As the Mariners continue to explore further ways to get younger and shed payroll, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the team won’t be attaching Kyle Seager’s contract to Mitch Haniger in an effort to escape the remaining three years and $56MM on Seager’s seven-year deal (subscription required). First and foremost, the Seattle organization considers Haniger to be among the five best corner outfielders in baseball, Rosenthal notes. Beyond that, however, Seager’s contract contains a clause converting a $15MM club option for the 2022 season into a player option, should he be traded. Because that clause makes the remainder of the contract so unappealing to trade partners, he may very well need to rebuild some value in 2019 before he can be flipped. Rosenthal’s column also sheds some light on the Mariners’ other discussions on Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz, in addition to highlighting the organization’s affinity for newly acquired prospect Jarred Kelenic.
Some more trade rumblings from around the league…
- The Padres and Brewers are among the teams still in contact with the Yankees about a potential Sonny Gray swap, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter links). Both organizations have been tied to various starting pitching options, though the Padres are a particularly curious fit, given their focus on the 2020 season and Gray’s status as a one-year rental. However, as Morosi’s colleague, AJ Cassavell, explains in greater detail, San Diego’s interest has some logic to it. Gray’s stock is down, and a resurgence in San Diego (like many arms before him) could allow him to either be traded for a greater price next July or position him to receive a qualifying offer next offseason. Even if the acquisition doesn’t pan out, he wouldn’t put a huge dent into a deep San Diego farm system. As for the Brewers, they’ve already got a deep collection of right-handed starters, but perhaps they view Gray as a premium rebound candidate and/or feel that acquiring him could allow them to deal from the back end of their current collection of rotation candidates.
- ESPN’s Buster Olney tweets that the market for Indians starters Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer could come more into focus now that Patrick Corbin is off the board. Notably, Olney suggests that Cleveland “might” ask that a trade partner take Jason Kipnis and the remaining money on his contract ($17MM), though obviously doing so would rather notably diminish the return that the Indians would receive for any of their top three starters. Still, that scenario would certainly hold appeal to deeper-pocketed suitors of the Indians’ starters — particularly those with a good deal of long-term payroll flexibility (e.g. the Phillies).
- The Rays were among the teams with interest in Mets right-hander Noah Syndergaard, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter link), although Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen strongly downplayed the possibility of trading Syndergaard earlier today. That said, Tampa’s interest in “Thor” is nonetheless notable, as it points to an interest in adding a controllable arm if one can be found at a reasonable financial price point. Then again, as a high-end starter with a projected salary under $6MM and three years of team control remaining, Syndergaard is (or was) something of a rarity on the trade market. Speculatively speaking, perhaps either Michael Fulmer or Jon Gray could be viewed in that same light, but both right-handers are coming off poor seasons, making it tough for their respective organizations to sell low.
Thor • Snell • Glasnow • Honeywell , thats scary
Little too early to view glasnow as scary.
92% of TJ guys make a full recovery
Glasnow’s never had TJ
bencole…..please link an accredited source because that # is way higher than anything ever cited by the AJSM or even MLB.
Yeah this was meant for the comment below. Catmando, I can’t remember where I saw it, I tried to look. I believe it was 92% make a full recovery and 85% approximate their within a standard deviation of their previous performance. But the study was done a couple years back, the numbers are probably even better now.
I mean, think about it, who doesn’t make a full recovery from TJ anymore. Once in a great while you have someone need a second one in their rehab period, for example Daniel Hudson, but who doesn’t make a full recovery?
bencole……….
The American Journal of Sports Medicine did a study a few years ago..they studied 147 TJS pitchers…..
20% never returned
13% returned to picth fewer than 10 games
67% managed to pitch 10 games in a season after TJS
50% ended up on the DL with arm/shoulder troubles
Average ERA before 4.23….after…4.67 – BAA before .249…..and after .257 – WHIP before… 1.368 and after…. 1.432 – % of pitches in the strike zone….51.9 – and after…. 49.6…. Innings pitched before 94.3…. and after…. 77.3 – % of fastball thrown before 63.9 and after 59 – Avg. fastball velocity before 91.2…and after 90.8
The AMJS is in the middle of another similar study. After all you have to wait years between such studies for the pitchers to recover and try to reclaim their careers.
And according to Jon Roegele, a sabermetrician who runs the database Tommy John Surgery List, one out of every two major league pitchers who has UCL reconstruction will throw fewer than 100 innings the rest of his career. si.com/vault/2016/02/11/tommy-john-casualties
“Another recent study from the American Sports Medicine Institute (ASMI) concluded that 19% of Tommy John patients will have a subsequent elbow surgery and 25% will have shoulder surgery.”
mlb.com/pitch-smart/tommy-john-faq
whoever reported the 92% is not looking at the scientific numbers.
Also in regards to having a 2nd surgery..”Although still relatively uncommon, there seems to be an increase in the number of revisions over the past five years. Previous studies have shown only 2-4 percent of pitchers had revisions but more recent studies indicate an increase in that rate to 10-12 percent in Major League pitchers. The rehabilitation takes longer and the success rate of return to pitching is not as good as with the first Tommy John surgery.” Source …. mlb.com/pitch-smart/tommy-john-faq
Damn Catmando – why you gotta bring facts into the conversation?
Sorry, it’s a character flaw
You know what they say, facts are nothing in the face of things.
Interesting, although I’m not sure these numbers are totally telling. I’d have some questions and comments. I also don’t mean this to take away from your data, which the exception of using averages as a standard of measurement. I appreciate your post and learned from it. I always appreciate those who use facts. Here are my comments:
1) Were these 147 pitchers major league pitchers already?
2) How many were only good enough to pitch another 10, 100 games anyway? What percentage of those guys were good enough to keep that spot without TJ?
3) In terms of those that never returned, never returned to the majors, or never pitched again? How many wouldn’t have returned to the majors anyway? How may were too old or declining anyway and just retired? How much is natural age-related decline? How do we take into account rust the first few months dragging down the numbers? I’m honestly not sure if the study I saw took this into account.
4) I would not consider returning to the DL with arm/shoulder trouble indicative of anything, almost every pitcher ends up there. There would need to be some sort of nexus of causation to the TJ for this to be a valid stat. Not saying you’re wrong here, just that these numbers don’t tell us that.
5) The estimated shelf life of a TJ has been estimated to be approximately 6 years (I believe this was something the Nats medical team was estimating). I would not consider future arm injuries in which a direct causation could not be shown, or at very least its a variable that would need to be considered differently.
6) Keep in mind that when you quote an average in a field like this, all of the anomalies are going to be on one side of the equation. You’re going to have the guys that are in the minority dragging down the averages, while you won’t see people making substantial gains. The failures must weigh down the averages because its generally not going to cause significant positive gains. Therefore, while I think you have a lot of valid data data here, average isn’t really a relevant source of measurement.
