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The Indians endured the heartbreak of another early exit from the postseason in 2018, and they’re likely to suffer the mass exodus of nearly a dozen free agents. That, combined with several impending player salary increases, a shortage of top prospects, and the looming return to relevance of some rebuilding AL Central teams, poses some difficult questions about the Tribe’s contention window. They’ll enter the offseason foraging for creative (and budget-conscious) ways to address them.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Edwin Encarnacion, 1B/DH: $25MM through 2019 (includes $5MM buyout on 2020 club option)
- Corey Kluber, SP: $19MM through 2019 (includes $2MM in buyouts on 2020, 2021 club options)
- Jason Kipnis, 2B/OF: $17MM through 2019 (includes $2.5MM buyout on 2020 club option)
- Carlos Carrasco, SP: $10,412,500 through 2019 (includes $662.5K buyout on 2020 club option)
- Yonder Alonso, 1B: $9MM through 2019 (includes $1MM buyout on 2020 vesting/club option)
- Brad Hand, RP: $14.5MM through 2020 (includes $1MM buyout on 2021 club option)
- Yan Gomes, C: $9MM through 2019 (includes $2MM in buyouts on 2020, 2021 club options)
- Jose Ramirez, 2B/3B: $21MM through 2021 (includes $2MM option on 2022 club option)
- Roberto Perez, C: $6.9MM through 2020 (includes $900K in buyouts on 2020, 2021 club options)
- Dan Otero, RP: $1.4MM through 2019 (includes $100K buyout on 2020 club option)
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Trevor Bauer (4.158) – $11.6MM
- Francisco Lindor (3.113) – $10.2MM
- Danny Salazar (4.162) – $5.0MM
- Leonys Martin, OF: $3MM (avoided arbitration)
- Neil Ramirez (4.001) – $1.3MM
- Cody Anderson (3.017) – $900K
- Nick Goody (2.160) – $700K
- Non-tender candidates: Salazar, Ramirez
Free Agents
- Michael Brantley, Cody Allen, Andrew Miller, Josh Donaldson, Melky Cabrera, Rajai Davis, Lonnie Chisenhall, Brandon Guyer, Oliver Perez, Josh Tomlin
[Cleveland Indians Depth Chart | Cleveland Indians Payroll Outlook]
While the Indians have enjoyed a sustained run of dominance over the rest of the American League Central for the past three seasons, they’ve fallen short of a championship each year, and every time in a fashion more disappointing than the last. Three consecutive losses have bumped them from the playoffs all three times, and they’re now facing yet another club record payroll (north of $145MM) in a market too small in size to support such a figure.
Worse yet, that payroll estimate comes in spite of the very likely departures of several players who’ve been key contributors during the Tribe’s run of success, including Brantley, Allen, Miller and Chisenhall. The subtraction of those contracts from the books are more than negated by gargantuan expected arbitration raises for Bauer and Lindor, in combination with 10 players who are contractually guaranteed raises on their 2018 salaries. Put more simply, Cleveland is set to subtract talent while adding payroll.
It’s not as though there’s significant cavalry on its way from the farm, either. Four of the club’s five top prospects are still playing at Class A or below, and their highest-ranked outfield prospect (their biggest area of need) in the upper minors is Oscar Mercado, who sits at #15 on MLB Pipeline’s Indians prospect rankings. Only #1-ranked Triston McKenzie appears primed to make an impact in 2019, and the Tribe’s rotation already has five locks in the form of Kluber, Carrasco, Bauer, Mike Clevinger and Shane Bieber.
That’s perhaps a large part of the reason the Tribe is reportedly willing to listen to offers on Kluber and Carrasco this winter, in addition to some other pricey veterans. The logic behind it makes plenty of sense: if the Indians can deal from a strength by trading one of their top starters for a cheap, controllable outfielder who can help now, they’d receive some salary relief while improving their outlook further down the road, and all without greatly diminishing the strength of their 2019 ballclub. After all, McKenzie’s ceiling is nothing to scoff at, and without much divisional competition to worry about (again) in 2019, the club might be less concerned with its regular season starting five than it is with its postseason starting four. And one could certainly argue that there’s no better time to reap a generous return for a premium starting pitcher, given the number of pitching-needy contenders and relative dearth of alternatives on the trade market and in free agency.
