The Dodgers and Reds joined forces on a fascinating seven-player swap on Friday that saw Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig, Alex Wood, Kyle Farmer, and $7MM in cash considerations go to Cincinnati for Homer Bailey and prospects Jeter Downs and Josiah Gray. With so many financial and on-field components to this trade, it isn’t any surprise that has been a lot of analysis surrounding what this means for both the Reds and Dodgers both in terms of the pieces involved in this specific deal, and in future moves both this winter and beyond. Here are some of the many takes on this noteworthy trade…
- Immediately after news of the trade broke, the buzz was that the Dodgers’ latest round of “baseball money-laundering” (as one executive described it to ESPN’s Buster Olney) was a step towards a push for Bryce Harper. It remains to be seen if the Dodgers would really be willing to offer the decade-long, record-breaking contract that agent Scott Boras is demanding for his client, as such a move isn’t characteristic of Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman. A shorter-term deal with a record-setting average annual salary likely wouldn’t appeal to Boras, Olney notes, but Harper himself could be open to such a deal if he is truly as eager to join the Dodgers as some reports have claimed.
- The Dodgers also could have been paring their payroll not for Harper, but for targets in the 2019-20 offseason, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand writes. With Rich Hill, Hyun-Jin Ryu, David Freese, and Bailey’s salary all coming off the books, Los Angeles will have $64MM to spend on free agents and trade targets next winter. Now that the team has finally gotten under the luxury tax threshold, the Dodgers might want to minimize their penalty by only taking a one-year hit next offseason rather than again surpass the threshold this winter (i.e. to sign Harper) and thus position themselves for a heftier repeater tax in a year’s time.
- ESPN.com’s Keith Law (subscription required) didn’t love the trade from the Reds’ perspective, writing that Cincinnati “got a little bit better, but perhaps not as much as they need to” in order to really contend for the postseason. Puig and Wood represent upgrades on paper, though both players come with their share of question marks, and Law argues that the Reds would benefit using Kemp solely as a backup while Jesse Winker gets everyday action in left left. Law provides some scouting info on Downs and Gray, and notes that the Reds got a lot of trade calls about Gray this offseason.
- In contrast to Law, The Athletic’s Mo Egger (subscription required) calls the trade “a no-brainer” move for the Reds, arguing that the team benefits simply by gaining some productive MLB regulars for Bailey, who hasn’t been an effective pitcher for years due to injuries. While this trade alone won’t make the Reds into contenders, Egger feels more is yet to come this offseason, as Cincinnati still hasn’t made any big free agent signings or begun spending its promised extra payroll dollars.
Not sure how i feel about this trade..mixed feelings
I don’t love this trade for either team honestly. However I like it better for the Reds than the Dodgers.
I think the main issue i have is I’m not to fond of the trade for a player just to release them thing that’s happening more and more
They only took Bailey in the first place to get the prospects that the Reds sent, and to more closely line up salaries with the Reds. They didn’t trade *for* Bailey; he was just kind of a consequence of the deal.
Exactly traded for him basically to buy prospects then release him. Which is something only the biggest market teams could do. Which is why I’m not fond of it.
Yeah I dont like it either. But plus side is player gets paid either way.
It gives a small market team a chance to sign him for next to nothing and hope for some success.
Baseball shouldn’t be in markets that can’t compete.
I’m pretty sure Homer Bailey had a no-trade clause that he waived for this deal. So if he was on board with it, then I don’t see an argument against it.
@cowboysoldier
Hows that a plus? As a fan, it still adds to my ticket price, and I don’t see the player on the field. Seems like a minus to me.
the only thing that adds to your ticket prices as a fan is overall demand for tickets
It doesn’t add to your ticket price. Last offseason, the Dodger’s payroll went down and ticket prices went up. Ticket prices have been raised again and we have no clear indication that payroll will increase. When it comes to tickets, owners will charge whatever the market will bear, even if players made minimum wage.
Right….teams will set ticket prices at the level they think maximizes revenue, not based on expenses.
Bailey had 10 and 5 rights, and he only waived them once he was assured he would be released immediately following the completion of the trade.
I just find it funny that the NFL has no problem competing wherever they go. It’s not solely because it’s more fun to watch, it’s popular because every team has an equal shot at becoming a dynasty.
MLB is slowly killing itself. You say that baseball shouldn’t be in a market that can’t compete, but tell me why NFL teams have no problem in cities like Kansas City, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, or Green Bay (Milwaukee)?
Seriously, it makes no sense to be a fan of almost half the teams in MLB. You can point to Kansas City’s World Series, but how long did it take them to get there, and look where they’re at now. Every NFL team has a chance to retain their biggest stars, While a team like Baltimore would be stupid to keep Machado. How are the Pirates considered a small market, but somehow the Stealers thrive.
Seriously, there’s no point to caring about baseball anymore. Go ahead and let Boston buy another one. Maybe the Yankees can beat them this year and play LA in the World Series. Who cares though? More people would rather watch a preseason NFL game.
The Padres took on Chase Headley’s contract to get Bryan Mitchell from the Yankees and released him very early into the season. It was clear beforehand that Headley was shot but they took his contract to buy a prospect.
San Diego is hardly a big market.
You just saw Tulo get released with a lot of $ owed. You sure it’s only the biggest market that does that?