7. I think you’ve got to remember that MLB shelf life for pitchers is very short anyway and that if you take out the stars, I would suggest that the 50% of MLB pitchers never throwing 100 innings the rest of his career may be fairly characteristic of a good chunk of MLB careers regardless of TJ,
8) Also, keep in mind that full recovery doesn’t mean same performance, in fact, what I said suggests that only 85% get back to within one standard deviation of their prior performance. Without the study I can’t tell you what variables were used to measure a standard deviation. Wish I could find what I’m referring to. But I think a chunk of what you said could still be consistent with what I saw.
The best way to answer your litany of questions is just to provide links.
I’ll start with the source article espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/12648769/what-missed-tommy… . Now you have to realize how studies work and how long the can take (2-3 years) to compile the data etc.
From there go to here …. journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0363546518762…. It’s a synopsis. To view the PDF you have to purchase it so just serach the name of the article as well. There are sources who will give the full info. You just need time and tenacity.
I have read dozens of articles and have never once seen a report of 92%.
Also all of the players studied were MLB players. There are separate studies on youth pitchers and it’s heart breaking to a point. “A study of national insurance records showed that between 2007 and 2011, the number of Tommy John surgeries increased about 4 percent each year overall, but 9 percent per year among high school age pitchers. More than 50 percent of all Tommy John surgeries in that study were on 15- to 19-year-olds.” (source MLB Pitch Smart) but that is actually outdated. A more recent study (I will have to look for it. I just don’t have time right now) was done by either AJSM or Dr. Andrew’s and Dr. Glenn Fleisig’s institute American Sports Medicine Institute that did it has upped the # to the 70% range if memory serves.
If you want real numbers you have to search out the medical reviews online. Most are in PDF form and some but not all charge.
Here is a complete list of every player to have TJ.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gQujXQQGOVNaiuwSN6…
Hey Catmando, see my comment below. I make an argument that a large enough sample size of career numbers may not even be available on this subject. Curious on your thoughts as you seem to study this…
Ben….I will respond later. I happened to see the notice when I woke. Right now my gut is killing me (it’s a long story involving cancer and less than accurate aiming of radiation treatments). I can say what “YourDaddy” posted is accurate and will add more later when my gut calms down after some meds and time.
Cool man take care of yourself… you seem to know more on this than me, just attempting to thought-provoke as the numbers you cite seem low to me. I’ll take a look tomorrow at your daddy’s list if I can.
Honeywell also had tj and could be done as many before him.
Or he comeback as throwing better than he ever has like many before him
Terrible sentence haha. Point is statistics on tj have changed.
92% of TJ guys make a full recovery
That number is actually lower (just do a little research) fangraphs captures it well. They say roughly 80% and the success rate is determined by coming back and pitching one game.
FYI – fangraphs.com/tht/tommy-john-surgery-success-rates…
Of the 335 TJ surgeries performed on MLB pitchers from 1997 through 2016, 71 did not result in a player returning to MLB.
That is a 21.2% failure rate.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gQujXQQGOVNaiuwSN6…
From the article @luclusciano posted, this is a telling quote, “if you’re curious about the typical post-surgery career for just those pitchers who do get back to major league baseball, the median games played was 102 and the median innings pitched was 167 for all major league pitchers who underwent the surgery between 1974 and 2009 for the rest of their careers”. 14 of those that had TJ surgery as late as 2009 are still pitching as of 2018, so the story is not complete, but even then its not pretty. TJ surgery is not something you want your pitchers to ever have or have had.
Sure but I think statistics are far more favorable now… I’d be measuring a more recent timeline, say 2011 -present. 1997 Tommy John was far more risky, and I think in reality you present the real argument that career numbers aren’t relevant to the analysis at this point because TJ hasn’t been relatively routine for very long, at least long enough to have a large enough sample size of full-career numbers. Curious on your thoughts Catmando?
It takes 12-24 months to recover from TJ surgery and return to active duty. The latest you can include are players that had their surgery in late 2016. The percentage of those returning from TJ in 1996-2010 and those from 2011-2016 are pretty much exactly the same. 21.1% failure rate to 21.2% failure rate with the latter time period being slightly higher in failure rate. The data sample is smaller from 2011-2016, so that may account for the slightly higher failure rate.
Fact is, you were wrong about your 92% return rate and the guys that do return have roughly 1/3 (33.7%) the durability of the guys that had no TJ surgery. That data is all based on guys that were already in the majors.
Go look yourself. I posted the link to the most definitive list available twice.
Will do man, I just cited a study I’d seen. Will dig in when I have time, I appreciate someone using facts though, and like I said above, the numbers seem low to me so I thought I’d ask some questions. Unfortunately I litigate for a living so research time can be up and down.
Ben……I’m just the opposite. I’m disabled and have time (when I don’t feel like total crap) to read so I read about things that interest me…TJS, certain legal cases, have read the CBA and JDA front to back many times…things that would bore most people I find interesting.
Anyway, the article “yourDaddy” cited is an excellent compilation of several studies as well as Jon Roegele’s own endless research.
As far as the #’s go…A study from say 2011 until today can’t be feasibly done. It can be from 2011-14 or so because of the time off from pitching that is required.
Let’s say Pitcher Joe Smith gets TJS June 2012. It takes Smith 17 months to recover. He comes back to the majors in ST 2014 and does OK but not like he did and he only starts 16 games. You now need to wait and view his performance in 2015 & 16. He is grouped in with the other 141 MLB pitchers to have TJS from 2011-14 (those are the actual #’s BTW) . Then comes the compilation of all of the stats from games played, IP, velo, % of strikes and on and on. It takes years.
TJS is cutting someone open in two places, removing the damaged ligament, removing another healthy ligament from somewhere else, drilling into bone, threading the “new” ligament through two holes in a figure 8, stitching the ligament and praying it holds up. The procedure is exactly the same as when Dr. Jobe first preformed it. The only change is better instruments and faster technique (not my words…those are words of both the late Dr. Jobe and Dr. Andrews).
TJS is not a magic bullet. It is still a risk, it’s just public perception that it almost always works. Just like some parents and coaches still think kids in HS should get it done so they throw harder….it’s bull. All TJS does is restore stability to the elbow as it once was.
The cause is over use, especially as a kid and the damage is cumulative…it doesn’t just snap because some guy pitches on 4 days rest. It takes years.
The human body is not designed to throw overhand with max effort. TJS in the track and field world is called “Javelin elbow”. Why? Because they throw overhand, repeatedly with max effort. You rarely see a sidearm or submariner jet TJS because there is less strain in the elbow.
Overuse, especially as a youth, throwing all of the time with max effort, poor mechanics, and constant emphasis on velocity are all the culprits.
