In the final installment of our 3 Remaining Needs series, let’s take a look at the division that boasted the best and worst teams of the 2018 season. The AL East perfectly reflects the class warfare plaguing the American League, as the gap between the competitive upper class and, well, the Orioles could not be more stark. Even within the upper crust, however, there is plenty of variance, as the low-payroll Rays have done their best to keep pace with payroll behemoths in Boston and New York. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays have taken a step back but are still looking to prepare their roster for an anticipated influx of premium young talent.
[Previous installments: NL West, NL East, NL Central, AL West, AL Central]
Baltimore Orioles
- Trade Mychal Givens. It’s a no-brainer for the Orioles to sell off their veteran pieces for prospects, only they don’t have much to sell off. Alex Cobb and Andrew Cashner can be shopped, but they’d be salary dumps if they’re moveable at all and they might be better off providing a veteran base for a rotation that should have younger arms auditioning for at least two turns out of every five. The O’s have invested too much in Dylan Bundy over the years to trade him now for pennies on the dollar; better to hang onto the upside. That leaves Givens (10.3 K/9) as the most attractive piece on an otherwise barren roster. Once the major free agent bullpeners are off the market, teams should come calling for a hard-throwing late-inning arm with three seasons of control remaining.
- Sign trade bait for July. With a hugely uncertain roster situation, the Orioles should be willing to take some risks and snap up whatever the market leaves. While they’re not likely to snag any major free agents, even on pillow deals, they should be scouring the bargain bin for vets on one-year deals that could potentially bring something back at the trade deadline. Frankly, the particular position doesn’t matter so much as the value opportunity that’s presented. Needless to say, the same reasoning also supports active waiver-wire scanning, such as the team’s recent claims of Rio Ruiz and Hanser Alberto.
- Boost their international operations. The O’s longstanding aversion to spending on international amateur talent is well-documented. That was beginning to change before the club turned over the reins to new GM Mike Elias, but the org’s initial foray onto the market did not exactly go without a hitch as the club’s top reputed targets (Sandy Gaston and the Mesa brothers) landed elsewhere. That served as a reminder that bringing in top talent — not to mention, unearthing lower-cost gems — involves more than having and spending the available funds.
Boston Red Sox
- Replace/re-sign Craig Kimbrel. The Red Sox haven’t done much work to rebuild their bullpen as of yet, but the degree to which they’ll need to is still unknown. With no clear market developing for Kimbrel at this time, a reunion is not at all out of the question. If they don’t bring him back to Boston, they’ll need to do something to bolster a unit currently over-reliant on holdovers Ryan Brasier and Matt Barnes.
- Explore upgrades at catcher. Boston somehow managed to win a World Series in a season where its catchers batted a combined .194/.246/.288 in 619 plate appearances. Regardless of the defensive Christian Vazquez and Sandy Leon can frame and throw with the best of them, and Blake Swihart (if he ever catches) may yet turn into something if given any semblance of an opportunity, but the catcher position in Boston was an utter black hole on offense last season. It wasn’t quite as bad as having a pitcher hit each time through the order, but it was closer than any AL team should be. That the team hasn’t done anything to this point suggests it may not be at the top of the priority list, but it’s hard to deny that there’s an opportunity to improve. Speaking of backstops …
- Resolve the status of Blake Swihart. The Red Sox need to finally determine if Swihart has any kind of real role with the team. Again, it’s tough to criticize a team that won a World Series in 2018, but even Boston’s most steadfast defenders have to concede that the team didn’t exactly manage its roster all that effectively as pertains to Swihart. Boston wouldn’t put Swihart behind the plate, wouldn’t put him in the field and wouldn’t DH him. Swihart had just 48 plate appearances through May 31 in 2018 despite not spending a single day on the disabled list or in the minors. He had 99 PAs prior to the All-Star break — again, without a DL stint or any time in the minors. He can’t be optioned, and the Sox clearly don’t have a spot for him. It may have worked in 2018, but the Sox were effectively operating with a 24-man roster for a good chunk of 2018. They need more flexibility, and Swihart probably would like a chance to actually play somewhere.
New York Yankees
- Trade Sonny Gray. Once Brian Cashman began the offseason by declaring Gray would be traded, there seemed little room for negotiation. The market for Gray may not fully materialize until all of the top starting arms are off the market, but there doesn’t seem to be much value in bringing him back to New York. There’s no room in the rotation at present, even if there are questions around the age and durability of their top five. Still, the Yanks are not shy about in-season acquisitions and they have depth in Triple A they can rely on. Specifically, Domingo German (5.57 ERA) and Luis Cessa (5.24 ERA) underperformed last season relative to advanced metrics like FIP and xFIP.
- Seriously pursue a premium free agent. No, the Yanks do not need Bryce Harper or Manny Machado. The club won 100 games last year and is a threat to do so again (in a highly stratified American League) without making further upgrades. Still, this division — more so than the two other wings of the AL — promises to host a year-long battle. And … well … this is the Yankees we are talking about. What good is it being a financial behemoth if you can’t use your might to elbow out other teams when rare market opportunities come along? We’re not here to say that the Yankees must land one of these two players, or that they simply have to pursue both even if it makes a mess of the team’s roster and financial planning. But it would be odd if the Yanks didn’t at least put in a strong bid for either or both. With the allure of the pinstripes and New York City helping the cause, they just might come away with a bargain.
- Add another relief arm. Whether or not the club makes any other notable roster moves, this seems like an easy way to improve. The bullpen has been a notable strength in the Bronx of late, and that promises to continue. But the deeper the unit is, the more support it can provide to a highly talented but somewhat risky rotation. Limiting the wear and tear on the starting unit will not only max out its results all year long, but give the Yankees the best chance of having a powerful staff when crunch time comes late in the season.
Tampa Bay Rays
- Make another free agent splash. A big name would surely help the club draw some fans to the park, and perhaps help jump start a still-flagging ballpark effort. More importantly, the team can still tap into some funds to improve its chances of sneaking up on the BoSox and Yanks. As things stand, there’s still just under $60MM on the books for 2019. With a number of quality free agents still out there and awaiting a deal, the Rays should be willing to be aggressive in doling out short-term money to get significant pieces. Charlie Morton could deliver great value, and adding Avisail Garcia may be a decent risk, but there’s no reason to stop there.
