All eyes will be on baseball’s two biggest free agents as the Winter Meetings begin, as both Bryce Harper and Manny Machado are poised to land record-setting contracts, each likely to surpass Giancarlo Stanton’s $325MM pact. With both players vying for such a landmark deal, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (subscription required) notes that super-agents Scott Boras and Dan Lozano of the MVP Sports Group will again be squaring off, with Boras representing Harper and Lozano representing Machado. The two agents have often competed for teams’ dollars and even for clients, including Machado himself — the star infielder was originally represented by Boras before hiring Lozano in 2011. The thought is that Boras will want Machado to sign first in order to fully establish Harper’s market, and to provide a specific dollar amount to shoot for in order to land Harper the biggest contract ever. That said, one agent believes “it’s Philly bidding against Philly” in terms of the Harper market, whereas at least six teams may be in on Machado. Beyond the Phillies, White Sox, and Yankees, Rosenthal reports (via Twitter) that three more teams will meet with Lozano during the Winter Meetings about Machado, as per a rival executive.
Here’s more on the Harper and Machado sweepstakes…
- While the Yankees have interest in Machado, Fancred Sports’ Jon Heyman (Twitter link) hears from a source that the team isn’t willing to pay more than $300MM to sign him. MLBTR projected a much higher price point for Machado, predicting a $390MM contract for the infielder, even with the spectre of Machado’s “Johnny Hustle” comments and his sometimes-infamous reputation for dirty play hanging over him. These factors led Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner to recently state that he would require a face-to-face meeting with Machado before the team considered a signing. If New York isn’t going to move past $300MM, however, one would think the club is simply going to be outbid, perhaps significantly.
- In regards to Machado, Joel Sherman of the New York Post wonders if the Yankees are hesitant to dive into another hugely expensive long-term contract with a player, just a year removed from their acquisition of Stanton. The slugger’s numbers in his first season as a Yankees (38 homers and a .266/.343/.509 slash line over 705 PA) were seen as disappointing by Stanton’s standards, leaving Sherman to speculate that the Yankees could have some second thoughts about last winter’s trade with the Marlins. Perhaps more tellingly, the Yankees haven’t yet shown a willingness to go beyond their comfort zones in bids for free agents this season, as the team wasn’t willing to give either Patrick Corbin or Nathan Eovaldi an extra year in contract offers.
- Several teams have already met with Harper and his team in private meetings in at a Las Vegas hotel, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale provides a look inside the general format of these gatherings. Front office representatives (and, sometimes, the owner) from various clubs meet with Harper, his wife Kayla, and Boras to discuss all aspects of a potential signing, first in the form of a lengthy presentation from the team, and then rounds of questions from the Harpers about everything from baseball-related matters to how a club accommodates a player’s family. The meetings have ranged from five to 10 hours in length, with Boras providing business-related details and one of his famous notebooks of statistics and personal information outlining his clients’ strong points. In Harper’s case, the notebook is 118 pages long, comparing him to all-time greats in both baseball and other sports (i.e. LeBron James) while also focusing on how acquiring Harper can improve a franchise’s overall value. “Every GM in baseball wants him because he fills a need, but the owners are pursuing Bryce Harper because they know he can also make them a billion dollars over a period of years,” Boras said. Interestingly, Boras said that one team owner has been discussing Harper without his GM’s knowledge, a new wrinkle to Boras’ known strategy of bypassing a front office to negotiate directly with ownership about his biggest clients.
Z-A 2
If the Phil’s landed Machado… plays 3rd 1 season, they go big for Arenado next year and push Segura over to 2nd. Kingery to the OF.
Houston We Have A Solution
So what do they do with Franco who isn’t a FA till after 2021.
theroyal19
DFA Franco
the kutch
Get a bag of balls for Franco
T_Rexx2
*half a bag
Z-A 2
Trade him and Hernandez
Marc (Phillies Phan)
Franco has some value. Not a lot, but he is a nice player in a deal. Yes, I watched them for the past 30 years and I am still saying this. He is not a “trade for a bag of balls guy” but you won’t get Trout for him LOL. He is young and I could go into 2018 with or without him.
