4:36pm: Eovaldi has received interest from “everybody and their mother,” a source tells Rob Bradford of WEEI. However, “truly serious suitors” won’t begin to stand out until after Thanksgiving, Bradford hears. The Yankees are among those who will at least consider Eovaldi, per Bradford.
8:59am: Free-agent starter Nathan Eovaldi has drawn considerable interest on the open market, according to the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo, who writes that the Brewers, Phillies, Braves, Angels, White Sox, Blue Jays and Giants join the previously reported Red Sox and Padres as early suitors for the right-hander. More teams may join the fray, Cafardo adds.
Although Eovaldi is a two-time Tommy John surgery recipient who only threw 111 regular-season innings in 2018, the soon-to-be 29-year-old still managed to significantly boost his stock. Across 22 appearances (21 starts) divided between Tampa Bay and Boston, Eovaldi pitched to a solid 3.81 ERA/3.60 FIP with 8.19 K/9, 1.62 BB/9 and a 45.6 percent groundball rate. Among pitchers who threw at least 100 innings, Eovaldi finished third in both average fastball velocity (97.4 mph) and infield fly percentage (15.7), tied for sixth in BB/9, and 12th in K/BB ratio (5.05). He also yielded a paltry .284 expected weighted on-base average, an even more impressive figure than the .293 real wOBA hitters registered against him.
After posting those strong numbers during the regular season, Eovaldi proved capable of shining on the game’s biggest stage for the Red Sox, who couldn’t have asked for more when they acquired him in July. Eovaldi surrendered just four earned runs in 22 1/3 postseason innings, helping the Red Sox vanquish the Yankees, Astros and Dodgers en route to a World Series title. The success Eovaldi enjoyed in October surely helped his stock heading toward the open market, where MLBTR predicts he’ll land a four-year, $60MM guarantee.
A lucrative payday for Eovaldi this offseason may have been unthinkable at this time last year, when he was still recovering from the 2016 Tommy John surgery he underwent as a Yankee. However, Eovaldi now has a clean bill of health. Dr. Christopher Ahmad, who performed Eovaldi’s most recent surgery, gave his right arm a ringing endorsement Friday, telling Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston: “To me, he’s over Tommy John surgery and he’s over revision Tommy John surgery. And I would consider him in the same category of somebody who has a healthy arm, and whatever worry I have about that player, I have the same or less for Nate.”
Adding to Eovaldi’s appeal, he doesn’t come with a qualifying offer attached, which isn’t the case with either Patrick Corbin or Dallas Keuchel – the only starters MLBTR projects to sign bigger contracts. Of course, Eovaldi’s resume isn’t on the level of theirs. While Corbin and Keuchel have offered superstar-caliber production at times, Eovaldi has generally performed like a mid- to back-end starter. Also a former Dodger and Marlin, Eovaldi owns a 4.16 ERA/3.82 FIP with 6.78 K/9, 2.74 BB/9 and a 46.8 percent grounder rate over 850 innings, and he hasn’t exceeded 125 frames in a season since 2015. There are certainly some red flags with Eovaldi, then, yet it’s still unsurprising that teams are lining up for his services.
Angels & Phillies would be perfect fits for Eovaldi but his injury history is a big concern.
Insurance covers any losses. They’ll make it work in Atlanta.
That’s only if the team pays for an insurance policy on the contract. A team generally doesn’t pay for an insurance policy on a somewhat low contract. The policy also doesn’t cover any losses. I believe Wright’s contract was covered at something like 50-75% but only if he missed X amount of games.
With his medical history, the cost would likely be rediculous IF an insurer would underwrite it at all.
Wright’s insurance is 75% coverage after 60 consecutive days on the DL. I doubt the Wilpons reinvest that money or Cespedes’ insurance money…but supposedly it’s a common structure for larger contracts.
