MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here to read the other entries in this series.
After celebrating their fourth World Series in 15 years, the Red Sox now have some significant holes to fill in the starting rotation and bullpen. They’ll also need to think about whether and how to keep their championship core together for the long term.
Guaranteed Contracts
- David Price, SP: $127MM through 2022 (Price chose not to exercise his opt-out clause)
- J.D. Martinez, DH/OF: $86.25MM through 2022 (Martinez can opt out after each of the next three seasons; Red Sox can potentially convert fourth and fifth seasons into mutual options)
- Dustin Pedroia, 2B: $40MM through 2021
- Rick Porcello, SP: $21MM through 2019
- Chris Sale, SP: $15MM through 2019 (club option exercised)
- Christian Vazquez, C: $13.55MM through 2021 (includes $250K buyout of $7MM club option for 2022)
- Mitch Moreland, 1B: $6.5MM through 2019
- Eduardo Nunez, IF: $5MM through 2019 (exercised player option)
Obligations To Former Players
- Pablo Sandoval, 3B: $23MM through 2019 (includes $5MM buyout of 2020 club option), minus prorated MLB minimum salary earned by Sandoval next season
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in brackets; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Mookie Betts (4.070) – $18.7MM
- Xander Bogaerts (5.042) – $11.9MM
- Jackie Bradley Jr. (4.150) – $7.9MM
- Eduardo Rodriguez (3.130) – $4.8MM
- Brock Holt (5.052) – $3.4MM
- Tyler Thornburg (5.057) – $2.3MM
- Sandy Leon (4.149) – $2.3MM
- Matt Barnes (3.110) – $1.5MM
- Brandon Workman (4.051) – $1.4MM
- Steven Wright (4.087) – $1.4MM
- Heath Hembree (3.106) – $1.2MM
- Blake Swihart (2.164) – $1.1MM
- Non-tender candidates: Thornburg
Free Agents
- Craig Kimbrel, Nathan Eovaldi, Joe Kelly, Steve Pearce, Ian Kinsler, Drew Pomeranz, Brandon Phillips, Carson Smith
[Boston Red Sox offseason page][Boston Red Sox payroll information]
The Red Sox won 108 regular season games and then lost just three postseason contests en route to the Commissioner’s Trophy. The good news doesn’t end there for Boston fans, as the window is still wide open for another title. Potential AL MVP Mookie Betts and Hank Aaron Award-winning slugger J.D. Martinez are the cornerstones of a dynamic lineup that will also have Xander Bogaerts, Andrew Benintendi, and Jackie Bradley Jr. as Opening Day locks. Chris Sale, David Price, and Rick Porcello sit atop the rotation, with bullpen workhorses Matt Barnes, Heath Hembree, Ryan Brasier, and Hector Velazquez all returning.
That’s an awfully strong nucleus to start from, particularly for a team that can still account for less-stable positions with players already on the roster, and isn’t shy about making big trades or signings if external help is required. The Red Sox soared over the luxury tax threshold last season and are projected to be well over the line again in 2019, though they’ll get some help in that area by the fact that the luxury tax limit will rise from $197MM to $206MM. Hanley Ramirez’s salary is also now completely off the books; the $22MM he had earned annually will be needed to cover projected arbitration raises.
So, what will president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski do for an encore? His most immediate question is the bullpen, as closer Craig Kimbrel and setup man Joe Kelly are both headed for free agency. The hard-throwing Kelly has had his ups and downs in Boston, with a 4.33 ERA over 359 1/3 innings for the team and persistent control issues. When Kelly was on, however, he was hard to touch — over 11 1/3 IP during Boston’s World Series run, the right-hander allowed just one earned run while recording 13 strikeouts and no walks. It’s easy to see how a rival team could take a chance on Kelly as a closer or top setup option, and offer him a contract beyond what the Sox are willing to pay. Then again, there’s still a fit on paper in Boston, so it’s possible he’ll return.
Meanwhile, Boston may only have limited interest in bringing Kimbrel back.After Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen raised the bar on contracts for top closers, it could be that the Red Sox simply aren’t keen on spending the big money it will likely take to retain Kimbrel (MLBTR projects him for a four-year, $70MM contract). The Red Sox also stand to recoup a compensatory draft pick via the qualifying offer if Kimbrel signs elsewhere. Kimbral had another strong regular season — 2.74 ERA, 3.10 K/BB rate, 13.9 K/9 over 62 1/3 innings — yet didn’t quite hit elite levels, and he struggled mightily throughout the postseason.
If Kimbrel does leave, the Sox don’t have an obvious in-house saves candidate ready to step up to the unique pressure of Fenway Park in the ninth inning. Free agents like David Robertson, Zach Britton, or Andrew Miller could all be targets, or Boston could pursue trade options. This is assuming, of course, that the Red Sox will take a traditional approach to the closer role, as the club could prefer to add a versatile multi-inning arm (like a Miller) or two and then give manager Alex Cora a chance to mix and match his late-game options based on matchups.
Beyond the top three in the rotation, the combination of Eduardo Rodriguez, Brian Johnson, swingman Velazquez, and (health permitting) Steven Wright should be capable of accounting for at least one of the other rotation spots. This depth also comes in handy should Sale again run into any health issues, as Boston put a priority on keeping their ace as fit as possible for October. The Red Sox will likely add to this mix with at least one more starting arm. The team has the resources to check in on any of the top pitchers available on the free agent or trade markets, with a pursuit of Nathan Eovaldi standing out as a logical option. Eovaldi will still just be 29 on Opening Day, and looked as good during his two-plus months with the Red Sox as he has at any point in his career, both results-wise and in terms of his 97.2mph average fastball speed.