More studies are being done all of the time but the results are not likely to change. It may seem like most pitchers do come back but that is because those are the ones we hear about. It’s human nature to forget about Joe Smith if he has TJS and only makes it back to pitch in ST and 2 MLB games.
Hope this helped, I’ll check back Thursday if I feel OK. Have a good one.
Actually the article to read was cited by luclusciano not YourDaddy… fangraphs.com/tht/tommy-john-surgery-success-rates…
The rays are going to be the team of thors with him Stanek and Hunter Wood
Thor is not leaving the Mets!! Nats signing Corbin pretty much ends trade talk, he is a core player…
This pretty much is the opposite of every recent report coming out of New York
Honeywell would be part of a Thor package…
Mets aren’t trading Thor As a Rays fan I shudder to think what prospects it would take. besides we have lots of cheap options in our minors. Stay with the young guys and give the extra money to sign Snellzilla forever.
Don’t forget about Jake the Snake Faria (ok no one really calls him that).
Glasnow is scary when you look at his lack of control at times
That’s a World Series Pitching roster right there
And even if Glasnow doesn’t develop, 3 of the games top pitchers PLUS we have a lot more prospects ready to go (Yarborough got 15 wins last year)
Honeywell hasn’t thrown a major league pitch please do not classify him as one of the game’s top pitchers. Dylan Bundy was going to be one of the game’s top pitchers too before he made it to the bigs……Let’s see Honeywell pitch first.
I’m positive the Mets are testing the waters if there is a super package of prospects some desperate team will offer. They are just fishing with Thor, same with Bamgardner and Kluber.
A team should definitely do the Indians a solid and pick up the tab on kipnis if it means getting one of the best SP in baseball
I thought maybe the phillies could include Cesar + a prospect or 2 for Carrasco.
For Carrasco and taking on Kipnis, offer Odubel Herrera, Zach Eflin and Cesar Hernandez. Save the prospects.
Actually,for carrasco,that may be TOO much. Meaning we the zPhils,may not have to give THAT much! Herrera,Hernandez and a Suarez,Romero type may get it done. I’m in 100percent. Thing is,I can see,watching him pitch pain free,Eflin is gonna be GOOD.
lol
Why would the Indians want that garbage?
Yankees could eat that Kipnis’ money and throw him at 2nd while Didi is out
yanks had interest in him in the past too
Didi plays SS.
Shifting Gleyber to his natural position at SS
Kipnis can’t play short, so you put him at 2nd and slide Torres over to SS, which he can play.
Torres is not a major league SS.
It’s why Cashman brought in Adeiny Hechavarria late last year.
SS is Gleyber Torres’ natural position. He’s actually better suited to play SS, than 2B.
Do you know ANYTHING about baseball? Torres has always been a SS
Hech was brought in because Andujar can’t play defense, not Torres.
I’ve seen a lot of reports that Torres isn’t really viewed as a good defender at short. I don’t know if I’d say he’s better suited there than at second.
JD, love ya man, but can u cite these reports?
Sounds like from Boston Globe or Sherman.
Doesn’t matter if Torres was once SS. He played 2B and 3B in the minor leagues as well. Lots of 2B’s, 3B’s, and OF’s came up as SS’s. Heck, Victor Martinez’ “natural position” was SS. Indians made him a Catcher. Bad move. He’d have HOF numbers if they’d have moved him to 3B….took a physical toll on him.
I watched Torres play SS for the Yankees this year. A number of te a steps down from Didi of course, He looked uncomfortable playing there; limited range and arm. Shortly after that – during the stretch run – Cashman brought in Adeiny Hechavarria……to play SS.
Hechavarria did play some 3B – 10 innings in 4 games. He played 92 innings in 16 games with the Yankees. Again, he was brought in to play SS.
I was thinking the exact same thing. Move Torres to SS, Kipnis at 2B for probably the 1st half of the season while Didi’s out. Kipnis is the LH’ed bat the Yankees could use also. The Yankees get any one of the Indians 3 SP’ers named and Kipnis. The Indians get salary relief and a couple, 2 or 3 prospects, not elite but decent prospects close to ML ready. Seems like a win/win.
I don’t believe the Indians will give up Kluber in exchange for salary relief and non-elite prospects. That would be deeply foolish.
Kipnis’ Bad money is 1/17. Kluber is on a 3/51. He has so much surplus value at 3/68 if you expect nothing out of kipnis that it’ll require much more than a couple decent prospects. It’s going to hurt
Forget Kipnis contract.
Kluber is on a team-friendly contract for 3 years. Never had a major injury. Cy Young winner. One of top 5 starters in MLB. Good for 200 innings a year.
Would take Miguel Andujar, Estevan Florial, and a quality pitching prospect.
Kluber is cheap. Indians can keep him. They’re not going to trade him for another teams garbage.
To the 3 replies. I didn’t specifically say Kluber, I said one of the 3. In fact my preference would be Bauer of the 3 SP’ers. The Yankees aren;t going to give up Andujar, Florial and a quality pitching prospect and take on all the guaranteed salary. The Yankees aren’t the Mets and the Yankees having already gotten Paxton have a bit more flexivility when it comes to adding a pitcher.
The Yankees expect to win every year. And both the Red Sox and Astros are still miles better than the Yankees. Adding Kluber would be the difference between the Yankees competing for a wild card and competing for a title.
The Yankees are not getting a TOR starter without a package that includes Florial.
I would be fine with a package including Florial, German, Adams and low level lotto tix for Kluber/kipnis. Florial is years away and blocked.. why hold on when the window closes so quickly. Make the move if agreeable
Define miles better? 7 wins in a season? 3 wins? that does not seem like miles.
Cleveland “might” ask that a trade partner take Kipnis? Thats not news, thats speculation, and poor speculation at that. Why would Cleveland do that? I expect better from Buster.
I also don’t think this site should post things other than actual rumors. Buster Olney thinking that the Indians might do something because it makes sense to him isnt necessarily based in reality and isn’t news worthy.
I’m only complaing because now I’m gonna have to listen to Indians fans complain about how stupid diminishing the value of Kluber by adding on Kipnis and his salary is for the next 48 hours. In reality this is something that would likely never happen.
That’s comical…”shouldn’t post things but actual rumors” that’s the very nature OF a rumor…
what? you didnt actually counter his argument by stating a rumor is a rumor when someone says theyd rather this site only post rumors
I strongly agree. We need more accountability to our rumors. I think each rumor should have at least 2 reliable sources, known to the poster
I also believe in nailing jelly to the wall.
That seems like a logical step that seems to be trending with organizations shedding payroll. Right now, Cleveland is limited to the organization that have very deep prospect pools and need an ace. Not many have those two. But if you include Kipnis, you’re lowering your return and supplementing that with shedding shedding payroll and opening up a position. Now you can talk to teams that are in the midst of preparing to contend with the big dogs of the playoffs. Braves, Nationals, Brewers, Cardinals, and more.
