After a busy day of arbitration decisions, it’s worth taking stock of some recent developments in the broader market. We’ve already touched upon some major storylines today, with looks at Patrick Corbin (link), Zack Greinke (link), and Carlos Carrasco (link). Here’s more …
- Though Corbin seems to be captivating the market at present, chatter on Nathan Eovaldi is also “heating up,” per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (Twitter link). Unsurprisingly, the Red Sox and Astros are presently seen as prime contenders to land him. With the American League shaping up to be another clash of titans, those organizations are positioned t stake some dough on Eovaldi’s upside.
- The Yankees are a major player on Corbin, of course, but also some other arms — and not just as a backup plan. Indeed, per Jayson Stark of The Athletic (via Twitter), the club could even add another significant starter if it does get Corbin. That’d be quite a surprise, given that the team would appear to have a clear starting five if Corbin signs, but perhaps there’s a way to pull something off that would still make sense and leave the club with immense rotation depth.
- Meanwhile, southpaw J.A. Happ is said to have “ten teams chasing” him at this point, per Jon Heyman of Fancred. One of those is the Brewers, who’d presumably like to bolster their rotation but also don’t appear to have an immense amount of money to use. Of course, giving up on Jonathan Schoop clears a big piece of payroll, so long as the club finds a way to address its infield needs without using all the savings.
- There’s also a “strong” market for Japanese hurler Yusei Kikuchi, Heyman tweets. Unsurprisingly, west coast clubs — the Dodgers, Padres, Giants, and Mariners, at least — appear to be lining up for the 27-year-old. It’s still hard to know what kind of salary and duration he’ll be able to command. But as this particular list of clubs shows, Kikuchi’s unusual youth will play a major role in his market by opening the door to quite a few organizations to pursue him.
- Elsewhere, the Yankees are still trying to offload an asset in Sonny Gray. Per Ken Davidoff of the New York Post, with GM Brian Cashman saying he has discussed a multitude of different scenarios involving Gray, including some larger deals. That suggests that the Yanks are comfortable hanging onto Gray for a while as they sort through the possibilities, rather than putting him on the market and taking the best deal then available.
- Gray is as good as gone from the team’s perspective, but that’s clearly not the same situation for Giants ace Madison Bumgarner. The burly southpaw is reportedly on the table. But that doesn’t mean he’ll be priced at a level that will lead to a deal. Indeed one organizational source tells Heyman (Twitter link) they “don’t see [Bumgarner] going anywhere this winter.” Certainly, the Giants have little need to dump Bumgarner if they aren’t getting something worthwhile in return. Teams with interest, though, will remain wary of a big price for one season of a player with recent shoulder woes and some performance questions.
kvnmaret
“The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim sign Kikuchi…”
xabial
Yankee fans got trashed hard here after guarantee Ohtani signs with them. Same could happen to you. Don’t condemn your fan base to that…
He’s signing with Yanks after they get outbid for Corbin
butch779988
You haven’t a clue
3rdStrikeLooking
The answer is “No”. He is too stupid.
dave13
The exact thing you tell him not to do, you do in the exact same post
Dock_Elvis
Hey…Captain Smug is back…telling people how to feel and being condescending.
Vickers
Is this a real comment?
slider32
You either love them or hate them, Phillies have said they are spending stupid money this winter, Cashman will stick to his value. That’s how he turned the team around so quick. Most new GM’s know the value of players today, and will not overpay too much.
arc89
Nobody knows where Kikuchi will sign. He has not mentioned 1 team. Ohtani was supposed to sign with Mariners in the early rumors so its a guess where he signs.
Jean Matrac
Not sure why you get down-voted for posting nothing but irrefutable facts. I guess some people don’t like hearing the truth.
Jean Matrac
A down-vote, that’s too funny.
yukongold
Are you Big Dan?
GeoKaplan
1) It’s just “Los Angeles Angels”. Been that way officially for a couple of years.
2) This is a different scenario from Ohtani. All the teams got to make their pitch to him about why Team X would be the best fit. With Kikuchi, only one team will make the highest bid, and win the opportunity to negotiate with Scott Boras for a deal.
cookmeister 2
I thought that the rules changed and the max bid was $20 mil? If multiple teams put up the money, they all get to negotiate (anybody know if they is still the case?)
TeddyBallgameYazJimEd
That’s correct.. say 3 teams bid the max..$20M. Then the player decides who he wants to sign with.
MetsYankeesRedSox
Xabial must be sleeping
xabial
Sadly, I’m a sleep-deprived college student
flabbit
What school
Dodgethis
Why admit you’re a fool by pronouncing yourself as a student?
dhud
Being a college student means you’re a fool??
Interesting….
NotaGM
you are an idiot.
who cares of age???
current major league rosters looking for you like x
ABStract
I think Dodgethis is just proved himself to be a fool
Maybe try being a student of life and learn when to keep insane comments to oneself
JKB 2
Why would being a college student mean your a fool? You must not have an education yourself.
wiggysf
Dodgethis:
I’m in high school. Does that make me stupid? In all likelihood I read just as much about baseball as you do. There’s no way of being sure from the knowledge you have about me how smart I am and how realistic or valid my baseball opinions and trade proposals are.
MetsYankeesRedSox
Dodgethis
You are the ultimate moron.
CONGRATS!!!
Dock_Elvis
That’s it…it explains your complete lack of social engagement skill set.
driftcat28 2
Been there man, good luck to you!
juicemane
When did 15 credit hours deprive anyone of sleep??? Its all the other time you waste, like on here saying nonsense.
Houston We Have A Solution
15 credit hours? Dude that’s like 4 or 5 even 6 classes lol.
My god studying for finals for 4 5 6 classes and midterms youll get sleep deprived.
ABStract
Everyone’s a wimp nowadays, why all the hate for college students?
MetsYankeesRedSox
15 creds prob five classes
Good luck ….I dropped out of Rutgers
MetsYankeesRedSox
Finish it and it will be worth it.
Slevin
You just opened the flood gates!!
