Bryce Harper and Manny Machado will drive the action of the 2018-19 free agent market, as the two 26-year-old stars are in line to land the two biggest contracts in baseball history. Here’s the latest buzz on what teams may or may not be preparing to pursue either of the duo…
- The Braves have been mentioned as speculative suitors for Harper and Machado, and Atlanta even had some interest in Machado at the trade deadline. A pursuit of either player this winter, however, might not be in the cards, as per GM Alex Anthopoulos’ comments in an interview with Jim Bowden and Jim Duquette of MLB Network Radio on Siriux XM (audio link). “We can be in on any player, we certainly have the dollars to do that. I don’t know that it makes a lot of sense….to do deals that are ten years in length and longer at significant dollars with the payroll that we have,” Anthopoulos said. “It’s not a rule for us, but I tend to not see a ton of value from our club that that would make sense for us….That doesn’t mean we won’t at least explore some things and see if we could line up on the right deal and the right term, but I am reluctant to go extremely long in terms of length.” Freddie Freeman’s eight-year, $135MM deal (signed in February 2014, long before Anthopoulos was with the franchise) is the biggest contract in Braves history, though that extension was signed while Freeman was still 24 and in his first arbitration-eligible year.
- Could the Mets take a run at Machado? Recent history would seem to indicate against it, though the New York Post’s Joel Sherman lays out the case why pursuing Machado wouldn’t be so far-fetched an idea, starting with new GM Brodie Van Wagenen’s statement about how the team is planning to contend in 2019. Signing Machado would obviously be a big help on that front, and Sherman also notes that keeping Machado away from the Yankees would also be of interest to the PR-conscious Wilpon family. In terms of payroll, the Mets don’t have any salaries whatsoever on the books beyond the 2020 season, plus even Machado’s 2019 salary could be covered via injury insurance payouts from David Wright and Yoenis Cespedes’ contracts. Sherman also speculates that adding Machado would turn young shortstop Amed Rosario into a very valuable trade chip the Mets could use to address other needs, or the team could try a scenario where Machado plays shortstop in 2019 and Rosario moves to second base, with Machado potentially moving back to third base in 2020 once Todd Frazier’s contract is up.
- The Cardinals will check in on Harper as part of what could be a busy offseason for the team, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. As one industry source puts it, the Cards are “sending signals they are out to be a player” as a response to their three-year postseason drought, and also because they’ve missed out on other some major winter targets (i.e. Giancarlo Stanton, David Price) in recent years. While the Cardinals still have some hesitations about extended long-term commitments to players, they could agree to such a contract in unique cases — as Goold notes, the team’s willingness to take on Stanton’s contract could hint that they are open to the record-setting deal it would take to land Harper. Installing Harper as the everyday right fielder would make Dexter Fowler expendable, though St. Louis could also give Harper some time in center field while platooning Fowler and Harrison Bader between the two outfield spots.
- The Giants also made a run at Stanton last winter, and San Francisco makes a lot of sense as a landing spot for Harper, as ESPN.com’s Buster Olney writes in a subscription-only piece. Beyond the major upgrade Harper would bring to the Giants’ shaky outfield, Harper could find the Bay Area as much of a fit as another often-controversial star (Barry Bonds) did years ago, though obviously Bonds had the hometown factor in his favor. Olney notes that Giants owner Charles Johnson “was all-in on the idea of adding Stanton,” and the club’s traditional willingness to spend big on free agents could be more indicative of future plans than what the Giants’ yet-to-be-named new general manager has in mind.
So you’re saying there’s a chance! 😉
-Lifelong braves fan
I hope not -also lifelong braves fan
H E L L O
M L B T R…….
I know he’s not sexy, he justs hits and fields, but the Mets had an excellent 2B for the last third of the season. They don’t need one.
Now back to the Harper / Machado silly show where people will write the same things over and over at least 10 thousand times before those guys sign.
Nothing like 1/3 of a season from a 27 year old rookie to officially say they’ve found a solution.
Yes, look how awful Merrifield is at 2B for the Royals.
And that Maury Wills guy with the Dodgers. Terrible. Came up at 29.
A “solution”? Most starters on MLB teams haven’t been starting at that position for them for even 3 years. Solution.
I agree. The Braves could afford either player but why tie up 35 mil. For 12 years.
Noooo! AA please stay away. Spread the money around instead. Sign some extensions. #SayNoToHarper
I really don’t think you need to be that concerned about it. I do agree with your money strategy though and considering AA’S comments I think that’s going to he his approach.
As a Giants fan I like your team’s idealogy of avoiding those long 10 year deals. Even at a young age right now, 10 years from now Harper will be 36 going on 37. We have seen at around 32 you’re looking at a major change in production from almost all players, and a guy that goes hard most of the time like Harper seems to makes the chance of a decline around 32 even more likely.
As a fan of the Giants I’m not sure I want Harper to begin with but I definitely don’t want him for more than 7 years.
Fortunately for Harper, he can decline and still be a very productive player. The decline phase for elite talent tends to be a little more graceful
Harper should sign with the Yankees. In that ballpark he might hit 70 HR a year. Those dimensions in RF give away more home runs than banks did when they used to give away toasters! Yankees don’t need Machado. They are solid at 3B, SS and 2B. Plus Manny is a bit of a coconut IMHO. Good player, but he has a short fuse.
