As part of their talks with the Mariners regarding reliever Edwin Diaz, the Phillies have also shown interest in shortstop Jean Segura, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). While it seems Diaz is set to be sent elsewhere, there’s no reason that the clubs could not continue to discuss scenarios involving Segura.
The Phils entered the offseason with an obvious need at shortstop. While two oft-lauded prospects combined to see much of the action there in 2018, neither Scott Kingery nor J.P. Crawford has established himself as anything approaching a high-quality regular.
As the Mariners reposition their roster for the future, they seem to be moving rather swiftly down the line of major contracts and quality MLB assets. Segura comes with both, as he’s owed another $58MM through the 2022 campaign (including a buyout on a 2023 option) but has shown himself well worth that kind of coin. The 28-year-old has been a productive offensive player for each of the past three seasons and typically grades out as an average performer at short.
Speculation all along has been that the Phils were among the most sensible and likeliest suitors for Manny Machado. Interest in Segura doesn’t necessarily change that. The superstar free agent still surely remains under consideration in Philadelphia. Indeed, it’s not inconceivable that both players could be added, delivering a whole new left side of the infield.
Segura will shore up many teams if they can get him from Mariners. Plus he wont break the bank or anyone budget.
Thoughts? Would the Mariners demand Kingery in a deal for Segura?
Word
Maybe Hernandez?
I personally would not mind giving up Hernandez in a 1 for 1 deal for Segura
Seattle would
Makes no sense for Seattle
Take him please
Doubtful that the Phils give up on Kingery that fast
where is King going to play if they acquire Segura? maybe oddy Herrera in the deal?
If they get Segura only, he plays short. Hernandez would have to go to clear Kingery to play 2nd. If they get Machado, maybe Segura or Kingery is at 3rd and the other on 2nd since Machado wants to play short.
If your referring to Kingery the goal is to trade Hernandez and shift him back to his natural position of 2B where he graded as an above average defender throughout his minor league career.
Or sell low on Crawford
I think the M’s can have their choice of Kingery or Crawford, would prefer to give up JPC. Probably have to throw a SP and maybe a reliever in as well.
What about segura for Kingery? Phillies want to win now. Kingery is owed guaranteed cash and had a rough go of it the first time around. Still not far off from being a top prospect and it save a ton of cash. Crawford is also an option that would fit dipoto’s quick retool. Think it’d take something else from philly but I could see that being a good foundation.
Bob Smiley, I love Scott Kingery as a person and I hope he turns out as an all-star. Mariners can have him though if we got Segura.
I’m sure the Phillies want to hang on to Kingery and Crawford. I can see Hernandez and a few prospects getting the job done. I don’t think they include Odubel. We need to save him for a trade to Cleveland for Kluber!
Segura is a very valuable player. He’d cost more than that
Probably Crawford and Medina as headliners
Some random guy on twitter said yesterday Colome to CWS and Segura to PHI was going to happen today. That dude is a top source.
I never have predicted Colome to Chicago, but before the season I predicted Paxton to New York, Segura to Philly, and oddly enough that Ricardo Sanchez would be traded to Seattle. I have been wrong about as much as I’ve been right though.
Welcome to Seattle Sixto
A Moose can dream…
I don’t believe the Mariners will be able to pry Sanchez from the Phils but I could definitely see a package like Adonis Medina and Jose Pujols or Dipoto could try to pry De Los Santos back.
I think we have seen Dipoto and Co. don’t know the prospect world very well with his recent trades and if the reports are true about the Cano/Díaz deal that is just another fleecing where he has to get another top tier prospect on top of Kelenic/Dunn to make that deal make sense. Gerson Bautista is not the answer. Jeff McNeil or Dominic Smith would make much more sense for a rebuilding club.
In your dreams
Hahahaha
Kingery would make more sense if in fact the Phils are in on Machado. This would give them a ML proven SS sending a younger unproven SS to Seattle. Seattle sheds a large contract. To make it go Seattle would probably send some money to Philly while asking for a low level prospect along with Kingery. Or the Phils could blow Dipoto away with a haul for Segura and Diaz?
Kingery is a 2B by trade, not SS. Only played there out of necessity last season.
