Following a startling afternoon report that the Red Sox would “listen” to offers on franchise cornerstones Xander Bogaerts, Rick Porcello, and Jackie Bradley Jr., presumably in order to clear payroll space for upgrades elsewhere on the diamond, the BoSox brass spent much of the evening in equivocation. Indeed, NBC Sports Boston’s Evan Drellich reports that the defending champs would need to be “blown away” to deal their star shortstop, and the notion that they’re “actively shopping” these players is “overblown.” Replacing the 26-year-old Bogaerts, who’s posted an exceptional 17.4 fWAR over the last four seasons, would be nearly impossible, and the rental market, at least in recent times, leaves little to be desired. Boston, though, will face a number of tough decisions with core players in the upcoming seasons: after all, nearly half of the team’s projected 25-man roster is set to hit free agency by the conclusion of 2020 season.
In other news from Beantown . . .
- Both Alex Speier of the Boston Globe and Chad Jennings of The Athletic offer insight into the potential mass exodus set to hit the club after the 2019 and 2020 seasons. Each of Bogaerts, Porcello, Chris Sale, and possibly J.D. Martinez (if he elects to exercise his opt-out) are free agents after next season, with Bradley and Mookie Betts set to hit the market the following year. Though the club’s annual reserves match (and often surpass) that of any other MLB team, keeping all these players in the fold seems altogether unlikely: “I do caution, and the one thing I keep talking about, is that it’s just from a financial perspective and rule perspective, it’s not going to be possible to keep everybody that we have,” GM Dave Dombrowski said. “You have to realize that if anybody is signed long term now, it may have an effect on some other things that you may do later on.” It seems prudent, then, to cull from at least two of the lower-profile members of the group (which includes a half-dozen or so other contributors), though Porcello, with his $21.1MM salary for next season, and Bradley, with declining performance in the box, may not yield the assets the BoSox desire.
- Drellich, in a separate report, cites sources claiming that lefty Chris Sale would be “open” to extension talks, and perhaps more so than “most players of his caliber.” The 29-year-old, of course, just completed one of the most impressive seasons in AL history and is on a surefire hall-of-fame trajectory; the figures, then, are sure to be astronomical, but neither the team nor Dombrowski have shied away from huge starting-pitcher payouts in the past.
- Christopher Smith of MLB.com reports that the Sox “prefer to trade” one of their three catchers before Spring Training but “are willing” to hold on to each. Blake Swihart, long the subject of trade rumors across the baseball landscape, continued to disappoint at the plate in 2018, while platoon mates Christian Vazquez and Sandy Leon combined for a dreadful -1.7 fWAR. The position seems a clear target of upgrade for the defending champs, though dealing from their current surfeit may be challenging, to say the least.
pasha2k
I hope DD doesn’t start stabbing the Redsox team to death! Say it’s not true!!!!!
thefenwayfaithful 2
Read Dombrowskis quote and what they are doing makes perfect sense. Right now the Sox have a one year window in 2019 to be a dominant force in the East again. If you can move $40 million in payroll in 3 guys (only one of which is truly irreplaceable) and get a few pieces back that could help in 2020-2021, it will soften the blow when the inevitable future DD speaks of comes to fruition.
This is about being able to sustain success without a full rebuild. They are being honest that this payroll is not sustainable for both financial and luxury tax reasons.
kingbum
I’d trade Betts before spring training this year. Betts will end up being one of the biggest contracts if not the biggest position player contract in baseball come the spring of 2021. Outfielders do lose some of their speed when they approach 28-30 it’s the first thing to go. You can get probably 2 major league ready players an outfielder and a pitcher with a top prospect for Betts now. Have the focus be for a top line starting pitcher first then a corner outfielder as a second priority in a Betts deal. That would give flexibility to do something with JBJ and Porcello yet not gut the team entirely. It has to be matched though by moving either Porcello or Bradley later.