There is no way the Indians would diminish the value of Kluber in a trade by including Kipnis just so they can give themselves the privilege of freeing up enough payroll to compete with other teams in the shallow FA market. Insane. If the Indians actually have the nuts to trade Kluber they are either gonna receive someone like Verdugo or Nimmo who can help now, or a handful of other TOP prospects whose surplus value can be used to acquire someone who can help right now.
Trading a starter right now makes no sense for CLE, period. They’ll walk into the playoffs without doing anything. Why jeopardize that?
Indians need Mitch Haniger. Need to get a third team involved.
Their is diminishing the value of him if it helps off-load a player that in any other scenario no one would take (Kipnis). Right now, Cleveland has a combo of Kipnis and Kluber offer. Which you can still get prospects to increase your youth and prospect pool, while gaining money to invest in other players. Cleveland SP depth is deep, this is why the conversation should be had. You have to think of the investment you gain from combining it with Kipnis, you can keep you’re other talent when you need to extend them later on. Kluber is at his peek, this is the time you can do some impact and even include Kipnis. Only way to move him and use that roster and position effectively.
Because the AL Central sucks. They could trade one of their core starters and still waltz away with the division.
I’m with you pun I don’t get it. Low payroll team had a window to get in the playoffs and see what happens. You go for it and when it’s over you sell what you have that has value and rebuild. But your point is spot on. Nobody in that division is decent
Mitch is staying in Seattle.
Because they can walk into the same playoffs minus one of their SPs, but the holes they have that will be filled by any trade will increase their chances of actually progressing through the playoffs.
I think their best chance in the playoffs will still be running out the best possible rotation. It’s not like trading Kluber will let them sign Machado.
Because they are in no position to do any damage once they get there?
Dumping one of the league’s best pitchers so they can sign a mid-range outfielder or 2nd baseman doesn’t seem like it’s going to increase their chances of doing damage. I’d rather roll the dice with the rotation and hope they deliver a dominant October. I think in general quality pitching is more reliable in October than your lineup.
They have a great top of the rotation + Lindor and Ramirez. They could be in a much worse spot come playoff time…
I love reading all the baseball related comments and all that but you all have to remember baseball is a business. It’s about making a profit while being competitive—and yes it goes in that order. The Indians will take less for Kluber by including Kipnis so long as a) the balance sheet is in a better position than it was before and b) the return keeps them competitive now and for the future. And yes, it’ll be in that order.
What are the biggest holes in the Cleveland lineup? What positions should they be looking to fill in a trade of one of their big 3 starters?
Corner Outfielders and bullpen are the biggest needs. Also a SP prospect would help.
And back to my original point, 6 days ago RJ Anderson of CBS Sports wrote an article that included a quote from Mark Bowman of mlb.com. “Early indications are Atlanta would have to deal Cristian Pache, Kyle Wright and Toussaint for three years of Kluber. That’s not going to happen.”
This is a real rumor. This is someone with actual credentials going on the line saying I have a source saying this is what the Indians asked for. Why was this never reported on this website? I’m still waiting to have a focused conversation about this rather than have conversations about Buster Olney’s random thoughts lots of writers disagree with (see fangraphs front page)
He isn’t just throwing out his speculation on it. As soon as the reports came out that Cleveland was listening to offers on their starters multiple beat writers and people connected to the team we’re reporting they would be looking into multiple trade scenarios including trying to find a way to attach Kipnis or Edwin to a trade if possible.
Why is Seager in drastic decline? Last 3 years…
OPS+ went from 133 to 109 to 86
WAR dropped from 6.9 to 2.5 to 0.8.
Makes no sense.
I was wondering the same thing about Kipnis. Both are left handed perhaps the increased shifts are finally catching up to them?
It’s almost like his little brother showed up and he got the yips. Definitely weird, but i hope he gets back on track.
He used to be the guy Mariner fans wanted to see up guys on base. Now it’s quite the opposite.
It is the shift. It’s killing most LZh batters!
Partly because he’s developed into a pull hitter with an uppercut and shifts work against him. Get him in a hitters park or somewhere with a short right field line and watch his HR’s and WAR climb.
Or tell him that the “fly ball revolution” isn’t for everyone. It isn’t mandatory to become a 3 outcome hitter…
He’s a pull hitter, but he’s lost the uppercut to his swing. He once beat the shift by knocking the ball over the infielders head, now it’s line drives to them.
You can thank the shift for that. It’s been going on more and more.
Part of Seager problem is that he is really effect by the shift. Last year he lost more base hits due the shift than anyone else. At one point I think they said like he lost 30 hits.
League makes adjustments…look at Harper’s past 3 WAR totals v Eric Hosmer.
Its shifts & pitch selection.
Still would love to see one of these Mariner trades be with Atlanta. Love the idea of them getting Riley and some of the younger pitchers, especially if looking to trade Seager. Haniger and Paxton made a lot of sense to them before Paxton was traded to the Yankees.
As a Brave fan I’d turn away any trade offer that included Seager. We’ve got Donaldson for at least a year and Riley waiting in the wings. Yes Haniger is good and I’d love to have him but Seager’s contract prevents me from even considering a trade.
Yeah, I wasn’t mentioning that as Seager to the Braves. I was referring to Haniger, Paxton, and Zunino before the last two were traded. Haniger is a perfect fit for Atlanta IMO. An OF of Acuna, Enciarte, and Haniger would be ridiculous.
I don’t see anyone as takers for Seager right now, and I’d rather we just hang on to him in order to let his trade value increase a little more instead of packaging him. Especially since we don’t have anyone to replace him at 3B
Haniger is staying in Seattle. Dipoto has said “he will not package Seager with Haniger.” He also said that “Mitch is one of the Top 5 corner OF’s in the game” and the team is looking to build around him. Take it for what it’s worth from Diooto.
He also said he isn’t trading Diaz.
San Francisco and Tampa have traded alot in recent years…how about Bumgarner for an interesting arm (ie. gomez) and a young OF like lowe or sanchez
Theres no way TB would give up part of their future for a 1 season rental. The Rays only make deals with SF to fleece them
Yeah because Christian Arroyo and Matt Duffy are superstars, while Lucius Fox is doing well. At least Matt Moore led the giants the the 2016 postseason. His no-hit bid into the 9th against the dodgers and his clutch postseason start make up for whatever duffy did in Tampa.
Taking the Longo contract off the Rays hands looks like a miracle a year later. Massive win on that whether they get anything out of Arroyo or not. FWIW I don’t think he will give them much of anything. Matt Moore deal was a robbery as well. Duffy worth 2 wins more playing basically one year and Lucius Fox arrow pointing up, borderline top 10 prospect in loaded system.