He MAY be something someone needs – but a nice fit for someone we would want escapes me. All of the obvious teams are not tearing down and all of the teams who have something (Giants for example) don’t need 3B.
bucketbrew35
Padres are still the most logical fit for Franco. I have a feeling he is going to break out as a player shortly after being traded though.
Ejemp2006
Everyone talks about NY chewing players up and spitting them out but I’d say that Philly can be even worse. Philly fans are crazy about their sports. Its gotta be hard to survive there after a few days in a row with a stat sheet reading 0 for 4. Franco has a ton of untapped potential. I wonder what he could become in a city like San Diego where the pressure isn’t necessarily to high.
Keith Morehart
Him and Nick Williams are great off-the-bench guys and with the right mixture in the clubhouse could help to build a fun roster. He certain has some value, but I would prefer him not be an everyday starter again.
jim stem
I think the Mets should be all over Franco. Phillie fans are brutal in their couch expectations. He is young, he has a solid run production rate, plays solid (sometimes spectacular) defense…and playing anywhere other than Philadelphia would be easy. Let him be a number 6 hitter and leave him alone. Todd Frazier and Seth Lugo for Franco wouldn’t make me cry.
DannyQ3913
They’ve been trying to trade Franco for 6 months
modifish
Phils can use Machado at SS this season by moving Cesar, utilizing Segura at 2B and keeping Franco at 3rd. Franco is ready for a breakout year and even if his production remains about the same, it’s fine. The Phillies won a WS with Pedro Feliz at third…not everyone needs to be a superstar…
Rumncoke
Waste of money for one player.
dray16
No
dimitrios in la
Absolutely terrible to sign either player. Could hamper a franchise for a generation. Neither Machado nor Harper checks all the boxes that their projected salaries should demand. Regardless, the market for both is a very small one.
pasha2k
Eovaldi was never gonna consider the Evil Empire to sign with. It always was the Redsox, Redsox Nation loves him an is very happy he’ll call Boston home.
raffi
You do realize that he pitched for the yankees.
Willy Mays
The name evil empire came about because the Yanks spent more money than anyone else. Last year Boston had a 240 million dollar payroll and it’s going up this year. Boston is now the evil empire.
MetsYankeesRedSox
Winning!
swanhenge
You had a perfect to chance to use the word “ergo” and you blew it.
Pedro Cerrano's Voodoo
1 year at the top of that list and script is flipped huh?
bravesfan
In all honesty, eff it. Just go for it yanks. Heck grab both Harper and Machado. Evil empire for a reason… that would be a insane team. Still need pitching though …
HubcapDiamondStarHalo
I was kidding with a buddy of mine about that. He said, “You hate the Yankees… Why would you want that to happen?” I told him truthfully that my appreciation of the absurd would be appeased with a team paying a billion dollars for three players…
Kenleyfornia74
It would be very disappointing if the only things that go on at the winter meetings are a guy holding a sign that says “No Machado” and a guy holding a dog.
sufferforsnakes
Your last bit made me think of an old Tubes song, What Do You Want From Life.
hockeyjohn
So true. Great song!
Cat Mando
a Winnebago–Hell, a herd of Winnebago’s we’re giving ’em away,
mike156
My favorite part of the post season is listening to Boras define his client…”every team wants him…” “billions of dollars”
baseball365
This is a once-in-a-lifetime “franchise” player. Until one of his clients in 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, etc, etc…
Yawn
baseball365
A theory that has yet to be floated is the well known “shiny object syndrome” and if I were a team owner, I would be extremely reluctant to hand out a big dollar long-term contract. There will be another superstar in two years, four years, etc. Machado or Harper will inevitably be injured at some point, as is to be expected from any player. Who knows the type of injury, etc. I never wish that of any player, but it’s prudent for these owners to pause a little with the next steps. If I were an owner I would not want to hear the fan backlashed in 4 or 5 years if said player is injured and can’t play with another 8-10 years on the contract.