Melchez
I could see Sale extension and jd staying. Porcello and Xander walk. Porcello is no loss. Xander would hurt. I could see Bradley leaving and Betts resigning which wouldn’t be bad.
davidcoonce74
I can’t imagine Betts wouldn’t try to test FA; it looks like he’ll be 28 when he hits FA, and if he has three more seasons like this he’ll make some serious coin. I think if Boston tried re-signing him it would have to be a huge deal.
ShieldF123
There have been several reports that Betts has stated he will definitely test free agency. Sox fans have to realize that there is zero chance they can afford everyone they stand to lose by the the end of the 2020 season.
thefenwayfaithful 2
Exactly… There’s an inevitable future and not too much help coming up. The Red Sox can ill afford to watch all of these guys leave for roll of the dice compensation picks. 2-3 will have to be moved for significant returns. There is no way around it. DD is splashing some cold water on it to make sure he gets max value but I’d be shocked if we went into spring training without 2 major trades that will make 2019 a little tougher then 2018, but hopefully protect us in 2020-2021 and let the Sox continue their reign of success rather than letting everyone walk and going full rebuild.
luckyh
Betts has always stated he would go to FA. Some guys you know will never stay. They will go for maximum dollars: Papellbon, Ellsbury, etc. come to mind. There is nothing wrong with it. It’s a business on both sides. I don’t know why everyone is in such a tizzy over the comments. Only a few guys are untouchable. It’s that way on every team. If you get blown away by a trade offer, you take it.
thefenwayfaithful 2
The Lowry DeRozan scenario in the NBA and Lester w the Sox comes to mind. It’s best when teams and players are both honest with each other and the fans about their intentions in these situations. It softens the blow when the inevitable happens and let’s teams plan. Teams have gotten buried when the talk is extension extension and then the guy says nah on second thought free agency. I’d rather Betts say he’s going to do what’s best for his family and then do so. I hope that’s to stay in Boston but if it’s not, he’s always been a stand-up guy and there’s no hard feelings.
People have to understand this is a business on both sides, not just for the teams. The players, the union, the agents all play a role. It’s not as cut and dry as just take a pay cut and stay.
Phanatic 2022
I think he’ll surpass Harper
deweybelongsinthehall
Barring injury or a collusion type situation, Betts will easily exceed Harper per year average. Time will tell on years.
thefenwayfaithful 2
I think he may come up short due to age. I’m thinking he will get a higher aav tho both due to 2 years of inflation and luxury tax cap raises and the fact that he’s a better overall player then Bryce. I could see 14/400 for Harper and Betts come in at 12/360-380. This is just age and years though. Not a player quality assessment.
What makes Bryce special is you could give him a 14 year deal and not pay for the 40+ years. Whoever signs Betts will want the same arrangement. Maybe they throw in an opt out to balance the overall value. We will have to wait and see.
deweybelongsinthehall
Harper for 14 years is like Kimbrel for 6. Neither is happening unless an owner visits granny and gets into her jug… love those Hillbillies…
aussiegiants53
Surely the Red Sox are in a financial strife in the coming years, huge payroll, average farm system, they are going to need to be creative going forward but they do have the resources
butch779988
They Sox are not in financial strife…
ShieldF123
They’re going to be in real bad shape after the next two years. They need to reset the luxury tax before they pay out massive $ and all of their key pieces are coming due. JDM will opt out, Betts, Bogaerts, and other will enter FA, Sale is a FA, arb salaries climbing,etc.
