Yusei Kikuchi’s introductory presser was a hit in Seattle this afternoon, as the lefty kicked off his address in English and expressed his great delight in becoming the latest to revel in the Japanese-rich heritage of the Mariners, who’ve featured at least one player from the country in every season since 1998. The 27-year-old hurler – or, perhaps to a greater degree, his agent Scott Boras, acting on his behalf – seemed lured to the Pacific Northwest by the promise of a seminal pitching plan developed by GM Jerry Dipoto and staff, one crafted with the express purpose of easing the rigorous transition from Japan’s Pacific League to MLB. “He’s pitched 160-180 innings over the last couple years in Japan, so we’re not going to get super conservative,” Dipoto said (link to article from MLB.com’s Greg Johns). “But we do feel over the course of 30-32 starts of a season, if every sixth start we … make that more of a bullpen day where he … stays on turn and prepares as a normal start, and then goes out and throws a one inning or 30-pitch start, it gives him a nice little breather without breaking turn or taking him away from his routine.” Such a plan would be without precedent in the majors, though with so many Japanese hurlers hitting the shelf soon after their major-league transition, it seems a savvy one indeed.
Here’s more reaction and follow-up from the deal . . .
- The Blue Jays were a surprise entry in the sweepstakes, with Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweeting that the team made a “strong play” for the lefty. The top of Toronto’s rotation crumbled last season, as both Aaron Sanchez and Marcus Stroman struggled to prevent runs, and the back half offered little in way of compensation. The Blue Jays have reportedly made it known that Stroman – who still posted excellent ground-ball (62%) and home-run (0.79 HR/9) rates last season – is available in trade talks, though recent reports have hinted that the club is more likely to keep him. Beyond that, prospects are grim: the club boasts no track records on which it can count, and upper-minors depth is scarce. Toronto does seem high on Trent Thornton, acquired from Houston in a November deal that sent away Aledmys Diaz, but the team will need to concentrate the majority of its efforts on finding quality hurlers in the months to come.
- Keith Law of ESPN (subscription required) offers his analysis of the deal, writing that Kikuchi has “N0. 2 starter stuff” if healthy, but noting that the lefty’s delivery places undue stress on his shoulder, which has already endured a litany of setbacks in his young career. Shoulder troubles, of course, are notoriously difficult to overcome, and often leave the hurler unable to replicate earlier-career levels of success, so Seattle will certainly need to keep close watch on their new investment in his initial MLB foray.
- Per Dipoto, via The Athletic’s Corey Brock on Twitter, the Mariners would still like to acquire relievers, “most likely” of the free-agent variety, and are looking to acquire a veteran infielder capable of handling shortstop. The club, of course, has been heavily rumored to be shopping recent acquisition Edwin Encarnacion, and is reportedly still looking to find a way to move both Kyle Seager and Mike Leake. The roster, under Dipoto’s watch, has been in near-constant flux, so it’s safe to assume the Mariners aren’t close to wrapping up their offseason wish list.
grapher0315
I am eager to how this new pitching set up will work. Seems like there will be a little more demand on the bullpen, so it will be important to have at least one if not two starters ready to shuttle up from Tacoma. Hope he does well.. Looks like the East and West divisions in the AL and the East and Central divisions in the NL are gonna be exciting.
jimmyz
Mariners are in a good position to try it out. Tacoma is basically down the road from Seattle compared to most MLB teams and their AAA affiliates. Excluding the fact they dont have the depth for it right now.
oldmanmiller
Wow almost impressed the jays went after him! Didn’t even know they were in the game…
coldbeer
They were reportedly in on him from day 1.
oldmanmiller
Well good for them… Just a little more evidence that Atkins isn’t as bad as what most jays fans think
turner9
I picked him to the Jays in the FA contest.
I’m also happy they were in on him. Shows they are trying to set up a 2020 run
melochejohn
Its no surprise at all really, its been well reported from the Toronto media that Atkins and company have highly scouted him and were interested in him. There was a lot of expectation that they would make a push for him. They generally play in the Int FA market but they also come up short on these types.
They are all about control right now, so getting a player his age for 4-6 years would line up with their new young core and they need more long term pitching assets.