Lol the rays just did this last week but ok
Swept the Scrubs in four straight last year, I’d say that’s pretty damn competative…
What’s curious here is that everyone assumes this opens up the Dodgers to signing Harper, but they really didn’t free up much money (in relation to the deal they’d have to put on the table for Harper). Not only that, none of the deals they parted ways with had long durations left on them, so I hardly think shedding 1-2 year deals has any impact whatsoever on their decisions regarding a 10 year deal.
Yes it frees up space in the outfield for sure, leaving a gap that has to be filled. But does that mean Bryce Harper? I don’t think so. I think that means they wanted to clear some outfield space because they felt there were numerous available solid replacements and they could get some value back.
Its not that I don’t think they are in on Harper. I’m sure they are. But I think other then clearing some outfield space, this deal was independent of the Harper deal and maybe just trying to build some long-term value as their draft position would likely be impacted by a mega-deal for Harper, especially if its shorter term / higher AAV. Say 6/$250 or 7/$300? Almost a sure thing at that point they add any remaining pieces they need and crush the final luxury tax threshold. But that’s all a big, big “if” at this point. I’d personally love to see Harper go to the Dodgers. Keep him out of the AL and get him in the jersey of a historic franchise (not a shot at the Nationals who I think did a great job putting together a class organization with world class talents).
It freed up only 7 mil in actual dollars, but around 16 mil in their CBT threshold figure.
I think the trade has more to do with Realmuto, Kluber and possibly Stanton.
After the 2019 season the Dodgers shed $64 million in payroll. So if they sign Harper they would only go over the limit one year at a 10% tax. Then if they arr under in 2019 it resets. Of course this assumes the Dodgers don’t spend heavly on 2019 free agents.
I like this deal for the Reds because of Wood, though I could see an argument for the Reds utilizing Gray and Downs some other way if any other reliably sourced trade proposals involving those two had emerged.
I also like the deal because of Puig, I think he just needs a change of scenery and more consistent playing time with a batting order spot that’s set. He’s still young enough to go back to what we saw a few years ago.
GAP will have a lot of homers hit with the current players plus Puig and Kemp and will fill the seats. Two new pitchers with previous staff should be decent.
Great comment.
Dodgers experts at baseball money-laundering trades lol
Friend can you explain this baseball money laundering idea. I honestly not sure how this is seen in that light.
Sure thing. I got the rhetoric from Buster above. Brought vibes of earlier trade to get below lux tax and this was made to save $$, OF spots to make a run at Bryce. Clever.
mobile.twitter.com/buster_espn/status/107623872737…
It is literally written in the article…
They traded equal dollars and some value for a lower luxury tax hit. It is simple.
Really an explanation needed?your suppose to read before answering
He asked a question because he didn’t understand the explanation. It’s not a technically correct comparison, either.
Stop being a jerk
Exactly…
The people that have a problem with the dodgers doing this are the same people who want a salary floor. Once a salary floor is in Mlb if these simpletons get their way these deals will become common place. They want their cake and to eat it too.
If Harper is smart he takes a short term deal. 160/5 with an opt out after 3 years. He’ll only be 29 by then. He could easily get another 8 or 9 year deal.
Or an opt out at 1 year and 3 though I doubt anyone would give that out.
At age 29 three years from now,,,he will be considered ancient,,,young pups taking over,,,take an 8year deal now,,,,,good trade by LA , puig and Kemp are close to done
Puig is not “close to done.” I’m a Giants fan, I dislike his antics, but I’d take him on my team in a heartbeat. Plays hard and at the worst be a 20 HR .250 guy with great speed and a cannon in RF. Good player.
Smart guy. You’re automatically my favorite Giants fan. Of which I had none.
What you want Puig for?
You’ve been touting Harper to Giants for a month now.
^^ey enters the drama with the first post!!
But he also routinely causes outfield miscues because he refuses to listen to other players call him off fly balls.
Well the Reds are gonna put him in CF so he won’t have to worry about that
Giants fans are peculiar in their delusions….
Snake apparently you’ve never wat hed Puig play. Close to done?lol He has his best full season he’s had this past year. Really wish people who don’t know wht they’re talking about would just say nothing. The world would be a better place.
get off your high horse
Said the guy riding high…lol
If Harper was smart he’d get an 8 year deal with an opt out. No reason he shouldn’t get himself the length
Why would Harper take a 5 year deal even with the opt out? Security is a big factor for players and Harper knows he could be injured in the first year of his contract. The smart thing for him is to max out now. He’s worth more as a 26 year-old than he’ll be as a 29 year-old.
Conversely, why would any team give Harper an 8 or 9 year deal 3 years from now? If some team is offering him 5 years, just offer him more. Offering him 10 now makes more sense than offering him 8-9 3 years from now.
If I’m a GM that kind of short term deal is exactly what I want. Harper is a streaky player who has been below league average in 3 of the past 5 years (bWAA). His fielding abilities are already declining.
Good power and ability to take a walk do NOT always age well, just ask Ryan Howard.
Even an elite team like LA has no way of knowing they’ll be competitive in 5-plus years, and the last thing a fading gray-beard team needs is a 30 mil/year anchor who can’t bat his weight. (Again… Ryan Howard.)
He’s 26, your talking like it’s a true unknown. In 5 years he’s 31, Goldie’s age. Not to bad. Gray beards? On a very young team. That will always spend $.
Or he takes as long as he can get because eventually teams will stop giving out these contracts with huge amount of years. Nobody knows when it will happen but it eventually will. Baseball is the only sport giving out these deals that are a decade long.