If not Longoria then who do the giants pay? Todd Frazier? Mike Moustakas to play in ATNT? Eduardo Nunez? The FO was desperate and needed a 3B to pay. Longoria missed a month and a half of the season and was still a 2 win player. Saying the Giants got fleeced is an incredible overstatement. They gave up no impact player or prospect, all they did is pay Longoria to be a 4 win player, and got a 2 win player instead. And without Matt Moore the giants don’t make the 2016 playoffs.
Any of those third basemen you mentioned would have cost them tens of millions of dollars less than Longo. He just had his worst season by a mile, OPS+ of 89. I’m a big Longo fan, hope he can turn it around. But players entering their mid 30s typically continue to decline.
Taking on Longos contract was more than enough to win the trade. 4 more expensive years of declining production. Duffy and Fox are meh but their production is an added bonus compared to Moore falling off the face of the earth after 2016
Ok, did you even read the entirety of my comment? I don’t think the Longo move was good by any means. All I’m saying is that it’s far from a “fleece” Longoria put up better numbers in the MLB in 2018 than Arroyo did in AAA. All the giants did is take on a bad (not horrible) contract. This is far from a fleece.
It’s for moves like the longo trade that the giants stole away Zaidi from LA.
Longoria is making 14 million a season. Arroyo is 10 years younger and on dirt cheap pre-arb deal rn. That trade is part of the reason why they had to hire Zaidi
Ok. You would rather pay someone dirt cheap to do their job terribly, or overpay someone to do a mediocre job. Your choice.
The first choice and so would all 30 GMs now that Bobby Evans is out
Longoria is basically a 2-win player being paid like a two-win player. He’s not really overpaid at all. The young Longoria isn’t coming back, but the current one isn’t some terrible albatross. He’s basically Chase Headley now (the Yankees version), where he’s fine but feels disappointing because he was once much better.
No one is paying 2 win players that anymore. We saw it last offseason and will see it again when Andrew McCutchen becomes this years Moustakes
maybe 2 win relief pitchers
Sure, but Longori’a extension was signed when he was a 5-win player – he has provided surplus value over his contract, by far.
No Longoria is disappointing because he’s not good enough to be a starting 3B on a playoff contending team. Longo’s salries are 14.5, 15, 18.5, 19.5 and then a 5MM buyout. No part of that is paying Longoria like a 2 win player. Not even close. Todd Frazier got paid like a 2 win player 2/19. And that was coming off a 3 win season. You’re way off.
2 wins is worth $16.8 million in 2018 according to Baseball Reference.
Longoria put up 1.9 WAR in 2018. That is worth $15.96 million.
Seems to me that by that data, Longoria is also providing surplus value the next 2 years if he puts up 2 WAR.
Hey Catmando, see my comment below. I make an argument that a large enough sample size of career numbers may not even be available on this subject. Curious on your thoughts as you seem to study this…
That’s a lot to give up for 1 year of a declining Bumgarner. They would be looking for someone with at least a couple years of control in a trade.
All these ppl on heat with the declining Bumgardnrrvwere all saying the declining Verlander a couple years ago too and how did that work out.
Stat geeks gotta love them. MadBum is what 29 ???
Fair enough, I wouldn’t bet against a bounce back for MadBum. But my main point was that I couldn’t ever see the Rays making that deal.
That’s not really the point… Verlander appeared to be declining at the time, and his trade value absolutely reflected that. What he has done post-trade doesn’t really mean anything with regards to what his trade value was at the time.
The same can be said about MadBum. The Giants will be trying to trade him for peak value, but in reality, teams are only interested because they can buy low on him – based on both performance and contract status. There’s a very real chance that he pulls a Verlander and becomes great again post-trade, but teams aren’t going to pay a premium for hopes and dreams. They’ll pay current value and hope he over performs, just like Verlander. And in the OP’s opinion, the suggested deal would be too much for MadBum’s current value.
Verlander’s trade value wasn’t that low. Look back in time at 35 year old pitchers making bank and see what the return was. I thought the return would be lower for a team out of any hope of contending trying to she’d payroll.
Kipnis and kluber to dodgers for puig kemp alvarez.
It’s going to take more from LA.
Lol
That is maybe the most hilariously bad trade I’ve ever seen here – and there have been a lot.
That will work if the dodgers want to pay all of Kemp’s salary. Otherwise it won’t. Indians are trying to shed payroll.
We keep saying Verdugo and you guys keep throwing Puig out there. Kemp is new, as far as I’ve seen….not that the Indians will have much interest. I love Alvarez.
Do you know who you’re talking about? No one should love Alvarez. He walks guys like Tyler chatwood.
Fine. If he’s so bad, we’ll take him off your hands. Give you Jason Kipnis for him.
Yes, your name is absolutely perfect for a comment like that.
How does Puig and Kemp save Cleveland money? Three years of Kluber is worth so much more than one year of an overpaid player and one year of a nutcase.
If I’m the Yanks GM, I’m happily taking all of Kipnis’ money plus another bad contract in order to get Kluber or Carrasco
Kluber & Kipnis to Atlanta
Teheran, Wright, Pache to Cleveland.
Two elite prospects to Cleveland and a starter to fill the back of the rotation & clearing some money in the deal for Atlanta balances the deal on finances.
Braves take 33 million, send back 11 million.
So basically this is Wright and Pache for Kluber because Teheran for Kipnis is essentially a wash
Doubt that would ever get it done
Agreed. Teheran is the perfect example of an NL only #3. Exposing him to facing AL East teams so many times turns him into nothing but a back end starter at best.
John, it’s the daily Teheran trade proposal that has haunted this site for a couple years. People bash the Yankees fans about over hyping Gray’s value, and Sox fans about Swihart’s value.
Bizarro world. Take my upvote.
Vinny, it was down vote city for me yesterday when I got on Yankee fans deriding Corbin now, when he was such a great add just 48 hours earlier. Caught flack also because of my negative take on the CC and Gardner signings.
cereal…to a great many, if you are a fan you are not allowed to be a realist.
Cat..I also complained about the cautious approach the Yankees have taken the last three years. I’ve voiced my disdain for acquiring Stanton last year. If say the Dodgers got Stanton last year and he put up those same numbers, most these same Yankee fans would be saying what a poor year he had, and what a waste of money…instead they talk about what a good year he had in his first year in NY.
Oh I know….I read almost every article and almost all comments, I just don’t always comment. You are very rational and can not be classified as a “homer” in any stretch. To the contrary some Yankee fans see you as a non-fan for not viewing NYY colored glasses. Keep up the good work.
This site has devolved into a nursery school atmosphere most of the time. Just look at the flack Xabial catches.
