As usual, Thanksgiving weekend brings a lull in the transactional market. We’ve yet to see a ton of movement at the top of the free agent class, so there isn’t much to digest on that front. But there has been one quite notable trade: four days ago, the Yankees landed James Paxton from the Mariners, as we wrote up in full at the time. That swap was significant enough to warrant further assessment from the MLBTR readership. After all, it sets the stage for both clubs for the rest of the winter.
For the Yankees, getting Paxton means saving some immediate salary as against a generally commensurate free agent arm. He’s an excellent hurler, albeit one with health questions. Notably, the organization added a high-quality piece at an area of need without adding any ink to the long-term balance sheet. That’s important whether or not the team has designs on any massive free agent outlays, as it will help maintain long-term flexibility.
Of course, the expectation remains that the Bronx Bombers will add another notable rotation piece while also exploring other intriguing assets on the open market. If the organization was operating under any financial limitations, whether via hard limits or soft ones, then it’ll now presumably be able more comfortably to absorb salary as it chases Patrick Corbin or another starter, Zach Britton or some other reliever, or perhaps top-of-the-market stars Bryce Harper and Manny Machado.
Nabbing Paxton obviously didn’t come free, though. The Yankees parted with two hurlers who could’ve contributed to the MLB staff now and for years to come in Justus Sheffield and Erik Swanson. Also heading out the door was an increasingly interesting, though not very widely hyped, outfield prospect named Dom Thmpson-Williams.
On the Mariners side, picking up those new pieces helps set the organization up for what it hopes will be a fairly brief reloading period. Sheffield has long been graded a top prospect, though many have come to doubt his upside (and his ability to stick in the rotation at all). Clearly, the M’s like his ability and think he can make good on his promise. While Swanson is not nearly as well-known, he seems to have a legitimate shot at turning into a productive MLB piece in Seattle.
Prioritizing near-term talent may have been a reflection, at least in part, of the sorts of offers that Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto received. But it likely represents a part of his stated strategy to target the opening of a new contention period in 2020 or 2021. There’s no reason to doubt that both of the hurlers will reach the majors at some point in the coming years, so they’ll each have a shot at carving out a role in what the front office hopes will be a cost-effective and capable pitching staff.
So, how do you grade this deal for both clubs?
In New York … (link for app users):
And on the Seattle side … (link for app users):
I’ll wait on Xabial along with jellEY
I’m gonna go with the spread.
That says a lot if you depend on others to form your opinion.
Matti
Haha
Dude has no mind of his own, just unhealthily obsessed with EY and myself. I feel bad for the kid, needs to get out more.
Welcome back.
Mom grounded you from the internet again?
So in other words you have no thought of your own so why bother Mr MetsYankeesRedSox
You know JKB, I’ ve been noticing that.
No mind of his or her own, cannot even pick a team he
likes, lol
Go Yankees!!
A for both.. Classic win-win…
I agree it’s a win-win but I think the Mariners should have gotten more in return. A for Yanks, B for Mariners
Paxton was coming off his worst season health-wise and performance wise, and with Corbin and Kikuchi in the FA market as LH starters you could think that the interest for Paxton was limited. The mariners did a good job of netting somebody who has good upside and is not too far away from a ML impact and could help them in 2019 and 2020.
Your analysis couldn’t be more wrong.
Explain why
If Paxton was coming off his worse year health wise, then he wouldn’t have set a career high in games started, or innings pitched. Performance wise it wasn’t his worst year either. And even if it was his worst year, he had a 3.23 FIP.
Adding he had more games started, more innings pitched and his second best seasonal WAR in his entire career. So explain why Paxton was coming off his worst season health-wise when he spent less time injured in 2018 than previous seasons?
Plus he threw a no-hitter.
This was one of Paxton’s healthiest and best years, so I’m not sure what you’re talking about?
Well, the simple fact that many local media outlets were reporting their teams interest in Paxton refutes the notion that the interest was limited.
crickets from baseball 1600
Paxton scares me but I think Sheffield was another Jesus Monteiro. A highly touted yank prospect that was destined to bust. Sheffield seems like a nibbler, afraid to throw strikes so he only lasts 5 innings a game. Those guys don’t last long in the bigs.
Paxton had career highs in starts, innings pitched and strikeouts while having a solid high 3s era, lower than he’s had in two other seasons.
You can’t just make stuff up. We have this thing called “the internet”. You can look thing up us know?
Not sure what the numbers were this year but last the avg mlb starter went 5.2 innings so if Sheffield can avg 5 he’d be about avg. Also let’s not forget Paxton is not exactly an innings eater
I don’t think it’s much of a big move for either team. Sheffield looks like he could be a decent reliever while Paxton is a #3 or #4 in the AL East. Pax is definitely an upgrade over Sonny Gray, though. Both teams get a “B” here.
He’s also going from pitching in an airplane hangar to pitching in a bandbox. We saw what that ballpark did for Sonny Gray’s career path. Paxton won’t like it much better. Gray was a 114ERA+ pitcher with OAK, while Paxton was a 117ERA+ pitcher with SEA. I would expect Paxton to be right around 100ERA+ with the Yankees. In other words, this trade does very little for them. On the other hand, giving up Sheffield doesn’t hurt at all.