Baseball operations costs are skyrocketing. Teams are paying big salaries to analytics, medical professionals, and accountants. Baseball business employs a lot of people now with good jobs. No more is it just front offices, players, concessions, and grounds crews. Sure, players’ shares are going down on a relative basis but that doesn’t necessarily mean owner profits are jimmy jacking. Decade long deals hand cuff teams from paying all of the other people who make winning possible.
Either the Dodgers or Phillies are going to drop $280+ guaranteed on him now, and the smart thing would be to say “thank you.” The 27-8 teams who aren’t offering him 35AAV now, won’t be offering it when he’s 29.
And does Bryce want to go through FA again the same year as that Trout kid?
This was a decent trade for the Reds but Keith Law is correct. The Reds are somewhat better all of the players received are under contract for only one season, and they also still have work to do in improving the team
Only if the Reds were to do nothing else does Keith Law have a point.
Most likely the Reds are not done and this trade is only a part of the process. To isolate and criticize it at the moment is foolish until we see the finished product.
It’s an analysis of the trade itself, chill out
It is not an insightful analysis. I love reading the comments that the Reds are in a tough division, why would they try to trade for Kluber, why did they trade for Puig, and Wood? It’s insanity to think because you were at the basement of the division for 4 years, you shouldn’t try to improve your team. Are the good enough today to win the division? No, but they are in a better place than they were. If they make the right move or two, then yes they could. Add Kluber, or Dallas to the rotation and they have as good of a shot as any other NL central team.
Health is also a big factor and although the Reds are in a tough division, if they make a few more moves like you suggested then they have as much depth as their competitors.
The reds improve by playing their young players and letting them develop into regulars. If your losing for several seasons like the reds and don’t have young players pushing themselves on the roster than the GM is useless and you shouldn’t trust him to sign free agents and make trades.
Iverbure- The Reds have one of the best farm systems in baseball and should arrive in 2020. Nick Senzel will be up very quickly in 2019. None of these players are on long deals…and will help them in 2019 which is a bridge year. I believe the moves are being made to send a message to players that they plan fo contend…so that they can maybe more easily acquire players next offseason to augment their young core coming on.
I also dont believe they are done this offseason and predict well see another SP added.
They got rid of a dead contract for two guys that will likely walk, but will contribute for the same amount of money.
reds are the 4th best team in the division. only thing they can do is hope to do is flip them for prospects at the deadline.
BS…they aren’t done and they’ll be there. Btw.. read an article yesterday that claimed “prospects are the lifeblood I’d a small market team”…way to plagiarize.
For the time being, that seems like the most likely outcome to me.
The Reds just added a ton of offense and with the two new pitchers mixed with the old I think anything could happen. On paper are they better than others in their division, no but much improved. Still need a CF. with Gennett going for that.
Reds had the 7th best offense in the game LAST season….ANY kind of pitching improvement makes them vastly better
I watch a lot of Reds games, probably around 110/year and a lot of “baseball experts” are going to be eating a ton of crow in 2019. One thing that a lot of people don’t realize is the Reds at one point last year, before Duvall was traded and Winker went out for the season, were something like 36-4 in games that they got a quality start in. The problem was that this was probably 120 games into the season, they just didn’t get many quality starts. Homer Bailey started 20 games in 2018, the Refs were 1-19 in those games. They will likely get another starter, if that happens and it is a trip top of the rotation guy or at least close to it, the Reds will be a force in the NL.
Reds offense was solid and only improved it with Puig, Kemp & Farmer. Wood is a solid add into the rotation, if Puig & Wood have solid years they will most likely reject their Qualifying offers and recoup the two comp picks they Gave the Dodgers.
If they add Keuchel they will be a solid overall team that will at least give a positive year for their prospects to grow and contribute.
Solid move for the Reds and a solid move by the Dodgers in dealing from areas of depth to free up AAV money and acquired a couple solid prospects
Amazing trade. Gives the Dodgers some room to sign Harper, and get a couple more BP arms. (Kelvin Herrera, Hunter Strickland fit our mold.) Trade for Realmuto sounds good, if the price is too high go after a guy like Francisco Cervelli from PIT.
Strickland and Harper don’t mix well together lol
This obviously is a domino to future Dodger moves. Cinn enjoy Puig, Kemp, Farmer, and Wood. As a die hard Dodger fan treat them right and they will produce.
Well said
I’d love to have Puig play for Mets.
I’m really surprised Mets weren’t in on Puig? Or perhaps they were considering Puig in the three team trade with Syndergaard and Realmuto
Agreed except Kemp…it doesn’t seem to matter how well he’s treated, if he’s not in LA he’s not producing. It’s odd, but it’s true.
As I Reds fan I really like this move. It will make them better (maybe not playoff worthy) and put butts in seats. On top of that they’ll have the chance to flip any of the 3 players mid season for prospects, or get a few compensation picks when the players turn down the impending qualifying offers. Not too sure why some analysts are hating on the Reds.
If you are not on one of the coasts (Or in Chicago) , Law hates you, as does most of the media.
I see the same thing here in Colorado.
We are in the fly over part of the country.
GO REDS
*the north side of Chicago
Yep…
“law hates you., as does most of the media. …We are in the fly over part of the country..”
That sounds like something from Faux “news” – or a Russian troll-farm.
It’s a tired, trollish, poor-us-persecution-complex. thing to say.
Stop dispensing paranoia, hate, and divisiveness. And maybe even grow up a little, while you’re at it.