I love this new narrative the ignorant fans put out now. They got tired of being insulted when they shouted collusion! Laughed at when they say who cares it’s only money spend spend spend. This new narrative must be straight out of a Scott Boras playbook. Not every team pays for insurance. Insurance is expensive. Insurance usually only covers the team if the player doesn’t play at all
Now if he comes to LA why would it be the losing angels over the Dodgers? I think the Dodgers made take a shot at him
Did the Dodgers win the WS? I must have missed that. If he wanted to be with a winning team he’d stay with the Red Sox.
Good one!!! No rings in 30 years and counting!
At least they’re relevant today.
Relevant at not winning a championship in 30 years! Lmao
Every team thats wants to contend is a perfect fit. He throws 100 mph fastballs that dart
He did the same with the Yanks but didn’t miss enough bats. It’s his cutter I think that made him successful. Factoring in his health history, I would feel uneasy giving him more than a 2 year deal. 2/$30 plus innings and award incentives that can push it to $40 mil total value.
“Uneasy,” sure. But 2 years won’t get a deal done. Not when he’s coming off that major World Series performance. He’s going to get 4 years. I love what he did for my Sawx, and hope we can keep him, but 4/60 for a guy who probably won’t realistically be considered a 1-3 pitcher in the rotation… that’s kinda a lot. But who’s available that’s better and would be more valuable in the next inevitable post season? I’d prolly rather have Corbin, but the yanks are going to pay whatever for him.
His performance in the WS as great but talk about small sample side. I don’t think modern day GMs are swayed by such a showing to the point where they overpay. I would not be shocked if his deal ISN’T more than 2 guaranteed and a couple of vesting options. I think teams would be more willing to give him 2/$30 with $15 mil options. We won’t know until the market starts to form.
Sox need to save some money on the starting rotation and subbing Evo for Porcello next winter accomplishes that quite nicely. There is ZERO chance the Sox will acquire another $20M+ AAV pitcher if they are able to keep Sale, so you can forget about Corbin. The only $20M+ AAV contracts you’ll see from them will be contract extensions.
Here’s a comp: Rich Hill at 3/$45, and Hill was significantly older and had the if possible worse injury concerns. 3/$50M seems floor with 4/$75 attainable if bidding gets crazy.
Yes but HIll was coming off of an amazing 2016. Eovaldi has a much shorter resume of success. Some team might possible be too aggressive and might blow away the competitors but I think 2/$30 is the starting point. Time will tell where it ends up.
A staring point of 2/$30 would not even get you a meeting.. 3/$48 with a $2M buyout of a $15M 4th year is where he will end up.. he is only 29 and hits 100mph..after TJ surgery..
He’s 28 isn’t he?
There’s no better fit than staying with the Bosox. Evo is a Yankee killer, highly motivated because the Yanks gave up on him a couple years ago. He could easily slot in as the #3 starter after Porcello leaves in free agency next winter. We already know Evo loves it in Boston and obviously they provide the best opportunity for another championship.
Yanks didn’t “give up” on him. He had TJ surgery and was a FA.
He was a FA because the Yankees non-tendered him.
No, he was not a free agent. He was released by the Yankees, he had only 4 years service time and therefore was under team control. They didn’t want to pay him for the year and a half of recovery, and they didn’t think he’d be effective again. Tampa was willing to pay him for the recovery time, and they got a great return on their investment.
Nathan Eovaldi is a great fit for all 30 teams in MLB.
No idea why, but I picked Houston as his destination.
Not a bad idea with McCullers out for the year.
That’s the team I’m pinning him to as well.
I chose him to resign with Boston. But choosing a landing spot for Marwin Gonzalez was the hardest thing I’ve had to do.
Perhaps because he’s from Texas? During the WS, Fox made a point to stress how he was the second best player to come from his home town. Nolan Ryan being number one.
He’d be a great fit at home in Houston, but I personally feel a 4 year deal for him is a significant risk given his history. I think he stays in Boston though on a 3 year deal; say 3/50 mil.