MetsYankeesRedSox
He sure did but screw them!
painterman360
Lol y’all wait for other comments….
jbigz12
The way I see it the brewers are just going to be taking that money they had allotted to Schoop and at the minimum are going to spending that on another 2b or I guess maybe a 3b if they wanna watch Shaw play 2nd again. I can’t see how they end up saving any of that money if they sign a replacement. Maybe a little less salary for this year if they sign a lemahieu but that’ll probably require at least a 2 year commitment.
steelerbravenation
The Brewers could fill a spot in their rotation give the Braves Domingo Santana and they give them Julio Teheran. Perfect match fits both teams needs. Make it happen.
Slevin
Did Teheran kick sand in your face or something?
RunDMC
You’ve proposed this on so many pages and still gets the same tepid response. Teheran has $11MM left not including a $1MM buyout that a team assumes. Santana is making about league minimum, so ATL would need to include either cash or prospects in a deal.
But, based on career numbers, Santana would be an upgrade offensively over Kakes, but not defensively, where he’d be below-average. I don’t think he’d be much of an upgrade altogether in Markakis – or enough to deal for him. Now, if he were a DH, that’d be a different story.
If you’re ATL, do you make that deal – seeing Santana as the worthy upgrade, mid-order bat in COF – or do you pay for 3-5 years of Brantley, Pollock, Cutch – or do you trade for someone else entirely? And, do you think MIL would want Teheran for this? Considering his issues with the HR and knowing they are looking at contending – I don’t think they take that chance, especially for a known trade chip in Santana. Like ATL, they are looking for an upgrade, not a risky pick-up with value.
Vanilla Good
If/when the Brewers do acquire a 2B this year, it’ll likely only be on a 1-year deal with Keston Hiura waiting in the wings. Of course if they package him for an ace then nevermind.
ReddVencher
I expect the Brewers to pick up Dietrich for fairly cheap to play 2B. They had interest in him at the deadline last season.
2id
Why they traded for Schoop rather than Dietrich is beyond me.
ReddVencher
Because they got Moustakas instead and were looking at someone who could play some SS.
biasisrelitive
Look at the 2b market lots of options and not tons of demand. There will be cheep options
baseball1600
Glad the Giants aren’t selling low on MadBum. Every time somebody brings up a trade purposal for him, they include sub-par prospects. You either pay a hefty package or you don’t. There’s no reason to sell-low on Bum. Might as well just ride it out until a team gets desperate enough to overpay.
xabial
Enjoy riding out that QO, when he signs with Yankees. Dude is on an expiring contract. Time is running out to be playing games.
Dock_Elvis
Yankees….right…mr cowboy there seems like a natural fit. It’s like you’re one of those magic 8 balls that has a select group of responses
justin-turner overdrive
Yeah, he’ll move from the NL in an extreme pitchers park division and move to the most hitter-friendly bandbox in MLB, along with a whole division of hitter-friendly parks, sounds like a nice sign by NYY. LOL sure, go get MadBum as a FA. LOL
MadBum should sign in SD after this, only place his declining stuff will play.
ABStract
I love all this “declining stuff” talk on bum, grasping at straws for anything bad to say about him
If he was a dodger he’d be your god, he’s the best post season pitcher in history for Zeus’ sake!
Even when injured the last two years he’s still had around a 3.2/3.3 era…stop being ridiculous
wiggysf
I think justin-turner overdrive is a pun and they’re actually an A’s fan.
larry48
bum has lost a lot of velocity was 93-95 in hay days, no sits in 88-91 and location is also worse. His great slider is now just an average or below average slider. Hes has not been great for 3-4 years.
Jean Matrac
Please cite your source for these numbers. You’re saying he had averaged 94, and now averages 89.5. A drop of 4.5 MPH?
The truth is Bum was never a fireballer. According to Fangraphs, his highest average velocity was 93.0 in 2015. Over his 6 seasons, 2010 through 2015, he averaged 92.5 on his fastball. Over the last 2 seasons he’s averaged 91.4. A drop of only 1.1 MPH. That’s quite a bit different that what you’ve posted.
jekporkins
I will bet you $100 he doesn’t sign with the Yankees. Bum would hate playing there, and as you can tell from the last contract he signed, money isn’t his sole focus. I got another $100 he never signs with Los Angeles either.
I like you, Xabial, you got heart for your team. But quit thinking every single good player in MLB is going to sign with the Yankees. It makes you sound like a spoiled brat.
johnnyringofwc
He has never even had a bad year. I agree.
Slevin
Soon to be joining Bryce Harper in Yankee Pinstripes…
RedRooster
“Certainly, the Giants have little need to dump Bumgarner if they aren’t getting something worthwhile in return.”
Sure they do. Other teams aren’t going to offer more at the deadline when they only get 2 months of him and can’t QO him.
Dodgethis
Wrong and wrong. The only reason a team trades for him is for the postseason. He gets more valuable the closer the deadline gets. A team who feels this is their year, should do everything they can to get the one guy who dominates in the postseason. Critical thinking is your friend.
jbigz12
It’s not always the case. If a team has apprehension about trading for him now because his numbers have been trending downward the last 2 years it’s plausible they could get more for him in June or July if he comes back to mad bum of old form. If the offers are good now then obviously you take a look but they could plausibly get better with a guy like that. Same argument can be made for it to go the other way but there’s a risk/reward component to holding on a little longer that could be worth it.
RedRooster
No if they wait to trade him the other team can’t QO him
johnnyz123
Greg Bird and Sonny Gray for MadBum.
xabial
Nothing is good enough for loyal MadBum Giant fans.
I’ve seen some say no to packages with Florial. You really think Giants can do better than Florial?
Dock_Elvis
I think the Reds can hammer down a pretty good deal for almost any one.
pustule bosey
that is a pretty worthless get for sf.
jbigz12
How is Florial a worthless get for SF?? Mad bum has one year left and I’m going to let you in on a secret, the giants aren’t winning the WS next year.
atuck_sfg
But a team getting MadBum gets one of the best and most proven postseason pitchers in baseball history, one would think that’s pretty valuable. Theoretically would you rather have MadBum or someone else starting or even relieving game 7 of the World Series?
