As Tyler Kepner of the New York Times writes, in a general encapsulation of the state of play in the current free agent market, there’s still not much clarity regarding superstars Manny Machado and Bryce Harper. Perhaps, as Kepner suggests, with the two belles of the ball still waiting to find a dance partner, the rest of the participants are still milling about, afraid to commit.
Of course, the market is also operating in the shadow of last winter’s dud of a dance, so the factors influencing the secondary tiers of free agency could reflect broader changes mostly unrelated to Machado and Harper. Whether the matchmaking process will be as slow as it was last year remains to be seen; the more interesting question, though, is simply whether there’ll be more money out there for the good-but-not-great players available. As for Machado and Harper, there’s every reason to believe they’ll be paid handsomely.
It’s interesting, though perhaps not surprising, that the conversation thus far has mostly focused on Harper. As Kepner notes, Harper’s gunslinging agent Scott Boras is selling Harper to suitors as an “iconic” and uniquely marketable player. The ever-visible Boras is, of course, also making that same pitch in very public fashion to and through the media. Machado’s agent, Dan Lozano, has negotiated some monster deals of his own, so he’s no amateur. Clearly, though, he is not pursuing the sort of media strategy that Boras is.
The differences in the agents’ approaches are perhaps in some part reflections of genuine personality differences in their respective clients. While he hardly carries any kind of reputation for off-field antics, Harper seems to be enjoying his time in the spotlight, playfully dropping hints on social media and an assuredly unscripted TMZ spot. (Did you know: Harper’s dog is still named Wrigley and he quite likes deep dish!)
Machado, meanwhile, has been more or less off the radar entirely — leaving many to hem and haw over the generally distasteful impression he left during the World Series. In an interview published this morning by MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, Machado has perhaps launched his effort at shifting the narrative somewhat. The 26-year-old casts himself as a humble, hard-working player who shows up every day and cares about winning — which, generally, was his reputation both in and out of baseball circles prior to the recent shift.
Of course, the change in public perception — one that was likely not fully embraced by those that have known him in person for years — was a self-inflicted wound caused by Machado’s cringeworthy comments on hustling as well as some highly questionable on-field actions. Machado says he accepts the blame for how his words came across, but explains: “I was trying to talk about how I’m not the guy who is eye wash. There’s a difference between fake hustle for show and being someone who tries hard to win. I’ve always been the guy who does whatever he can to win for his team.”
Machado unsurprisingly declines to divulge any details about his thinking on an ultimate destination. Generally, he suggests to Feinsand that he’s open to any and all suitors. And he says he won’t do anything to make the process a more-publicized one than it already promises to be. “When the time comes,” Machado says, “there will probably be a few of the teams that I will sit down with in person, but it’s not something I plan on being very public about.” There’s plenty more to digest from his chat with Feinsand, which is a must-read piece, though Machado surely will still have plenty to answer to when he sits down with team owners who are considering committing hundreds of millions of dollars to employ him.
Generally, the final dollar tallies these two excellent young players will command will be the result of an auction process, the course of which will be determined by the quantity and intensity of team owners waving bidding paddles from the gallery. We don’t yet have a firm sense of the field of Machado bidders, but the rough contours of Harper’s market are beginning to emerge. Notably, it seems he may have two more interesting potential suitors.
It won’t surprise anyone to hear the Cardinals and Braves mentioned as possibilities, as they’ve both long been discussed as teams to keep an eye on. But it’s still notable to see some increasing evidence of real involvement. The owner of the St. Louis franchise, Bill DeWitt III, tells Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (Twitter link) that a move for a top-tier free agent is on the table — though he doesn’t necessarily do so in terms that suggest it’s the likeliest outcome. “We could do it, sure,” says DeWitt. “It’s about (considering) putting all our eggs in one basket. We have the payroll room.”
As for the Atlanta organization, which is owned by a corporate entity (Liberty Media) that is theoretically less likely to be swayed by emotion, it remains a bit difficult to gauge the true level of interest. But David O’Brien of The Athletic tweets that he’s getting signs the Braves will be “players in the Bryce Harper sweepstakes.” Whether or not the club will turn into a front-runner, let alone land Harper, is obviously still unclear. But it seems fair to presume that the involvement of multiple, serious suitors increases the likelihood that Boras (or, for Machado, Lozano) will be able to convince one team to enter a new contract stratosphere of the kind MLBTR predicted in its ranking of the top fifty free agents.