This was the Only awful commit in this piece. It was a nice to read the commit section for a change on mlbtr tonight
There is a lot of bias on both Coasts it like their little world and nothing else has value. I used to travel a lot in my job and saw it often.
You think Puig or Wood gets a QO. If puig goes off maybe, but I doubt it.
As a neglected fan let me entertain my delusions of grandeur 😉
Because they traded 2 good prospects to do that.
As a 20-year Reds fan I’ve seen plenty of prospects become everyday starters and all stars. But I’ve also seen far more become busts. And recently the Reds organization has seen plenty of pitching busts. I wish both prospects the best of luck but I’m not going to fret over the loss of talent
The Reds should recoup the same prospects value or more when they flip Puig and Wood at the deadline. Not sure if they will get much for Kemp, unless he has another good first half. And in the meantime they got rid of Homer Bailey and paid seven mil. I’m a Dodger fan, but this totally makes since for the Reds
Good call…
Because they despise our team for some reason…but, do we care what they think?! No.
I would love if Votto’s professionalism has a big effect on Puig and we finally get to see all of the potential realized.
If Adrian Gonzales went no where with Puig Joey has no hope.
How does trading for any of those players put butts in seats? This narrative that teams need fans to pay for seats at games is hilariously inaccurate. I betcha you can’t find a single fan who will go to a game in Cincy because the reds acquired Puig or any of the other non stars they acquired. Fans go to baseball games when the team is winning and if there’s nothing else new and exciting going on, not because they acquired a couple non impact veterans who will help the reds improve enough to cost them ssveral million in the draft making the rebuild longer.
Iverbure you are obviously not a Reds fan and obviously you do not watch Reds games. Reds fans are dying off, literally. The four straight years of 94-95 losses have taken a toll on the fan base, especially in this new get it all now society. Adding Roark, Wood, Puig and Kemp to a team that has a very good offense will go a long way toward rebuilding the trust between the team and it’s fan base and my wife and I have already started planning on going to a few games, something we haven’t done in a very long time. There is also an excitement in Reds country because Dick Williams has said on a number of occasions that they are not done yet!!
I gotta wait to see what the Dodgers next moves are before I really know how I feel about this trade. If they don’t go out and make upgrades with that money they are saving and open roster spots I’d have to say I dislike the trade because all of those guys would be free agents anyways next year. Just not sure what to think about the trade right now but maybe they’ll sign some guys or make some trades that will make it all seem like a smart move. We shall see.
Good trade for both sides. It’s up to the Reds to get a bunch of bounce back candidate SPs now. Dallas Keuchel, Danny Duffy, Sonny Gray, maybe even call the Marlins and ask about Jose Urena or Dan Straily. They need to stockpile on pitching and hope something clicks.
Dan Straily!! That would be a nice reunion.
It’s the best they can do. They can’t afford to lose Senzel and Mahle/Castillo have decent potential and should at the very least be in the bullpen.
Marlins would gladly trade Reds Straily.
Why does everyone bring up Sonny Grey? We already got two pitchers with better upside than him. He was thought of before these two but now, NO. It’s a 1`/2 or no one.
Reds should reach out to Yanks about Sonny Gray
A road center fielder and just one of these talented starters gets great (Castillo)- reds go from losing 90+; to winning almost that many. One more year and our young stars (lots of money to spend)- play offs in 2020. Fun going this direction finally
I like what the reds are doing. Loved watching them back in the early 2010s mainly because they had 2 of the most fun players to watch in the league; Brandon Phillips and Johnny Cueto. But the division is tough and right now they need some underperformance from the Cubs and regression from the Brewers. Nothing is impossible though, I wouldn’t count them out. My money is the Cardinals win the division.
3 better teams in the same division….
Says the forever naysayer…that’s why they play the games…all 162…
reds are garbage
Love that optimism…you’re right!!
I think the Dodgers did well in getting the prospects and by saving on payroll. They may use those prospects and/or other prospects in a deal to get Kluber and/or Realmuto so I think this part 1 of a 3 part story. In regards to Cinci, don’t grade this out until they flip a few guys at the deadline. Someone will give them a better prospect or two for two of the guys the acquired and if Kemp is down to part time work and is able to be fresher later in the season, they might flip all 3 for better prospects than the ones they gave up. I say this is a win/win for both sides. Stay tuned because Dodgers and Cincinnati are not done and Cinci is definitely banking on better early season returns to keep people interested until they are out of it by July trading deadline. Puig will be interesting to watch in his walk year and if he puts up Cespedes like numbers (Tigers flipped him for Fulmer), the Cinci could come out way ahead. Check back in July!
@dkaner
Can’t wait to see what the Dodgers get when they flip Bailey at the deadline.
The Dodgers released Bailey.
His statement had Joke written all over it. Hockeyjohn, it went right over your head.
The Dodgers need to do something significant this offseason with the payroll room saved or else the trade makes no sense. It really has to be Harper or Kluber. Having to make a trade like this to sign Pollock or DJ Lemahieu is pretty pathetic for a huge market team
What the Dodgers saved wont pay for even a one year deal with either of those two.
LeMahieu has terrible splits away from Coors, he’s a big thumbs down
Great trade. Sets Dodgers and Yankees blockbuster up perfectly.
Stanton (22 mill salary cap hit with 1 opt out after 2020 season) to LA
Yankees receive Julio Urias and Dustin May (no relations to Rudy May).