PhanaticDuck26
he was prob talking about the Bird & Gray idea above…
xabial
would like to hear him say that…
restingmitchface
All due respect, it ain’t 2014 anymore. I could probably name 50 guys off the top of my head.
Mishimacool
Ok. We will wait. Proceed…
ffrhb14Sox
Bird has failed to take hold of an open 1B for what 3 years now. Gray has already been said to be trash on the way out of NY. Thats a pretty worthless get for SF. They’d be better off taking chances on a few midlevel prospects that they would have more control over.
pustule bosey
no, i meant bird and gray being worthless. bird doesn’t really have a place so you are essentially swapping madbum for gray
justin-turner overdrive
Bird is horrible at baseball and has ZERO trade value. He should be DFA’d so you idiots will shut up about including him in ALL of your terrible and wildly lopsided trade proposals.
Saying you hate Gray and want him gone murdered his trade value too. You will be lucky to get an 18 year old lottery pick for him.
billneftleberg
He’s not the same pitcher he was then however.don’t you think The Giants would sign him themselves if they thought he was that same pitcher who won them 3 world series? Of course they would. But they know he’s aged and isn’t that guy any more.So wake up and give your head a shake. This isn’t 2012 Dorothy,and it certainly isn’t Kansas
lasershow45
Panda was also a most proven post season player….
MadBum got hurt and has thrown an absolute ton of innings over the years. Teams may or may not look at him as a ticking timebomb.
thegreatcerealfamine
How did a bunch of posters on the internet murder Gray’s trade value?
mrnatewalter
They didn’t.
Brian Cashman ruined his value.
lasershow45
I’ll take Eovaldi right now. Or Max. Or Price. Or Verlander… Because they were great in 2018. Madbum is mortal in the playoffs and if I thought of it longer I could come up with a longer list
Markdashark
Heck yeah they would sign him to a 1 year 12 million dollar contract Dorothy.
Jean Matrac
Verlander also aged, also got hurt and performed badly as a result, and also threw a ton of innings. He also finished 2nd in the CY voting at age 36 this year. Passing judgement that Bum, who has a similar body type as Verlander, is done, may be premature.
jbigz12
Yeah you’re right.
Central Valley
What would teams trade for Clayton Kershaw? Serious question.
Why is every team talking down on Madison Bumgarner like he’s some injury prone pitcher? He’s not. He’s still only 29, makes little money comparitively, and is still one of the top left handed aces in MLB. I have a gut feeling that Bumgarner will pitch great next year, and teams will be offering packages of their top tier prospects for him. He’s still the player I want pitching in a must win game. Kershaw is not. Paxton is not, insert just about any other pitcher in baseball. Bumgarner is still a beast and will be back healthy and at full strength next year.
LADreamin
Your method of thought is what got all those teams in hot water with aging rosters 10 years ago. Madbum’s peripherals are way down for the past couple years. His velocity and K% trending down. He’s in clear decline. Is he still a good pitcher? Comparatively yes, but how much are you going to give up for a pitcher in decline? He’ll get moved at the deadline for a modest package. Better if he regains his stuff.
Jean Matrac
Verlander was in clear decline as well. From 2009 to 2014 he lost 3 MPH on his FB. Since then he’s slowly increased his velocity each year so that he’s added 2.1 MPH. Verlander’s K/9 went from 10.9 in 2009 to 6.5 in 2014. It was 12.2 last season. His WAR was 7.7 in 2009 and it dropped to 2.9 in 2014. It was 6.8 in 2018.
A lot of Verlander’s issues were injury related just like Bumgarners. I can understand if teams don’t want to gamble that Bum can comeback like Verlander, but by the same token, if I’m the Giants i’m not letting him go cheap. Verlander shows that decline is not inevitable.
ffrhb14Sox
Didnt Gray do that himself as a Yankee?
LADreamin
Verlander is the exception, not the rule. He did what many others have tried, and it worked out for him. Bumgarner has to do the same thing, but it’s not so easy. The good news is that he’s only 29, but there’s a lot of miles on that arm already. I don’t think the Giants get market value for him unless he posts top of the rotation numbers at the beginning of the 2019 season. There’s no way. I think he stays put in SF, making all this trade chatter superfluous.
Jean Matrac
Verlander also had a ton of innings under his belt, more than Bumgarner BTW. Over 10 years Bum has thrown 1,638 1/3 innings. Over Verlanders first 10 seasons he threw 1,978, almost 34 innings per season more. Verlander was 32 when he began his return to excellence. Bum is 29.
Both Bum and Verlander are big and strong, and both had numbers decline due to injury. All I’m saying is since Verlander has come back, and given the nature of Bum’s injuries, there’s a chance he can too.
And that is why the Giants are not going to let him go cheaply. The payoff, if he does bounce back. is too good to do that. And if Bum pitches well, and the Giants are out of it, the return will be higher at the deadline. A productive Bumgarner could be the difference in winning the WS or not. Teams will pay for that.
Melchez
Bird and Gray for MadBum? Jacoby Jones and Matt Hall for MadBum. There, I can play this game too. Shane Greene for Aaron Judge?
johnnyringofwc
Yankees could keep Sonny as a long guy in the pen who pitches on the road or at short spurts at Yankee Stadium. They could still flip him at the deadline if they don’t get offers to their liking this off-season.
Dock_Elvis
9M long reliever? Not building trade value at the same time?
driftcat28 2
No thank you. Gray needs to go away
justin-turner overdrive
Then stop acting like he has trade value and DFA or nontender him.
ilovelamp
Can someone explain the new posting system to me? Does Yusei get to pick where he plays, and then they just pay his current team? Is the only difference between his situation and Shohei’s that he’s old enough to not fall under the international free agent rules?
