Earlier this week, the Mariners and Rays made the offseason’s first major trade, a five-player swap in which catcher Mike Zunino and outfielder Mallex Smith changed teams. That may prove to be the first of multiple noteworthy deals Mariners trade-happy GM Jerry Dipoto orchestrates this winter, especially considering his intention to “re-imagine” his team’s roster. The majority of that roster is available for trade, Jon Heyman of Fancred reported prior to the Zunino deal, though he added that outfielder Mitch Haniger, closer Edwin Diaz and left-handed Marco Gonzales appear safe.
The most interesting name missing from Heyman’s list is Gonzalez’s fellow southpaw starter James Paxton, who’s Seattle’s closest thing to an ace. With the 30-year-old Paxton down to his final two seasons of team control, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times has heard that the Mariners will trade him this winter.
While Paxton does have a checkered injury history and has only exceeded 160 innings in a year once (last season, when he tallied 160 1/3), the fireballer is still one of the majors’ premier lefties. Paxton has averaged just 24 starts and 139 innings a season since 2016, his breakout campaign, but the Big Maple nonetheless racked up 11.9 fWAR during that three-year span. In that regard, only 12 starters bettered Paxton, who’s sandwiched between Noah Syndergaard and Luis Severino. And since 2017, Paxton ranks fourth among starters in K/9 (11.06), fifth in FIP (2.95), 11th in K/BB ratio (4.61) and tied for 21st in ERA (3.40).
Paxton’s projected to earn $9MM in 2019, a far lighter commitment than the best free-agent starters will rake in this winter, which only adds to his appeal. Acquiring Paxton would still sting a team to a degree, of course, as that club would presumably need to part with a big-time haul to land him. In shipping Paxton out, perhaps Seattle would significantly boost a farm system which has long languished at the bottom of the majors.
Here’s a look at potential suitors for Paxton, going from best to worst record in 2018:
Boston Red Sox
With Chris Sale, David Price, Rick Porcello and Eduardo Rodriguez, the reigning world champion Red Sox already have 80 percent of a formidable rotation locked in for 2019. But they could lose Nathan Eovaldi to free agency this year and both Sale and Porcello to the open market next offseason. Because Paxton’s under control for 2020, he’d at least help cover for their potential exits. The problem is that, in Baseball America’s estimation, Boston has the game’s second-worst farm system (only Seattle’s is worse). Thus, even though they did nothing but win in 2018, it would be exceedingly difficult for the Red Sox to emerge victorious in a Paxton bidding war.
Houston Astros
The Astros may see Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton leave as free agents, and they’ve already lost Lance McCullers Jr. for 2019 on account of Tommy John surgery. The need for rotation help is obvious, then, and it’s magnified when considering the Astros don’t control their top remaining starters – Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole – beyond 2019. Houston possesses BA’s eighth-ranked system, moreover, and a pair of elite prospects – righty Forrest Whitley (No. 7) and outfielder Kyle Tucker (No. 8) – are atop the group. Whitley or Tucker would be an excellent get for the Mariners, though it would be unrealistic to expect the Astros to part with either for Paxton. They’d probably need a front-line starter with more team control and durability than he provides (Corey Kluber, for example).
New York Yankees
The Yankees are prioritizing rotation help this winter, and they’ve already talked with the Mariners about Paxton. Trades and prospect graduations have taken a bite out of New York’s farm system, which was elite not long ago but is now BA’s 17th-ranked group. Still, the Yankees do have three of the outlet’s top-100 prospects – lefty Justus Sheffield (No. 23), outfielder Estevan Florial (No. 54) and righty Jonathan Loaisiga (No. 63) – headlining their class. At the big league level, young outfielder Clint Frazier and third baseman Miguel Andujar could be of interest to the Mariners. Andujar’s coming off a potential AL Rookie of the Year season, though, so don’t expect the Yankees to part with his four years of control for Paxton’s two.
Oakland Athletics
The Athletics rode a patchwork rotation to a 97-win season and a wild-card berth in 2018, and three of that team’s veteran starters – Trevor Cahill, Edwin Jackson and Brett Anderson – are now free agents. Further, the A’s will have to survive next season without their No. 1 starter from 2018, lefty Sean Manaea, who underwent shoulder surgery in September. They also may open 2019 without rotation candidates A.J. Puk and Jharel Cotton, who each sat out last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. All of that considered, a Paxton acquisiton would make a lot of sense for Oakland, which would be able to slot his reasonable salary into its limited budget. And the Athletics’ farm, which checks in at a middle-of-the-pack 15th, does feature three of BA’s top 100 in lefty Jesus Luzardo (No. 13), Puk (No. 42) and catcher Sean Murphy (No. 57). The A’s are holding out hope Luzardo will crack their season-opening rotation in 2019, however, so it seems he’d be especially tough to pry loose. In the majors, hard-throwing righty Frankie Montas (26 in March) and infielder Franklin Barreto (23 in February) could be of interest to the Mariners. Although, Montas is penciled into the A’s thin rotation right now, and Barreto will succeed Jed Lowrie at second base if he walks in free agency.
Milwaukee Brewers
Like the A’s, the Brewers went a long way last season with a rotation that didn’t look great on paper. Journeyman Wade Miley was one of the unit’s key contributors, but he’s now a free agent. Holdovers Jhoulys Chacin and Chase Anderson were the Brewers’ only other regular starters who managed sub-4.00 ERAs, though their peripherals weren’t as encouraging. And Brent Suter, who threw the fourth-most innings among the team’s starters in 2018, will sit out most or all of next season after undergoing TJ surgery in the summer. Along with Chacin and Anderson, the Brewers have a cavalcade of other options for their 2019 rotation (Jimmy Nelson, Freddy Peralta, Junior Guerra, Zach Davies, Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes), but it would be quite optimistic to expect Paxton-type production out of any of them. Perhaps the Brewers will be in on Paxton, then, but adding him may cost them some of their pitching depth. Any of Peralta, Woodruff or Burnes could draw Seattle’s interest. Per BA, Burnes (No. 56) is one of the Brewers’ two top-100 prospects, along with second baseman Keston Hiura (No. 33).
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers appear to have plenty of capable starters heading into 2019, though lefties Rich Hill and Alex Wood are due to hit free agency a year from now. Plus, LA’s known for having enviable depth just about everywhere, which is another reason not to rule out a Paxton chase. With BA’s ninth-ranked system and some potential trade chips at the major league level, it certainly seems that the Dodgers have the ammunition to go after Paxton if they want. They boast four top-100 prospects – outfielder Alex Verdugo (No. 26), catchers Keibert Ruiz (No. 27) and Will Smith (No. 80), and shortstop Gavin Lux (No. 82) – not to mention promising young arms such as Julio Urias, Caleb Ferguson, Dennis Santana and Dustin May.