Can Machado and Harper just sign somewhere already? Or do we really have to wait until late December of January?
Eye Wash?
It’s an idiom, a sort of colloquialism.
Makeup.
Honestly who really cares these guys aren’t going to sign until March. I would rather get excited in the gems that could be out there right now in rule 5 eligable players and guys who just got DFA.
Thank you, Johnny GM.
Exactly. Harper and Machado and their pending deals make me yawn. I predict they both get less than predicted. Also, market demand doesn’t seem that strong or widespread.
Yankees, Philadelphia, St.Louis, Atlanta, and maybe 2-3 other teams can afford either of these two. It can be argued that the Yankees don’t really have a need. So anyone else should be marketing to the other 24 teams out there. No need for Toronto, or Cleveland, or Seattle to wait to sign a player.
Seriously? 2 things, Liberty Media owns the Braves but they have nothing to do with the payroll. And David O’Brien already quashed his own rumor about the Braves being interested in Harper, try to keep up.
How does the company that owns the Braves have nothing to do with payroll? The controlling company gives the division (team) a budget, and they use that to determine payroll. If Liberty Media cuts that division’s (Braves) budget, that will affect payroll. If they increase it that will also affect payroll. Saying they have nothing to do with payroll is just silly.
I believe that statement comes out of the agreement that Liberty has lived up to since taking over the team that the budget will fall in line with the attendance. Now this could have changed – and it’s up to the Braves how/if they want to spend it (i.e. bad free agent classes or spending it on building international academies abroad is what this money has gone to in the past, etc.).
The team has painted a rosy picture of the next half-decade at SunTrust and there’s been someone that made the argument to sign a big free agent now so that when the current (bad) TV contract is up in 2028 – they will be able to negotiate a larger TV deal from the increased TV ratings that big free agent (and presumed winning teams) would bring to the table. Essentially, you could pay for the player’s contract in the next TV deal – especially if you’re considering Harper’s proposed deals will be 10+ years (through the end of the current TV deal).
While Liberty determines a budget for the team, the team determines the payroll because not all of the budget has to be spent on payroll. Essentially, if Harper’s contract fits into the proposed budget – they can afford him. Not unlike if you got a job that pays better and you were able to get a nicer car with higher payments that fit into your budget.
So it took all that to say that it actually would be in Liberty’s interests to sign a big free agent now because more winning teams, profitability from SunTrust Park and a new TV deal would make their investment its richest it has ever been – and an incredible ROI (return on investment) if they do choose to put the team up for sale after negotiating a new TV deal.
Liberty doesn’t actually set the payroll. They have no involvement. Part of the terms of the acquisition. The team is just a paper asset. It’s a confusing mess that even the Atlanta media doesn’t seem to understand.
They operate as an independent entity even though they aren’t officially independent.
You may be onto something, Run! Suddenly, I find I want to see individual player ROI calculated and displayed along with WAR, fWAR, etc.
Actually, I’d like to see that too.
For $400 million Liberty will certainly have veto power.
Where has O’Brien shot down his own post?
Braves are in on Harper then their not,then they are. Just sign him to keep him from the Phillies. Trade for a catcher and a closer and win the East.
The only way the Braves sign Harper is if he agrees to a 15 year 500M contract where 250M are paid in the last 5 years, when they can have a new TV deal.
Imagine no team wants to pay what they’re asking and it turns out like the Mike Moustakas contract where he had to settle for a one year deal that was worth like nothing
Yeah, they may not get 350 400 mill but if the yankees signed either to 7-10 years 300-340 mill youll call it a steal.
They won’t sign 1 year deals. Theyre 26. Theyll get significant offers.
Players like Moustakas had trouble last year because of the changing market, and the fact that most players last year were not elite and wanted to be paid like they were elite. Harper and Machado are elite, and will get paid accordingly. And they’ll likely sign during the winter meetings.
@raytown I don’t see quite exactly that scenario as happening, but if it gets close to ST and neither is signed (still unlikely, but –), teams will step up with deals loaded with options, even one-year options, to give the players a chance to retest the FA waters.
Both have already received and rejected QOs so that may have some impact too.
Only Harper rec’d a QO…Machado was traded mid-season.