- Make a run at J.T. Realmuto. Whether or not the free agent market offers another golden opportunity, the Rays should see if they can pull of an intra-state coup by coaxing the Marlins to send their star backstop up the coast. There’s nothing wrong with a Mike Zunino–Michael Perez pairing behind the dish, but Realmuto is the game’s best. The Tampa Bay front office would have flexibility in resolving the preexisting options, particularly since Perez can still be optioned. He’d be a nice depth piece and could perhaps also remain on the roster as part of a three-catcher mix. Alternatively, the Rays could still deal away Zunino.
- Add some veteran bullpen pieces. The Rays’ fascinating bullpen usage has shown no small amount of promise. Part of the strategy, of course, is to lean on a high volume of young pitching. But it’s hard to deny the value of veteran leadership and of established, steady performance. The current Tampa Bay bullpen unit features just one player — Chaz Roe — with more than three years of MLB service time. Allocating some remaining funds to one or more quality free agents would seem to make sense. Old friend Sergio Romo is among the many remaining possibilities.
Toronto Blue Jays
- Prepare for potential spring trades. Entering the winter, it seemed that veteran first baseman Justin Smoak would pop up in the rumor mill with some frequency. We broke down his potential suitors in anticipation of just that, but nothing of note has materialized to this point. There has been more chatter surrounding righty Marcus Stroman, but no indication to date that there’s any momentum toward a deal. Things may be quiet now, but more and more of the offseason business is stretching up to and into Spring Training, when teams will see their rosters in the flesh and injuries will begin to pop up. The Jays should anticipate some late-breaking interest in these players and be ready to pounce on any good opportunities that come up.
- Put the payroll space to work. Neither Smoak nor Stroman need to be moved for purely financial reasons. Indeed, the Jays should also be willing at least to poke around for bargains on the market. The Jays are only projected to have a payroll of roughly $110MM next season right now, well below recent levels of spending. The team has a variety of players who have a decent amount of MLB experience but who have yet to establish themselves fully. It’s fine to give opportunities to players of that kind, but that shouldn’t be allowed to clog things up if there’s a chance to add better talent — even if it costs a bit of money. The Toronto organization could find some opportunities to acquire talent as teams make final payroll decisions, whether that takes the form of snagging unwanted arbitration-year players or taking on an under-water contract that’s packaged with prospects.
- Add to the bullpen. The Jays have little in the way of established arms at the back of the ’pen, and even if they don’t realistically expect to contend, there’s value in having a few stabilizing pieces to prevent a constant churn of DFAs and other various 40-man machinations throughout the course of the season. Scooping up some useful arms on one- or even two-year deals can also always yield a viable summer trade chip. Last year, the club enjoyed some opportunities at the trade deadline due to its arsenal of veteran relievers, and there’s good reason to pursue a similar course again.
acarneglia
AL East will be a dog fight between NYY and BOS. TB and TOR will both make runs at the 2nd WC. Baltimore will be better, because when you hit rock bottom there’s nowhere to go but up.
duffy126
I’m not quite sure we’ve hit the bottom just yet. Perhaps this year…. Lol
firstbleed
Agree. Full year without Machado, Gausmann, Britton, Brach and possibly Adam Jones.
its_happening
Toronto will not be making a run at 2nd place. They will be fighting for 4th.
jimmertee
What u said Trim.
Bruin1012
Hey jimmer how excited are you to see Vlad jr. this year he is going to be an outstanding hitter. I’m a Red Sox fan but looking forward to watch this guy hit.
jimmertee
Vlad Jr gonna be great. He’ll have to learn the pitchers as they correct to him but his skills are so good it will come. His biggest challenge will be “distractions” including food. The Jays are concerned about his control of his weight.
He is going to be fun to watch.
dan-9
Not what was said. “2nd WC” means 3rd place in the division after Sox/Yankees.
its_happening
^4th place will not get the 2nd WC, Danielson. Not that any of it matters. To say the Jays will contend for a playoff spot is pure ignorance.
BRUIN – we Jays fans are excited, but without help around him it won’t matter. I’m more interested in who else will step up at the big league level and what position they put Vlad beyond 2020. It’s why I want Smoak to be traded yesterday; if Tellez can’t play 1B in the majors then make Vlad the 1B.
terrymesmer
It might be more accurate to say the Jays will not be mathematically eliminated until September, so for five months they will be in the wild card chase, but only in a strictly technical sense. Fourth place sounds about right.
But having the likely rookie of the year could make this rebuild year exciting (and give fans some illusory hope for 2019).
As the article says, this year is for giving young veterans the opportunity to establish their place in the long term plan — or to show they need to be replaced. I do hope the Jays use their giant pile of money to snag some young arb players from struggling teams. Even one starting pitcher with three years of control would be a huge boost.
Blake Douglas
Toronto making a run at the 2nd WC. I love the optimism but I would love some of whatever you are smoking.
acarneglia
Either Boston or NYY is the 1st WC. 2nd WC will be between TB, OAK, LAA, MIN, and TOR
Elm City Old School
Red Sox should package up Swihart for Realmuto..
Adam6710
As a Yankee fan, I am very happy with this offseason. They brought in a potential elite relief arm to replace Robertson (Britton), Upgraded 2/5ths of the rotation when they traded for a top-of-the-rotation arm (Paxton) and adding Happ (to replace Gray); they shored up their infield defense with LaMahieu and took a flyer on a low-risk/high reward former star (Tulowitzki).
They’re a much better team than when they entered 2018.
Bocephus
So you’re happy with the uncertainties of LF, 1B, SS, Health of the rotation, loss of Robertson, and no true LH masher?
Adam6710
Yes. Some of those are laughable concerns.
bronxbombers
No team had absolute certainties at every position.
For SS Gleyber can play there while DJ plays 2b and tulo can play SS when gleyber is at 2b. Didi can also be back by June at the earliest i would hardly call SS a problem.