I actually consider this the peak and crest of free agent sports history. As it’s been written for years, two 26 year old marquee players being free agents. The likelihood of that happening again is extremely limited. There is a compelling argument to be made that there may never be another player or set of players that will command $300M+ contracts. Who knows what the future holds, but I think most fans are sensitive to this and in some ways, signing either to 10 years + could be debilitating to any organization. I thought about most players in the league and I truly have a hard time forecasting another perfect storm of age and production. Mookie Betts? I honestly don’t think he would break $200M in free agency. Maybe $27M a year for 7 years.
Machado likely holds up better over the next 10 years in my opinion. I think Harper fits really well on the Yankees too, but they just can’t stomach another 10+ year contract like that in the OF.
I really think many of us are going to be surprised by the outcome of these players in the coming week or two. I genuinely believe they will not receive the contracts many initially thought they would.
allthesingledigitsgone
You are right but you are also wrong. The contract are never good in the end but they will get them anyway. A team like the Yankees has to decide if it’s worth possibly winning 1-3 championships in the next 5 years and be strapped with those contracts for the following 5 years. As a fan I want that every time this is their window
baseball365
Stanton is the best case and point of what I am referring too. The dude had a tremendous year his first year in Pinstripes. Many don’t see it like that, but he had a great year. For about $22M a year. Yet fans from the Yankees and beyond had him strapped to the gurney and ready for the guillotine. And people like Stanton. Good God could you imagine with Harper or Machado, two players many fans “don’t like” and a 14 year contract. Facepalm!!
zpgreen
That is all well and good, but then fans should be willing to tolerate the 5 year or longer rebuilds on the back end that inevitably end up happening because of these crippling deals. Maybe not the Yankees, but at least 80% or more of the league can’t rationalize these types of deals to the common fan. Short sightedness on immediate gains and forsaking long term consequences is the reason for many of the world’s problems.
baseball365
Bingo. Nice dude. Your brain works. As mine does. Be proud of that.
MetsYankeesRedSox
Cubs rebuilds last 100 years.
Anything less is tolerable.
allweatherfan
Machado to Phillies, Harper to the Dodgers.
Cuso
Yeah, probably so
DrCox
Yankees will sign Happ, Lynn, D-Rob, Miller and trade for Gennett. No Machado or Harper.
Dicka24
I might be in the minority but I wouldn’t give either player $300+ million. I think they’re both talented guys, and I’d love to have them, but the money is simply absurd. I’d much prefer to see the Yankees invest that money in keeping their young players with extensions, and focusing resources on pitching. Overpay on bullpen help on shorter term deals (Andrew Miller comes to mind), and use their financial might to absorb a bad contract in order to acquire a desirable player. Sort of like what the Mets did with the Diaz/Cano deal (generally speaking). For example, take on Kipnis’ $17m in order to lower the cost of acquiring Kluber. Machado & Harper are great, but those monster contracts almost never pan out.
zpgreen
This is what the NBA does with expiring contracts and draft picks. I could easily see the CBA shifting away from the recent trajectory during the next negotiations as the paydays are getting outrageous. NBA contracts are still mostly guaranteed, but nothing longer than 5 years I think on max and super max deals. And the NFL can have longer contracts like MLB, but most deals have much less guarantees. I highly doubt the players union will allow the owners to not have non guaranteed contracts, but maybe they start capping certain types of deals and move somewhere in between what the NBA, MLB and NFL have? Otherwise they are going to have to come up with an entirely new compensation structure because the last off-season showed that player compensation is getting it of hand and that ownership revenue and star player contracts are not moving proportionately in the owners’ eyes.
astrosfan4life
The teams that give these two guys contracts will regret them within 3 years. Both are extremely over-hyped and will be grossly overpaid. Good for them though, take every penny some rich old fool is willing to give.
zpgreen
Boras has a few clients last year end up getting nowhere near what was projected or expected. The post claims Boras wants to wait until Machado to sign to develop Harper’s market, but I wonder if he has given any thought to trying to strike his deal first in the event that Machado doesn’t get what is projected or expected and what that could mean for Harper’s resulting market. Cubs can’t afford Harper and Yankees have a stacked outfield that seems unlikely to add Harper, so it might indeed just be Philly bidding against themselves.
Chromimw
Don’t sleep on the Cards to make a move for Harper as well…
dray16
Harper is going to STL
cards 82
They might as well, I doubt they have Goldy for more that one year.