Colorado Rockies
Led by Kyle Freeland and German Marquez, the Rockies’ rotation was more than fine in 2018, and they’re slated to return all of their top starters next season. No one would blame Colorado for sticking with that quintet. But Paxton would seemingly upgrade the Rockies’ rotation, and they likely have a good enough farm system (No. 11) to be serious bidders. They could also offer Jon Gray, Tyler Anderson or Antonio Senzatela, starters who each come with at least three years of team control, or land Paxton using other players and try to flip one of Gray, Anderson or Senzatela for much-needed offensive help.
Atlanta Braves
The Braves want a top-of-the-rotation starter, but it doesn’t appear they have the spending capacity to add one via free agency. Enter Paxton? If they’re motivated, the Braves – who own BA’s fifth-rated system and seven of its top-100 prospects – have the goods to get a deal done. Atlanta’s chock-full of young arms, including Sean Newcomb, Mike Soroka, Touki Toussaint, Ian Anderson, Kyle Wright and former Mariners farmhand Luiz Gohara, and counts third baseman Austin Riley and outfielders Cristian Pache and Drew Waters among its quality position player prospects. That nine-player list certainly presents some intriguing possibilities for the Mariners, though the Braves may not be too eager to part with anyone from it.
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays are coming off a 90-win season, could use another starter(s), have some money to spend and own BA’s second-ranked farm system. Further, the only Ray to exceed 100 innings last season was AL Cy Young candidate Blake Snell. All of that suggests Tampa Bay’s a great fit for Paxton. On the other hand, it’s not easy to envision the Rays trading a bounty of young talent for a 30-year-old who may only be in their uniform for two seasons.
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals aren’t wanting for major league-caliber starters, but that’s not to say Paxton wouldn’t improve their 2019-20 outlook. He’d join Carlos Martinez, Miles Mikolas and Jack Flaherty to give the Cardinals at least four potential front-end starters next year. After that, Mikolas, Michael Wacha and Adam Wainwright could each leave as free agents (or retire in Wainwright’s case). St. Louis has the 13th overall system at BA, which regards pitchers Alex Reyes (No. 28) and Dakota Hudson (No. 97), outfielder Tyler O’Neill (No. 49) and catcher Carson Kelly (No. 78) as top-100 prospects. The Cardinals also have rotation candidates/possible trade chips in Luke Weaver, John Gant, Austin Gomber and Daniel Poncedeleon, who are all 26 or younger and have fared reasonably well in the majors.
Washington Nationals
With Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg, the Nationals’ rotation features a marvelous one-two punch. After that duo, the Nats’ starting group is far less imposing, and they’ve lost a couple of their most productive starters from last year in Gio Gonzalez (traded over the summer) and Jeremy Hellickson (free agent). There’s definitely room for Paxton as a result, and with BA’s 12th-ranked system, Washington could be in on this sweepstakes.
Los Angeles Angels
Injuries laid waste to the Angels’ staff last year, and the unit suffered its most devastating blow when Shohei Ohtani underwent Tommy John surgery after the season. The two-way star won’t pitch in 2019, creating further room for the acquisition of Paxton or another high-level starter this offseason. If the Angels take a shot at Paxton, it should help their cause that their system is no longer barren – BA moved it from 30th in 2017 to 10th in ’18. And in the event the Mariners would want a somewhat proven starter in a package for Paxton, the Angels have 22-year-old righty Jaime Barria, who held his own as a rookie last season.
Philadelphia Phillies
While the Phillies saw their top five starters amass at least 24 outings apiece in 2018, only one of them, Aaron Nola, actually offered front-line production. Paxton’s not better than Nola, but he’s certainly superior to Jake Arrieta, Nick Pivetta, Vince Velazquez, Zach Eflin and 2018 injury case Jerad Eickhoff. Aside from Nola (untouchable) and Arrieta (he wouldn’t be of interest to the Mariners), perhaps any of those other starters could involved in a Paxton deal. After all, they’re somewhat established in the majors and come with a few years of control each. Switching to the position player side, the Phillies have Scott Kingery, who could be part of a Paxton trade. On the farm, they have three of BA’s top-100 prospects – righties Sixto Sanchez (No. 16) and Adonis Medina (No. 100), third baseman Alec Bohm (No. 40) – though their system ranks a below-average 18th.
Minnesota Twins
In previewing the Twins’ offseason, Steve Adams pointed out that they have a host of young, back-end arms whom they could potentially package for a starter with greater upside. That’s an interesting idea for Minnesota, which is coming off a disappointing year but could be aggressive this offseason as it attempts to compete in a weak division. Paxton would qualify as a bold pickup, and given the Twins’ loaded farm (BA’s seventh-place system), they could get the Mariners’ attention.
Cincinnati Reds
Paxton to Cincinnati is an extreme long shot, but the Reds do seem motivated to reel in a top-tier arm, evidenced by their interest in big-ticket free agents. Outbidding the rest of the league for a Patrick Corbin or a Dallas Keuchel just doesn’t seem likely, though, so going the trade route may be the Reds’ lone hope of landing a starter of that caliber this offseason. With that said, odds are that the Reds won’t contend during Paxton’s remaining years of control, meaning they’d be better off staying out of this race.
Chicago White Sox
The White Sox have been among the majors’ worst teams every year since 2013, but they’re nearing a point at which they’ll attempt to make a major push toward contention. That could be as early as this offseason, judging by their reported interest in Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Nelson Cruz and Corbin. Of course, just because Chicago’s in on those free-agent stars doesn’t mean it’ll be willing to subtract from its loaded farm to acquire Paxton or any other trade candidate. However, doing so would increase the White Sox’s near-term chances of competing in the underwhelming AL Central.
*The initial version of this post omitted the Nationals, which has been rectified.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Montas, Neuse and Mateo for Paxton lets get this done
As an A’s fan I’d do that trade in a heart beat. I doubt the Mariners would.
I’d certainly do that trade without blinking on the A’s side and am curious of what Dipoto would think of it. I’d think Mariners would want more, but at same time he’s been injury prone so I’m curious how much more Mariners can ask for.
It’s probably where the talks start, tbh. Sure Trader Jerry would counter but value-wise it’s exactly where Paxton is right now, considering Clev just put almost their entire rotation on the trade market, so its not like Paxton is the only guy out there. I think value-wise, it’s right where an injury-prone guy like Paxton is at. Teams simply arent going to give prime value top 10 prospects for Paxton, a guy who might throw only 40 innings next season, we don’t know, he’s like a higher ceiling Brett Anderson at this point. So much risk, so the trade return will never be a premium.