Cat Mando
For Major League contracts with a total guaranteed value of $25 million or less, the release fee will be 20% of the total guaranteed value of the contract;
For Major League contracts with a total guaranteed value between $25,000,001 and $50 million, the release fee will be: (i) 20% of the first $25 million of the guaranteed total (i.e. $5 million) plus (ii) 17.5% of the total guaranteed value exceeding $25 million;
For Major League contracts with a total guaranteed value of $50,000,001 or more, the release fee will be: (i) 20% of the first $25 million of the guaranteed total (i.e. $5 million) plus (ii) 17.5% of the total guaranteed value between $25,000,001 and $50 million (i.e. $4,375,000) plus (iii) 15% of the total guaranteed value exceeding $50 million
For Major League contracts that contain bonus, salary escalators or options (Club, mutual or vesting), the Club may owe a supplemental release fee at a later date equal to 15% of any bonuses or salary escalators actually earned by the player under his contract, and/or 15% of any compensation paid to the player in Club, mutual or vesting option years that were exercised or vested;
For Minor League contracts, the release fee will be a flat 25% of the signing bonus. (For Minor League contracts of “Foreign Professionals” that contain Major League terms, a supplemental release fee will be owed if the player is added to the 25-man roster.)
mlbtraderumors.com/2017/12/mlb-ratifies-new-npb-po…
steelerbravenation
AA came out and said his top priority is a TOR SP. with the money spent on Donaldson/McCann already they don’t have the money to sign anybody like Corbin or trade for Greinke & his contract. So I believe that leaves Kluber/Carrasco/Bauer who I don’t feel the Braves have the positional needs the Indians would need. Or MadBum who I feel is the best fit at this point. When the winter meetings come I would not be surprised to see a deal happen. His cost should be reason alone to overpay a bit and if AA gets him before the season starts it’s getting a draft pick along with him with the ability to offer the qualifying offer.
Maybe get Sil Smith with him in a package to kill 2 birds with 1 stone for the Braves.
Bryce Wilson
Max Fried
Austin Riley
Tristan Beck
Travis Demmeritte
For MadBum & Wil Smith
CT
Braves overpay. No way Riley is wasted on a 1 year rental and a decent but not great reliever.
RunDMC
Deal away valuable parts of our future for MadBum and the Curse of the 4-Wheeler? FWIW, dealing away Tristan Beck and 2018 Draft would just about be a waste – COF Greyson Jenista notwithstanding.
I’d say that might even be an overpay for one of CLE’s pitchers – who I value a lot more than 1 year of MadBum.
justin-turner overdrive
AA is trash and right behind DiPoto as the most overrated GM in the game. I beg of Braves fans, please do not homer for that loser like Jays fans did. You should be scared of him blowing it for your very talented team.
its_happening
AA is overrated. But if he blows the Atlanta situation it will be a disaster. He backed into one of the greatest situations.
CT
AA has had plenty of opportunities to blower up the Braves very good farm system, but hasn’t done anything drastic yet. The Braves have a chance to be long-term power in the NL under AA. I hope his time with the Dodgers has helped him learn from mistakes he made previously.
adshadbolt
Why does everyone hate on AA so much he’s a very good executive, he built up the team in Toronto to get close and they had a good Fran system so he used it to take a shot and they got into the playoffs and it just didn’t work out they ran into CLE and couldn’t get it done as a Toronto fan would you have rather had that post season or some kids who if you look st most of the prospects he’s traded only about 3 have worked out, none of the prospects in the tulo deal have done anything the headliner Hoffman is on the verge of being dfa’d, only Barreto from the Donaldson trade is still with the A’s and there are still major questions on his ability in the big leagues, Norris and Boyd have been good for the tigers but would wouldn’t consider them high impact players, if your mad about the RA Dickey deal, darnau’d hasn’t done anything that would have helped the jays, yes syndergard hurts but no one knew he was going to be that good look at all the evaluations and reports on him at the time, there were several teams who were willing to pay for Dickey so they had to give value to get value. And if your a braves fan that hates him are u mad because he won’t go trade all your prospects for 30 year old declining players or are you mad because he won’t go sign machado or Harper because most of those decisions aren’t made by him the braves are owned by a company not a singular owner, AA can’t milk or convince the company like he could an owner to give him all this money to go sign big free agents. That’s the owners decision not his. I really don’t see why all these people on here hate the guy so much is he the greatest gm no but is he a bad one no not by any means I can think of 20 worse gms
its_happening
Plenty of reasons to explain why AA is overrated. It started when he was compared to Pat Gillick days after being hired. From there he had his ups and downs. Being overrated doesn’t mean he’s a bad GM.
gino 2
The Nationals should do themselves a big favour and sign Dallas K. Then trade for Corey K from the Indians. Then they should do the unthinkable and trade Scherzer to the Yankees. Get G. Torres to play 2nd bass, D. Bettence, C. Fraizer and another prospect or two for Scherzer.
Then once that deal is made sign Corbin too.
Then trade for Greinke and Goldsmyth from Arizona including Zimmerman and Roark in the deal.
Then find a taker for Stratsberg. I am sure he would fetch a great return as well. The pitching might not be as strong as it would be with Scherzer and Strats but, the team would improve as would its prospects.
They would still need another pitcher or two but, they may get one in the Strats deal and another deal could then be made too. Go into the season with 5 new hired guns!
Radical changes but, it’s time they win the division and advance to the World Series.
Greinke
P. Corbin
Corey K
Dallas K
??????, Joe Ross
Would make a nice starting lineup too.
Loosing Scherzer would be a huge blow but, the amount of prospects gained would benefit the Nats in the long run!!!
Get R Done Rizzo!!
yonkers22
Wait…you’re serious?
yanks02026
LOL.. Yankees aren’t giving up Torres for Mad Max
Markdashark
Well his post was rediculous, but yes they probably would give up Torres in a second for scherzer
Melchez
His reply was just as silly. Who wouldn’t trade Torres for Scherzer? Well, besides a loony Yankee fan. They would instead trade Wade for Scherzer and ask the Nationals to pay both contracts.