Stevil
If the Mariners are able to move Seager and Leake after already moving Cano, this offseason could be dubbed Mission Impossible: Accomplished for Dipoto.
Lot of salary off the books, whether anyone likes the moves or not.
Yankeepatriot
Leake is actually useful to Seattle though
jorge78
It’s 2019! Time for lots of bargain hunting for free agents!
The new normal…..
muskie73
The projected Seattle starting rotation features two lefthanders who were teammates on the 2015 Seibu Lions: Yusei Kikuchi and Wade LeBlanc.
BenjiB24
The Mariners are getting a little heavy on lefty starters
throwinched10
Brad Boxberger, Hunter Strickland, Luis Avilan all fit the Mariners bullpen mold.
Dipoto has said that he seeks guys coming off of years that weren’t their best – bounceback candidates.
throwinched10
Add Shawn Kelley, Daniel Hudson, AJ Ramos, Bud Norris, Carter Capps, Blake Parker, and Brandon Maurer to that list.
Samuel
Did some research on Japanese pitchers in the majors. Currently are 5:
Hirano – D-Backs
Tanaka – Yankees
Darvish – Cubs
Maeda – Dodgers
Ohtani – Angles
Looking at them and others that came before, many do quite well their first few years. But they slowly become less effective, usually hitting a wall around age 30 – Hirano came up last year @ 34 and did quite well as a relief pitcher; Darvish was arguably the most effective in history, till he had some injuries starting @ 29.
Hideo Nomo was interesting – he totally dominated his first few years then fell off. But he had a revitalization of sorts when he returned to the Dodgers in 2002-03 @ 33-34. That was the peak of the steroid era, and once testing began he fell off and subsequently left MLB.
What was extremely interesting about Nomo’s 2 year rebirth, is that I couldn’t find another Japanese pitcher that kicked it in after age 30. Additionally, most pitchers lasted 4 years or less in MLB, with the exception of some that hung around as so-so set-up guys such as Junichi Tazawa, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Hideki Okajima.
I’m sure there’s more in-depth research somewhere. I don’t do this for a living.
muskie73
Despite shoulder issues, one-time All Star Hisashi Iwakuma made his MLB debut after his 31st birthday and remained productive through his age 35 season.
GarryHarris
You’re forgetting the “Fat Toad”.
K_Man915
What about Hiroki Kuroda? He was above average into his late 30s if I remember correctly
24TheKid
Hisashi Iwakuma was also effective in his mid-30s.
Adam6710
Pitchers slowly becoming less effective after age 30. So you’re saying they age like baseball players?
Samuel
Sure…..
Like Kluber and Schurzer and JA Happ and dozens of others……
Samuel
deGrom, Verlander, Greinke, Lester…….
Yankeepatriot
I don’t think degrom is past 30 lol
Begamin
Yes, there are a select number of SP that do well past 30. But they are the elite of the elite. There are also some Japanese pitchers that have done well past 30. We can easily sit here and point out all the pitchers who have done well past 30.
Generally, most SP start to decline around their 30s. If you are denying that then you are either being disingenuous or trolling.
pageian
I’m with Keith Law, I like the move for the M’s but i wonder how he’s going to hold up with the history he has already. If their plan for him works I’d expect other teams to start trying it when they sign a guy from Japan
southpaw2153
Looking forward to watching Kikuchi. From the video I’ve seen, he has an MLB fastball and a nice slow curve, plus a decent slider.
bobtillman
DiPoto I think hinted at what’s going to be the next sea change vis a vis starting pitchers; it’s a thought that’s been advanced by Kyle Snyder (the VERY erudite pitching coach of the Rays) and Ron Darling. Basically it calls for a 6 man rotation with the starters being available in the bullpen on their “throw day”.
It couldn’t have ben done before because of salary considerations, and because the “measures” (ERA, Wins) could mask performance. But the metrics are better now, more advanced and more detailed; i.e. one bad relief inning can blow your ERA up, for example. We’re beyond those measures
Until the schedule gets straightened out (i.e. expansion/realignment), that may be the way to go. Next year the O’s have to play 24 games in 24 days. Bad enough they stink to begin with, but their pitchers’ arms figure to be falling off (and , if memory serves, a good chunk of those games are against guys named Aaron and Giancarlo and Mookie and JD).