And no relief coming off the farm whatsoever.
deweybelongsinthehall
Relax. Who ever chooses to leave might hurt short term but can be replaced. Some teams don’t have the finances to do that. I’m assuming their minor league depth will get replenished with a couple of trades and international signings. Remember the team was unable to sign internationally the last two years.
stubby66
You know I could see them trade Bogaerts and JBJ because they could replace them with Iglesias and bring up Rusney Castillo again and see what they could salvage some of that contract
thegreatcerealfamine
Now that is truly comedy gold.
stubby66
No just thinking outside the box some but if your comments made you feel better glad I could help
Gloff
Iglesias would be a defensive upgrade and could be had for a cheap salary. I’ve always liked Castillo, but clearly ownership hasn’t otherwise they’d overlook his salary
3rdStrikeLooking
Downvoting your last comment made me feel better. Thanks!
koolga
Iglesias would be ok (downgrade from Bogey), but Castillo would never be promoted due to his salary. They would be trying to save money for Luxury Tax purposes, not add it.
3rdStrikeLooking
Gold Jerry, Gold!
Be rating is always held in high regard.
SKbreesy
Castillo’s contract doesn’t count against the luxury tax, bringing him up means his $$$ counts, that is the opposite of what they want to do.
fba0017
Yes replacing Bradley with Castillo would be probably an additional 3 million a year. I thought Castillo is around 11 mil and Bradley projected around 8 mil.
jrwhite21
If memory serves, Castillo is at 12.5, Bradley is projected at nine.
deweybelongsinthehall
Bringing up Castillo defeats the financial purpose of trading JBJ.
stubby66
Well if the Brewers dont sign Ramos then I think they could get Swihart for a low level pitching prospects
badco44
Really the Brewers? How did our last trade with them turn out… we got took, worst DD Trade by far!
shortytallz
Boston’s window closing fast.
NotaGM
agree…DD came on as a win now mode.We got the ring so DD will be out in 2020 as sox face a rebuild.
JV
Yeah ok there Jon Heyman!! They have won more championships in the past 15yrs than many teams have won in their franchise histories!! Teams like this do not rebuild….they just retool! I will take a closing window over one that was never open!! They all just want to be more like us!!
tjc0426
If you think that the Red Sox aren’t going to have to go full rebuild mode within the next 5 years, check yourself. A rebuild is inevitable as the impact players on the team now will all leave for big bucks. Behind them, there is virtually no farm system. The best they can do now is only prepare for this crash. They should try to win in 2019 but then trade some big names for prospects and get ready for a full on rebuild. This ones going to hurt.
thefenwayfaithful 2
They definitely don’t have to go full rebuild if they are smart and move a few assets now. They will get a comp pick for Martinez when he opts out. They will get a comp pick for Betts as I don’t think he will move before hes a free agent barring some horrible turn of events in 2019.
If they move Bogy Porcello and JBJ, bring back 2 or more high level prospects and a few midtier guys, get the comp picks mentioned above and drop below the luxury tax limits to avoid having our first pick bounce back 10 spots, they can sacrifice a few wins in 2019 to avoid the chaos in 2020.
This doesn’t mean they won’t have to rebuild but remember, Pedroia will come off the books shortly thereafter, Price will come off the books shortly thereafter. They can reasonably be a spending force again in 2022. I don’t think that’s a long rebuild considering they will contend in 2019 and likely 2020 in the process regardless if they can replace Sale with w comparable piece or extend him.
2021 might suck.
swanhenge
Cue Kevin Bacon from the end of Animal House…”All is well!!!ALL IS WELL!!!”
The window is wide open for 2019. Let’s just worry about 2020 as we go and hopefully Mookie, JDM, X and Sale are all awash in championship love after another WS win.
GaryWarriorsRedSoxx
All three of those guys are gone. They will test free agency.
They have to be replaced by cheaper young guys. Have got to trade a couple “last year of their contract” guys for youth just like the crappy teams do.
MetsYankeesRedSox
Lol Chris Sale HOF trajectory.
TinkerAmbast
Something funny?
3rdStrikeLooking
Can you read?
TinkerAmbast
Not particularly well. Enlighten me please.
GaryWarriorsRedSoxx
He’s jealous cuz we’ve got a guy that’s been amazing his whole career and since he’s young, he’s on a Hall of Fame trajectory.