Markdashark
Nah I think for Torres the Yankees would require the nationals to resign Harper for 400+ million, trade him for Torres and absorb the entire Harper contract because god ordained him to be a yankee. They may have to add scherzer as a throw in as well
yanks02026
Actually the loony people are you.. Mad Max is the best pitcher in the game but the Yankees aren’t gonna giving up a player who is only 21 and has a upside of being a superstar…
Also pretty sure the Yankees wouldn’t want to pay Scherzer 42 million per year thru 2021
Markdashark
Once again if you don’t understand that the Yankees would absolutely give up Torres for scherzer then you are already beyond help… I don’t have the time or patience to explain common knowledge to you… good day
thegreatcerealfamine
Please don’t lump this guy in with all Yankees fans. If the Nats were crazy enough to do a Max/Torres trade one for one Cashman would, and should jump on it in a heartbeat.
jdgoat
Stop Yanks. You’re only digging more of a hole
billneftleberg
Actually no they wouldn’t Madashark.there’s this little thing called a salary threshold where Scherzer would cost them upwards of 60 million a year by the end of his contract. And its not leciThin couldn’t be signed for a fraction of what Washington owed Scherzer. Educate yourself
Slevin
Who gave this nut any love?
Slevin
What are you babbling about? None of that is true…
yanks02026
No I’m not at all. You’re absolutely crazy to give up a 21 year old for a mid 30s pitcher no matter how good he is.
yanks02026
@cereal,
So you’d give up a young possibly superstar with 6 years of control for a mid 30s pitcher making over 40 million a year.
Phil T
You don’t trade your 20 something all-star 2nd baseman for the next 15 years for ANY pitcher. Max has got 3 good years left before his arm gets tired from all those innings and he becomes hittable.
larry48
maybe less, Max go lite up in several of his games in 2018. When he was good he was really good but when not he got hit hard.
slider32
Yanks could land Corbin and another starter and go with a 6 man rotation, most teams don’t use 5 starters for the season anymore even when they try to do it.
Begamin
Right? What im hoping for is Corbin and Kikuchi. Always wanted the Yankees to get Tanaka a buddy. That way he can try to mentor the guy and ease his transition from from Japan to the States, from tips on everyday life differences to baseball.
But, I wouldnt be shaking my head at a trade for Kluber that still lets you keep Andujar.
Markdashark
I keep reading people on here fantasizing about their team getting Madison bumgarner for cheap..
I think people are far underestimating his value…
First of all if I am a playoff team like the astros, Yankees, etc. and I had the choice to acquire 1 year of madbum or James Paxton, I land Bumgarner all day and tomorrow. I don’t want to turn that into a huge debate, the reasoning should be obvious. Madbum has proven to be one of the top starters I the game and even better in the post season, he has had two years in which he has had injuries. Still posting a very respectable 3.26 era in the 120 innings he did manage to pitch last season. He is only 29 and as far as we know, ready to start next season healthy. He could be a huge asset to a World Series winning team if traded to a team like Houston or the Yankees.
I would estimate his value would be much more than just a florial.
thegreatcerealfamine
Paxton has more than one year of control…
Markdashark
I am well aware of that thank you. He also has no postseason resume versus madbum being mr.october lol, he also has never pitched more than 160 innings. He also has had an era above 3.50, 3 out of the last 4 seasons.
lasershow45
You don’t get to bestow Reggie Jackson’s nickname on Madison. That’s insane. Get out of here with that nonsense. Give him an original name. Like Madbum. He’ll never be Mr. October.
Signed,
A Red Sox fan.
ABStract
I didn’t realize you were the bestower and keeper of nicknames…
If anyone has earned the name Mr October since Reggie, it’s Madbum.
Does Reggie have the highest batting average in WS history? Cuz Madbum has the lowest ERA and as a pitcher, effects the game far more than a batter.
Did Reggie play on short rest to win a WS? Did he play out of position? No?
Oh, he just had a good rep 30+ years prior to Bums unimaginable dominance?
World war 1 was called “the Great War” until a greater one came along…
Markdashark
Let me just give everyone a little clue here…
Last 5 seasons….
Pitcher 1 – 29 yrs old
Era. Innings
2.98. 217
2.93. 218
2.74. 226
3.32. 111
3.26. 130
Career era 3.03
Career postseason – 2.11 era 102 innings
Pitcher #2 30 years old
Era. Innings
3.04. 74
3.90. 67
3.79. 121
2.98. 136
3.76. 160
Career era 3.42
No postseason exp.
Pitcher 1 has one year remaining
Pitcher 2 has two years
I am probably a World Series contender next season, who am I taking???
flippinbats79
Have these ERAs been league adjusted? Because once you do you’ll probably find they are about the same.
Markdashark
Really because with inter league play, I don’t see much reason for league adjustment anymore. Also
If you adjust for ballpark Paxton is way worse. When he is not pitching in Seattle, he is not even really an average pitcher.
CT
I’m taking the guy who showed in 2017 and 2018 that he can dominate a game with double-digit strikeouts, Paxton.
Markdashark
Oh good choice…
Strike outs are great dude lmao
Markdashark
You tell me era is a bad way to measure a pitchers value and then you imply strike outs are a good way to measure a pitchers value lmao. Strike outs provide absolutely 0 value. A pitcher who pitches 9 innings and gives up 1 run with 0 strike outs is much much more valuable than a pitcher who goes 9 gives up 4 runs with 18 strike outs
Cashford64
Agreed. Bumgarner is going to be for a team that is set to go all the way specifically in 2019. He has a proven track record, exceptional postseason experience, and his contract will break nobody’s bank.
Is there a risk? Of course, but isn’t that true to some degree with any player? Who knew Sonny Gray would be such a disaster for the Yankees? Who knew Verlander would go from good to completely unstoppable for the Astros?
Anyone, people need to stop acting like players aren’t traded every single deadline as 3-month rentals. If you want the pieces to put you over the top, you are going to have to pay for them. That’s it. Bottom line, Bumgarner shouldn’t be given away cheap.
Markdashark
Paxton’s era away from the friendly confines of Seattle is 3.87 on the career.
JoshHosh
This comment makes no sense. Which league you are in ABSOLUTELY matters. There is not really more interleague play than before it is just spread out throughout the year as opposed to in one clump in May and June like it used to be. A starting pitcher likely only has a few interleague starts per year.
lasershow45
Verlander was stopped in the ALCS.
Cashford64
Yeah, he was finally stopped a year and a half later, by the eventual WS champs. Whatever team gets Bumgarner won’t have him for that long, they’ll only need him to get them to the playoffs and then the world series THAT season.