Cmon buddy. You can’t expect people to take you seriously when you throw dog sht out like this. What is paxton’s Value? I’ve seen people on here who believe it’s higher than what I truly believe it is but come on. You aren’t getting a TOR starter for junk. Jorge Mateo cratered last year and that’s your centerpiece? He’s one of the complementary pieces for Paxton at this point. You got a package of Fowler, Mateo(while his value was high) and KAP for gray. Why would you expect Paxton to cost any less? Your package is in no way equivalent to that package and that has to be the minimum to deal pax to an in division rival.
Meh.
What’s Paxton’s value then? He’s extremely injury prone. That’s a decent package with a high ceiling for a guy who might miss long stints in any given season.
I agree on the injury prone,but at the end of last year he missed time for being sick I think? And the also catching a liner off his arm from Lowrie.
That package is less attractive than what the Yankees gave up for Gray and I’d say Paxton’s ceiling is way higher than Gray.
I think for 2 years of Paxton they’d want a package of Barreto, Montas and maybe a Skye Bolt or Richie Martin
Keep in mind Neuse and Mateo both had super down years.
So, I think people usually overshoot in terms of prospect returns in these trade hypotheticals, but I think this is way under… Start by asking yourself why the M’s would trade Paxton…. If the answer is “To get what they can while they still can,” I think you’re totally wrong.
I think Paxton carries value around Andujar and a couple lesser guys that aren’t big-value. I really think if that was the first offer the M’s would hang up and not answer the A’s call again. I think, barring an elite player involved in the return, none of the guys you mentioned is even good enough to be a second piece in the trade. In this trade market Paxton goes for top dollar, or, and they probably should anyway, the M’s wait for the deadline when there’s no free agent supply available. No disrespect, I just think that offer is way, way, way low in this market.
The man has never pitched more than 160 innings. Too much risk for Boston to trade their likely best prospects for. The Yankees on the other hand, it seems to make sense to package one upper prospect with a guy like Frazier who also has significant risk (but a great upside too).
When you’re on the strong end of the win curve, chasing upside is what teams ought to be doing. It’s clear Paxton is an impact talent that can carve through any lineup in baseball.
You’re wrong…he has pitched more than 160 innings.
“I really think if that was the first offer the M’s would hang up and not answer the A’s call again”
You dont even know who your GM is then – hint hint he’d NEVER do that. He’d counter and then so on. My proposal is actually how things work IRL, not in video games or whatever you think extremely flawed players like Paxton are worth. Keep in mind, Neuse finished the year strong after starting slow and Mateo also needs more seasoning, but showed enough too – both are decent trade pieces as bounceback guys.
Paxton would be marketed as an elite arm though. Injury proneness doesn’t calculate in trades as much as youre portraying it. When’s the last time a TOR pitcher was traded for less than what everyone thought? Maybe Cole?
Nah. I do t think a pitcher who has never gone above 162 innings with 2 years of control is worth a possible rookie of the year with 4. It’s definitely not a 1:1 swap. Maybe Paxton and another for andujar and a low level prospect, but I imagine the Yankees would only do this if they knew Machado would sign and flip to 3rd when didi returns
Not in any regular season. This past year he pitched his high, exactly 160.
Still incorrect…he pitched 160.1.
You can’t trade junk for gems. There’s just no reasoning with you on this. That’s just a slap in the face offer. That package you proposed might get you Dylan Bundy. Not James Paxton. Not even the ballpark. If you can propose it without even thinking twice that’s a problem. That’s the lowest of a low ball offer.
That’s not even close in my opinion.
Not only would that be underwhelming for Seattle, it put a dent in Oakland’s future for a short-term gain.
Oakland is in a bit of a jam right now. They have something like 56 million in arbitration-projected players, 19 million committed, another 6 or so in pre-arb players, and STILL have a need several starters, several relievers, and at catcher.
Those teams really don’t match up well.
Completely agree. Oakland and the Mariners don’t match up and if they did it would be for way more than Oakland should be giving up.
You’re just trolling right? Or do you actually think that gets it done ?
Nope, that’s fair value for a flawed, high risk player like Paxton. You do realize Cleveland put 3 of their WAY less-flawed/risk players on the trade market too? Paxton’s not even the only guy on the trade market this offseason. Face it: he’s just not as valuable as you, a Seattle fan, thinks. Montas goes into the rotation, and Neuse and Mateo hit MLB by mid 2019. For 2 years of a guy who probably won’t stay healthy, that’s a fine get by Seattle.
We may as well just keep him for that return then. We don’t want pieces that other teams are comfortable to lose.
Don’t usually like to get involved with hypothetical trades, but Jonathan Loaisiga (No. 63) – headlining Paxton trade, could definitely live with that.
Not sure he would be good enough to headline it. If so it would take two other fairly strong players to make it.
Paxton + Colome for Sheffield + Frazier + Loaisiga or German
I would imagine that would be a non-starter. Sheffield in a Paxton trade is highly unlikely.
Lol
I doubt Loaisiga would headline it… it’s obviously going to be Sheffield or florial headlining that type of deal… unless it’s a Frazier, loasiga, someone else type deal
Andujar / Frazier vs Paxton / Segar… what side do you take?
The Yanks shouldn’t do that. Seager has no real value right now, so giving up Andujar and Frazier for essentially Paxton alone is too much.
needs Florial because Frazier is too concussion-prone
Lol
Nah, might as well replace Frazier/Florial with Torres. That’s much more fair.
Torres is going nowhere
Justin turner please tell me how you can with a straight face tell me the Yankees need to offer more than an andujar and Frazier package and then come back with your own package headlined by Jorge Mateo and Frankie Montas? That is the definition of being a blind homer.
Uhm Andujar Frazier and it’s not close.
I usually hate the “don’t trade within division” narrative, but I think in this case, considering the M’s are also going to be competitive in 2020, they shouldn’t trade in division. I prefer he gets sent to the Dodgers, or Yankees
Paxton is a FA in 2021….whats one year?
when you haven’t made the playoffs since 2001, one year is pretty big
He’s pretty injury prone, I wouldn’t trip on trading him to the A’s, Angels or Astros because he might work against you for 1 season. You should be thinking in terms of 3 year contention windows anyway.
You keep saying he’s injury prone, but several of the injuries were freak accidents. Catching his nail oddly and ripping it, taking a line drive to the forearm, arm strain in agility drills, back tightness, etc.
He hasn’t been a model of health, but he hasn’t had the shoulder and elbow issues that would be alarming and he’s coming off a 160 inning season. He’s not likely going to give a team 200 innings, but even in 150, he’s extremely valuable.
I keep saying he’s injury prone….because he is injury prone.