At 1b Voit showed promise last year and bird will start the year at AAA and possibly stay healthy enough to have a good showing sometime in the year.
LF is the most uncertain of all with Gardy regressing. The Yankees do have Clint Frazier fully healthy and ready to make a showing. Also there is the possibility of actually using Stanton in the OF more often putting andujar at DH tulo at SS gleyber/dj at 3rd and gleyber/dj at 2b.
While every team would love balance with lefties and righties. Any team would also love to have 9 righty mashers who can all hit to opposite field.
For the rotation
1. Sev
2. Paxton (health concern)
3. Tanaka (not really a concern has been healthy arm wise for almost 5 years now)
4. Happ (no concern)
5. CC (will go on DL every August for his knee issues)
They have Loaisiga (promising top 100), German, Chance Adams as backups who all made starts last year.
Bocephus
LF..Gardner at this point is a bench player/fourth outfielder. Frazier hasn’t shown anything even when healthy. Stanton looked terrible.
SS..please don’t include Tulo as any real fallback. Torres has never played SS on a consistent basis, especially in the majors. Didi’s TJ was to his throwing side so maybe a Aug-Sept return to be generous.
1B..Voit was good but that’s shaky for long term or the Cards would’ve utilized him full time. Yes Bird should be kept down without a question.
Pitching..Happ(age), CC(age/knees), Paxton(history)-injury concerns.
BP..Robertson was extremely flexible and dependable a huge loss.
Then there’s the elephant in the room..Catcher
Old User Name
Bronx… You left oot Montgomery due back this year.
thegreatcerealfamine
Probably second half
southbeachbully
@bocephus
I wouldn’t say Stanton looked terrible in LF. Not sure how many games you watched with him in LF. But I don’t think the Yanks plan on using him there anyway.
Not sure how you can say Torres hasn’t played SS on a consistent basis. It was his main position in the minors.
Voit was blocked by Carpenter, Martinez, etc. He still has to prove himself but there’s nothing in his minor league career and mlb showing to suggest he can’t. at minimum,be a solid .260/.340 25-30 hr guy.
Happ is a year older but still had a great 2018. Not sure if that needs to be an issue,
Robertson will be missed but the Yanks still have the best bullpen in baseball with Chapman, Betances, Britton and Green.
Adam6710
2018 Yankees had health concerns in the rotation. CC, Tanaka, Montgomery had injuries; Gray and Severino had stretches of awfulness, while the likes of Cessa and German got some 20-25 starts.
100 Wins.
Gardner, Sanchez, Bird, were black holes in the lineup all season long. Shane Robinson and Jace Peterson got lots of at-bats in August. Judge had a prolonged DL stint. Stanton slumped in August. Didi slumped in July.
100 Wins.
They’ve improved the quality of their rotation, improved their infield defense. I don’t know if they’ll do better than 100 wins, but they have enough to contend, and that’s all I can ask for as a fan.
Keep in mind the Red Sox had an all-time historically great season they are not likely to replicate. They will be great again, but unlikely they’ll win 108 games. I think the Sox and Yanks will battle all summer for the top spot.
thegreatcerealfamine
How can you say they’ve improved the Infield defense with the shortstop situation?
Adam6710
It’s a push over where it ended in 2018, but it’s improved from when Didi was injured.
Badfinger
Torres has played SS his whole life. 2B is new to him.
Carrington Spensor
thegreatcerealfamine,
Tulo is back to 80-85% of his defense according to Gibbons – last years Jays manager. It’s his hitting that has not come back.
ShieldF123
Torres was a SS until last year… gtfo
deweybelongsinthehall
You can’t have an all star at every position. The Sox won in 18 because of amazing clutch hitting, pitching and fielding. Almost a perfect season. I happen to disagree with the story as I’d rather have two defense first catchers than two offense first ones. Also, Swihart is a 25th man and provided depth. If you’re carrying 12 pitchers, you need bench players like Swihart and Holt. Part of today’s game. Controversial, but I’d create financial flexibility by marketing Porcello and picking up a fifth man like Buchholtz. Yes him.
deweybelongsinthehall
Fiber. Let’s see what the Yankees do by the first game. I’m still expecting a blockbuster. Either Stanton to LA or Andujar traded with a true ace leading the staff. Kluber anyone? Severino as a number two? Pretty nice. Until he signs elsewhere my lineup card still pencils Machado batting in pinstripes.
thegreatcerealfamine
Dewey, I read in a blog today there’s a rumor of a three way trade between the Yanks-Indians-Padres. If Stanton was traded I’d prefer Harper everyday, and twice on Sunday.
deweybelongsinthehall
Fiber, depends on the length. Harper as a lefty is needed more at the plate but personally I’d choose neither at the apparent prices. They may be the best free agents available but I’d look elsewhere short term and try to lock up Judge and Severino. That said, I just see MM starting at 3B opening day.
Carrington Spensor
“Dewey, I read in a blog today there’s a rumor of a three way trade between the Yanks-Indians-Padres. If Stanton was traded I’d prefer Harper everyday, and twice on Sunday.”
thegreatcerealfamine;
How are either the Indians or Padres going to pay his salary?
And why would he consent to playing in one of those cities?
deweybelongsinthehall
My question on the alleged trade deals with Stanton’s no trade. I’m still assuming it’s LA or nothing.
socraticgadfly
Per what Adam said, the total infield depth now makes SS a total non-concern, and 1B almost that, Bocephus.
Total OF depth? LF is only a modest concern, I think. Britton for a full year replaces Robertson. Derp. Righty-heavy lineup is the only huge issue, perhaps. Rotation help? Keuchel or somebody like that is a lot cheaper than Harper, who remains unlikely. Machado hugely unlikely.
its_happening
The only concerns for the Yankees are whether or not Sanchez can bounce back from a horrible 2018 and if Andujar can improve his D. Yankees are deep and dangerous. They also have the first half to see which pitcher and bat to obtain at the deadline, and they will. They are better on-paper than they were a year ago today.