Marc (Phillies Phan)
I won’t sleep on the Red Birds, but I would still be surprised if they signed Harper. Nice baseball fans (mostly), nice park, but they have to pony up huge and I have not seen that from them.
Not counting them out, but I would be surprised.
Cardinals17
Nelly has secured Harper going to the Cardinals. He guaranteed it.
Dennid
I may have read over someone else’s comment but what are the odds Harper signs for much less than 10 years?
bernbabybern
Zero.
Marc (Phillies Phan)
Zero, agreed. Unfortunately the Phillies will see to that (I am NOT saying they will land him) and the Nats already offered him 10 years (though I think that may be gone).
dcrising
I actually don’t think it’s as crazy. He may get 10 years $350m ($35m AAV) but if he doesn’t get that, he may look at lowering the years to say 4 years $160m ($42m AAV) and he re-enters free agency again when he’s just turning 30 years old.
User 4245925809
NY might be playing a smart end game here, looking for the prize at the end of the 2019 season.. being 1 Mike Trout who reaches FA.
Does anyone really think he’s going to sign another deal to stay in LA when it’s known he wants to win? Why should Cashman give Harper, or especially machodo 300m when Trout could just possibly be had for probably the same, or 50-100m more over the same 10y term for a FAR superior player to both.
Everyone knows Boston isn’t going allow Betts to walk away after 2020 know matter how much it costs and Trout is the same type player. Why wouldn’t the Yankees plan ahead for 1 of the top 2 players in the game still young enough then to have at least half a dozen more impact seasons?
zpgreen
If I were a Yankee fan, I would be desperately hoping the Phillies sign Harper this year so that your theory can have even more weight to it. It is known that Trout grew up a Philly fan and in multiple interviews has stated he always wanted to grow up and play for his favorite team (Phillies). If the Phillies get Harper this year, it would almost assuredly take them out of the Trout sweepstakes if Trout chooses to leave SoCal. Although I have read rumblings that Trout truly enjoys SoCal and that if the Angels play their cards just right, they have a decent shot to make him an Angel for life.
Marc (Phillies Phan)
I will take my down votes here LOL.
I will go on record and say this now: I think the Phillies know about Mike Trout and are going to NOT spend stupidly. I also think the Phillies could afford Harper and Trout but not Harper, Machado and Trout and be competitive as too many other hold would develop.
I would rather be a .500 team anyway for 2019 and try to trade for Trout in a year (if the Angels do not show they will make the playoffs) then bid for him in two years. Prepare this year to build around him.
I also DO think the Angels could make him an Angel for life, but they HAVE to win something first. Not sure they can beat the Astros or A’s in his tenure – and the AL Central will be better in 2019 and 2020 for a second wild card challenge. Going to be tough.
Vogt83
Signing Harper DOES NOT take the Phillies out of the Trout conversation at all! Lol. Trout will NEVER be a Yankee. He will either be an Angel for life or go home to Philly. End of story.
pplama
Trout isn’t a FA after ’19.
Marc (Phillies Phan)
Correct, after 2020.
baseball365
Still has two more years I believe and will be approaching 30 a few months after opening day. He will get a big contract, of course, but the parameters will be entirely different of what we’re talking about with these guys.
Marc (Phillies Phan)
baseball365 – correct. I think his AAV will be higher than Harper and Machado, but not his years. They will get 10+. He may get 5-6 only. Who knows though.
montana blue
I wouldn’t even try and guess for how much money but Harper signs with the Dodgers, bank on it.
Pax vobiscum
Phillies will not sign either Harper or Machado with a promise to the fans that the 2019 draft is not chopped liver.
citizen
Not a day goes by without Corbin’s name being mentioned on mlbtr, even though the pitcher was signed long ago.
eric7064
I think we will continue to see the trend of early opt out clauses in these contracts.
Harper and Macahdo I think will both have crazy contract conditions that allow an opt-out every other year. Possibly hitting the market again at 28, 30, 32 etc.