If not Eovaldi, Boston could look at other pitchers that could be longer-term answers for the rotation since both Sale and Porcello are entering the last year of their contracts. As good as the present looks for the Red Sox, Dombrowski will have to turn an eye to the future this offseason as several important players are approaching free agency. Sale, Porcello, and Bogaerts are all only controlled through 2019; Betts and Bradley will reach the open market after 2020; and Martinez can opt out of his contract after any of the next three seasons.
There have already been indications that Bogaerts and Martinez will test free agency, though the team will likely at least consider broaching extension talks with all of these parties. It will be interesting to see which players the Red Sox prioritize in negotiations, as it will provide significant information about their approach for the future. Bogaerts, Martinez, and Bradley are all represented by Scott Boras, whose clients tend to reach the open market rather than sign extensions. Sale has been nothing short of outstanding during his nine-year career, though with his lingering injury concerns, are the Red Sox prepared to make an expensive commitment to the southpaw as he enters his 30s? Could Boston also look to a different type of extension, and lock up a controllable player like Benintendi (scheduled for free agency after 2022) to a even longer-term deal?
Betts has preferred to take a year-to-year approach rather than sign an extension, a gamble that has thus far handsomely paid off for the superstar outfielder. Could his stance change if the Red Sox were to approach him with one of the biggest contracts in baseball history? The argument can certainly be made that Betts is deserving of such a pact based on what he has done through his age-25 season, and the Sox could get some obvious contact comps this winter in whatever record-breaking deals Bryce Harper and Manny Machado (both of whom are 26 themselves) find in the free agent market this winter.
The Sox are set in the outfield, DH, and shortstop, and we can pretty safely pencil Rafael Devers at third base and Mitch Moreland for a timeshare at first base next season. Despite below-average overall hitting numbers and a shaky glove in 2018, Devers is still only 22, and the former top prospect will certainly be given plenty of opportunity to break out. Moreland will continue to provide his solid defense and bat from the left side of the plate, though the Sox will need to find another right-handed first base as a platoon partner.
World Series MVP Steve Pearce filled that role in spectacular fashion after coming to Boston in midseason, and while his price tag may go up, the free agent market has been unfriendly enough to veteran first basemen in recent years that a re-signing is certainly feasible from Boston’s end. For Pearce, he may also welcome another crack at a ring rather than aim for a few extra dollars in free agency.
Could the Red Sox make a bigger splash at first base? That’s what we thought could be in store last winter before the team re-signed Moreland to a two-year contract, so Boston seems content for now to just stick with a platoon situation rather than deal Moreland and then pursue a bigger name in free agency or on the trade market. There’s also the possibility that the Sox might not want to block the position in the event that Devers needs to be moved to first base, as star prospect Michael Chavis is knocking on the door as a potential third baseman of the future. (Chavis himself has also seen some time at first base, plus young first baseman Sam Travis is still in the picture, albeit in need of a rebound from a lackluster Triple-A season.) All that said, there are some intriguing potential options and a move can’t be ruled out.
Catcher is another position where the team could theoretically stand pat with in-house options, as the duo of Christian Vazquez and Sandy Leon each posted outstanding framing numbers and were widely praised for their game-calling abilities. The Sox have enough big bats in the lineup that they could afford to devote one position entirely to defense, yet the near-total lack of offense generated by both Vazquez (42 wRC+) and Leon (33 wRC+) begs to be addressed in some fashion. Blake Swihart also contributed little at the plate while seeing some action at catcher as part of his super-utility duties.
The boldest move would be a trade for J.T. Realmuto, who will be targeted by every team in need of catching upgrades this winter. Vazquez or Swihart could go back to the Marlins as part of a trade package, though obviously Boston would need much more to pry Realmuto out of Miami. If the Red Sox aren’t willing or able to meet the Marlins’ price, they could aim lower by signing a free agent backstop like Kurt Suzuki or Robinson Chirinos or by taking over part of the contract of a pricey veteran such as Russell Martin. This would allow Vazquez to stay in the mix. The Sox have committed to him to some extent as their catcher of the future via their three-year contract extension, and Vazquez did post decent hitting numbers just in 2017. It remains to be seen exactly what the Sox will do with Swihart, who was kept despite a flurry of trade rumors last season, and whose stock has dropped even further after a forgettable 2018 season.
The experiment with Swihart as a utilityman led him to appear as one of the nine Red Sox players who played at least one game at second base last season, as the position became a revolving door thanks to Dustin Pedroia’s recurring knee problems. The longtime face of the Boston franchise was limited to just three games last season, leading the Sox to rotate several players through the keystone before Ian Kinsler was acquired at the deadline to solidify the position, though Kinsler didn’t play particularly well.
It’s an open question as to how much Pedroia will be able to contribute next season, especially since Dombrowski isn’t yet certain if the veteran infielder will be ready for Spring Training. Given Pedroia’s status within the organization (and the $40MM still owed to him through 2021), the Sox may have to hold off on any moves to address second base until they get more clarity on Pedroia’s health. If Pedroia isn’t an option, another in-season trade is likely, unless incumbent options Eduardo Nunez, Brock Holt, or maybe even longer-shot candidates like Chavis or even Swihart can all combine to handle the position.