Kolukonu
I don’t think you can say they brought in Britton when he was on the team last year. Same with Happ… he finished the season in the rotation last year.
costanza
Britton was with the team for 2 months and didn’t really come into form until September. So I’d say having him healthy and for a full season is definitely an upgrade. Same with Happ although he was solid the whole season.
bigchiefbc
If Britton and Happ are adds, then so is Eovaldi.
Adam6710
Yes you can say that because, as I stated, I was comparing opening day rosters. Now get going, your bus is leaving.
RPK
Wasn’t Britton pretty awful for the Yankees when he came in?
Adam6710
Britton had a 2.88ERA for the Yankees in 2018. He was better than Robertson during that span.
bucketbrew35
I’d argue that it’s really hard to improve a 100 win team. And based on the moves they have made this offseason I would say the have more or less maintained more than anything else.
They have retained Britton but lost overall depth in the bullpen because they lost Robertson. The bullpen is still strong so it shouldn’t hurt that much.
The rotation is better by swapping Paxton for Gray but Paxton’s ceiling is a #2 and he’s not going to give more than say 160 innings per season based on his health history.
DJ will make up for some of the offense lost by not having Gregorious. While Tulo is basically an unknown at this point. The natural grass should help his legs though.
lynda
100% agree
sam 17
Well since it’s ws or bust, or at the very least anything but get pummeled by the Red Sox, they haven’t improved that much from when it really counts.
jdgoat
Jays and Orioles should be all over Homer Bailey
cptstupendous
That’s not a terrible idea. At least from Tor perspective. Hard to call it anything better since we are talking about homer bailey…
RPK
For the Red Sox – Replacing Kimbrel is clearly the top issue, but im confused how the 7th/8th inning isn’t issue #2
Remember – Before the post season, they really didn’t have any confidence in who was going to throw in those innings. We saw reports of essentially an auction at the end of the year.
Now, clearly everything worked out. But how confident are they really in Barnes and Braiser to carry the load? Barnes was really suspect for nearly 3 months before he woke up in October.
After those two – Workman? Hembree?
That’s a huge issue, much more pressing than catcher.
Bruin1012
The Red Sox clearly need to have a closer and I think DD knows that but he isn’t overpaying for one. If Kimbrel falls into there laps at a decent price I could see a reunion. Remember it isn’t what you start the season at in payroll that matters it’s how you finish the season.
If Boston does get Kimbrel then the bullpen falls into shape. If they struggle and it looks like repeating is not in the cards then you can jettison some salary and get below the 246 million and not lose the 10 draft pick spots. If they are hitting all cylinders again you are already over the 246 million you can go all In again to repeat then start your soft rebuild in 2020.
I also believe the Red Sox have some young bullpen arms that will make a difference in the bullpen this year. If they don’t add Kimbrel then it is going to be real interesting. Without Kimbrel I think the Yankees are the favorite for the division with Kimbrel Red Sox are. Let’s see what happens.
bigchiefbc
Barnes was only suspect in the minds of Felger and Mazz disciples. Barnes was a very good relief pitcher last year, with a 120 OPS+, FIP almost a run better than his ERA, and a DRA that was even better at 2.21.
Brazier was just as good as Barnes, with a much lower ERA, but a slightly higher FIP and DRA.
RPK
Weird, for some reason I remember watching the games for two months and remembering his walks going up, control going down and his curveball wasn’t getting the same bite.
He’s had control issues the entire time he’s been on this team. Nothing about that screams closer or setup guy.
Bruin1012
That’s always the question with Barnes if he’s not walking people he is really tough easily could be a closer or quality setup man. If he loses his control then not so much. Would not feel real comfortable with Barnes as the opening day closer.
costanza
I’m pretty satisfied with the Yankees bullpen. Chapman, Betances, Britton, Green, and Holder are a top 5 that not many teams, if any, can match. One of the remaining 2 spots will most likely go to Kahnle since he is out of options, so hopefully he can show show some kind of semblance of his 2017 self. Then, assuming they trade Gray to open up the spot, I’d like to see a ST battle between some of the young guys for the last spot. It’s the best way to find out which guys can be solid bullpen pieces. Last year Holder emerged as a good piece, the year before was Chad Green, and Betances a few years earlier. Having a guy with options in one spot also allows them to rotate a few guys between AAA to keep people fresh.
daved
I was really shocked that Tampa didn’t doggedly pursue Jon Jay. He could have brought that clubhouse leadership, clutch hitting, and phenomenal defense to the team. Even though he possesses none of those, he could still bring them to the team in his mind. Then again, the Rays would have to sign Manny Machado and Yonder Alonso to make this work. I guess that’s what killed the pursuit of Jay?
ColossusOfClout
The Yankees generate more revenue than any other franchise in baseball (and it’s not even close), and yet this off season they’re acting like the Coupons from across town.
Could Hal Steinbrenner end up being the driving force behind the next lockout?
timm-2
I wasnt aware the offseason was over. Is it opening day already?
tharrie0820
Why? Because they didn’t pay ace money to a pitcher who has had one such season in his career, or because they haven’t signed Harper who is incosistent at best, or because they haven’t signed Machado (which is really the only one I don’t understand)
ColossusOfClout
Not for any specific player but the trend is clear; the shrinking percentage of revenue the Yanks are spending on payroll.
thegreatcerealfamine
Excellent point that no one talks about
southbeachbully
I don’t think the concern is over the payroll as much as it is the insane lux tax they were facing last year. I want to say it was at 50% last winter. Imagine signing a player to a 3/$50 mil contract but having to pay another $25 mil as a tax that goes to other teams?
Since 2003-2017 the Yanks paid $320 mil in lux tax. To put in context, the next 7 teams in that span have paid about $200 mil collectively. If I was Hal I would want to reset the lux tax too.