Plus its nice to have in a players back pocket JUST in case they dont like the situation they are in. Early opt outs are becoming a trend.
strat1956
Yankees should Trade Stanton to the Phillies and go after Harper. He is perfect for Yankee stadium.
jimbo504 2
Why would Stanton waive his NTC to go to Philly?
cheesesteaks
the real question is why would the phillies trade anything for anyone when they can just sign harper lol.
Marc (Phillies Phan)
No, why would the Phiilles want to take on that contract?
ScottRolen
Harper plays CF so the Phillies could do that, but Stanton is a whiff machine.
Wait on Trout.
Bryce and Manny for the first trophy, those two plus Trout for the second.
zpgreen
Harper doesn’t play CF anymore unless it’s an emergency. He did earlier in his career Before he ran into the wall full speed a hundred times and turned his legs into mashed potatoes. He might not even be long for RF anymore the way some reports are stating.
Also, why don’t the Phillies sign the ghost of Babe Ruth since we are making up hypotheticals such as signing Machado, Harper and Trout.
stratcrowder
Harper is staying in DC, Machado to the Phillies.
rmullig2
Stanton had a 4 WAR in his down year. I doubt the Yankees regret the trade. Sherman is talking out of his rear as usual.
ScottRolen
Bryce Harper and Manny Machado.
Teammates in 2019.
Bryzzo2016
Harper to the Yanks, Machado to the Phillies. No sources, no “inside” info. Just a random prediction from a fan…. but these comments are entertaining, might be more entertaining than next week. A lot of tough guys hiding behind their keyboards, haha.
ccsilvia
I know batting average isn’t the end and be all, but all of this bravado for a true corner outfielder who hit under 250 last year? More chum before Trout…
xabial
What’d I do wrong.. sigh. Why not delete nasty replies. You’re indirectly letting the trolls win.
“Harper to NYY, Machado to Phillies.” I’m sticking to it.
InvalidUserID
Hal isn’t George. The old opulent Yankees are gone, these are now Hal’s just-enough-to-keep-fans-interested Yankees. He knows he can’t let them be bad or even mediocre or the cash doesn’t come in but he isn’t going to pour everything into the team.
thegreatcerealfamine
Excellent take on the way the Yankees are now doing business. Goal, acquire enough to keep the team in the conversation, but when things go south just blame the manager.
JFactor
What does everyone project the probability for Harper and each team?
Dodgers 50
Phillies 15
Nationals 5
Yankees 5
Cards 5
White Sox 5
Cubs 5
Giants 5
The field – 5
Just trying to get a sense of what others think
zpgreen
Phillies 30
Yankees 20
Nationals 20
Cubs 15
Cards 10
Field 5
Marc (Phillies Phan)
Dodgers 60%
Yankees 30%
Cardinals 5%
Nats 1%
Other team 4%
Matfactor2
Harper to the Reds.
Melchez
In order to save the luxury tax hit, why not offer Harper a 20 year deal that is heavily front loaded? Like the last 10 years at a half mil a year. Instead of $400 mil for 10 years, have it $400 mil for 20 with an opt out after 9? He’d be 35 and maybe he could sign somewhere else for more than the remainder of the contract so he leaves after 9?
BW1
Love the creativity!
Cardinals17
Lance Bergman should get into the Hall of Fame at some point. His drastically are good enough and his presence in the clubhouse was second to none. A true leader on and off the field!!!!
Jimcarlo Slaton
I picture Berkman’s clubhouse presence as a preachy one, about you know what.
bradthebluefish
Still waiting for an actual offer.
ullnvrknw
The Yankees spend money on keuchel, bring back miller and sign arenado next year
ullnvrknw
The only way Harper is on the Yankees this year is if they have a trade for Stanton
crisowen
machado’s dirty playing I would think would lower his worth, I would hate having someone playing like that on my team, besides that I would think that type of player would put a “stench” in the team spirit
citizen
If george steinbrenner was still around, the yankees would have been all over harper or machado.
But no longer the big yankees contracts yet with hank and hal.
Harper to the cubs, 5 years 150 mil.
ken48tribe
If Harper and Machado are the bright shiny objects this year, what will Arenado get for a contract next year, assuming he becomes a free agent at the end of 19? He may well blow past the AAV that Harper and Machado sign for.