know this. You like being a troll. So I will continue to troll you specifically. You actually make it easy.
daved
You’re so dumb that it’s impossible to carry on a conversation with you. I feel like I’m talking to a person that either has an IQ below 100 or a 6 year old? Which is it? It would help me to decide whether I should move on with this discussion. Bottom line is this. You’re a typical elitist Cards fan. It’s how you and about 90% of them are. I’ll help you out as to what a hypocrite is. Point example: Your comment: “You like being a troll. So I will continue to troll you specifically.” Have a nice day, troll. I’m glad you have finally admitted that you are one. Me on the other hand, I’m not one nor will I ever admit to being one, because in your mind, a troll is someone who doesn’t have the same mindset of ideas as you. And for that, I thank God I don’t.
EndinStealth
Yep you’re a troll and a Cubs fan. Everyone can see through you idiocy. I troll you because idiot that is what you deserve and will get. Enjoy TROLL.
EndinStealth
Nope. See you completely clueless. You actually get it but play like you dont. A person can disagree all they want. That’s little Cubs fan is common sense. It’s when you feel you have to call people names that you become a troll. But like I said before you know this. You enjoy it.
daved
Once again you insecure dolt….NOT a Cubs fan. You’re so hell bent on thinking that. You couldn’t be further from the truth. BTW, isn’t calling someone a “troll” calling someone a “Name”, Mr, Hypocrite? Keep posting so you can continue to show your hypocritical ways. My guess is you’re a Democrat.
EndinStealth
I’ve already conceded I’m trolling you. Darn this particular Cub fan is slow. I will continue to troll you. You cant be this slow. You have to be pretending.
Central Valley
The SF Giants have given Mr. Zaidi an absolute mess to fix.
With their payroll, you can’t have this many garbage players. Their outfield is an embarrassment. They’ve made every wrong move they could in recent years.
Trade everyone with value.
pustule bosey
crawford and posey need to stay, at the very least you would be trading them when their value is at a low if you moved them now. everyone else should be fair game to move though you may get more for the relievers at the deadline
quxdraw
Watson, Smith, and Bumgardner only players with value. The rest have no trade clauses or because of the money and length of their contract will be next to impossible to deal
quxdraw
Bumgarner, hate auto correct
willymayshayse
Amazing that there is NO mention of the rotation pieces that the Reds have added when ANYONE who has seen a Reds game in the last 4 years knows THAT was the weakest link in the chain. Not a lot of new information here, definitely not comprehensive coverage.
leftcoaster
Roark and Wood are just guys. They’ll both have era’s over 4, especially in that park.
Biggie22
Agreed! The Reds starting pitching WAR the last several years may rival the Marlins bullpen WAR lol
wrigleywannabe
You wanted comprehensive in a piece this short, with all NL teams included?
123redsox
Daniel Murphy could see time at first if they feel Brendan Rodgers is good to go at second
DTD
Murphy was signed to play first.
leftcoaster
Meanwhile Desmond moves to the outfield and dynamic Tapia continues to rot on the vine.
mistry gm
Does the writer realize that Almora hit .286? The Cubs have Baez who will be one of the best shortstops (if Maddon will leave him there) and right now, NO SECOND BASEMAN.
RicoD
I was thinking the same thing. Not fair to say he didn’t hit, because he hit quite well.
wrigleywannabe
Almora had a steep decline in the second half.
Baez has better defensive numbers at 2B than SS.
I guess, you forgot about Zobrist
petrie000
And Happ.
And Bote.
Yeah, 2b, not a problem.
Almora’s passable as a glove 1st CF, just don’t expect a lot of power from him.
daved
Batting average? Really? Almora was 16% BELOW the league average with a .701 OPS and 84 OPS+. This isn’t the Jon Jay League. This is the major leagues. I like Almora’s defense, but his offense was pretty poor.
ChiSoxCity
Don’t waste your time with Cubs fans. Over-optimism is the glue elixir that jeeps them sane.
ChiSoxCity
*keeps
jlmini10
Actually, the Jon Jay league would be an exactly league average league according to his career OPS plus of 100. His prime years as a cardinal actually included 4 seasons of at least 112 ops plus. So comparing Almoras 2018 to Jon jay does Jon jay quite a disservice
daved
As you alluded to, Jon Willie Jay hasn’t had a 100+ OPS season since 2014. I don’t care what he did 4 years ago. Besides, his defense is nowhere near Almora’s, and don’t even bring up the bogus GG finalist this year for playing 50 games in RF for Arizona. That was as big a joke as Rafael Palmeiro back in the day playing 28 games at 1B and winning the GG. The mere fact Willie Rag Arm Concrete Shoes Jay was nominated tells me 2 things. 1) The award is a joke and always has been. And 2) There isn’t much talent in RF in the NL. And by the way, up until 2018, Almora was right on the Jay Line of OPS+..
