As the MLBTR team put together this year’s ranking of the top fifty free agents, it became clear that there were a few bunchings of multiple players in similar market positions. That’s apparent most obviously at the top, where Bryce Harper and Manny Machado are both trying to push the bounds of what a 26-year-old star can earn (albeit at different positions), and in the sub-elite tier of the relief market, where there are a variety of very good pitchers who possess at least one or two obvious limitations on value.
It may be, though, that the tightest race between any two players — at least, in terms of ink spilled in relation to the level of contract we were debating — was between Andrew McCutchen and Michael Brantley. Proof? Tim Dierkes wrote Steve Adams and me an email on October 25th entitled, “Brantley vs Cutch revisited.”
In such situations, at some point, you’re forced to pick between the players — unless you take the easy way out (as I often do in our summer trade ranking list!) by grouping multiple players at one spot. Since Tim is made of sterner stuff than I, he was determined to put one ahead of the other — even if they ended up at the same predicted contract, as ultimately proved to be the case. I thought it’d be interesting to look back at some of our lengthy debate on the topic, and use it as a jumping-off point for a poll now that we’ve seen both players agree to deals.
It was something of an upset that Tim decided to place Brantley first. After all, he led off that aforementioned email with a series of power arguments that’d make Cutch’s agents blush: McCutchen has more power, doesn’t have platoon issues, “is indestructible,” and is a more versatile defender. Pop, offensive balance, durability, flexibility … seemed like a closed case.
Of course, there are counter-arguments in favor of Brantley, and Steve was happy to provide them in exhaustive detail. He summed up the main thrust of his viewpoint thusly: “Even if you look at their last three seasons, the only thing Cutch has on Brantley is volume of games played. Brantley has been a better hitter (same wRC+, but I’ll take the one that comes with a .300 average and half the strikeout rate) and a wildly better baserunner and defender.” With a slight age advantage to boot, there was quite a bit to like about Brantley.
It was a lively debate — and one that I was glad mostly to sit out while making observations that would keep me in the good graces of both of the warring MLBTR factions. Pro-Brantley: “He doesn’t walk. But he has super-elite contact ability that has allowed him to be a steadily outstanding producer of OBP.” Pro-Cutch: “.360+ OBP the past two years and still above-average power (which might play up in a smaller park). Plate discipline is as good as ever. Durability is a very fair point as well. Lack of platoon splits is nice.”
Ultimately, we predicted three-year, $45MM deals for both players. But that’s not how it has turned out. McCutchen secured a surprisingly hefty $50MM guarantee from the Phillies, who’ll bank on him as a steady and reliable (if not literally “indestructible”) asset for at least the next three seasons. That left us feeling optimistic about Brantley’s market, but word emerged this evening that he will not secure a third guaranteed season, reportedly agreeing to a two-year, $32MM-ish deal with the Astros. Though Houston wants to get the bat in the lineup as much as possible, it wasn’t forced to take on extra injury risk with another promised campaign in order to lure Brantley.
All that being said … how do you view the predictions and signings? (Response order randomized; poll link for app users.)
xabial
Brantley. I don’t worry about decline I worry about health. Plus, he cost a year less. Better deal Should have got QO, most team-friendly
McCutchen has really solid OBP, but think overpaid
davidkaner
McCutchen’s & Kinsler’s Agents deserve huge kudos because those guys just hugely overpaid in a market where the better players are sitting & squirming. It’s JD Martinez all over again. They rip Harper & Machado down so the get off the 400 million they will both sign for less years higher AAV. 5 years 200 million is what I am predicting. Trout will be 5 250 years are coming down AAV going up.
xabial
They removed all the comments but some guy yesterday admitted to making these multiple accs to dv anything I post. This is the dude who needs real job (baseball1600) He blames me for getting banned
Pl dont fall for it guys.
xabial
Probably still making multiple accs as we speak. wouldn’t be surprised if he took it to 100 dv. I’m actually kind of impressed. Get a life bb1600.