I know! Stats and facts matter. As of now, he’s still injury prone, I’ll stop saying it when he throws 180+ innings 3 years in a row, deal?
What you fail to understand is that, first, the type of injuries and the way they occur matters. Second, you can have a pitcher through 120 innings without an injury. Getting 180+ isn’t the bar for anything other than an innings eater. But go ahead and argue that Mike Leake is more valuable than James Paxton because he’s thrown more innings.
Yes, stats matter. Now try understanding them.
Boom.
Yes, some injuries are more predictable of future injuries, and some are less so.
Someone getting a crowbar to the knee is not the same as someone rolling their ankles seven times.
Unless there are 2 quality players that have had a cup of coffee and shown they can hold their own at ML level; keep Paxton. What good would a few prospect do for Sea in 2019 if their in the minors. The idea would to flip Pax for 2 young players that are ready to plug in on the major league roster.
That’s not really how trades work. If they are going for 2019 then don’t trade him. He will likely be more valuable for them next year than any package another team would be willing to offer.
No way the A’s would give up Barreto and Neuse or Mateo for Paxton… It just does not make sense… Plenty of other options out there for Oakland…
Neuss and Mateo aren’t even top 100 prospects. I wouldn’t get to aggressive to get Paxton either but come on.
It doesn’t matter that they aren’t top 100 prospects, it’s that Oakland can’t afford to cough up several prospects for a short-term gain (and Seattle would certainly want a better package than that).
Keep in mind, Oakland has a ton of players who are arbitration-eligible. They’ll need their farm to start replacing some of these players as they get more and more expensive. They still have a limited budget and a lot of other holes to address.
The only guy who’s arby-level and expensive is their DH, Davis. Everything else you mention is like 3 years away. So no, they don’t need to keep Mateo, Neuse or even Barreto, but they do need to keep Lazarito, Beck and the low level guys. I’d think Beane would make his high minors position players super-available, being that CF, RF, 3B, SS and 1B are locked down for the foreseeable future for cheap. and if Murphy is a thing, they won’t need a C either.
Piscotty is on an extremely affordable deal, so I’m curious as to who you even mean by this? Davis is the only one.
Seriously, have you bothered to look at anything? Here’s a cut & paste of the projections from this site:
Khris Davis (5.104) – $18.1MM
Mike Fiers (5.085) – $9.7MM
Marcus Semien (4.118) – $6.6MM
Blake Treinen (4.065) – $5.8MM
Sean Manaea (2.157) – $3.8MM
Kendall Graveman (3.078) – $2.5MM
Cory Gearrin (5.136) – $2.4MM
Liam Hendriks (4.164) – $2.1MM
Mark Canha (3.092) – $2.1MM
Ryan Buchter (3.010) – $1.3MM
Josh Phegley (4.087) – $1.2MM
Ryan Dull (2.143) – $900K
Did you think I was just making things up? This doesn’t account for the 19 million in committed salary, which includes Piscotty, or the pre-arb salaries and it doesn’t cover the many holes due to free agency.
Only Davis, Fiers, and Gearrin come off the books next season (if they’re not extended), so the rest that are still hear will see raises and some pre-arb players will enter their first year.
Yes, they will need to be careful. That means leaning on pre-arb players moving forward and finding bargains via free agency.
For someone that gets paid to be an A’s fan you don’t seem to know the facts.
Half that list gets non tendered. But the 5 at the top certainly stay. The A’s are going to spend more this year. I don’t think they can’t afford to add a guy like Paxton who is only going to be owed around 25MM for the next two seasons. They can’t spend any more than that on a starter but they could fit that in.
I don’t even think all 3 gets that deal done
Just a heads up, I believe Andujar has five years of team control left.
Clint Frazier and Chance Adams is the package I’d love!
No chance…..
“No chance”. Greatest line ever for a guy name Chance.
They would have to offer another good prospect for that to happen. Adams has little trade value at this point which is why I’m sure you’re okay with that proposal.
I wouldn’t give up Frazier or Adams for paxton, he is too injury prone and couldn’t Handle the pressure of a pennant race in the east. He’s another Sonny Gray. If rather go with Corbin and Adams until Sheffield is ready….let someone else be burned by Paxton
Not sure Frazier would be a head-liner in a trade like this, because of the risk. Likely a second piece here. Chance Adams is probably viewed as a swing man at best at this point.
Frazier and a solid prospect is fair for Paxton IMHO given Paxton’s injuries.
Frazier hasn’t proven anything anywhere to headline any package.
Frazier is still an elite talent but as risky if not more so than Paxton. Thus. my mentioning the other prospect has to be “solid”. I chose that word because truth be told, even can’t miss prospects have missed. The top 100? 75% of those names can be replaced with others not on the list. That’s why the teams that reduce spending on scouting and mainly rely sabermetrics will soon find themselves looking up as everyone else goes past them.
Yankees should include any combination of prospects that doesn’t include Sheffield or Florial to get Paxton. It may be difficult not including Florial if another team like the astros comes in though. NY’s best offer without those 2 would be a Frazier/abreu package.
I wonder if a Corey Ray, Broxton would be enough for Paxton?
I’m sure the Brewers would be able to add Bubba Derby, Supak or Brown in there
Thats not going to be even close, for 1 Ray and Broxton are too similar of players to be packaged together, 2 thats not enough. It would probably have to include Hiura to get Paxton and I wouldn’t do that as a Brewers fan.
Braxton is a 5th OF
Ray would be an add in piece if it also included Hiura and one of those pitchers.
well if that’s the case I wouldn’t even bother
Paxton to Braves for Soroka, Freeman & Pache
Which Freeman?
I’m hoping sam freeman..
Morgan Freeman
*click*
I agree with you on Grienke provided Arizona includes money and wants only a marginal prospect. Your proposal to Seattle is way way overpay
As a Braves fan, yuck. I can’t see the Braves trading their top pitching prospect and top position prospect for a 30 yr old pitcher who’s never thrown more than 160 innings in a season.
As a Mariners and Braves fan, I could easily see a trade happening. Not just with Paxton, but with Colome and Gammel as well. Atlanta would have a front-line starter, a shut-down right-handed setup man who can close and a pre-arb replacement for Markakis.
Of course Atlanta isn’t trading Freeman. Seattle wouldn’t need him or Pache. I think a deal with Wright, Anderson, and a couple of lower pieces, like Jenista and Weigel could make sense.
As a mariners fan I’d happily accept that offer. As a braves fan I’d be questioning my teams motivations. Soroka has TOR upside and fits the braves for a longer window.