A reasonably healthy and productive Pedroia, a step forward from Devers, and Vazquez returning to even his 2017 form would go a long way towards firming up three positions that were rather glaringly weak links last season. Even while receiving sub-replacement level production at second base, third base, and catcher all season, the 2018 Red Sox were still one of the best teams in recent baseball history. It’s a tribute to Cora’s work in the dugout and Dombrowski’s roster-building that Boston achieved what it did even with some notable flaws, and with another winter to address these areas and others, the possibility exists that next year’s Red Sox could be even better.
Sale, Porcello last year of contracts is 2019? JDM opt out? Bogaerts only controlled one more year Arb?
How much more will BoSox need to spend after 2019?
Sox will need to get under the Luxury Tax in 2020, so 2019 will be their last big shot at a title with the current group before they have to regroup after next season.
They don’t have the prospects to help them get under the luxury tax. When you have the 2nd-worst farm system in MLB, and your future draft positions are lousy, the only way to compete is by spending.
Think about that statement. Just because the farm as a whole stinks doesn’t mean they have a few prospects that can fill in some needed spots like 2nd base and contribute. I’m a Yankee fan and I’m stating this as an obvious response.
think about what ?? Yankees have a good farm and can trade away for what they need before players hit rule 5. Sox have nothing aside a few prospects. thier biggest need going foward is pitching to contend. either they dish out money or rebuild. after dd fired in 2021 they rebuild.
They get almost all their big contracts off the books after next season. Most of those guys are going to walk for draft pick compensation. They’ll have a bunch of picks and a bunch of cash to retool. They will also still have Devers, Benintendi, Betts as the young core. They will have plenty of resources to add whatever else is needed. They also have some decent prospects that will emerge and help out. Prospect rankings are mostly a guessing game anyway.
Only reaaon the system is low is because they built a WS team around Betts, Benintendi, Bradley, Bogaerts, Devers, Vazquez. They do need to pay those guys. They traded other guys who havent amounted to much to add Sale and Kimbrel to win and they did. No regrets, the system is restocking and if they are able to sign their own guys they only need a prospect at 1B or 3B in the next few years and any and all pitching that can contribute. This year Hanley, Kimbrel, Pomeranz are off the books. Next year Panda, Sale, Porcello, probably JD are off the books. They can sign their guys and one of those guys and be down payroll.
LOL, NotaGM. Sox must be in your head if you’re already dreaming of 2020/21. But your dreams will quickly turn into a nightmare after DD wins back-to-back championships and out maneuvers the field again to rebuild his team on the fly. DDisaGM and a LOT smarter than you or I.
Sox have young young LF, 3b, and catcher. Michael Chavis is mashing at AA and AAA and could very well move Devers to 1b. Sox have Jay Groome and Bryan Mata in system who both have upper staff talent. Sox will undoubtedly lose Porcello, Moreland, Pablo Sandoval, Eduardo Nunez, and Jackie Bradley Jr’s $ after next year. That’s about $60 mil off of books. Between Bogartes, Sale, and JD Martinez they’ll have enough to probably lock up 2 of 3 and still have enough to give insane $ to Betts. Sox window is wide open next year no doubt! However promoting a guy like Mata to replace Porcello in ‘20 has to happen and that’s probably a good thing. Sox have young power bats in minors and will use some as chips to get other cost controllable players. Sox have won 3 pennants in row, it’s not a fluke. The organization is healthy.
Silly Yankee rhetoric. Hicks, Betanxces will need huge $ to come back and Judge, Severino, and Sanchez are gonna have $ skyrocket soon. Oh yeah Didi gonna get paid or he’s out too. You’ve got ur own probs 2nd place
Or find the AL MVP in the 5th round of the draft.
The Sox can be over the tax as long as the owner is willing to foot the bill. They’re also nearly a lock to be over simply due to current contracts and arb raises. Their best hope at staying under would be JD opting out/leaving and not resigning Bogaerts and/or Sale.
Yeah, I think your scenario is exactly what will happen. After next season they have a ton coming off the books(Porcello, Sale, Bogaerts, Panda, JDM(most likely) and others). I’m pretty sure they will try to reset the tax in 2020.
I expect just about all their free agents to leave after next season. I think they could even consider trading one or 2 of those guys next season to avoid merely getting a 4th round pick back when they do go.
Porcello actually has 2 more years left on his contract fyi.
“Several important players are approaching FA; Sale, Porcello, and Bogaerts are all only controlled through 2019; Betts, Bradley hit FA after 2020.”
J.D. Martinez can opt out after any of the next 3 seasons.
Which will keep them all motivated for 2019.
Porcello is set to make $21.12M in 2019 and then be a FA FYI.
Exactly. They should load up now. Pile on and pound down.
Agreed that BOS needs to keep the pedal to the metal not only to remain atop the NL East, but to burn as many years of Stanton/Judge as possible
Don’t worry Stanton/judge will burn the years themselves.. by being injury prone and striking out 400+ times combined lol
Boston hasn’t had an NL East team since the 1950’s.
The additional money needed to re-sign Xander, Sale and JD will come from the subtraction of Hanley’s, Panda’s and Porcello’s contracts to name a few (that’s $65M annually saved right there!). If they re-sign Evo & Pearce and sign a stud reliever they should be all set. With the 2nd-worst farm system in MLB they can’t afford to trade their few remaining prospects for unnecessary players like Realmuto. If Nunez can finally stay healthy, give him the 2B position in the event Pedroia can’t play.