Of the two, I bet Harper signs first and Manny might still be sitting at home when Spring Training begins in February. Manny has talent but comes with too much baggage. His new manager will have to massage his ego every day. I’m a Phillies fan and would pass on Machado.
I think Harper, although very good, is very highly overrated. He isn’t a super star year to year like a few other players in the league. Machado makes me nervous that a big payout will allow him to be lazy and have the “cespedes” effect and pack it in at times. He hinted to that type of behavior with his comments during the playoffs. I don’t know if putting any club in financial turmoil is worth it for either of these guys. In a perfect world would I want them on my team, yes, but I don’t know if $400 million for 10+ years is a good investment.
I’m not certain you even know who Harper is then. must be an old man using batting average as your measuring stick if he is not a super star year after year. You are way out of touch
No, he’s not out of touch, and probably not only using “batting average” to measure his ability. Harper is going to be paid like he’s the best player in the game, when none of the stats—old school or new school—back that up. He’s had trouble staying on the field at times, and has only had one really great season. I’m not a believer that WAR tells us EVERYTHING, but Harper has been a 3-4 WAR player on average, and take out his one great year and that dips to under 3.
He’s good, and probably has the better future between him and Manny, but to say someone is out of touch because they don’t think Harper has played like a superstar—i.e., Trout, Betts, etc.—is wrong.
Harper is a top tier player. He goes between all-star performance and MVP performance, through his age 25 season.
His slash is remarkably similar to Griffey through this age, and I think everyone thought Griffey was a superstar.
Harper is going to get paid because he is one of the 30 best to play baseball through his age 25 season, and is a free agent at such an incredibly young age.
He is just now entering his baseball prime, and he has all the tools that suggest he’ll age very well (great power, arm, plate discipline, doesn’t generate his value through his legs or unsustainable luck).
Plus, he isn’t stuck at first base, and can realistically play on any rosters outfield and age into a first basemen.
That’s why he’s gonna get paid.
People over rate and under rate him. Which is odd. He’s a 140 wRC+ hitter who can easily be a 160-200 wRC+ hitter, while being a good corner outfielder. Who is only 26. That’s a special kid to add to any roster.
That’s why he’s gonna get paid. Not because he hits .260 or hits 35 home runs. It’s his age and development arc that make him so attractive
Harper has only had one positive defensive season (2012) according to Fangraphs. If he doesn’t hit at an elite level, he’s a good but not great player.
I agree that he can be a superstar, but so far he hasn’t been. Saying he “can easily be a 160-200wRC+ hitter” means he hasn’t done that, yet is talked about like he IS that player. He has the potential to be that player, but so far he isn’t.
He has done it before though – 197 WRC+ in his 2015 season.
“Harper is going to be paid like he’s the best player in the game….”
That’s misleading, because we all know that if Trout were a FA, he would easily pull down a better contract than Harper would.
Looking at active players under 30 Harper has the 3th highest OPS+. Betts is 4th, 5 points back, and Machado is 10th 18 points back.
The trouble with WAR is that’s cumulative making comparisons hard. For example Chase Utley has a higher career WAR than Trout. WAR In their best seasons has Betts at 10.9, Trout 10.5 (twice) and Harper at 10.0.
Harper has been held down more by injuries than the other 2. To pretend that Harper isn’t comparable to Trout and Betts smacks of some personal dislike clouding objectivity.
Harper is NOT Griffey Jr. Jr’s defense and speed alone are far superior to Harper. Hitting was better as well.
@tad2b13
Below I made a slight typo on my numbers (left off first 2s in the 22s), but I’ll put the correction and expansion here as it leads to a question I want to ask you:
Fangraphs 5 year total 14-18:
672 G, 2805 PA, 22.6 WAR
#15 ranked Cain
670 G, 2863 PA, 22.2 WAR
#17 ranked Harper
expanding
2015-2018
#17 Cain 18.2 over 539G
#11 Harper 20.6 over 570G
2016-2018
#26 Cain 12.1 over 399G
#34 Harper 11.2 over 417G
2017-2018
#16 Cain 9.9 over 296G
#26 Harper 8.3 over 270G
2018
#12 Cain 5.7 over 141G
#46 Harper 3.5 over 159G
So, has Harper been better than Lorenzo Cain in your mind?
I ask because the numbers do not say he has. And I included games to highlight Harper usually had more than Cain even. So why are we talking about Trout at all, Harper hasn’t even been as good as Cain the last 5 years!
Now the answer is the “potential” that Harper has because he is still under 28. But that’s all teams are ultimately really paying for here – a hope he gets better than the sub-Lorenzo Cain level he has displayed over the past 5 years.
Is that worth around 20 million more per season over more than a decade to find out if Harper does become better than Cain has been? Because that is what is being asked of teams.
The alternative is signing short, 3-5 year deals to guys only asking for about 15M per, and teams trying to replicate the production you might get from Harper doing that. Less possible reward, but dramatically less risk, and since you’re paying so much less money you can actually sign 2-3 such guys any given season instead of just having Harper on the books
So I ask this followup, why would you sign Haper instead of 2-3 guys in his past production range every year for about the same money?
$400 million is a lot to pay someone for potential, or development arc as you put it. If while his body was young he never was close to Trout; tended to choke in big situations; why do you or anyone with a checkbook thinks he going to “arc?” Your whole analysis seems desperate to prove a point that in reality, you can’t!