There’s a difference between throwing 100 pitches in 5 innings and getting shelled so you come out early. That 5.2 stat includes every 1 inning start where someone gets shelled. If you only include pitchers that came out due to pitch count it’s over 6.
He also had 200+ strikeouts in 160 innings. If anything he is coming off a career year as opposed to worst year.
I also gave A for Yanks, B for Mariners. However, that does not mean the Mariners did not get the best package they could.
I don’t think it’s much of a big move for either team. Sheffield looks like he could be a decent reliever while Paxton is a #3 or #4 in the AL East. Pax is definitely an upgrade over Sonny Gray, though. Both teams get a “B” here.
As a Yankee fan, the Mariners won the deal. Have a feeling Paxton will just be a slightly better Sonny Gray and not really contribute. I was all for Cashman signing Corbin at first but he’s going to demand a bigger contract than Cashman will offer and he will do badly in the AL East I think. Cashman is smart and hopefully he can trade Frazier, Wade, and Stanton and pay part of his contract to acquire Syndegaard
He’s a 6’6 lefty that throws 100. How could you possibly compare him to Sonny Gray?
Gray had a terrific start to his career with Oakland but started to struggle and had career lows which led him to be traded to NY. Paxton had a terrific start to his career with Seattle but had injuries derail him and led him to be traded. Not too similar but I get where he’s coming from.
Sonny Gray came with own injury concerns.
Regardless, do not get the Gray comparisons. James Paxton has much higher upside.
The major difference is that Gray’s injuries have had a lot to do with his throwing arm in which is not the issue with Paxton. Gray’s velo was diminished as well as the bite to his secondary stuff because of it. I expect Pax to do a lot better than Gray in the Bronx but ya know… crazier things have happened..
Gray in his prime was better than Paxton in his prime. Just saying.
And for all that disagree, check the stats and tell me the statistics in which Paxton outperformed Gray, I checked and didn’t see many.
I’m pretty sure he meant the guy was gonna flop when he got to NY like Sonny Gray did. Hence the “and not really contribute”. You’ve been called out
True! Sonny Gray is a million dollar arm with a ten-cent head. He couldn’t handle the pressure of the Big Apple.
It’s not about what you did 4-5 years ago…
It’s about what have you done for me lately.
Upside? Paxton is a year older than Gray. I think we’ve seen the “upside” from him at this point.
The comparison wasn’t to Sonny Gray, but to Sonny Gray’s output as a Yankee. The statement could very well be accurate, or he could pitch lights out and win a Cy Young award.
Flippin, the comparison between Gray and Paxton in my view is with respect both were previously pitching in big ballparks without the NE press and rabid fanbase. Add in they both had an injury history and there are comparisons to be made until Paxton pitches in NY and we see what Gray does once again wearing a non-pinstripe uniform.
agreed Flip
Yeah, you should compare him to other tall people
Genuinely laughing at the “Trade Stanton” crowd. Even if he’s never an MVP again he’s a .270 hitter who will hit 40 home runs every year, yet you want to pay him to play somewhere else? Lunacy.
Wilpons will never deal with the Yankees, either.
The most will most definitely deal with the Yankees if they feel they have a tremendous shot at coming out ahead of them on the deal thus making the Yankees look bad
But the Yankees FO are smarter than Mets FO so theyll never get such a deal
No they won’t. The Wilpons are so afraid of losing a trade to the Yankees they’d turn down Aaron Judge for Todd Frazier.
lolol, so true Adam
If you think Gray and Paxton are even comparable… Clueless.
Yankees received ace potential. Mariners got a decent return, but I agree it should have been more. Worked well for the M’s still.
Paxton is only ace potential if they give him whatever the Astros give to their acquisitions.
They’re two totally different pitchers. We didn’t trade for Zack Greinke. Get friggin real.
What? It would take a lot more then Frazier, Wade, and Stanton to get Syndergaard. Any Syndergaard deal would likely start with Andujar or Torres. Gotta love the delusional fans that think their team can acquire another team’s star player and just part with scraps. Sorry but Stanton isn’t going anywhere if they would have to pay down his deal. Yankees aren’t going to pay for him to play somewhere else. Wade is far from a headlining piece in a blockbuster trade and Frazier as a headliner wasn’t enough to land Cole last year so he definitely won’t be enough for Syndergaard. Mets want top prospects.
You’re claiming Yankee fans are unrealistic to trade Frazier, Wade and Stanton but…you’re the delusional one if you think Sydergaard could bring more than that – a NL MVP, and 2 Top 10 prospect for a #3 pitcher with health concerns? Get over yourself, dreamer.
