As MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently pointed out, at this time last year we had seen no open-market movement from the top of the free-agent pool. There’s still quite a lot of work to be done with regard to the current crop of players, but there also has been quite a bit more movement. With ten of the top twenty players listed on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agent list now having reportedly agreed to terms, it’s a good time to check in on how the market is developing.
Here are the deals that have reportedly been struck do date, not all of which have been finalized:
3. Patrick Corbin, SP — Predicted: 6 years, $129MM. Signed: 6 years, $140MM.
7. Nathan Eovaldi, SP — Predicted: 4 years, $60MM. Signed: 4 years, $68MM.
9. J.A. Happ, SP — Predicted: 3 years, $48MM. Signed: 2 years, $34MM.
10. Michael Brantley, OF — Predicted: 3 years, $45MM. Signed: 2 years, $32MM.
11. Andrew McCutchen, OF — Predicted: 3 years, $45MM. Signed: 3 years, $50MM.
13. Josh Donaldson, 3B — Predicted: 1 year, $20MM. Signed: 1 year, $23MM.
14. Charlie Morton, SP — Predicted: 2 years, $32MM. Signed: 2 years, $30MM.
15. Wilson Ramos, C — Predicted: 3 years, $36MM. Signed: 2 years, $19MM.
17. Jeurys Familia, RP — Predicted: 3 years, $33MM. Signed: 3 years, $30MM.
20. Hyun-Jin Ryu, SP — Predicted: 3 years, $33MM. Signed: 1 year, $17.9MM.
25. Joe Kelly, RP — Predicted: 3 years, $27MM. Signed: 3 years, $25MM.
36. Lance Lynn, SP — Predicted: 2 years, $16MM. Signed: 3 years, $30MM.
43. Garrett Richards, SP — Predicted: 2 years, $10MM. Signed: 2 years, $15.5MM.
44. Jesse Chavez, RP — Predicted: 2 years, $10MM. Signed: 2 years, $8MM.
45. CC Sabathia, SP — Predicted: 1 year, $8MM. Signed: 1 year, $8MM.
48. Kurt Suzuki, C — Predicted: 2 years, $8MM. Signed: 2 years, $10MM.
Total — Predicted: $560MM. Signed: $540.4MM.
It’s possible to look at that slate of signings and believe that the market is humming along. Perhaps the biggest point in favor of an optimistic outlook from the players’ perspective is the fact that many early moves seem to have set teams up for yet more acquisitions. Few if any teams appear “done” with their shopping at this point.
Of course, one could also argue that the earliest-to-sign free agents naturally outperformed expectations, since strong early interest is what drove their market. It could be that other names on the T50 list will find tougher going. Plus, the top of the position-player market and much of the relief market remain unresolved. And there’s a big group of mid-level free agents (and below) that are still waiting to see how things will shake out up top.
Timing is also an interesting topic to consider. Players are no doubt resolved not to allow the ticking clock to become too strong a lever for teams, who made clear last winter that patience isn’t going to be in short supply. Perhaps there’s still some feeling-out to be done in light of last year’s market shock, and there’s at least one significant trade chip (J.T. Realmuto) who could be holding things up a bit, but we may also simply be in an era when more of the offseason business tends to be completed later on the calendar.
BlueJayFan1515
I’m still surprised at the Lance Lynn signing for three years, especially after a down year for him, when all he got last year was 1 year coming off years of solid performance.
nutbunnies
I agree, but I feel like the Rangers had to overpay given their contention situation and ballpark effects for pitchers.; I don’t think it’s the wisest use of funds, but they aren’t contending and not charging a pittance for tickets so it’s not completely insane. They need warm bodies to soak up innings.
STL-NYC
As a cards fan. I agree
Texassooner
The overpay was one year not so much in $ / years. If Texas trades Minor to Philly for prospects, as I hope, they will have to sign two more lower level FA’s to soak up innings. They may have to overpay for at least one of those, also. It’s the price of doing business for a rebuilding team still 3 years away. In 3 years they will begin rolling out some very talented young pitchers.
