Statcast Standouts: Pending FA Hitters

Major League Baseball’s postseason has shrunk to four teams, meaning we’re only a few weeks away from the opening of free agency. As always, some pending free-agent hitters are coming off excellent seasons in terms of bottom-line results, while others posted uninspiring production in platform years. Thanks to the introduction of Statcast (via Baseball Savant) a few years ago, we now have a better idea of which players deserved their results from this past regular season. With that in mind, using two Statcast metrics – expected weighted on-base average and average exit velocity on line drives and fly balls – we’ll take a look at the top pending FA hitters at each position. These numbers don’t factor in a batter’s age, handedness, his defense or his expected asking price, of course, but they give a better idea of what kind of season he’s coming off as a hitter as he heads to free agency.

(Note: We’re going with exit velo on liners/fly balls as a way to take grounders out of the equation, as they’re simply less valuable than air balls.)

Catchers:

Expected weighted on-base average

1. Yasmani Grandal – .345 (real wOBA: .352)
2. Wilson Ramos – .342 (.362)
3. Kurt Suzuki – .331 (.335)
4. A.J. Ellis – .327 (.325)
5. Matt Wieters – .313 (.308); Nick Hundley – .313 (.304)

Average exit velocity on line drives/fly balls

1. Wilson Ramos – 95.4 mph
2. Yasmani Grandal – 94.5
3. A.J. Ellis – 93.5
4. Matt Wieters, Nick Hundley and Jeff Mathis – 92.2
5. Devin Mesoraco – 92.1

No surprise that Ramos and Grandal are the main Statcast standouts at this position. They’ll be the two top regulars on the market, after all, with Grandal likely to rake in the bigger contract. It helps in Grandal’s case that, in addition to his offensive prowess, he’s regarded as a quality defender – gaffes in Game 1 of the NLCS aside.

First basemen:

Expected weighted on-base average

1. Steve Pearce – .398 (real wOBA: .382)
2. David Freese – .358 (.357)
3. Joe Mauer – .355 (.319)
4. Danny Valencia – .349 (.310)
5. Logan Morrison – .339 (.284)

Average exit velocity on line drives/fly balls

1. Joe Mauer – 94.9 mph
2. Steve Pearce – 94.7
3. Matt Adams – 94.6
4. Danny Valencia and Logan Morrison – 94.5
5. Hanley Ramirez – 94.2

If a team’s looking for a full-time starting first baseman in free agency, it’s probably not going to find one. But at least a couple of the above hitters – namely, Pearce and Freese (if the Dodgers decline his $6MM club option, which is far from certain) – could once again serve as eminently useful part-timers in 2019. Mauer might have had a much better year than his league-average production indicates, meanwhile, though the 35-year-old Twins icon may call it a career in lieu of pursuing another contract.

Second basemen:

Expected weighted on-base average

1. Daniel Murphy – .345 (real wOBA: .338)
2. Daniel Descalso – .333 (.341); Neil Walker – .333 (.292)
3. Jed Lowrie – .332 (.348)
4. DJ LeMahieu – .325 (.323)
5. Marwin Gonzalez – .320 (.318)

Average exit velocity on line drives/fly balls

1. Asdrubal Cabrera – 93.5 mph
2. Marwin Gonzalez – 93.4
3. DJ LeMahieu – 93.2
4. Neil Walker – 92.4
5. Daniel Descalso 92.3

The second base market is loaded with familiar names, but the majority of those players are fresh off underwhelming offensive seasons in terms of actual production. The above Statcast numbers aren’t exactly excellent, either, but Walker looks like a player who could serve as an interesting buy-low candidate over the winter. Walker went without a contract until last March, putting him behind the 8-ball immediately and helping lead to a brutal start with the Yankees. He settled in at the plate as the year went on, however, and ended up seeing quite a bit of time at four positions (second, first, third and right field).

Shortstops:

Expected weighted on-base average

1. Manny Machado – .371 (real wOBA: .377)
2. Asdrubal Cabrera – .322 (.332)
3. Marwin Gonzalez – .320 (.318)
4. Eduardo Escobar – .319 (.346)
5. Jordy Mercer – .314 (.297)

Average exit velocity on line drives/fly balls

1. Manny Machado – 95.1 mph
2. Marwin Gonzalez – 93.4
3. Freddy Galvis – 91.8
4. Eduardo Escobar – 90.8
5. Jordy Mercer – 90.7

Perhaps you’ve heard of the 26-year-old Machado, who’s weeks from signing one of the richest deals in the history of the game. He packs a wallop at the plate, as Statcast helps illustrate. Other than Machado, Escobar and Gonzalez – who didn’t have a great offensive season but is a switch-hitter capable of playing a few positions –  free agency’s not brimming with appealing shortstop options. Of course, that’s assuming the Rangers’ Elvis Andrus doesn’t opt out of the remaining four years and $58MM on his contract.

Third basemen:

Expected weighted on-base average

1. Manny Machado – .371 (real wOBA: .377)
2. David Freese – .358 (.357)
3. Mike Moustakas – .339 (.329)
4. Josh Donaldson – .333 (.345)
5. Adrian Beltre – .329 (.327)

Average exit velocity on line drives/fly balls

1. Josh Donaldson – 96.3 mph
2. Manny Machado – 95.1
3. Pablo Sandoval – 94.3
4. Asdrubal Cabrera – 93.5
5. Marwin Gonzalez – 93.4

Even during an injury-limited season, one which nearly destroyed his trade value and won’t do him any favors in free agency, Donaldson was a notable threat the plate. The 32-year-old still packs a punch – as does the oft-maligned Sandoval (also 32), apparently.

Outfielders:

Expected weighted on-base average

1. Bryce Harper – .386 (real wOBA: .376)
2. Michael Brantley – .362 (.359)
3. Andrew McCutchen – .355 (.347)
4. Nick Markakis – .348 (.345)
5. Curtis Granderson – .341 (.342)

Average exit velocity on line drives/fly balls

1. Bryce Harper – 96.3 mph
2. Jose Bautista – 95.3
3. Andrew McCutchen – 94.1
4. Marwin Gonzalez – 93.4
5. Matt Joyce – 92.8

The soon-to-be 26-year-old Harper will join Machado during the offseason in signing a historic contract. Unsurprisingly, Harper finished top two among all pending free agents in each of the categories we’re using here. For teams that can’t afford him, there will be some established, offensively capable corner outfielders available, as seen above. No one from that group is an ideal center field option, though, and there won’t be many available in free agency. The obvious exception is the Diamondbacks’ A.J. Pollock, who recorded a .326 xwOBA (compared to a .338 real-life mark) and a 93.7 mph average exit velocity on liners and fly balls in 2018. He also posted six Outs Above Average as a defender, per Statcast, making him the best soon-to-be free-agent outfielder in that metric’s view. By the way, Harper (minus-12) and McCutchen (minus-11) were each in the bottom six among all outfielders in OAA in 2018.

Finally, for teams in the market for a pure designated hitter, we’d be remiss not to mention Nelson Cruz. Despite his age (38), Cruz is still a superb offensive player. He placed seventh in the majors in xwOBA (.394, easily beating out his real mark of .361) and in a 13th-place tie with NL MVP hopeful Christian Yelich in average exit velo on liners/fly balls (97.2 mph).