As the Red Sox gear up to defend their 2018 World Series championship, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes joined WEEI’s Rob Bradford on this week’s episode of the Bradfo Sho. Tim and Rob discuss the recent Top 50 free agent list published here at MLBTR, with a specific focus on a number of Red Sox free agents (Craig Kimbrel, Drew Pomeranz, Joe Kelly) and a quick look ahead to the 2019-20 offseason as well. Once you’re finished listening to that, here are a few notes from around the American League…
- Indians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti appeared on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM today and briefly touched on the recent suggestions that his club would entertain the possibility of dealing a veteran such as Corey Kluber (Twitter link, with audio). Antonetti downplayed the possibility and emphasized that Cleveland is in a good spot in the sense that the roster is rife with players whom other teams covet — Kluber included. While that basic fact leads to many discussions, Antonetti said on multiple occasions that he feels the Indians are in a “good spot” heading into 2019 and didn’t give any real inkling that there’s pressure to reduce payroll. That said, it’s worth pushing back a bit to note that Cleveland projects to a record $145.5MM payroll next season despite a clear dearth of established outfield options and a questionable bullpen mix, among other needs. Finding a taker for some or all of the remaining $17.5MM on Jason Kipnis’ contract would go a long way toward alleviating some of those financial constraints, but the club will surely consider other avenues as well.
- Matthew Trueblood of Baseball Prospectus takes an interesting look at Whit Merrifield’s offensive profile, noting that while the Royals’ unsung star doesn’t rate especially well in terms of Statcast metrics like average exit velocity and hard-hit rate, some of his shortcomings can arguably be attributed to the pitfalls of averages and extremes. Merrifield ranked well when looking at incidents of a 95+ mph batted ball with a launch angle between 10 and 30 degrees, and when adding plate appearances that resulted in walks to the equation, he ranked more than 200 places higher than he did in bottom-line average exit velocity. It’s a very intriguing read on one of the game’s most underrated players and a player who could likely fetch a fortune on the trade market. Of course, both Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star and Rustin Dodd of The Athletic have each recently penned lengthy examinations on why the Royals aren’t likely to trade Merrifield this winter, even though they look unlikely to contend in a weak AL Central division in the near future.
- White Sox GM Rick Hahn spoke at length with James Fegan of The Athletic about the organization’s philosophy on pitch framing. Hahn suggested that the team believes it easier to improve a catcher’s framing than his offensive capabilities, noting that Tyler Flowers went from a bat-first prospect to an elite framer during his time with the organization. Fegan explores how that belief led the team to sign Welington Castillo last offseason, the multiple factors that derailed Castillo’s defensive ratings in ’18 and Omar Narvaez’s progress at the plate but continued defensive issues.
its gonna be hard to move kip’s contract. bout the only way you can is if you bring some bad salary back in return. at which case i’d rather keep kipnis
Right, his contract is immovable. A guy like Moustakas went for 6.5 million last year, and I’d much rather have him. That contract isn’t going anywhere
If you couple kipnis with a nice prospect, a team with deep pockets could essentially “buy” the prospect from them by taking on kipnis’s contract.
Or you could pair him with Kluber and get back an incredible return, but not as much. Even if you add Kip’s contract into Kluber’s 3 controllable years, he’s still a bargain.
Agreed but if Kluber is traded, I hope they shoot for maximum talent return rather than payroll relief.
Ellsbury and some $$ for Kipnis. Done
Ellsbury still has 2 years at ~$21M a year + a $5M buyout. Kip has one at 14.6M + a $2.5M buyout.
” one of the game’s most underrated players and a player who could likely fetch a fortune on the trade market.”.
I’m confused as to the value of Merrifield. I asked some Royal fans what they felt a Yankee package would look like for him in a trade and it was sort of underwhelming. (Sonny Gray and a lower end prospect). I felt that was too little. However, “likely fetch a fortune: seems a bit extreme.