I only point this non-baseball comment out because feel people think they have a right to be douche due to these illegitimate downvotes.
Cam
Why do downvotes matter?
xabial
correlation with douchbag responses who feel “they have crowd on their side”
Cam
They’re a number, on a chat forum, that change literally nothing.
The fact that you’re obsessed with them, to this length, is a sign that you have issues.
Get help.
xabial
Easy there Dodger fanboy,
That number directly influences the nasty who think all these dv means people agree them
Probably 10% of those legit
Begamin
+xabial
dawg give it a rest. you’ve been complaining about this stuff for what feels like more than a week. it is such a minuscule problem that you have escalated to be the biggest deal ever. just come up with a new screen name ffs and move on if it is such a big deal to you. crying on every thread, continues crying even after they have to delete half the comments on this post, whining in hopes that people get bans
internet points do not matter, your online persona does not matter, no one cares if you have 100 DV or 100 UV. no one cares if someone impersonates your screen name on the MLBTR comment section (of all places), and no one cares if someone is trolling you
rethink your priorities my man
YankeesWarriorsPatriots
And to add he actually believes 1600 is responsible for all his downvotes
xabial
@frontrunner
most*
bucketbrew35
I’m fine with the Cutch contact. Dude produces similar results but actually stays on the field.
andrewf
Brantley is nothing but injury risk unfortunately
xabial
If healthy, think about as lock hit .300 as any player!
Solaris601
That’s a mighty big IF. As a Tribe fan I understood a long time ago that Brantley’s health hangs by a slender thread, and when he’s out with an injury it’s usually a long stretch.
Begamin
I mean his 2016 and 2017 was definitely a cause of concern injury wise but he did put up 143 games last season. he played a consistent amount of games between 2012-2015. I just think he had a rough two years of so. It may all be behind him.
However, I may be unaware of more recent injury scares as I didnt follow Brantley all that closely
mikecav19
Ok, I am an Astros fan and I looove this signing. I think Brant will be a perfect fit in the lineup. But as far as contracts are concerned, injury risk is huge. You don’t get points for not playing. I think that is definitely factored into the contract. I don’t really think Philly made a bad signing and if Cutch stays healthy and Brant doesn’t, then that could be huge. Only time will tell what is the best deal and we will just have to see it play out. And luck could also be a factor. Both teams took a lot of consideration/variables into account. It will be fun tracking this over the next couple of years.
kreevich
I can’t believe the Astros aren’t going after Harper. They finished just a few sniffs from the World Series, have several players coming off the books and a logical opportunity to upgrade the outfield. What are they waiting for?
MrStealYoBase
They’re too smart to commit that much money to one player. I say this as a White Sox fan. The only reason I give them a shot at landing Harper over other teams is that they have some of the worst analytics in baseball so they’re more likely to overpay.
ASapsFables
Every MLB team has the same analytics. It’s the reliance and analysis of those numbers that differs. I for one believe too much emphasis may be placed on them by some organizations. If the White Sox are one of those teams that don’t rely on them as the end all I applaud them. I prefer a balanced approach that utilizes all these great metrics with first hand scouting, personal interviews along with the eye test.
Sometimes there can be no accountability when relying on analytics. It might be easier for a front office exec to use the excuse that they didn’t make a mistake in judgement because the projected numbers differed from the ones that were ultimately produced. He made decisions based on what the numbers said were supposed to happen. They didn’t, so it wasn’t really his fault.
I prefer a front office exec who is less geek and more hands on with his analysis. Get out of the office, utilize your scouts opinions, personally watch and talk to the players, the prospects and prospective talent and then mix in all those great numbers before making important decisions. Be a freaking manager of people and numbers instead of a bureaucrat.
Kayrall
I, too, think that we should abolish the use of electricity and bring back smallpox.
agentp
Is that really what your inferred after reading that?
bobtillman
Truly brilliant post. Amazing how the more successful franchises this decade (Sox, Giants, Royals) have done exactly what you suggest; i.e., rather than being a slave to metrics, really understanding them.