Yanks sign Harper 8 years 320 mill with 3 opt outs.
Yanks sign Manny Machado 7 years 280 mill with 2 opt outs.
Yanks keep Miggy Andujar.
Win win for everyone.
How about the Dodgers keep their players and the Yankees keep Stanton. Why are Yankee fans trying to trade him if they pump him up like he’s the best outfielder in the league?
Couldn’t possibly be a great conversation about the Reds without a Crankys fan spouting off and trying to dominate the conversation fer the luv a God.
Why would the Dodgers do that? Yankee fans are the worst.
bro, get serious
Only see the win for the Yankees.
Better Dodgers just keep their kids and just sign Harper.
Exactly! This idiot thinks it’s a win for everyone cause the Yankees get over.
Yankee fans are really delusional with these constant Stanton proposals on here. Your not getting a package like that, or other ones seen here centered around Lux and White. If Stanton goes to the Dodgers its a pure salary dump for a mid level lottery ticket
Yankees be like spoiled kid born into millions, “ooooooo shiny and sparkly….dad I want that!”
moron
please, pass me the bong
Your an idiot with zero concept of actual baseball. First even the Yankees are signing 2 players both to 40 million $ contracts in the same off season. Second Why would the Dodgers give up great prospects to trade for a player that’s not as good as the player they can sign without losing prospects? 3rd pull your head out of your Yankee ass and come back down to earth.
What’s with all the Yankee fans obsession with trading Stanton to Dodgers? The Stanton train in LA left the station last year.
I didn’t like the trade just because I love to watch Puig play. But the Dodgers got some prospects while dumping players a year away from free agency and saving money in the process.I don’t really understand the people saying we lost the trade. Seems fair to me.
It would be really interesting to hear the Reds side of the story from the people who actually know the Reds. Not some random guy like Keith Law who knows close to nothing about them. But that won’t happen with this bias against a small market team. So, let me help guys:
Huge majority of the fan base in Cincy KNOWS it is a very good trade since Puig and Woods makes us a lot better NOW, got rid of a terrible contract (Bailey) with 10-5 rights, got a useful player (Kemp), a decent utility player (Farmer) and $7 mm. I’m pretty sure that Puig and Wood may be offered a QO/trade at the deadline so they can recoup those kids who are the 9th and 13th prospect in the farm system, Downs is blocked by at least 4 players at 2B, both are at least 3+ years away.. Gray is ok but very raw and never played above rookie ball.
They will be better THIS SEASON, bringing excitement back to town, waiting for the REAL PROSPECTS (Senzel, Trammel, Greene, India, Santillan, TylerSteph, etc) to develop and start beyond 2020..
One more thing: After the end of the season, almost $60 mm come off the books. So there experts. You’re welcome..
Well said sir…I’m looking forward to the season…
That’s pretty spot on. It should cost the Reds roughly 7M to add Puig, Kemp, and Wood to their 19 roster, plus the young prospects given up. Both have potential, but both are prospects. Downs had a lot of players in front of him, Gennett, Senzel, India, and Long.
Also the loss of Bailey is a huge positive for the Reds. The Reds have artfully gotten rid of a huge burden to the team, both financially and clubhouse wise. The players see whats going on to, they see that the Reds are serious. They let Hamilton go to because he wasn’t going to be apart of a winning team.
YEP, HR’s bring people in seats and it should be fun.
great comment
It would be a BIG fat L if the Dodgers dont sign Harper now. it looks like they already got the deal but they waiting for new years just like Machado.
Harper is a lefty. Dodgers have an all lefty lineup pretty much. Harper will demand 8/320 at very least. Dodgers will certainly go over the cap with that hit. Stanton costs 22mill per year against the cap and outs up better offensive numbers. Harper is much better suited for Yankee Stadium left field them Stanton who truly belongs in RF where Judge is. This is the simple reason this trade makes sense but all the anger spewing from these Dodger fans is not necessary. Be happy. If the Yanks don’t trade Stanton I’m very happy he’s a Yankee. Love watching his interviews and his at bats. Just don’t like that he’s clogging up the DH spot.
Nice try but Stanton is no where near the talent of Harper. +. Harper has been a monster from day one. He has hit the 12th most home runs ever through a players age 25 season and has the fourth-most home runs in a single season by a 22-year old from his MVP season in 2012. Harper is a hitting machine with runners on base, an issue the Dodgers had all season. With a runner on any base, Harper has hit a career .295 with a .523 slugging percentage. Harper would bring value to the heart of the lineup. Post-All-Star break Harper was unstoppable. He hit .300, a mark he has maintained for entire seasons, and upped his OPS to .972; Harper was proving he is more than just homers. Batting average aside, Harper still produced 34 home runs, 100 RBI’s, an .889 OPS and a 133 OPS+. Don’t have Stanton and may never but Just keep your albatross Stanton.
The Reds came out ahead just by giving up 2 mid-level prospects to take Bailey’s contract. The 4 players they got are just gravy. Absolutely a huge win for the Reds.
I love the analysis of this trade that it “doesn’t make the Reds a postseason team.”
Because you can’t possibly make any more moves lol
I do think the Red’s gave a pretty substantial prospect price for short term players. The aspect not really being discussed is the Reds HAD to make improvements, but they’re not playing fantasy baseball or maneuvering in a vacuum. Reports keep coming out that the Reds have tried, with little luck, to lure some free agents. If that’s the case, they are at least making roughly/debateably market moves that are making their team more competitive.