I don’t expect that high of an AAV. I can though see more years if they agree on Lackey type injury protection.
I think pitching with Verlander did a lot for Cole. I think the same could happen with Eovaldi if he signed with the Astros. The fact that he’s from Houston makes the idea more intriguing.
Why would the Padres have interest. They wont compete for a good minute. Its gonna be LA and Colorado in the NL WEST. With Arizona being able to compete as well. Giants and Padres will be the bottom feeders til at least Samardzija deal is up. No one wants that contract or even his services.
4 year deal coincides with when majority of their assets will be mlb ready and have some mlb experience under their belt.
Plus hed cost them money and save them prospects. Those prospects could be used elsewhere to acquire a 3B.
Also, QO isnt attached meaning if he gets 50 mill or more padres dont lose draft capital.
As a giants fan the future looks brighter for the pads with young talent and a good farm. The giants have had a bottom feeder farm for almost a decade.
Perhaps the Padres should never be good?
Why do opposing fans get mad if they try and then also get mad when they don’t try?
Typical troll
His herkyjerk motion bothers me,seems like another injury waiting to happen?
Totally agree. 4 years would be a big mistake. Can’t deny how good he’s been this year so he should definitely get paid. I would think two year deal with a vesting option for a third with innings total would be the best move.
I can see four even perhaps five years IF he’s agreeable to including a John Lackey type protection provision into the contract.
Agreed. The injuries are a result of his mechanics.
Or, a result of throwing a small ball 100mph repetitively. Which is a precursor to injury for a lot of people.
Pitching is dangerous for your health, full stop.
So tough to predict where he signs due to being 2 time TJ surgery survivor. Yes, he was throwing 101 in playoffs and given clean bill of health by doctor but how many successful 2 time TJ survivors you kno?
Land mine or steal
google.com/url?sa=i&source=web&cd=&…
List at bottom of 2 tjs
Doesn’t look good for him going by that list
ey is looking svelte. Must be the jam
Who is Ey?
Svelte??
Toe jam?
Watings. Thanks for the drop. Good article. I agree with Xab., its hard to predict where he will go. Who wants to risk the most.
Sox babied him. They let him throw over 90 pitches once. Several starts he didn’t make it into the 5th, But damn he came up big in the post season.
There’s a few who have come back from two TJS as relievers, but I can’t come up with a single starting pitcher who returned to be a successful starting pitcher following two TJS. Now, it has been speculated that at the end of his contract (like year 3 or 4), he could become a closer — assuming his arm hasn’t fallen off by that time.
xabial…….Does that mean you no longer consider Dr. Christopher Ahmad “biased” since you found out he is the NYY Head Team Physician?
At least whatever team signs him will be insured when his arm falls off in June.
Insurance isn’t automatic.
Again, the cost would probably be prohibitively expensive given his history.
I think an interesting compromise for both sides would be a lucrative contract but structured like John Lackey’s deal with the Red Sox that dropped his guarantees for the year to the league minimum if he needed surgery.
He more than likely wouldn’t have to settle for something like that because of his market, but I don’t know if anyone expected Lackey to either. It’s at least something to think about.
Michael, I agree (and wouldn’t have written it above if I saw your post). My guess is Boston will look to do it again and I really don’t see anyone giving four years without it. I say five years, $69m with the Lackey protection included.
I love the idea, but with so many interested teams it would be highly unlikely that he would need to agree to such terms. Other pitchers could definitely benefit from that structure, as it could tempt other teams into the mix…just not Eovaldi.
You’d have to be desperate to go to the Padres
1) Padres only have $53 million committed in total payroll for 2019. Even with signing Hosmer, they can spend much more money than people think.
2) Padres have best farm system in game.
3) Factor #2 makes the Padres better able to spend now on MLB talent before their prospects debut, qualify for arb., and hit FA.
4) It’s San Diego.
