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Which Draft Picks Each Team Would Lose By Signing A Qualified Free Agent

By Tim Dierkes | November 15, 2018 at 12:54pm CDT

Bryce Harper, Patrick Corbin, Dallas Keuchel, Craig Kimbrel, Yasmani Grandal, and A.J. Pollock were the six free agents this year to receive and turn down a one-year, $17.9MM qualifying offer from their teams this month.  If those players sign elsewhere, here’s a look at the draft picks the signing team would lose.

Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Red Sox, Nationals

If either of these teams signs a qualified free agent from another team, it must forfeit its second-highest and fifth-highest pick in the 2019 draft. The team will also have its international signing bonus pool reduced by $1MM.  Both teams could plausibly sign a qualified free agent, though it’s probably more likely for the Nationals.

Revenue Sharing Recipients:  Diamondbacks, Braves, Orioles, Reds, Indians, Rockies, Tigers, Royals, Marlins, Brewers, Twins, Athletics, Pirates, Padres, Mariners, Rays

These 16 teams received revenue sharing and did not exceed the competitive balance tax. If one of these teams signs a qualified free agent, it forfeits its third-highest pick. These teams face the smallest draft pick penalty.

All Other Clubs: Cubs, White Sox, Astros, Dodgers, Angels, Mets, Yankees, Phillies, Giants, Cardinals, Rangers, Blue Jays

These 12 remaining teams would forfeit their second-highest pick and and have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500K. The penalty is something of a middle ground, but it would sting for a team like the White Sox to sacrifice a pick in the 40s.

What happens if a team signs two of these six free agents? The CBA calls for forfeiture of the next highest available draft pick. For example, if a team has already lost its second and fifth-highest picks and it signs a second qualified free agent, it would lose its third and sixth-highest picks. So as in the past, if you’ve already signed one qualified free agent, the draft pick cost to sign another is reduced.

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2018-19 MLB Free Agents 2019 Amateur Draft MLBTR Originals

MLB, Fox Sports Reach Reported $5.1 Billion Rights Agreement
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Examining Draft Pick Compensation For The 5 Teams That Could Lose Qualified Free Agents
View Comments (32)
Post a Comment

32 Comments

  1. jordan4giants 2

    7 years ago

    Does the lost international pool money go to the team that lost the player, or is the money just gone?

    Reply
    • RunDMC

      7 years ago

      I believe it’s just the ability to spend on international free agents – it’s a lost opportunity. They should not have lost the money and should be able to reallocate to other areas (i.e. better Christmas bonuses from The Angeloses).

      4
      Reply
    • Steve Adams

      7 years ago

      The money does not go to the former team, no. The signing team’s pool is simply reduced by that $500K or $1MM.

      To further clarify, there’s no actual loss of money. International bonus slots are not actual monetary assets. They merely represent that team’s right to spend that level of its own resources on international amateurs.

      6
      Reply
    • Sk8rboi

      7 years ago

      They probably give it to the owners to pocket tax free that way their internation money becomes regular money. Its based on a technicality that nobody could prove. The money just mysteriously vanishes. If you don’t believe me, ask Giorgo Tsoukalos…aliens…

      Reply
      • frontdeskmike

        7 years ago

        Is that you, Alex Jones?

        2
        Reply
    • Skin Blues

      7 years ago

      The pool money is the same for each slot, regardless who has the picks. So the bonus pool money “lost” by a team that signs a free agent is spread out throughout the rest of the league. So if the team with the 50th pick with a $1.5M slot value signs a player that causes them to forfeit that pick, then the team with the 51st pick with $1.4M slot value moves up to the 50th spot and gains $100K in slot money, and so on, down the line. It’s a zero-sum game, essentially.

      Reply
  2. Sk8rboi

    7 years ago

    This is why the Rays always seem to have great young players. They don’t sign free agents so they keep their picks and draft well. They just cannot afford to keep their good draft picks. Seems like and endless cycle. Kudos to Big Sexy Kevin Cash for coming up with the idea of bullpenning in order to remain competitive with the bargain bin/homegrown talent.

    1
    Reply
    • downsr30

      7 years ago

      And also because they can’t afford to sign big time free agents, therefore the only way they can ever expect to compete is if they hoard prospects and make sure they don’t miss when making trades.

      Reply
      • Sk8rboi

        7 years ago

        Phamm should work out for a couple years and I believe in Austin Meadows.