CursedRangers
It is an overpay, but keep in mind $10M is almost how much they were going Martin Perez before not picking up his option. When you look at it from that angle it looks better.
YankeesWarriorsPatriots
I’m batting .000 so far
I missed a lot last night
turner9
I am also 0 for 50 currently.
If the Jays sign any pitching I’ll be on the board tho
dimitrios in la
YanksWarrPats, that’s a pretty unimaginative list of teams there.
YankeesWarriorsPatriots
Reported
ScottRC
Got a whopping ONE prediction right so far.
nutbunnies
If you really think that, I dunno what to tell you. Other than a few, they’re all mostly well within the ballpark of what was signed. This is like a victory lap for them.
baseballpun
I assume he’s talking about himself in the contest.
ScottRC
I got one prediction right
Lefty Grove’s right hand
Corbin getting $140m was insane. Very solid rotation in DC.
fs54
Very solid top of the rotation. Back end and depth, not so much.
Lefty Grove’s right hand
Yeah, that’s true. I think they traded Roack too, right?
Lefty Grove’s right hand
We’ll see what Fedde can do in a full seasons worth.
Syndergaarden Cop
How boring it’s been. Someone poke the offseason with a stick to see if it’s still alive.
NewYorkMetropolitans
lol boring? Stop trolling.
He was traded thata way.
Compared to last year this offseasons been edge of your seat exciting. Dipoto is trading everybody, some big names have signed already. More to come.
pinkerton
this is why free agency is fun as hell. you never know what could happen.
gofish 2
Three predictions right so far (Eovaldi, McCutchen, Happ).
Will the fine folks at MLBTR be posting a leaderboard at any point?
Julio Franco's Birth Certificate
I guessing you might be the leader with three. This has been a tough year to predict where guys were signing.
Adam6710
Two of those were fairly predictable (better than 50/50 odds), but McCutchen, good job calling that one.
Why didn’t you pick CC to the Yanks? That aseemed like a gimme, and far more likely than the other two you called correctly.
gofish 2
Yeah, got lucky with Cutch. Based on my Google sheet, CC was not listed in the top 50.
Adam6710
Ah! Interesting that he’s included here.
gofish 2
If you want to keep track of your success rate (and if you remember who your picks were), you can use the attached Google Sheet I created.
Yes, I’m a Google Sheet nerd 🙂
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kIPnH4fMCJULEjfNth…
MikeyHammer
Got three, as well. Eovaldi, Richards, Happ.
AidanVega123
Nice job with the Richards prediction
disadvantage
I’m also at three: Eovaldi, Corbin, and Familia.
cvarneski
I’m not as smart as I thought before this contest began. Got 2 right thus far.
He was traded thata way.
What this contest has taught me thus far
Yankee fans thought they’d sign everybody and have actually signed nobody.
Braves fans wanted their front office to fill the OF but opted to sign Josh Donaldson instead.
And mariner fans will need to purchase new jerseys once dipoto trades everybody off the roster. 25 new players is gonna be amazing.
ABCD
So far for the Mariners, 23 of the 40 man roster at the end of the World Series have been granted free agency, traded, released, or claimed on waivers.
Lefty Grove’s right hand
They signed Happ though.
Adam6710
And easy to forget that before they traded for Paxton many were predicting a return to pinstripes for him.
ABCD
Nice job on the predictions so far, but I don’t think Harper or Machado are coming anywhere close to theirs. They’re so hard to peg anyway because they’re outliers.
Neither will get ten years and I’d guess one of them will top Stanton but not by much. Of course, I’m predicting this 45 days later and I’ll probably be wrong.
.
dimitrios in la
You are right. I think the MLBTR predictions re Machado and Harper will be off by quite a bit. Nice job by them though on predicting the others.