I’m no fan of signing Eovaldi, but you’d be foolish to count the Padres completely out on him or any other FA.
Plus pitching in PETCO Park is a lot better than pitching in most other parks
Their particular farm system doesnt matter as they have generally always had good young talent, yet still do not compete and end up trading away said talent early on
Things can change. Just because they traded talent in the past does not mean the future is the same.
It absolutely does. As a FA, not only is the team you’re signing with making an investment in you, you’re making an investment in them (at least if you care at all about winning).
Put it this way, if San Diego or Baltimore were the last two bidders, the capability for future success (both immediate and long-term) should be a consideration. That said, FA systems play a role, along with other factors.
I am a lifelong Padres fan…and trust me, they HAVE NOT always had “good young talent”….generally or otherwise.That’s a myth. They’ve actually had more OVERLY-HYPED young talent than most franchises…but because the previous owners hamstring minor league funding, they never had the two things any credible sports franchise needs in order to flourish (money and top shelf, scouting/development). This is why Bruce Bochy and Kevin Towers were always considered “geniuses”…because in spite of cheap ownership, either one of them could always put a bullpen and pitching staff together.
And the Mets may very well keep “Thor”…but if you name a top shelf arm, that’s a few yrs away from FA, trust me, I can show you a team in the Padres that has the minor league pieces to get that guy.
Padres farm not better than ATLs
I get the knee jerk dig at the Padres…but it’s kinda silly to be so cynical, when you realize people like you said the same thing about the Astros, and Chicago, and even the Marlins , back in the day. Every team figures out how to get their act together…just takes some longer than others.
Who’s your team douchbag?
Astros
Have to agree with Dr. Ahmad. While having two TJ surgeries is something to consider, his arm is no more or less fragile than any other active pitcher. Pitchers are fickle and sustained health is always at a premium. Who knows where he ends up, so many teams to choose from that he fits in, but I’m guessing it will be a 2-3 year deal in the range of $30M-$42M pending years.
This is a bad contract waiting to happen. Forget about the likelihood (or hope?) that he gives you 500-some innings over the next four years,
I’m more worried about those 500 innings being of the upper 6’s k/9 upper 2’s bb/9 variety rather than of the upper 8’s k/9 upper 1’s bb/9 sort that he showed a glimpse of.
Yeah, that’s too many years for his injury history. We (Angels) got burned on the CJ Wilson contract for 5 years at $77.5mil. Then there’s Pujols and Hamilton. 2 years tops and see how it goes.
I’d like to see the Angels take a chance on him but not for 4 years. Maybe 2 at $30mil.
3 years is the max I’d offer this guy.
Only way he’d get a 4th if I was negotiating would be as an option for something like 540ip in the first 3 years and not end the season on the DL.
Nate’s the most interesting FA out there. I saw him in Tampa (decidedly “meh”) and Boston (inconsistent; just picked the big stage to throw the game of his life). But he’s worth at least 3/45, and probably will go higher. He’s from Nolan Ryan’s home town, and while that USUALLY doesn’t mean anything, the fact that the Astros have a need fits.
Awful lot of hype around a guy with a career 4.16 ERA and questionable mechanics. Eovaldi showcased himself, for that he deserves credit, but someone will overpay.
I have a feeling he will be one of the Phillies high AAV short term deals similar to Arrieta but not as high. 4 years $65-$70M with an opt out after year but with a team “override” that increase the last two years by $5M per. Dr. Ahmad’s word carries a lot of weight and I am sure Dr. Ciccotti of the Phillies will confer with him after reviewing records.
Padres…
I’m unsure why the Blue Jays are mentioned as having interest.
Sure he would be an upgrade. Sure he may have regained some value.
But he is not an ace, and we would need to seriously overpay him and likely be trading him at the deadline. If we overpay we aren’t getting good prospects back.