Funny how metrics have become the new “book”. You know “the book”; whenever a manager or GM made a bad move (one that didn’t work out), he always justified it by referring to “the book” (“The book says….”). .Now they make vague reference to metrics, most of which, quite frankly, they make up; “we have numbers that show…..”
The only REAL value of metrics is that they force players to think about what they’re doing; to have a plan; to execute the plan. Pretty much what Ted Williams used to talk about. As such, metrics can be very helpful.
Otherwise, they’re just silly counting stats. WAR has some relevance; so does Batting Average. And really, in that regard, they’re equally useful. And, BTW, there’s nothing new here; Branch Rickey talked about OBP 80 years ago; Earl Weaver about launch angle 60 years ago.
And yes, the “human” element takes precedence. Player “A” takes a long term deal, and does his best to live up to it. Player “B” takes his, and mails it in until another one is due. Determining which category a player fits into is crucial, much more than the numbers themselves.
Cole Shepherd
and Connie Mack played moneyball 115 years ago. I don’t agree with your paragraph 3, but your last sentence of paragraph 4 is dead on the money. Besides me, and now you, I don’t see anybody in the commentary world who gets this.
martras
Do you know what “analytics” means? Analytics is the analysis work, not the statistics. For the record, each teams has its own “analytics” department who use custom statistics and theories to spot players with capabilities the team’s front office wants.
No team in baseball relies solely upon stats to make decisions and no long lived front office will ever put stats on a pedestal, but effectively run front offices have chosen the best philosophies on staffing and how to make a team competitive and profitable.
TreyMancini
Numbers are just numbers. A computer can spit them out pretty quickly. It’s INTERPRETING the numbers that becomes what separates good GMs from bad GMs. People seem to think, “oh well the numbers say this”, when it reality a mathematical formula can never model real life. It can get really freaking close, but it can never quite reach there. That’s why we still need some scouting in addition to sabermetrics. The numbers can only do so much. Take it from someone in university for math.
bobtillman
A ground ball, possibly catchable, gets by the 2Bman. MIGHT have something to do with his skill level. MIGHT have something to do with his distraction of having a fight with his wife that morning. MIGHT be that he had a fight with his boyfriend this morning. MIGHT be he had a fight with both.
MIGHT be he hates his own pitcher cuz the guy sold him some bad weed last week. MIGHT be he has the same agent as the batter, and likes the guy. MIGHT be that he has a guaranteed 3 year deal and just doesn’t care. MIGHT be it’s the middle of August, it’s hot, and he plays for the Marlins.
The game is just too accidental to go crazy over minutiae. It’s like fighting over who’s better, Betts or Trout. Silly stuff.
Stats and metric predictions ARE relevant; just not overbearingly so. As a vague reference point, they have value. But that’s it.
jbigz12
Maybe when mookie does this consistently you can have that argument. Trout is the best player in baseball.
astrosfan4life
Probably because whomever signs him to the absurd contract will regret it massively by year 3. Neither he or Machado are half ad great as the hype that is surrounding them, and I feel that Luhnow is smart enough to realize that. Every year a player or two is over-hyped and ultimately overpaid. Ask the Cubs, National, and Angels how well those contracts work out.
thelastonetodie
I’d take cutch. OPS and durability is key
larry48
Cutch is playing like an old player no longer catches routine fly balls and is a poor over a;;hitter. He will only get worse I predict he will make list of worst free agent contracts.
DonB34
Show me where he no longer catches routine fly balls. Don’t say “I saw a video of him trip in left field” when he was playing in the horrible Tampa dome during practically the first game of his life in left field.
anoff
I think Brantley took less money/years to go to a team that will be on the World Series shortlist on opening day, while Cutch was looking for more of a market value deal. I think he could’ve gotten a bigger deal elsewhere, just not from the 3 or 4 WS front runners, which largely didn’t need OF help.
lt michaels
With McCutchen maybe you have to take into account the “yicht factor” with Phils. Arguably the worst team in mlb the past 5 or so years.