Frazier has had 3 shots at staying on a ML roster and failed, also has vertigo issues which is a big red flag, WADE- is a 2B, Mets will let Jeff McNeil have 2B because in 225 AB he hit 329 vs. Wade’s 124 AB w/161 BA. And NO ONE WILL TAKE STANTON AND 10 YEARS @ $30MIL A YEAR WHEN ALL HE DOES IS NOT HIT WHEN THE GAME’S ON THE LINE. Remember-ALL HE HAD TO DO WAS PUT THE BAT ON THE BALL IN THE 9TH VS REDSOX IN THE PLAYOFF & COULDN’T. Stanton issue is if a RH pitcher throws him inside/breaking ball he still flinches. Remembering what happen to him. And Syndergaard went 13 & 4 ON THE SAME TEAM THAT deGrom WENT 10 & 9. The Mets stop pushing their pitcher when they know their were out of it. @ 26 year old, NOBODY’S GETTING THOR UNLESS YOU BACK UP THE TRUCK. What makes you feel Frazier a career 238 hitter and Wade a 161 career hitter are top prospects. Please knowing the Met want/need a CF you doesn’t even include Hicks to start BUT STILL NOBODY IS GETTING THOR. .
Also Stanton is now a DH. Yankees traded for a OF and K King, Prettyboy Mikey was too hurt to play the OF WHEN THE YANKEES REALLY NEEDED AN OF. No the Yankees are stuck with him.
“metfan4ever” = Freddy Wilpon’s MLBTR account, apparently
Paxton is so much better than Gray.
This comment might just get a MLBTR record for downvotes.
There’s zero way to know who won the trade this early. In addition, the Paxton trade has NOTHING to do with what they do with Corbin.
Lefties crushing him this season scares me for games at home.
And he’s era at safeco was 2.98 comp to 3.87 on the road. And doubled his HR rate last year. Only time will tell joe he handles NY and pitching in big games.
Solid meh
Still early in the voting but very strong favor for the Yankees with B/A topping the charts compared to a more mediocre B/C currently on the Seattle side. Kind of leads credence to the “bit light” comments about the prospects headed back towards the Mariners. Of course no one will be able to 100% grade the deal for a few years.
B for the Mariners for now, but could turn into an A if Sheffield turns into a #1 starter. As for the Yankees, I would grade it also a B but with the risk of being a C in the long run
Voted B for both.. wasn’t a steal for the Yankees but they didn’t give away more than 1 legitimate prospect… the Mariners could have gotten more but the market for Paxton was limited and the fact that they got a high-ceiling type guy is impressive enough.
Market was limited?
Your weed must be better than mine.
Why in the world would you think his market was limited? His salary is nothing that would deter any of the 30 teams from being able to handle.
Smart move by Yankees. They are in for short term battling to get to the series. A prospect is just that, until they can prove themselves at the next level.
Profound
I saw it as a relative win-win. First of all, it’s an obvious boost to a 100 win Yankees team. Also, you have to take into consideration that they essentially opened up a 40-man spot as Swanson would have needed to be added, so that carries a bit of value too.
For Seattle, it’s a huge boost to a rather rough farm system. Lewis, White and Carlson are good prospects, but they aren’t carrying a franchise. They may have added 40% of their 2021 rotation in the deal. Yes, I am higher on Swanson than most, but the ability to control a few plus secondaries is exceptionally rare.
I saw the deal as
The Yankees acquire 2-years of a three (in their rotation) and the Mariners got six years each of a 2/3 and a 4/5 with a lottery ticket outfield prospect who looks like he could be a nice role player. The biggest concern here is SHeffield’s control
A for both teams, I do think however that Seattle got the best of the deal. Both of the pitchers seattle received are legitimate mid rotation Starting prospects if they are handled correctly. so ultimately seattle if they can develop pitchers properly should end up with a #2 and #4 or better
Swanson is being criminally underrated here as he is a strikeout per inning pitcher with a career record of 23 and 12 and about 1 hit per inning. it is very possible that in seattle he just might be better than the enigmatic sheffield. the yankees gave up what they had to to get an experienced lefty so they did alright too. but seattle wont this deal quite handly
Who knows how any of the 4 players will fare over the next couple years!? I’m intrigued by Swanson’s numbers and as a Mariners fan I hope he is being criminally underrated. Personally, it’s hard for me to get super excited about Swanson when he’s not even a top ten NYY pitching prospect. Human nature. Not counting Sheffield there are currently 10 pitching prospects rated higher than ES
the reason swanson wasnt rated higher is only because the Yankees regularly acquire international pool money and sign extra prospects
they typically sign 6 of the top 30 nearly every year. simply because they max out their pool money from teams who refuse to spend their own. blame those teams who are too cheap to spend the money they get allotted and refuse to use revenue sharing and keep it in their pockets
when teams are selling their international signing pool money for lesser prospects they are cheating their fans
Billneftleberg- I hope you’re right about ES. I saw that half of the 10 pitching prospects ranked higher than Swanson are Int. prospects so there’s 5 pitchers NY drafted ranked higher than Swanson. Of course- no one knows how Sheffield or Swanson will eventually fare- only time will tell. If you want to get excited about Paxton just watch his 5/2/18 16K game v Oak. Utter domination w an electric FB that day.
Mariners will be happy with the trade just may take a couple years, the potentially huge sleeper is the young OF that could be monster waiting to roll in time.