Is Sixto a fair headliner for Segura? As an M’s fan, curious to hear Philis perspective. I don’t see the point of Seattle giving up an affordable talent like Segura just to bring back Crawford
Sixto is too much
The Phillies have a ton of Major League or near Major League talent to deal from, so I think they’d move on if the other team insisted on Sixto Sanchez. They have the cheap controllable players with upside to get someone like Segura if the Mariners balk.
Sixto is a prospect stud but,me,id ALWAYS give up a prospect 4 a known talent like segura. I think crawford,another phils pitching prospect would be better 4 yous. Or,if u need 2nd,Crawford and hernandez is fair. Hernandez had an off year but hes a 300 hitter.
Segura for Crawford and Medina
I’m a Mariners fan, so I’ll start by saying I love this deal. But I also believe it’s realistic. Crawford is a buy-low guy and Medina shores up the talent disparity between the two shortstops. The Mariners get an instant name to plug into the MLB lineup with cheap control and a high upside arm that isn’t MLB ready, while the Phillies get a huge push towards an even more rounded playoff roster. I think this is a pretty reasonable package because I think the Phillies sign Machado and the left side of their infield instantly becomes arguably the best in baseball.
As an Ms fan, Crawford doesn’t excite me at all. I think Phili would be very happy to include him if it lands Segura
he’s been injured a lot these past two seasons, so he hasn’t really had much time to prove himself. i still think he’s gonna develop into a solid-but-not-all-star player and would love the phils to give him another look this season, but you’re right–if he can help you land you segura you kinda gotta let him go
As a phils fan,youre a smart m’s fan. Good deal 4 both sides.
Medina, Crawford, De Los Santos and Cozens for Segura and Pazos?
I’m not sure DiPoto brings back de los Santos after already trading him away one time.
He brings back everyone he trades!
Including Segura and Mallex Smith
He did with Mallex Smith.
Smith is a stretch. He acquired him for TB as the means to get Smyly
Can never have to much pitching, especially if they are preparing for a rebuild
Seems to be more of a steady “retooling” at this point.
Well he just traded to get Mallex Smith. So nothing would supprise me.
Sonny Gray for Segura.
That’s a complete garbage deal. An Allstar SS for a guy who STRUGGLED in NY. Gray will be traded and in a PTBNL deal.
Lol
I’ll take Crawford or Kingery.
I’d give up Crawford. He’s good for on base usually but will probably be more of a .250-.260 hitter with 10-15 HR tops but will get you some walks. Made some mental mistakes defensively but usually regarded as a pretty good defensive SS that makes some rookie errors. With he and Kingery you are looking at 2 guys coming off of their rookie years so there’s room to improve for sure.
Thoughts because I am not sure if he is untouchable for the Phillies. What about Segura for Adam Haseley straight up or maybe add a low tier prospect on top of that. I would like the Mariners to add another OF with high potential like Haseley.
You do not get one of the top 10 SS who is also an Allstar for crap. So please be realistic. I can respect you wanting your team to get the best they can. But you don’t do it by thinking a 3 week old bagel and a flat beer cut it.
That escalated quickly. Haseley is a top 5 prospect in the Phillies organization after sixto, bohm, kingery, and crawford. Haseley is steam rolling in the MiLB with a slash line of .300/.360/.424. He has six years of control and projected to play in the major leagues by June 1st. Haseley is definitely not a 3 week old bagel. I did say haseley could headline the deal with a few more prospects. Look what we are getting for Diaz… not the Mets top prospect.. Diaz had the top 3 best save seasons in history too
Some feel Kelenic is the top prospect in the Mets system. He was only drafted 6 months ago. A year from now, Kelenic could be a top 20 or even top 10 prospect in all of baseball. Gimenez, Kelenic, and Alonso are all clustered around the middle of the top 100 prospects in MLB.
The difference is Alonso plays the position with the least prospect value (1B/DH) and is at the end of his devlopment curve.
Gimenez is in the middle of his development curve and plays one of the most valueable positions, but his best stat on paper is base stealing and his speed is only slightly above average while he is yet to fill out and players lose speed over time. He will be good, but his value is not going to shoot up between now and his call up in 2019 or 2020.