Also adding players by trade who makes them more competitive now shows they want to win and not giving up the biggest names on the farm show they care about winning sustainably which can vastly improve their allure to potential free agents.
I like this trade to be honest. To be fair this trade is understandable and somewhat foreseeable. All three guys traded, were in the last year of their contracts, weren’t in the future plans, and not all to happy with their roles which I respect. It sucks from a fan side, because they had been fun to watch. With that said, their usage down the stretch made it clear they were probably going to be churned. I’m glad Kemp handled his second time round better than the first. I’m glad we were able to see Puig mature and not jettisoned on bad terms. The reality of this situation is they traded Wood and Kemp who were superfluous and didn’t possess much value. And they could have honestly received ready to be filler pieces, but prospect wise they did well. Puig as exciting and fun to watch really didn’t fit this team anymore. I don’t doubt that Puig may hit 30-35 HRs in GAB, but his inability to hit LHP hurt the fit. I didn’t really think Farmer was going to make it through the roster crunch. His inability to actually C hurt him the most. I hope all 4 see tremendous success.
With that said this was sort of a necessary evil of having such a crowded roster and more on the farm. I still think there is some necessary thinning at the upper levels and more churning. I think they look to move Verdugo, Muncy, & Strip to fit more needs. The last 15 on the 40 man most likely looks completely different with maybe the exception of Urias, Santana, and Ferguson. They clearly aren’t done, and on the other hand there are only a few spots they need to fill. The wishlist is still basically Kluber, Cervalli, and a RH 1b/LF to lengthen the lineup. That and basically stand in line to be big suitors in the Arenado sweepstakes.
I think the thing I like best about the trade from the Dodgers perspective is they did right by their players.
Puig wanted more ABs against southpaws.
Wood deserves a shot to showcase his talents as he approaches FA for the first time.
Kemp probably wasn’t in the plans for 2018 — but he almost definitely wouldn’t have been in the plans for 2019.
I think that’s the portion you have to weigh out. Which is tough to grasp when you’re solely looking at value. It’s somewhat in the same arena when discussing Strip. He basically deserves an opportunity to start, and he’s not going to really get that from the Dodgers. It appeared likely to happen from the get go. But I’m glad they paved the way for Puig and Wood in which is a big year for both.
Well-said and I agree about Strip.
If you say the exact opposite as Law writes in his articles you will be right more than 80% of the time. The Reds just got 6 WAR better in this trade. Dumping Hamilton alone is a plus for them. Roark is another couple of wins vs their #4 last season. Kemp won’t play more than 120 games so he is not an impediment to Winkler getting AB. Puig is also not going to play 150 games, so there will be more ab there. They are still not quite a playoff team, but they are much better and all the guys they picked up from the Dodgers are one year commitments, so they don’t block anyone. The Reds are not done either. We keep hearing their name in trade and FA rumors.
Feinsand’s point that the Dodgers are saving money for the 2019-20 offseason makes zero sense. All the guys they traded have one year left and would have come off the books after the 2019 season. Instead, they’ll now have Homer Bailey’s $17ish million on the books for 2020.
Bailey is only owed $5 million for a buyout of the 2020 . Not $17 million.
Ah ma buddy KLAW….he was such a good go-fer in Richardi’s Toronto FO……two guys who are paradigms for the expression, “those who can, do….those who can’t, teach”. Or in this case write for ESPN.
Advantage is EASILY to the Reds. They ditch Bailey, and, rather than paying him to sit home, get three reasonably decent players, all in their contract years, which could easily influence their relative performances positively. Puig, especially, has almost always played on a guaranteed contract….let’s see how he does when he’s playing for his supper.
Yes the Reds gave up a couple of prospects; decent guys, questionable ceilings….Gray over-performed as a college pitcher in advanced Rookie (yada, yada, yada) and Downs (who to be fair has a makeup that’s off the charts) has always looked like a utility guy. We’re not talking Vlad Jr. here.
The REDS can EASILY get equal prospect value back for the trio (or segment thereof) on July 31, if things don’t work out in 2019; what contending team doesn’t want a LH playoff-experienced pitcher, or a power RH bat, to round out their roster?
There’s more value in those 3 than there is in Homer Bailey; Homer doesn’t have the value of Beetle Bailey. Now is it enough to make the Reds competitive? No, but it’s only December; let’s see where it goes the rest of the winter.
I see a pretty fair trade with lots of variance on both sides. Reds get three years of high-variance control (one year each of Kemp, Puig, and Wood) whereas Dodgers get 12 years of higher-variance specs.
Honest assessment of the Reds haul:
-Kemp’s trade value was nearly as poor as Bailey’s. Dodgers would’ve been lucky to find someone to take on more than like ~$6MM of his deal. Steamer projects 0.2 fWAR and that wouldn’t surprise me.
-Alex Wood is a nice piece but it’s only one year of control and he’s been trending down. He’s reverting back to the windup so maybe that’ll help. I like the guy so I hope it does. Steamer projects him for 0.6 fWAR, which I think is a little light but not by much.
-Puig is the big get. I wouldn’t be surprised if he experiences a breakout season in that ballpark. Reds fans will love this guy. You’ll see. I’d expect Puig to receive a QO after the year, meaning the Reds will at least recoup a draft pick.
*These are just my speculations as a fan. Baseball is weird and who knows what will actually happen*
I agree generally with your take on this trade.