Of course, with Kluber being a two-time Cy Young winner and one of the main faces of the franchise, it might be hard for fans to stomach losing him in an effort driven in part by a desire to shed salary. Meanwhile, trading Carrasco for even a player owed the league minimum would save the club less than eight figures next season, so while such a move could still help to fill a hole elsewhere on the roster, it wouldn’t go as far in the way of shedding financial obligations. These factors, along with the immense value each pitcher is expected to deliver on his contract in 2019 (and beyond), make it far from a sure thing that either will end up in a different uniform before Opening Day. Rather, the notion of the Tribe trading one of their top two arms should be seen only as one potential card in their hand as they work to solve a complicated roster puzzle headed into next year.
The biggest gap in that puzzle, as we touched upon earlier, lies in the outfield. Brantley, who’s been a mainstay since his MLB debut in 2009, is set to test free agency for the first time in his career; reports say he’s almost certainly not returning to Cleveland. Cabrera, Davis and Guyer, likewise, are vulnerable to being signed by rival teams at this juncture. Martin, for whom they traded prior to the 2018 non-waiver deadline, is expected to make a full recovery from a life-threatening bacterial infection in time for opening day, but outside of him — assuming he is indeed able to get back to full health — the club’s options are extraordinarily fallible. Kipnis hasn’t had a productive offensive season since 2016. Greg Allen has played below replacement level thus far in 330 career plate appearances. Naquin’s career is full of ups and downs and there’s no telling whether he’ll completely rebound from his recent hip surgery. Former top prospect Bradley Zimmer limped offensively in 2018 and won’t return for quite some time due to a shoulder injury he suffered in Triple-A.
Outside of trading a starting pitcher, the Tribe would appear to have few ways to address their outfield need. They already swung a minor trade with the Pirates that netted them major-leaguer Jordan Luplow, though he’s more of a lottery ticket than an established, reliable piece. One possible avenue would be to cash in prospect capital for a talented corner outfield option; certainly MLB Pipeline’s #84 prospect Nolan Jones could get a conversation started for some solid targets. And with monetary funds largely tapped out as things stand at present, they’re highly unlikely to afford a reliable solution on the free agent market.
Then again, that financial outlook could easily change if the club is able to find a taker for some of their more expensive veterans. Encarnacion and Kipnis, for example, are both on the wrong side of the aging curve. The two combined for just 3.2 fWAR in 2018 but are owed a massive sum of $36.5MM for their services next season. Certainly neither player would be viewed as having any sort of surplus value on his respective salary — quite the contrary — and that’s without even considering the $7.5MM in total buyouts on the pair’s contract options for 2020. Still, either could provide a method of shedding salary if the right team were to show interest. Encarnacion has plenty of pop left in his bat, and could be a fit for a handful of American League clubs. Young OBP machine Yandy Diaz could perhaps step in and fill the DH opening should the parrot fly out of Cleveland. Kipnis, meanwhile, could theoretically be replaced with the addition or promotion of an infielder or outfielder, so there are plenty of options to fill his shoes. Certainly plenty of teams would be interested in bringing a league-average middle infielder into the fold.
Of course, the Tribe’s questions marks are not limited to the outfield. Perhaps an even more pressing issue is the club’s bullpen, which finished in the AL’s bottom three in ERA, FIP and fWAR, and has been ravaged by the free agent departures of Allen, Miller and Perez. Of the group set to return, only Hand finished 2018 with an ERA below 4.00. It’s worth mentioning that Salazar is somewhat of a wild card, but overall the outlook is bleak.
It’s unclear what viable options the club has in the way of improving its relief corps to the level necessary to compete with other powerhouse teams, but the “throw a bunch of spaghetti against the wall and see what sticks” method employed by the club in 2018 was a pronounced failure and hopefully won’t be employed again next season. The in-house group is likely to see some positive regression, of course, but creative methods of bringing in reinforcements are likely to be high on the club’s priority list.