I think the team that gets Harper is gonna regret it half way in. Just like the Joe Mauer contract. And even the Albert Pujols contract. If Pujols wasnt 35 when he signed that contract it wouldn’t be so bad. He was the 6th player to hit 600+ home runs. So Anaheim got that to look back on.
I really hope the Braves don’t go for Harper or Machado I really hope they get Acuna signed to a team friendly contract
When have the Braves spent like what it’s gonna take to sign Harper?
See mike trouts contract? Given increase in market acuna should-break 170-180 mill.
Ain’t neither of them worth what they’re being projected to get.
You asking or telling?
Asking would have a question mark.
By this time next year when neither Machado or Harper are in Philadelphia, Middleton will be looking for a new GM.
What makes you think the Phillies will miss out on both? Middleton seems to really want to spend stupid money, and if they miss out on one they’ll likely doubledown on the other, and give a really stupid contract. And a team offers a player stupid money, they’ll accept.
There’s going to be a lot of stupid money on the table from teams like the Dodgers and Yankees, both of which have more team stability than the Phillies and a greater likelihood of making the playoffs..
Happy Thanksgiving Eve
Thanksgiving Eve is not a thing.
Maybe it is to him..geesh
Of course it is.
Back at ya dude!
I remember this time last year, a lot of the free agent talk was Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb.
I reckon these two are the new Lynn/Cobb..
happy turkey day all, go get crunk
You don’t need to tell me twice.
the “worth”of anyone is relative and it boils down to how valuable you are to someone else.
I am probably a minority but Harper’s talent and age is just very hard to overlook even with all his shortcomings always going to be a manager that thinks he can reach him, he has all the talent that Mike Trout does but has not yet maximized it consistently,. I dont get alot of the hate he gets he is borderline arrogant but that confidence is also valuable. I would like to see him suit up with the Braves but its not my money on the line so I understand both sides.
Bryce Harper’s WAR year by year starting in his first full season – 5.2, 3.7, 1.1, 10.0, 1.5, 4.7, 1.3
For a total of 27.5 over 7 seasons
Mike Trout’s WAR year by year starting in his first full season – 10.5, 9.0, 7.6, 9.4, 10.5, 6.7, 10.2
For a total of 63.9 over 7 seasons
Trout is on a completely different level than Harper. I would not even consider wasting hundreds of millions on a player with one elite year. I would want to spend it on someone who is going to be consistent year in and year out, which Harper is certainly not.
I don’t think anyone is disputing that Trout is far and away the better player. However, Harper has tons of talent, has proven to be a good MLB player, with elite potential. The biggest difference between them is availability…a team can sign Harper and get better…Trout is not available right now.
Yea, I don’t get why people always have to pull-up Trout.
….or you could wait 1 more year for 28 y/o Nolan Areando. Sure, he’ll be a little bit older, but he’ll be playing a more premium position (at a higher rate: GG every season he’s played, Silver Slugger in last 4). I guess we’ll see how many really value the high-altitude and the curse of the splits.
For my money – aside from Trout – he’d be the guy I’d build my franchise around (Acuna’s not far behind…)
Despite your apparent favoritism for bWAR vs fangraphs shorting him by 3 or so by comparison, Trout is arguably the best player ever to this point in his career, so yeah, no Harper isn’t as good. Harper is indeed also in historically great company with his relative age and production. He’s also had some injury shortened seasons that he still put up over 4 WAR. He’s got a much larger range of outcomes than Trout, but he’s been a 4.5 WAR/600 PA guy as his floor. He’s an amazing hitter with above average baserunning and also been miscast as a CF which probably drags down his overall defensive numbers relative to just staying in RF.
At this point in Trout’s career, at the same point in Pujols’ career, Pujols is by far the better player. His first 14 seasons, he had 30 or more homeruns and has a career batting average of .308. He’s a 3 time All Star, plus has World Series rings.
All I’m saying is if you’re going to pay a player $30+ million a year, you better know you’re getting a consistently elite player. Talent is all well and good until you have to pay someone that kind of money who consistently underachieves. Especially considering he has the potential to be a top 5 player in the league. The Braves are better off not spending that type of money when they don’t have the ability to have a top 5 or even top 10 payroll.