If he keeps it up, and that’s a big if of course…. If he keeps it up, he could be Hall of Fame material.
Rickeo02
Boegarts,Bradley,E Rodriguez & Chavis for Trout
Michael Chaney
That doesn’t even get the conversation started
thefenwayfaithful 2
Angels aren’t interested in Bogy. He’s getting paid in a year. Maybe Devers, Benintendi, ERod and Chavis opens the door, but that makes the Sox worse both long and short term.
Long story short, there’s no situation including free agency the Sox get Trout. If they invest in an outfielder at that level it will be Mookie.
cpt redbeard
Red Sox have 1- 2 year window with this group. Sale seems open to an extension. Porcello is a new englander and may very well want to stay, but if he walks so be it. Xander to me is gone, he is Boras next big meal ticket. JDM is walking next year and Sox should let him, grateful for what hes done but let someone else pay him into his mid to late 30s. JBJ might be able to be had on a decent deal unless he all figures it out at the plate. Mookie is the big one ? He is the one guy they make break the piggy bank .
Their window with the current group is closing, but with no major financial commitments going forward they should be able to retool/rebuild on the fly.
GaryWarriorsRedSoxx
Excellent. Good assessment.
thefenwayfaithful 2
Price & Pedroia are still going to be inflating our payroll for a few years to come. You also can’t take all that money off the books because those guys all have to be replaced.
Some money will free up, but without making a move and building some depth in the minors, it won’t be what you think. Most of it will be reinvested for lesser players given how many are arb eligible at the moment and not on free agent deals. That’s why you trade them now and eat the backlash from RSN.
tgovey
I think they’ll, at least try to, resign Sale, Betts definitely. Bogaerts and JD will be negotiated. JBJ and Porcello will walk or be traded especially JBJ.
They could add 3 $30 million/year contacts out of that group which is a little startling. But it’s not my money and I love the group.
Michael Chaney
For a team with so many upcoming holes to fill, throwing a bunch of money at Nathan Eovaldi seems like poor planning.
That said, it’s possible that they’re going all-in to maximize their window now, and then they’ll retool (or even rebuild) in two years, which sounds like something DD would do. Either way, it’ll be tough to do that with such a poor farm system.
Bruin1012
The Red Sox Window is right now. It makes total sense to go for it now and if because of injuries or poor play then begin to sell of pieces and rebuild the farm. If they contend all year then next year you determine your core players and pay them and lest the rest go. If they go in a rebuild I expect that it would be a short one or two year semi rebuild. They will just get below the lux tax for a couple of rebuilding years.
The real question can DD build the next Red Sox winner. I think he can and I hope he proves it. I know everyone points to the Tigers and that wasn’t DD imo. I think you had an aging owner that wanted to win before he died and directed DD to go for it with veteran players. I may be wrong but we will see the Red Sox will go through some sort of rebuild as early as this trading deadline, if they aren’t in it. Should be very interesting to see what the Sox do.
MauiDan
Cut Pedroia, now or sometime in the near future.
GaryWarriorsRedSoxx
You like eating salary don’t you. That would make way too many guys you’re paying to not play.
MafiaBass
No way. We owe Pedey better than that. How many Red Sox players have three rings? He deserves a shot to come back. If he can’t, then the Sox should release him so he gets paid his money rather than forcing him into retirement without it.
thefenwayfaithful 2
Learn from the Yankees and Jeter. The Sox will keep Pedy around awhile for his leadership but when he’s eating up a roster spot we need for another bullpen arm or callup, he is the only dead weight on the 25 man roster right now.
His once team friendly deal has become a debilitating hamstring to our infield. How many guys lined up at 2B last season? We almost had Betts at 2B because of our misguided faith Pedroia can come back.
I hope he proves me wrong but he will be gone quick if he goes back to the 60 day DL.