While there are certainly plenty of issues to address for 2019, the long-term outlook brings an entirely different cornucopia of questions. While the Indians have a wide variety of high-end young talent locked up for the near future (Lindor, Ramirez, Clevinger and Hand all come to mind), those players will continue to get significantly more expensive over the next three seasons. During that time, their already-expensive veterans are more likely to decline than they are to repeat their recent performances, and unlike in years past they’ve got very few promising players under team control beyond the next three seasons. The AL Central won’t be a cakewalk forever; teams like the White Sox and Tigers are already past the initial teardown phases of their respective rebuilds and figure to be on the upswing in the coming seasons. All of a sudden, the Tribe is facing some very real longevity concerns, and it’s not unthinkable that they could make some creative moves this offseason as a means of addressing them.
Of course, even if they made next to no major moves from this point through spring training, they’re a contender in every sense of the word. Their rotation remains one of the best in baseball, and they have two of the game’s best young position-player talents in Lindor and Ramirez. The path to a fourth consecutive AL Central Championship doesn’t have much in the way of serious obstructions, so any and all acquisitions the Indians make this winter will simply culminate in slight statistical improvements upon their postseason odds. While they aren’t likely to enter next October as favorites, they’ll have a chance, and as we saw with the 2016 club, sometimes an outside shot can carry a team a long way.
The recently (and unofficially) extended Mike Chernoff has a wide variety of issues to address this offseason, but he’s also got a wide variety of options at his disposal and a relatively low floor as far as overall competitive makeup. There will be some suspense as far as who might stay or go, however, and that very aspect of the club’s offseason outlook means that there will be several interesting storylines to follow. Tribe fans will certainly have an entertaining winter ahead of them in that regard.
The thing is, the Indians could trade Kluber, EE, Kipnis, and Carrasco all for prospects and salary relief and still win the division by double digits. The ALC is a joke right now, and just because there’s four rebuilding teams and a clear path to the playoffs shouldn’t stop them from doing what’s best long-term.
Not if the white Sox sign either Harper or machado!
Peter;
Respectfully, I’ve read stuff like that here. Many have an inflated view of the White Sox, and of how much a Harper or Machado will impact a team.
Corey Kluber to LA for Austin Barnes and Chris Taylor.
That’s an overpay for the Dodgers. Kluber for Verdugo and maybe Scott Alexander. Go Dodgers.
Both of those are underpays for the Dodgers. The Indians don’t have to trade Kluber. It will take a massive haul to get him. Give till it hurts…..
No way, Verdugo is the next Trout.
lololol 6 straight NL west titles my guy. #BleedBlue #NLCSChampions #DivisionChamps #WeBeatTheBravesLol
Always the bridesmaid never the bride. Or in this case world series contestant never world series champion.
Verdugo is talented. I’d love for the Indians to trade for him. He’s the #32 prospect in all of baseball, according to mlb.com. It would take Verdugo, one more top prospect (at least), a lower level prospect and a major league reliever to get Kluber. (Not that different from Sale a few years ago.) Kluber is the best pitcher in baseball over the last five years. You’ll have to pay for him.
You forgot 2018 World Series Champions….oh nvm
You got thrashed by my Red Sox!
Kluber has been the best over the past 5 years? You’re making Tribe fans look really bad here.
Well, I meant in the AL, but Scherzer is the only pitcher in MLB with a better WAR over the last five years. So, he’s the second best in baseball and the best starter available this winter.
#LosttoAstros #LosttoRedSox #HaventWonSinceReaganWasPresident
Kluber is exactly what the Dodgers need, but like Kershaw he’s shaky in the post season. CLE should trade Kluber, but they really need to include Kipnis in the deal even if it diminishes the return. Kluber and Kipnis for Verdugo would work.
Why do they want to trade anybody? They need to keep it togetger and find some outfielders.
You must’ve missed the twelve mentions in the article about the payroll…
From what I’ve read, interest in the team and ticket sales are also down for 2019.
They had a great run, but like any non-large market team it gets to a point where they can no longer afford the players they developed, and after drafting low for years their minor league system suffers.
I can see Francona retiring as Manager after 2019. He looks tired, and he sees the writing on the wall. The Mets new GM appears to be a disaster – whether he blames Callaway for 2019 or Callaway realizes that the Mets will continue in circles – I can see Mickey Callaway going back to Cleveland as Manager for the inevitable rebuild (which will not be that long). Francona will stay on as a consultant.
Where do you think they’re going to find these outfielders? At the spare outfielders store? We’ll trade a starting pitcher to get outfield help.