Kelenic has only had less than 1./2 a season in the minors and that is after being taken in the 1st round, so his value didn’t just manifest from nothing. Most important he is from a cold climate where players who are advanced at this young an age is very rare. While he is very unlikely to be half the player I’m about to reference, the last cold weather player to show this advanced approach to hitting was Mike Trout another 1st rounder from a heavily snow fallen region of the U.S. The most important.
While Gimenez and Kelenic could with enough time and development be top 10 prospects in all of baseball, it is less likely Gimenez stays a prospect long enough to crack the top 20, while Kelenic is highly enough regarded and far enough from the majors (2021 to 2022 arrival) that he will be in the discussion by the spring of 2020.
Mebbe crawford and moniak.
I have a feeling that Haseley may be an MiLB untouchable with Bohm and Sixto at this point.
While the former two would be untouchable I doubt Haseley is. That said I’d guess they’d rather deal an outfielder like Nick Williams fist.
Haseley and Bohm but,if right deal,not any pitcher.
Please……
Manny Machado.is not a superstar.
As long as the deal wouldn’t involve Sixto Sanchez , My guess Medina & others for him. Then they should focus on getting another big bat, Miller or Britton
Segura for crawford and Herrera
Id LOVE that deal.
on one hand it seems odd to think the Phils and Segura are a match–theyve already got Hoskins, Santana, Kingery, Crawford, Hernandez, and Franco expected to play around the infield, and will be making a serious play to add Machado to that mix. yea, Segura would be an upgrade over all of the Phils current IF options, but it seems like they should swing a trade for an area of greater need: SP and/or a lefty corner OF bat
Just stopping by to read Mariners fans dream trades hahaha
OK, how about this:
-PHI: Segura and LHP James Pazos
-SEA: Carlos Santana, JP Crawford, Alex Bohm, Enyel de los Santos, and Luis Garcia
This helps the Phillies by giving them the best player in the deal while actually lowering their payroll. Segura is really good and signed to a value contract. His $14.2 mil contract would be offset by Santana’s money. The Phillies would still be able to make a huge splash in free agency. Pazos is a good, cheap setup reliever. Moving Santana not only gets his salary off the books, but also solves some roster problems. Rhys Hoskins could move back to his natural position of 1B, which would improve the defense immediately.
Seattle takes Santana, who fits their roster better at DH/1B. Crawford is a buy-low guy who could fit in at SS right away. Bohm is the big prospect get for the M”s, while Garcia is another player with upside who is a long ways away. De los Santos would help the M’s right away in their rotation.
The Mariners would now have 4 DH/first basemen on their team in Santana, Healy, Bruce, and Vogalbach. I don’t think the trade is fair though.
That won’t work for the Phillies. They aren’t looking to dump Santana’s salary. They are looking to move Santana to clear a spot for Hoskins. In fact, they will likely take back bad contracts. The Phillies will probably pay $20 million in any Santana deal to make Santana so cheap that another team will give up something good for him.
Trading either Alec Bohm or Luis Garcia doesn’t fit with their strategy. They have a glut of big league or near big league talent that hasn’t blossomed yet and want to turn several pieces into one.
If there’a trade, it’ll include someone like Crawford but not Sanchez, Bohm, or Garcia. Well, you can have Luis Garcia the relief pitcher, just not the shortstop.
You are right, they absolutely do want to get rid of Santana to make room for Rhys Hoskins at 1B and don’t need the salary dump. However, for the Phillies to dump Santana on someone else, they will have to eat $32M or give up prospects equal to that dollar figure as he’s only worth about $9M of the $41M he is owed currently. Explanation for those dollar figures is below in my long comment.
Just a tad too much. Replace Bohm with moniak or herrera,done!