The Rays open with 7 games in 7 days (dome, they need “opening day”), and then they get to fly to Frisco on their off day. Everybody beefs about the schedule, but some of those beefs are legit.
There’s already hints that the PA is ape-poopy about these Major-AAA shuttles that teams are using (not to mention the 10-day phantom DL), and that’s got to change. So until then, the 6-day rotation seems to make sense.
phenomenalajs
Yeah, 24 straight days is nuts. I see the Mets have a 20-day stretch and an 18-day stretch in May & June. I believe the CBA is coming up in 2021. That’s going to be a big fight.
Samuel
Good points bob, but…….
1. Where do teams find 6 starting pitchers – where the average 5 man rotation uses 8-10 starters each year due to injuries?
2. Do you realize that only elite pitching staffs have 3 quality starters?
Keep in mind that it’s the Yuppie FO’s that started counting pitches; demanding their batters hit foul balls to get the starting pitcher out of the game early; and emphasized pitchers striking out hitters to counter the endless foul balls…..all the while telling their hitters no sweat if they strikeout….. which long ago lead the absurd sight of a batter K’ing and not moving runners on base along, then being met in the dugout with teammates giving him high-5’s.
Look at K’s going up the past 20 years. TJ surgery is as routine and acceptable as syringes and human waste on major American cities streets. Games continue to take longer no matter who tinkers with little things. I read that last year the ML average for player BA was .248. The percentage of batted balls being put in play continues to go down; and the Commissioners Office knows it’s a major problem as it does endless studies, while the FO’s continue to burn out pitchers (hence the shuffling of pitchers up and down from the high minors and packed DL’s), as they seem determined to drive BA’s below .200.
If that’s not crazy enough, find the quote from Friedman of the Dodgers a week or so ago. Ready……
One of the movers of the shift and having batters use light bats and swing with all their might, has now determined that too many of his players are hitting into the shift…..and….get this – he’s going to institute an organization-wide policy to teach guys to hit the ball to the side of the field where there are only 2 defenders. This “genius” stated that in 2-3 paragraphs using more buzzwords then a computer salesman just out of Starbucks.
Wee Willie Keeler said – “hit em where they ain’t”. And he did. In today’s game the man would hit .500.
bobtillman
Samuel:
Great points as always. Keeler hitting .500? DANNY CATER would hit .500 these days….and Carew would hit .600…..
While I agree there’s not enough quality for a 6 man rotation, I also think that’s there’s no solution to pitching paucity than to go that route. The Lords AREN’T going to expand rosters; they’ll save that for the 2021 negotiations. And even then, I see a system of “daily deactivation” (for last night’s pitchers, e.g.) than adding more slots to the 25-man.
And the ‘bullpen on your throw day” would add so much more fun to manager moves. Do I keep my starter in, or do I put Mad Max out there for an inning or two.
Clearly something has to be done; and I see expansion/realignment as inevitable; if nothing else, it’ll be the Lords carrot on the stick to the MLPA. That will further dilute the gene pool.
All these things are cyclical anyway; I can see a day, maybe 7-10 years ahead, where pitch count theology goes the way of the Edsel. It, simply, hasn’t worked. It turned the game into a case of telling a kid to throw as hard as he can for as long as he can, because when he’s a kid, he’s cheap. Then he blows his arm out before he becomes expensive. Three years of an explosive Blake Snell cost 1.5M; chump change. Ten years of a ho-hum Blake Snell costs 75M; which would you rather pay?
Samuel
bob;
Expansion?
lol
It’s like government programs – the solution to programs that don’t work is to make more contradictory rules and expand them. Then the rich lawyers get richer; friends and family of those in control get high-paying career jobs; the cost to the public goes up; and the quality goes down.
Pretty soon MLB will be like the NBA – each year maybe 4 teams are legit championship contenders; another 4 will be next year…..IF; 4 teams are lost causes; and the rest are in a phase of a rebuild.