Ski to Coors
Brantley over the next 2 years > McCutchen over the next 3 years. Especially if you just needed a LF.
wrigleywannabe
I work a lot with middle schoolers.
Most of them have more maturity than 90 percent of posters.
AidanVega123
I don’t doubt it
Jean Matrac
I would have voted for “Astros took more risk; Phillies got the better/more reliable player” if the better part was omitted, and it was just “more reliable”.
And, I hate to be that guy Jeff, but your use of “myself'” in the sentence “Tim Dierkes wrote Steve Adams and myself an email…” is incorrect. It should read, Tim Dierkes wrote Steve Adams and me an email. It’s a pet peeve of mine because its misuse is so prevalent when it’s so easy get right. Whatever it is when it’s just one person is the same when additional people are added. If Tim Dierkes wrote me an email, then it’s Tim Dierkes wrote Steve Adams and me an email. You wouldn’t say Tim Dierkes wrote myself an email would you? I only say this as a fan that appreciates your work and writing.
Jeff Todd
We all make mistakes. Will fix, thanks.
xabial
I made the biggest one..
I knew trigger warning most likely if I posted first, unless it was the perfect post, yet posted anyway…
Brantley all day everyday current contracts factored maybe Cutch, contracts being equal.
retire21
What?
Begamin
+retire
hes been splashing around in his own tears for the past week or so because someone keeps giving him DV
Jean Matrac
Thanks Jeff. We all definitely make mistakes. I make plenty. I knew I would get a lot of down votes, as if writing well is somehow bad. But I was willing to be that guy and they don’t bother me. I have no idea why you got any down votes though.
NYMETSHEA
Brantley deserved more money when you factor what McCutchen received comparatively.
Brantley might have gotten hurt here and there throughout his career, but it only heavily affected 1 1/2 years (however recent). Too many people harp on his fragility, but does not seem to be too horrible. Productive as well. Less power than McCutchen, but can still regularly play centerfield.
jbigz12
I don’t think mccutchen’s deal is a bad one. It wasn’t long ago guys like josh reddick got a 4/52. I think people are too caught up on what mccutchen was. He’s still very good. Very strong chance you get a 3 Win player for the next 3 years. He’s not superstar Andrew mccutchen but he’s a guy id want.
Begamin
i think if you can get brantley for 2/32 then 3/50 for this version of mccutchen might have been a slight overpay
Jean Matrac
I agree. McCutchen’s is a fair deal and the Astros got Brantley on a good deal for them because of the injury history.
Goose
The Phillies must think they are going to make a real run this year and wanted to add another veteran. I can’t believe they are done yet as they have a logjam of position players.
Altherr Williams, Quinn, Franco and Kingery seem to be up in the air and Cozens is knocking on the door.
Brantley is a good move for the Astros. He has health questions but he is a good all around player for a team that is in the middle of it’s run.
DadsInDaniaBeach
Dylan Cozens doesn’t have much future..Huge strike out machine. For me, I’d take Roman Quinn over Odubel Herrera, but that’s just me.
If Harper is signed, and that’s a huge if, then they will pick between Aaron Altherr and Nick Williams as the 4th outfielder. I’d go with Altherr because he can field all 3 positions and can throw. Wms. has poor D.
southpaw2153
McCutchen was not impressive during his Yankee stint. Huge overpay by Philly. Brantley is the more dynamic player, hands down. Excellent signing by Houston…if he stays healthy.
jbigz12
His 892 OPS didn’t impress you? What would it take? 1000? 2000? 3000? He was better than you could’ve ever expected.
DonB34
.421 on-base % out of the leadoff spot. 5 homers in 25 games. One could argue he had a better September than Machado.