Can Royal fans let me know what they feel would be realistic. Obviously were not talking (Andujar, Torres, Sheffield, Florial).
Serious question.
Who cares why some random royal fans say? Its what the market says.
this article proves that metrics don’t always make a real player up. On a given note, whit is worth a 4yr 60 mill deal based on stats but everyone stuck on WAR.
Good for them…Id take Whit on a club playing small game, needs run scored, ECT.
Agree NotaGM. Fantasy stats and in my view a loaded ball have distorted the most important tool GMs and fans alike have: our eyes. During the course of a year, hotshot doubleplays and “little loopers” should balance out but watching a season will tell us if not. What is important is strikeouts because the ball has to be put in play, 150 – 200 + strikeouts for multiple players in the 1 – 9 lineup? That’s a key reason why the game gets boring. Too many people (IMHO) are either viewing the game with their fantasy roster first or are great video game players and then want the real game to emulate how they put a lineup together and control the action with their hand. It used to be the other way around, we played games to emulate the big leagues.
It’s hard to take this as a serious question.
Hate to be a WAR guy but for simplicity sake Merrifield has 5.5 rWar this year and has 4 years of control remaining, one at the min. Andujar had 2.2 rWar this year and has 5 years of control left, 2 at min.
So if they hold at what they did this year then for about the same cost Merrifield will deliver 22 rWar and Andujar will deliver 11. And yes of course Andujar is very young and Merrifield is getting older but the numbers are not close. So if there is an obvious there is is more the opposite of what you were getting at.
Your not expecting Andujar to improve? He was a rookie and the expectation is he should improve. Not a good comparison in my view.
Even if/when andujar improves I don’t think he’s a 5.5 WAR player like Merrifield. That’s obviously apples to oranges because Merrifield isn’t a 3B but Merrifield is the better ball player. His age and the fact that they don’t play the same position are the only thing that would make you consider that to be a bad 1 for 1 swap. It’s rare to see someone like Merrifield with very little service time at his age. If andujar were like Machado was at that age I could understand. MM ripped a ton of doubles like andujar but he obviously filled out and turned them into HRS. I think he will get better with time but he’s already filled out physically so i don’t think he’s going to get any help there. The biggest thing with him is going to be much improving his defense. If he does that then maybe he can be a 4-5 win player but it needs a lot of work.
I like the thought of trading Kluber along with Kipnis and Gomes to a team like the Padres or Phillies, and you could still receive a good prospect return back. Kipnis and Gomes can both become free agents after the 2019 season, so while they come with hefty price tag for next season, it’s only 1 year. The Indians could shed nearly $40m in that trade, sign a couple bats and a couple relievers and be a more well-rounded team going forward. Let’s be honest – with or without Kluber, the Indians will likely cruise to another AL Central title.
The other suggestion I’d have would be to send Encarnacion with Kluber to Houston, but then you might shoot yourself in the foot if/when you face them in the playoffs.
Your comment needs the down vote button so bad. trade kluber for a prospect!
No one wants Kipnis’s crappy inflated contract. Let along give up a prospect in return to take on that terrible contract. The Indians would’ve to pay a majority of it to move him and get nothing back still.
Trading them for a prospect does nothing for the short window of opportunity they have. Plus trading Gomes leaves the a Tribe with Perez and a minor leaguer catching? LMAO
As a Padres fan I would take on Kipnis to lessen the package back for Kluber. Maybe something like:
Reyes/Renfroe, Kirby Yates, Josh Naylor, Austin Allen, Cal Quantrill, and Pedro Avila for Kluber and Kipnis.
That offers more depth than impact players but Naylor should perform well and is about ML ready. Renfroe or Reyes both have power for a corner OF position. Kirby Yates is a good setup guy with two years of control. I think that might be too little still for Kluber depending on how you value Reyes/Renfroe and how much payroll relief of Kipnis is important.