He’s done it once, and he’s only 25.
Griffey didn’t hit 50 before he was 26 either. But he showed what he could and would be.
Same with Harper he can do it, he has done it, he is very capable of doing it moving forward.
Through age 25
Griffey – 142 wRC+
Harper – 140 wRC+
About the same number of PA
Griffey was better defensively early on, regressed hard after injuries.
In 2015, Cain was already 29. Harper has 4 years before he is even the same age as Cain was when you started this comp
Prior to Griffey turning 26 year-by-year WAR:
2.5
5.0
6.9
5.3
8.4
6.8
3.3 (injury, only 72 games, but roughly 6.6 pace over full season)
There is zero comparison between Harper and Griffey when it comes to overall value
Griffey was also never a better hitter than he was in his age 23-24 seasons. His age 26-27 seasons came close, but his decline started at 28.
If the same holds true for Harper, he will never be better than he was from 2016-2017 (when he posted WARs of 3.0 and 4.8) and will start his decline in year 3 of the contract.
Bringing up Griffey is not helpful to your belief Harper is somehow worth that insane contract – it merely showed Harper is no where near as all around valuable as Griffey was and has quite possibly already seen his 2 most valuable offensive seasons
And to this:
“In 2015, Cain was already 29. Harper has 4 years before he is even the same age as Cain was when you started this comp”
Yeah, thats the point.
In his absolute prime, Harper has been worse than post-prime Cain. At his peak he’s not better than a much less heralded guy in his decline. Let that sink in, the best Harper has to offer is not as good as Cain as he passes the 30yo cliff
And now remember, had Harper signed this deal last year at the same time Cain did, 32yo Cain would be ahead of 25yo Harper in value produced on their new contracts – while costing less than half the salary.
You better hope Harper isn’t like Griffey and already had his best offensive seasons! His negative value defensive ability and a soon declining bat, which wasn’t even good enough to have him able to consistently top 4.0 WAR, leads to a whole lot of mediocrity over the rest of his career (most of which you feel he should be making 35-40m a season for, despite only 1 season 4 years ago showing he is worth anything near that kind of money)
In Lorenzo Cain’s age-25 season in 2011 he had 23 big league plate appearances and spent the bulk of the year in AAA. Lol
Harper is a 5 win talent with room for way more, as he demonstrated in 2015. You’re paying for presumably his most productive seasons moving forward.
Buying 1 WAR on free agency has been conservatively calculated to cost ~$8,000,000. Projection systems have him hitting at a 147 wRC+ clip and ~5 WAR in his age-26 season. Lorenzo Cain’s age-26 season saw him hit to the tune of .266/.316/.419 (99 wRC+) and 1.3 WAR in 61 games.
You’re making some bizarre arguments in the face of evidence to the contrary.
Lorenzo Cain didn’t play a full season in the game until age of 28. But that doesn’t matter at all to the conversation – the conversation is that Lorenzo Cain in his post prime years has been a better player than Harper in his absolute prime.
You’re paying Harper hoping he gets much, much better than he has been. Because this:
“Harper is a 5 win talent with room for way more, as he demonstrated in 2015.”
Is just flat out not the case
Only once in his career has he posted above a 5.0 WAR; that being the fluke 2015 season he has never come close to replicating since.
Otherwise, over his prime years, he has produced under 4.0 WARs in 4 of the last 6 seasons.
Players peak physical ability ages run from about 22-28. Harper was a pretty good, not great player for most of that. He still has 3 years before likely seeing his decline start setting in. At 30, 5 years from now, he may follow that path of many similar hitters and see a dramatic dropoff in production
So you have a 3-5 year window that he will likely need to produce most all of his value – and the value you want out of him is dramatically better than the value he has produced over the last 3 years (when he had just the 34th highest positional player WAR at merely 11.2 WAR)
3 year run, just 11.2 WAR – it’s a 3.7 WAR/season average …and that’s in his absolute prime
You pay for Harper and you are praying he does not produce as he has been producing. He does and you have one of the biggest bust contracts ever signed.
Despite his 34 home run, 100 RBI season, Harper was worth only 1.3 WAR this year according to Baseball Reference. In a odd comparison, Justin Smoak was worth 2.3 WAR according to the same site. Is Smoak a superstar then? Harper’s MVP year certainly sets a high ceiling, but he has only reached it once. Edwin Encarnacion, a DH player was worth 1.9 WAR this year and I wouldn’t consider him a superstar. I don’t think Harper has proven enough to merit such a large contract.
No, because the Nats played him in center way too much, and he hit below his xwOBA. Oh, and age.
Harper CAN play center, but he really shouldn’t. He should be in the corner outfields and can back up in center.
Smoak has a .342 xwOBA
Harper has a .386 xwOBA
Smoak can only play first base, Smoak is older than Harper
Over the next 10 years, who is gonna post more WAR?
It’s entirely possible that Harper creates 30-40 WAR
Smoak will be lucky to post 10
I don’t think anyone is arguing what Harper has the potential to do and be…the point everyone is making, or at least that I am, is that Harper has not been the player that perception would suggest he is. Harper’s contract will pay him like he’s been performing in the same class as Mike Trout, and he clearly hasn’t.