StL Busker
Rumors here rumors there
after awhile it’s about as boring as another Jim Callis article
rmullig2
Porcello has no surplus value. He is worth his contract but nothing more so nobody is going to give up a good prospect to get him. The teams most likely to be interested in him are the Yankees and the Astros but I doubt Boston would want to ship him to either team.
Bradley is a nice piece, strong defense and mediocre offense. I’m sure there are teams interested but he only has two years of control left and he isn’t cheap anymore. I don’t think he brings back much either.
Bogaerts is the one who would bring a big package back but they don’t have anyone who could replace him and be half the player he is so he is probably going nowhere.
Bottom line is that Boston probably goes on with the players they have and try to win one or two more championships before the players hit FA and leave.
thefenwayfaithful 2
I can name a dozen teams that would give up a haul for Bogaerts. Braves come to mind as the best fit. However the Braves don’t want to give up high end talents, need a reliable starter, and have some payroll space. Why not package Porcello and Bogaerts to Atlanta, bringing back Swanson, a high end prospect in an area of need like SP, and a few midtier guys. Could throw in a player exchange to balance some of the money. But an Atlanta Boston deal makes too much sense for both squads right now and could theoretically make both teams much better in divisions where they are already a favorite.
Not going to begin to speculate on who Atlanta would be willing to part with under these circumstances but it makes sense to me to find a common ground.
deweybelongsinthehall
Fenwayfaithful, the Braves aren’t giving Swanson and others for one year of Bogie and Porcello especially with the money. I thought Philly might but a third team might be needed.
MafiaBass
The way they handle being behind the plate is so much more important than they way they handle hitting. I think Vasquez is the most expendable of the three. León was too good with the staff and Swihart doesn’t have much value.
deweybelongsinthehall
The Sox need financial relief. Why didn’t they call Jerry DiPoto before the trade with Philly? Might still work out now. Three team deal. Philly likely would take Porcello and might want Boegarts too. They flip Segura to Boston and Trader Jerry gets JBJ. Other parts needed but the framework might still be there either three way or just with Philly. Make it a blockbuster and check all boxes in one swoop.
Bruin1012
Honestly I don’t think Boston needs financial relief now. They have a really good team as is now. I don’t think the Red Sox care too much about the pay roll this year. They will most likely see where they are before the trade deadline and decide what to do. If they have some injuries to key players and it doesn’t look good to repeat then you start breaking it down and start to move some pieces. If they are looking good for another playoff run then go for it and start the rebuild next offseason. I think this talk is smoke and mirrors just to see if someone will clearly overpay then you might see a trade. I expect the Red Sox to not worry too much about pay roll this year.
deweybelongsinthehall
Bruno 1012, the team is smartly trying to look at 2019 AND beyond. They expected more out of 2016 and 2017 and seeing the writing on the wall, doubled-down on aces in ’18 and came up with 21s. Now take some winnings off the table while still trying to play a hot hand. In ’18 everything came up blackjack. If they have injuries or don’t perform, imagine the fire sale they could have in late July. I’m mostly joking but in ’14, they traded Lester for Cespedes who was flipped for Porcillo, got Eric for Miller and picked up Kelly (and Craig) for Lackey. All key pieces in 2018.
deweybelongsinthehall
Sorry Bruin1012, phone changes. Also ERod.
Bruin1012
Dewey that’s kind of my point this team is really good as is right now and a threat to win it all again. If I’m DD I would only trade if I thought it was going to help me win in 2019. I think it unlikely that is too happen however if the Red Sox look like they won’t have a chance to repeat by the trade deadline then you start the rebuild process. I think we are all aware that they can’t sign everyone in the next few years so there is going to be some downgrades starting in 2020.
deweybelongsinthehall
No reason why they can’t try to do both. So much money to the 1% (like all businesses) but they have to put a team of 30 (including disabled) together. Fans are fickle. NESN ratings go down when the Sox don’t win. They can afford one or two down years but still have to develop a multi year plan.