If Harper, Corbin or Manny were wiling to take shorter-term deals then things may have been different.
southbeachbully
Yeah that would be rich. Having a system where small market teams go from complaining the Yanks outspend everyone then to have ppl complain they don’t spend enough. It’s not the Yanks responsibility to make a play for the biggest FA every year. That being said, they’ve signed Happ, Britton and DJ to the best aav probably received by those guys and will more than likely be over $200 mil this season. What’s truly laughable is a team like the ChiSox who’ve never issued a contract of over $75 mil total. That was pretty amazing.
jekporkins
I got to think the Yankees are looking at upcoming salaries of Didi, Judge, Servino, etc and thinking if they sign a Manny or a Bryce, they will perpetually be itching against the luxury cap and might lose some of their own players in a year or two.
tharrie0820
Does TC stand for some thing?
timm-2
I think the Yankees three needs were correct. The big fish they should chase and should have chased all along is Harper. Him between Judge and Stanton would be devastating. I hope the reliever they add it Ottavino.
Adam6710
No, nothing mentioned in this article is an actual area of NEED. They are areas of WANT or COULD USE.
What they NEED is an ace.
GCarbs
I get wanting to better use Swihart’s roster spot, but the Sox don’t have a catcher in their top 30 prospects. Dan Butler can’t hit in AAA nevermind the bigs. Should an injury occur to Vazquez or Leon (like last year), Swihart is a much better backup than someone you’d pull off the trash heap. His versatility and speed is also a huge bonus. He’s faster than most catchers and can play everywhere. Of course he’s slightly redundant with Holt and carrying two super utility guys isn’t ideal, but he does his job pretty well and hit decent when he had chances.
RPK
Roldani Baldwin is ranked 15th
GCarbs
Are those new rankings? Last I saw of Pipeline and BA they didn’t have one. Maybe it was top 20 I was thinking of. Either way, Baldwin isn’t ready to contribute. The unfortunate death of Daniel Flores prevented us from seeing what he could do
Meow Meow
Regardless of his prospect rank, he spent last season in High A, and I wouldn’t assume he’s expected to be MLB-ready in 2019, so your original point holds.
RPK
True but how much depth do they really in 2019 at catcher?
socraticgadfly
Sorry, TC and Todd, but the Sawks are NOT resigning Kimbrel. That blows them over the top tier $245M lux tax line. Ain’t gonna happen. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mVYyinHlYUI0gE98Ag…
What they DO do, I dunno. But, Kimbrel needs to lower his ask to 4 years and look elsewhere.
thegreatcerealfamine
De do do do de da da da
daved
Resign: to voluntarily leave a job or position. Joe is going to resign as President of ABC Co. effective immediately.
RE-SIGN: to sign a document again. Kimbrel has RE-SIGNED with the Red Sox for $60M.
jorge78
Thank Daved! It was so unclear before….
clepto
Quality dig. Nice work.
riffraff
So you felt the need to correct him on the difference between resign and re-sign ( which could very easily be an auto-correct issue and not a matter of not knowing the difference) but let “sawks” slide? Be the wet blanket 100% or just let it go without a comment. We get it – you want to appear smart in front of strangers.
daved
Re-sign and resign are very unclear on here because I see it all the time. Auto correct will not take out a hyphen when it’s grammatically correct. As far as “sawks” is concerned. If some jackwagon wants to be cute with a reference to a city dialect, so be it. I’m not trying to be “smart in front of strangers”, but it might help the poster look a little smarter if he knows the English language. Then again, maybe some of you are illegal aliens here on a free ride.
Roll
if you are going to correct people make sure you are correct yourself
incorrect:
As far as “sawks” is concerned. (period) If some jackwagon wants to be cute with a reference to a city dialect, so be it.
Correct
As far as “sawks” is concerned, (comma) If some jackwagon wants to be cute with a reference to a city dialect, so be it.
It might make you look a little smarter if you know how to use punctuation in your correction posts 🙂
socraticgadfly
No habla Ingles.
No tengo Cubbies.
I speaka da English better than the jackwagon not looking in the mirror cuz his MAGA hat blocks the view.
clepto
You just got jackhammered Daved….lol.
daved
Yes I made a mistake and hit the period button and not the comma. At least I’m man enough to admit an error. However, I seriously believe that some people really don’t know the difference between resign and re-sign, and that was my main point. Gadfly, I now get why you are who you are, a worthless Democrat. You don’t have Cubbies? Is that some sort of disease? I don’t have Cubbies either.
daved
Actually, I just got corrected. I never felt a jackhammer hit me.
socraticgadfly
I’m NEITHER a Democrap (unless no Green or Socialist option is on the ticket) NOR a Rethuglican. Ugh.
And, you sure struck me as having the Cubbies cooties yourself,. Daved.
its_happening
Interesting about the Jays bullpen. Presumably they are going with 7 or 8 arms in the pen. Assuming Clayton Richards is the 5th starter (which is garbage, he should be in the bullpen), bullpen looks like:
Giles
Tepera
Biagini
Barnes
Mayza
Thornton
Paulino
…then possibly Gaviglio, the Rule-5 Luciano and Merryweather. Justin Shafer should be considered because he pitched well in AAA last year. Not exactly the 2014-15 KC Royals bullpen but the main goal is to see what you have with the guys you currently control.
Basically, Jays don’t need to sign any more bullpen arms unless some vets are ok with a minor league deal with an invite to Spring Training (looking at you, John Axford). See if there’s a diamond in the rough from the current collection of arms.
jimmertee
Excellent Jays Bullpen analysis. Giles [should] be traded for some very good prospects sooner than later.
I like a healthy Phelps in the bullpen too.
its_happening
See….forgot about Phelps after saying I liked the pickup! I’d have either Thornton or Pannone be the 5th and Clayton can go to the bullpen. Luciano makes the team if he has a good spring. I don’t think the Jays need more arms, plus they may have a guy or two return to them via the Rule 5 if the players they lost don’t make the team.
tgovey
I hope the Sox figure out the Swihart situation too, I feel bad for the kid, he should be able to play, somewhere, if he’s healthy.
InvalidUserID
These are no longer George’s Yankees and I honestly believe that Hal will do JUST ENOUGH to keep the Yankees competitive so as to not lose fan interest but I think the Yankees that would use their financial might to impose their will are a thing of the past. Whereas George would do everything to get the Yankees that extra few %s advantage, I think Hal is perfectly content just being in the hunt. It’s his team and his money so he’s well within his right but this is clearly different management.