CT
With the skill level of current MLB hitters, pitching to contact is a terrible plan. If a pitcher can’t strike out hitters, that means more balls put in play and more potential for hard contact.
Strikeouts aren’t everything and that’s certainly not the only thing I care about. Between Bumgarner and Paxton, I’ll take the guy that has the greater potential to limit baserunners at this point in his career. That’s James Paxton.
Markdashark
Really so sacrificing pitch placement for strike outs is a good thing?
Paxton gave up 23 bombs in 160 innings last year. Clap clap clap
ffrhb14Sox
Most hitters today cant even beat a shift, have very little skill for situational hitting, cant bunt and even without a pitcher trying for strikeouts will still strikeout. Hitting tiday is too much about the longball and not better than in the past.
CT
ERA is a misleading way to assess a pitcher’s value. Teheran for the Braves posted a 3.94ERA, but was terrible in 2018.
Bumgarner has seen his velocity and strikeouts decline each of the last two years. Decline in velocity and more balls in play is not a good recipe for success. Maybe it has something to do with the injuries, maybe he’s starting to wear down decline. No one is overpaying for past years, when recent numbers throw up red flags.
Markdashark
Era is not a perfect measurement, but all around and in general it is still probably one of the best for giving a general idea of the pitchers performance, as well as war.
And yes Tehran’s era was almost 4 and yes that is not very good…
RunDMC
2018: Julio Teheran’s FIP was 4.83.
FIP isn’t the best indicator either, but speaks a lot more to Teheran’s effectiveness (or lackthereof) than not. He’s about been a pitcher that’s consistently outperformed FIP – at least some have said – as evidenced by his ERA that you’d expect to be higher than it actually was. partially because a spike in BB/9 and downturn in SO/9 (less control and less Ks).
larry48
Tehran’s era was not helped by poor defense by Atlanta infield and outfield. League average or below average
joepanikatthedisco
Dan Jennings consistently outperforms his FIP too. Probably why the Brewers cut him
CT
Not sure what you’re talking about with the Braves defense. The Braves infield was one of the top defenses in all of MLB. Outfield defense wasn’t as good, but still solid overall. Teheran’s problem is there isn’t a strong defense for balls hit over fence.
RunDMC
I guess the league averages 3 Gold Gloves in their lineup or better.
Central Valley
Exactly. Even after 2018, I’d put MdBum on the mound over just about anyone in MLB in a playoff game.
walls17
I’d like to see kikuchi end up in San Diego.
Drew Waters Bat
On a side note what do you think it would take to get pudges son from sf?
ABStract
With as few good prospects as the Giants have right now, I’d say more than you’d expect
He’s the future at this point
wiggysf
Giants are going to place a huge amount of value on Dereck Rodruigez. He’s good. He has 6 years of control. If someone for some reason hired me to be the general manager of the Giants right now, DRod would be one of the team’s only untouchable major leaguers.
justin-turner overdrive
Greg Bird and Sonny Gray would be NTC candidates if they were on any other team.
You are never, ever, EVER trading them for a postseason clutch performer like MadBum.
It’s Florial, Abreu and Adams for Bumgarner or GTFO.
(FYI all Yankees prospects except Florial are wildly overrated FYI)
Lefty Grove’s right hand
I wish the A’s got Florial instead of Fowler or Mateo. I wasn’t too happy with that Gray trade.
Markdashark
Well you should be because gray turned out to be complete garbage lol
JoshHosh
Gray isn’t garbage, he just can’t pitch in Yankee Stadium. Look at the splits.
Lefty Grove’s right hand
Yeah he’s not garbage. The Yankees was a terrible fit for him. I think he just crumpled under the huge pressure and expectations. And pitching in one of the best hitter friendly stadiums did not help.
driftcat28 2
I wonder what sort of “larger deal” Cashman has discussed that includes Gray. It’d be interesting to see him packaged with a few prospects to return a stud SP or reliever
Old User Name
He had been discussed in the Paxton deal.
strostro
No
Markdashark
Also yankee fans, can someone please enlighten me about Florial?
I see good scouting reports, high ceiling, possible 5 tool player. Etc etc..
Now weren’t similar things said about players like Moncada, Rusney Castillo, Mateo??
I mean you never know with these types right? And Florial just finished his what 3rd year in the Yankees organization and he is still in A ball, right. He isn’t even producing numbers at that level that inspire a second look yet. He was finally promoted to high A last year and hit .260 and has had absolutely no homerun power yet and doesn’t appear to be an incredible base stealing threat. At like 20 years old Rafael devers, Xander bogaerts, gleyber Torres were major league ready and had great success in the upper minor leagues. This kid is 20 and is stuck in A ball for 3 years with no success and nothing to his name but potential because of his athleticism.
Why is this guy so good?
mrnatewalter
I’m curious what the Yankees can actually get for Sonny Gray.
If I’m a GM, I’m more inclined to sign someone like Anibal Sanchez (who was better than Gray on all accounts last year) for a cheaper contract AND I don’t have to give up any talent for him.
Honestly, if you’re the Yankees, pick some 27/28 year old reliever in AAA ball with okay upside and take him for Gray.
Here’s a random example:
SF gets Sonny Gray
NYY gets Ray Black
And, frankly, I think the Giants are giving up too much.
billneftleberg
Say black who throws hard but can’t make the sad sack giants with the worst farm system in baseball now that Seattle has refilled the cupboard? Are you serious? Farhan has his work cut out for him I appears Giants fans have collectively lost their minds
mrnatewalter
Yeah, the Giants might say no to moving a 28-year-old flame throwing reliever for 1-year of Sonny Gray who’s owed more than a dozen SPs who are better than him in FA.
Gray’s value, after you combine his contract situation, his performance, and Cashman’s comments, is one of the worst in the game for controllable players right now.