Did you count Pablo’s buyout? $60M left
Arb raises? $40M-$50M. Trickier than you think. (Mookie is owed a BIG raise, his final year of Arb)
Panda’s buy out is only 5M for 2020. He will count 18.5 MM against the 2019 cap.
If the Sox need 40-50 MM for Arb raises in 2020 it will mean they won another WS in 2019.
I meant $40-50M left. Down from his $65M. That’s $10M-20M est. in Arb raises.
$40-50MM left for what? Panda is only owed 18.5M for 2019 and 5M for 2020; hardly big numbers for the Sox to absorb.
As for the arb raises , that’s a function of Theo & Ben’s good work in having a great farm to build this team around. DD spent some of that prospect capital to finish the job and won a WS. If your players graduate to becoming MLB stars you have to pay them unless you trade them. They traded some but it appears they kept the right ones which will cost them big $$$. So far its been well worth it .
Mookie will actually not be owed a big raise as it will pertain to the luxury number/payroll. When he becomes a free agent he will already be making 20-23 million against the Sox payroll so figure they will have to come up with about 10million aav to give him this “BIG” raise
That’s not $65M annually because it’s only 1 year. Bogaerts/Sale/JD (if he opts out) is likely in the $75-80M/year for at least the next 4 depending on how long they would resign JD for. Then there’s the whole matter of Betts likely making $25M in his last year of arb and then a potential $300M contract.
Oh and trade their few remaining prospects for Realmuto? BOS could give MIA the ability to pick and choose from their farm and it wouldn’t happen. BOS would have to give MIA pieces from their MLB roster.
Plenty if they want to keep up with the Yanks. 2019 off season seems to be promising as well. Names like,
Arenado, Sale, Martinez, Trout and Goldschmidt will/ or might hit the market. They better retool, because if the Yanks dip deep into this one with Manny, then next yr win Trout/or Arenado/or Goldy or two of those, Boston is in big trouble for yrs to come.
Xander will get at max the same contract as Altuve 5 years at 150 million.
Sale is a huge question mark, as does he once again fade down the stretch, or does his injury finally make him go the surgical route.
If JDM opts out, he’s not going to make that much more of AAV then he already is.
The big money is gonna go to Betts, and we’ll see what he gets after Harper and Machado sign(or a Trout extension after those 2 sign.)
The luxury tax line continues to go up every year, and the CBA expires in 2021, so at that point any talks about contract will be a moot point as the whole system will most likely change by that point.
Just to answer your questions only concerning the players you posted, I’d say about +10 million aav give or take….
Sale makes 15m so you will have to add about 15m to your salary.
JDM makes 25m so they will have to add about 5m to their salary.
Xander makes 11m so they will have to add about 10m to their salary aav.
So to extend those three players they will have to pay roughly an additional 30mil Aav
Porcello makes 20m so subtract that because yeah…
Leaves you with about 10mil Avv they would have to add to their tax number…
This obviously does not include everything else like pandas 20mil coming off, smaller salary like Moreland 6.5, Nunez 5…. etc.
I think a realmuto trade scenario can be talked about by 29 teams
Whoever gets him will overpay unless an extension is done
Relief later on during the season shouldn’t be a problem. I see Travis Lakins and Feltman as MLB’ers by mid season at the latest, possibly Darwinzon Hernandez as well
Big issue is what about Eovaldi. porcello isn’t coming back after 2019 making 20m again. If can resign Eovaldi for 3/40-50m, just about have to gamble on that, especially with no legit front end SP arms in the system, outside of injured Jay Groome..
Forget signing any IF.. They have loads of depth with marco Hernandez coming back, along with Quiroz as well from injuries.
Hoping the Sox work out JDM at 1B next Spring and plan to use him there quite a bit in 2019. It’s amazing that he’s never played there before.
What’s the point of moving JD out of the DH slot? Moreland is a stud defender. If anybody should eventually move to 1B, it’s Devers.
Primarily so he can play there in Interleague games(or World Series games). There is nothing wrong with having the roster be more flexible next year. He’s also a terrible outfielder and would almost certainly do better at 1B. This would allow the Sox to rotate the DH spot more in 2019, as well.
If he’s able to play the position, it’s a great idea. Devers is not a platoon partner for Moreland. Both are left handed. Also you can’t count on the knee of Nunez getting better as he gets older so he can play a good 2B, something he’s never done his entire career. He’s a part time 3Bman, emergency only 2Bman and SS and a back up DH should an injury create an opening.
Realmuto and Dan Straily for Christian Vazquez, Michael Chavis, Bryan Mata and a lower level flyer prospect.
BoSox get an upgrade offensively behind the dish while keeping Leon as a defensive option and Swihart as a utility option. Straily could be a nice depth piece (Marlins get his salary off the books to give younger pitchers an opportunity). They also get Chavis as their 3B of the future, while using Brian Anderson in RF, and Mata as a potential mid rotation arm. Vazquez is locked up for the next three years so he could be a part of what the marlins are building and serve as a good defensive/positive framer for the Marlins young pitchers.
Miami would not do such a trade. Such a package could and would easily be beat by other teams. Boston would have to give up Devers plus for Realmuto–only way they’d have a chance of getting him.
There’s Zero Chance of Rafael Devers Being Traded,
They said the same thing last year when Stanton was Traded “it will Take Devers”
There’s a huge difference though. Realmuto is the best catcher in the game and is very, very valuable. Stanton had the albatross contract connected to him. Their trade value isn’t near the same.