Prospectnvstr
it’s NOT the same climate. GEORGE’S WORLD was totally different than what is happening today. George didn’t have the ramifications for HIS exorbitant spending habits (whims).
Adam6710
You’re right, and it’s the right approach. Short term, modest deals to good but not elite players, supplementing a strong homegrown core got them 4 championships in the 90s.
In 2001 they signed the first of about 8 or 9 long term blockbuster deals and how many championships have they won? They threw money away and restricted their options to adjust mid-stream.
southbeachbully
Other than the late 70’s I don’t get how people can clamor for the “good ole days” when George was in charge. How many years of suffering did we have because we had no farm, traded away prospects for over-the-hill vets and spent on the spectacular instead of need?
Carrington Spensor
The amazing thing about these write-up’s is that there’s no consideration for how FO’s and managers/coaches are structuring their teams. While many just throw stuff up against the wall, some franchises actually have a blueprint in the way their teams are to play. i.e. Prioritize pitching; defense up the middle; catching; speed; power; fundamental play or fundamental play is not important; shift a lot (which changes required skills) or shift a little; just throw or swing the bat as hard as you can, don’t sweat the small stuff, etc. Along those lines, how are players progressing – or not – in filling their roles on the team.
This is like fantasy baseball or trading cards. Players are interchangeable – like component parts in a machine – pull one out, stick another one in.
Which leads me to the Yankees write-up. They don’t need to sign Machado or Harper…..butt….they should still check in…..or something. These FO’s go through extensive analysis of their teams outlook and their players abilities; players that may be available. How different scenarios might affect the make-up of the team on the field – i.e. who plays where and what is their role. The backdrop is the baseball business plan, their budget, and the individual player plans…most years long. Now one or two shiny new toys are available, so lets junk everything. Sorry, that doesn’t build a teams chemistry or bonds between players, management and ownership. It literally undermines everyone’s work. Personnel realize that everything changes on someone’s whim. NG – not good.
bobtillman
It’s tough to compare team spending vis a vis revenue, since every team lies through their teeth about revenue. The Red Sox claim 80M a year from NESN….REALLY? God, they must be so dumb, when the Dodgers get 350M from T/W. What’s the matter with those Red Sox guys???????
And it’s not just the revenue itself. The Rays’ biggest issue is that they have to share just about every dollar they take in; the other 4 teams are so reversely integrated, they get most of the money.
That said, the AL East is still a one horse race. The Sox may very well be better this year than last; lots of players have individual motivators (Free Agency, big arbitration awards, opt outs) to make them better. They’re really the perfect economic storm, at least for 2019. And, bottom line, they just have better players.
Ya they have holes…who doesn’t. The Yanks are really good, but their in the wrong place at the wrong time. The Rays just won’t commit to spending enough to really get into it; it’s always tomorow in Tampa, but tomorow never comes. I have no idea what the Jays are doing; I don’t think they have one. And the O’s are a train wreck in search of a dumpster fire.
costanza
Saying the AL East is a one horse race is asinine. You think the Red Sox will be better this year? They got career years from Betts, Martinez, and Boegarts, and Sale was a Cy Young candidate until he was put on the DL in August. They were pretty healthy all year, and also went on a 17-2 stretch which provided a nice cushion for them. They are still going to be good, but to think they will be as good or better in 2019 is asking for just about everything to go right all season. I wouldn’t bet on them winning 108 games again.
Willy Mays
Costanza I totally agree with you. Another question is what exactly is the Bosoxs bullpen.As of right now they have no KImbrel and there front office is on record saying they don’t see making a big expenditure for there bullpen. Also you have to figure adding Paxton to the Yankees improves there pitching staff as does Happ
Adam6710
It’s no coincidence the Yankees targeted Happ and Paxton. Both have excellent regular season numbers against the Red Sox.
bobtillman
So your assertion is that the 27 year old Betts and 26 year old Boegarts had “career years”? Now that makes a lot of sense.
Their starting CF hit .190, their catchers hit about a collective .210, their bullpen, including their closer, was an arsonist in search of a fire. LOTS of stuff went wrong. Cora definitely had his foot off the gas pedal in September. And they still won 108.
daved
Betts is a great player, and like most great players, they usually put up consistent numbers during their prime.
costanza
Betts and Bogaerts had 2018 OPS+ of 50 and 30 points higher than their career averages (which include 2018) so I’d say they both had career years thus far. That’s not to say either can’t replicate it at some point in their career, but betting on multiple guys to have back to back stand out (and healthy) seasons, as well as having 2 guys in the MVP top 5, is far from a sure thing.
daved
I said great players put up consistent numbers in their prime. Betts is now in his prime. He’s 26. His last 3 years produced MVP voting of 2nd/6th/1st. Will he have a 186 OPS+ again? Who knows? But I would venture to say he will be close to it and still be one of the top 5 players in all of baseball for the next 5 years.
costanza
My point was never that Betts isn’t that good, he’s a beast and if anything, may be the most likely to replicate his monster numbers in 2019. My point is that multiple players had exceptional seasons and a lot went right for the sox both in the regular season and in October for them to win 108 games and the WS. It is rare to have back to back 100 win seasons, let alone win the WS in both. The OP said the Sox may be better this year, do you really believe they will win 110 games?
bobtillman
The #1 and #4 starters were on and off the DL all year…..the #2 only pitched well on the days of his psychiatric appointments…..the #3 was at least consistent, consistently “meh”…..they never had a #5 that wasn’t pulled from the minors or signed while waiting for the cross-town bus…..
Is it a “sure thing” that will happen again?…..oh, what happens if Pedroia comes back? Is it a “sure thing” he won’t? Dustin Pedroia?
Is DD sitting on his hands if the bullpen implodes a “sure thing”?