You do know that salary is a factor in calculating WAR right? High salary is a negative, and conversely low salary is a plus. That Harper was paid $21.625M compared to Smoak’s $4.125M is a big factor in Smoak’s higher WAR.
You’re using a false analogy. You keep saying he’ll be paid like he’s in the same class as Trout. Not true. Trout, were he a FA, would be paid like the best player in the game, which would be significantly more than Harper would be paid. Harper could sign for $400M this year, and when Trout becomes a FA he’ll easily exceed whatever Harper signs for.
No. Salary is not a factor in WAR.
Let’s just throw away that rwar number. Do you really believe Bryce Harper was as valuable as Scott schebler. I’m a big believer in using metrics but sometimes you have to use your brain and say there’s a little bit of a problem with that number. Will Bryce Harper get more cash than he deserves at this point? Yeah I’m sure he will but he is a much better ball player than Justin Smoak.
No it is absolutely does not. I honestly can’t tell if you’re being serious but for everyone else out there, just wanna PSA that there are zero calculations of WAR that include salaries lol
You are a fool. There are plenty of measures that paint 2018 as a rough year for Harper. He was one of the worst defenders at any position in either league according to defensive runs saved. He is terrible in the field, no range whatsoever (look at the numbers, not an old man). Harper makes Matt Kemp look like Andruw Jones in the field.
You don’t give a player $400 million to be worth 1.3 WAR over 159 games (aka a full season). He’s a really good hitter, but there’s no way he will sign to be a DH and therefore, his defense will continue to drag his value way down.
And he’s still young – these are supposed to be his best years! What happens in the back half of the contract? Maybe the first $200 million won’t be extremely painful, but the last $200 million will almost surely be.
And this was his contract year. What happens when he eases off the gas pedal even more?
“You don’t give a player $400 million to be worth 1.3 WAR over 159 games”
Just want to point out that 2.0 is actually average.
So the earlier mention by the other guy of Smoak and Encarnacion was highlighting that they were merely about Average in 2018 with their 1.9-2.3 WAR
Harper, meanwhile, was way below Average – and that is not exactly something you expect from an “elite in the game”
Through almost 8k innings, Harper is +2 DRS in the outfield.
Some guys have bad years in the field like they do with the bat.
If you think Harper is only a 1.3 rWAR player moving forward, then go ahead and pass on him.
Btw, he has a 3.5 fWAR, marking 4 years in a row where he has had at least a 3.0 fWAR season, giving him 20.6 fWAR over the last 4 years (5.0 per season) leaving him 11th best in baseball.
He isn’t a 1 win player. He’s a 3-7 win player annually, entering his prime.
Okay, a couple issues here.
First, on Def, Fangraphs has him at -30 Def over his career. B-R is kinder, but they still log him in at -3 dWAR. He is not a positive fielder
Second, you give his combined WAR total, but not individually by season. I’m just going to do that for the last 5 years:
(B-R WAR totals)
2014 – 1.1
2015 – 10.0
2016 – 1.5
2017 – 4.7
2018 – 1.3
As you say, FG is kinder (1.6, 9.3, 3.0, 4.8, 3.5) but still not elite numbers (they count him 17th in WAR over that 5 year span, and he’s had the benifit of playing more than many of the guys he’s around)
Does that track record honestly look like a near 40m per season player to you?
Or let’s put it this way:
(5 year total 2014-2018)
670 G, 2863 PA, 2.2 WAR
672 G, 2805 PA, 2.6 WAR
The first is Harper. The second? Lorenzo Cain
“He isn’t a 1 win player. He’s a 3-7 win player annually, entering his prime.”
He’s had 1 season of 7+ WAR. He’s been much closer to a 3 WAR player than a 7 WAR player (3.9 average), and removing his one great MVP-caliber season, and he averages under 3 WAR per season.
Harper was a 3.5 WAR CF last year. If you put him in a corner where he belongs that number would certainly improve. He’s obviously not a CFer and those defensive marks mean little to nothing to me unless whatever team that signs him wants him in center. Which I seriously doubt. I
Harper played only about 1/3rd the year in CF, it marked the first time since 2012 he played more than a dozen off a corner, and the kicker? He was about equally as bad in CF as he was in RF (-15.5 uzr/150 in RF, -18 uzr/150 in CF)
If anything, his 2018 time in CF increased his WAR because there is a dramatically higher inherited value in playing Center than a Corner. He plays in RF all year long and he looses that extra boost while his Def value isn’t really changed much for the better since he was nearly as bad in RF.
So Harper wasn’t even as good as 3.5 WAR last season without that CF boost.
Red Sox had best batting average in World Series . Worked good for them. Didn’t see Bryce in World Series you young whipper snappers keep rooting for launch angle and strike out after strikeout . That homer in 8th down 6 looks groovy.
Yes, bragging about the results of one of the most analytical teams in the game sure disproves the strength of Anaytics
And Anaytics are what is being given to disprove Harpers supposed elite game, so you’re just all kinds of confused and out of place including yourself in this conversation. Maybe take a nap or eat a snickers or something, gramps
I’d like to report a murder lol
100% agree. Machado seems destined to be a contract bust.
Machado is a hell of a lot more consistent than Harper is
I disagree. Watching him play over 900 games I can tell you he is a naturally superior hitter and defender. I would take him over Harper just for the premium defense. He’s a generational type talent. He also seems to be a great teammate despite the antics you see. Their is going to be risk paying any player 30+ million a season but I have no doubt that if he’s healthy he will produce every season. He’s still getting better even.