Go for broke here- Triston McKenzie, Mike Clevinger, Nolan Jones, Chang, Ethan Hankin, Noah Naylor to Seattle for Mitch Haniger, Edwin Diaz, and James Pazos
Sign Andrew McCutchen play a corner, sign Jon Jay or Cameron Maybin to be the 4th OF,
Sign a couple RPs to help bolster the pen keep the core in tact.
Division is wide open and adding Haniger McCutchen Jay/Maybin to bolster the OF unit along with Diaz and Pazos to bolster the pen youd be able to make a run with Kluber, Carrasco, Bauer, Bieber.
Lol Mitch Haniger isn’t getting traded! Go Mariners!
That doesn’t help the finances. Not one player that has significant money attached to the Indians is being traded. Did you read the story?
You’re insane. No way Cleveland gives away that many young players.
Where are you coming up with these trade ideas?
The Indians are looking to shed money…not add it! They want to get younger, not older!
They will not be trading McKenzie or Clevinger. Clevinger will be a big part of their rotation next year along with Bauer and Beiber.
Kluber and/or Carrasco will be traded! They will be looking for young controllable players in return.
The Mariners are not likely trading Haniger or Diaz anyway…so your proposal is mute from both sides!
Waiting likes to propose fantasy baseball trades.. Cleveland will not trade Clevinger or Bieber as they are controlled and less expensive, They will trade one starter if the right offer comes about. I have trust in the Indians front office to make the best of the situation.
The 18 Indians were completely propped up by their terrible division. It will be much the same in 19, undeservedly make the playoffs and then get stomped by the class of the league. They will need to sign some has-beens, like Cutch and Donaldson, to cheap salaries and then pray for miracle postseason performances. That is only way they even make it past the ALDS. Then they’ll need to sell the future, trade the whole farm, and get some quality releivers, if they want a shot at getting to the WS.
What does your teams future look like?
My team is the Tigers and they are recovering from years of going for broke and doing anything to win a World Series. No regrets. This wishy washy Indians approach is going to waste their window, which will eventually close regardless.
Interesting how winning your division makes you undeserving of making the playoffs. What a dumb comment.
Okay maybe I went a little overboard but I hate watching small market teams miss their opportunity because their afraid to make big moves to add, not subtract.
Ejemp2006, that is why they are interested in trading a starter. I’m they’ve maxed out their salary, so the Indians know they will have to get lucky to make the World Series. Better to trade for young guys to start the transition to a younger team. They’ll probably win the central, anyway. Might as well do it with a cheaper team.
The reasons for trading a starting pitcher are in the article.
The reason for wanting to move Kluber is that he hasn’t come through in the playoffs the past few years. He can help get the Indians into the playoffs from a weak AL Central. But he cannot go up against an ace like Verlander and a line-up like the Astros.
His performance in the post season is NOT the reason for this potential trade. The Indians are smart enough to know about small sample sizes. They are exploring this trade because they have maxed out their team salary and cannot improve without a ton of luck.
Corey Kluber can and has beaten other aces on the playoffs …. it just hasn’t happened recently. He is among the best pitchers in baseball. Period.
Does anyone outside of Cleveland remember the 2016 playoffs and World Series. Cleveland had 3/5 of their starting staff injured. Kluber and Andrew Miller carried the pitching staff and got the Indians to the 7th game. Cleveland has done well against Verlander over the years. At the time of the trade to Houston, Verlander’s record against the Indians was 20 – 24 with a 4..71 ERA. During the 2017 season his record was 1-3 with an 8.14 era.,
Thank you! Exactly.
No please, don’t scrape your way in. Go for the gusto!
This is an inflection point in the Indians franchise. While the front office has assembled a good young core of players the organization has continually lacked critical pieces to the roster. This is the offseason where creativity will be the key driver. Is it time to trade Kluber? For the right offer that fills numerous holes… absolutely. I’m glad the Indians didn’t trade him to the Yankees since they were unwilling to include Andujar that’s an absolute deal breaker for me. That being said if we can turn Kluber into an everyday corner outfielder that hits for average and power I’m all in as that’s a critical need on this roster. Also, given what Donaldson was able to show in just over a month of production I would make it a top priority to resign him. It’s a risky proposition BUT if he regains his pre-injury form 2 years at roughly $40 million could be the bargain of the century. Yes, I put Donaldson higher on the priority list than Brantley… reason being is because Donaldson’s ceiling is much higher than Brantley’s and the power that Donaldson brings to the lineup Brantley doesn’t have. Also, Brantley has become a below average defesnver outfielder since his injuries while Donaldson is still a gold glove caliber 3rd baseman. Finally, it’s time to completely overhaul the bullpen. Other than Hand, Perez, and Cimber I’m bringing in a slew of new arms via free agency and trade that can work through the high leverage situations a bullpen typically faces. I let Miller walk (due to financial constraints) and let Cody Allen walk (due to diminishing skills) and from there I rebuild.