But that old insult to the teaching profession,“those who can, do….those who can’t, teach”, is almost entirely untrue and mean-spirited, and belongs in the trash can of history.
You are correct…coming from a family of folks in education, they often remind me of the same thing. And in general I accept the premise that one who has failed at an endeavor is totally more useful, knowledge-wise, than someone who never even tried it.
It was a mis-use……regrettable, but not mean spirited…..
If I teach you that 2+2 is 4 , then the next class comes in, but if I take that knowledge and build a skyscraper who has done more. NO the saying is very true because teaching is repetitive, but do we need them, absolutely.
Puig is an elite hitter against RHP. This trade makes the team demonstrably worse and the FO isn’t gonna grade for a better RHH if it’s got its eye on Nick Castellanos-type players and adding Verdugo to the OF just exacerbates the problem. Look for a July/August pickup kids.
Verdugo is a better contact hitter and just as good a fielder. Not sure what you mean there.
Loved this trade for the Dodgers, we could not give away Puig’s low salary in 2017 and now we are actually getting prospects and payroll relief? And all we had to do was toss in nearly broken Alex Wood? Sold!!!!!!!
Great trade for both sides. Dodger fan here. Puig has a chance to hit 40 home runs the way the ball flies out of that stadium.. You will really like Puig he is fun as hell and a fantastic defender. Kemp could surprise and hit another 20 home runs if he gets enough time. cin got rid of a horrible Bailey for Wood who is easily capable and better than Bailey. Huge improvement over there. For LA we might end up with Kluber or Harper. Seems better for cincinnati.
unless Dodgers sign an impact bat they will feel this trade in 2019. Bush will be released at some point. its all about money…but the dodgers make it till the end but can’t win…so they needed to free up money somehow. we will see how it plays out
I reckon the Reds like spending lots of them dollars and not getting many taters (or ribbies) for what they spent.
You obviously do not know about the Reds or the ballpark. Puig and Kemp combined for 44 homers in 867 at-bats in 2018. The Reds outfield combined to hit 53 homers in 1,835 at-bats in 2018.
If they have the same amount of AB’s, they will most likely improve upon their total HR’s by 10-15 I would think. This trade was a no-brainer for the Reds. Wish the Reds had to worry about luxory tax issues!!
Keith Law. Lol.
I agree with many that Puig will thrive offensively playing half of his games in Cinn. Kemp ran out of gas last season after a strong start and is no longer physically able to play as a regular, I think it will likely be worse playing in the Summer heat and humidity in Cinn. compared to LA. Before the next trading deadline I look for Reds to trade its 6 players who may become FA’s after the 2019 season — Kemp and Wood could be moved before the season starts.
It could be misjudging, Matt Kemp looked heavier late in the season than he did at the beginning. However, its not uncommon for players to slump as both he and Yasiel Puig did late season.
The Dodgers are starting to look old.
With these unrealistic contracts being handed out, expect it to become a trend to “catch and release” bad contracts in the name of payroll stability for players like Homer Bailey and Adrian Gonzalez.
I meant to write: The Dodgers are starting to look like a a unique cast of Young veterans.
Interesting way to characterize it. Buehler certainly looks like the new ace, Bellinger is a plus plus CF, much more valuable there than at 1B, and getting Seager back is huge. Contending while rebuilding was expensive as hell, but it appears they actually did it.
This is what I was just thinking… I was looking at sportstrac for the contract obligations moving forward, and its a crazy idea, but given their lack of commitments beyond 2020, they are in a position to say screw the luxury tax threshold for 2 years and Harper and even add another big bat or arm while these guys still have a few years of arb eligibility and cost control remaining. They really don’t have much in terms of long-term obligations to guys not named Kershaw and Jansen. In fact, in 2021, they are the only 2 large guaranteed salaries on the Dodger payroll.
The Yankees and Dodgers found their end goal in very different ways, but both managed an impressive organizational overhaul without sacrificing many good years.
Excellent point about Bellinger’s defense talent needed in CF more than 1b
it’s all about Seager next year. if he’s ready to go and plays at his former level, the Dodgers will be fine and win the division for a sixth year in a row. playoffs are a crap shoot, except for the Astros and Red Sox.
Which unrealistic contracts have the Dodgers handed out? They’ve been conservative on the FA market. Bailey represents the last of the dead money from the Punto trade. The Dodgers just got younger by ditching Kemp.
Yea… lol. People assume just because a team has a high payroll that they bought their way there. The Dodgers have always used the system to their advantage in recent years and used their payroll muscle to facilitate deals, but other then Kershaw and Jansen, they really haven’t handed out huge deals. They’ve just taken them on from other teams.
Its actually quite different and takes a lot more strategy and playing “risk” then just going out there and signing guys to big deals.
Justin Turner got a nice contract from Dodgers same time as Jansen was signed, but your point is spot on about Dodgers using the system.
Turner got the same contract essentially as Melancon, which is crazy. I recall Turner’s agent saying that other teams offered more, including the Giants, but he said Turner wouldn’t even listen to them. He’s a socal guy, he was a Dodger fan growing up, it was enough money, and it was his dream, literally, come true. It isn’t too often you see that come to pass.
I personally love this trade. Going to be really cool to see Puig in a different market. Alex Wood still has so much potential, and Kemp would be a beast of a player to have off the bench. Not to mention some level of more veteran leadership. Reds get a B++ in my book.