jlmini10
Did I bring that up or are you just yelling about a perfectly adaqute baseball player for some reason? Not sure why you use a former quality player on a World Series winning team as your whipping boy. And why would you not compare Almora to jays prime years? Cherry picking a guys stats in his 30s to compare to a young player doesn’t paint a good or fair picture. Also Almora has 100 or less ops+ every year. Jay was at least 112 his first three years. So no, Almoras ops+ was not in line with jay over his first three years. You are wrong.
daved
I’m not “Yelling”, but it seems I’ve gotten you all riled up. Shave that wool off your neck and settle down. Jon Jay sucks. It’s that simple. He’s a 1 tool player. They are a dime a dozen in baseball. Why do you think he’s looking for his 6th team in 5 years?
Samuel
The trouble with articles like this and thinking like this is……..
Winning teams are built on their strengths, and expanded out from there. Same as how quality players develop.
Which brings up the point that while off-season moves are fun to discuss, what impacts a new baseball season the most are players that improve or regress.
The regression is easier to predict as it primarily deals with veteran players that deteriorate physically and/or opposing teams coaching staffs look at film of during the winter and make adjustments that the player cannot counter.
The improvement is much harder to predict. This can be found in rookies that come up and impact a team; but primarily it’s found in young players where for a few of hundreds of reasons they change their approach. Analytics cannot forecast this, as they only show what happened in the past. There is no way they know that a player is changing. Three classic examples the past 5-6 years……
1. Cory Kluber got traded from the Padres to the Indians. He was in circles in the minors when a coach @ Triple-A Columbus taught him a new out pitch. For whatever reason, it worked with Kluber. Combined with his existing repertoire, Kluber became dominant. He was a “late bloomer”.
2. JD Martinez. A world of talent with the Astros. For years did what the coaches told him to – work counts, hit foul balls, get his OBP up. Astros released him. That winter he studied video of power hitters he respected – especially Miguel Cabrera and Albert Puhols. Hired a hitting coach that winter to change his mechanics. Had a number of offers. Took one from the Tigers so he could watch Mjggy daily and learn from him. Immediately had a monster year.
3. Jacob deGrom in 2018. New pitching coach Dave Eiland noticed a minor variance in his mechanics that at times caused problems. Adjustments were made. After 4 years as a very good pitcher, deGrom became elite.
And how about Blake Snell in 2018. Who saw that coming? Who truly knows if he’s a one-hit wonder; a guy that will hang around as a so-so pitcher for 10 years as teams hope to rediscover his 2018 magic; or if in fact has made a breakthrough and will prove to be one of MLB’s premier pitchers for years?
Coaches and teammates are always offering tips. Analytic people are sorting and forever writing little snippets of code hoping to find the motherlode. We fans can watch.
Tom E. Snyder
Morton & Cole with the Astros.
daved
Samuel, when did Martinez “do what coaches told him” when he was with Houston? His OBP in Houston went DOWN each year and was actually quite pathetic. 2011-2013 OBP was .319/311/272.
snotrocket
Pokes Zaidi with a stick… “Do something.”
EndinStealth
I’d be surprised if he can do much this year. He has inherited a dumpster fire. With that said he is a smart man. It might take him a hair longer than people will like but I’m sure he will get them back in contention.
Dorothy_Mantooth
San Fran needs a 10 year plan. With aging veterans and a horrible farm system, things are going to get really ugly out there. The worst thing they can do is play .500 ball. They should tank, get some high draft picks, and look to contend in 5-6 years.
Jean Matrac
Exaggerate much? How do they have 2 top 100 prospects with a “horrible farm system”? It’s not great, it’s not even average, but it’s far from the worst. It’s not going to take anywhere near 10 years for them. With their recent losing seasons they’re getting better draft spots, so it is improving. Plus, any player they have now with a bounce back season will likely bring back prospects at the deadline. They weren’t getting a good draft position when they were winning, the reason their farm is below average now, which is what all winning teams, like the Red Sox, will have to deal with.
Toakland
Ignoring the A’s, like usual.
clepto
Comprehension a little off?
snotrocket
Just like the so called A’s fans do.
bhambrave
Durp.
Cat Mando
Are you sure your name isn’t Toke-Land?
petrie000
Did the A’s move to the national league while nobody was looking?