Yeah, that’s fine, then Realmuto will be going elsewhere. The point is that the Sox don’t have the farm to get Realmuto without going to their ML roster.
Forget Realmotto to Boston. -0- need for a catcher upgrade when the offense is as deadly as it is and the catcher’s they have are at least superb defensively. It is just nonsense for some fans to have pipe dreams and want more offense when they could use more prospects, or future starters instead.
Stretch cmon now pal with this trade offer.
Take off Dan Straily
Add Swihart to the Group of Vazquez, Chavis
& Mata. those 4 should be able to push
the Deal across.
& LoL at wanting Devers in the Trade
Rafael Devers is Untouchable.
If Miami says No to that Trade Offer.
You Tell them to suck it & move it
Cause if you go higher, it’s a Definite overpay
Lol. Not even close to pushing a deal across. Lol at thinking you’re getting one of the best catchers in baseball with … crap.
Swihart has never done anything to suggest he’s a competent big leaguer, let alone a utility player. I don’t understand the appeal of Blake Swihart.
Interesting trade scenario. Catching has been an issue.
Nice article Mark. A few additional points:
1. Feltman is a big part of the 2018 picture and should be ready by June;
2. The three catchers allows Cora to PH in the close games and still have Blake as a security blanket;
3. DD has way too much invested in Thornburg to non-tender him.
4. Lin & Marco Hernandez give them depth at AAA.
Eovaldi is the only big signing they need now. The rest can wait.
Agree on Feltman, a college closer on a big time program should develop quickly. Swihart could also be a cheap option as a righthanded platoon at first and cover a few other positions as well. Would like to see him get regular ABs.
Wander if the Red Sox might be interested in a Schoop for Thornburg and Blake Swihart trade?
No, they wouldn’t. They have better internal options.
Losing Kimbrel, Eovaldi, and Joe Kelly potentially could hurt that bullpen, I would predict they at least keep Eovaldi and let Kimbrel and Kelly take bigger contracts elsewhere.
They will resign Eovaldi and sign Herrera on a cheap 1 year “prove it” deal and let Kimbrel and Kelly walk.
Eovaldi is going to demand a multi year kings ransom to resign….and he’ll certainly test the free agent market for the best deal.
Exactly how much money does Boston have……
The Sox ownership has plenty…NESN doesn’t hurt to have in the portfolio. John Henry alone; Principal owner of the Boston globe, Liverpool football club, the Sox obviously, co-owner Rouch-Fenway racing.
He was the founder of his own investment group, not what it once was, but still. Imagine his net worth is in the billions and his baseball team just sold more merch worldwide due to a championship. I wouldn’t be concerned with how much money the Sox have to play with or how they use it. Just keep putting a fun to watch, quality team on the field.
Cora will keep players around, just have to give them competitive contracts.
DD showed constraint at the deadline this year, hopefully the trend continues…but who traded from the farm has really planned out so far?
Remember Cheringon gave out most of these bad contracts against this current leadership.
How come Carson Smith is a free agent?
They outrigthted him
Did DD kill the farm???
the trade to the Padres how’s that prospect working out??? DL
white Sox trade…prospect has TJ surgery and the other needs to figure his strike out issues.
Brewers: they won that one
Mariners: Carson who
in thé end we held onto our core.
I think they’re still paying Castillo for another couple of years.
They are still paying him (quite a bit of money) but as long as he doesn’t get called up to the big leagues (which he won’t unless he is absolutely tearing the cover off the ball, and not just hitting singles) his contract doesn’t count towards the luxury tax.
Thanks I wasn’t sure how that worked. At least when the Sandoval contract goes away they’ll have some maneuvering room.
Wow, those arb rates…ouch. I suppose that’s the cost of developing your own players and have them turn out to be stars. Any Evil Empire would love to have such a home grown core of players. Wait, what?!?
I’m liking where they’re at on all fronts. Closer is probably the only position unsettled IMO, but there are plenty of arms on the market to plug in.
It’s kind of strange not having BOS in on any of the big names this off season. Seems like they’re always paired w this FA or that FA. Should be quiet which is fine w me.
Please… no one go on Bumgarners motorbike expeditions or Jeff Kent’s charity car washes. Stay healthy and run the table again. Go Sox!!
The Red Sox estimated 2019 payroll, right now, is $219M. (the one that counts towards the luxury tax). The actual money they have to spend is $230M (includes luxury tax and the Castillo contract).
This year, they spent ~$250M. That’s probably their limit again, because it just doesn’t make financial sense to spend more. Their revenues are pretty much locked in place no matter what (TV revenue is fixed for years, ticket sales are limited by the trashcan they play in)….and even if they do squeeze out a little more revenue by spending over $250….they get taxed on it twice: with the luxury tax, and by the revenue sharing tax… leaving them with less than half of the money). So it’s a losing proposition, all the way. John Henry might as well flush that down the bowl, that’s how wasteful it is.
So they have $15M to spend, at most (and pay ~$5M luxury tax on it).
Furthermore, they’re locked into a high payroll for 2020 and 2021, too. At ~$160M in each of those years, that’s by far the highest in the majors right now. So they can’t spend, they need to start filling positions with young, affordable talent. Not sure where from, because they gave the farm away, but we shall see.