I just don’t see the White Sox ready to expend any elite prospect capital for two years of an injury prone James Paxton. Paxton is ace material when healthy but not worth any of the White Sox top 6 prospects who figure to be substantial components of their MLB core within the next 2-3 years. Now if the Mariners want to talk about Jose Abreu for the 2019 season along with a package of prospects not named Eloy Jimenez, Michael Kopech, Dylan Cease, Luis Robert, Nick Madrigal and Dane Dunning then Rick Hahn might be willing to talk.
I feel the same way about the White Sox potential interest in All-Star catcher J.T. Realmuto who also has two years of arbitration eligible control remaining with the Marlins and is a sure bet to be traded this offseason. Unlike the Mariners, the Marlins will be looking exclusively at a package of top young prospects for their great young catcher. Those top-6 prospects ought to be off limits but Miami could have their pick of 3 or 4 in the next tier which still could make an intriguing package considering the White Sox wealth of talent. Perhaps the Marlins might have an interest in top White Sox catching prospect Zack Collins who is a Florida native that starred at the University of Miami before the White Sox chose him with their first pick in the 2016 June Draft. Chicago also has a bevy of outfielders in their next group of prospects including a top-100 talent in Blake Rutherford who may be expendable if the team is successful in adding one of the better ones this offseason from among Bryce Harper, A.J. Pollock or Michael Brantley.
The Mariners and Marlins aren’t going to need to settle for spare parts. They have commodities with a ton of demand. They’re going to be able to pry legitimate talent for both Paxton and Realmuto.
Blake Rutherford and Zack Collins would each be top prospects on many other teams lists. Rutherford currently sits at #77 on mlb.com’s top-100 while Collins is their #7 rated catching prospect. A couple more of the White Sox prospects in their top-15 might be enough to get the job done with the Marlins.
Few would call slugging 1B Jose Abreu a spare part. A contender like the Mariners might have an interest in Abreu to replace departing FA Nelson Cruz. Adding a couple of the White Sox prospects between #6 and #15 might help the Mariners fortify a weak farm while Abreu addresses a present need on their roster. The White Sox also have a cheap and controllable bullpen arm in Nate Jones that might interest Seattle. Jones has had his share of injury woes but the White Sox would also be gambling on Paxton’s health history for the next two years as well.
OI also don’t see the Mariners undergoing a major tear down which you seem to be implying. The are looking to continue contending.
Mariners probably value Abreu at close to zero. He’s signed through one year 2019, the same year the Mariners plan to take a step back. And he was worth about one win last year. I’m not sure he even counts as positive trade value for the M’s.
I’ll get back to you at this same time next season when Abreu has started another streak of at least 25 HR’s and 100 RBI’s that was stopped in 2018 due to some unfortunate injuries including those involving non-baseballs. Chances are he will do that on the South Side of Chicago and if successful it could be “traded” into a contract extension during his walk year.
Be my guest. Even if were to stop playing poorly in 2019, that doesn’t change the fact that the M’s are looking for long term assets. They just traded two years of Zunino for four of Mallex Smith. They don’t want your “one-year-rental-maybe-still-good” first baseman haha. They’ll just go to the Dodgers or Cardinals or Braves if that’s what the Sox try to offer.
Reading is a skill. My suggestion was, ” Now if the Mariners want to talk about Jose Abreu for the 2019 season along with a package of prospects…”. This proposal could address the 2019 need to help replace Nelson Cruz production and also give the Mariners some long term value beyond James Paxton’s two years of remaining control. In a later comment reply I also put forth the name of a controllable bullpen arm in Nate Jones as another veteran alternative to a multi-player package heading back to the Mariners.
The marlins aren’t even considering a zack Collins and Blake Rutherford package for realmuto. There’s too much demand for the best catcher in baseball who is also on an extremely affordable deal for the next 2 years.
I agree with you, the wise thing for Chicago to do would be to go hard in FA and keep the blue chips and let them grow. They’re very close to being an interesting team if they sign a ton of FAs this year and bring up the kids at the same time.
I say James Paxton and Dee Gordon (only to help the Mariners get rid of the his contract) for Blake Rutherford, Ryan Cordell, Seby Zavala and Carson Fulmer. Maybe another minor prospect.
I disagree with the assessment that the Braves don’t have the finances to secure a tor pitcher. The source the author sited only demonstrated that AA doesn’t believe the Braves are at the point of over paying for that one particular player that make them a world series contender. He very specifically stated in that same article that if the deal makes since for them they will do it. So it seems that finances aren’t an issue for Corbin if the deal makes since.
They do have the money, they’re just smarter w/ FA spending than most teams.
Soroka is our top rated prospect for a pitcher who has pitched no more than160 innings just once and hasn’t since come even close to that before. Even a straight up Pache for Paxton sounds terrible.
Unless the Mariners except a deal that is well under the value of Paxton I hope the Braves stear clear of Paxton.
I myself want Greinke and I feel like I am the only one that comes on this site that does but if he is deemed unattainable than I would like Paxton. For the financial cost over the next 2 years he is a good fit. But the only problem is it’s going to cost a couple prospects. That’s the reason why he is available because the Mariners know they can get an overpay on a return due to the market. Look at the teams already being talked about asking about him. There is major competition. That boosts up what it’s going to take to get him.
And yes it was Sam Freeman why would you think it was Freddie
Why would you think Sam freeman would have any value is the better question.
OK, a few of these teams do not belong on this list… Red Sox have 4 left handed starters projected into their rotation… they don’t need another lefty. Especialliy one that’s injury prone. Price, Sale, Rodriguez and Johnson are all left handed and with Porcello, Paxton would be the number 5 starter. You don’t gut a weak farm system for an injury prone number 5 starter.
The Yankees can get a better starter without giving up any prospects. Sure it will cost them more money… Hah, hah, hah… who cares, they’re the Yankees.
A trade with the Astros or A’s to make them better within their division would add to the price. I don’t see the Mariners trading within the division with teams better than them to make them better. At least until they go all in on a rebuild.
Dodgers have a ton of pitching and plenty of lefty starters. They need bullpen help.
The Rays don’t trade for 30 year old pitchers… they trade them away. In the past 5 years, how many games have been started by a pitcher that’s 30 years old or older? 5 by Romo and 1 by Venters last year… only because they did the “bullpen day” for a while. In ’17 zero, in ’16 zero in ’15 zero… in 2014 Eric Bedard was a starter at age 35.
White Sox need to keep their prospects until they see what they have. Once these guys start playing like major leaguers, then they can deal for what they need.
I could see the Cards taking a chance because they have the depth to cover if Paxton gets hurt… maybe Weaver and Gant and Jose Martinez (a perfect DH to replace Cruz). Cards may want to try and get Saeger as a lefty power bat at third to work in the mix with Gyorko and Wong.
Who is the better starter the Yankees can get “without giving up any prospects”?