        1
        Reply
    • Yankeefan24

      7 years ago

      Do you mean to tell me… a small market team… can remain competitive… if they draft well? Wow. Mind = blown.

      Be careful with your keyboard. It must be burning up after that hot take.

      1
      Reply
      • Sk8rboi

        7 years ago

        Yeah you bet. I make good money working as an ESPN columnist. Dont burn too many brain cells thinking of an original username btw.

        3
        Reply
        • Yankeefan24

          7 years ago

          Thanks! Don’t burn too many Avril CDs thinking of yours

          4
          Reply
        • Sk8rboi

          7 years ago

          Do you even SK8???

          1
          Reply
        • Yankeefan24

          7 years ago

          Bro.. why you gotta go and make things so complicated?

          5
          Reply
        • Sk8rboi

          7 years ago

          Sorry Sir yankeefan24 but I had to report you for knowing too many Avril Lavigne song lyrics. We talk about baseball on this forum. I am sure you can find another site that talks about teen angst. Here is a link.

          mlb.com/yankees

          6
          Reply
        • jorge78

          7 years ago

          Children…..enough!

          Reply
        • callingoutdummies247

          7 years ago

          Says the guy using “Boi”

          2
          Reply
    • costergaard2

      7 years ago

      I’m cool with Melvin as Manager of the Year, his second half was epic, but mad respect to Cash for getting 90 wins from a team that traded away talent and played NY and Bos 40 times. The “opener” will revolutionize baseball. Why pay Price $30mm a year for 6 innings once a week when $30mm could buy a small army of dudes to pitch more often…

      Reply
      • Sk8rboi

        7 years ago

        Big Sexy starting the bullpenning is the New World Order of Baseball Brother

        Reply
  3. pinballwizard1969

    7 years ago

    “What happens if a team signs two of these nine free agents?” Am I missing something or someone, I only see 6 FA’s listed NOT 9.

    Reply
    • Tim Dierkes

      7 years ago

      Thanks, fixed.

      1
      Reply
  4. Happy2Engage

    7 years ago

    MLB revenue sharing, aka how rich guys do socialism.

    4
    Reply
  5. Phanatic 2022

    7 years ago

    How are the revenue sharing teams chosen? Is it total revenue? NOI? Profit? What exactly is taken into account?

    Reply
    • snotrocket

      7 years ago

      Probably the same commie logic that comes to the conclusion that the Cardinals deserve a competitive balance draft pick.

      3
      Reply
    • HalosHeavenJJ

      7 years ago

      Great question that I’d love MLBTR’s great team to answer clearly some day.

      I don’t get the Cardinals getting bonus picks, either. They aren’t who I think of when I think “small market.”

      3
      Reply
      • jkoch717

        7 years ago

        Clearly you’ve never been to St. Louis before. It’s a pretty small market, even when adding the Illinois side of the metro area.

        Reply
      • jkoch717

        7 years ago

        Clearly you’ve never been to St. Louis before. It’s a small market, even adding in the Illinois side of the metro area.

        Reply
        • jlm7552

          7 years ago

          St Louis metro itself is small, and that’s what MLB takes into account when it assigns the competitive balance picks. They don’t look at the Cardinals having one of the best traveling fan bases in baseball and draw 3mil + every year, just the metro population.

          Reply
  6. jkoch717

    7 years ago

    The new forfeit rules for draft picks is a little confusing. The Red Sox and Nats would forfeit two additional picks for signing two players? The Rays would forfeit their 4th highest and the Cardinals their third highest?

    Reply
  7. cxcx

    7 years ago

    First sentence has a “this year…this month”… not good.

    Which international period money does the team forfeit? I’m guessing 19-20 but these articles never say.

    What if Sox or Nats sign their own player, do they forfeit picks for that? I kind of know that they don’t, but article should say.

    White Sox losing a forty-somethingeth pick might sting but not really anywhere even vaguely close to as bad as Rockies with Desmond or Mets with Cuddyer.

    1
    Reply
    • Benjamin Chase

      7 years ago

      Holy heck, man. If you dislike the site so badly, don’t visit. Otherwise, apply when they post an opening so it’s your content being judged alongside.

      Reply
  8. Dad

    7 years ago

    This crap is to confusing..Put in a salary cap, and a salary FLOOR . The international signing pool needs some work too,The good international players shouldn’t automatically go to the best teams.While they are at it the players are getting screwed with the amount of time the Teams can control them. This arbitration time needs to be moved up for the players to get paid before they get to old to get a decent contract

    Reply

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