Exactly
Justus Sheffield is #3 starter at best so I mean cool I guess
You have a crystal ball? You know where he will slot? You’re probably the guy who refers to the teams moves as “We”
Yeah…a person uses “we” because typing “City Team Nickname” is a crime to your senses Mary.
Why is saying “we” offensive to you Mary?
At best???? Sheffield is a 22 year old lefty who throws upper 90s with a good slider. At worst he’s a solid to outstanding reliever. At best he’s a TOR arm if he can mix the change up and curveball better.
He throws in the upper 90s? Lol
Not according to the radar guns in scranton.
He throws anywhere from 92-95.
Barely average in today’s game.
Yes, at best. Sheffield is VERY most likely a back end guy, a #5 SP on a .500 team.
I think some Yankee fans are going to be surprised at just how good Paxton can be. His injuries last year were hit by come backer, the flu and sore back, nothing wrong with his arm.
This could be good for both Sheffield and Swanson. Both will probably end up in the Mariners rotation in 2019 especially if they trade Leake.
I gave both a B.
He’s had shoulder and elbow problems before though. No major surgeries which is a good thing but I would be worried about a big 30 year old lefty experiencing back soreness.
C for Yankees – they could have easily gotten a more reliable guy with a better away split than Paxton, but they didn’t give up too much, Sheffield is wildly overrated and never deserved to be called their #1, Florial always had the higher ceiling and that’s who the Mariners should have gotten. C because the Yankees aren’t really the type of org that goes with high-risk guys like Paxton.
F for Mariners – just a dumb trade, Paxton is the type you hold onto at least til the ’19 deadline, and you bet on him staying healthy for another year for a max return – this is the type of return you get for a half a season of a fully-healthy Paxton. The guys they got back are all flawed and classically-hyped Yankees prospects – none have particularly high ceilings. Dipoto is the worst GM in MLB who should never be let near any GM job ever again after this.
You shouldn’t joke like that, people might take you seriously.
I was busy calling out other dummies and couldn’t get here in time. Well done Marinersfan
Hey! This guy gets paid to be an A’s fan, he knows what he’s talking about…
@callingoutdummies247 – You know literally nothing about baseball though? You can’t be the judge of what is right and wrong when you are entirely clueless about baseball!
Yeah, sure, the Yankees got a guy with a lot of flaws and the Mariners got a lesser package than they would have if they waited 6 months.
*But*I’m*A*Joke*For*Saying*So*
You stated they should’ve bet on him staying healthy for another year. Except he’s had injury concerns since his debut. Not to mention, he hasn’t been any healthier than he was this past season.
But I’m a Joke for Saying So!!!!!……Couldn’t have said it better myself!
Thanks for the self incrimination!
You can’t even read, just give up you loser fraud. Youre coming up on a a full DECADE without a ring….tut tut, that’s not very “Yankee Way” now is it? Classless, loser, terribly-run organization that just throws big money at poorly-fitting free agents. Cashman is trash, man!
Hahahahaha what a joke you are, and you barely sound literate or know anything about baseball in these threads. Go finish high school and then you can step to me.
Yes you are a joke for saying the M’s must “bet on him staying healty for another year for a max return”. Well suppose he get hurt genius!
Sure they could take that chance if tjey chose to but you make it sound like they must roll the dice and you infer that Paxton will stay healthy for sure simply because the need a max return.
That does not make logical sense and people responded and as usual you cannot handle it and cry and whine and pout like the 12 year old you probably are.
Bravo Mr. JKB
Why would the M’s want Florial when they will get Pache for Diaz.
Pache & Bryce Wilson for Edwin Diaz will happen at the Winter Meetings
Classicly hyped yankees prospects? Swanson was 22nd, and William’s wasn’t even top 30 in their system.
How did they hype them? Lol
Jesus Montero will leave Mariner fans scarred for life.
Sheffield is a back end starter at best, but “OMG THE YANKEES #1 PROSPECT MUST BRING IN A HAUL”
A current #2 (possibly #1) for a #3 IF he actually lives up to his potential, and 2 nobodies. Yankees won.
Yankees got the highest ceiling player, but that risk isn’t a risk they needed to be taking. They needed to go after Kluber or Greinke, not such a high-risk guy like Paxton. Seattle lost, but Yankees might have gotten another Sonny Gray-type, in terms of risk.
You keep saying both teams got less than they should have. That just goes against the most basic forms of any type of logic.
no it doesnt, at all. stop talking.
So JTO if someone does not agree with you they are not allowed to talk?
Oh wise one enlighten us all with your wisdom and explain to us mere mortals why no one can question your rambling illogical opinions?
Kluber would have cost literally the farm. Why should Cleveland sell? They’re the best in their division. Greinke is the definition of a Gray type…a headcase who dominates outside of NY media pressure. By the way, Paxton is better than Greinke.
A #3?? What is it with fan boys knowing the future. Guys like Syndergard have been throw ins in deals and the NL Cy Young winner was a 9th pick who had TJ surgery. He worked on his delivery and refined his pitches and became the ace he is. But I’m sure you saw it coming
I think Sheffields probable floor is being #3. He definitely has the potential to be more than that. Dunno what that guy is on claiming he is a #3 at best. He could still bust though
If he could bust, then his floor is not a #3.