Machado’s best offensive season: 141 wRC+
Harper’s career wRC+: 140
Harper plays CF with about the same success as Machado plays SS. They’re both projected for ~5 WAR next year, I’ll take the hitter with the superior track record.
…Of the two Harper has the far better Character and I would take him over Cespedes presently (or in the past)in a heartbeat! The years are what scare me because Harper already has had injury problems although that is the price of playing hard sometimes,which he does ,but he does have youth on his side?The best shot for Harper is to get in with a team that has established leadership with guys who have Rings,he’s not a leader yet!That is and was the problem in Washington because that is what they needed.The Sky is the he limit with this guy in the right situation as he grows into a leader and not just a player
Harper’s character is in question as well. His arrogance has rubbed folks and teammates the wrong way in the past.
No way. Machado appears to be a great teammate and he handled last season’s repeated questions about trade scenarios with class and maturity. He’s had surgery on both knees and doesn’t run out every ground ball. I believe him to be of high character, he just gets emotional on the field.
Beliefs don’t really convince me. He’s thrown his bat at Donaldson, stepped on Aguilar with malicious intent, neither things Harper has ever done. I think the industry consensus is that Machado’s a really good player. But a consummate professional who respects his peers he has never been accused of.
Machado to Yanks. Harper to Philly
Yanks might not want him, but at the end of the day I think Cashman reverts to what he’s too often done: set out to buy up expensive players.
I would take Didi all day long everyday. Good attitude and works hard. No drama team player. Bottom line Harper and Machado are good but honestly just aren’t the type of guys I would give those kinda contracts to. I mean let’s be honest are they a Willie Mays, Barry Bonds, Hank Aaron, or Mickey Mantle no but yes they could be and if they believe in there selves then take shorter contracts and dont be afraid to keep proving yourself. Who wants to give Machado a 14 year contract when he couldn’t be on his best behavior for 3 months?
I would take Didi all day long everyday. Good attitude and works hard. No drama team player. Bottom line Harper and Machado are good but honestly just aren’t the type of guys I would give those kinda contracts to. I mean let’s be honest are they a Willie Mays, Barry Bonds, Hank Aaron, or Mickey Mantle no but yes they could be and if they believe in there selves then take shorter contracts and dont be afraid to keep proving yourself. Who wants to give Machado a 14 year contract when he couldn’t be on his best behavior for 3 months?They are talent yes but it doesn’t mean we owe them anything they want. I will take a David Eckstein or Craig Counsell first they have championship and were team players.
Bonds and Mantle would seem problematic from a personal standpoint, like Machado.
It was well documented at the time that all Bonds teammates loved him. He was regarded as an excellent guy to have on your team.
This is accurate. Even at the end, Bonds was more of a media distraction than he was an internal team distraction or issue. He was always well-liked.
Bonds wouldn’t share information with his teammates because he didn’t want them to eventually become his opponent and be able to game plan against him. Lol I doubt he ever won a greatest teammate award. I’ve never heard anything but stories of him being an ego maniac.
There is no reason to bring up taking shorter contracts. Freak accidents and injuries happen, if you can get a 13 year 400 million contract then you don’t settle for something that is a fraction of that, no matter how much you “believe in yourself”
Very true that is something they dont have control over that part but they do have control over attitude and behavior. Which I think everyone can agree they don’t have under control. They are no Jackie Robinson in that aspect. In all honesty they dont even have half of what he had on the line as what he did. So why even consider giving them the type of money until they appreciate where they are. Just my opinion. I just feel the appreciation isnt there and if you want to be paid these amounts that there is expectations and they haven’t earned it, so far the only one close is Mike Trout
If life worked that way there would be a lot of CEO’s needing to return some bonuses. Free market economics dictates that people negotiate their earnings based on what someone is willing to pay them to secure their services. Kind of unfair to apply some ethical baseline to a baseball player but nowhere else. It’s the ownerships money lol I’d way rather players get paid then some old Scrooge McDuck hoarding gold coins.
Please no
I hope the Cards do sign him but I would doubt that they put him in center with the way Bader plays there. I’m not sure what they do with Fowler if he does sign. Platoon or cut him all together?
I think the Cardinals do everything they can to get rid of Fowler, no matter what happens with Harper or anyone else.
Short of dumping him like Panda, how would they do so?
Fowler’s entire contract packaged with somebody like Luke Weaver or Yairo Munoz and it could probably happen
I’ve been thinking Carson Kelly. Weaver has too much long-term value to the Cards. I could see them bumping Dex before packaging Weaver with him, unless it was a stupid-good offer.
Why not just let Fowler be 4th/5th outfielder and see if he can recover?
Ozuna is gone after 2019, Bader and O’Neill haven’t proven they can be relied upon yet.
Too early to cut bait with Fowler who was solid in 2017, and is owned for another 3 years
I don’t think the cardinals are giving talent away to get rid of Fowler. That’s not what they’re doing.
I say try flipping him to the Giants for Longoria. The Giants save some money and open up a spot for Machado.
I would almost be more inclined to give a HUGE three or four year offer and allow them to go back to free agency in four years at 30 years old for another pay day. I would rather be on the hook for a few years over a decade. Something like 3 years 120 or something.