If he stays healthy and outperformed the deal, we would likely be losing him for nothing once we are competitive as we would be (hopefully) locking up the core kids and buying out FA years. Not spending it on a 33-34 year old #2
Just don’t see the upside for the Jays
I don’t know? So maybe ownership isn’t interested in losing 100 games and wants to field a decent, although unlikely to compete, team?
Why? So we can have the 20th pick and not make the playoffs
If we know we aren’t competing next year, we not try to be as bad as possible. Get more international money and a better draft position
If there was a 26year old FA SP on the market with a Harper/Machado pedigree, I would say throw as much money at them as it takes to woo them.
Evoldi is 29 and 2 TJ surgeries. We cant take that gamble
Turner you are right. If the Jays are entertaining the idea of Eovaldi for 4-5 years they should be all over Bryce Harper, which they aren’t. Doesn’t make much sense.
Draft position doesn’t matter as much as it does in a sport like the NBA. Any team that’s tanking just to get a high draft position for a player that might take 3-4 years to arrive are silly. Usually, there’s a greater overhaul that comes with it as the team struggles thru their young players growing pains. But that shouldn’t prevent them from signing guys like Eovaldi if they can be had in short-term deals. I’d rather sign Eovaldi to a 2/$35 mil contract than a 4/$60. If he has an above average 2019 they can still flip him for minor league prospects who’ve been vetted more and closer to helping the an mlb team. But that’s only if he needs a landing spot which may not be a need.
Few problems with your post imo.
1. The international pool is a big deal as many quality players can be had (which u neglected from your post)
2. Getting a better draft pick is beneficial now and 3 years from now, it can be used after its selection as a tradable prospect or can flourish into a replacement for a current prospect who falters
3. Evolidi isn’t signing a 2 year deal. Not with the Jays or anyone else
3/$45, 3/$50, or 4/$60 and anything higher just don’t seem realistic to me. Certainly Boston would have made the QO if they were willing to go 3/$50. These guys in the front office are not dummies. They know where the market will be within 5-10%. It’s also reasonable that he will probably not return to Boston, because no QO means they are only comfortable around 2/$30 or 3/$40, or even possibly less.
Spitball, Boston couldn’t offer him a QO because he was traded during the year..
I do agree with your contract estimates. Any more than 15M per year and the GM would be very foolish. My guess is the contract is loaded with incentives
If Boston could of given him QO then they would of for sure. They would love to have him take a one year 17.9 mil deal. Sadly he was not subject to a QO due the mid season trade. They would of QO him for sure if he was eligible to receive a QO.
I’m amazed we’re at the point where a 3.81 ERA is considered “solid”.
Yes, Eovaldi shined brightest at the right time, and I hope he gets a payday, but I wouldn’t offer him more than a 2 year deal with a mutual option for a 3rd.
What is the point of a mutual option
Both sides have to opt in, either side can opt out.
Eovaldi and the other top pitchers are going to get paid big time this winter. There are a lot of teams with money to spend on pitching, these free agents will be over payed.
I like Eovaldi, always have. Quite the arm. Whoever signs him is going to be happy with him for two-three years. History shows.
What about 4-5 years? With this much interest he would easily get that if including options.
Personally I don’t see his arm lasting a healthy 4-5 years, that is why I said 2-3 years.
All said and done. Hope Sox bring him back
I’m with you Chris. Especially if the contract is reasonable guaranteed money with incentives.
I wanted Eovaldi before the playoffs when he was expected to get 2/24, I don’t want him at 4/60
Please Yankees stay far away as possible from Eovaldi. Just because he had a goodposeason, don’t forget his time with the Yankees
Eovaldi has received interest from “everybody and their mother,”
Even Poppa Angelos and the Orioles?
I would be shocked if the Yankees don’t make a real run at Eovaldi. Nothing eats at them more than losing to the Red Sox. They will overspend on a Red Sox FA just to try to steal a little of their thunder… in their mind at least.