Please reread the article.
The Indians don’t have the money to pay Donaldson.
Yes read and don’t even think about questioning or disagreeing!
I disagree. I think this is why the Indians are looking to trade Kluber. He’s slated to make $15 million this season and don’t forget that Andrew Miller’s $9 million is coming off the books as well. All of a sudden the Indians have a $24 million inflow just by those two coming off the books. Now obviously the arb eligible players will start to eat some of that up but to give Donaldson $15-20 million isn’t out of the rhelm for the Indians. Also, don’t forget that the Indians are also shopping Edwin so if they find a suitor to him that available cash flow nearly doubles
OK……
The Indians went over budget in 2018. How many millions they lost is not yet known. Revenue sources for 2019 project down from 2018. Some young players are due large raises.
Reality check – The Cleveland Indians are a private business. Unlike the government, they cannot print – and endlessly borrow – money. There’s nothing to “question” here. It’s all about the money.
As for Encarnacion – right now there is no demand out there for him. He’s a wonderful DH/big bat, but extremely expensive. Maybe after teams have made their moves. But at this point it appears that interest would come well into the season if a contending team with cash reserves has suffered injuries, or some of their hitters are slumping – that’s assuming Encarnacion is healthy and producing. And even then the Indians would have to eat 15-20% of the salary just to get anything back.
Lindor will get at 10 million raise for arbitration, Bauer will get a six million raise and then you have escalators. I’m sure Kluber and Carrasco get a good bump for finishing in the cy young race and Ramirez will definitely get an all-star and mvp finalist bonus. With those five players, the “excess” you speak of is consumed. Not sure how you think they Donaldson is in the picture…
Wahoo what a finish – I agree with you completely. I think we need to move out as many high salary players (Kluber, Encarnacion, Kipnis – perhaps Gomes) as we can. We don’t trade Kluber or Gomes unless we get what we want. This will allow us to add Donaldson, at least one outfielder and a few bullpen pieces. It will also allow us to begin the transition to the next team core.
Would Houston be interested in Encarnacion -especially if we added some cash?
Why?
The Astros – or any AL team – can get José Martínez from the Cardinals. Martinez will make around $650k in 2019, and is under control for 4 more years. Encarnacion is under control for one more year, and is due a salary of $22-plus mm in 2019.
Martinez is a better contact hitter and gets on base more. Has almost as much power.
Indians are going to have major problems getting Encarnacion off the books. Same with Kipnis. This is Swisher / Bourn redux.
2018 – Martinez…………… – .305 .364 .457 .821
2018 – Encarnacion………. – .246 .336 .474 .810
That could work but Encarnacion is short term expensive and a potential difference maker with his bat. I’m not sure you want to dump him to lower salary considering how hard it would be to replace his predictably good hitting.
Ejemp, I would agree if we weren’t maxed out. Encarnacion will probably be a 3.0 WAR bat, which is attractive. But, he just costs too damn much and does nothing for us long term. $25.0m makes him a wash given what he brings. That’s why I’m suggesting the Tribe pay part of his salary.
It is true, however, that we may not be able to get full value.
EE and Kipnis are more productive than Swisher and Bourn. They aren’t useless dead weights like those guys were. They are mostly untradeable, sure, but they can still be good players for one more year.
Could Sandiego and Cleveland match up for another trade? Send Gomes to Sandiego with Kipnis and get back Hedges, Jankowski and maybe a reliever ? It seems like the pieces are there for another trade between the two.
Kluber will bring a better return than Carrasco, and CLE shouldn’t be concerned about dealing either one since Bauer will essentially be the staff ace in 2019. They must acquire a young quality corner OF, but a priority that’s almost as big is getting rid of Kipnis and his salary. Even if they do nothing else this winter, getting Kipnis off that roster is mandatory.