Guess you skipped over the word “probable” then. Anyone can bust. Its just that i think it is most likely that his floor is a #3. Not that he cant have a different floor.
Reading comprehension is somehow everyones weakness on this site.
A probable floor isn’t a thing. Don’t bust someone for not reading when you just made something up. A floor implies a bottom. Probably his worst form is a #3 doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. I know what you mean about obviously but don’t get mad at someone else when you just said that.
It appear reading comprehension on your own post may be an issue for you.
You cannot have it both ways. If you say he can bust then his floor is not a #3 starter. If you say his floor is a #3 starter then you are saying he will not bust.
You are trying to have it both ways. That does not fly here on MLBTR.
+jbigz
Why not? A floor implies a bottom. Yes. “Probable”, in this case, implies that it is most likely the case. Put the two together. How it doesnt make sense that being a #3 is what i think is most likely his floor is surprising me. No one can say for certain what his floor or ceiling is. If you were to account for all possible scenarios one could say for certain that his floor is the worst player of all time and his ceiling is the best player of all time. Which isnt much help.
When dealing with predictions like these we practically try to pinpoint which is most likely to happen. I believe that Sheffield’s floor is probably a #3. He has all the tools to become much better than a #3 and I think that he can at least realize enough of it to pitch like a #3. That doesnt mean he cannot disappoint me and show me that im wrong. I just think the latter is unlikely.
I didnt just “make something up”. The word “probable” and the idea of a “floor” when discussing a player have long been established.
+JKB
You are a fool. Do you know how much garbage people allow to “fly here”? Dont act like this site is the epitome of reasonable discussion. You cannot even comprehend putting two words together. Like, Curtis you have ignored the word “probable” to attack a strawman.
Im not trying to have it both ways. I made the claim that I think it is likely that he does not bust and that his floor is a #3. However, just because it would then be unlikely that he busts it is not impossible. Just for fun, lets pretend that there is a 65% he doesnt bust and he, at worst, is a #3 starter, and that there is a 35% chance he doesnt realize any of his potential and busts. That makes it probable that his floor is a #3. And thats the claim I made and the one you have misrepresented to be “hes gonna bust and not bust at the same time LOL!”.
To pretend to be 100% certain of the outcome of a prospects career is a mistake which I will not make. I am not 100% certain his floor is a #3 so I did not make the assertion that he cannot bust. Again, I only claimed that I think it is most likely that his floor is a #3. Any player can spiral down and perform poorly forever at any time. Unlikely, improbable, but possible. To ignore these possibilities would be such a foolish error.
Because if you allege to give an opinion then give one. You do not. You want it both ways. What is his floor in your opinion. Number 3 starter or bust? You want it both ways.
If you think his floor is #3 starter snd winds up a bust then you were wrong. It would not be a big deal but your opinion would be #3 starter as a floor.
To cop out and say well anyone wind up a star or bust out is a sad way for you to take no position but attempt to be able to take credit for whatever happens. Thats why.
Oh I must be a fool since I do not agree with you. Way to make it personal.
You admit you take both ends of the spectrum and admit, in your opinion, this site is not for “reasonable discussion” but I am the fool? Haha ok Mr. non reasonable discussion. You certainly proved one cannot have a reasonable discussion with you. And of course you say I or anyone mist be a fool to attempt to discuss your comments because we are supposed to let your “garbage fly here!”
Hilarious. Yes you admit your comments are garbage. This “fool” agrees with you on that one!
+JKB
I guess you missed what the opinion was then… again. Here, I will detail it for you again: My opinion is that it is more likely that his floor is as a #3 SP in comparison to other possibilities to what his floor can be. It is clear that you do not understand the simple concept of probabilities. The world isnt black and white. My point to Jbigz was that the only floor/ceiling you can claim with 100% certainty would be the best scenario as the ceiling and worst as the floor. Hence the star or bust ends of the spectrum
Prospects are a gamble, and in gambling you deal with probabilities. Let a game of Blackjack serve as a metaphor for whether J. Sheffield will bust or be, at worst, a #3. You are at a table and you are only considered with two outcomes, bust or staying under 21. If youre dealt a hand equals a total of 13, then you have a 61% of not going over 21 if you were to hit. So the most probable of the two scenarios is that you can hit and stay under 21. However, that does not negate the 31% chance that you could indeed bust. It is possible, but it is still the less likely of the two outcomes (bust or stay under 21).
Now that you understand the simple concept of probabilities, you have to understand that the outcome of a prospects career can result in a million different ways. He could have all the talent and skill in the world and have a 99% chance that he is nothing short of GOAT, but there is still a 1% that some freak injury happens to him or something, If you really think you can just deal with the outcome of a prospects career in absolutes you are a fool.
“If you think his floor is #3 starter snd winds up a bust then you were wrong. It would not be a big deal but your opinion would be #3 starter as a floor.”
READ CAREFULLY: My opinion is that it is MOST LIKELY that his floor is a #3. I am not making the assertion that he cannot have a better/worse floor, so i cannot be right/wrong if he is winds up a #3/bust. The only thing I can be right/wrong about is whether or not him being a #3 at worst is truly the most likely outcome, for that is the assertion I have made. If it turns out that in actuality the chances for him to have a lower floor than a #3 starter are higher than the chances that his floor is a #3 (%>50), then I would be wrong.