With Harper’s low batting average, I have to say, no way he’s a $300mm player. And as the shift is employed more often, his average isn’t getting any better. Apparently, you are a Braves fan. I’m a Cardinals fan. I would’nt want the red birds to sign him either. Machado would be a better player.
Harper contract will be value… pujols contract was bad because he was 31/32 when he signed. Bryce is 26. AL teams that can DH him eventually should be paying him truckloads of cash!
Pujols was a better player at age 32 than Harper will be in his entire life.
The “back half” of his contract is likely years 32-36 which isn’t terrible at all. The guy was one of youngest MVP’s and has been amazing when healthy.
Wouldn’t teams me more willing to sign either player for max money on shorter contracts?
I think they would be foolish to consider a short term deal they will probably have opt out options in the short term though. Too much potential money to leave on the table for such premium free agents. Short term high AAV deals also make it hard for the team to push money where they want it, its a very big hit to yearly budgets.
Sure but players want security. They try to get as many years as they can in the event an injury happens details their career etc.
Why do I have a feeling neither of them are gonna sign a deal until January or later?
Yankees have four more things to do:
1. Sign Harper
2. Trade Gray
3. Sign a BP arm
4. Sign Corbin
You aren’t buying the Harper to 1st idea are You? I don’t see NY paying 30 mill for a 1B.
Now if you move Stanton or judge to 1st to open a spot for Harper in the OF maybe.
No, I’m buying him as the full time Left Fielder. Judge is entrenched in Right, and just like last year Stanton will rotate with Judge at DH for rest.
I agree with everything you said. I just can’t see Cashman signing Harper to play 1B when we MIGHT have a future everyday 1B in Voit yet have Frazier, Gardner and Ellsbury as our only options in LF,
Yanks need a LH bat and LF makes the most sense to place one. Manny is more of a luxury than Harper imo.
I would be happy if they simply brought back Hecchavaria to be Didi’s replacement until he’s ready to come back.
What about Josh Harrison rotating at second with Tyler Wade, and Torres of course sliding over to short?
I agree with your 2-4 predictions. I also believe that Manny Machado would be the more likely #1 fit in the Bronx over Bryce Harper.
Machado will be just fine and will get a huge contract as well. I think his comments were overblown, as well as the sudden hatred for him from “fans” that don’t want him on their team. It’s not as if his play magically changed from the first seven years of his career to not being “Johnny Hustle” once the 2018 postseason started — aside from the Game 4 incident. He was always the same player, but once he verbalized the way he’s played his entire career, all of a sudden he’s Public Enemy #1 among prospective free agents.
That opening paragraph is so queer.
What does this comment mean?
ITS FABULOUS!!!!!!!
Apparently he/she doesn’t think of Machado and Harper as “belles of the ball”. The rest of us do, of course.
That opening paragraph is brilliant! When have you ever read one that had “encapsulation” and “belles of the ball” in the same verse. Kudos to Jeff Todd, the Frank Herbert of baseball writers.
Look, the braves absolutely need to be a player in the Harper sweepstakes. They owe their fans at least that. Should they mortgage everything to get him? Prob not, but he’s a great young player that would fit in fine with a great young team. Plus, who knows… maybe for some reason Harper wants to play for the braves and would take a little less to play for them. Lol Yes I know, unlikely, but to be fair he crushes it at our parks… plus a braves uniform would make him look like the next chipper jones… just saying lol
Whoa I couldn’t disagree more. I think the majority of braves fans dont wont/like him. I dont. Would rather have machado, but that’s alot of payroll to tie up. If braves really want to do something special, call Anaheim and give them whatever it takes for trout, then call San Fran, and give them whatever it takes for mad bum and call it an offseason.
Trout would have to agree, he has a full NTC. Mad-Bum has a limited 8 team.
So? Let’s assume they’ll both agree to come to ATL. If not, at least the braves can say we tried, and move on to the next guy(s).
Because it’s easy to say “and give them whatever it takes for trout” but you always have to consider if the player will agree.
machado wont last a season in atlanta after getting booed for watching a long fly ball bounce off the wall for a single or called out at first without even running out the box. Harper would make more sense but 35mil+ for 110 games a year?
Braves bullpen is more of a concern for finding relievers who dont walk the bases loaded.