Jeff Todd
We knew the safer route was to guess 10/300-350 or something, as most outlets did, but I think Tim in particular felt strongly that these agents would have a strong path to breaking new ground with these players.
ASapsFables
If Harper and Machado take less than 10 years then their only sensible alternative would be very high AAV contracts for around 4 or 5 years when they will still be 30 or 31 years old and still potentially get another high paying contract. Anything between 6-9 years would make less sense, no?
That’s the primary reason I had each pegged for 10 year contracts with a player-opt out 4-5 years into the deal along with multiple team options on the back end, perhaps with vesting provisions.
54scooterb
AJ Happ and Wilson Ramos are my only picks correct so far.
tharrie0820
I wish I was good enough to be a bottom 50 free agent 🙁
ASapsFables
Nice job so far with the projections in terms of both years and total value. I suspect that will change once the top two free agents ink their deals. I’d be shocked if Bryce Harper received the 14 yrs/$420MM and Manny Machado the 13 yrs./$390MM contract offers this site predicted. I believe both the years and dollars are too high.
I do expect each to to be paid handsomely and probably even surpass the $30MM AAV amounts projected by the staff. In fact, I expect at least at least one of them, probably Harper to beat the record $34,416,666 AAV contract that Zack Greinke is currently working under. The $30MM predicted here for each would only tie Max Scherzer’s 6th ranked AAV contract.
Giancarlo Stanton has the highest total value contract ever signed with his 13 yrs/$325MM deal from the Marlins. I expect Harper to beat that figure with a final value deal between $350MM-$400MM. I suspect Machado will come closer to Stanton’s number with a total amount range between $300MM -$350MM. I think each sign contracts around 10 years in length with at least one player opt-out around the time they reach 30 or 31 (4-5 years into their deals) with multiple team option years at the back end that could conceivably have each retiring with their new clubs. These predictions would assure that Harper’s AAV would fall somewhere between $35MM – $40MM and Machado’s to be in the $30MM- $35MM range.
Ryan W
I think that the market for each position is not as wide as we all expected. I think that there’s a decent chance Harper regrets not taking his extension offer with Washington
Marius
I don’t think Harper is going to regret anything. He’s a free agent and gets to choose where he wants to play between Washington, Philly, LA, NY and Chicago. I think he’ll be just fine and will get his 30-35 mil annual salary from any of those franchises.
Dan Hunter
Harper will not go to the Phillies, Yankees, Cubs nor La.
He shall resign with the Nats or go to the Mets.
Lagares and Nimmo will become bench players and they need a centerfielder, not Harper obviously.
darthbusey
Wait, did the Wilpons sell the Mets last night?
No?
Then get the heck out of here, sir!
Dan Hunter
The Wilpons did not actually sell the Metropolitans last night.
What doe’s that have to do with above statement?
Ryan W
He may have a 30-35 aav, but who’s going to offer more than 10 years at that rate?
antsmith7
Man you guys did pretty darn good as far the contracts. Pretty close to dead on so far. You should list the team they signed with and what you predicted as well.
downsr30
I’m currently at 2 correct guesses with Ramos and Eovaldi.. but i also predicted pretty much every decent catcher to go to the Mets, and every decent bullpen arm to the Cubs or Mets.
I think Machado will end up a Yankee, which i initially predicted as well.
MrStealYoBase
What is up with Pollock?? Haven’t heard any rumors and he is certainly a top talent. Any reason why the market would be failing to form for him? I feel like I’m missing something. He’s the best CF available.
Dan Hunter
Mets will acquire Pollock.
Jean Matrac
It’s interesting that the totals listed: “Predicted: $560MM. Signed: $540.4MM”, makes it seem like MLBTR over-predicted the dollar amounts. But 11 of the 16 actually listed signed for a higher AAV than was predicted. The contracts that are shorter than predicted skewed the numbers to the negative when it’s actually more money being paid.
nutbunnies
Gotten 3 so far: Cutch, Happ, Lynn, Would not be surprised if that’s it for me.