I have time so I watch this stuff (sometimes getting away from it for years at a time). But most of my friends that loved MLB for decades can’t name a half-dozen players on the local team, and sometimes lose track of the manager…..and their children and grandchildren are similar. Nevertheless, they/we take the kids down to see a game once a year – same as getting family together for a picnic and playing softball. Like most of the crowd that are not season ticket-holders, they look at their smartphones to figure out who’s on their team that day, and maybe find out who the decent players are on the other team. It’s a nice bonding experience.
Have you noticed how the longer the playoffs go, the national viewership drops off? The WS is not all that important anymore to fans around the country whose team isn’t in it. So perhaps MLB will expand to 36 teams with 22 making the playoffs.
bobtillman
Samuel:
With every MLB team now valued at close to 1 Billion, that’s what the franchise fee will be. That’s a one time payment of 66M/team. I can’t see a circumstance where they DON”T expand.
But I agree totally. But I think one of the reasons the young can’t identify their own teams’ players is technology….why know anything by memory when you have a smart-phone. I can identify; they bought me an Alexa for Christmas last year. So, from a kid who used to drag his butt to the neighborhood library every Saturday to look stuff up, now I just ask a machine.
And she’s always right…..
But ya, 32 team league, 8 divisions, endless rounds of playoffs…..again I can’t see it NOT happening. The PA will be happy, the owners will be happy, the networks will be happy. And above all the politicos will be happy….”I GOT YOU A MLB TEAM!!!!”…..now just fork over 800 million or so to build a stadium……
Zissou
I am honestly excited for this season… I get it, the team is building the future, which is even MORE exciting, but I don’t think this team is all that bad.
Encarnacion will be traded before the season… 99% sure. Even so, there is talent here that will be interesting to see; that’s why you play the games.
Homer? Maybe… but start looking at the potential, and the proven talent now on the offense… This could be a sneaky team.
Get a damn bullpen in order – watch out.
its_happening
Smoak and Morales for Encarnacion and a prospect outside the Top 10.
I’m kinda kidding. I believe if Seattle can deal Edwin then the Jays should be motivated to deal Smoak to open 1B for Rowdy Tellez and see what he has.
turner9
I wouldn’t be mad at that.
its_happening
^Turner I’d rather see Edwin mentor Vlad. Edwin struggled at 3B and knows the failures that comes with defense. Edwin’s also one of the greatest hitters in the franchise’s history. I’d feel good about it and I’m sure others would too.
turner9
Edwin could DH while Tellez plays 1B in that scenario
Vlad would only benefit and putting EE in front of him in the lineup would get EE a ton of fastballs to crush.
bigdaddyhacks
I’ve seen enough Justin smoak for two lifetimes. No way in hell.
Cesspoolofdegenerates
Don’t worry, we’ll bring back Ackley too!
melochejohn
If anything it moves Morales…. however I don’t think the Jays are that motivated right now to move Smoak with Morales. Smoak is pretty affordable and soon to be a FA while Morales at 12MM is not really killing them, if they really want the free spot they can just eat the money. But Smoak at 8MM is still an asset and no reason to package him with Morales just to move Morales
its_happening
Melo – I understand the thought behind Smoak. He’s a likeable player. Good guy to have, just not on this Jays team. They really need to find out if Tellez can hang in the big leagues right away. Waiting helps nobody, not even Smoak. Perfect world I’d want to keep Smoak. This team should not hold him any longer. Plus they should be concerned about the old Smoak returning as his number took a slight dip last year. That said, I’d want Smoak to stay if the squad wasn’t doing a soft rebuild with a potential 1B waiting in AAA.
On a side note, Edwin means a lot to the Blue Jays and the city. Having him back would be a great sentimental move, excellent PR for the team that desperately needs it and he’d be a much better mentor than Morales.
jdgoat
Moving Smoak would hurt but I think you’re right. The only thing he provides for the Jays is lineup protection for Vlad. That’s valuable, but he sadly doesn’t fit the timeline.
ReverieDays
This guy is going to painfully average and then hurt within two years.
its_happening
Should not be a surprise the Jays were in on him. Right age, right dollar amount.
Hard to believe the analysis from a guy that had one of the worst runs in baseball try to judge how a player will turn out.
lowtalker1
What pitching plan?
Outside of the Japanese culture what future does the mariners have?
Chief Jay Strongbow
Yanks by him