Every team out there would sign up for this idea, unfortunately the player may require an opt out provision but will look for a deal in the 10 year range. Its win/win for player and always big question for the team.
Only way Harper or Machado would likely consider a 3-4 year deal at huge salaries—and not in an opt-out situation—would be if the dollars were HUGE. Not $40M per season, but maybe $50M. And then you’re talking too much payroll per season. It just doesn’t make sense to settle for less money and years when someone will give them 8+ years at or around the same AAV you’re suggesting.
What would you take? $40M/year for 3 years with a guaranteed $120M, or a lower annual payout of $35M or so, but more than twice that amount guaranteed? And they will be getting opt-outs, so they can reenter free agency if they choose.
I am a huge cardinals and have been and always will be but I have come to learn with MO running the show that everyone should know by now that they are not going to shell out the money for a big time free agent. It’s the same ole song and dance every year. He is asked a question and he dances around the answer just like a politician. They don’t spend money cause the fans still come and 40,000 people are in the seats.
As stated in the article. They were willing to take on Stanton’s contract. How’s this any different? Cardinals most certainly will make an offer but we can’t blame MO if the player decides elsewhere. Realistically I would think the Cardinals will offer a 10 year deal with and opt out clause for years 4, 5 ,and 6. Get him in his prime and let him walk in 5 years.
You are right on target, if u have access to STL news on a weekly basis you come to realize that Mo is a professional bull$$hitter who will say what he has to, to pacify the fans. Who knows, maybe this year will be a different offseason.
They were willing to take on Stanton for $300M
They are pragmatic, and thankfully so. Mo has been running the show for 10 years, has a World Series and no season under .500. Cards fans that complain don’t know how good they have it.
Granted, I love to go to game and see a win, and a .500 and above record is great, but have we settled. i want to win playoff games not just finish above .500.
We haven’t settled, just had some down years. Remember those 5 straight seasons of playoffs? Mo has been in the playoffs more years than not. Find the active GMs who have done that over a more than 10 year stretch and decide if you wanna get rid of him. He’s not perfect, but he’s damn good.
You are correct, We people as Cardinals fans are a victim of our own loyalty!
OK let’s get this out of the way, the Mets aren’t gonna sign any FA in the class of Harper or Machado.
The Cardinals were spurned by Stanton last year, but will probably sign Josh Donaldson on a one year deal. Harper seems to be the most logical position player target for the Nationals, Phillies, Yanks, and Giants. Machado defintely limited his suitors with his actions in the postseason, but still should get offers from the Cardinals, Giants, and of course the Phillies. It’s of course fun to see the fans of some of these teams making the case for why these FA’s will sign with their favorite team.
Joel Sherman chiming in with Machado to the Mets?
Now I’ve seen it all.
X, I watched MLB now on Friday and good old Joel was giving his assessment of what the Yankees will do in the offseason, boy that was a must see. Machado to the Mets..Is Frazier gonna play first and block their highest rated position prospect?
“From the Cardinals, Giants, and of course the Phillies?” OK Slevin, putting aside the obvious missing commas around “of course,” why does Machado make any more sense for the Phillies, the Cardinals with their glut of infielders, and the Giants with Brandon Crawford at SS, than for the Mets? As if you know any more than the rest of us. From your comment, you actually seem to know less, but if you toss enough crap against the wall, something might stick. Or maybe you figure that, if you’re lucky, you’ll be the blind hog who occasionally finds an acorn anyway.
God love the Mets fans.
Machado will not be receiving even a cursory glance from the Giants.
He doesn’t fit culturally OR organizationally.
The Giants have a GG SS and a 3B that isn’t going anywhere. Exactly where would he play? And all of that is secondary to the fact that he’s pretty much the exact opposite of what SF looks for in players, character-wise. Lazy prima donna isn’t something used to describe any player they’ve pursued in the last decade-plus.
That was definitely a dumb mistake including the Giants being in on Machado. Nice of you to be adult about it.
lol yes throw 300 million at one player to “make a statement” these teams are doomed if thats why they sign one of these guys
Any team who signs Harper will make an improvement to their team and will also boost attendance probably for 6-7 years.
and pay him 30-40 million per year for 6 or 7 years after that.
cardinals shouldn’t, and won’t sign either.
No chance whatsoever that the Braves sign Harper or Machado because it’s going to come down to money. If they Braves scrounge together every last penny they have, another team can easily come in and outbid them by a significant amount.
So forget it, Braves fans. The only stars you’ll get are via trade. Any free agent will be overpaid for and likely washed up. McCutchen is a good example. The free agent prediction of this site is Michael Brantley, and I pray they’re wrong because that would be the worst Braves free agent signing of recent memory. The Braves might as well throw their money into a fire pit, as he’ll be hurt the duration of his contract.
Atlanta has the money, it’s just not the smart move with the money they have available. If I had to pick, I’d pick Harper for Atlanta to sign though. I’d hate to see it, but it’d fill the seats well and he’d provide a good bat behind Freeman.
I’m not sure why you’re so dead set against Atlanta making a FA splash.
Like I said, even if they want to spend money and make a substantial offer, another team can easily outbid them. Harper would be an awful signing for any team, given the price projected to land him. Machado would be a much better buy, but the Braves will be outbid for him.
They can match anyone for Harper. Is it smart? No. Can they be the highest offer? Yes.