The Krukker
Am I the only one who doesn’t see a big difference between 3/$45mil and 3/$50mil? Brantley at 2/$32mil is about the same as far as annual value too. MLBTR was right in the ballpark on both.
stansfield123
$18M is a huge difference.
clubberlang
And an additional season.
stansfield123
On the surface (just looking at the WAR), Brantley seems like the better player because of his defensive numbers.
But if you consider that now they’re both corner outfielders, and toss out the center field numbers (which are terrible for Cutch), things change: they’ve both been serviceable, neither great nor a liability, at the corner outfield.
And McCutchen is the better hitter. They’re both good, but McCutchen is just better, once you look past just this year. Brantley had the better year, sure, but Cutch’s bat woke up once he came over to the Yankees, and he proved he can still hit the way he did in the past.
Only reason why the Yankees didn’t keep McCutchen is that they didn’t need a starting outfielder. They have three of them. Four, if you count Clint Frazier (who IS a starting outfielder, only question is, is he a starting outfielder on a contending team, or on a rebuilding team)
larry48
McCutchen was bad for Yankees and worse for Giants . Defense bad ,hitting less ever year, Bad base runer, slow and will be worse for Phil.
Begamin
whats weird about Cutchs contract is that its backloaded. according to spotrac he is gonna make $10M in 2019, $17M in 2020, and $20M in 2021 ($3M buyout for a club option).
I have a sneaking suspicion that he will not get back to his MVP form as the years go by. This makes me believe the Phillies are planning on trading him before having to actually start paying the guy the bulk of the contract. But who would be willing to eat $17M for a season and $20M for another if McCutchen doesnt start playing like he used to?
The contract doesnt make much sense for the Phillies. Best case scenario would be If he does start playing very well, which then the Phillies would want to hold onto him, for he would be worth more than the $37M that make up the last two years of the contract. However, the odds if his age 34 season being worth 20M seems low to me. If he starts playing like his 2018 numbers or worse, the Phillies are going to want to trade him before having to pay $20M for him, but in that case no one will really want him (bc of the heavy price tag). I think the Phillies would have an easier time trading him if they had a flatter rate spread across the 3 seasons. Maybe with this season being the year they spend $18, and then have the next two seasons be slightly under that.
With this contract back-loaded like this, it feels like the Phillies are either stuck with McCutchen at age 34 (at a rate of $20M) or they are going to have to eat a decent amount of money to move him.
stansfield123
Back loading a contract ALWAYS makes sense for the team. It has nothing to do with “planning to trade him”, it’s an interest free loan. The Phillies are buying McCutchen’s 2019 services for ~$22M, and they’re delaying most of that payment for two years.
He IS worth $22M for 2019. If he was available, at that price, on a one year deal, teams would’ve been clamoring to sign him.
And then, his 2020 year is worth about $16M, and his 2021 another $12M. That’s a good deal for a team, too: if he was a Philly, and a free agent in 2020, instead of this year, the Phillies would’ve happily offered him an extension at that price ($28M + whatever he would’ve made in arbitration in 2019).
David Makai
This post was so good that I had to create an account to reply. Thank you for writing this.
I think the McCutchen signing was necessary if they want to establish a team to start competing with the elites. I think this let Harper and Machado know they’re going to pay at least 1 of them better than any other team. They got a guy who had a .421 OBP in his first time surrounded by other stars. While that’s only 114 PA that’s still very impressive.
Begamin
Im not sure he is worth $22M for 2019 tho. If he starts playing close to his MVP days then sure, but $22M is a lot for an aging outfielder. I dont think a team would sign him for $22M because the largest year for McCutchen in that contract is $20M. The average annual salary for that contract is like $16M. I can see a team ponying up $19, 20M for his 2019 but i cannot see a lot of teams going up to $22M for him. Especially if Brantley can be had for $16M
I think they are going to want to trade him before they have to start paying him what he is worth. I think the Phillies want McCutchen’s 2019 for a cheap $10M and then send him elsewhere so they dont have to pay a $15M player $20M.
jbigz12
Begamin are you thinking right now? Why would another team want him for that price? It’d be a 2/37 for them. That hurts his trade value significantly. Other teams aren’t going to jump at the chance to take on a backloaded contract after you already reaped the rewards of a cheap season. If they truly didn’t want to pay him over the course of the deal it makes a whole lot more sense to even the money out or front load it to an extent to make it easier to move.