“To cop out and say well anyone wind up a star or bust out is a sad way for you to take no position but attempt to be able to take credit for whatever happens. Thats why.”
It is really not a cop out to understand the spectrum of possibilities. I do not take credit for anything other than understanding that there are a lot of things that can happen and that a prospects future in the MLB is nothing but uncertain. It is a cop out, however, to misrepresent every single point I made in order to have an easier time attacking my arguments.
“Oh I must be a fool since I do not agree with you. Way to make it personal.”
No, you are a fool because you do not understand simple concepts that are being spelled out for you. You are a fool for misrepresenting practically every point I have made in a feeble effort to be correct. You are a fool because like Curtis, your reading comprehension ability is failing you. You cant even address my points for what they are because you, for some reason, cannot understand my points for what they are, as simple as they may be. It isnt like you are simply disagreeing with what the probabilities are and have provided evidence/reasoning for why that is. It is, however, simply that you do not even understand the points I am making.
I also do not care how personal this gets. If you want to take some moral high ground in a pathetic attempt to look like you are the better person in a MLBTR comment section, then take it.
“You admit you take both ends of the spectrum”
I do not take any ends of the spectrum. I have only acknowledged what the ends of the spectrum are and understand the many possibilities that can be realized within said spectrum.
“but I am the fool?”
Yes.
“And of course you say I or anyone mist be a fool to attempt to discuss your comments because we are supposed to let your “garbage fly here!” ”
Whatever makes you feel better. Make sure to understand that I called you a fool for your lack of understanding and not because you decided to reply.
“Hilarious. Yes you admit your comments are garbage. This “fool” agrees with you on that one!”
Oooooo that one really stings! Got me there!!! :'(
Look, this is just another example of you seemingly purposefully misrepresenting my arguments. It was clear that I wasnt referring to my own comments yet you decided to pretend that I was. An absolutely embarrassing attempt at damage control. Take your feeble mind and petty squabble elsewhere.
Could you elaborate?
That’s not a fan base thing. It’s his scouts and front offices perceive him. That’s how it works.
Good move for Seattle overall. Thompson-Williams I believe has the most potential of the three prospects even though he is a bit older he turned it around this season with a show of power and an ability to reach base at a high percentage which isn’t easy to do in any pro league including A+ ball.
“an ability to reach base at a high percentage which isn’t easy to do in any pro league including A+ ball.”
This is emphatically wrong, plenty of players can get on base in A+ ball but not in AA or AAA or MLB.
Thompson-Williams had a horrendous BB/K rate last year as a 23 year old at A+ ball -that alone should scream a million warning signs at you.
justin dont you ever get tired of being wrong? everyone knows you hate the yankees and would sell your soul to make them worse but when even a met fan like me sees through your personal agenda. it gets to be ridiculous.
show some integrity ad comment on facts not your biases
I literally bought up stats and facts, it’s not a bias. Yes I hate the Yankees but you can’t argue numbers like that.
And no, I am never ever wrong. Ever. Except Gray-Mateo, its way, way, way, less a prospect to get Gray now everyone knows he’s got alcohol problems (according to my sources).
“your sources”…..you are truly a big joke!
It must be tough for you to see success in the Bronx year after year while your A’s waddle around the Al West trying to be relevant.
rocky… but, but money ball. Bwahahahaha!!!
“success in the Bronx year after year”
You overrated clowns have 1 title in 18 years, Boston has 4 in 14! Stinkees aren’t anything to brag about and are a massive waste of everyones time and media space. A’s are at least interesting, your entire team and image is borrrrrringggggg.
Also I’m not a huge A’s fan, I dislike the Yankees more than I like the A’s. Gray for Canha….it’s going down!!!
Moneyball doesn’t happen if the loser Yankees don’t go after Giambi! You only have yourselves to blame for it.
Money ball doesn’t win championships. Yankee ball does.
youre a dodger fan who hasnt won in his lifetime and has lost to the yankees more times than you can count, that pretty much makes you unable to use logic on this subject
personally I think the mariners won this deal, when you consider Paxton has averaged less than 7 wins a season and the Mariners have gotten 3 very good prospects including 2 starting pitchers. Id say they did fine
TWO
Wins are useless
Gray is gutless. Paxton will fare better.
Hitman
Gray is the biggest head case I have ever seen!
I feel this was an even swap, 1 known commodity in Paxton; a solid pitcher when healthy. Not an ace but legit enough.
3 unknown commodities in the 3 sent to Seattle. Sheffield looks more like a backend rotation piece rather than an ace, but the upside on the other two could be beneficial to Seattle more than Paxton would along the same time frame.
I don’t think Paxton will flop like Gray did, but I also don’t think he’ll be what the Yankees need to get to a World Series.
I feel like the Yankees couldve gotten this trade done without giving up Sheffield. It would mean more volume, of course, but they had the prospect capital to get it done while doing less harm to the teams near future success. So for example, replace Sheffield with Loaisiga and Adams + lotto. But Paxton is a good pitcher, so B for Yankees.