You do realize Eovaldi was a Yankee already. The Red Sox seem to be the ones loving the Yankee magic in Eovaldi, Nunez, Pearce
Wow, thanks Yanks for 3 role players, none of which brought any magic to NY and none who came from last playing for NY.
Remind me how many of those guys were Yankee World Series heros? That’s right… none.
It’s about the perception of taking them from the Red Sox not where thy played before. Pay attention.
Why else would they have signed Ellsbury to an albatross contract?
Boggs, Damon, Clemens as well?
Elsbury was an awful contract but not the Sawx was the AL and perhaps baseball in recent awful contracts that they bury in AAA of just release and keep signing more players like a typical big market team. The new evil empire sawx bought themselves a championship since we all know the Yanks did the same in 2009 according to Sox fan base.
I never got the feeling that Cashman was in love with Ellsbury. He seems to be too smart for that. The other guy Randy Levine is the one that pushed for the Arod extension and I wouldn’t be shocked if he was the one who pushed for Ellsbury too. But Elss was coming off of a really good season. But we all should’ve known his skill set probably wasn’t going to age too well. Gardner for example is showing signs of regression but he was on a team friendly deal.
Cashman is not smart. He’s a Steinbrenner lackey and a yes-man to the bone. He’s wasted more money on bad contracts then any GM by an unbelievable margin.
The Yankees will never be in on a player that they let go regardless of his current performance.
Time to move on!
Adam Warren, Dave Robertson and Aroldis Chapman all say hello!
Andy Pettitte would like a word with you about that… when he’s done with his delivery of HGH that is…
Have you even seen baseball?
Teams that don’t have short and long-term commitments (Phillies, e.g.) have a definite advantage with Nate, even more than with others. Front-load a deal to reward him for this past year (tho again, it was all about the WS), then cut your risks on the back portion. A 20-10-10 deal probably works and makes a possible (inevitable?) trip to the 60DL in future years palatable. That even works for a team like the Rays, who have next to nothing on the books next year.
Evoldi will go down as this years worst free agent contract
Dr. Ahmad doesn’t sign Eovaldi’s paychecks and when/if he fails, there will be the usual justifications as to why!
Don’t get too excited over a guy that had postseason success last year….that was last year and who knows what will happen forward.
Eovaldi and Kimbrel are beloved in Boston.
Boston will be in the mix for each of them.
They are beloved but let them both go for the contracts they can get. Sox already have Sale, Price, Porcello, ERod, Wright, Johnaon, Velazquez to fill the rotation. Closer can be filled by Barnes, Brasier, etc for a lot less. Durpin is developing towards a bullpen role.
You must be a romantic as its all about what you do for me know, regardless of what you did before! And, how much do you cost me?
They may be beloved but that does not mean keeping them makes sense
He even looks a bit like Carl Pavano…
To many teams involved driving up his cost, braves are out lol
His contract value should be similar to the QO that Ryu signed for 17.5 even Charlie Morton is going to get 2/30.
The most successful starting pitcher to date, who has undergone two TJ procedures is Chris Capuano. Let that sink in a bit. Two TJ surgeries is no joke, and just because Eovaldi threw some great games in the postseason shouldn’t take away from that fact. Now, everybody is different, and maybe Eovaldi provides great value over the course of his next contract, who knows. But history says success after two TJ surgeries is far from a guarantee.
How about a direct replacement for Kimbrel?
The Red Sox won the title, which takes the pressure off. Eovaldi, Sale and Price are ALL big health questions. I hope they let Kimbrel go and somehow find a way to deal Price. They really need to start looking at retooling this team, which is odd to say. The rotation doesn’t seem to have promise for the long haul. If you can get Eovaldi back for a decent price than do it. If not, then let someone else give him a top of the market deal.
He lands with the Giants. First of all they’ll have the financial flexibility with Pence’s contract gone and haven gotten under the luxury tax threshold last year. The other main factor is top notch hitters don’t sign with the Giants because of the AT&T dimensions but pitchers love the park.