If this is true the Braves should call them and be willing to take Kipnis and Kluber for a lesser return and eat the whole salary of both! How much would that drop Kluber’s value?
The Braves have shown the ability to take on contracts to get other players over the years…maybe this could be similar to those situations for Atlanta!
I think this is a real possibility – it will still be expensive, but not as much. I was imagining that the Indians would add some money, then the Braves could add some as well and get a third team involved. Someone like Miami or Texas. Kipnis is likely to be a1.5 WAR or so player. A team like that might take a chance on him improving enough to ship him off at the deadline as long as his salary was whittled down enough. He was a 4.0 WAR player as recently as two years ago. He actually looked ok at the end of the season, so you never know.
Maybe the Reds and Indians can get together and work out a deal. Reds need some SP and Indians need some more high level prospects who are close to coming in under Lindor and the others.
I would love a Reds/Indians trade, but both teams see it as really risky.
PF12 and RL9, I think the Indians will be open to any trade that allows them to shed salary and get younger, but one of our pitchers will be very expensive. At least what the Red Sox paid for Sale.
I see Cleveland rolling the dice with what they have this season, and doing more next offseason, when the big contracts of EE, Kipnis, and Alonso (among others) can come off the payroll.
As for the outfield, nobody seems to mention Connor Marabell. He can slot into RF this season. Maybe not the greatest choice, but a team like Cleveland has to use what they draft and develop.
I think your scenario is a real possibility if they can’t get top value for Kluber.
I’m hoping to make the trip to Goodyear this spring, to watch him and the other OF possibilities.
I wish I could go, but Spring Training doesn’t align with Spring Break. I went years ago…..
Only a 4 1/2 hour drive for me, so I can go and return the same day if needed. But it’s not needed, so a week sounds good.
Something for sure, the Indians are doing great work developing young pitchers. I wouldn’t be surprised to see another new face come up from their system this year and blow people away. With that being said, it’s absolutely time to break the bank while their young position players are approaching their peak. You won’t be able to keep Lindor or Ramirez so win now while you have them.
Next on the list — Eli Morgan.
Not Hentges or Civale?
Hentges possibly, but not crazy on Civale.
Even the guys we’re not crazy about turn into Clevingers and Bauers.
I am a huge fan of Kluber and have been since before his breakout season. Even when he was carrying a 5+ ERA back in 2012, there was something about his combination of stuff and command that looked destined for greatness. It’s always awesome to see a player exceed expectations and develop like that – especially on your own team – and to have him under team control for 3 more seasons at a reasonable rate, for a pitcher at his elite talent level, is invaluable to a team in our market size. Add that to the simple fact that starting pitching is clearly the focal point of our organization, and it’s tough to imagine us actually pulling the trigger on a trade involving Kluber, or any of our starting pitchers.
THAT SAID… like many others on these boards, I think if we can find the right package, we pull the trigger.
Brewers seem to make a ton of sense as a trade partner – they could use a legitimate ace and have surplus OF and some RP they could likely spare in a deal. Assuming they hold onto Hader and Knebel, if we could lure a package of D. Santana, J. Jeffress, F. Peralta and maybe a lower level prospect… I would go for that deal.
Padres also make sense if they’re looking to buy this offseason. They have a ton of young OF prospects that are already starting to push into the majors, so I could see us targeting Jankowski and/or Renfroe, who are both on the older side of that wave. They also have a ton of intriguing RP arms, so you mix and match there and you’re filling 3-4 holes and cutting salary in one fell swoop.
There are probably a handful of other places we could look (Rangers [Mazara], but are they buying? Mariners {Haniger], but would they let him go?) but if we’re able to find a partner where we are able to net a return like any of the above, I don’t see why we would NOT make a move, free up some salary, and either fill another hole with that money or work towards an extension with Frankie.
HOWEVER – one last thought here… If we could get somebody like a Domingo Santana from the Brewers for a lesser cost (he is expendable to them, so if we were able to ship off a #20-30 prospect for him) and cobble together the bullpen with some lower end prospect trades for fringe ML relief help, while maybe signing one proven FA like Herrera to shore up the back end, I could also see us going that route and holding onto SP in the process.
Thoughts?