There’s literally zero reason to think the Yankees can get much value for him.
mrnatewalter
WHO do you think the Yankees are going to get for Sonny Gray? If you think it’s anything remotely valuable, perhaps it is you that’s lost your mind.
billneftleberg
A couple of prospects for gray. No more no less. But that’s more than the Giants system has. Sorry but until Madbum shows he can be the madbum of old. If rather have Gray (out of Yankee stadium like maybe Oakland or petco. even pittsburgh. Considering what the Giants will be this year madbum would need pitch like Degrom to have a .500 season this year and he ain’t that guy anymore. OR THE GIANTS WOULD SIGN HIM
Jean Matrac
Wrong. The Giant’s farm system is ranked low, 24th I think, not because they don’t have any prospects, but because they lack depth.
The very fact that you would take Gray over Bum calls into question your baseball acumen. Over Gray’s seasons in Oakland, and his first in NY when he actually pitched well there, he compiled a 115 ERA+. Over the last 2 seasons, while dealing with/coming back from injuries, Bum posted a 123 ERA+. Considering that Bum is only about 3 months older than Gray, only a fool would pick Gray over Bum.
billneftleberg
Actually no they wouldn’t Madashark.there’s this little thing called a salary threshold where Scherzer would cost them upwards of 60 million a year by the end of his contract. And its not as if corbin couldn’t be signed for a fraction of what Washington owed Scherzer. Educate yourself
brandons-3
I feel Corbin entered this offseason likely expecting to be a Yankee, but will wind up a Phillie after they offer him “stupid” money.
billneftleberg
And as good as Madbum was he’s not the same pitcher. Buy a calendar why don’t you?.The Giants are going to be a last place team for 3-5 years so why waste Madbum
Cashford64
Not the same pitcher? All you can say is that he’s missed time. When he’s pitched, he’s still been very good. Where are people getting that he’s all of a sudden horrible at age 29?
And no, the Padres will still be the last place team. They have yet to prove they know what they’re doing, even with all their supposed excellent prospects.
billneftleberg
He’s not horrible but he wasn’t madbum of old either and it’s not just one year it’s been two. He needs to prove he can stay healthy first
billneftleberg
Maybe if they don’t trade for Syndergaard as expected. But I see Farhan cleaning house.I See the Giants and Seattle as the 2 worst teams in baseball next year.but at least Seattle has a number of great prospects now….The giants not so much
wiggysf
Seattle has one prospect in the top 100 (Sheffield). Giants have two (Bart, Ramos). As a giants fan, the best I can realistically hope for is that the braves trade one of their many top 100 pitching prospects straight up for Bumgarner. That might be an overpay by Atlanta, but I hope it happens.
billneftleberg
Sorry the Mariners with the Cano trade have 3. And Kelenic is better than any giant prospect by far
jbigz12
Neftleberg you are quickly establishing yourself as a fool. I’m an orioles fan and there’s no possible way you could say the giants or mariners are a worse team than what we are putting on the field next season. There’s little to no shot that orioles or royals aren’t the worst team in baseball. The marlins are horrible as well. Those teams are easily worse than the giants or mariners. Honestly I see the mariners being better than a lot of those teams and I don’t even think they finish in the basement of ALW. Texas has no pitching, even with Seattle’s trades they have more of a rotation.
billneftleberg
Jbigz the Orioles. Who are they? Do they still exist. The Orioles have been mismanaged for years so I really don’t count them as a major league team, not even Orioles fans see them as major league quality
They are A laughing stock 62 Mets level bad maybe it’s hyperbole but they are not a major league team
larry48
Padres will be worse than Giants, and Arizona may really be bad if they trade Greinke and Goldschmidt.
Cashford64
It’s not been his “health.” It’s been two freak accidents, one with a motorbike and one when a ball hit his pitching hand. There’s been nothing to suggest his body is wearing down.
billneftleberg
Then why has his peripherals declined too answer me that?
billneftleberg
A couple of prospects for gray. No more no less. But that’s more than the Giants system has. Sorry but until Madbum shows he can be the madbum of old. Id rather have Gray (out of Yankee stadium like maybe Oakland or petco. even pittsburgh. Considering what the Giants will be this year madbum would need pitch like Degrom to have a .500 season this year and he ain’t that guy anymore. OR THE GIANTS WOULD SIGN HIM
The fact that they haven’t or won’t after all he did for them speaks volumes
Central Valley
Are you really comparing Gray to Madison Bumgarner? Are you out of your mind? There is not a single pitcher on the Yankees pitching staff that has the “big game mettle” that Bumgarner has.
If Bumgarner was on the mound for the Yankees last year, they would have won their Wild Card game.
petefrompp
I’m biased because I’m a Giants fan- but anyone down on Bumgarner is really wrong on this one. Two freak accidents have caused a more top 30 pitcher in the league- but the local info- bum has said he didnt recover his grip strength last year after the broken hand. Said he will address it in the offseason – probably by clearing a forest and moving a couple of mountains.
Dude is a stud- 29, 6-5 250lbs- and he is not soft at all. Plus he actually knows how to pitch. If the Giants dont get what they want in the offseason, someone will give up the bank by trade deadline when he comes roaring back.
And to say the post season heroics don’t matter in analytics is missing the point- the guy is a readXXs and a huge competitor – he doesn’t have an once of fear or doubt – thats why he is special- he has the physical gifts, is pitching savvy, and has the drive to dominate- a fairly rare combo.
JKB 2
Good points. However him saying he has not gotten his grip back is a bit of a concern until he shows otherwise.
Central Valley
Probably the most accurate comment I’ve read. I completely agree. Bumgarner will rebound to full strength after this offseason.
billneftleberg
Petefrompp the problem there is, even if you’re right. The Giants will likely be the worst team in baseball next year so Madbum won’t put up numbers and being a free agent to be won’t get all that much.
Even Degrom was only 10-9
Jean Matrac
Bumgarner’s hand was broken when he got hit in his last ST start. He made his first start on June 5th. It is not surprising at all that his hand strength was diminished from the time his hand was in a cast, and the short recovery/rehab time. So it’s really not expecting much to think, after an off-season of conditioning, that he’ll show up in ST at full strength.