Corbin or Keuchel as a Free Agent, which is why he said it will only cost dollars
Neither one of those is better than Paxton.
Side by side….I would take Corbin in a heart beat.over Paxton. The main reason..durability
Too much of a risk for a pitcher who is built like a potato chip, even with great talent..to give up such valuable prospects. Wouldnt be happy with Corbin? Is anybody kidding me?
I’m a big Mariner and Paxton fan, and I’d rather have Corbin.
That’s the biggest lie told on these boards, Keuchel and Corbin DESTROY Paxton.
I think Paxton and Corbin are very similar pitchers. Corbin’s ERA would be higher in AL facing DH hitters. Paxton’s era would be lower facing NL pitchers. Both very strong with Strikeouts. Both I like better than Keuchel.
Corbin had a career year and clearly had a great season. He was worth double the production from 2017.
But Dallas Keuchel in 2018? 204.2 innings; 153 K’s; 3.69 FIP; 3.6 fWAR.
James Paxton: 160.1 innings; 208 K’s; 3.24 FIP; 3.8 fWAR.
This was Corbin’s first dominant year, and he is the more attractive option. But he’s also a free agent and will cost double Paxton’s salary over the next two years. Paxton’s been consistent longer and he’s cheaper. There’s value in that, hence all the trade talk.
Suggesting that either DESTROY Paxton is laughable.
paxton pitches in an airport
Maybe Greinke? They’d pay his entire contract, and he wouldn’t cost much outside of that.
Sold!!!
I’d say that would be a great trade Gyorko, J Martinez, Luke Weaver, Carson Kelly, Brett Cecil for James Paxton and Seager!!
Throw in ponce or Gomber too, they are aaaa starters
Realistically the mariners want to be good when Houston cannot afford to resign all of Springer Correa and bregman. So they are going to want non 40 man talent and players not close to arbitration. So we probably need to take Jedd and Brett off that list. Wishful thinking though!
I imagine Jedd and Cecil are on there because he is taking back Seaver’s ugly contract too
Seager is owed $19M for I believe the next three years and has been struggling the last few years.
But I don’t think the Cards would want that. They’d rather sign Donaldson I would think, and keep Jedd as depth, since they are only paying him $8M for his salary this year (SDP is paying $5M)
But Cecil is owed about $15M over the next two years.
I would think a Seager for Fowler swap would make more sense for both teams if we are wanting to do a bad contract swap
Why mention of San Diego, where Preller may be a little pressed to take the next step.
Yeah I think the cards are the best matchup
Kelly & Weaver for Paxton
To me the Padres made the most sense.
Not enough years of control to fit our “competitive window “ but I do really like him though
Yankees should;d go after Paxton and Dee Gordon. They can put Gordon at 2nd base and move Torres back to SS… We all love Didi but some reporters said he could be out until July/August, so unfortunately he’s not worth 12.5 million for 2 months of games.. So either the Yankees nontender him to save money or they keep him and play him wherever when he comes back..
If they don’t go the Dee Gordon route, they should try resigning Didi now.
Whether they do or don’t resign Didi, it should have nothing to do with Dee Gordon. He shouldn’t be a factor since Didi is a much better overall player.
With a smile Yankees should give them Frazier and Chance Adams for Paxton
They’d obviously have to give up another piece.
Polluted wouldn’t trade Kingery for Paxton… More like Cesar Hernandez.
The Phillies do make the most sense.
Kingery would just be part of the package if he were involved
I’m usually not the type to say a prospect is “untouchable” but I think it would be dumb for the Brewers to trade Hiura for anything but a young TOR arm with 2+ yrs of control and no significant injury history. Meaning I wouldn’t trade him for Paxton. I think he could play in the ML next season, and the Brewers don’t have a solution at 2B. I know most prospects don’t produce at the ML level, but this is by far our best hitting prospect since Braun, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he’s a T15/10 prospect on most lists come next February when most sites post their updates. The man can rake and reminds me of a young Dustin Pedroia.
Yeah, I’d be shocked if they traded him for Paxton. They’d probably want peralta, Burnes or woodruff as part of the package
The Mariners’ biggest need is the same as everyone else’s: Pitching. The Mariners are keeping with a good offensive IF and fleet footed OF. If the Mariners do trade James Paxton, they should get in return 3 for 1 pitching and possibly a high ceiling catcher. Otherwise, there’s no reason to trade him away this season.
3 for 1 pitching fits the Braves but your not getting any top guys if it’s quantity.
Wentz, Wilson & Wiegel
Mets should trade nimmo for him. Then trade wheeler to get Bryan
Wut?
don’t rule out the pirates, though unlikely. Pirates could use a lefty in the rotation and Paxton seems to fit what they look for… Big and hard throwing.
If some of the crazy packages suggested here hold up, would probably be too much for the pirates to give up, but still I’d expect the pirates to make a semi-serious play if truly available.
I’d say one quality top 100 Plus a pair of midrange prospects, more or less depending on any cash/salary swapping.
IMO: Keuchel in the free agent market might be a better fit for most teams depending on what type of deal you could get.
The Ms don’t have to move Paxton, so it’s going to take quality to get him. The Braves have that without destroying their depth.
I’d suggest Newcomb and Riley, esp. if they’re convinced Pache will hit enough to be a regular. Newk should pitch more effectively in the Northwest (can avoid the heat that got in his head as much as anything). I would have suggested Pache ahead of Riley, but Mallex fills the CF slot for them and he’s ready to play at MLB level now.
You’d have Paxton and Folty as 1 and 1A, then Touki, TBD, and Teheran, with a lot of depth remaining.
Soroka and Gohara need to show they’re healthy before the Braves decide what to do with them (keep or move).
Huge overpay and I mean huge, I’m sure glad you are not the Braves GM. I wouldn’t trade one of them alone for Paxton
I’m sure the Braves are glad I’m not as well, LOL.
There’s going to be a bidding war for Paxton, so you can’t just pass off organizational clutter and expect to get him.
I’m not convinced Newcomb can handle pitching a lot (half?) of his games in intense heat/humidity, and his walk totals are disturbing. He’s a horse, so even if he’s not top of rotation I could see him making 30+ starts every year. We don’t know what Riley will be.
Paxton, when healthy, will be as good as if not better than anyone in the Braves’ rotation for the next two years. If his health is too much of a concern to make a deal, then I wouldn’t offer anyone valuable for him.
And the Ms wouldn’t move him to Atlanta.
You’re right, inkstain. There’s going to be a bidding war and Paxton would be Atlanta’s number 1 starter, without question.
That said, I could see AA bailing out of the sweepstakes if the price gets too high. They have the chips, the question is if they’re willing.