Begamin
+jbigz
Thats what im saying! Im willing to put $100 down that says the Phillies try to shop Cutch around after the 2019 season if he stays at his 2018 numbers or worse.
The Phillies are going to want to trade him before they gotta pay $20M for him (maybe even before they gotta pay $17M for him). But because they backloaded it, they wont be able to trade him unless they eat a significant amount of money. It just seems like a smarter plan to keep it at an even rate or even front load it because I dont think Andrew McCutchen is gonna be worth more than $13M in 2021 but now they have to pay him $20M for that season or eat a lot of it to trade him.
stansfield123
What is most surprising is Cleveland not giving Brantley a QO. That’s beyond stingy. Most teams would’ve jumped at the chance to get Brantley for 1 year/$18M.
jbigz12
Stingy or broke? They had to move their starting catcher because they couldn’t afford him. I think not retaining Brantley wasn’t the cheapest move they pulled.
CoryS
Hoping that Brantley is only infiltrating the Astros from the inside and will report back on their cheating ways.
bravesfan
Astros getting “good value” is a bit of an overstatement. If good value means better than the Phillies then I agree. But both teams overpaid
Gordon Lightfoot
Astros have the depth to support a potential Brantley injury, Cutch brings solid leadership to a young Phillies team – good deals within the context of each roster.
YADI
can you imagine what its going to cost for a cheap utility IF guy in a couple years? 5M at least! baseball inflation is much quicker than regular inflation, unless you play in the minors of course.
DadsInDaniaBeach
YADI, yes, it’s been a trend for awhile..however, it looks like teams are moving toward “super utility types”also, if you look at pitchers, their earning power continues to rise also..I see lesser types getting paid well..
joew
Both teams over paid. where is that option?
mlb1225
$16 million a season for Brantley, who hits about .310/.370/.470 with double digits in home runs and stolen bases when he’s healthy is far from an overpay.
joew
has one healthy season the past three seasons and no longer plays a premium position.
10M/year plus very generous incentives for games/innings/plate appearances. that could get him closer to 18M should he play a 150+ game season sounds about right. Because you are right.. if he is healthy hes worth it. I”d also give him a third year option too.
If they where both actually full time center fielders then you pay a bit more cause finding a good hitting and good defending CF both is getting rarer.
mlb1225
Brantley got fair value. Though Cutch’s contract was a bit of an overpay for the Phillies, it wasn’t a massive overpay. It is a backloaded contract, and he will receive $20 million in 2022 when he’s 34, so that becomes kind of questionable. as to how his performance will hold up.
Danny B
Awful move by Phillies. They saw what the Mets were doing, and panicked.
Brodie has got everyone on their heels and now they are making mistakes, left and right.
Mets bring in a Hall of Fame 2nd baseman, this generations mariano Rivera to close and a great closer to be a set up guy!
Combine that with the best staff in the last 30 years and everyone else is playing for second place!
braves25
I am not sure Diaz should be considered “this generations Mariano Rivera? If anybody that title would go to Kimbrel. Diaz has been great for 1 season and really good for another season+ He has to show sustainability to be in the same category as Mo. He could end up being this generations Eric Gagne too, just saying.
DadsInDaniaBeach
LOL! Phillies are too busy looking up at the Bravos and Nats to notice the Mets. LOL! Get over yourself.
jbigz12
This generation’s Mo. yikes buddy he hasn’t thrown a pitch in NY yet.