Much of what he gets is just people trying to rile him up. I have tried to explain to him that whining about down votes and replying makes it worse. Also saying “keep up votes but get rid of downs” just appears to many as self centered. Also pointed out that “patting himself on the back” so often doesn’t sit well with many. I give up now, he is young and will understand someday.
I too have got on him about the voting stuff, but I think he’s been raised where only positive reinforcement is all that is allowed.
Sadly that is all too common nowadays and doesn’t prepare kids for real life. Kinda like parents who won’t let their kids play in the dirt and they grow up only to be sick a lot because their immune system wasn’t prepared.
Dude don’t take it personal. You had a take on CC and Gardner signings and most of us didn’t agree with you. It’s not Yankee fanboys. You literally were making it seem as if those signings were bad because you said there were cheaper and better options. However, you offer zero examples. Unless someone attacked you personally then you need to have a thicker skin and defend your thoughts with some sort of logic or proof.
Nowhere did I say anything about cheaper options, better yea, but never cheaper. I said the money they used could’ve been allocated differently, and the cost for both those players wasn’t worth bringing them back period, no matter what capacity. The thin skin stuff is not my point here at all.
At least it is a better offer than those made by many Dodger and Yankee fans, Wright and Pache are definitely interesting for the Indians. Teheran will struggle in the AL. Kipnis would be more useful to stay with the Indians than Teheran.
If you upgraded Pache to an Anderson or TOussaint I might bite as an Indians fan. Not that interested in Teheran, but he does have more actual value than Kipnis and his contract is cheaper.
Couldn’t you Braves fans do better in regards to moving Teheran? He actually still has some value, at least more value than being a finacial throw in, right?
Jesus here come the Braves fans with their Teheran trades again… Teheran has negative trade value at even half his contract. Adding Teheran to any trade makes Atlanta have to give up more, or get less in return. He’s not a #3. He’s not a #4. He’s awful.
He’s just awful at their new stadium. Anywhere else, he’s a middle of the rotation innings eater and that has some value… look at his home/away splits
Stop the Indians DON’T WANT PROSPECTS!!!!!!!!
Kluber and Kipnis to the Yankees for florial loaigiaga and German who says no
Everyone on Earth.
Probably the Yankees actually
The Yankees should agree to that one or they should’ve ponied up the cash for Corbin earlier today.
jbigz, exactly, for a Cy Young award winner..hell yea!
Well if the Indians don’t, the commissioner’s office would.
Haniger, a top 5 corner-outfielder? That must be when you consider others as “primarily a DH,” I’d assume.
This year Mitch Haniger ranked fourth among all corner outfielders with 4.6 fWAR:
fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=rf&stats=bat&#…
fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=lf&stats=bat&#…
Haniger trailed DH J.D. Martinez but was ahead of Giancarlo Stanton.
If we’re comparing WAR lets look at Harper’s v Hosmer’s past 3 seasons.
As much as Phil’s fans hate on Franco, offensive stats identical to Seager.
You say that like it’s a good thing.
On face value, Seager has been viewed as a above average 3B. Franco, while he doesnt play a good hit corner, has at least put up Top-15 numbers positionally. Like it could be worse, they could have given Franco 19M a year. Most fans view him as a scrub.
i actually want them to hold onto Franco until Arrenado next year. more than likely would only get a lottery ticket for him anyway.
Seager will turn it around in 2019 and the Ms will be able to trade him at the deadline.
I am sure Seager, Santana, Bruce and Gordon will have solid first half’s and be moved at the deadline to clubs making a move for the playoffs. All solid players.
If they aren’t all traded before the season starts. I wouldn’t be shocked at all if all were gone before opening day
Can Gordon play LF? He’d fit well on the giants
I’m sure an acquiring team would put him back at 2B
lol, just the fact you are asking that…
Let’s hope!
Haniger is a heck of a player, but I’m not sure I’d put him as one of the top 5 corner outfielders yet. He needs to play a whole season and continue to improve. You don’t become a top corner outfielder with one very good season. You have to do it consistently. If he does that, then he will be a top 5 corner outfielder. He has the ability to do that, but has to actually do it first.
Mitch Haniger played in 157 games this year.
As a point of reference, over the past two seasons Boston corner outfielder Andrew Benintendi has posted 6.4 fWAR in 299 games while Haniger has posted 7.1 fWAR in 253 games.
I know he played 157, but he was also hurt again. I like Haniger & I think he’s got a ton of potential, but this is the first time he’s played more than 100 games. You have to put together a few top end seasons before you are a top 5 outfielder. I honestly don’t care about WAR. I pay no attention to that stat. I look at hits, on-base-percentage, RBI’s and the number of strike outs a player has. I also watch the player play defensively. Haniger is definitely an up-and-comer outfielder and might me a top 5 corner outfielder real soon. He just isn’t there yet (and I don’t consider Benintendi a top 5 corner outfielder either).
Who is a top 5 corner Ofer to you? I could care less about RBIS I’m not sure why you would. So many variables go into that the batter has no influence over. It’s clear that Yelich, Judge, and betts are the top 3 in no particular order. I’d have a hard time not putting benintendi or Haniger or Acuna in the next two slots.
Honestly, I really don’t care what anyone values our RF, as long as he’s staying in Seattle. You can rank him 37th and I’ll stick Mitch #3 in my lineup and be happy as pie.
It kills me when I see some guys write about how stupid and impossible Onley’s suggestion about coupling Kluber and Kipnis is. Sorry folks, it’s pretty likely to happen IF the Indians can pull it off.
I know in the fantasy world 15M (Kipnis) is monopoly money, but in the real world, it’s real money. If the GM can win the division( which they’re going to do anyway) with a labor cost of 100M instead of 115M, he does it in a heartbeat, and doesn’t think twice. So he takes a “lower level” prospect….like Mike Trout instead of Matt Moore, maybe? Maybe Mookie Betts instead of Blake Swihart?
Any corporate executive who saves his boss 15M is a corporate executive who keeps his parking space (not to mention his job). Not to think that that’s the way it operates is just silly.
Onley’s right on (and BTW is a pretty experienced reporter).; he wouldn’t have said it with no basis in fact; the guy doesn’t roll that way.
Frankly, the aft-mentioned Rays are perfect for that scenario. They can use Kipnis’ probably resurgent bat (contract year) and flexibility. And Kluber fits on a young team that can use a guy like him; top notch pro, first rate competitor. Makes dramatically more sense than Thor with his “hope for 100 innings” profile. (I know, he’s going to be different this year…I know, I know) And the Rays have the payroll space (and more, actually). And the Rays have some mid-tier prospects that are better than other teams’ higher rated ones.
Yeah I disagree with this entirely. This isn’t our corporate world. These guys play in big bucks, and for championships. I’d be shocked if the Indians took less to throw in Kipnis. If they did it’s be because they couldn’t get what they felt was enough for him.