I think you know the answer to those questions……
And again. lots and lots of financial motivation for lots of their players to achieve….not that guys do this to make money, of course…that’s a “sure thing”…..
costanza
Sale made 27 starts and was only on the DL in August, and it’s known that he needs late season rest which they gave him to be ready for the playoffs, I’d hardly call that on and off the DL all year. Price was actually solid, 16-7 3.58 ERA 122 ERA+, and E-Rods stats were pretty similar. Porcello was very average and we’ll see what they get out of a full season of Eovaldi. I don’t know where there is much room for improvement, I suppose Sale could win the Cy Young as opposed to finishing 4th. Again my point is that a slight regression in total wins for the Sox is far more likely than them winning 110 games, just like it would be for any other team.
Willy Mays
So I’m sure you can name a bunch of teams that have had back to back 108 win seasons .I’ll make it easy for you no one in history has come close. Good luck on a repeat season
Willy Mays
Also Bob how did that financial motivation work out for KImbrel last year
bobtillman
I would imagine his daughter’s life threatening illness might have had something to do with it….
Also, since Duffy, Robertson, Wendle, Choi, Glassnow and Snell all had “career years” last year, we can expect the Rays to win about 75 games this year…….come to think of it, Sox might win 130…….
costanza
If the Rays won 108 games last year, yeah I would expect them to win less this year if they made very few improvements to their team. But they won 90 games and made more improvements to their team than Boston did, so I’d peg them in the 88-92 win range. Using the Rays as your argument as to why the Red Sox will win 108+ games in 2019 just shows you’re grasping at straws. I hope you find a sports book that will give you odds on the Sox over 107 wins since you are so sure of it. They should gladly take your money and forget about you since they won’t have to worry about you collecting any winnings.
Carrington Spensor
Ive seen cycles in MLB for well over half a century. Usually 2 or 3 teams are rebuilding. In the AL last year these teams were in states of rebuilding/disarray (including mass injuries)…..all selling, or trying to sell, at the deadline- Jays, Orioles, Twins, Tigers, White Sox, Royals, Angels, Rangers.
That’s 8 out of 15 teams – many of whom took it down to the studs. Never seen a season like 2018.
The 108, 103, 100, and 97 win teams ran it up because they played a lot of JV teams. None are the ’27 Yankees, Finley’s A’s, or the Big Red Machine.
bobtillman
During the season, the Rays lost Span, Colome, Ramos and Eovoldi, all of whom contributed to that 90 win season. Post season, they’ve lost Cron and Romo, same deal. In return, they received nothing. They lost their major offensive threat, Mallex Smith.
Their “improvements” are a pitcher whose previous team, well healed and starving for starters, wanted nothing to do with; an OF, whose previous team, well healed and starving for OFs, wanted nothing to do with. For Smith, who looks for all the world poised to become an impact player, they got a catcher who, while sound defensively, can’t hit his way out of a paper bag; to join the 3 others they had with the same profile.
Of course, they did get Pham, who hates being there. But then he hated being in St. Louis, too. All reports are that it was a mutual feeling.
Their win total will be directly proportional to exactly how bad the Jays and O’s are. And minus the inevitable regressions of Duffy, D-Rob, Wendle, Snell, etc., all of whom are more likely to regress than Betts, Boegarts, Martinez, etc.
costanza
None of this changes the fact that the Red Sox will not win 108+ games in 2019.
bobtillman
Carrington: No doubt about it…..4 teams already printing playoff tickets, just a couple of others that can reasonably think they have a shot at a one game playoff. And the bizarre spectacle of one of those 4 (Tribe) admitting they’re deliberately trying to get worse, just to save some money.
It MIGHT get better. Gotta love KC’s approach (“we’ll run ’em all out of the park”). The White Sox should improve, with one of the Golden Girls (Manny/Harper). The Twins are strange with their under-achievements, but have a decent roster if things fall right. I honestly don’t think the Mariners are THAT much worse than they were last year. I expect the Rangers to wait another few weeks, then sign EVERY “pillow contract”-type guy.
Like I said, MIGHT get better.
bobtillman
I wasn’t aware that the Rays aren’t on the Red Sox schedule this year….or that they’re not in the same division…..
costanza
So because in your mind the Rays got so much worse (they didn’t), the Red Sox are going to win over 108 games. Sound logic. They went 11-8 against them last year, and even if the rays end up being terrible, the Sox will still probably lose 6-7 games against them. That’s just how baseball works.
Gordon Lightfoot
Ryan Brasier has 42.2 career innings pitched and it would be a mistake to either assume, or appoint, Brasier as a viable closer on the defending World Series champs. Signing Robertson & Herrera would have been my strategy – no interest in Kimbrel on a long term deal.
jimmertee
I remain skeptical that the Jays are interested in winning. One of the new Roger’s CEO’s mandate is to resume dividend growth which means cutting costs and well as sales growth.
I can’t see the “room” the Jays have to spend being filled. I hear there is a mandate from above to reduce budget and return to a “larger” budget once the team has a real shot. Natale wants the cash at the moment as he kicks off his new career with Rogers.
Here is an actual quote from the Roger’s CFO: “Rogers management would like to find a way for the value of the team to be reflected in the parent company’s stock price.”.
Face it folks, the Jays aren’t a big spending club at the moment. They won’t compete with the Yankees and Bosox ever with this type of strategy.
The Jays need a $200 M budget every year to build to compete and to win in the AL East. Period.
its_happening
Yep. Welcome back to the AL East arms race.
Gordon Lightfoot
Here’s hoping Rogers sells the Jays to an individual/group that is actually interested in baseball. Rogers net profit was $425 million in the first quarter of 2018, up 37% from the previous year’s quarter one. Toronto is not a small market, the Jays owners are cheap and generally disinterested. Rogers has negatively impacted not only the onfield product, but the Rogers-based Jays broadcast coverage is atrocious (please, for Buck’s sake, get rid of Pat Tabler & Jamie Campbell – it’s a start). Jays fans deserve much better and should demand as much. Frustrating.
jdgoat
Jamie Campbell? He’s pretty great!
It would be very beneficial for a new owner though. It’s pretty embarrassing when you have guys like Jose Bautista who offer to take a pay cut just so they can add a player.