From the sounds of it, the only way Antonetti is giving up a top-5 SP is with depth and impact players. Considering the market, he should get that. There’s enough teams with quality farms and in need of TOR pitching that would give up substantial returns for that.
If you think your team could win a trade for Kluber – you’re not giving up enough.
The Padres could just hop in their time machine and do the Jake Westbrook deal over again.
Antonnetti is kidding himself if he thinks that the roster is in a good place. Your outfield is a guy pushed from second base for better options and a group of guys that should be 4th outfielders that will fight for the spots or platoon. Who knows if Miller and Allen will be major losses in the pen or not but you still have to find at least a 2 solid setup men for the 7th and 8th and probably 1 more for insurance at a minimum.
Oof kipnis is making 14.5 mill next year? That’s so vital indians find a way to move that with the holes they have to plug this winter. Indians gonna be interesting to watch
No one wants Kipnis’s crappy inflated contract. Let along give up a prospect in return to take on that terrible contract. The Indians would have to pay a majority of it to move him and get nothing back still.
And he’s making 17.5 million. So it’s even worse.
That’s why i was implying the indians have to find a way to dump him. Whether that be latching him into one of their pitchers in a trade or something else, they have to find a way.
Kluber for Andujar who says no?
Yankees Andujar is still under team control for 5 years
Indians. And I’m a Yankees fan.
The Yankees would, and should jump on that in a heartbeat.
It would take more than just Andujar. Would probably require the Yankees to also trade Sheffield as well so the Indians get an MLB ready arm in return.
ey approved
Agree, I saw on a couple chats (fangraphs or MLBTR) the expected return would be closer to the Chris Sale trade. Kluber is older but should age better than most due to stuff/command.
It really shouldn’t take more than Andujar. Sure Kluber is better now, but he’s also making close to 20 million and Andujar is at the league minimum and had more control. The Indians could obviously bolster their team with that cap savings in many places.
Andujar is better than the Sale return. I’d take him over all the guys the Sox got in a heart beat.
I’m also sure you’re the type of guy that would designate Schwarber as “untouchable” LOL. Stop trolling and worry about your cubbie team and how they were the shortest dynasty in the history of sports.
I think you would only be able to do that due to hindsight bias during a short window. Who wins a trade like that is still a ways off. Andujar is still a liability on defense and has only been successful for one season. Kopech could become an ace and Moncada is still young enough to become a solid big leaguer.
Sheffield is a major league ready arm, how about Florial, Sheffield, Abreu, Adams, and maybe Frazier for Kluber.
What are you talking about? I’m not trying to insult the White Sox, but just making an honest assessment that Andujar is better than what the White Sox for for Sale. It seems pretty obvious, but you sit there and act like I’m going out of my way and making stuff up. You small minded turd.
That’s all true, but I’m simply saying I’d take Andujar and his subpar D over the White Sox return. I don’t even really think it’s close either.
I like the Chapman return better. Or even the Quintana return. Both of those were prob the most lopsided mlb player for prospect in the last 10 years
Way to turn this around about the Cubs. Typical paranoid White Sox fan. Someone else brought the Sale deal up not me dbag. I know you can’t help it and are just insecure that you’ve got to insult the Cubs
Why does everyone keep including Sheffield in deals to the Tribe. They already had him before, and agreed to include him in the Miller trade for a reason — he’s a #6 or #7 type starter.
You’re insane! Shef is a top 30 MLB prospect. Nobody is viewing him as a #6 or #7. The Indians traded him because he was 3 years away, not because they didn’t like him.
Yes it should take more than Andujar to get three years of a two time Cy Young starting pitcher whose contract is affordable for a big market team. It will take Andujar and more strong pieces to get Kluber.
I actually think that’s a fair deal.
Considering what their owes in the future and length of contract, that’s a fair deal
A “fair deal” is one that helps both teams. This proposal only helps the Yankees.