B for Seattle as well. I feel like Dipoto has a bunch of pieces from different puzzles so they dont fit but he’s decided to make it fit anyway with the help of flimsy scotch tape. However, I felt that Sheffield wasnt far away from the bigs and he could contribute in a big way.
It is obviously way to early for these grades to mean anything though.
I like Paxson and I hope he can stay healthy and if so he will be a stud for the yanks.
Happy on the Ms end for getting hopefully and number 3 and number 4 for years to come in their rotation. This to go with Marco who should be a solid number 2 and the Ms have him for five more years at least.
Now go Trade Díaz and get a legit future number 1 and the Ms could quickly build a solid low cost staff to jumpstart the rebuild.
I agree. Health is a huge concern and plays a big factor to who is gonna come out of the trade on top.
I’m not an M’s fan but it looks like the pieces are starting to fall into place for an on the fly rebuild.
Beg,
Seattle had been scouting and had their eyes on him for a bit and really wanted him. So
Beg,
Seattle had been scouting and had their eyes on him for a bit and really wanted him. So. CASH OF OF COURSE WORKED THAT IN TO GET PAXMAN, LOL
OH BROS, my special sources didn’t tell me this, I heard it on MLB hot stove, Michael Kay and Wfan, Big Mike
The first step-
Trade your best assets for mlb ready assets to help fill multiple positions. Edwin Diaz to the Cardinals with catcher Kelly as part of the package going back to the Mariners helps fill the void created by trading Zunino and helps bolster the cardinals pen.
The second step-
Trade majority of your financial obligations to clear money off the books. Attaching Hernandez and Leake to Jean Segura clears a lot of payroll for the Mariners over the next 5 years- 57 million in 2019, 30 mill in 2020, and 15 mill from 2021, 2022, 2023.
Possibly, Kelly (catcher), Martinez (DH), Ryan Helsley, and 1 of Weaver, Flaherty, or Reyes heading back to the Mariners for Edwin Diaz and Elias.
You are forgetting tha John Mozeliak is president of baseball operations for the Cardinals. Wish all you want to wish. Mozeliak won’t change his colors!!! The players who would help the Cardinals aren’t Low Hanging Fruit. That’s the only type of players Mozeliak can evaluate. And… he doesn’t do that well either.
Proud of the Yankees fo making a sensible upgrade for some up and coming prospects. Cardinals fans only wish they had a man like Cashman running the organization. What they have is a do nothing, keep all prospects, and hire Low Hanging Fruit type of guy in John Mozeliak. He is slowly but surely destroying the Cardinals by not obtaining any impact all star caliber payers unless they are way past their prime. Since the Houston Scandal, he hasn’t been able to to anything right.
All I know is that I hope this trade works out for the Yanks about as well as the Michael Piñeda trade.
Pineda showed some flashes of brilliance for the Yankees.
I could live with that.
I gave the Yankees a B, solely on the basis that they gave up a top level prospect for a pitcher who has yet to pitch more than 167 innings in a season.
Now, his innings pitched have consistently risen each year to that 167. If he can sustain and even build a bit more on that to be a 28-30 start, 170-180 inning a year guy each season he’s with the Bombers, then the grade goes up to A for me.
For the M’s, I think they pulled off an A haul, but if Justus does not stick in an MLB rotation, this is a C deal for them. I have them a B based on one of him or Swanson reaching their potential.
Paxton is SO overrated! Great swap for the Mariners! 30 years old without a signature season, or an injury free season at the least. The Mariners won’t miss him much.
Just OK for the Mariners, very good for Yankees. None of those prospects are going to have the WAR of Paxton.
I come here to listen to yankee fans cry
You came to the right place. Biggest babies and losers on these threads, their team doesnt win titles anymore and their hated Red Sox keep on piling up the rings! It’s truly hilarious watching Yankee fans on here lose their collective minds every time Boston gets another chip lololol
only baby loser here is you dodger fan? how many world series have you lost to your hated yankees 3-8? you just cant stand it can you? 6-12 in the world series overall, your team is a laughingstock and always has been
those are the numbers that count JTO. the dodgersmore often thaan not lose when it matters most
He’s an athletics fan despite his user name.
Bill,
I have learned in life that people who detest. hate, and loathe something are just plain old jealous. very simple!!
The Red Sox are doing it the right way. They are going for the gusto during the prime years of their best young players. The Yankees need to get serious about capitalizing on their window and realize the new baseball paradigm, go all in or go home. Offer the farm for Kluber, take on Greinke’s entire contract, and bring back Robertson and Miller. Win now or forever regret the prime years of this crew.
Every year Paxton is supposed to be great and NEVER is. Most innings he has pitched is 160 and hes 30. Sheesh
Good trade for both sides.
Yanks get a affordable SP option
While
The M’s get 3 upside prospects to “retool” their roster.
What about a 3 team trade between the Yankees, Braves and the Mariners.
Yankees get Segura, Teheran, and Allard.
Braves get Diaz, Haniger, Gian Carlo Stanton and Sonny Gray.