Gordon Lightfoot
JD, I lost all respect for Campbell after the softball, public relations “interview” he did with Chris Collabello. He made the matter worse last year by lobbing softball questions to Joey Votto after Votto’s odd rant against Canada baseball. Campbell is just a mouthpiece for Rogers – zero analysis or critical details coming from Campbell and I think it’s his job to be more accountable. Worst of all? He’s impossibly dull.
its_happening
Gord, be careful what you wish for regarding ownership. I know what you’re saying and I hear you loud and clear. I don’t know if there’s another rich group/individual out there that can truly do what is needed for the Blue Jays to be a powerhouse.
Rogers leaked too much oil in other entities, and basically used the surplus of the Blue Jays to counter the losses. That said, they could have spent another $20-30 mil needed in 2016-17 to put the team over the top. They didn’t.
JDGoat – did Bautista take a pay cut after declining the QO for the 2017 season to make the playoffs a 3rd year in a row? No. And the Jays paid a 3rd DH (Morales, Pearce, Bautista) a lot of money. Yes, at 36 turning 37 he should have DH’ed in 2017. The fix for failure was in after the 2016 season.
Gordon Lightfoot
Agreed and understood, Reaper. Rogers treats baseball like a pet, a dog on a chain – Jays fans deserve better.
Pat Tabler makes me miss Fergie Olver.
jimmertee
The offical stance of Rogers on the Jays is that they are interested in keeping the team and all the broadcast opportunties that go with that. Unoffically selling has been talked about at the highest levels.
The Board likes the look of the 1 billion+ price tag the Jays will fetch.
That also means if they can lower the payroll and show the Jays are good on paper it will attract more potential buyers. Have a low payroll is a double “win” for the Rogers board: the bottom line and on the “value” of the Jays.
And I agree with getting rid of Pat Tabler, I can’t listen to him anymore. I will turn the sound off or listen to another audio feed. The Yankees and Bosox announcers are very good.
Jaime Campbell is okay but he is not Ron Mclean. Ahem.
Adam6710
I am scratching my head on how Machado or Harper is an area of need. You can want them, sure, but no reasonable pundit would say it’s an area of need. The rotation is without a legitimate ace, I might consider that an area of need. The team is without a reliable full time shortstop, even if they have players who can fill in capably.
But do the Yankees NEED another superstar outfielder or infielder for that price?
Willy Mays
So then you’re basically saying Machado Tulo and Torres are not reliable ss’s.Because if you consider ss an area of need thats where Machado would play I have no problem with a Torres Tulo platoon until Didi comes back as being acceptable I don’t understand your view about ss. However I understand your feelings about an ace type pitcher
Adam6710
What?
Needing a reliable shortstop doesn’t = Machado. Machado = 10 year commitment, that is certainly NOT what the Yankees need. Tulowitzki is a low-risk/high-reward flyer, that’s all. When I said a reliable shortstop, I didn’t even mean a superstar. A light hitting, but healthy, gold glover would be fine. Then again, they can move Torres to SS, and play LaMayhue at second.
Problem solved.
Everyone saying the Yankees “need” Machado are just people who like that he’s a star, and dumb Yankee fans want the biggest star at every position.
Doesn’t even matter, I’m sure next year if he signed, he’d hit .280 with 28 HR and Yankee fans would be calling him a bust, begging for him to be traded to the Dodgers, and screaming for Nolan Arenado.
Willy Mays
No I agree Yankees don’t need Machado that for part of a year they’re fine with Torres and Tulo.I was responding to you saying they don’t need Machado or Harper they need a reliable ss.If you don’t think they now have a reliable ss the move would be sign Machado and then either don’t resign Didi or trade Andujar next year. I don’t want Machado and I want to keep Didi but you can’t question why they don’t find a reliable ss and then say signing Machado doesn’t make sense..btw I agree Machado would be a huge mistake.I remember the daily bombardment Cano got in the media at the end of his Yankee tenure and Machado would be that squared.Also long huge contracts limit all flexibility to a team a la Ellsbury
thegreatcerealfamine
ala Stanton
jimmertee
As far as the Jays trading players, anyone except Gurriel Jr and Jansen is tradeable. I hope they can package multiple assets together to acquire elite prospects.
As for Smoak not being traded or talked about, from what I hear, the reason is there is a high ranking Jays executive who loves the guy and any converations about trading him at the moment are shut down quickly. He kinda has blinders on his eyes. Yeesh.
GarryHarris
Most of the AL teams don’t look good on paper so the few good AL teams will have great records. In spite of what this article says, I don’t see any holes in the NYY roster. In my opinion, NYY, is the mid-winter favorite.
queensburykid
I am confused by the Orioles section. The article says to sell all free agents then it suggests to get more trade deadline tradebait. Cobb, Davis, Trumbo, and Cashner would only get pennies for the dollars. Givens makes 2.15 million is only the player that get any return. Maybe one of the above players can increase their value with a good year. The Davis contract is all dead weight.
Begamin
The Yankees should flex their financial might on a SP. It just so happens that Harper and Machado are free agents when the Yankees dont have spots for them. It wouldnt be odd at all if the Yankees arent in the mix for either. It only appeals to reason that they would sit these too players out and pursue more dire needs (SP, RP). It would be unreasonable for the Yankees to break the bank to have 6-7 OF on the MLB squad and it would be unreasonable for them to break the bank adding another 3B/SS when you have very solid and much cheaper options at both positions.
I am just surprised adding one more SP isnt one of the needs. I rank it above one more RP at least.
jakec77
So the Yankees NEED not to sign a Machado or Harper, but just to be involved in the bidding?
How do the Yankee, or any other team for that matter, ever NEED to bid on a player but not get them?
Now, Machado and Harper NEED the Yankees to get involved to drive the price. And maybe even Mlbtraderumors.com NEEDS the Yankees involved to stir up the hot stove.
jg_916
Imploring the Devil Rays to sign free agents is like Marie Antoinette telling her people they should eat cake if they can’t afford bread. Tampa is a joke franchise, one concerned ONLY with turning a fat profit for the owner. Anytime the team wins it’s strictly by accident.
The 2019 payroll is $60 million, right now? “Amateur” NCAA football and basketball teams have higher payrolls than that!