So many people thinking Kluber and Kipnis to the Yankees. I think if Kluber is traded, it’s to the NL. You don’t trade an ace to a team you’re likely to play in the playoffs.
You trade to whoever offers the best price. If it’s the Yankees you do it.
Preller has a history of taking 1 year gambles on players in trades and free agency.
Freddy Galvis chase headley last year. Jon Jay year before. Not surprised hes interested in gray.
Not sure I would refer to Freddy Galvis as a “gamble.” The outcome the Padres got there was pretty much always going to happen.
Preller would have gotten a decent prospect for Jon Jay had he not broken his hand.
Preller took a gamble on chase Headley hoping his 2nd half the previous year would lead to a similar first half and trade and took a gamble on Freddy Galvis breaking out in a contract year (which seems to happen a lot- players putting up career years in contract years). Headley was also in a contract year.
Preller has seemed willing to take gambles on 1 year players hoping to catch lightning in a bottle. Makes sense why he’s interested in gray- 1 year contract year gamble.
Preller took Headley on simply to get Mitchell. Headley was always destined to be released; he was the cost for taking on a good arm. The fact that Mitchell was truly horrible sort of negated the strategy, but it wasn’t a bad strategy. Headley never really got any kind of opportunity to play in 2018.
Headley was acquired to get Mitchell. That’s it. Padres FO never actually wanted Headley.
Galvis is a known commodity. Gamble implies a bunch of different possible outcomes with some being better than what you initially paid and some being worse. EDLS was more of a gamble and Preller exchanged that gamble for a known commodity. Unfortunately, that known commodity’s value to a rebuilding team was lower than that of all the possible outcomes for EDLS.
Sonny Gray and Giancarlo Stanton to the Braves for Soroka, Gohara, Ynoa plus Teheran and O’Day. Yankees add an extra 5 million if Stanton doesn’t opt out of his contract.
You’re a braves fan and you want to give up soroka for Stanton? If the braves would take the remainder of Stanton’s contract they could have him for Julio Teheran.
The Yankees are not taking Teheran and O’Day unless we give them something in return. Plus we’re also getting Gray and 35 million to reduce Stanton’s annual salary by 5 million per year if he doesn’t opt out. If he has a couple of great years with the Braves, he’ll opt out and we’ll get a compensation pick while Pache and either Waters or Jenista take over center and right field.
Sure but what you give isnt soroka- Gohara and wilson maybe but even thats an overpay considering Teheran has 2 years and O day 1 and youd be saving new York the back half of that contract……
SoCalBrave….Stanton would still have to wave is NTC, why would he…plus the Marlins are already on the hook for $30M if he doesn’t opt out. Miami to pay $5M cash each 7/1 and 10/1 in 2026, 2027 & 2028 with the full $30M amount pro-rated over final 10 years of the contract ($3M/year) for purposes of calculating Competitive Balance Tax.
Why are the Yanks trading Stanton again? Just because he didn’t hit 60 homeruns hadn’t caused buyer’s remorse from the front office. Most of my fellow Yankee fans are delusional to think they can’t have Harper AND Stanton if they were interested. Anyone disappointed with 34 dbls and 38 hrs just isn’t appreciative of how good that is.
I doubt the Nats are done. They could use another top pitcher. I would like to see them trade for Corey Kluber. That would give the A nice top 4. Nats need a 2nd baseman too.
Kluber a Cy young winner. Healthy. Making 70% of Patrick Corbin.
Indians would expect back one of Soto or Robles. Then add in 2 major league ready prospects – including at least one pitcher – which it appears the Nationals don’t even have.
The Nationals are almost as bad a trading partner as the Phils, that have only major league garbage and overrated prospects to offer in trade.
Nationals need to stick with what they do best – overpay for free agents.
Not so sure I agree with that. I think the Nats and Indians actually match up pretty well.
Kluber for one of Soto or Robles; Kieboom, and either Barraclough or Reid Schaller is a deal I think both sides would make.
Tribe gets their OF, a C, which is now a big black hole for CLE, and either a MLB bullpen piece, or pitching prospect. Nats would be downright scary in the NL with that rotation.
The Nats aren’t going to trade Soto or Robles for Kluber, much less include Kieboom and more… I’d suggest Kieboom as the centerpiece and a couple other lesser pieces would probably be the top of the market.
Then the Nats don’t get Kluber.
I’m not a Nats fan, I’m a Cubs fan, but I think you’re wrong. The reality is that those kind of packages haven’t happened for players, especially pitchers. That would be a huge package. I don’t even think its close. No one will give them that. I’m not sure if any other contender even has that.
lol the Phillies prospects are overrated? please tell me more. i’d put their farm up against 95% of the other team’s.
Lawson and Torrens for Gray.
My response. Quantrill and Naylor!
Billy I like your Ideas for Grienke better, and anyone bringing up the anxiety issue…one you don’t know what Grienke wants now, two the meds he’s on to help with his condition
Jose Pirela for Andujar and Torres
Switch Lawson with Miguel Diaz and you have a deal.
Man, I think you guys are going to be disappointed by the return for Gray. There are plenty of teams interested because the price is going to be low. I’d be surprised if the return included ONE of the trading teams top 10 prospects. He’s not going to bring anything of value.
I highly doubt it includes any 50FV or higher prospect according to the MLB Pipeline gradings.
For the Padres, Lawson, who is their #21 prospect and a 45FV, would be about the best the Yankees are going to get.
For most other teams that level of prospect would be in the 10-15 range in their system. For some teams like the Mariners before the trades this offseason, the Giants, and the Brewers, a prospect at the same quality as the Padres’ Lawson would be as high as a #6 or #7. So it’s relative.
Doubt Lawson would be anywhere near 6 or 7 in either of those systems. True both of them have far less 50FV players than SD, but that doesn’t mean he’d pencil in above all of their 45s (and lets not forget that he’s coming of a pretty up and down season where many scouts have now projected him as a bullpen arm or back of the rotation at best and ratings have not been updated for 2019 yet). In SF system I would think he would be somewhere near the group of Adon/Williams/Wong in the late teens and in the Brewers probably in the mid-teens along side Houser/Ashby/Lemens.
That being said, I completely agree that he’s about the range of what you could expect in return for Gray. With a lottery ticket or two thrown in of course.
Mebbe whyPhils set limits on Corbin. Were in discussions with Cle over Carrasco but a week ago. We can offer affordable starters who have hit over .300 b4 in Hernandez and Herrera AND top 10 team prospects that are pitchers FOR a trade like this. Even if a Sanchez or Medina…itll,reputation,eating wise equal most other offers. I love it. They won’t trade any to the A.L.,to haunt them. This could be very interesting. Mebbe the old catcher and the hirt,older 3rd baseman signed first become the AFTERTHOUGHT of the trade market b4 too long.Hope Klentak is awake
“……Hernandez and Herrera……”
lol
Why in heavens name would the Indians want overpriced garbage like that for a quality starter – which are in short supply around MLB?