The Mariners aren’t trying to take on salary. If the Phillies aren’t willing to give prospects or eat a significant amount of money on Santana, they will have to take back salary in a deal. The Mariners are eating half of Cano’s contract and he can play a league average or better 2B, 3B, or 1B. Also he’s a better hitter than Santana. The only way the Mariners take on $41M for a over 30 year old 1B with limited trade value and below average contact skills, would be if the Phillies take back about $25M in salaried players or add to Santana. Even then I think the Phillies would have to kick in. I think due to position Santana is only worth about $10M based on his production and what comprable players are getting on the open market (Moustakas got only $7M a year with a not dissimilar hitting profile and the ability to play 3B). Also for everyone talking about Cesar Hernandez, why would the Mariners trade 4 years of control for a 28 year old for 2 years of control of a 28 years old, when Segura is better and plays SS. If the Mariners are truly aiming at 2020 or 2021, they wouldn’t be dumping all of their 2 year controlled players. So Hernandez is out.
If this trade isn’t bringing Sixto to Seattle, I wouldn’t do it!
I agree, the Mariners need to get a top level arm back for Segura. Ask for Gore from San Diego, and Sixto from Philly, if either decline you move on.
And now with the Mariners expected to take on Santana if a deal happens, I think Sixto is a given in a trade.
I don’t think it is a given they will take back Santana, but if they do…
Phillies get: ($64M value) ~ extra $3M in value is for cash depreciation
(Value) Pos Name (contract)
($58M) SS Jean Segura ($59M – $14.75M x 4 years)
(-$5M) RP Juan Nicasio ($9.25M x 1 year)
(-$4M) RP Anthony Swarzak ($8.5M x 1 year)
($10M) RP Dan Altavilla (5 years of control, 2 pre-arb, PA native)
($6M) Cash or low level reliever prospect
Mariners get: ($61M value)
(Value) Pos Name (contract)
(-$32M) 1B Carlos Santana $20.5M x 2 years)
($20M) SP Nick Pivetta (5 years of control, 2 pre-arb, BC native)
($15M) 2B Scott Kingery ($23M over 5 years)
($53M) SP Sixto Sanchez (6+ years of control)
($5M) SP David Parkinson (6+ years of control)
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Segura is worth about the same as James Paxton ($60M) and Kyle Tucker ($55M), meaning Sixto ($53M) plus Pivetta ($20M) for Segura ($58M) and Altavilla ($10M) and $2M/year for 2020-2022 ($6M) is fair value.
fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-trade-value-41-to-50/ – Segura trade value analysis.
Kyle Tucker is the 8th most valuable prospect in baseball, Sixto Sanchez is slightly behind him at 16th most valuable prospect.
fangraphs.com/blogs/an-update-to-prospect-valuatio… – Sixto trade value analysis.
David Parkinson is a 45V pitching prospect, so if you are bullish on him he’s $6M, if you are boarish he’s $4M, so we split the difference and call him $5M.
fangraphs.com/blogs/putting-a-dollar-value-on-pros… – Parkinson trade value analysis.
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Kingery was a mid level top 100 prospect (#50) which is worth $40ish million in trade value, however Kingery has burnt his cheapest season of control, and due to his long term contract, can’t be sent to the minors to extend control or to lower salary until ready to perform at a high level which steals a ton of that value. If you remove the guaranteed money from $41M, you are left with $18M minus a season of control and we’ll say he’s worth about $15M in excess value.
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1B FA from 2017/2018 offseason….
Lucas Duda $3.5M/1 year ~ 1.1 WAR (’17) ~ signed age 32 season
Yonder Alonso $16M/2 years ~ 1.9 WAR (’17) ~ signed age 31 & 32 seasons
Mitch Moreland $13M/2 years ~ 2.0 WAR (’17) ~ signed age 32 & 33 seasons
Carlos Santana $60M/3 years ~ 3.4 WAR (’17) ~ signed age 32, 33, & 34 seasons
While a year older now, his production in 2018 was in line with Moreland and Alonso from last year. Had Philadelphia been more patient, it is safe to say they would’ve paid substantially less given the other deals that were signed after Santana’s ridiculous contract.
Santana was worth 1.7 WAR and is a year older than Moreland was last year and two years older than Alonso at the same time. Given this information, I doubt he would match either of their contracts, meaning he’d be in a 1 year for $5.5M to 2 year for $9.5M range. Meaning his contract has nearly $32M in negative value.
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How’s this trade we get segura and a relief pitcher for Hernandez and say Luis Garcia
Or instead of Hernandez maybe Santana or hernandez Santana Garcia for segura and two relief pitchers