SoCalBrave
I think the Braves biggest need is right field where we currently have a -0.5 bWAR by the name of Adam Duvall.
egrossen
Almora “didn’t hit”? Im not saying he was great or anything, but that’s not true at all. Especially in the 1st half. He hit well over .300, and still finished in the .280’s
daved
Once again, get with Baseball in the 21st Century. Almora was 16% BELOW league average in offense. Deal with it and get off the hang up of BA.
ChiSoxCity
The Cubs get now run production from Almora, and their entire OF in general. Almora and Heyward had over 900 plate appearances between the two of them, and hit a total of 10 HRs. RBIs and runs scored are abysmal too. Cubs fans stay fixated on the positives, so as long as Almora and Heyward catch fly balls it’s not important to them.
ChiSoxCity
I have to mention this, too. Epstein missed out on many opportunities to upgrade the Cubs OF via trades and FA signings, and it’s hurting their performance against elite teams. They could easily have an OF of Yelich, Harper and Cain if they simply traded Schwarber, Happ, Almora, Bote and possibly Edwards.
Questionable_Source
I don’t know about that, but they could have one fewer crappy pitcher AND Eloy Jimenez.
Jockstrapper
WTF? Hahahahaha. You’re so sore it’s sad.
ChiSoxCity
Sure idiot.
pdxbrewcrew
That the defensive metrics have Orlando Arcia as “middling” is proof these stats are worthless.
petrie000
If a preconceived notion doesn’t match the objective measurements, it’s not the objective measurements that are worthless.
joepanikatthedisco
defensive metrics aren’t objective because no one can agree which (if any) are any good
Yankeepatriot
If the brew crew gets 2 good starters they can win the NL pennant no doubt. For some reason they have refused to work on their rotation which is a huge weakness of theirs
Payne Train
I hope fixing the STL bullpen isn’t done by just signing Miller … still think they need one more reputable arm ! Assuming they will get that arm from the Martinez grade whenever that happens .
OCTraveler
LA sends Hernandez, Stripling and Verdugo to the Royals for Merifield; goes with an outfield of Bellinger, Pedersen and Taylor unless the Harper deal works. Infield of Muncy, Merifield, Seager and Turner. Barnes is your starting catcher with a rent-a-veteran (AJ Ellis type) as a backup.
daveineg
Brewers don’t see Arcia as a weakness. In fact he’s seen as a strength. He was their #1 prospect just a couple years ago, and a consensus top 10 prospect in all of baseball. He’s one year removed from posting a very respectable 89 OPS+ and his glove is gold glove caliber..
Last year was seen as growing ;pains typical after breaking through to an extent in 2017. They are very confident that he’ll build on his strong finish from last year and a hot bat so far in winter ball is just confirming that belief.
petrie000
An OPS+ of 89 is never respectable. It’s a full 11 percent below league average. You hit 80 or below and you’re basically a bench player
bhambrave
89 is playable if you’re generating 3-4 WAR on middle infield or catching defense, Otherwise, I agree with you.
outinleftfield
Arcia produced a 55 OPS+ and a negative WAR last season.
petrie000
Sure… But 4 dWAR is, like, god-tier defense… The best defenders can only barely sustain 2
It’s fine to have a defensive whiz at SS, but offensively Arcia’s a non-factor
cygnus2112
With Murphy signing to play 1B with the Rox for 2 years along with the other shorter termed contracts they have on hand, it seems perfect to sign Jed Lowrie to play 2B for 2 seasons and with all these various short teem deals Colorado holds, that’s the ideal bridge to break in the lauded youth like Rodgers, Welker, Hampson, etc while at the same time, these older players can also serve as mentors to said younger talent which is about as ideal of situation as possible with filtering out the old while ushering in the new.
Jockstrapper
Had no idea Albert Almora “didn’t hit.” Dumb analysis. Dumb writer.
bhambrave
Almora had a hollow batting average. Very little power and not many walks.
Jockstrapper
What’s that gotta do with hitting? “Hollow” batting average? Either you hit or don’t.
daved
He didn’t hit with any authority, so unless he’s carrying a top 5 batting avg with that .701 OPS, he’s not much of threat. I don’t consider. 286 to be all that great. Now, if he hit 40 doubles and 20 HR, then that’s a different story.
bhambrave
So far, he reminds me of Rey Sanchez.
petrie000
because he wasn’t producing runs or giving his team mates an opportunity to do so. He was just hitting singles, which is really pretty ‘meh’ in the grand scheme of things.
there’s a lot more to being a productive hitter than just batting average
outinleftfield
The Giants need a new team. Was there a position other than catcher and SS that was not a weakness? Their OF is a weakness across the board. No positives there. Panik had a negative WAR. Belt only started 95 games because of continuing injuries. Longoria was below average on offense and defense.