I don’t love the trade, but believe there’s more to come. And I don’t think it’s Harper. They got rid of Puig because he doesn’t act like a right hand hitter…IE, he hasn’t hit lefties for 2 years. And Kemp had a good year, but tailed off and they think they can get better value. So why add Harper, another lefty?
They propped up their prospects because they are going to make a trade and lose some. I hope it’s Kluber. Ryu (can they trade him?), Verdugo and a couple lower prospects for Kluber. Then Castellanos in trade, FA LeMahue, and a catcher on one year cheap deal. I think that keeps them under the luxury tax.
I don’t think Ryu is going anywhere, it’s rare that guys come back from the injury he had, let alone be effective. Right or wrong, Stripling is more likely to be dealt.
I think either Ryu or Hill will be traded — both getting $18MM in 2019.
That’s exactly why they’re unlikely to be traded. If they do get moved, it would be in a salary dump similar to the Farmer trade, but there’s no urgency to do that with three spots available on the 40 man roster, along with room under the CBT threshold. I think other dominoes would have to fall in order to make moving one or both of them a necessity. We just have to wait, unfortunately. In the hot stove season, February is the new December.
Stripling’s performance is the equal of Ryu and Maeda last season and better than Hill and only making a fraction of the money. Teams pursuing Keuchel that lose out may be interested in Hill or Ryu. This assumes that Dodgers trade for Kluber or (shudder) Bauer.
Exactly, Stripling is an asset that could net a real return. Hill and Ryu would both be salary dumps.
Exactly, Dodgers trade for Kluber and his $17+MM contract will find a team to take Hill or Ryu, even if Dodgers kick in $5MM
Except the Dodgers don’t place the same value in back end arms. Look at the prospect arms they’ve traded. The basic fact is Strip was really good for a portion of his starts then he was figured out a bit and gassed at about 100 IP. There is really no road to the rotation for him in trading for Kluber especially with Urias and Santana. You don’t trade Ryu or Hill for a salary dumps because of their playoff success and led you to the WS. Hill has basically been nails for two straight seasons. And to be honest it’s the same exact guy they’d be looking to trade for at the deadline.
Strip has some net value and could provide you some mlb talent in area of needs. What it also comes down to is they have some close to ready/ready arms that can fill Strips role. They don’t have that to fill Hill or Ryu. It’ll be sad to see Strip go, but for a playoff team it’s not like you can count on him to post even for 150 IP.
Harper has done well in the past against LH’ers. Indians are not going to take back Ryu and his $17.9MM contract for Kluber. Forget LeMahieu — other than his defense a vastly over-rated player — Marwin Gonzalez is a MUCH better free agent to sign for 2b. Castellanos bat is good, but his defense is horrid.
Why would Cleveland take Ryu as part of a trade for Kluber? That absolutely makes no sense for the Indians. I wish people would look at both teams needs before proposing trades. Logical trades meeting both teams needs I think would draw more interesting discussion.
If the Dodgers traded Rich Hill his AAV alone $16 would cover Kluber~$7.7AAV Realmuto~$4 and Nick Castellanos~$6
Puig takes at bats from Hamilton. Win.
What are the Reds next moves? Even if they get Keuchel, I don’t see them earning a wildcard. Cards and Brewers would still be unquestionably better, and doubt Cubs flounder as badly as this past season.
Maybe they should sign Pollock and trade for Kluber if they really want to contend.
This was a great trade for Cincy, ,they get immediate + production guys in Puig and Wood, while turning Baily into Kemp. For a team that is ready to start winning now, its a cheap way to pick up + talent. As for the Dodgers, this trade looks like a straight salary dump unless they really love cincy’s # 7 propect Jeter Downs., which I have a hard time believing. The Diodgers grade on this trade will be determined when they spend the money they are saving by shedding these salaries. If its just a straight salary dump, not a trade I am a fan of.
The prospects Dodgers got are straight studs
You hit it on the head. Assuming Puig is going to play CF, the Reds went from Bailey and Hamilton to Wood and Puig.
The Roark deal was underwhelming, but he’s a dramatic upgrade from whomever was rotating through the fourth spot in the rotation at any point in the last three years.
Pitching health has been the issue during this playoff drought. If any of Disco, Wood, Castillo, and Roark all start 25+ games next year, the Reds are a legit postseason contender.
This was a GREAT trade for Cincinnati.
And, btw, “play Winker every day in left” is a no-brained. Kemp is a very highly paid 4th outfielder and a nice insurance policy for the perpetually injured Scott Schebler.
This is a slam dunk for the Reds. They traded 3 players they don’t want on the roster for the foreseeable future for their new best SP and their new best OF. Kemp has a bad contract, but he’s a major leaguer. Bailey is a worse player with a worse contract. On top of all that, the Dodgers gave the Reds millions of dollars.
Not that anyone would accuse Keith Law (not anyone at ESPN) of being a brainiac, saying that you don’t like a trade because it doesn’t solve every problem a team has is particularly brain dead, even for ESPN
I get that players get guaranteed contracts. But does the way the Dodgers and other clubs who move guys like this to free up money not worry free agents? If I’m Machado or Harper and I sign a 10 year contract I want to b able to set down some roots in the city I’m playing not worry about getting halfway thru the contract and them move me to free up money for the next hot free agent
“No-trade clause”
If this results in Kluber and Harper going to Los Angeles it is a great deal for the Dodgers. On the surface right now however seems like a great deal for Cincinnati.
correct me if I am wrong but the Dodgers exercised Freese’s option.