The Red Sox can spend more than 250. It doesn’t have to be about matching revenue dollars. They pull in plenty of revenue. It’s about how much they actually want to invest in the roster. Not how much they can spend. They can spend close to 300MM if they want to. I don’t think you’re going to see the Red Sox hard cap themselves at 250. 2017 had the Red Sox revenue at 457 million. So somewhere north of that was the figure for 18. Just because the Red Sox are spending their money and other teams are penny pinching at that level doesn’t mean it has to be that way. Take for example the Yankees. They pulled in 619 MM in revenue in 2017. 619 million dollars. If anything it should upset you that teams like that don’t spend to their financial capability more often. Boston will eventually have to reset this penalty but 2019 isn’t the year they need to penny pinch.
The Red Sox don’t have a history of spending beyond their means. 2018 was actually by far the most they spent. They hardly ever went above $200M before (including in 2017, when they drew the line at $210 (they came in under the luxury tax because the Castillo money doesn’t count).
The policy seems to be to stay well under 50% of total revenues. 2018 is the only deviation from that, and barely.
So the notion that they would spend $300M, which is over 60% of the revenues they could expect, sounds like a fantasy. Only team that could possibly afford that is the Yankees, and even they will probably stop at $250M, for now.
I mean that 300 million number wasn’t meant to be taken literally. But the idea that they couldn’t budget up to that number and still turn a profit is simply false. Their payroll is the largest obligation and if their revenue is 500 Million dollars they can still manage to be profitable off a payroll that’s near that level. Ownership wouldn’t love their margins at that point but it’s not as if they couldn’t afford to do It. They obviously can’t add long term commitments that would keep them at a level that high but for another year, yeah. Yankees can 100% afford a 300 million dollar payroll without blinking an eye. The Yankees have been making money hand over fist with these sub 200 million dollar payrolls.
John Henry is worth $2.6 billion. Sports teams are trophies for their owners, not main revenue sources (unless your the Mets). If the team breaks even he’s probably happy. My guess is if they want to spend, they will. Its probably more about optics than actual spending. None of the richer teams (LA, Yankees, Red Sox, etc.) want to blow the less wealthy teams out of the water.
The Red Sox are going to be just fine. They will have another high payroll next year depending on the free agents that sign. The Red Sox with current arb numbers are around 207 million that’s what it seems like to me unless you want to count Rusney’s buried contract. My guess is they will go to about 235 – 240 million this year so they have about 30 million to play with for 2018. It will be interesting to see what they do with their free agent dollars not even going to guess what DD does.
Stansfield your numbers for Boston in especially 2021 are way off they don’t have 160 million committed I’m not sure how you are coming up with those numbers.
I’m sure the Red Sox will see how things go next year if they are hot again and look like a contender I’ll trust that they will go for it. If they get some injuries and don’t look like that are going to contend then DD will have a decision to make.
Watching Eduardo Rodriguez run the bases in the postseason was one of the worst things I’ve ever seen in a professional baseball game. Absolutely dogged it. He’s a sure fire lock for their rotation though. The guy could breakout this year. Definitely has great stuff.
After Wright hurt his knee at Dodger Stadium, I wouldn’t be surprised if Cora told E Rod to not run hard. Especially given E Rod’s surgically repaired knee.
Maybe so but that wasn’t even a jog. He looked like the most unathletic man alive.
Let Kimbrel and Kelly walk, but no closer-by-committee, please (visions of Chad Fox). I just wouldn’t sign a closer long term, nor do I trust the erratic Kelly who was equally as bad as he was good in 2018. Eovaldi will be the Dexter Fowler of this year’s free agent class – he’ll be overpaid. Plan to be without Pedroia. I think the 2018 Sox benefited from the change in leadership that came with Pedroia being sidelined. Lastly, if you can find a team willing to part with a bag of baseballs for Swihart, take that bag of baseballs.
It’s too bad that I agree w you on Kelly. He would dominate as a closer if his control was more consistent. In a perfect world, Eovaldi as a closer would be great. I think they’ll both be gone.
Chad Fox…that still gives me heartburn.
BoSox fans are unrealistic. The best team in MLB and a post season romp isn’t good enough. There shall be no value-for-value trades, all trades, past and future, shall be absolutely lopsided in the BoSox favor. The minor league system shall be impossibly unrealistic. All levels shall have deep rosters of HOF calibur players. Otherwise, the BoSox fan declares the following: Complete Failure! Incompetency and Corruption! Fire Management!
Idiot.
Yeah, it must stink to be a Pirates fan
Anyone else think that Dave Dombrowski looks a little like Mr. Rogers based on the pic on MLBTR?
In that they have an aged, slumping look?
I can’t see how most fans see their team operating in some form of stasis. Things change everyday; you have to react everyday. The one thing DD has shown is that he’s not afraid to act. Ya, he’s wrong sometimes; who isn’t? But does anyone doubt the Sox will be going full throttle next year again?
It’s not unlike opening day rosters; fans make such a big thing out of them. The season is fluid, not fixed; so is the roster. For all the whining about the Sox farm system, they had enough to get Pearce, Eovoldi and Kinsler….that’s a pretty good system, IMHO.
Don’t worry about what happens Betts 2 years from now; he could break his leg this year. All you have to do is plan for about April, 2019….then go from there,
Bob its not the Sox fans whining. Its the trolls harping. For all the talk about big $$$ FAs — the WS roster had only 4 FAs on it. 1. Price 2. JD — a bargin at those $$$; 3. Moreland — a bigger bargin, and Nunez — a good value at the price.
Peter Gammons this AM on the baseball channel said: “farm systems exist to get you a championship”. 2018 was the product of a good mix of draft, trade and FAs.