Andujar on a league minimum contract and the Indians saving $20 million to spend else where doesn’t help the Indians? I’m not sure I understand.
Bush the issue you have is so many other teams would beat that deal if the Yankees simply offered Andujar.
I realize Andujar isn’t good on D, but people are underestimating what Adujar just did last year, and what he’s projected to do. He’s much better than a pile of risky prospects. He’s already mashed in the Majors and is dirt cheap.
Kluber is worth much more than Andujar. Yankees would need to add to that package to get an ace like Kluber. Also, the Indians need outfielders, not an infielder/DH like Andujar.
Kluber is also 40 times more the cost and has less control than Andujar. It’s not as simple as saying X player is better than Y player. Contract and control tell a different story, and I believe it makes that a fair deal.
Kluber is a huge bargain for an ace pitcher. He’s one of the best values in baseball.
You are right that Andujar is inexpensive, but Kluber isn’t a straight salary dump. Cleveland would be much worse off if they made that deal.
I agree that Klubers contract isn’t bad, but Andujar’s contract is on a whole other level of league minimum so it’s a way better contract than Kluber. Yes Kluber is the better player, but the savings and control added makes up for it
If Cleveland weren’t planning to contend in 2019, that deal would make more sense for them. But they are planning to contend and Kluber is a legit ace who will make $40m for the next 3 seasons total. That is NOTHING for a pitcher of his caliber. If you think Andujar gets you an asset like that on his own you are mistaken.
Andujar might be better off used in a package for Paxton instead.
First off it’s more than $40 million the next 3 years. Second I’m not comparing Kluber’s contract to other overpaid pitchers around the league, I’m comparing him to a guy who makes $500k a year. And if you want
to sit here and act like and extra 16 million a year is meaningless to the Indians I think you’re off base. My point is solely comparing Kluber’s contract and Control to Andujar’s. And Andujar is way way cheaper, has two more years of control, and isn’t old with a ton of mileage. I’m going to pass on this argument in the future because I can tell you’re not changing your opinion and I for sure can’t agree with your point on his salary being so great it’s meaningless.
Also the Indians could go and sign Keuchel to a 3 yr 48 million dollar deal and have Andujar and Dallas for the same price as Kluber. Just an example, but my whole point is the dollar savings would be reinvested hopefully smartly.
Bush, when you stated “Yes, Kluber is the better player” you answered why a one for one trade would not happen. Also the money and years of control DO NOT make up the difference.
I disagree.
Bush league. Not even worth arguing with you honestly. The Sox got the consensus #1 prospect in baseball and another top 20 high upside pitcher in Kopech. Just because Moncada has done jack so far doesn’t have anything to do with his value at the time of the trade. His value at that time was closer to a Vlad Jr or Victor Robles type of prospect. And Keuchel is going to sign for 3/48?? In what world? Let’s say that they could for fun. By that same logic the Indians could sign Donaldson back for 1/20 and keep Kluber and be better off next season.
Andujar is most likely a future 1B or LF-er. Moving him to the outfield solves one problem for the Tribe.
What makes you think that he can play the outfield? He already can’t play the infield.
Hmm Jose Bautista comes to mind. Kipnis too.
So you’re saying he can be a bad outfielder too? Not sure that helps the Indians a ton.
I do.
Just think if the Tribe traded away everything they currently have for prospects. They would have the best team in the league in 3-4 years.
Unless you know..& I’m just ball parking. What if the prospects don’t pan out?
Can the Indians package Jason Kipnis and Corey Kluber in a trade to get a great return?
They can package Jason Kipnis and Corey Kluber in a trade to get a worse return than they’d get on Kluber alone…
Kipnis sucks and is way overpaid. He would just bring Kluber’s value down if you tied them together in a deal, so I wouldn’t.
I am surprised that we haven’t heard more about Danny Salazar being moved. I believe he is up for arbitration after missing last year with injury. Would seem like a good buy low or non tender guy. Moving him would save $$$.