SoCalBrave
That’s funny Danny B. I’ll make a bold prediction: by the end of next season Familia, not Diaz, will be closing for the Mets.
ortsacnilrats
I don’t know where to post this and unfortunately it’s not entirely baseball related, but why do people honestly care about upvotes and downvotes? In other words, is there any real reason to care or incentive? Like some others have said I strictly use the app and don’t see them which I think helps.
stratcrowder
Wish there was an Elementary school filter. Sifting through all this to find meaningful commentary can be a real chore.
ortsacnilrats
I agree. Although I rarely comment, I have been coming on this site for a very long time and it used to be really good commentary from those who seemingly knew more about the business side of baseball than me. But now, its all about who can get the most upvotes.
Begamin
Im right there with you my man
Altanta Barves
Why wasn’t “both were overpaid” an option? That’s the correct answer.
Jeff Todd
I felt like I was missing something but it was late and I wasn’t thinking straight.
kodion
In my opinion, if that had been an option, there would still be no correct answer since, at this point, they are just opinions.
🙂
Altanta Barves
Your opinion is wrong.
TheBoatmen
I voted Brantley but they are close. It will be interesting to see what Cutch can do in Philly. Have to remember he spent 3/4 of the season and seasons past in a place where offense goes to die.
themilkman
Phillies made the weaker deal. More years. Overpaid. However, you never know how these things will play out. The Phillies best move would have been to relieve Klentak of his duties before this off-season. He has done virtually nothing to build a young core. Aside from Hoskins and Nola, who were both already here, he has done little. I see nothing but mediocrity in Hernandez, Williams, Franco, Alfaro, and Herrera. Now he’s about to spend wildly in free agency as if he couldn’t have done this a couple years ago and spared us the rebuilding bs. The Phillies are a farce.
DadsInDaniaBeach
Milkman, I’m not a fan of Matt Klentak either mostly because he gave us “The Gabe”, but he made an excellent deal with the M’s, right?
This Cutch deal might turn out as a bonanza if he is paired with Bryce Harper..McCutchen hit 15 hrs in SF and another 5 with NY. You have to admit, playing half his games in Citizens Bank Park will add significantly to that number…let’s hope he gets that lefty rotation guy NOT NAMED Minor.
The Krukker
Jury is still out for me. Changing 1B Santana, SS Crawford/Kingery, LF Hoskins to 1B Hoskins, SS Segura, LF McCutchen is a huge improvement. Should easily be a difference of 5 to 8 WAR and it was done by only increasing next year’s payroll by a little over $4mil. That’s pretty good.
The offseason is far from over. Williams, Herrera, Altherr, and Franco won’t all be on our roster by opening day. There’s another trade or two coming and there are still players to be signed. Klentak can still pull it out this year or at least set us up for success in the next two years. Keep the faith.
DadsInDaniaBeach
I was pleasantly surprised with what he’s done so far..turns out he might have some game after all..and, who knows..down the road The Gabe might turn out to be the right guy…
The Ranger Fan
Always wished my Rangers would sign Cutch.
rycm131
I can’t beleive he plays in that hat
Jimbopfd
Equating Brantley with Cutch is ludicrous. One has played an average of 155 games per year for the past three and the other has played an average of 80, and couldn’t reach 155 even in his ‘healthy’ year, even appearing as a DH a few times. One has been a legit MVP caliber player and the other one wishes it were so. One is widely regarded as a legit leader on and off the field and the other is a darling of the ‘advanced’ cyber stat crowd. Brantley may have come cheaper and for a shorter period, but what is it going to cost to get the performance you are paying for when he’s not on the field? And defensively, it’s Cutch hands down, just look at his range factor vs. Brantley, and playing right field at AT&T no less. The only reason this is even a discussion is MLBTR getting it wrong in the first place.
RicoD
Semi-related question:
If you are the Phillies, would you prefer McCutchen AND Brantley over the next 2-3 years (15m and 16m AAV respectively, 31m total) or Bryce Harper assuming you signed him to a 31m a year deal?