In a personal note I saw your namesake hit a walk off at Fenway in the sixties; if he only could have hit the curve . I was sorry to see him die so young.
Ah, Big Bobby…#10……..couldn’t hit anything with a wrinkle…..but he LOOKED like a hitter…….
As I’ve always said, I’m very confident that the Sox will never “tank” (a pile of BS if there ever was one) or go try to sell their fan base that they’re worried about the silly Luxury Tax, while their team is making a gazillion dollars. They’re in it to win it every year. Ya, they have gobs of revenue….they also spend a higher percentage on their payroll. If every MLB team did that, as they should, you wouldn’t have the Reds or the Padres or the Rays, teams that (to paraphrase Rosenthal) are always playing for a tomorow that never comes. Again, if it wasn’t complete BS, those teams would shrink ticket prices while they “tank”; whose doing that?
And they’re gonna goof…as I said, who doesn’t? The game’s too accidental to be right every year. But at least they try.
They were still paying Pablo, Craig and hanley even if they weren’t on the roster. and still paying rusney Castillo as well
I’m really curious to see how the Red Sox stay competitive in a few years. I think they will. I’m just curious how. They are set to lose some awesome players.
The Red Sox seem like a perfect team to grab Marwin Gonzalez. He would bandaid their infield.
The Astro payroll is about to grow quite a bit too. But you got some bright people out there.
It boils down to this. Marwin was a heck of a guy to keep around when he was cheap….now he’s not so cheap. So smart organizations that are more revenue-challenged than the big boys have to make hard choices. Easy, it ain’t. But Houston has shown a pretty good talent for navigating it.
Just so everyone understands, the red Sox are not going to have to find 30 million aav to extend betts, 30 million aav to extend JDM, 30 million to extend Sale. These players are already on the team with decent contracts counting against the payroll, in other words they are due raises. So example A. If the red Sox extend JDM after this season for 30million a year, as opposed to the 25million they already pay him, = they have only added 5 million to their payroll…
They stay competitive by giving the money to their young core just like the Astros will need to as well. They wont have this same team in 2020, they will need a few pieces to hit from the farm, especially arms but they’ll have money and the heart of the team to build around unless they can’t sign their guys.
Nice quiet offseason. Let Kimbrel sign elsewhere, let Barnes or Brasier try the role. If it doesnt work you can get bullpen help in July. If any catcher goes please be Leon. I’d keep all three, expect a better season from Vazquez, similar to 2017 offendively. Swihart started hitting when he played more. Use him as third catcher and platoon option at first and fill in at other positions to get 400 ABs, then we will know what he brings. Rotation is good, just add a bullpen arm or two if there is s steal. If not go with Hembree, Velazquez, Brasier, Barnes, Thornburg, Poyner, Johnson/Wright.
Don’t get too excited about Brasier….he of the 2 years of service between then and now.
Relievers come and go and this guy has all the markings of GOING big time…..don’t get persuaded by what he did this last season…
Vasquez sucks as a hitter and always will…..his defense is over-rated based on the team winning.
Rotation will undergo changes next year and the Sox have many decisions to make as the 2019 season unfolds.
Brasier is just an option, a very cheap one who could repeat last year. Vazquez hit .270+ in 2017. Not going to do a lot of damage but he’ll hit better than .250 going to RF. Also controls the bat well enough to do things like hit and run. Catching defense is all reputation since the only real metrics only show when something is bad like passed balls. Vazquez is a plus defender.
The redox are already paying JDM 25 million a year on their payroll so the resign him at 30 million a year will only require 5 million in space.
Xander Bogaerts will be making around 12 million against sox payroll so to resign him will probably only cost the Sox another 8 million
Chris sale will make about 15 million, so to extend him would cost about an additional 15million a year
To extend all of those players it will only cost the red Sox about 38 million more annually than they are already getting paid.
Hanley, Pablo, porcello, Moreland, Kimbrel, Nunez, Leon…. etc. have all or will all be off the books by this time next year. That more than accounts for arb raises and the 38 mil aav required to extend the above mentioned..
Betts will be making about 22 million, so when he resigns they will only have to add about 10million to their payroll.
Are you writing the checks for these guys?
Your math is way off…..and the Sox payroll based on what your talking about is going to eclipse $250-$275 Million.
Nobody on the world champion Sox is going to sign cheap!
They’re not born in Boston, nor do they live in Boston year round….ie….they will sign for the most money they can make!
Dude are you slow? What are you talking about?
So your telling me that JDM will not sign a contract worth 30 million a year? Really?
And xander is going to make more than 22 million per season??!
DUDE….I think you are SLOW!!!!!
these guys are coming off a World Series championship and they will ask for the world……what reality are you living in?
AGAIn….are you writing the checks from your account?
Dude Xander bogaerts will not be coming off a World Series next off season when he hits free agency unless the Sox win again in 2019, same with Jdm and sale.. that’s #1. And #2 nobody is predicting bogaerts value to be above 22 million a year… jd just signed at 25 million per and being 2 years older when he hits free agency again, I highly doubt he will get much more than 30 million per season
So you think next offseason gms are going to negotiate a contract with Xander and be like, gee Xander it looks like the redsox won the World Series the season before last so we can just pay you anything your little heart wants.
As of right now none of those players will get 5 million more aav then I noted. Xander bogaerts is not going to get 27 million dollars a year next offseason because he won with the red Sox in 2018. Unless he has a monster year in 2019, his average annual value should be between 20-24 million next offseason.
I’m going to let you both in on a secret. A players FA value isn’t determined by whether he won the WS.