Mariners get Ender Inciarte , Dansby Swanson, Bryce Wilson, Drew Waters, and AJ Minter.
As the Yankees go. Giancarlo Stanton has a full no trade. Last year he said he would only accept a trade to LA or NY. Pretty sure that hasn’t changed. They also have their sights set higher than Teheran. There’s only one open spot on the rotation and that’s reserved for the best pitcher they can get. I don’t see the need for anyone else because Montgomery will be back fairly soon.
Joe, I heard the Sumner
Cashman got fleeced. These are the type of idiot deals that happen when you’re desperate and you biggest rival just won ANOTHER World Series.
Instead of trolling why not explain your perspective on how it was a bad deal for Cashman to make and how the Yankees “got fleeced” by picking up one of the better SP’s in the game.
It’s pretty simple. Even if Paxton gives you 164 innings again this year that’s more than you can count on out of Justus Sheffield. Paxton has his risks for sure but you know for a fact Sheffield won’t be tossing 164 innings next year. He topped out at 120 this season. There’s no way the Yankees could count on him for a full season in their rotation and certainly not in October. Paxton could. He’s a finished product, Sheffield is still a work in progress. Yankees want to and can win now. Paxton helps that. This was a fair deal for sure. It could end up swinging either way honestly. Seattle has the potential to win this deal big if they manage to find 3 quality major leaguers but that’s how these deals go and there’s certainly no guarantee of that.
Trading your #1 pitching prospect (plus 2 others) for a 30+yr old pitcher with a questionable injury history and only 2yrs of control shouldn’t really need to be explained to you.
Regardless of what Sheffield would or wouldn’t have give NYY next season he was a valuable commodity and his value wasn’t maximized in anyway shape or form. These type of stupid deals are why historically NYY’s farm systems are pretty weak.
Trading your #1 pitching prospect means nothing. He’s no sure thing. They got Paxton for him. He also has his question marks but he’s proven at the big league level. He may flop and this deal could blow up in their face. Or it could go the other way. That’s how you know it was a fair deal. This was just that.
I don’t get the lavish praise being thrown on Paxton. He’s been pitching in Safeco his whole career, which is among the top 2-3 pitcher parks in the league. His career ERA outside of Safeco is almost a full run higher and last year it was a very pedestrian 4.24. He’s 30 years old and hasn’t logged 200 innings in a year in his life. This is not what you would describe as an ace. If the Yanks go out and acquire a real ace, this trade may look better. A rotation of something like Kluber, Severino, Tanaka, Paxton, Sabathia/Montgomery is to be feared. Take Kluber out of that equation and it’s merely a good rotation.
Dealing for Paxton was a way to ensure the Yankees can still make a play for Corbin or Evoaldi while still having enough to go after a Harper or Machado while staying under the luxury tax and only getting rid of Sheffield. Getting Kluber would have meant dealing Sheffield plus more young talent. Keeping the rest of the prospects allow the Yankees to go after a need at the trade deadline.
After 2017, the Yankees felt they were a Stanton away from getting to the World Series. They weren’t exactly wrong; they just needed a better Sonny Gray. They think they can get that from Paxton.
Aside from the blowout loss to Boston in the ALDS, the Yankees were not far off from beating Boston in that series. They were 1 defensive OF play from stealing a game, and forcing a Game 5 could have been in the Yankees favor. Yankees are poised to win right now. Plus, a healthy Didi may have been the difference in that series, possibly? We’ll never know.
As for Cashman getting fleeced….I recall people saying the same thing when he traded Jesus Montero to Seattle. Sheffield wasn’t going to be figuring in the 2019 plans, so dealing him was the right move. Even if Paxton performs like a #3 it’s worth it so long as Tanaka and Severino do their part. Yankees are one of the favorites to win in 2019.
This is one where all the negatives are injury, ballpark and pressure related which is very hard to project. Right now I gave the Yankees a C and the Mariners an A. I love the return for Seattle as they basically exchanged for a younger flamethrower if he can harness his stuff along with a couple decent throw ins. They aren’t going to compete in 2019 and I think they just about maxed out what teams would be willing to pay for Paxton given the alternatives on the FA market that just cost money.
For the Yankees, this adds another question mark to a series of question marks, hence the C grade. I like that they got an option that when healthy should represent a solid #2 starter. However, you have injury and consistency concerns with Tanaka, the ageless but eventually aging Sabathia, an ace who has shown that late season fatigue appears to be an issue and of course Sonny Gray… For a team looking deep into October, that’s a lot of question marks 1-3 with no real backup options.
However, if the Yankees go out there and sign Corbin, I’d change this to a strong B grade for the Yanks. Sheffield would be blocked hard and become more expendable and Paxton would become the Porcello of the Yankees rotation, leaving more room for injuries and adjustments. This is a move that must be combined with another starting pitching move to make sense to me.
Pretty good trade for both teams. Yankees just have to be prepared for Paxton hitting the DL once or twice every year.
Mariners get two pitchers who should start games for them, earliest in June and latest in September. The OF is intriguing,he also could be on their roster in 2020 or 2021.