(I’m not including the Astros because I think they have enough outfielders at this point in time)
DadsInDaniaBeach
Rico, excellent question…I’m having a hard time with it..I think in the end, I’d go with Harper. Here’s my reasoning..Harper will be around long after the other two with more reliable numbers..that’s my knee jerk reaction..
RicoD
dads, makes sense. Michael Kay said that Harper has offers on the table for 2 yrs/90 mill. I’m sure that makes sense for some teams to go all in for 2 yrs.
My thought is that I rather have 2 for the price of one. Salaries aside, everyone would agree that Harper is a better all-around player out of the 3. He has an insanely high ceiling and many good years of baseball ahead, while the others will continue (or start) to decline. With that being said, over the next 2 years only I think a team will overall be better and more complete with Brantley and McCutchen. By the time their 2 years are up, the free agents will be Mookie Betts & Mike Trout (I’ll take either over Harper), as well as George Springer, At that point you can get 2 more 10-15 mill a year outfielders or go for one of the big fish at that point.
DadsInDaniaBeach
Points well taken..it’s a great question for debate..arguments for both sides have lots of merit..good job
GarryHarris
Historically, players generally have their last high quality season at age 32-33 then have a steep decline. Of course, there have been exceptions but, its worth taking into consideration when awarding large contracts.
DadsInDaniaBeach
and that goes to those that say so and so isn’t worth $______..I’m pretty sure if a player is paid, the team had the money..teams continue to bid against each other for the best..price goes up..I expect Harper to get his $400m contract..and in 5 years, it’ll look like a bargain because some other up and comer will look to get more and will succeed..
In 1980, Nolan Ryan signed the first million dollar contract for Houston..I think he got 4 years at $1M per..amazing..everything is relative..
joepanikatthedisco
Some players’ steep declines come much earlier. Just look at King Felix. Typically these are guys who were either flukey/lucky, or who played early (age-wise) and often. Harper played early and often and it’s very likely he’ll wind up like Andruw Jones (who also debuted as a teenager): below average by the time he reaches 30.
jd396
Catchers especially. They almost universally hit a wall somewhere around 30. Exceptions of course, but not nearly as much so as other positions.
Basically everyone who is productive all the way up to 40ish is either makes it to the HOF or has a lot of advocates wishing he made it to the HOF.
bucsfan
Thank you for your responses and efforts to curb non-baseball related posts.
hopespringseternal
This is simple. A team one year removed from World Champs, proven, talented and recognized as one of the best run franchises….has more purchasing power,. They offered two years, Brantley took it and gets a much better shot at playing in a World Series. Again, not that hard.
DadsInDaniaBeach
Only recently
MetsYankeesWhiteSox
Testing to see if I’m banned…
DadsInDaniaBeach
I see you…why would you be banned?
jd396
You’re banned
kenneth cole
Who cares about contracts? BTS and DK are all that matters
unpaidobserver
Both contracts have their warts. Probably likely that Brantley delivers good Year 1 value to a team that is hoping to win a World Championship and maybe is unconcerned with getting light Year 2 value. McCutchen is just not all that great a player at this point; the third year plus the AAV are kinda headscratching. But, probably a testament to the good impressions he’s left across baseball as to his professionalism, commitment to community, clubhouse presence etc. Don’t think either are good contracts but both make sense in their way.
Nevrfolow
Cutch was smoking the ball last year(43.4 hard hit rate), it just doesn’t show in his final line. I have to think he’ll find more outfield seats this year and drive in 90.
rsmlbtr
Phillies have money too spend. Im not sure which deal I think is better, but to me cutches contract is a way smarter deal for them than the Brantley deal deal is for the astros.
jd396
MLBTR Poll: Helmet or Bucket?
Phattey
Whoever picks these pictures deserves a raise
Connor Williams
Haha yeah Cutch is always fun to watch.