Wow that’s news to me thanks man…
Obviously I am not the one arguing that it is…
However in Rocky’s defense, it can influence negotiating, (IF) the player preformed well in the post season..
Put in an easier way for you to understand…
After the 2020 season…
The only contracts against the payroll exceeding 5 million or so will be as follows…
David Price 28 million – against tax number
Dustin pedroia 14 million
Rafael devers- estimate 7 million
Benintendi – estimate 11 million
Erod – 8 million?
So 68 million… per season…
Tell me again how they can not afford jdm, sale, betts, bogaerts?
The Red Sox had a great year and made lots of mistakes they can correct. They should remain highly competitive if their health is good (minimal key injuries), their approach at the plate stays consistent (looking for contact with 2 strikes) and their pitching aggressively throws strikes early in counts. They have one huge defensive liability that needs to either improve or change positions. Without his errors they ranked first in defense. They have to continue to beat up bad teams and play even with the top teams.
The future is bright in Boston! The farm system is very unpredictable. When we had a top farm system, it war ranked high but the players didn’t produce as expected when they went to other teams. Now our system is supposedly weak. Is there any reason to think that rating is any better than when it was strong but wasn’t? Flukes happen all the time. The Yankees had back to back flukes in Sanchez and Judge. Sanchez progressed very slowly then got his promotion and went crazy. Judge followed a similar path. Guys pop out of nowhere all the time. There are very few sure things and so many guys who succeed at A ball jump in their rating then fall back later. I’m hoping we find a few flukes in the coming years to make the farm system contribution greater than it was in 2018.
For Bruin1012…. I would love to give you a Christmas gift …. a Devers who can field, throw accurately and have plate discipline!! I’ve asked Santa to give you that in 2019!!! I hope he comes through!!
Without a doubt the Red Sox will have some tough decisions to make in the next few years. I think they will be just fine this year and should contend again barring key injuries. After the 2019 season then we will see what Boston decides to do. These things tend to work themselves out I believe. Hey the Red Sox are World Series Champs so this team accomplished the goals set out for them. Take another run at it and see what happens then start making hard decisions after 2019.
What is Boston going to do with Betts that is the real question and do you really want to sign a guy who relies on quick wrists and speed as much as he does to a 10 year contract. Betts reminds a little bit of Andrew Mcutchen who had a similar skill set and just fell off the immensely when his hand quickness finished a little. I’m not saying don’t sign Betts but I’ll bet he is going to be elite and demand a 40 million a year contract when he hits free agency I really wonder if signing him for 10 years at the age of 28 is going to be a good idea.
KD I’m not going to worry about Devers he just turned 22 he will be just fine. He is plenty quick enough and has a good arm to play 3rd. If he doesn’t improve this year then maybe I will start to question whether he might not be a third baseman but I’m not judging a guy that was 21 most of the season on his abilities. Let’s talk about next season see how he improves because he is going to be there everyday third baseman.
Bruin, I mostly agree with your comment. On Devers , I would add that he made fewer errors per chance as the season went on. On the roster I think the one move they need is Eovaldi. He solidifies 2019 and will be a replacement for Porcello or Sale in 2020. If you go to roster resource it is clear that with Eovaldi, even if Pedroia and Wright can’t come back they still should be fine until June when rentals will be available.
I agree on Eovaldi he seems like the one guy they should sign depending on how high his market goes plus he has pitched really well against that heavy right handed Yankee lineup.
Sox window is 1 more year, then the reset button will be hit. Possible sale of team with the books clearing up and Yankees should be the front runner for 3-5 years.
NYY fans have been saying that they are the favorites for the last six years as the team won exactly ZERO AL East div. titles while spending 1.5 BILLION $$$ and won an average of 88.5 games a yr. Please win something first, then brag.
I do not doubt that the NYY could close the deal if Cashman uses his prospects as capital. G. Cole would have been a good start.
I went back to see how Dever’s .926 fielding percentage compared to our previous 3Bs and found that in 1983 Boggs made more than 24 errors but his fielding percentage was still .021 higher at .947. So getting better with age might help but we haven’t had many 3Bs make over a dozen in over 150 games played per year and he’s double that in 118 games. That’s not a minor problem, that’s a huge problem. 40 years of history shows just how bad he is. If he cuts back to half as many errors he’d still be the worst in 40 years!! These are facts not opinions so pardon me if I’m not optimistic that he can improve enough to become “average” on defense. I will be rooting for what you are hoping for but realistically he needs to move or be moved for someone who can field and hit. I have nothing against the kid except that his performance suggests he’s playing the wrong position.
Check our history of errors, there have not been many years where we’ve had players exceed 12 in a 150 plus games. 24 in 118 is by far the worst. You’ve declared on multiple occasions that he’s getting better, to me that’s scary because an improved Devers is still making twice as many errors as anyone in the last 40 years..
Maybe his 22 year old season will be a miracle season for him and he’ll turn the corner, but if he has a dozen by the end of May like this year, can we revisit the topic because I sure don’t want to spend an entire year with a guy playing third making that many errors. He’s not good enough offensively to justify it. Based on what Hold did down the stretch, I’d rather see him at 3B. He will be better defensively and he showed some signs of becoming an everyday player. If he can’t sustain it, then lets get a FA 3B or trade Devers in a package for a legit 3B. Many teams will be out of it by June so let him try to prove himself then make the mid-season trade to upgrade for the second half.
Also haven’t had many 21 year old big league third baseman.