I totally agree. We can’t pay that much for him and the bullpen absolutely needs to be addressed with so many shutdown arms on the market. All I’m saying is the owe the braves fans an effort to get him. Sitting on the sidelines while someone else grabs a potential hall of famer at such a young age is no good. Plus, you never know. He might want to play with a young team that shows a lot potential so he wins for the next 10 years. Not just wins tomorrow
Chipper in the same sentence…….
Lol yea I might have gotten a little extreme but u get the idea. He could become a legend much like chipper in a braves uniform, which is ultimately what I was saying
Has Boras finally driven a stake through the heart of that cliched word “iconic” with his terminal overuse and patented random hyperbole?
We can only hope so,
West Coast reppin’. Machado to the Angels and Harper to the Dodgers!
very logical
both guys are very untalented but both are also huge douche bags that believe the world revolves around them. the amount of money they’re asking for is just insane.
Totally agree with you.
White Sox need to first trade for Thor. They are one of a few teams that can then go sign both Harper and Machado. Getting Thor first would be another sell point. With Eloy coming up this year, and Robert the next season, and with moncada and Anderson as young good players, Sox would be filthy
Not likely. The Mets are looking for controllable MLB talent and/or elite MLB ready prospects. The first player they would insist upon from the White Sox would be Eloy Jimenez, followed by Yoan Moncada and Tim Anderson.
The team on the North Side of Chicago is the better match. The Cubs can offer an attractive package from among their OF’s (Ian Happ, Albert Almora, Kyle Schwarber) INF’s (Addison Russell, David Bote) a catcher (Victor Caratini) and pitching (Mike Montgomery, Carl Edwards Jr.). The Cubs might also agree on a simpler swap featuring Kris Bryant.
Lets see now, Braves held out 200K in arbitration on Folty but would be serious about 350 to 450 million on long deal for Harper.
When Pigs fly !
I don’t think these guys are going to get the years MLB TradeRumors has predicted. I think the dollars will be there but I think the years will be around 7 without opt outs or frontloading
Or closer to 10 with opt outs and front-loading.
8 years, first four 30-33 Million, opt out after that four, 27-30 last four.
Yeah that’s where my head was at. The game is changing. Owners don’t want to risk the years like they used to. It’s becoming a young man’s game.
Right premise but low $$. Both want and will get a higher AAV than Greinke and to beat Stanton’s $325M. Both can be done with a opt out after year four with a team override that increases years 5-8 by $6M/year if they produce in years 1-4. Add two option years (which most likely won’t be chosen) for their age 35 & 36 seasons with a $10M buy out for each. Teams with little on the books can do it.
Personally,I don’t think either one gets more than $250 m. I just think the days of big money are over. (Not that that’s not big money) I don’t think the owners are willing to spend 3-4 hundred million anymore.
Harper already rejected 300 million from the Nats, and I’m sure they are still willing to if he wanted to go back to them. The owners of other teams also know this and are still making it widely known that they aren’t deterred by the price so he will absolutely get more than 300 million.
What owners have made it known that “they aren’t deterred by the price”?
The Nationals pulled their offer.
No way Braves sign either!! But it’s fun to think about! Sign Harper, Grandel and trade for a #1 starter!
Please let the Yankees sign both
I doubt harper and machado are holding up the offseason. They aren’t make or break players for most teams.. What team besides the phillies and angels want to spend a lot of money on one or two players and dont want to win. Alex rodruguez didnt sign until after the winter meetings when he was a free agent out of seattle. Most trades and signings wont happen until during and after winter meetings
Why can’t Johnny hustle?
What an odd year.
When the two marquee free agents are such unappealing human beings.
What a weird thing to say.
I really see Harper to the Cardinals. Not typically the type of deal you see from them but I think the interest in Stanton shows they realize they lack a star position player that can be a difference maker with the bat. Mega deals are overall losers historically and this one may be to but his age and build makes this one more attractive. Most guys signed are on the back end of their prime for these deals while Harper hasn’t hit his prime yet. Cardinals have some potential star pitchers but I think they know their star position player isn’t in the organization currently
I would like the Cardinals chances better if Bryce Harper had named his dog Busch instead of Wrigley.
THE CARDINALS MAIN FOCUS SHOULD BE NOLAN ARENADO.
forget harper and machado.
my goodness….harper is a career .279 hitter and i don’t care for machado’s attitude.
arenado is a given .300 35hr 110 rbi and a gold glove every year. 3 young pitchers should get the deal done.