Machado is a terrible SS and he needs to stick to 3b, and Atlanta doesn’t need that.
Atlanta needs a RF, if there’s one, they pick Harper..
If the Braves got into a bidding war with either LA team, the Yanks, BoSox, Phillies or even the Giants, they’d lose out on Harper. And that’s fine. Harper is trash and the Braves should know that better than any team. Machado is worth it, and the aforementioned teams have more money to outbid Atlanta, and they will do so. There’s no sense in denying that fact.
OK, I give up. What’s an Atlanta Barve?
You don’t sound like a jaded Braves fan at all lol calling Harper trash when he’s been a historically productive player through his age-25 season.
He’ll be trash in terms of not living up to whatever ridiculous contract he’s signed to.
Stu Baron, The Barves name came from a tweet from one of Atlanta’s beat reporters where he misspelled Braves while he was tweeting about a bad play they did during a game. Since then they are the Braves when they do something good and the Barves when they mess up.
That’s not true. Look up the t-shirt.
No machado to the yanks. I’d rather keep andujar and didi
you’re allowed to keep both. lol i dont think cashman is sitting at his desk like “oh if we get machado that means we have to dump andujar and didi!”
Where would all 3 play? And how do you know what cashman thinks
Didi might not even return this season! He’s having TJS! If everything goes well he might be back for the second half of the season and then he’s a free agent after the season
I would love to see a bad contract swap of Fowler for Shark trade. Would open a rotation spot for Shaun Anderson!
Cards don’t need or want another starter
If there is any bad contract swap there, it would be for Melancon, not a starter
No body will take shark until he proves he can pitch again, maybe at trade dead line next July
The history between harper and Strickland would make for a very interesting club house dynamic.
The Giants would let Strickland go in a heartbeat if it meant getting Harper. Strickland could be a non-tender candidate anyway. He’s clearly not a closer, makes questionable decisions, and will start getting expensive now that he’s arb eligible.
The only reason the Giants take Strickland to arbitration is because they have an absolute slam dunk case against him:
His on and off-field antics which have led to suspensions and injuries have cost him serious time. They can and likely will lowball him and win that case with ease.
That said, I think there’d still be several teams who would jump at a trade for him. I think that’s a more reasonable route.
Cards should just pony up for Donaldson, if he’s really willing to take a one or two year deal. If they really want to hand out a 10 year contract I’d rather get Machado than Harper.
No way the Braves sign either Machado or Harper
It is impossible for Harper or Machado to live up to expectations making 30 million plus a year. They both need to to contenders who’s ownership is obsessed with winning. Harper is well liked in Washington he might be better off staying, if he leaves the Dodgers, Cubs, Cards, and Phillies would be good fits for him.. The Dodgers get him, they have the most money and want to win bad. I have to go along with the experts on both, Machado is the best fit for the Phillies.
How has Harper been controversial, let alone “often controversial” like Barry Bonds?
So you don’t watch baseball, then?
No, I do. I’m a Braves fan and see Harper a lot. What has Harper ever done that is so controversial that this writer needs to compare him to Barry Bonds in that regard? Sure, he’s been tossed from a few games here and here. Who hasn’t? He made some comments about the game being slow…”tired” is the word I think he used.
He doesn’t play dirty. He’s not constantly running his mouth. He’s not a cheater and doesn’t resort to bush-league antics like Machado. What is it?
I think people who don’t really watch baseball like to buy into some fabrication that Harper is some sort of punk, but there really isn’t anything to back that up.
Ya Harper by all account is an extremely dedicated professional athlete. I don’t really know how Harper got the villain characterization but he hasn’t earned it and it won’t die.
He doesn’t run hard to first base, at times he doesn’t seem to try to catch fly balls that should be outs, he doesn’t take the extra base, he is not a vocal leader in the club house, he sometimes makes dumb comments to the media that alienates his teammates. In other words, he’s got the reputation of being a selfish player.
The biggest “Hype” free agents looking to land two of the worst and obviously frivolous contracts in history!!!
Darren Dreifort, Carl Pavano, Albert Pujols and Bobby Bonilla would like a word.
Everyone wants to criticize the Cubs for giving Jason Heyward such a hefty contract, but even he had a higher WAR in 2018 than Harper.
Somebody will overpay for Harper, and they’ll regret it within the first 4 years of the contract. It’s the nature of baseball. He’s a good player, but it’s been proven time and again that big money, long-term contracts rarely pay off.
Machado will be a bigger bust. His attitude will turn off fans when he gives 50% of hustle. Boras will wait until after the first of the year and the most money to have them sign. Remember when Stanton signed and they called that a bargin but not no more. Both harper and Machado will be regrets in 4 years.
Blah blah blah……..
I hear ya’.
He’s got to do everything he can to keep the most fans in the top baseball market interested. Shoveling that malarkey is part of it.
How “free” is Free Agency if there’s about 5-7 teams possible for Harper/Machado and about 10 teams in on the rest of the top 20? And THAT might be a stretch…..I haven’t seen the Rays or Reds or Royals predicted for Bryce or Manny.
MOST long term deals are an albatross; spare me the unique guys like Bonds, Maddox and Scherzer. MOST won’t work out; there’s 10 Heywoods (at least) for every Scherzer.
Roster turnover is not the negative it used to be; can you imagine Mantle in anything but pinstripes? But modern fans are more into roster building through annual trades, with RARE exceptions (the Trouts and Betts-es of the world).