It’s the Indians front office that is smart and successful. The Phil’s FO is mediocre. Four years of a rebuild and two players developed – Hoskins and Nola……….and I don’t see anything special about Hoskins…..not exactly putting up gaudy numbers playing in a Little League park.
Continue doing what you do best – overpaying for free agents and taking on salary in trade. And when the money runs out you’ll find that you’re back to where Rubén left you. Matthew Klentak is not exactly Lawrence Patrick David Gillick.
P.S. This Phillies “rebuild” is the most overhyped I’ve seen in years. Just pathetic.
” …. don’t believe in the Phils rebuild ….”
Herrera, Hernandez and Eflin for Carrasco and Kipnis is a realistic exchange and if the Indians decide to move Carrasco and get someone to take Kipnis’ remaining contract, the deal will look something like that, your rather long-winded pronouncement notwithstanding.
(referencing your “lol”, guys who use this don’t come across as particularly masculine; that market is cornered by middle school girls)
For real. They would do good to operate like Cleveland and win a World Series. Oh wait, my bad. When is the last time the Indians won a WS? I thought so. Sit down and keep quiet kid.
Hey slick…….
The Indians got to the WS on a fraction of the budget the Phil’s have.
While I see a 4th place finish for the Phil’s in 2019, I do believe they’ll lead the NL East in disgruntled veteran players; along with the ensuing soap opera pub. You got that going for you.
Says the fan of the losingest team in professional sports history. Cleveland still ten years later hasn’t spent as much in a season as Philadelphia did.
Eugenio Suarez and Scooter Gennett for Kipnis and Kluber. Reds offense and defense can live with Kipnis at 2B and Senzel gets to play his natural position at 3B.
That is absolutely ridiculous.
The Yankees could most certainly find a place for 2B — Jason Kipnis if eating his contract helped facilitate a trade for Kluber since it is for only one year and Didi will be out more than half of it.
Just what exactly do the Rays have at/near the MLB level that fit the requirements set forth by Mets in order to trade Thor? He was never going anywhere for lower level prospects.
Being a previous Met fan in attendance for Tom Seaver day in 78-79. and now a Rays fan. I don’t believe the Mets will trade Thor. The Rays only need a very good front line pitcher for 1 year only so I don’t beleive they line up. However if curious . Our minors can offer LHP Anthony Banda # 35 baseball america), OF Jesus Sanchez (BA# 43 rated) 2b Nick Solak, 58 and ss Lucius Fox#85.are excellent prospects the Mets possibly could trade since they are redundant talent within our system. Brett Honeywell and Wanda Franco are our best prospects and won’t be traded but i’m sure the Mets are asking for them.
My main concern with Haniger is the limited track record in the MLB. 2018 was very good season, but only his first full season in the Bigs.
I want to see Haniger traded, just because of the prospect haul he’d command. I hate the thought of it because he’s quickly become one of the most enjoyable guys to root for, as a Mariners fan. But to say that he’s not going to be attached to Seager? I’ll believe it when I see it (or don’t see it). See: Diaz, Edwin.
MIL: D. Santana, B. Woodruff, T. Williams, E. Thames, M. Dubon
CLE: C. Kluber, J. Kipnis
Would give the Brewers a TOR arm and a temporary 2B while Hiura gets more work in the minors. Indians get nice ML ready prospects, a young bullpen arm, and a LH power hitter off the bench
No thank you. Williams and Thames do little and I don’t see Cleveland trying to pair Kipnis with Kluber in a trade. I would be very disappointed if they do that. I think the Indians Front Office is smarter than that.
Yeah, Kluber is not going for any team’s spare parts.
While I understand it might take more to get Kluber, but paired with Kipnis it would diminish the cost. Thames and maybe Santana are the only ones that could be considered a “spare part”, and Santana would start on most ML teams. Woodruff is a former T100 prospect who was stellar for the Brewers in the post season. Dubon is an up and coming IF prospect who would have probably played for the Brewers if he hadn’t torn his ACL in April and Williams will be a 6/7th inning reliever for the Brewers next year in a stacked bullpen.
I actually quite like Woodruff. But you need a frontline player to get Kluber or they’re not trading him. That player’s not in there.
Santana and Thames have VERY limited trade value, if any at all, being power corner guys who play bad defense and stirke out too often. We’ve seen the value of those types of players plummet over the last couple off-seasons and they can be signed for next to nothing on the open market. Williams is a MLB average bullpen arm, Dubon is a good fielder up the middle, but does not hit for power, takes too few walks, and his numbers last season are inflated due to playing in Colorado Springs. Plus he’s coming of an ACL that’s not back to 100% yet.
No way that would be enough to get Kluber back, even with eating salary along with him.
A top 100 prospect gets you nothing. Start the bidding for Kluber with a top 10 prospect and a good young ballplayer you might have something. Woodruff had a 361 era last year. while alright not great. Why would Cleveland give up a Cy Young level pitcher when the main guy their getting back slots in as a 4 on their pitching staff.
It’s too bad the Twins are in the same division as the Indians otherwise they would be the perfect trade partner for Kluber, they could take the Kipnis contract, they need the starting pitcher and they have prospects to bargain with.
Kluber and Kipnis to the Dodgers for puig, Wood, will Smith and Verdugo. Indians save roughly $17m and Dodgers get a compliment for Buehler and Kershaw.
Don’t see Cleveland pairing Kipnis with Kluber. The Indians front office is smarter than that. I also don’t see the Indians wanting Wood or Puig. Wood is too costly and Puig is too costly and a headcase.
mets are going for it this year.. trading away Thor wouldn’t make sense..
Says the fan of the losingest team in professional sports history. Cleveland still ten years later hasn’t spent as much in a season as Philadelphia did.
It would if you get Max value for him with comparable players in free agency.
Seager will have a bounce back year- I predict .260/ 30 Hrs/ 100 Rbi’s
What metric or stat are you going off to project that?
He has been in a sharp decline the last 3 seasons. I don’t see why you are so confident in that statement.
Steamer projects him at .241/24HRs/79RBIs, and 2.6fWAR for 2019 which puts him in the top half of the league at 3B.
I think last year was a down year, K% was way up and BB% was way down compared to career averages. If that somewhat regresses to the mean, he’s only 31 so he’s got a good shot to continue to be a serviceable 3ish WAR player for the next few years.
What kind of prospect does sonny gray get in return?
A 45 FV prospect as the headliner and a lottery ticket prospect.
I see more logic in Preller trading for Gray, than I do with him signing Gonzalez for just about any amount of money. I understand he’s an innings eater, but he is NOT someone you pay to put on top of your rotation. THATS DUMB!