Bruin1012
You do realize win-loss record is a horrible way to predict value. If Madbum rebounds and his peripherals say he has rebounded he will get plenty of money. His win-Loss record will be completely immaterial.
billneftleberg
youre right it is a horrible way to assess value bruin but your leaving out some very important factors
one) if you trade for madbum you are getting him for one season and then youre going to need to pay him for all he did for the giants, he will expect that and deserve it and the acquiring team is looking for Value not to pay for what he did for the giants
and the Giants wont trade him for peanuts. its that double whammy that GMs steer clear of.
if you were a gm of another team wouldnt you rather wait and pay rental prices on a guy with a poor record (even if its through no fault of his own) and decide for yourself whether to sign him later?
the giants are only considering trading him because they dont want to pay him the contract hes earned, cashman looked and said I love the pitcher but said I dont want that double whammy . so why would another gm
as i said if the giants are gonna give him away cheap like The Yankees are doing with Gray then hell yeah count me in. but the giants arent doing that, they want full value plus
billneftleberg
Learn to read I was answering his question. I said Gray was worth a couple of prospects you dolt. Then i answered his question about madbum. Those are two different things
No wonder you giant fans think Madbum now is worth so much. You can’t read period let alone understand a calender. You are the worst team in baseball and have a barren farm system and some of you are illiterate.
And the Yankees did win their Wildcard game ther by demonstrating you are indeed illiterate or you have been living in a cave.
Poor Farhan Zahaidi
Central Valley
petefrompp: excellent analysis on Bumgarner.
Jean Matrac
“… until Madbum shows he can be the madbum of old. Id rather have Gray…”
Your words. Plus, calling someone a dolt is classic pot and kettle.
Verlander and Bumgarner are very similar in stature. Both are capable of, and have thrown a lot of innings. Verlander lost velocity, his K’s were trending down, and he was thought to be in decline. Now at 36 he’s added velocity, Ks are up, his WAR was 6.8 and he finished 2nd in the AL CY voting in 2018.
The Giants know Bum and his physical condition better than anyone. If no team wants to gamble on his future potential, a la Verlander, they are perfectly content holding on to him for now.
Verlander offers a model of a potential Bumgarner bounce back. If he he does your pronouncements of Bumgarner’s demise will expose your true depth of knowledge about baseball.
BTW it’s Zaidi, not “Zahaidi”.
billneftleberg
Tad read it again. I said I’d rather have Gray outside of Yankee stadium. On the road Gray was fine. Madbum is going to want a huge deal and deservedly so, for all he’s done for the Giants but he’s not that pitcher anymore so yes if I’m another team looking for a pitcher in trade I take Gray all day long.
They Yankees are giving Gray away. The Giants want a ransom for madbum. You do the math.
Bruin1012
As good as Madbum has been he was never as good as Verlander and he never had the Velocity of Verlander I’m not sure Verlander is a good comp for anybody. I do believe that Madbum can bounce back but don’t expect Verlander bounce back numbers.
Jean Matrac
I don’t need to read it again,. I got it the first time. Maybe you should re-read my post. To reiterate you’re a fool to take Gray over Bum. Stats show that even away from Yankee Stadium that Bumgarner is the superior pitcher. And that’s comparing Gray’s best years to Bumgarner’s worst. Plus Bum is only 3 months older I would guess you were in the extreme minority of baseball fans that would take Gray, even away from Yankee Stadium, over Bum. And I guarantee no team in baseball would do that.
We don’t know if they are giving Gray away. That’s your assumption, and it’s a big one.
You’re undervaluing what a season of Bumgarner is worth. It could mean winning the division or even the WS.
Jean Matrac
“…Madbum…was never as good as Verlander…”
Your reading comprehension is poor. I never said Bumgarner was as good as Verlander. A comparison of the two is irrelevant. Since you obviously missed the point I’ll explain it to you.
Verlander appeared to be in decline. His velocity, K rates, and other stats were down primarily because of injury. He has regained velocity, increased his strikeouts, and his WAR this season was close to the highest he’s ever had.
People are saying Bumgarner’s value is down because his velocity. K rates, and peripherals are in decline. But Bum has been injured in the last two seasons. If it’s possible that Verlander can return to his previous excellence, then it’s also possible for Bumgarner to return to his. Their numbers relative to each other has nothing to do with it.
billneftleberg
Central valley the idiot who said if the Yankees had madbum they would have won the Wildcard game last year.
Your opinion isn’t worth much central Valley
At least not until you do some research.
Central Valley
The idiot? You get triggered too easily. Get some counseling brother.
Okay, not the WILD CARD GAME, they lost because the Yankees do not have a big game pitcher like Bumgarner. My point is still the same.
Central Valley
Maybe you comparing Gray to Madison Bumgarner is the one who needs to spend the weekend doing reasearch.
Verlander was supposedly too injured and “lost his stuff” too. How did that work out for the Astros? Madison Bumgarner may go to Houston as well come the trade deadline. Who are the Yankees going to put in the mound? Good luck
billneftleberg
let me spell it out for you then.central valley. I love Madbum, he was a stud. and he deserverve thaat rich contract that the Giants OWE HIM for all hes done. but no the Giants are trying to trade him for a kings ransom instead of giving him what hes earned.
so yes. if im the GM of another team and I can have Gray for pennies on the dollar since away from yankee Stadium he reverts to what he was.OR pay the Giants a kings ransom. and then have to give a declining Madbum the money he richly deserves but got screwed out of. I trade for Gray all day long
GMS arent santa claus they want the best deal for their franchise. and Sonny Gray at 20 cents on the dollar is a better bargain than giving the Giants a ransom in trade and THEN having to pay Madbum the contract the Giants Owed him
and if im Madbum I scream very loudly if I dont get it
dust44
Domingo Acevedo, Sonny Gray and a lottery ticket prospect for Bumgarner. After they sign Corbin. Push CC to the 6th man/long relief and maybe even extend the big mans career a few years.
IjustloveBaseball
Because of his past shoulder issues, Kikuchi could be a candidate for a Kenta Maeda-esque deal. Somewhat lesser guaranteed money, but loads of incentives. I do think he will get more guaranteed annually than Maeda’s 3.125m/year though.
national pastime
Yankees haven’t had success with NL free agent pitchers I hope Corbin goes to the Phillies. I’d rather deal for Bauer.
Fire Jon Daniels
If the Yankees are just giving Gray away I hope the rangers take a flyer