Seattle is probably going to try to package Seager or Gordon with Paxton, and possibly with Colome and/or Gamel as well. Hard to envision Atlanta taking on Gordon or Seager, though they would likely be interested in Colome and Gamel.
You have that so wrong, olereb. There is zero chance Newcomb and Riley would get it done. That is a huge underpay. They would wan’t one of Soroka/Wright, plus Riley or Anderson. It may take another chip as well.
If the Braves make a play for Paxton, we would probably see package. Perhaps with Colome and Gamel heading south.
Seriously? Thank you baby jesus you’re not the Braves GM.
Newcomb AND Riley? Come on now. Riley isn’t getting moved in that deal. Riley would only get moved in an Ace deal, a clear legit #1.
Soroka is not going anywhere, he’s in line for #2, at worst #3 for the future. Gohara can be had, he’s terrible and yet keeps getting ranked high.
Andujar has five years of control remaining not four.
The Red Sox should trade Sale for Paxton. His shoulder is getting pretty toasty.
I’ve read every comment in this section and this is by far the worst by far and there’s some really awful takes and trade proposals
Yankees and Cardinals seem like the best fits. A’s are intriguing too, just don’t see Beane paying the intradivisional tax for him.
Dark Horse – Chicago.
SEA sends Segura and Paxton
CHC sends Russell, Schwarber, Bote and a MiLB lotto tickets (A/AA)
SEA can take a chance on Russell, save some coin. Schwarbs can finally be a DH, and Bote can be a Swiss Army knife for SEA this year. This scenario supposes SEA takes the savings from Segura + Cruz and signs a FA starter (maybe Kikuchi) and that CHC finds a way to cleave 10-15MM from their payroll. (Chatwood)
No chance the Mariners do that. Fangraphs released a player trade value ranking and segura and Paxton were both in the top 50. C’mon man you can do better than schwarber and bote… Russell and lottery tickets aren’t swinging the deal. They really don’t have the prospects to get segura/Paxton
No chance the cubs do that. They want to improve the offence. I doubt make a huge move for a SP unless they find someone to take Chatwood and that’s highly unlikely
As a Yankee fan I would consider Paxton and Dee Gordon for Sheffield, Gray, and Thairo Estrada. Solves two needs for the Yanks and Seattle fills two rotation holes and replaces Gordon with a good prospect. The only concerns for the Yankees is Paxton injury history, he is not an ace, and only has two years of control? The other concern as a Yankee fan is Sheffield is also a lefty and we are giving away 6 years of control for basically a similar pitcher as far as where they fit in the rotation.
Dee Gordon has not been the same after testing positive for steroids so taking him back is almost a wash as well.
LOL
Lol x dos back at ya Chief!
Sheffield has proved that he is the equal of Paxton? I wouldn’t do that trade for Paxton alone.
If not trade for Paxton I would just look to sign Corbin and Keuchel. That solves the rotation without giving up prospects. Do we have an ace? Nope, but we have a ton of number two starters and can trade for an ace later if need be! Then build up the bullpen with Miller and Britton. This is the way to go.
Padres….Naylor, Asuaje, Radke and Mason Thompson
I too think the Padres get Paxton. However, I’m guessing the Mariners ask for Meyers plus minor league talent. Dipoto likes to trade major league talent for major league talent.
The Mariners wouldn’t ask for Myers and his 70+ million dollar contract unless San Diego took Seager in the exchange. That could make sense for both teams, though, as the Padres need a third baseman and Seattle needs a corner outfielder with some pop.
Myers for Seager is an interesting idea, whether or not it happens as part of a Paxton deal. San Diego fills their third base hole and moves a guy who doesn’t have a legit position. Seattle can use Myers as a COF/DH (esp with Cruz a FA)..
You can’t give up spare parts and expect to get Paxton otherwise 29 teams would be lining up trying to get a deal done lmao
Yet that’s exactly what you did suggesting Adams and a lesser prospect should get a deal done.
Wasn’t suggesting that… read what I was replying too. I was saying Yankees fans think that
Seriously, if I misunderstood, I apologize. I thought that was your suggestion.
Why paxton IS A SPARE PART. mariner fans know he is injury prone and not dependable,it’s why Depoto seeks to move him. Do Not Want.
paxton is one of the reasons the Mariners fail to contend season after season
There is so much wrong in this comment. Since when does a spare part achieve 4.6 and 3.8 WAR over their past two years?
Um, Naylor, Thompson and Radke aren’t spare parts by any means.
The M’s need an MLB starting caliber catcher now,so that is where any trade conversations need to begin. I think the Padres might be the dark horse for Paxton’s services, as well as the Blue Jay’s. Boston does have the prospects anymore, and the Yankees are lacking as well.
17 other teams need a starting catcher too.
I’ve read enough comments here over the years to know the Yankees will have to give up Torres, Sheffield, and Florial or Andujar for Paxton, and they should be lucky it’s only that
Lol
I’ve also read enough to know they should only have to give up Chance Adams and another expendable piece to get him
Then you haven’t learned much from your time here. There’s zero chance Seattle takes Adams as the center piece.
The only way a team is going to land him without coughing up a couple of top 100 prospects is if they take Seager’s or Gordon’s contract with him, and even then, they’ll have to cough up at least one elite prospect and a couple of solid prospects to boot.
Paxton is better than Cole was. Paxton is better than Archer was. Archer landed Tampa Meadows and Glasnow. The bar is going to be higher than Meadows and Glasnow.
Yeah I agree there’s 0.00 chance they take Adams as the centerpiece. I was replying to a guy who said people out there think Torres + is needed to get Paxton. If you read my comment in context I am saying there are Yankees fans who think Adams can be a centerpiece, which he clearly isn’t in reality
Talking about commenters not actual mlbtr writers
“I’ve also read enough to know they should only have to give up Chance Adams and another expendable piece to get him” ~you.
I didn’t take anything out of context, I took what you said literally. It was impossible to get anything else from that. But thanks for clearing that up.
When he said he “read enough” he meant other comments. He was being satirical. Read through all of his comments and it should become clear. He’s not pretending to change his mind, dude. Stop arguing with him about what HE thinks haha.
The bar is meadows and Glasnow? That’s roughly the equivalent to Frazier and Abreu. Glasnow was an almost busted former top prospect working out of the pen and meadows too had seen his star dim. The pirates may have sold low on these guys but they weren’t world beating top 25 prospects when they were dealt. They did also receive Shane Baz. So a package of Frazier, Abreu, and say Acevedo. That would essentially be equivalent to that package. Maybe you add in another lotto ticket 25-30 org guy.
Braves could match up yet again with LA on a trade. Both Verdugo and Ruiz fill needs for the Braves while Julio Teheran, Luis Gohara, and Koby Allred or Mike Soroka would fit for the Dodgers.