I whole heartedly agree with you sir and if teams could put in behavior or hustle clauses in these contracts would be the only way I would consider possible contracts of these sizes
So it’s unfair that only the richest teams can sign top FAs, but then teams are stupid for signing top FAs?
Yes and yes. The points are hardly contradictory. My understanding is that there are tax advantages to for teams to sign long-term contracts; I’m not a CPA. And there are marketing advantages. But from a purely performance perspective, just about every long term deal has been a mistake.
Who’s Maddox?
I love my Mets and they SHOULD be a major player for Machado BUT they still have the same ownership and a “joke” reputation that comes with that ownership and upper management. You have a great starting rotation and signing Machado would greatly improve their offense. Then make a package for Realmuto STARTING with Rosario & Alonso. BUT reality is just to get Machado’s attention the Mets are going to have to way over pay because of their reputation and mismanagement.
In this hypothetical scenario in which the Mets sign Machado… Why would the Mets trade Rosario? That seems like some silly speculation by Joel Sherman, considering that Rosario appears to be a star in the making. What could they reasonably get in return? They don’t really need another positional player to make such a trade worthwhile. You can’t trade a talent like Rosario for relief pitching. So that pretty much leaves starting pitching as the only option. Perhaps my perception of the Mets is off, but they seem to have a pretty good rotation.
It’s also odd to pose that Rosario’s use/future would be in any way tied to Todd Frazier. Wouldn’t the Mets be better off keeping Rosario at short, playing Machado at third, Jeff McNeil at second, and either platooning Frazier at first or maybe just taking the financial hit by releasing him?
I think you’re reaching by calling Amed Rosario a star in the making. It’s not even clear he has the ability offensively to be a league average player.
Sign Harper to replace Markakis. Not only does it make our outfield significantly better, it also keeps Harper away from Philly. We have enough young talent to improve our rotation and pen via trades. Time to put on the big boy pants and get it done. Probably do enough Jersey sales to recoup a couple million.
Both of these guys will end up signing a huge back loaded long term contract with a short opt out option like 2 years. Probably make about 20-23mm per year in the first 2 years. No one is convinced these guys are worth it until they rebuild some value and commitment.
Why would they do that? It would be a player option back out not a team option back out of contract. It would make no sense for a player to sign a deal that is back loaded in which the team can get out of. If they back load the contract the player would be the only one with a option to opt out.
I meant player opt out.
Normal Brain: If anyone could, the Phillies are the team who could land both Harper and Machado.
Galaxy Brian: What about….the Mets 🙂
The Braves don’t need either.
Trade Riley, Wright, Wilson, Braxton, and Inciarte to the Indians for Corey Kluber.
Trade Pache, Newcomb, and Allard to the Dbacks for Peralta and Bradley.
Sign McCutchen. Bring back Suzuki. No need to trade for a catcher.
Sign Britton.
Done!
Those both sound very typical of Anthopolous. Trade tons of future value and go onto the next job before the fan base figures it out.
Bryce is going to Cubs or Dodgers. Manny isn’t going to the Yankees because the last thing they need is a toxic clubhouse cancer
Mark, I know you’re rusty and kind of the forgotten stepchild of the MLBTR writing crew, but Charles Johnson, the former Gold Glove catcher, is NOT the owner of the San Francisco Giants, so you can remove the link.
(He only hit .187 against San Francisco in his career, so he didn’t own them ON the field either.)
The Cardinals are too cheap
One thing for sure about the Cardinals for 2019. As long as John Mozeliak is still employed by the Cardinals, you can bet your bottom dollar he will do NOTHING except blow noncommittal….HOT AIR. That has been the M. O. of Mo.
First off in my opinion I don’t think Harper is going anywhere. I think the Nats who already are making moves will make every effort to keep him. Secondly as a braves fan I would like us try to work a deal for Realmuto. I would love to get Marwin Gonzalez. He can play anywhere.His flexibility along with Camargo would solve our third outfield problem. Once Riley is up we should be set. This will allow the braves to concentrate on an ace an d shore up the pen.
Love the BS that AA is peddling, no way the Braves would/could spend to win the Harper or Machado mega lotto. Truthfully why should they, can get a few pieces for that amount of money and make the club stronger in other areas.
Does Charles Johnson the former Marlins catcher own the Giants? The link in the article says so, but it seems unlikely.
Harper would look great with the birds on the bat!! Go Cards!!
Julio,Anderson,Waters,Gohara
For
Kluber???
Fried,Contreras,Allard,Dermitte
For
Realmuto
Then the Braves try to sign Harper,cause they struggled so much down the stretch with runners in scoring postin and couldn’t drive them in.We need a power bat behind Freeman.Thats why Freeman power number were down cause he had no protection in the lineup,Markakis was great what he brought to the Braves but we need more power in the lineup.
Braves 2019 lineup vs AL team
1. Acuña RF
2. Albies 2B
3. Freeman 1B
4. Upton LF
5. Donaldson DH
6. Ramos C
7. Camargo 3B
8. Inciarte CF
9. Swanson SS
mlb.com/news/10-reasons-cardinals-need-bryce-harpe…
For Cardinals fans, this gets you pumped! But with so many teams in on Harper, gotta be careful about getting the hopes up. Would be nice to have that center piece though!