How so? The dodgers have a full rotation. They certainly don’t need to add gohara’s or allards or certainly not Teheran’s. They have maeda wood ryu Kerahaw hill urias and buehler. That’s 7 arms for 5 slots. That’s an injured riddled group so they’ll need all 7 but they need a serious upgrade if their adding a starter. Maybe a Carrasco or Trevor Bauer. But certainly not a Teheran.
What seems to be getting lost in all of this is that Paxton is in demand. Some of these teams really aren’t fits, but others are, and there’s going to be a bidding war. While as fans we tend to overvalue our teams’ prospects, the reality is that acquiring an arm like Paxton is going to sting. He’s a front-line starter, arguably an ace, and though he won’t likely give anyone 200 innings, he doesn’t have to in order to have a huge impact. Kershaw threw the same number of innings last season. Think he wasn’t crucial to LA’s success?
Speaking of LA, they have some of the best chips. Atlanta does as well, but if Seattle could land May and Lux, I think that would be attractive, as Seattle has virtually no middle-infield prospects in the upper-minors. Maybe with Smith, Seattle could also give them Colome and a prospect.
Easy to see how a blockbuster could get done with LA.
Think dodgers would want to see what they have in Urias before moving promising prospects for a short term arm
Fresh Prince isn’t a Dodger.
He goes to NYY. Jerry and cashman have a relationship. My guess. Is Paxton/Ian Miller for Justus Sheffield/Clint Frazier/Romine/Sony gray
Horrible trade for the Yankees. Also, what the hell does Ian Miller add?
I think the Cardinals make a lot of sense for James Paxton and the two teams lineup well for a trade.
Cardinals would likely start the season with a rotation of Carlos Martinez, Miles Mikolas, Jack Flaherty, Michael Wacha, and then a combination of Wainwright/Gomber/Gant/Weaver for the fifth spot. That’s a pretty strong rotation right there. However, Wacha and Mikolas are free agents after 2019. Flaherty was very promising as a rookie, but there’s no guarantee he’ll be equally as effective in 2019. Martinez had an injury prone 2018 season, too. Clearly, the Cardinals rotation has some questions beyond this year. If the Cardinals miss out on Harper, upgrading the rotation could become a priority.
As for what the Cardinals would give up, the package would start with catching prospect Carson Kelly (No. 78 prospect). With Zunino out the door, the Mariners have a black hole at catcher and get one of the games premier catching prospects back. It’s even an added bonus that he’s big league ready. Pitching prospect Dakota Hudson (No. 97) would also be included. He proved too much for AAA last year as a starter, but had an up and down tenure as a reliever in the big leagues. He could slot in the Mariners rotation or bullpen easily. The final piece of the package–and arguably the one with the highest upside–is third base prospect Elehuris Montero, who annihilated Midwest League pitching en route to the league MVP. He isn’t in any top 100 lists now, but I could see him cracking the lists soon. He’s also probably two years away from the MLB.
So in the end, the trade would go: James Paxton for Carson Kelly, Dakota Hudson, and Elehuris Montero.
I think this trade is fair for both sides. What do you guys think–overpay? Underpay? Or is it totally fair?
I think that’s a return that makes sense for both sides. Maybe add in a piece going Seattle ‘s way and that gets it done
As a Cards fan, id want to figure out what it would take to add in Diaz as well. Throw in Reyes as well?
I’d prefer to swap Montero for someone of equal value, just because I personally like him vs other specs
Kelly, Hudson, and Jose Martinez seems like a fair offer.
I could see M’s wanting John Gant, who has a lot of control too
Miles Mikolas is NOT a free agent. You will have the opportunity to offer him ARB until 2022. He will eventually be pricey in arb but controllable on a year to year pact. Great scenario for STL.
It will be interesting to see where and if some of the front line pitchers go. Many contenders would rather trade for a top pitcher rather than over pay for one in free agency. Pitchers like Paxton , Mad Bum, and Kluber would fit the bill..
Is this a joke ? Paxton is not a madbum or kluber. Typical Mariner fan over rating of their players. Paxton is the main reason they fall off every season. For years all we hear were Hultzen and Paxton, or paxton and Hultzen. But the Mariners hyping them never amounted to even one legit pennant chase. And here we are Paxton is almost 30.
Do Not want
I fail to see how Paxton doesn’t fit into that group
fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&…
way to spin my man,
how about Kluber and Bumgarner have almost as many wins in 2 seasons as Paxton has had in his entire 6 year career
wins may not be the best metric but it is the goal after all….41 life time wins for a 30 year old starter is an average of less than 7 wins a season
if im a team trying to actuallywin games I want a guy who actually has shown they know how to do that. CC sabathia isnt great but he just won more games than paxton EVER has
why would a team overpay for a 30 year old under 7 wins a year on average, pitcher?
41 wins in 102 starts (40%)
Kluber 96 wins in 196 starts (49%), 3 years older
Bumgarner 110 wins in 252 starts (44%), 1 year younger
Both have had more run support than Paxton
Why don’t we just not argue wins because there’s no argument to be made about a pitchers ability based on wins.
What sort of a prospect package would it take from the Cardinals to land both Paxton and Diaz in a trade?
I’d think it would have to start with Reyes, and would likely require two of their top 10 specs behind him, right?
Diaz alone will require Reyes+ More top prospects. Diaz is perhaps the most valuable reliever in all of baseball. More valuable than Paxton. The mariners will likely extract more value from trading the two of them separately. I don’t think there’s a package of prospects in STL’s system that maximizes the value for both of them.
“The Braves want a top-of-the-rotation starter, but it doesn’t appear they have the spending capacity to add one via free agency.”
Not sure where the idea they do t have the spending capacity comes from. More like there isn’t a good for on the free agent market that you won’t have to seriously over pay for. Braves have money to spend and have enough to sign a Corbin or Keuchel type, but they’d be better suited to allocate those funds elsewhere.
If the Mariners are willing to retool then hopefully he can get a bidding war going for the Big Maple.
As a Red Sox fan would hate to see this guy go to the Yankees or Astros but both teams have the prospect capital to make it happen. Hopefully the Braves will get involved wouldn’t mind seeing him go to the NL.
If the Dipito can get three or four team bidding war going he should deal him if teams aren’t willing to deal there very top prospects then just hold tight. If he can stay healthy he will be a huge trade chip at the trading deadline. Some of these trade proposals are silly you aren’t getting the Maple for spare parts cmon now.
As a rays fan we need a 2. I wonder if the rays could get paxton or degrom. I dont see either team competing anytime soon so…. Tampa has the prospects to get the trades done so it would be nice to see one of them come over.